Here's Who to Drop, Pop and Shop: Playoffs, Round 2
For most fantasy football leagues, Week 15 marks the second round of fantasy playoffs.
As you may have learned from last week, playoffs require a slightly different strategy. Now is not the time to gamble on a player that could develop—you need to pick the perfect players to overperform in Week 15, depending on their matchups, injury reports, and various other factors.
A win this week could lead to third, second or even a first place cash prize—or it could mean your frenemy claims your $100 entry fee and your dignity. If you want to cash in next week, here are some drops, pops and shops to make in the second round of fantasy playoffs.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers wide receiver Antonio Brown (81) runs the ball against the defense of Kansas City Chiefs free safety Juan Thornhill (22) during the second half at Raymond James Stadium.© Kim Klement-USA TODAY Sports
When Antonio Brown became a fantasy factor in Week 9, fantasy managers who stashed him early thought their golden egg would hatch soon enough. While there's still a chance to cash in on this investment in Week 15 against the Falcons, the fact is that Brown has been closer to gooseggs than golden ones. In his five weeks of play, he's gotten 25 total receptions, but he hasn't been the number one overall pick he once was in 2017. He might be one of Brady's favorite targets, but so are Mike Evans, Gronk and apparently Scotty Miller.
Good stuff from @NFLSTROUD, which echoes some of the things I pointed out last week here: https://t.co/hlaNbGeBw2 https://t.co/1A1GjgmTcN— Luke Easterling (@Luke Easterling) 1608135839.0
Dallas Cowboys running back Ezekiel Elliott (21) signs to Ohio State fans after the fourth quarter of the NFL Week 14 game between the Cincinnati Bengals and the Dallas Cowboys at Paul Brown Stadium in downtown Cincinnati on Sunday, Dec. 13, 2020.© Sam Greene via Imagn Content Services, LLC
In Week 8, I suggested dropping Ezekiel Elliott, which would have been a fantasy faux pas in any year before 2020. If you kept Elliott, you enjoyed his 18-point game against the Vikings, but every other start has been a disappointment for the former fantasy first-rounder. Recovering from a calf injury, Elliott split carries with Tony Pollard this week and converted 12 carries into a measly 48 yards. Hurt as he heads into a matchup against the fourth best NFL run defense, things look sour for Elliott in Week 15. Consider starting someone else if possible, like David Montgomery, D'Andre Swift, or Melvin Gordon.
A lot of people in the @FFToday facebook group are saying Ezekiel Elliott is the biggest bust of 2020, but he was a… https://t.co/PyZ8PjvPQz— Chris Paul Towers (@Chris Paul Towers) 1608135875.0
Chicago Bears running back David Montgomery (32) during the first quarter against the Detroit Lions at Soldier Field.© Mike Dinovo-USA TODAY Sports
A skyrocketing fantasy star since the bye, David Montgomery is everything you wanted this Bears running back to be. In the last three games, Montgomery has notched nearly 400 yards and four touchdowns, and the trend will likely continue against the Vikings this week. Montgomery is in set-it-and-forget-it territory for the rest of playoffs, so keep him locked in your lineup as long as you last.
Good morning, David Montgomery is a top 10 RB🚨 https://t.co/T7pRNxUVtu— DaWindyCity Productions (@DaWindyCity Productions) 1608136647.0
Detroit Lions running back D'Andre Swift (L) celebrates with wide receiver Mohamed Sanu (R) after scoring a rushing touchdown during the second quarter against the Green Bay Packers at Ford Field.© Raj Mehta-USA TODAY Sports
After a three-week absence, D'Andre Swift is back, and he's here to lead the Lions running back committee without question. Unlike other NFL RB committees (hello San Francisco), the Lions have their committee order in check, meaning Swift is a sure thing when he's healthy. Although he only managed seven carries for 24 yards, a touchdown saved Swift fantasy owners last week, redeeming his value as a playoff-level player. Facing a weak Titans run defense this week, Swift could get even more work if Stafford is injured in Week 15.
@MikeClayNFL Check down city! Man, D'Andre Swift is gonna feast this weekend!— Chris boughman (@Chris boughman) 1608059597.0
New Orleans Saints wide receiver Emmanuel Sanders (17) prior to kickoff against the Atlanta Falcons at the Mercedes-Benz Superdome.© Derick E. Hingle-USA TODAY Sports
Drew Brees, or not Drew Brees—that is the question in Week 15.
