Dak Prescott
Week 13 of the NFL season kicks off tomorrow night with the New Orleans Saints hosting the Dallas Cowboys at Caesars Superdome. The Cowboys opened as 5-point favorites, but after much of the early money was bet on the struggling New Orleans Saints, the spread has dropped to 4.5 points.
Both of these teams have recently fallen on hard times and are trending in the completely wrong direction. Despite winning a game with Dak Prescott injured, Dallas has lost three of their last four games since Prescott returned to the lineup. They are coming off a heartbreaking overtime loss on Thanksgiving to the Las Vegas Raiders. Meanwhile, after starting the season 5-2, the Saints have dropped four consecutive games with Trevor Siemian under center. It will be interesting to see how the Saints fare as their postseason chances are dwindling.
Betting on the NFL makes games even more exciting among fans. Monitoring public betting trends is one of the most pivotal tools used by professional handicappers to find the top wagers in the sports betting marketplace. Public betting trends allow you to track which teams the public is chasing and which teams professional gamblers are high on each and every week. Whether you want to tail or fade the public, knowing the public betting trends (bet percentages and money percentages) is pivotal when determining which teams to back. So without further ado, let’s take a look at who the public likes in Week 13’s Thursday Night Football matchup, and where you should place your wagers.
Note: The lines and public betting trends are always changing so be sure to check out FantasySP for the latest odds and trends.
Dallas Cowboys at New Orleans Saints (+4.5)
The Saints and Cowboys tend to play very competitive games against one another. In their last three meetings, each game has been decided by one possession. The Saints defeated the Cowboys the last time these two franchises met in 2019 (12-10). However, the Cowboys are clearly the superior team this season and are 7-3 against the spread in their last 10 games while the Saints are 4-6 against the spread over that same timeframe. So will Dallas snap their five-game losing streak on Thursday Night Football?
Although there were reports about Ezekiel Elliott being rested this week, Jerry Jones said he expects Zeke to be fed a sizable workload. It appears that although Tony Pollard will continue to get touches in this backfield, Elliott will serve as the lead-back in Week 13. The Cowboys’ offense has been very up and down over the last month. However, Dallas’ Thanksgiving day loss cannot be blamed on Prescott and the offense as they produced more than 400 yards and put 33 points up on the scoreboard. Plus, the Cowboys should get starting wide receivers Amari Cooper and CeeDee Lamb back from injury this week. Although the Saints have a solid defense, they did just allow Josh Allen and the Bills to post 36 points on Thanksgiving.
The Saints’ offense really struggled on Thanksgiving against the Bills. This was largely due to the absence of running backs, Alvin Kamara and Mark Ingram. Both backs are expected to return this week, and Taysom Hill is clearly an upgrade at the quarterback position over Siemian. However, New Orleans still lacks playmakers at the wide receiver and tight end position. With tight end Adam Trautman injured, the Saints will have to rely on Tre’Quan Smith and Deonte Harris to get open against the Cowboys’ 26th-ranked defense.
Dallas’ defense has some elite talents such as youngsters Micah Parson and Trevon Diggs, but they are still allowing opponents to gain close to 370 total yards of offense per game. But the Saints’ 27th-ranked offense will be a welcomed opponent for a defensive unit that just allowed Derek Carr to lead the Raiders to 36 points without the services of tight end Darren Waller.
Overall, both of these teams are looking to get back on track. The Cowboys have more wiggle room due to their 7-4 record and weak division, however, a loss could throw this team into complete chaos.
The public thinks that Dallas will cover the spread as 68% of the bets placed on the spread are backing Dallas and a whopping 75% of the money wagered has the Cowboys covering the 4.5-point spread. However, professional gamblers like the odds on the Saints upsetting the Cowboys outright. Despite 70% of moneyline bets being on the Cowboys, 53% of the money is on the Saints. I’m following the smart money here and tailing the sharps. While I’m not quite comfortable taking the Saints outright, I think they have enough talent on both sides of the ball to keep this game close. I’m also going with the “smart money” on the over/under. While only 56% of bets are on the over, an eye-popping 78% of the money expects this game to exceed the 47.5-point total.
