Picks, Parlays, and Props Divisional Round

As the NFL postseason got underway last week, it became clear we need to make some halftime adjustments with our picks this week.

The Ravens were an easy cover for us, especially once Lamer found his groove and the grooves in Tennessee's D. Throw in a few head scratching punts by Mike Vrabel and that does the trick.

Meanwhile, Stefon Diggs came up two catches short for us with three targets left on the table. It was always going to be tough to get that many grabs, but it was worth a few bucks just to see what would happen.

Please, please, please remind me never to bet unders. I haven't hit one all year and yet the siren's song calls me to shore. I maintain this is the best one I bet all year. The pick 6 and DK Metcalf bomb in the second quarter killed after the best start imaginable. After 15 minutes, we had a combined score of 3, 15 minutes of game time later? 30. Bananas.

Then I don't really know what else to say about Pittsburgh losing to Baker Mayfield and co. that hasn't already been said. I just have to edit my list of completely impossible things to put, "Snowing in the Sahara desert," and "Taylor Swift ever getting back together with Jake Gyllenhaal" above "The Browns beating the Steelers in the playoffs."

Saints -3 over Buccaneers

I kind of love this line. It opened at 3.5 and already dropped half a point with plenty of action on Tampa Bay. With any luck it'll drop under 3 for a real steal of a deal. These two divisional foes have played twice already, and neither game was particularly close. Before you claim a clean three game sweep is too difficult, allow me to note it's happened 21 times, and the team going for their third victory is 14-7.

The first matchup was a tighter contest at 34-23 before the Saints went into Tampa, as 3 point underdogs, and put on a master class. Their defense was even more impressive than the offense that day, holding Arians and Brady to 3 points, as Brees engineered 38 points. Now things have obviously changed between then and now.

Drew Brees cracked nearly a dozen ribs and collapsed a lung, while Brady has really settled into an offense overflowing with weapons. It's worth noting that New Orleans' most impressive win was one of a handful of times when the ageless Brees, the elusive Alvin Kamara, and the dependable Michael Thomas were all on the field together. Now that the full arsenal is assembled and prepared to take advantage of the Bucs biggest weakness, their secondary, at home with a harassing defense, I have no choice, but to back them big.

Bills -2.5 over Ravens

The Bills defense allowed for the unlucky-in-4th-quarter-comebacks Phil Rivers to get close at the end and blow an easy seven point cover. The Ravens started slow last week, but managed to secure a cover and their own win by a touchdown. This feels to me like the best game of the weekend with the added storyline of two quarterbacks battling it out to be the 2018 NFL Draft's best. The Bills have statistically taken a huge leap into the second best offense in the league behind Allen and Brian Daboll's improvements, and have the added benefit of being the home team. Lamar will be able to keep this one close, but the offense around him lacks explosion. In a would-be shootout that's the difference maker.

Aaron Rodgers over 258.5 Pass Yards

The Packers offense has been a well-oiled machine. Of course, betting against the Rams defense has proven to be foolhardy, especially last week, but consider two of the Rams worst losses this season. The 49ers got the best of the league's best twice, and who should share the same core offensive concepts with those Niners, but the Green Bay Packers? The Niners won those games with one-legged Jimmy G and Nick Mullens, who put up 268 and 252 respectively. Do I think Aaron Rodgers can outdo both of them with the league's best Davante Adams at his disposal? Yes. Maybe, I should have done this in the form of a question.

Packers/Rams Over 47

Let's bet an over! The Rams let up 20 points, even if the last TD was in garbage time, and managed 30 points on their own behind Goff's busted thumb. The Packers have averaged 31 points, 33.7 over the last three, and finished with a 35 point drumming of the Bears, who put up 16. Green Bay have been hot enough to melt the snow off Lambeau, and even if Aaron Donald claims his ribs are feeling good, you have to imagine he won't be at full speed, which could rob the Rams of their biggest difference maker's first step. On the flip side, the Pack's D hasn't exactly been lights out. They give up on average 23 points a game, and give up a fair amount of yards on the ground that plays nicely into the Los Angeles game plan, especially given the recent surge of Cam Akers.

Just for fun, here's a clip of Aaron Donald tackling two guys on the same play in college.