Whether Drew breezes back for a surefire shootout against the Chiefs or not, it looks like veteran Emmanuel Sanders will get work no matter what. Disappointingly spotty all season, Sanders has produced decent numbers as a flex option, but Week 15 provides a great matchup for someone Taysom Hill has been targeting as well. Although a touchdown saved him last week, Sanders stands to get some catches this week—after all, he's gotten at least three in the past four games.
Houston Texans wide receiver Chad Hansen (17) makes a catch against the Chicago Bears during the fourth quarter at Soldier Field.© Mike Dinovo-USA TODAY Sports
Another benefactor of a decimated roster, Chad Hansen has swooped in to catch Deshaun Watson's bombs just in time for playoffs. Promoted from the practice squad in Week 13, Hansen has scored 12 catches for 157 yards over the past two weeks. While he's been relegated back to the practice squad as of Monday, it's likely that he could return in Week 15. Upgraded or not, he's worth stashing for the next two weeks just in case. If you're not confident in Hansen, Keke Coutee is the only other Houston receiving option unless Brandin Cooks returns.
For those needing to dig deep, the Texans' Chad Hansen could be a viable flex option based on his recent target sha… https://t.co/YJzOYhRK8p— Athlon Sports (@Athlon Sports) 1608136800.0
Atlanta Falcons wide receiver Russell Gage (83) is unable to catch a pass against Las Vegas Raiders cornerback Trayvon Mullen (27) during the first half at Mercedes-Benz Stadium.© Dale Zanine-USA TODAY Sports
Julio is out, Calvin and Russell are in.
While Calvin Ridley is a definite play as the seventh overall fantasy receiver, fellow Falcons wide receiver Russell Gage is available in 85 percent of ESPN leagues. Gage's week went particularly well because he threw a 39-yard touchdown to Calvin Ridley, but he still has a prime matchup against a Tampa Bay defense that's given up the ninth most yards all season. Although the Buccaneers have talented safeties, Gage's position as WR2 positions him to get solid volume in Week 15.
🚨RECOMENDACIONES WAIVERS WIDE RECEIVERS: • Russell Gage – Falcons (92.4% disponibilidad) • Nelson Agholor – Raide… https://t.co/bzNjxo2thF— The Holy Roller (@The Holy Roller) 1608079857.0
Denver Broncos wide receicver Tim Patrick (81) on the sidelines in the third quarter at Bank of America Stadium.© Bob Donnan-USA TODAY Sports
Fantasy is always a gamble, but there are still sure bets on waivers that deliver on their promise. That was Tim Patrick this season: I suggested picking him up in Week 7, and here he is in the playoffs, averagng 10.2 points per game at the 35th overall receiver. Miraculously, Patrick is still available in 77 percent of ESPN leagues, which is surprising for Denver's most consistent red zone target. Sure, they actually played an NFL game without a quarterback, but Patrick and Melvin Gordon might be the most stable aspects of this shaky offense. Ignore the noise and pick up Patrick if he's still available in your league for Week 15.
@BrandonKobe_ It’s between Nelson, Cole Beasley or Tim Patrick. Tim been eating on my bench all year but I’m just too scared to play em lol— W O R T H ¥ (@W O R T H ¥) 1608137759.0
Cleveland Browns wide receiver Rashard Higgins (82) and Cleveland Browns tight end David Njoku (85) celebrate after a touchdown during the first half against the Tennessee Titans at Nissan Stadium.© Christopher Hanewinckel-USA TODAY Sports
We've all been waiting for Rashard Higgins to live up to his fantasy potential: I've been waiting since Week 8, and Yahoo Sports' Matt Harmon has been waiting for forever, apparently.
Logging on for the 10th season in a row to fulfill my annual duty of declaring Rashard Higgins a must-add in fantasy https://t.co/xesz8AMwjB— Matt Harmon (@Matt Harmon) 1603820284.0
Higgins may have finally arrived in time for playoffs this year: he's gotten six catches and a touchdown in each of his past two games. On a playoff-bound Browns team, Higgins is likely to get some work against the New York Giants in Week 15.
The Best NFL Prop Bet Research Tool Is Finally Here
Until now, there was a void in the industry. An all-in-one prop bet research tool for Over/Under rankings did not exist. Fantasy SP has changed that.
