2020 Fantasy Football Tight End Primer

Rob Gronkowski returns to the NFL to rejoin Tom Brady, this time in Tampa Bay

Buccaneers.com

The tight end position has become an afterthought for most fantasy managers.

The perception of the group is that there is Travis Kelce, George Kittle, and a bunch of question marks. I do agree that there are a few players in questionable situations, but I like to view the tight end position as an opportunity to supplement the rest of my roster. You are going to have to start a tight end on a weekly basis, and some managers opt to stream the position on a week to week basis, but you may decide to take a different approach after reading this.

Kelce and Kittle are both likely to be selected before the end of the third round in your home draft, but the real question is how long do you have to wait to see the next tight end picked. Most teams will be rushing to scoop up running backs and receivers in the first five rounds, not worrying about quarterbacks and tight ends until the later mid rounds. This strategy is fine and has worked for many championship fantasy teams. There is plenty of value at the tail end of drafts at the position including Mike Gesicki, Eric Ebron, and T.J. Hockenson. But this article will look at what players you can draft in the mid rounds to secure a top end talent at the position before other managers steal them out from under you.

Here's our staff rankings for tight ends heading into the 2020 season.


Rob Gronkowski Tampa Bay Bucanneers

Findbet Overall ADP 77

Position ADP 8

Gronk has made his return to the NFL and he will be reuniting with his longtime teammate, Tom Brady, which bodes well for the duo as they may be the greatest quarterback and tight end combo in history. Gronkowski's sabbatical away from football was short, and his time away surely has helped his body recover in a way it wasn't able to during his initial playing career in New England. There is undoubtedly a rust issue that will surround Gronk and affect his ADP, but I am willing to take Gronk as my starting tight end in redraft leagues. Expect him to fall into place with Brady quickly and get a ton of targets, especially in the red zone. There are no shortage of weapons to be found in Tampa, but Gronkowski demands immediate attention in any offense, and as long as he can stay healthy he should challenge Mike Evans and Chris Godwin for targets and cause headaches for defenses on a weekly basis.

Austin Hooper Cleveland Browns

Findbet Overall ADP 87

Position ADP 9

Hooper landed a big free agent contract with Cleveland in the offseason and is coming off a career best, pro bowl 2019 season. Considering new head coach Kevin Stefanski's use of tight ends I find Hooper to be severely undervalued going into drafts. Considering Hooper is a solid blocker he will be utilized heavily in play action sets, and he has improved as a red zone pass catcher during his first four seasons. Baker Mayfield is in a make or break season, and young quarterbacks can always benefit from having a reliable pass catching tight end after their initial reads breakdown. The team was nearly forced to meet trade demands from David Njoku, but they have seemingly resolved their issues and Njoku is on board with Cleveland in 2020. This shouldn't be seen as a negative for Hooper, rather look at it as assurance that Stefanski is dedicated to involving his tight ends and wants a strong group in place. When Hooper signed his $42 million contract ($23 million guaranteed) it made him the highest paid tight end in the league at the time. This should tell you that Hooper will be used early and often in the Browns' new offense and could yield WR 2 production in rounds 7-10.

Blake Jarwin Dallas Cowboys

Findbet Overall ADP 129

Position ADP 15

Jarwin isn't on this list because of his potential ceiling in the Dallas offense. I wouldn't recommend going into your draft with Jarwin as your only plan at the tight end position, but he is a candidate to far exceed expectations. The Cowboys offense was nothing short of explosive last season and they added CeeDee Lamb in the draft. With studs at every position, the Cowboys will likely find Jarwin in open space a lot in 2020, and if he is able to capitalize on those opportunities he could end up being a top 5 fantasy tight end. Jason Witten leaves behind 83 targets which will likely be split up between Jarwin and Lamb. Jarwin was very efficient with his targets last year catching 31 of 41 passes for 365 yards and 3 touchdowns. Although it's very difficult to project the target share in Dallas, if Jarwin can double his production from last season with double the targets he would easily finish within the top 10 at his position. In most drafts Jarwin isn't going until the last couple rounds, if at all, so keep an eye on him as one of the biggest sleepers in the draft.

Until now, there was a void in the industry. An all-in-one prop bet research tool for Over/Under rankings did not exist. Fantasy SP has changed that.

Of course, you could find betting trends on the internet but there wasn’t a place where you could have all the information for every single player on the same page at your fingertips. Well, we wanted to change that. We’ve created the definitive NFL prop bet research tool for pros and newbies alike.

In a typical NFL week, there can be over 1,000 player prop lines available. Traditional player game logs are not optimal for researching player props. Our unique tool allows you to quickly analyze thousands of lines on your phone, tablet, or computer, and find the props with the greatest value. Don’t just bet on the players you like. Become more data-driven with your props research by using Fantasy SP’s Player Prop Over/Under Rankings!

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All | Pass Yds | Pass TDs| Pass Comp | Pass Att | Rush Att | Rush Yds | Rec | Rec Yds

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Research Prop Bet Betting Example

Okay, enough talk, and let’s get to a simple real-world example of how to use the tool to help you place a bet.

