There might be no more confounding draft prospect than Trey Lance. Does the small school player actually have the biggest upside?
Over the course of my lifetime, the NFL Draft has transformed from that weird thing I woke up early for in middle school to a full-fledged three day spectacle in prime time that boosts the local GDP of its chosen host city.
The other big change from middle school? Me placing bets (as far as the authorities knew). I'm sure for years you could've found some offshore online books that would take your money on draft position; but it wasn't until last year, in response to the global pandemic, that most reputable Vegas stops got onboard. Suddenly, a whole new world of gambling possibilities were opened up to the widest audience ever.
With that in mind, let's break some of the best bets for the 2021 NFL Draft.
CORNERBACKS DRAFTED IN ROUND 1 (Over/Under 4.5)
UNDER 4.5 -105
This is the surest bet of the whole draft, easily. The over being positioned at -115, making it the favorite, seems absolutely preposterous. First things first, Caleb Farley, who was considered the consensus top cornerback on the board, has steadily fallen after medical reports came in that he underwent several back surgeries over the last year, specifically the scary sounding "microdiscectomy." Now there's a question if he'll drop out of the first round altogether, much like Myles Jack, after the announcement of a similar surgery on his knee that dropped him to the top of day two.
Outside of Farley, there appears to be only three other cornerbacks consistently graded at a first round level: Patrick Surtain II, Jaycee Horn, and Greg Newsome. The first two appear slated to go in the top half of the round, while Newsome will most likely go somewhere in the twenties, or right at twenty to the Bears, as Kyle Fuller's replacement. Even if some other team takes a flier on Farley, there still needs to be one more cornerback drafted to hit that over. The pair of Georgia CBs of Eric Stokes and Tyson Campbell are positioned to go next, and I could really only see one team (the Saints) who desperately needs the help.
The math on this one just makes too much sense.
Virginia Tech CB Caleb Farley, a projected first-round pick, will have a microdisectomy Tuesday with noted back-spe… https://t.co/RPaFVfQtav— Adam Schefter (@Adam Schefter) 1616442226.0
PATRICK SURTAIN II (Over/Under 10.5)
UNDER -160
Speaking of corners, they don't build them much better than this guy. Long, fast, and polished, Surtain was the crown jewel of the Crimson Tide's secondary. There are a couple places at the top that would make sense, but his absolute floor is pick ten. The Dallas Cowboys need a corner something fierce, and Surtain is an obvious fit in new defensive coordinator Dan Quinn's Cover 3 scheme. Write this down in pen.
JA'MARR CHASE (Over/Under 5.5)
UNDER -145
While many would argue the smart move is protecting last year's number one overall pick Joe Burrow, who is on the road to recovery after tearing both his ACL and MCL, as well as, damaging his PCL and meniscus, the Bengals organization seems dead set on reuniting the LSU teammates. The hype on Chase is high, as reportedly, the Lions tried to jump Cincy by trading up to Atlanta's spot with their sights set on him. However, it never materialized, and it all comes down to the Bengals, given the first three picks are guaranteed to be QBs, and Kyle Pitts should look good in black. Zac Taylor has referenced and/or hinted at the importance of Chase's connection to Burrow, which I doubt is any kind of a smokescreen. They need to replace A.J. Green or vtick it to him, apparently.
For anyone skeptical about Ja'Marr Chase being the first receiver off the board, consider this: Justin Jefferson wa… https://t.co/ViSopZfODp— Albert Breer (@Albert Breer) 1617201308.0
OFFENSIVE PLAYERS IN FIRST ROUND (Over/Under 18.5)
OVER 18.5 -110
This draft contains both a ton of top end talent at premier offensive positions and runs incredibly deep, especially at WR and OL. Add in, at least, the five QBs slated to go earlier, and that's a recipe for an overwhelming offensive-focused first round. If you're at mock drafts, the top ten contains two defensive players, at most, and I'd bet it's only one. You're nearly halfway home before the impending deluge of mid-to-late-round offensive linemen, like Alijah Vera-Tucker, Teven Jenkins, Christian Darrisaw, and Dillion Radunz. You better believe there's going to be a run on the next tier of WRs behind Chase, Smith, and Waddle. I think three of the four guys, like Rashod Bateman, Elijah Moore, Kadarious Toney, and Dynami Brown could all go in the twenties. Not to mention, a team will absolutely reach for Najee Harris. Add all that up and what do you have? A winner.
49ERS SELECT TREY LANCE +300
Depending on where you look this bet can pay from +250 to +400. The reports out of San Francisco paint this as a two horse race between Mac Jones and the North Dakota State Bison product. This is a value play, and, frankly, one for my own sanity, as a Niner fan. I refuse to believe that Jones will actually end up the final pick, and this is part of my positive visualization tactics to will my desired outcome into existence. Amen.
