Stephen Curry, Golden State Warriors
In Game 3 of the Eastern Conference Finals, Bam Adebayo's 31-point and 10-rebound double-double led the Miami Heat to a 109-103 victory over the Celtics on the road. That was followed by a dominant second-half performance by Stephen Curry and Andrew Wiggins who led the Warriors to a 3-0 lead in the Western Conference Finals.
Tonight, we'll get the first of these two matchups. Boston will look to come back in their second home game against a Heat team that is clearly not at 100% healthy. Tyler Herro has been ruled out for Game 4 while Kyle Lowry remains questionable. Here are some of the best bets for tonight's and tomorrow's big Game 4s.
Please note that all odds and lines are from FanDuel Sportsbook and were accurate at 3:30 PM EST. Be sure to check for line movement or odd changes.
ECF Game 4: Miami Heat at Boston Celtics -7 (MIA Leads 2-1)
In Game 4, the Celtics rallied back from double-digits to make things interesting in the fourth quarter. However, Boston conceded Game 3 to the Miami Heat 109-103. On Sunday, Bam Adebayo was getting everything he wanted down low. He finished with 31 points, 10 boards, six assists, four steals, and one block. Ime Udoka will need to boost the presence of his big men down low, perhaps by extending Daniel Theis’ minutes or having him share the floor more with Al Horford. The major reason for which the Heat are considered the seven-point underdogs for tonight’s game is injuries. Tyler Herro has already been ruled out for Game 4, and the Heat have four or five other players in their lineup currently listed as questionable. This includes Max Struss, Kyle Lowry, Jimmy Butler, and P.J. Tucker. Butler is dealing with knee inflammation which sidelined him for the second half of Game 3.
Even if all of the players in the Heat’s rotation are good to go tonight (outside of Herro), Boston has not lost back-to-back home games since late October. Plus, Jaylen Brown is shooting much better than he did earlier in the postseason. In fact, he’s elevated his shooting to 50% from the field through the 2021-22 playoffs through 14 games played. Expect Boston to bounce back big in Game 4, with multiple players on the Miami Heat not at full strength.
The Pick: Boston Celtics -7 (-110)
WCF Game 4: Golden State Warriors at Dallas Mavericks -1 (GSW Leads 3-0)
Well, it’s looking like the Golden State Warriors are returning to the NBA Finals. With the emergence of Jordan Poole late this season and into the postseason, Andrew Wiggins’ First-Team All-Star season, and Klay Thompson’s return to basketball, Golden State has been simply phenomenal. Golden State is simply that good this year, with anyone on the team capable of stepping up. Stephen Curry erupted in Game 3, while it was Andrew Wiggins that caught fire in the second half of Game 4. Any given night, the Warriors have one or two guys who they can count on for scoring approximately 25+ points. Considering the Mavericks' struggles this round, particularly behind the three-point line, bettors should go with the Warriors as the slight underdog. Teams get swept sometimes. Just ask the Brooklyn Nets. The Warriors will bring out the brooms and sweep the Mavericks as they punch their ticket to the NBA Finals Tuesday night.
The Pick: Golden State Warriors ML -104
NBA Player Props
Golden State Warriors at Dallas Mavericks -1 (GSW Leads 3-0)
Prop #1: Stephen Curry, Over 27.5 Points
Stephen Curry has scored 31 points and 32 points over the last two games. He’s done so by converting at least 50% from the field in each contest. It makes sense that he would score at least 28 points in a series-clinching victory tomorrow night. Curry is averaging 27.1 PPG on 45.9% this postseason but has certainly put up more points and done so more efficiently over the last few games.
Prop #2: Luka Doncic, Over 3.5 Threes
Luka has drained nine three-pointers over the last two games. He’s knocked down at least four threes in three of his last four contests. Facing elimination and hoping to not let down the home crowd in back-to-back home playoff games, Doncic will convert at least four baskets from downtown in Game 4.
