2020 Fantasy Quarterback Primer
In 2020, quarterback is a very deep position that provides value in the later rounds of drafts and is spearheaded by the duo of Lamar Jackson and Patrick Mahomes.
Jackson had an MVP season in 2019 tossing 36 touchdowns to pair with 1,206 rushing yards and 7 rushing touchdowns making him the highest scoring fantasy quarterback by nearly 73 points to the second leading point getter, Dak Prescott. Regression is expected from Jackson this season, as Baltimore has hinted at trying to reduce their franchise quarterback's exposure to taking hits by limiting his rushing outside of the pocket, but I find it hard to believe that it will be to the extent that many experts are projecting.
I think what will be more likely is for the 36 passing touchdowns to come down closer to the 28 to 30 range with some increased passing yardage and the rushing total to be about the same. Mahomes just inked a new deal that will make him one of the highest paid athletes in history, and it still somehow feels like he is being underpaid. The Chiefs are tailor made for a quarterback of his skill set, and they have speed everywhere. Mahomes dealt with some injuries in 2019, but if he's able to play a full slate this year, it's very possible that he finishes as QB1.
You simply cannot go wrong with either Mahomes or Jackson as your fantasy quarterback. The only questions are going to be: How early do you have to select them, and what are you sacrificing in order to get them? In most mock drafts I've seen and been a part of both are going in quick succession of each other and usually between the middle of the second round and middle of the third round. That's very early based on modern draft strategy, but you will be paying for their high ceiling and week to week consistency at the position if you decide to go that route.
Now that we've covered the two obvious studs at the position, let's take a further look into some other options for your team with a less hefty price tag based on ADP.
Russell Wilson Seattle Seahawks
Findbet Overall ADP 48
Findbet Position ADP 5
I didn't go far down the list until I got to the first QB I wanted to discuss–that being Seattle's Russell Wilson. It's no secret he's one of the best in the game at the position, but I don't think he gets enough credit as a fantasy producer. Based on Yahoo scoring, Wilson finished as QB4 in 2019, and going backwards to 2015 he finished 9th, 1st, 9th, and 3rd. He's shown the ability to sustain consistency as a top 10 fantasy quarterback with the ability to reach the top 5.
Wilson also continues to provide some production with his legs, and at only 31 years old he isn't losing a step yet. Seattle has a nice receiving tandem in Tyler Lockett and DK Metcalf and added veteran tight end Greg Olsen in the offseason. There have been rumored links to Antonio Brown and Josh Gordon, as Wilson himself has hinted that he would like for the organization to explore those options. Even if the Seahawks decide not to bring in any additional talent before or during the season, Wilson has shown an aptitude for maximizing the talent of his teammates and the ability to win games on his own. He will be someone you can target around the 5th round of drafts, and he may be a safer option compared to Kyler Murray who will only be entering his sophomore season with the Cardinals, or Deshaun Watson who lost his primary target in DeAndre Hopkins to Murray's Cardinals.
Matt Ryan Atlanta Falcons
Findbet Overall ADP 82
Findbet Position ADP 10
Entering his age-35 season, Ryan has established himself as one of the perennial NFL passing leaders in an offense that ranked 3rd in 2019. With the addition of running back Todd Gurley, the Falcons will hope to improve one of the league's worst rushing attacks which should help to open up passing lanes downfield for Ryan to find Julio Jones and Calvin Ridley more often. Although Austin Hooper was a large part of the Falcons' passing attack, the team wasted little time in acquiring Hayden Hurst from the Baltimore Ravens to fill the gap. Add to that a potential outbreak performer in Russell Gage, who performed well last season while filling in for Calvin Ridley due to injury, and Ryan will have a full complement of weapons to throw to, making him a solid fantasy quarterback that you can select in the middle to later rounds of drafts. The combination of passing volume in Atlanta and elite players around him make Ryan one of my favorite QBs currently being slept on in fantasy drafts.
Baker Mayfield Cleveland Browns
Findbet Overall ADP 130
Position ADP 16
There may not be a more polarizing player at the position, both from a fantasy perspective and in terms of his legitimacy as an NFL quarterback. After a stellar rookie season, Mayfield fell flat in 2019, albeit with the addition of Odell Beckham to pair with Jarvis Landry and the emergence of Nick Chubb as a dominant running back in the league. Fast forward to 2020, and the organization has a new GM in Sashi Brown and coach in Kevin Stefanski that look to correct the mistakes that were made under the John Dorsey and Freddie Kitchens regime.