From @NFLTotalAccess Draft Preview: The #49ers are in a good place at No. 3. They will keep everyone guessing until… https://t.co/zKmtUaKI6z— Ian Rapoport (@Ian Rapoport) 1619646790.0
From @NFLTotalAccess Draft Preview: The #49ers are in a good place at No. 3. They will keep everyone guessing until… https://t.co/zKmtUaKI6z— Ian Rapoport (@Ian Rapoport) 1619646790.0
Shane Bieber faced off against the Dodgers in Spring Training. He bested Trevor Bauer, allowing only two runs, and striking out nine
Welcome to the Mock Draft lab.
This is where we are running experiments, crunching the numbers, and proving hypotheses, so you can reap the rewards of our hard work. The rules for this exercise were simple: Take the best pitcher in each round without reaching more than 10 spots away in either direction. (This kept us honest and realistic as to who would be available and prevented any major overpays for talent.)
The first simulation that I'm offering as a tool going into your fantasy drafts is a breakdown of the best pitcher available in each round left for the taking. This has been achieved by studying the results of numerous mock drafts, cross-referencing those results against average draft positions, and the plain old eye test.
How should something like this be applied? Well, imagine yourself in this situation: You've gone best player available for the first six rounds and realize that starting pitcher is a bigger hole on your team than the Grand Canyon in Arizona. Reference this handy-dandy sheet to assuage those concerns. Not to fear, there's plenty of talent to be had in the next round, the round after that, and the round after that.
This is based on a mid-round draft position in a 12 team league. Obviously, higher rated players could fall because there's no accounting for the taste, or lack thereof, of your fellow managers.
| Round | Pitcher |
| 1 | Shane Bieber - CLE |
| 2 | Max Scherzer - WSH |
| 3 | Luis Castillo - CIN |
| 4 | Tyler Glasnow - TB |
| 5 | Lance Lynn - CWS |
| 6 | Liam Hendriks - CWS |
| 7 | Kyle Hendricks - CHC |
| 8 | Ian Anderson - ATL |
| 9 | Zach Plesac - CLE |
| 10 | Chris Paddack - SD |
| 11 | Patrick Corbin - WSH |
| 12 | Sixto Sanchez - MIA |
| 13 | Devin Williams - MIL |
| 14 | James Paxton - SEA |
| 15 | Alex Colome - MIN |
| 16 | Mike Soroka - ATL |
| 17 | Dustin May - LAS |
| 18 | Jose Urquidy - HOU |
| 19 | Ryan Yarbrough - TB |
| 20 | Jameson Taillon - NYY |
| 21 | Matthew Boyd - DET |
| 22 | Tony Gonsolin - LAD |
| 23 | Zach Davies - CHC |
As you can see, there is talent at every level of the draft, both for starters, relievers, and guys who can do both. The highlights:
SHANE BIEBER
Beginning at the beginning, I can't tell you how much I like getting Shane Bieber anywhere in the back half of the first round. The reigning Cy Young winner looked transcendent last season, and I've seen just as many fantasy projections that squarely place him in the conversation as the #1 overall pitcher. Getting a guy who led the league in strikeout percentage, strikeouts, ERA, and wins is a no-brainer. It's not his fault that he doesn't pitch in New York.
LUIS CASTILLO
A couple rounds later, I believe you can still snag a dude that's about to prove he could be an ace on pretty much any staff. His numbers have improved from year to year, specifically cutting his walks and increasing his strikeouts. Without Bauer in the rotation, Castillo will be the Opening Day starter and can use this chance to solidify himself as a premier pitcher.
This Luis Castillo dude seems to be pretty good at throwing baseballs. https://t.co/jVcslXwKDi— Cincinnati Reds (@Cincinnati Reds) 1600307193.0
DEVIN WILLIAMS
In the middle rounds of the draft, I am all about jumping on Devin Williams. The man has a pitch so mesmerizing that it got a name: "The Airbender." He uses a normal circle change grip, but himself sees it as a reverse slider, or what was one time known as, a screwball. He's been ridiculously valuable as Hader's setup man, piling up holds left and right and center. Look here for the possibility of him assuming the closer role if the trade talk surrounding Hader finally comes to fruition.
JAMESON TAILLON
Nearing the end and looking to fill out your roster, I think Jameson Taillon provides a ton of upside this season. He's coming off of a second Tommy John surgery, and the Yankees have already said they plan to ease him into the rotation by having Cole take two starts before his first. (This sets him up to face the Baltimore Orioles, by the way, a team who doesn't have a clear second baseman on the team). However, he's completely rebuilt his throwing motion, which should be more sustainable for his elbow.
Of course, exhibition games don't predict future success, but Taillon has looked tremendous in his four outings. He has one earned run and 14 strikeouts over the 8.1 innings, and this could, finally, be the season that he lives up to the lofty expectations of his high draft status.