Tyler Herro (Left), Bam Adebayo (Right), Miami Heat
Jimmy Butler, Tyler Herro, Bam Adebayo, and the Miami Heat held their own against the Celtics in Game 1 of the Eastern Conference Finals. Likewise, Andrew Wiggins and Stephen Curry led the Warriors to a 112-87 blowout over Luka Doncic and the Dallas Mavericks. Tonight, the Celtics play their second game on the road against the Heat. On Friday night, the Mavericks will look to bounce back after shooting horrifically in Game 1.
Let’s take a look at the best bets for the two NBA Conference Final Game 2 matchups set for 8:30 PM EST. tonight and 9:00 PM EST. tomorrow night.
Please note that all odds and lines are from FanDuel Sportsbook and were accurate at 4:30 PM EST. Be sure to check for line movement or odd changes.
Best Bets of the Night
Game: Boston Celtics at Miami Heat -2 (MIA Leads 1-0)
After a nail-biting series with the Milwaukee Bucks that the Celtics won in grandiose fashion, Boston conceded Game 1 of the Eastern Conference Finals to the Miami Heat. Tonight, they play Game 2 of the series at the FTX Arena and hope to bounce back from Tuesday’s 11-point loss. One of the principal reasons for their defeat in Game 1 was the absence of Marcus Smart (foot sprain) and Al Horford (health & safety protocols). It remained a relatively close game until the third quarter in which the Celtics were outscored 14-3 to begin the second half. Derrick White filled in for Marcus Smart and was terribly inefficient from the field. He scored three points (1-4 FG) and had four assists in 29 minutes filling in for the Defensive Player of the Year. In contrast, Max Struss and Gabe Vincent did a terrific job of filling in for Kyle Lowry, combining for 28 points on 9-of-19 shooting. In addition, Tyler Herro had a good night with a pivotal 18 points (7-15 FG) off the bench. Fortunately for the Celtics, both Smart and Horford are expected to return tonight.
Head Coach Ime Udoka indicated to reporters today that Smart was probable to play this evening. Horford was cleared of health and safety protocols today making him available for tonight’s contest. For those of you who have watched the Celtics this postseason, Horford and Smart have upped their play and have been absolutely integral to the team’s success. Tonight, let’s take the Boston Celtics to take a game on the road in the same fashion that they took two road games from the Bucks in the last series.
The Pick: Boston Celtics ML +108
Tonight's Best NBA Player Props
Game: Boston Celtics at Miami Heat -2 (MIA Leads 1-0)
Prop#1: Gabe Vincent Over 9.5 Points
Prop#2: Al Horford Over 9.5 Points
Tomorrow Night's Best NBA Bet
Game: Dallas Mavericks at Golden State -6 (GSW Leads 1-0)
Dallas was annihilated by Golden State in Game 1 of the Western Conference Finals. This comes after the Mavs blew out the Phoenix Suns on the road in impressive fashion, punching their ticket to the next round of the playoffs for a series against the Warriors. Golden State shot an impressive 56.1% from the field in the opening game and finished with 112 points. Just as important as the offensive production, Golden State clamped down on defense. The Warriors contained Luka Doncic, who converted just six of his 18 field goals on his way to 20 points. Andrew Wiggins did an excellent job guarding the young playmaker. Luka's teammates didn't help out much either as the Mavericks shot 36% from the field in Game 1, and 22.9% from downtown (11-48 3PT FG) for just 87 points on the night.
While I think the Warriors will win again on Friday night, expect the Mavericks to keep things more interesting after such an abysmal night shooting from the field. Dallas will make the adjustments needed to make this a competitive Game 2 in the Bay area.
The Pick: Dallas Mavericks +6 (-110)
Fantasy SP has worked diligently to bring you next-level sports betting analytics, prop betting tools, public betting splits, and so much more! Become an Edge+ member today before the price doubles!
Klay Thompson, Golden State Warriors
Klay Thompson is coming off one of his signature Game 6 performances. Thompson dropped his second-highest point total of the postseason, punching Golden State's ticket to the Western Conference Finals after defeating the Memphis Grizzlies in six games. In the elimination game, Thompson led the team with 30 points (11-22 from the field and 8-14 from beyond the arc), eight boards, two assists, and three blocks. Considering the multitude of injuries he has fought back from and the adversity he has faced, it's quite amazing that the five-time All-Star has converted at least 50% of his three-point shots in three of his last four outings. He seems to be in great form entering this pivotal series with the Mavericks.