Picks: Saints (+4.5) and Over 47.5 points
Prediction: 27-24 Cowboys
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While many Americans will be preparing for Black Friday, perhaps just as many will be betting on the three NFL games on Thanksgiving. The Chicago Bears will be facing the winless Detroit Lions, the Raiders travel to Jerry World to take on the Dallas Cowboys, and the Buffalo Bills face the New Orleans Saints at the Superdome.
Some of you may be sick of the Lions playing on Thanksgiving, and it's understandable considering they have yet to win a game this season. And if you aren't a huge fan of your family at the dinner table, saying that you need to go watch the Lions game to avoid a conversation about what you're grateful for or politics isn't a great excuse. However, if you place a wager on the game, that's the only excuse you need.
Last week, by looking at the public betting trends, we nailed all three of our recommended bets, including a bonus bet. Monitoring public betting trends is one of the most pivotal tools used by professional handicappers to find the top wagers in the sports betting marketplace. Public betting trends allow you to track which teams the public is chasing and which teams professional gamblers are high on each and every week.
Whether you want to tail or fade the public, knowing the public betting trends (bet percentages and money percentages) is pivotal when determining which teams to back. So without further ado, let's take a look at the public betting trends for the three games on Thanksgiving.
Note: The lines and public betting trends are always changing so be sure to check out FantasySP for the latest odds and trends.
Thanksgiving Day Public Betting Trends
Chicago Bears at Detroit Lions (+3)
Although the Bears are just 1-4 against the spread in their last five games, they have won a whopping eight of their last nine games as the favorite. Meanwhile, Detroit is 0-13-1 straight up in their last 14 games as underdogs with an average defeat of 13.07 points.
The spread was originally 3.5 points but it dropped to 3 points with Justin Fields looking doubtful for the first game on Thanksgiving day. Andy Dalton will take over as the starter and he actually looked fairly good in Chicago's close loss to the Baltimore Ravens in Week 11. But the Bears aren't the only team that may be missing their starting quarterback. After missing Week 11 with an oblique injury, Tim Boyle will reportedly start for the Lions. Detroit is dealing with several other injuries outside of Goff on the offensive side of the ball. The Lions are now missing three starting offensive linemen and they don't have any noteworthy receivers. D'Andre Swift and T.J. Hockenson should see a ton of touches on Thursday. However, Chicago is dealing with many injuries of their own in addition to Fields. Allen Robinson is highly questionable with a hamstring injury, meaning Darnell Mooney will continue to be peppered with targets. Marquise Goodwin could also see more snaps if A-Rob is unable to suit up. Plus, a defense that looked pretty scary at the beginning of the season will be missing All-Pro pass rusher Khalil Mack, who is out for the season, and Akiem Nicks and Eddie Jackson may not be active on a short week after missing Week 11.
Both teams have underperformed this season but the Lions have been atrocious on Thanksgiving in recent years. Favorites playing on the road at Ford Field are 10-2 against the spread on Thanksgiving. Plus, the Bears have won six of their last seven games against Detroit, including two games on Thanksgiving.
A common strategy in sports betting is fading the public, which is exactly what I'd recommend in this clash between two terrible teams. Although 92% of the money line bets are on the Lions, I expect the Bears to win this game fairly comfortably now that David Montgomery is at full strength. And I actually think Chicago might be better with Dalton under center. And even though 72% of the money on the spread favors Detroit, I just can't imagine Tim Boyle keeping this game within a field goal. This is the ideal spot to make a contrarian wager.
Pick(s): Bears ML and Bears (-3)
Prediction: 23-14 Bears
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Las Vegas Raiders at Dallas Cowboys (-7)
Dallas is coming off their worst performance of the season after getting absolutely shut down by the Kansas City Chiefs. However, Dallas is 8-2 against the spread this season, 6-1 against the spread in it's last seven home games, and the Raiders have lost all three games this season against teams with winning records by an average deficit of 17.67 points. After starting the season 5-2, the Raiders have lost three consecutive games and have not looked good at all during that span. They were upset by a 3-7 Giants team, were manhandled to the tune of 41-14 against the Chiefs, and most recently lost 32-13 against the Cincinnati Bengals. Vegas has only scored 43 points over that three-game span. The Raiders offense just doesn't look very good and Derek Carr has really struggled to get tight end Darren Waller involved.