Jameson Taillon is bringing a new and improved throwing motion to the Bronx for his first season with the New York… https://t.co/w862Pq5NvK— YES Network (@YES Network) 1611673320.0
ZACH DAVIES
In the final round, I'm a big fan of Zach Davies, who put together a respectable season for the Padres last year, proving to be a valuable waiver wire addition. Once San Diego decided they were going the nuclear route and compiled the best staff in baseball, Davies saw himself dealt to the Cubs, as a part of the Darvish trade. The increased use of his change up resulted in more strikeouts. The change of scenery to a weaker division should provide a boost to his stats across the board.
Zach Davies was 5th in the NL in ERA last season (2.73). JD likes what he sees. https://t.co/FILc8Zi8yr— Marquee Sports Network (@Marquee Sports Network) 1613489190.0
Zach Davies was 5th in the NL in ERA last season (2.73). JD likes what he sees. https://t.co/FILc8Zi8yr— Marquee Sports Network (@Marquee Sports Network) 1613489190.0
Zach Davies was 5th in the NL in ERA last season (2.73). JD likes what he sees. https://t.co/FILc8Zi8yr— Marquee Sports Network (@Marquee Sports Network) 1613489190.0
Luke Voit has become a fixture of the Yankees lineup, as one of their most consistent and powerful hitters
The top two players on our list are the reigning NL and AL MVPs, highlighting just how valuable First Base position can be.
When you think of a first basemen, what do you picture? A big, long, and, sometimes, chunky player, who doesn't exactly have wheels, but can provide a lot of pop at the plate? Congratulations! You nailed it. Because first basemen are such an archetype, and dole out such similar production, it can be rare that one or a few rise to the level of first round talent.
This year, much like the past few years, really only one *cough* Freeman *cough* might go that high. It's absolutely what I'd call a high floor position. In the third round, you might be just as likely to get a guy who's outpaced by a player in the twelfth round, but, even then, not by much. When you look at what an accomplished 1B can bring to your team, it's easy to see that there's no reason to skimp.
TOP FIVE
Freeman isn't someone you'd describe as flashy or sexy, but the man rakes, and he rakes consistently. Out of his 10 full professional seasons, he has hit over .300 half of the time, and the rest of the time was within spitting distance.
He usually puts himself right around 20-25 homers, but he really shines as a guy who drives in runs. He's had over 100 RBIs twice, 90 thrice; and last season, if you prorated his number out to a full 162 games, he would've posted an astonishing 143.1 ribbies.
I don't even know how you'd notch a tenth of a run, which makes that feat more impressive. With only a couple seasons marred by injuries, you can pretty much count on the guy to be healthy and in the lineup everyday. He's twice played in all 162 and didn't miss a game last year either. All that being said, he'll be the only guy at this position anyone would consider at the end of the first round, so I'd say getting him at the top of Round Two is a steal.
A home run for Freddie Freeman. A souvenir for a fan. Welcome to the NLCS. (Via @MLBONFOX) https://t.co/diXcO4FVOI— Yahoo Sports MLB (@Yahoo Sports MLB) 1602548047.0
Here's a deserving MVP after being the most steady hand on a team that went from the verge of greatness to actual greatness. He's a perennial favorite to lead his league in RBIs, SLG, total bases, and as a guy who just absolutely rakes. He's dealt with injuries for only one season in his career and only missed about 40 games. Unlike some of the guys below him, there's never been a down year to point to, and he represents a gun-to-your-head safe bet for 100 ribbies.
The only Polar Bear in Queens had himself a bit of a sophomore slump after an electric rookie season, in which he set the rookie HR record and led the league with 53 dingers. His average dropped nearly 30 points, showing a worrisome streakiness and a literal boom or bust potential.
But remember, you were never going to draft him for his average. If he can reach the high .240s, which seems more likely by the day, the homers and a decent chunk of the 120 RBIs from his rookie season should return to his stat sheet.
The lumber-swinging farm boy, who seemed like a trade deadline flier and depth piece, has become a starting All-Star quality first baseman over his time in pinstripes. Voit managed to lead the league in homers last season, essentially hitting one every third game and putting up a .277 average, all while dealing with "foot stuff" to boot.
Entering this season fully healthy and with a dangerous team around him should only mean more opportunities to hit dingers and drive in runs.
Like a fair number of players last year after the shutdown, Vlad Jr. started the season not quite in playing shape, and he didn't manage to reach the lofty expectations of his potential and bloodline. This was particularly difficult on the guy, who's notoriously and unfairly been maligned for battling to stay at his fighting weight.
Fast forward to 2021, and we enter the age of Slim Vaddy who looks a lot more like his daddy. Another thing to note: It probably didn't help his production that the Blue Jays were essentially brainstorming from Buffalo around the AL East, which was only settled weeks before Opening Day. Hopefully, having these two issues settled will led to increased powered numbers and the further ascension of Vlad.