For example, Jared Goff has had some of the most ridiculous home/away splits in 2022.

Goff has a passer rating of 106.9 with 2,217 yards (277.1 yards per game), 20 touchdowns, and 3 interceptions in eight games at home this season. Pretty good, right? On the road, he has a passer rating of 82.5 with 1,387 yards (231.2 yards per game), 3 touchdowns, and 4 interceptions in six games.

As you can see, Goff is averaging 46 more yards per game at home in 2022 entering Week 16. Vegas may try to trick you when Goff is on the road after coming off a massive home game but by using our tool, you won’t be fooled.

Goff has a 5-3 O-U record on his passing yard props at Ford Field this season. While his average line at home on DraftKings is 247 yards, his average result is 277.1 passing yards. Prior to throwing for 250+ yards against the Jets at the Meadowlands in Week 15, he was 2-3 on his passing yards props on the road. His average line on DraftKings on the road was only 10 yards fewer heading into Week 15 yet he averaged a full 50 fewer yards per game (227). This shows a clear pattern that he is much more successful at hitting the over and much more efficient when playing in front of his home crowd. There are countless examples of patterns you can spot using this brand-new prop tool that are even more eye-popping than Goff’s numbers.

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The key to placing informed bets is to place bets on clear patterns. Ideally, you want to see a player consistently going over or under. Grab a concise list of potential bets to place and compare to the lines at your favorite operator.

Let’s say you want to place a passing yards prop bet on Tom Brady. You check all the lines at your favorite operator (we suggest Caesars or FanDuel) and need to put his line into context. How often does he go over? What outcomes occur against an easy matchup? What is his average result? How does he do at home versus on the road?

Using our exclusive Over-Under Rankings, you can utilize our premium filters to find out Brady’s historical prop record at home versus the road is even more volatile than Goff’s splits. (This is good and what we want to see.)

At home, Brady is averaging a whopping 307.3 passing yards and has hit the over in six of seven games heading into Week 15.

On the road, while his average line is only two yards fewer (271.2 to 269.2), he has a 1-5 O-U record and is only averaging 239 passing yards per game.

Fantasy SP has just highlighted a very promising prop bet whenever Brady is at home. Take the over. And when he is on the road, it’s a prime spot to smash the under.

Some players also tend to do much better when their team is the favorite such as running backs late in the fourth quarter when their team needs to kill time. Heading into Week 15, Dalvin Cook had a 7-2 O-U rushing yard record when his team was the favorite (79.9 yards per game). Conversely, when the Vikings were underdogs, he was 1-3 (57.8 yards per game). This is why filtering by favorite or underdog can be a critical data point to help you gain an edge at sportsbooks.

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The dropdowns and filters on this tool are what really make this a game-changing feature. If you only want to see the most popular players on the page, simply slide the popularity to 75% or 100%. If you want to see players’ over-under records and their average results for only home games, simply click Home on the dropdown. If you want to see over-under records for players against teams in the bottom 5 at defending that position, simply click Bottom 5 under Position Rank. Not only can you get all of this insight, but the sliders and dropdowns all work interactively with a user-friendly interface so you can find out how a player is doing in a very specific situation. For example, let’s say Dak Prescott and the Cowboys are hosting the top-five San Francisco 49ers defense and are four-point underdogs. To get a much clearer picture of how Prescott has performed in similar situations, you can check off Home, Underdog, Indoor, and Top 5 under Opponent Rank to get his exact over-under prop historical record in this particular situation. If he is 0-3 on his passing yard prop in this scenario, you may want to smash the under.

Wrap-Up

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Stay tuned for our future article on even more in-depth tips and tricks.

2022 World Cup Best Bets, Team Props, and Futures
2022 World Cup Best Bets, Team Props, and Futures

Picking up where they left off in 2018, the French National Team led by 23-year-old Kylian Mbappe have found their way back into the finals as they look to be the first back-to-back World Cup Champions since Brazil’s dominant runs in 1958 and 1962. Standing between that incredible feat for the defending champions is Argentina, who currently have their superstar, Lionel Messi, in top form. Messi is finding ways to create passes no one can see and he’s done it multiple times, assisting three goals (tied for the most) throughout the tournament. The legend is also scoring goals of his own and is tied with Kylian Mbappe (5 goals) for Golden Boot honors in this year’s World Cup. Regardless, soccer fans around the world are in for a treat on Sunday at 10:00 AM EST as two of the best players in the world face each other for their country’s World Cup glory.

After winning Group D, France defeated Poland in the Round of 16, England in the quarterfinals, and a strong Morocco team in the semis to advance to the Final. On the other side of the bracket, Argentina won Group C and dispatched Australia in the Round of 16. Messi and the Argentinians were then tested in the quarterfinals, needing a penalty shootout to defeat the Netherlands after blowing a late two-goal lead. Finally, Argentina played perhaps their best match of the tournament against Croatia in the semi-finals, winning 3-0. Now the stage is set for a blockbuster finale between two powerhouses featuring some of the top players in the world.