The hype surrounding the Browns this year is giving me deja vu back to the 2019 offseason, but this year it just feels more warranted. Learning that both Beckham and Landry were dealing with injuries throughout the 2019 campaign–and being able to look back now at what may be the Browns' biggest dumpster fire for a coach since their return in 1999–provides some perspective into what may have caused the regression for Mayfield. Beckham has stated that he feels 100% healthy now, and Landry should be ready to go for the start of the season, although maybe not at full capacity as he's still recovering from offseason surgery.
Considering Mayfield was such a hot commodity only a year ago and his surroundings have improved on nearly every front, I think Mayfield could be a league winning steal at the ends of drafts this year. Even if Mayfield doesn't pan out to be the real life winning QB for the Browns, he could be this year's Jameis Winston that can win you your fantasy league, due to the fact he's surrounded by top end talent at every position (Running backs - Nick Chubb, Kareem Hunt, Receivers - Odell Beckham, Jarvis Landry, Tight ends - Austin Hooper, David Njoku).
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Until now, there was a void in the industry. An all-in-one prop bet research tool for Over/Under rankings did not exist. Fantasy SP has changed that.
Of course, you could find betting trends on the internet but there wasn’t a place where you could have all the information for every single player on the same page at your fingertips. Well, we wanted to change that. We’ve created the definitive NFL prop bet research tool for pros and newbies alike.
In a typical NFL week, there can be over 1,000 player prop lines available. Traditional player game logs are not optimal for researching player props. Our unique tool allows you to quickly analyze thousands of lines on your phone, tablet, or computer, and find the props with the greatest value. Don’t just bet on the players you like. Become more data-driven with your props research by using Fantasy SP’s Player Prop Over/Under Rankings!
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Research Prop Bet Betting Example
Okay, enough talk, and let’s get to a simple real-world example of how to use the tool to help you place a bet.
For example, Jared Goff has had some of the most ridiculous home/away splits in 2022.
Goff has a passer rating of 106.9 with 2,217 yards (277.1 yards per game), 20 touchdowns, and 3 interceptions in eight games at home this season. Pretty good, right? On the road, he has a passer rating of 82.5 with 1,387 yards (231.2 yards per game), 3 touchdowns, and 4 interceptions in six games.
As you can see, Goff is averaging 46 more yards per game at home in 2022 entering Week 16. Vegas may try to trick you when Goff is on the road after coming off a massive home game but by using our tool, you won’t be fooled.
Goff has a 5-3 O-U record on his passing yard props at Ford Field this season. While his average line at home on DraftKings is 247 yards, his average result is 277.1 passing yards. Prior to throwing for 250+ yards against the Jets at the Meadowlands in Week 15, he was 2-3 on his passing yards props on the road. His average line on DraftKings on the road was only 10 yards fewer heading into Week 15 yet he averaged a full 50 fewer yards per game (227). This shows a clear pattern that he is much more successful at hitting the over and much more efficient when playing in front of his home crowd. There are countless examples of patterns you can spot using this brand-new prop tool that are even more eye-popping than Goff’s numbers.
How to Find Favorable Prop Bets
The key to placing informed bets is to place bets on clear patterns. Ideally, you want to see a player consistently going over or under. Grab a concise list of potential bets to place and compare to the lines at your favorite operator.
Let’s say you want to place a passing yards prop bet on Tom Brady. You check all the lines at your favorite operator (we suggest
Caesars or FanDuel) and need to put his line into context. How often does he go over? What outcomes occur against an easy matchup? What is his average result? How does he do at home versus on the road?
Using our exclusive Over-Under Rankings, you can utilize our premium filters to find out Brady’s historical prop record at home versus the road is even more volatile than Goff’s splits. (This is good and what we want to see.)
At home, Brady is averaging a whopping 307.3 passing yards and has hit the over in six of seven games heading into Week 15.
On the road, while his average line is only two yards fewer (271.2 to 269.2), he has a 1-5 O-U record and is only averaging 239 passing yards per game.