Although the Cowboys will be without Amari Cooper for the second consecutive week, CeeDee Lamb is on track to play after exiting the Cowboys' Week 11 loss to the Chiefs with a concussion.
https://twitter.com/jonmachota/status/1463543514025844744
This looks like a bounce-back game for Dak Prescott and the Cowboys' offense. The Raiders are tied with the Jaguars with the seventh-most points allowed per game this season (26.2 points). Although the Bears-Lions game will most likely be a low-scoring affair, I'm expecting tons of points in this matchup. Despite just 52% of bets being placed on the over, 63% of the money wagered is on this game eclipsing the 51.5-point total. The "smart money" is on the over in this game. Not only are Prescott and Lamb going to dominate the Raiders' secondary, but Ezekiel Elliott is going to have a massive game against a Raiders front seven that allows over 100 rushing yards and 1.2 touchdowns per game to opposing running backs, equaling the seventh-most fantasy points allowed per game to running backs.
Some bettors might be a bit reluctant to lay the seven points with the Cowboys, but I'm expecting a high-scoring blowout on Thanksgiving.
Pick(s): Over 51.5 points and Cowboys (-7)
Prediction: 34-20 Cowboys
Buffalo Bills at New Orleans Saints (+6)
Recent trends suggest that the Saints are going to cover the spread in this game. The Bills are just 1-3-1 against the spread in their last five contests while New Orleans is 9-1-1 against the spread in their last 11 games as the underdog. Not to mention, the Saints have won five consecutive games against Buffalo by an average of 21 points and they have covered the spread in each of those matchups.
Although 68% of bets on the spread are backing the Bills, 52% of the money is backing New Orleans. While I expect the Bills to narrowly escape with a victory, I think the Saints will play this game down to the wire, especially with Alvin Kamara expected to be back in the lineup.
Buffalo has been incredibly unpredictable this season. They have terrible losses to the Jacksonville Jaguars and Indianapolis Colts, but they have also put up some huge point totals in other contests. Buffalo has lost three of their last five games and Josh Allen has thrown six interceptions during that span. It's hard to know which Bills team will show up on Thanksgiving. I don't think that Allen and the Bills will struggle as they did last week, but this won't be an easy task against one of the elite defenses in the NFL. The Saints allow the 10th-fewest points and 10th-fewest yards per game this season. Meanwhile, the Bills allow the fewest yards per game and the second-fewest points per game. This game has the under written all over it, especially since despite only 34% of bets being placed on the under, 54% of the money is anticipating this game to not exceed the 45.5-point total. Don't forget that Thanksgiving night games have gone under in 10-of-14 seasons, including six straight. I expect this to be a defensive battle, with the Bills winning on a last-second field goal, failing to cover the spread.
Pick(s): Under 45.5 points and Saints (+6)
Prediction: 20-17 Bills
FantasySP is developing betting tools to provide users with something nobody else in the industry can offer. Upgrade to an Edge+ account today and get 50% off your first year at just $99.99 for the year. After a year, the price is going to increase to $199. Lock in your special early-bird deal today!
There are more fantasy football companies than you can imagine these days. After analyzing the information and tools offered by dozens of popular websites, I decided to take the leap and try FantasySP. Just in the nick of time, too - because when stacked up against other teams, my draft was subpar.
If I wanted to stand a chance this year I had to hit the ground running with the waiver wire and strategize potential trades to improve some of the holes on my team. I was a bit skeptical about how exactly FantasySP would help me accomplish this better than I could on my own. But I suspected that expert tools and getting an extra set of opinions couldn't hurt.
Mastering the Waiver Wire After a Subpar Draft
Prior to the season starting, FantasySP's Waiver Wire tool advised me to pick up Jacksonville Jaguars undrafted free agent James Robinson after Leonard Fournette was waived and eventually signed with the Bucs. Since I was thin at the running back position, I took a chance. As any fantasy player knows, that move paid off significantly. Robinson finished the season within the top-10 running backs and I'd gotten him off the wire for no cost at all! I was so impressed by how valuable these tools can be when used correctly.