Note (from FanDuel Sportsbook): No team will play at home during Qatar's World Cup. For betting purposes, FanDuel explains that: “Home Team refers to the team listed first, Away Team refers to the second team listed.”

Argentina (-104) vs. France (-112)

Argentina Keys To Victory

Lionel Messi has played incredibly for Argentina throughout this World Cup. He is leaving opposing defenders in the dust, taking on multiple players at once, dragging them away from his teammates, which is opening up the field for his fellow goal scorers. Every time Messi has the ball at his feet, there seems to be more than one threat. Messi is playing just as well as he always has in 2022. He’s served his team as a playmaker and as a goal-scorer in Qatar. He’s also had some help from Manchester City forward Julian Alvarez who’s scored a handful of goals in this World Cup (including two in Argentina’s decisive victory over Croatia). If Alvarez and Messi are able to link up while on the attack, the depleted French defense and midfield could be in for some trouble.

France Keys To Victory

One of the biggest headlines heading into this World Cup Final is the return of French striker Karim Benzema. The Real Madrid star and winner of this year’s Ballon D’Or hurt his hamstring in one of France’s first practices soon after arriving in Qatar. He flew back to Madrid where he immediately completed his recovery work which was set at three weeks from the time of injury. Right now, Benzema is flying back to Doha and could be starting for France in the final. At the moment, France’s HC Didier Deschamps has declined to comment on whether or not he will be including KB9 in the starting lineup. France’s ball movement has been excellent throughout the tournament, but their key to victory against Argentina will be efficient defense. Over the last few games, France’s defense seems to have slowed down. Not only will they need to stop Messi, but they will need to turn defensive stops into counterattacks. Mbappe and Olivier Giroud (four goals thus far in the tournament) will need to be electric on offense and test the Argentinian keeper. Antoine Griezmann may be an x-factor for France as he has three assists in this World Cup and was inches away from scoring against Morocco.

Conclusion

It’s only fitting that Lionel Messi will finally hoist the World Cup trophy in his last World Cup match. Expect him to score a goal and lead his team to victory in a tightly contested battle.

The Pick: Argentina (-104)

World Cup Final Best Prop Bets

Kylian Mbappe: To Score Or Give Assist (+100)

Mbappé has been relatively quiet over France’s last few games. Still, he is the main wing on France’s team who is capable of breaking down defenses through his skillful technique and ridiculous speed. He currently is tied with Messi for the most goals in the 2022 World Cup. If he isn’t able to score in this game, then expect him to at least make an assist. For France to win this one, the 23-year-old will need to have a big game.

Lionel Messi: Anytime Goalscorer (+190)

Messi has stepped up his performance big time this World Cup. If you have watched Argentina play in this tournament, you know how crucial of a role Messi has played in the team’s success. He is tied for the most goals in the tournament with Mbappe and has a great chance of putting the ball in the net at some point during Sunday’s big match. This is a particularly great prop to target since Messi takes all of Argentina’s penalty shots and has converted four-of-five throughout the tournament.

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Calling every sports fan across the globe! The best month for all things sports is here: December. NFL and CFB are getting into the thick of things — I mean, we are finally not seeing Alabama and Clemson in the CFP, not to mention both the NBA and NHL are underway and college basketball just tipped off!

Despite all of these different sporting events going on, the World’s biggest Sporting event is down to the Semifinals, the World Cup.

Although Soccer is the World's most popular sport, it still struggles to gain support in the US. However, every 4 years Soccer takes the country by storm and this year, and these last few games are going to be amazing.

Let us introduce you to your new go-to app, FanDuel Sportsbook. It’s the place to be for not only the usual sports, but for this year's World Cup!

FanDuel Sportsbook is providing a multitude of features with a few market differentiators.

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    • Highest scoring Group
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  • Popular Markets - outside of the normal Moneyline, Spread & Over/Under lines, FanDuel will also be offering:
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    • First Goal Scorer
    • Shots on Goal
    • Correct Score
    • Number of Corner Kicks
    • Half-Time Result

Market Differentiators:

  • Tournament Goal Scorer Parlay Builder - build your own tournament-long Goal Scorer parlays with your favorite players from every team.
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    • Total daily goals
    • Player specials
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  • Live Parlays

Out of all the betting apps we’ve used, signing up for FanDuel Sportsbook is also the easiest. Simply download the app and create an account by providing an email, credit card, and SS# — that’s to protect your winnings and ensure you're not a sporting professional.

FanDuel is undoubtedly the best site/app to parlay across multiple sports. It’s designed for bettors at any stage. The clear interface is ideal for beginners and you can make a bet in just a few clicks! It’s complete with a number of betting guides that explain the rules and resources to safely bet.

One of the best parts is that once the game ends, you can cash out your winnings right away. No minimum, no wait.

There’s also the incredible New User Offer: sign up with FanDuel Sportsbook and get up to $1000 in Free Bets if you lose your first bet!

Their app has everything you need — from tutorials to real-time game scores. Get amped for the World Cup with FanDuel Sportsbook. Enhance your Sportsember by downloading the FanDuel Sportsbook app today!

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