Of course, you could find betting trends on the internet but there wasn’t a place where you could have all the information for every single player on the same page at your fingertips. Well, we wanted to change that. We’ve created the definitive NFL prop bet research tool for pros and newbies alike.
In a typical NFL week, there can be over 1,000 player prop lines available. Traditional player game logs are not optimal for researching player props. Our unique tool allows you to quickly analyze thousands of lines on your phone, tablet, or computer, and find the props with the greatest value. Don’t just bet on the players you like. Become more data-driven with your props research by using Fantasy SP’s Player Prop Over/Under Rankings!
This is the perfect prop bet research tool to make some serious cash. Place informed bets using relevant analytics and increase your chances of seeing your bankroll increase.
All | Pass Yds | Pass TDs| Pass Comp | Pass Att | Rush Att | Rush Yds | Rec | Rec Yds
With our brand-new Player Prop Over/Under Rankings Research Tool, users will be able to filter by tons of critical data points including home vs. away, favorite vs. underdog, player popularity, last few games, indoor vs. outdoor, specific props, specific teams, position rank, opponent rank, and so much more!
Research Prop Bet Betting Example
Okay, enough talk, and let’s get to a simple real-world example of how to use the tool to help you place a bet.
For example, Jared Goff has had some of the most ridiculous home/away splits in 2022.
Goff has a passer rating of 106.9 with 2,217 yards (277.1 yards per game), 20 touchdowns, and 3 interceptions in eight games at home this season. Pretty good, right? On the road, he has a passer rating of 82.5 with 1,387 yards (231.2 yards per game), 3 touchdowns, and 4 interceptions in six games.
As you can see, Goff is averaging 46 more yards per game at home in 2022 entering Week 16. Vegas may try to trick you when Goff is on the road after coming off a massive home game but by using our tool, you won’t be fooled.
Goff has a 5-3 O-U record on his passing yard props at Ford Field this season. While his average line at home on DraftKings is 247 yards, his average result is 277.1 passing yards. Prior to throwing for 250+ yards against the Jets at the Meadowlands in Week 15, he was 2-3 on his passing yards props on the road. His average line on DraftKings on the road was only 10 yards fewer heading into Week 15 yet he averaged a full 50 fewer yards per game (227). This shows a clear pattern that he is much more successful at hitting the over and much more efficient when playing in front of his home crowd. There are countless examples of patterns you can spot using this brand-new prop tool that are even more eye-popping than Goff’s numbers.
How to Find Favorable Prop Bets
The key to placing informed bets is to place bets on clear patterns. Ideally, you want to see a player consistently going over or under. Grab a concise list of potential bets to place and compare to the lines at your favorite operator.
Let’s say you want to place a passing yards prop bet on Tom Brady. You check all the lines at your favorite operator (we suggest
Caesars or FanDuel) and need to put his line into context. How often does he go over? What outcomes occur against an easy matchup? What is his average result? How does he do at home versus on the road?
Using our exclusive Over-Under Rankings, you can utilize our premium filters to find out Brady’s historical prop record at home versus the road is even more volatile than Goff’s splits. (This is good and what we want to see.)
At home, Brady is averaging a whopping 307.3 passing yards and has hit the over in six of seven games heading into Week 15.
On the road, while his average line is only two yards fewer (271.2 to 269.2), he has a 1-5 O-U record and is only averaging 239 passing yards per game.
Fantasy SP has just highlighted a very promising prop bet whenever Brady is at home. Take the over. And when he is on the road, it’s a prime spot to smash the under.
Some players also tend to do much better when their team is the favorite such as running backs late in the fourth quarter when their team needs to kill time. Heading into Week 15, Dalvin Cook had a 7-2 O-U rushing yard record when his team was the favorite (79.9 yards per game). Conversely, when the Vikings were underdogs, he was 1-3 (57.8 yards per game). This is why filtering by favorite or underdog can be a critical data point to help you gain an edge at sportsbooks.
You can also filter by the last few games in case a player has begun to heat up or cool off. These filters will help you nail your bets in very specific scenarios. It’s the perfect tool for situational prop betting.
What the Experts Are Saying
Don’t simply trust our word. We provided a free preview to professional bettors and journalists and this is what they had to say:
“I don’t place my player prop parlays until checking out Fantasy SP’s Prop Bet Rankings. This is the only place where I can get an in-depth historical analysis of every player in the League before placing my wagers!”