Fantasy SP has just highlighted a very promising prop bet whenever Brady is at home. Take the over. And when he is on the road, it’s a prime spot to smash the under.
Some players also tend to do much better when their team is the favorite such as running backs late in the fourth quarter when their team needs to kill time. Heading into Week 15, Dalvin Cook had a 7-2 O-U rushing yard record when his team was the favorite (79.9 yards per game). Conversely, when the Vikings were underdogs, he was 1-3 (57.8 yards per game). This is why filtering by favorite or underdog can be a critical data point to help you gain an edge at sportsbooks.
You can also filter by the last few games in case a player has begun to heat up or cool off. These filters will help you nail your bets in very specific scenarios. It’s the perfect tool for situational prop betting.
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The dropdowns and filters on this tool are what really make this a game-changing feature. If you only want to see the most popular players on the page, simply slide the popularity to 75% or 100%. If you want to see players’ over-under records and their average results for only home games, simply click Home on the dropdown. If you want to see over-under records for players against teams in the bottom 5 at defending that position, simply click Bottom 5 under Position Rank. Not only can you get all of this insight, but the sliders and dropdowns all work interactively with a user-friendly interface so you can find out how a player is doing in a very specific situation. For example, let’s say Dak Prescott and the Cowboys are hosting the top-five San Francisco 49ers defense and are four-point underdogs. To get a much clearer picture of how Prescott has performed in similar situations, you can check off Home, Underdog, Indoor, and Top 5 under Opponent Rank to get his exact over-under prop historical record in this particular situation. If he is 0-3 on his passing yard prop in this scenario, you may want to smash the under.
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Stay tuned for our future article on even more in-depth tips and tricks.
France vs Argentina World Cup Final Betting Preview: Can Lionel Messi Capture That Elusive World Cup Title?
Picking up where they left off in 2018, the French National Team led by 23-year-old Kylian Mbappe have found their way back into the finals as they look to be the first back-to-back World Cup Champions since Brazil’s dominant runs in 1958 and 1962. Standing between that incredible feat for the defending champions is Argentina, who currently have their superstar, Lionel Messi, in top form. Messi is finding ways to create passes no one can see and he’s done it multiple times, assisting three goals (tied for the most) throughout the tournament. The legend is also scoring goals of his own and is tied with Kylian Mbappe (5 goals) for Golden Boot honors in this year’s World Cup. Regardless, soccer fans around the world are in for a treat on Sunday at 10:00 AM EST as two of the best players in the world face each other for their country’s World Cup glory.
After winning Group D, France defeated Poland in the Round of 16, England in the quarterfinals, and a strong Morocco team in the semis to advance to the Final. On the other side of the bracket, Argentina won Group C and dispatched Australia in the Round of 16. Messi and the Argentinians were then tested in the quarterfinals, needing a penalty shootout to defeat the Netherlands after blowing a late two-goal lead. Finally, Argentina played perhaps their best match of the tournament against Croatia in the semi-finals, winning 3-0. Now the stage is set for a blockbuster finale between two powerhouses featuring some of the top players in the world.
Note (from FanDuel Sportsbook): No team will play at home during Qatar's World Cup. For betting purposes, FanDuel explains that: “Home Team refers to the team listed first, Away Team refers to the second team listed.”
Argentina (-104) vs. France (-112)
Argentina Keys To Victory
Lionel Messi has played incredibly for Argentina throughout this World Cup. He is leaving opposing defenders in the dust, taking on multiple players at once, dragging them away from his teammates, which is opening up the field for his fellow goal scorers. Every time Messi has the ball at his feet, there seems to be more than one threat. Messi is playing just as well as he always has in 2022. He’s served his team as a playmaker and as a goal-scorer in Qatar. He’s also had some help from Manchester City forward Julian Alvarez who’s scored a handful of goals in this World Cup (including two in Argentina’s decisive victory over Croatia). If Alvarez and Messi are able to link up while on the attack, the depleted French defense and midfield could be in for some trouble.