Dallas stunned the top-seeded Phoenix Suns and reigning Western Conference champs on the road in Game 7, 123-90, and earned a trip to the Western Conference Finals. Let's see if Thompson can remain scorching hot as Stephen Curry and the Dubs host Luka Doncic and the Dallas Mavericks in Game 1 of the Western Conference Finals tonight. Now, let's take a look at some of the best bets and player props to consider for tonight’s big matchup!
Please note that all odds and lines are from FanDuel Sportsbook and were accurate at 3:30 PM EST. Be sure to check for line movement or odd changes.
Best Bets of the Night
Bet #1: Golden State Warriors -5 (-110)
Following a tough loss in Game 5 to the Grizzlies despite Ja Morant’s absence from the lineup, the Warriors bounced back and closed the series at home in Game 6. They take on the Dallas Mavericks, who’ve been absolutely unbelievable on defense. Changes made to the Mavs’ rotation by Jason Kidd worked flawlessly against Chris Paul, Devin Booker, and the Suns in the previous round. One surprise for Dallas this postseason has been former New York Knicks lottery pick, Frank Ntilikina. He's a player who has stepped up immensely this postseason, especially on defense. Throughout the series, Ntilikina held Chris Paul and Devin Booker to a combined 3-of-40 shooting from the field when he guarded them.
It will be interesting to see if Jason Kidd keeps his minutes up, or perhaps increases them after what was truly an astonishing defensive performance against the Suns. Unfortunately for the Mavericks, the Golden State Warriors have four efficient scorers who will need to be contained. The Warriors will cover the spread tonight and win by more than five points on their home floor.
Bet #2: Over 214.5 Total Points (-110)
Dallas scored an impressive 123 points in Game 7, and they did so on the road. I expect them to reach at least 110 points in Game 1 of the Western Conference Finals. The Warriors shot on and off throughout their series against the Memphis Grizzlies. Nonetheless, they averaged 111 PPG in their series against Memphis (666 total points scored by the Warriors over six games). Both teams play a style of basketball that stresses ball movement to find an open man beyond the arc. When Dallas or Golden State shoot 40%-45% from the field, they can score in the hundreds because of the high volume of shots they take. Dallas started taking more shots and playing at a faster pace in the second half of their series against Phoenix. By the half in Game 7, Dallas was up 57-27. In the game, the Mavericks went 19-of-39 from downtown (48.9%). Even more impressive was Dallas’ 56.8% shooting from the field. Although the Warriors are one of the best defensive teams in the league, a 214.5-point Over / Under for tonight’s game is quite low. Smash the Over.
Learn more about our fantasy basketball tools and premium products!
NBA Player Props of the Night
Prop #1: Jordan Poole Over 1.5 Threes (-174)
Jordan Poole has finally cooled down after a stretch of three 20-point games against the Grizzlies. Over the last three contests, Poole has only hit two or more three-pointers in one contest. Over those last three games, he shot a combined 3-of-17 from downtown. While Poole has been highly inefficient over the last few games, he’ll hit at least two three-pointers in Game 1 tonight. The odds of this prop reflect how likely it is to happen. Although Poole isn't seeing as high a usage rate as when Curry and Thompson were injured during the regular season, Poole should still see plenty of open looks in the 25+ minutes he should log tonight. Given that Dallas will most likely try to stop Curry and Thompson from beating them, Poole should see a few wide-open looks. He will knock down at least two from deep range tonight.
Prop #2: Klay Thompson Over 20.5 Points (-112)
Klay Thompson has averaged just about 20.5 points since he came back this regular season. Throughout the postseason, he’s played strong and for the most part, been efficient from the field. Through 11 games in this postseason, Thompson is averaging 20.4 PPG on 45% shooting from the field. I like him to hit the over here in his first Western Conference Final matchup in three years. After getting his swagger back and dropping 30 points to eliminate the Grizzlies last round, Thompson should have all. the confidence in the world heading into Game 1 in the bay.