Due to the myriad of injuries over the first few weeks of the season, adding the right players from the waiver wire is critical to any fantasy manager's success. As soon as Christian McCaffrey went down in Week 1, FantasySP's Waiver Wire tool advised me to add Panthers' backup Mike Davis. Davis immediately became a focal point of my roster. After just a few weeks of the season, both of my starting running backs were Waiver Wire pickups, not your typical recipe for success, but it was working!
My team was 3-1 after the first quarter of the season. Not only did this wonderful site recommend these two stud running backs, but the Waiver Wire tool also suggested I take a chance on Chargers' rookie signal-caller Justin Herbert. Now, 3 of my 10 starters were undrafted, yet I was still dominating.
Utilizing the Start/Sit Tool to Win Weekly Matchups
But the question fantasy owners ask most during the week is "Who should I start?" FantasySP is the one-stop show that helps you manage your lineup from the draft all the way until you win that coveted trophy! FantasySP uses data from real fantasy leagues to help you make the most informed decision.
By Week 5, it was time to face off with the only undefeated team in the league. I was struggling with whether to start Mike Davis or Kareem Hunt. That's where the Start/Sit tool came in handy. When comparing the two players, the Start/Sit tool revealed that 66.7% of other fantasy players with both Davis and Hunt on their team were starting Davis. Nobody else in the industry is providing that kind of context.
Still, I needed more information before making my final decision. To determine the best play, the Start/Sit tool incorporates several factors including recent stats, expert rankings, matchups, injury history, projections, and much more. This tool ensures that you have access to all relevant data to help you make an accurate, knowledge-based, and data-driven decision. Turns out, the tool was accurate, as Davis went off for just south of 30 fantasy points! I dethroned the undefeated team and moved into first place myself!
Making Sweet Deals With the Trade Analyzer
Despite losing my first-round pick - Michael Thomas - to injury, I was in first place. However, with Thomas coming back from injury I sensed it could be the perfect time to strike a deal. So I used the Trade Analyzer to see if I could increase my odds of winning the championship.
FantasySP's Trade Analyzer will make sure you're offering trades that benefit your team but aren't so egregiously unfair to the other owners that they won't make a deal with you for the rest of the season.
With that in mind, I found a deal that matched up the trade values of the players and sent Michael Thomas and Kareem Hunt packing for Justin Jefferson and tight end T.J. Hockenson. (Evan Engram was just not pulling his weight at the tight end position). Don't be that guy who constantly offers unbalanced trades. Formulate deals that will actually be accepted and improve your roster at the same time!
This trade solidified my spot as the top team in the league.
A Playoff Run for the Ages - Using the Fantasy Assistant Tool
Getting to the playoffs wasn't difficult after FantasySP advised me on the best in-season management through the Fantasy Assistant tool. Once I uploaded my league to the site, the Fantasy Assistant made all the recommended in-season moves based on real data. No longer did I have to spend the time combing through the waiver wire or spending hours researching the best trades. FantasySP did the work for me. I finished the regular season with a 10-3 record. But now, it was win or go home in the playoffs.
In Week 14, I had a difficult decision to make in whether to start Mike Davis or James Conner. Utilizing the Start/Sit tool once again, the data pointed towards Davis. I got this far because I trusted the site. The payoff was massive. Compared to Conner's 1.8, Davis compiled 26.3 fantasy points. Had I started Conner, my season would have been over. Instead, I was off to the semi-finals.
I crushed my opponent in Week 15 and earned a spot in the championship game. All week, I went back and forth between whether I should start Robby Anderson or James Conner at the flex spot. Conner had struggled all season but he was Pittsburgh's bell-cow running back. FantasySP's Start/Sit tool revealed that 70% of other managers with both Anderson and Conner on their roster were starting Conner. Again, I trusted the tool that had helped me all season.
Although Anderson had a strong outing with 16.9 fantasy points, Conner scored a touchdown and finished with 17.6 fantasy points. You might say that 0.7 points makes no difference. But when you win the championship by 0.3 points, it makes all the difference in the world. After a long and grueling season, I was champion of the world!
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I can't wait to use FantasySP's outstanding, state-of-the-art tools to gain an edge ahead of my 2021 draft. I don't anticipate making a ton of in-season moves this year because FantasySP's Draft Assistant will help me dominate on draft day!
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