France Keys To Victory
One of the biggest headlines heading into this World Cup Final is the return of French striker Karim Benzema. The Real Madrid star and winner of this year’s Ballon D’Or hurt his hamstring in one of France’s first practices soon after arriving in Qatar. He flew back to Madrid where he immediately completed his recovery work which was set at three weeks from the time of injury. Right now, Benzema is flying back to Doha and could be starting for France in the final. At the moment, France’s HC Didier Deschamps has declined to comment on whether or not he will be including KB9 in the starting lineup. France’s ball movement has been excellent throughout the tournament, but their key to victory against Argentina will be efficient defense. Over the last few games, France’s defense seems to have slowed down. Not only will they need to stop Messi, but they will need to turn defensive stops into counterattacks. Mbappe and Olivier Giroud (four goals thus far in the tournament) will need to be electric on offense and test the Argentinian keeper. Antoine Griezmann may be an x-factor for France as he has three assists in this World Cup and was inches away from scoring against Morocco.
It’s only fitting that Lionel Messi will finally hoist the World Cup trophy in his last World Cup match. Expect him to score a goal and lead his team to victory in a tightly contested battle.
The Pick: Argentina (-104)
World Cup Final Best Prop Bets
Kylian Mbappe: To Score Or Give Assist (+100)
Mbappé has been relatively quiet over France’s last few games. Still, he is the main wing on France’s team who is capable of breaking down defenses through his skillful technique and ridiculous speed. He currently is tied with Messi for the most goals in the 2022 World Cup. If he isn’t able to score in this game, then expect him to at least make an assist. For France to win this one, the 23-year-old will need to have a big game.
Lionel Messi: Anytime Goalscorer (+190)
Messi has stepped up his performance big time this World Cup. If you have watched Argentina play in this tournament, you know how crucial of a role Messi has played in the team’s success. He is tied for the most goals in the tournament with Mbappe and has a great chance of putting the ball in the net at some point during Sunday’s big match. This is a particularly great prop to target since Messi takes all of Argentina’s penalty shots and has converted four-of-five throughout the tournament.
Fantasy SP has worked diligently to bring you next-level sports betting analytics, prop betting tools, public betting splits, and so much more! Become an Edge+ member today!
Calling every sports fan across the globe! The best month for all things sports is here: December. NFL and CFB are getting into the thick of things — I mean, we are finally not seeing Alabama and Clemson in the CFP, not to mention both the NBA and NHL are underway and college basketball just tipped off!
Despite all of these different sporting events going on, the World’s biggest Sporting event is down to the Semifinals, the World Cup.
Although Soccer is the World's most popular sport, it still struggles to gain support in the US. However, every 4 years Soccer takes the country by storm and this year, and these last few games are going to be amazing.
Let us introduce you to your new go-to app, FanDuel Sportsbook. It’s the place to be for not only the usual sports, but for this year's World Cup!
FanDuel Sportsbook is providing a multitude of features with a few market differentiators.
- World Cup Winner
- Who will win the Golden Boot (the award for the top goal scorer of the World Cup)
- Highest scoring Group
- And more
- Popular Markets - outside of the normal Moneyline, Spread & Over/Under lines, FanDuel will also be offering:
- Anytime Goal Scorer
- First Goal Scorer
- Shots on Goal
- Correct Score
- Number of Corner Kicks
- Half-Time Result
- Tournament Goal Scorer Parlay Builder - build your own tournament-long Goal Scorer parlays with your favorite players from every team.
- Daily Specials:
- Highest scoring team of the day
- Total daily goals
- Player specials
- And More!
- Live Parlays
Out of all the betting apps we’ve used, signing up for FanDuel Sportsbook is also the easiest. Simply download the app and create an account by providing an email, credit card, and SS# — that’s to protect your winnings and ensure you're not a sporting professional.
FanDuel is undoubtedly the best site/app to parlay across multiple sports. It’s designed for bettors at any stage. The clear interface is ideal for beginners and you can make a bet in just a few clicks! It’s complete with a number of betting guides that explain the rules and resources to safely bet.
One of the best parts is that once the game ends, you can cash out your winnings right away. No minimum, no wait.
There’s also the incredible New User Offer: sign up with FanDuel Sportsbook and get up to $1000 in Free Bets if you lose your first bet!
Their app has everything you need — from tutorials to real-time game scores. Get amped for the World Cup with FanDuel Sportsbook. Enhance your Sportsember by downloading the FanDuel Sportsbook app today!