Fantasy SP has worked diligently to bring you next-level sports betting analytics, prop betting tools, public betting splits, and so much more! Become an Edge+ member today before the price doubles!
Marcus Smart, Boston Celtics
While Jimmy Butler and the Miami Heat have had a few days off since taking out the Philadelphia 76ers, the Celtics only finished their seven-game series on Sunday. With Marcus Smart considered questionable for tonight's contest, the Celtics could struggle to steal Game 1 on the road against the Heat.
Tonight, Jayson Tatum and Jaylen Brown head to Miami to play Game 1 of a highly anticipated Eastern Conference series against the Miami Heat. Let's take a look at today's best bets and player props.
Please note that all odds and lines are from FanDuel Sportsbook and were accurate at 3:30 PM EST. Be sure to check for line movement or odd changes.
Best Bets Of The Night
Though the Heat comfortably won their series against the Philadelphia 76ers 4-2, bad offensive performances in consecutive games contributed to their losses. After eventually squeezing past Joel Embiid and the Sixers with back-to-back victories in Game 5 and Game 6, the Heat could struggle in Game 1 in front of their home fans.
Unfortunately for Miami, Kyle Lowry will be out for Game 1 of this series due to his ongoing hamstring injury. While he’s been able to create plays for the Heat, he has not played efficiently at any point throughout these playoffs. That said, Lowry hasn’t been healthy but Miami's success this postseason has largely been achieved without Lowry running the point. There is some concern for the Boston Celtics that they may be without Marcus Smart for Game 1, which could truly hurt them if that comes to fruition. In Game 7, Smart sustained a foot sprain, forcing the Celtics to list him as questionable yesterday afternoon.
Smart has been instrumental to Boston’s lockdown defense throughout the playoffs. If the Celtics are forced to suit up without Smart in Game 1 despite the return of Robert Williams, Boston will struggle to maintain Miami's top offensive weapons such as Jimmy Butler, Bam Adebayo, and Tyler Herro. Expect the Heat to take the first game of the Eastern Conference Finals comfortably if the Defensive Player of the Year is sidelined. If Smart is able to suit up, it's anyone's game.
Bet 1: Miami Heat, -2 (-110)
The Boston Celtics have scored at least 100 points in every game this postseason. They aren’t the concern as much as the Heat, who scored an atrocious 79 points against the 76ers in Game 3. Tonight should be a high-scoring affair. Though the Miami Heat conceded two games of their series against the Philadelphia 76ers due to abysmal offense, we know they are capable of scoring big. They put up 119 points in Game 2, and 120 points in Game 5. This could especially be the case if Marcus Smart is out of the Celtics’ rotation, which will hurt Boston’s defense. Even if he does play, he will likely be less efficient on the floor as a result of his foot sprain from Game 7 on Sunday.
Bet 2: Over 204 Total Points (-110)
Learn more about our fantasy basketball tools and premium products!
NBA Player Props of the Night
Prop #1: Grant Williams Over 8.5 Points
Grant Williams hit seven three-pointers in Game 7 against the Bucks. He attempted a whopping 18 threes, which might be more impressive and unexpected. Ime Udoka has kept him on the floor for big minutes throughout the postseason due to the energy he brings on both sides of the floor. He’s clearly capable of scoring but of also being physical on defense.
Prop #2: Victor Oladipo Over 9.5 Points
With Kyle Lowry out, Victor Oladipo will likely get 25+ minutes on the floor tonight in Game 1. He missed the vast majority of the regular season but returned in March and has been surprisingly efficient. Coach Erik Spoelstra has primarily found Oladipo effective as a ball-handler and scorer throughout the postseason while Lowry has been unhealthy. Oladipo has scored in double-figures in four of the last seven games and will log above-average minutes tonight in Game 1 with Gabe Vincent starting for Kyle Lowry and Dipo coming off the bench for meaningful minutes.
Prop #3: Bam Adebayo 15+ Pts / Miami To Win (+186)
Fantasy SP has worked diligently to bring you next-level sports betting analytics, prop betting tools, public betting splits, and so much more! Become an Edge+ member today before the price doubles!