Matthew Rumack, Professional Sports Bettor
“This tool provides insight that I haven’t seen anywhere else in the sports betting industry. Fantasy SP has developed something truly unique. The premium filters that allow me to figure out how each player has performed in very specific situations are simply next-level. I will not be placing prop bets before using this tool for research!”
Mark Morales-Smith, Senior Fantasy & Gambling Writer
“The features of this prop research tool are simply awesome. It’s easy to use, easy to understand, and incredibly powerful. There is so much data at your fingertips. This is an essential piece to finding player prop betting value.”
Dan Hickman, Professional Gambling Writer
The dropdowns and filters on this tool are what really make this a game-changing feature. If you only want to see the most popular players on the page, simply slide the popularity to 75% or 100%. If you want to see players’ over-under records and their average results for only home games, simply click Home on the dropdown. If you want to see over-under records for players against teams in the bottom 5 at defending that position, simply click Bottom 5 under Position Rank. Not only can you get all of this insight, but the sliders and dropdowns all work interactively with a user-friendly interface so you can find out how a player is doing in a very specific situation. For example, let’s say Dak Prescott and the Cowboys are hosting the top-five San Francisco 49ers defense and are four-point underdogs. To get a much clearer picture of how Prescott has performed in similar situations, you can check off Home, Underdog, Indoor, and Top 5 under Opponent Rank to get his exact over-under prop historical record in this particular situation. If he is 0-3 on his passing yard prop in this scenario, you may want to smash the under.
NFL prop betting can be overwhelming but this tool makes it easy to research the best bets for novices and seasoned vets alike. Bettors should not be placing their prop bets before doing the necessary research. Now you can do all that research on one page with Fantasy SP’s Player Prop Over/Under Rankings Research Tool! It doesn’t get much better than that.
Stay tuned for our future article on even more in-depth tips and tricks.
France vs Argentina World Cup Final Betting Preview: Can Lionel Messi Capture That Elusive World Cup Title?
Picking up where they left off in 2018, the French National Team led by 23-year-old Kylian Mbappe have found their way back into the finals as they look to be the first back-to-back World Cup Champions since Brazil’s dominant runs in 1958 and 1962. Standing between that incredible feat for the defending champions is Argentina, who currently have their superstar, Lionel Messi, in top form. Messi is finding ways to create passes no one can see and he’s done it multiple times, assisting three goals (tied for the most) throughout the tournament. The legend is also scoring goals of his own and is tied with Kylian Mbappe (5 goals) for Golden Boot honors in this year’s World Cup. Regardless, soccer fans around the world are in for a treat on Sunday at 10:00 AM EST as two of the best players in the world face each other for their country’s World Cup glory.
After winning Group D, France defeated Poland in the Round of 16, England in the quarterfinals, and a strong Morocco team in the semis to advance to the Final. On the other side of the bracket, Argentina won Group C and dispatched Australia in the Round of 16. Messi and the Argentinians were then tested in the quarterfinals, needing a penalty shootout to defeat the Netherlands after blowing a late two-goal lead. Finally, Argentina played perhaps their best match of the tournament against Croatia in the semi-finals, winning 3-0. Now the stage is set for a blockbuster finale between two powerhouses featuring some of the top players in the world.
Note (from FanDuel Sportsbook): No team will play at home during Qatar's World Cup. For betting purposes, FanDuel explains that: “Home Team refers to the team listed first, Away Team refers to the second team listed.”
Argentina (-104) vs. France (-112)
Argentina Keys To Victory
Lionel Messi has played incredibly for Argentina throughout this World Cup. He is leaving opposing defenders in the dust, taking on multiple players at once, dragging them away from his teammates, which is opening up the field for his fellow goal scorers. Every time Messi has the ball at his feet, there seems to be more than one threat. Messi is playing just as well as he always has in 2022. He’s served his team as a playmaker and as a goal-scorer in Qatar. He’s also had some help from Manchester City forward Julian Alvarez who’s scored a handful of goals in this World Cup (including two in Argentina’s decisive victory over Croatia). If Alvarez and Messi are able to link up while on the attack, the depleted French defense and midfield could be in for some trouble.
France Keys To Victory
One of the biggest headlines heading into this World Cup Final is the return of French striker Karim Benzema. The Real Madrid star and winner of this year’s Ballon D’Or hurt his hamstring in one of France’s first practices soon after arriving in Qatar. He flew back to Madrid where he immediately completed his recovery work which was set at three weeks from the time of injury. Right now, Benzema is flying back to Doha and could be starting for France in the final. At the moment, France’s HC Didier Deschamps has declined to comment on whether or not he will be including KB9 in the starting lineup. France’s ball movement has been excellent throughout the tournament, but their key to victory against Argentina will be efficient defense. Over the last few games, France’s defense seems to have slowed down. Not only will they need to stop Messi, but they will need to turn defensive stops into counterattacks. Mbappe and Olivier Giroud (four goals thus far in the tournament) will need to be electric on offense and test the Argentinian keeper. Antoine Griezmann may be an x-factor for France as he has three assists in this World Cup and was inches away from scoring against Morocco.
It’s only fitting that Lionel Messi will finally hoist the World Cup trophy in his last World Cup match. Expect him to score a goal and lead his team to victory in a tightly contested battle.
The Pick: Argentina (-104)
World Cup Final Best Prop Bets
Kylian Mbappe: To Score Or Give Assist (+100)
Mbappé has been relatively quiet over France’s last few games. Still, he is the main wing on France’s team who is capable of breaking down defenses through his skillful technique and ridiculous speed. He currently is tied with Messi for the most goals in the 2022 World Cup. If he isn’t able to score in this game, then expect him to at least make an assist. For France to win this one, the 23-year-old will need to have a big game.
Lionel Messi: Anytime Goalscorer (+190)
Messi has stepped up his performance big time this World Cup. If you have watched Argentina play in this tournament, you know how crucial of a role Messi has played in the team’s success. He is tied for the most goals in the tournament with Mbappe and has a great chance of putting the ball in the net at some point during Sunday’s big match. This is a particularly great prop to target since Messi takes all of Argentina’s penalty shots and has converted four-of-five throughout the tournament.
Fantasy SP has worked diligently to bring you next-level sports betting analytics, prop betting tools, public betting splits, and so much more! Become an Edge+ member today!
Here’s Why December Is The Best Month To Join FanDuel
Calling every sports fan across the globe! The best month for all things sports is here: December. NFL and CFB are getting into the thick of things — I mean, we are finally not seeing Alabama and Clemson in the CFP, not to mention both the NBA and NHL are underway and college basketball just tipped off!
Despite all of these different sporting events going on, the World’s biggest Sporting event is down to the Semifinals, the World Cup.
Although Soccer is the World's most popular sport, it still struggles to gain support in the US. However, every 4 years Soccer takes the country by storm and this year, and these last few games are going to be amazing.
Let us introduce you to your new go-to app, FanDuel Sportsbook. It’s the place to be for not only the usual sports, but for this year's World Cup!
FanDuel Sportsbook is providing a multitude of features with a few market differentiators.
- World Cup Winner
- Who will win the Golden Boot (the award for the top goal scorer of the World Cup)
- Highest scoring Group
- And more
- Popular Markets - outside of the normal Moneyline, Spread & Over/Under lines, FanDuel will also be offering:
- Anytime Goal Scorer
- First Goal Scorer
- Shots on Goal
- Correct Score
- Number of Corner Kicks
- Half-Time Result
- Tournament Goal Scorer Parlay Builder - build your own tournament-long Goal Scorer parlays with your favorite players from every team.
- Daily Specials:
- Highest scoring team of the day
- Total daily goals
- Player specials
- And More!
- Live Parlays
Out of all the betting apps we’ve used, signing up for FanDuel Sportsbook is also the easiest. Simply download the app and create an account by providing an email, credit card, and SS# — that’s to protect your winnings and ensure you're not a sporting professional.
FanDuel is undoubtedly the best site/app to parlay across multiple sports. It’s designed for bettors at any stage. The clear interface is ideal for beginners and you can make a bet in just a few clicks! It’s complete with a number of betting guides that explain the rules and resources to safely bet.
One of the best parts is that once the game ends, you can cash out your winnings right away. No minimum, no wait.
There’s also the incredible New User Offer: sign up with FanDuel Sportsbook and get up to $1000 in Free Bets if you lose your first bet!
Their app has everything you need — from tutorials to real-time game scores. Get amped for the World Cup with FanDuel Sportsbook. Enhance your Sportsember by downloading the FanDuel Sportsbook app today!