THE NEXT TIER
I see the talent here as pretty interchangeable, so no reason to expound on anyone in too much detail. These all represent guys who will hit you DINGERS, then hover around the .240s or .230s or lower (except Goldschmidt, but that's why he's the top of this tier).
In last year's small sample size season, Olson and Muncy both slumped and went under .200, while Rhys and Rizzo managed to stay just above. None of that should bother you, because these guys could win you the HR cat every single week.
ALL THE REST
There's an interesting mix of guys in the group that land in different times, places, and points of their career. Some are looking for a comeback to previous success, some are old vets who have diminishing returns but bring leadership and other qualities to a team, and some are guys on the rise that could by season's end make us all look foolish for rating them so low.
He suffered through a wonky 2020 after mashing 37 homers in his first All-Star season the prior year. As a Pirate who seemed to transcend their inherent Pirate-ness, he became the center of trade rumors on a team that offered little to no protection for their switch-hitting power hitter. A fresh start in Washington surrounded by a different class of talent can only help Bell return to form.
Is 30 dingers too high to reach for? Maybe, but I would have to imagine 20 should be a low bar to clear.
Scoreboard. No really. Josh Bell hit the dang top of the scoreboard. @JBell_19 // #NATITUDE https://t.co/jjj54J5WzW— Washington Nationals (@Washington Nationals) 1616806306.0
One of the most intriguing names on the board from a pure mystery standpoint. He played around a third of a full major league season. There are players who slumped for the duration of their entire career up until now and still made the All Star team.
He's absolutely crushed baseballs at every level, so the odds of him forgetting how to now are slim. In fact, he originally started as a shortstop, but his lack of defensive value prompted the switch to first base as a way to get his bat through the system faster. We could look back and wonder how we all missed an utter breakout season that was right in front of our noses, or how we all thought this guy was worth this eating and never hear from him again.
Ryan Mountcastle is in Ryan Mountcastle form 🔥 https://t.co/o1WMByFL8Z— Baltimore Orioles 😷 (@Baltimore Orioles 😷) 1616715737.0
Liam Hendriks, coming off his best season, signed a deal to join a burgeoning White Sox team with World Series aspirations.
As the game of baseball has evolved, a new level of respect has been put on relievers' names.
Since the early to mid-2010s, managers started eschewing traditional workhorse starters for situational pitching and fresh arms that toss high-powered gas at will. A sturdy, trustworthy closer has always been important, but with the advent of “Holds" as a statistic and fantasy category even middle relievers have obtained a place of prominence.
More so than any other position, relief pitchers are dependent on situational value. How can a strong closer notch saves without playing on a team that consistently puts them in save situations? Over the course of a full season, there are usually enough wins to go around and allow a reliever to make their bones, but it's the little things that separate you from a championship or missing the playoffs. That attention to detail is reflected below.
THE SUMMIT
Cream rises to the top — whether we are talking about dairy products or relief pitchers, the idiom remains the same. There is a clear and defined group at the summit of these rankings with a steep drop off to base camp. The top three on this list are, on average, drafted within about 12 slots of each other (Hendriks At 58, Hader at 59, and Chapman at 70). This is no accident.
Here's a guy who might benefit the most from a change in circumstances. For the past two seasons, he's been a lights-out closer on an Oakland team that routinely competes for the AL West crown with a bargain basement payroll. After hitting the free agent market, he was signed by the team that he absolutely smothered in the Wild Card round last season, the Chicago White Sox.
Most experts had the young upstarts poised for a long playoff run, but that all ended after the A's offense did just enough and Hendriks' Herculean effort. Now, firmly cemented as the closer on a legit World Series contender, Hendricks vaults to the top of this list with his potent arsenal and two straight years of a sub-1.00 WHIP and sub-2.00 ERA. It's hard to make an argument against the Australian not claiming the #1 spot.
Up until recently, Hader held a death grip on the title of the MLB's undisputed best closer; and from a pure talent argument, he may still have a rightful claim to the throne. There's not much to say here that hasn't already been said about the long-haired flamethrower, and he represents a sure bet whenever you draft him.
However, the Brewers are on the verge of a make-or-break season after going from divisional winners to wild card round losers to finishing under .500 in a span of three years. As the team record declined, the likelihood of a Hader trade has increased, especially with the emergence of Devin Williams. If Hader were to be dealt to a prospect-rich contender, his fantasy value would Increase. This, also, would open the door to Williams, and his signature pitch, becoming a fantasy force of their own, forcing a re-configuring of any rankings.
Chapman never really got going in 2020 after missing the start of the season due to a positive COVID test and hitting the DL for about a month in the middle, leading to only three saves but more than respectable numbers for WHIP, strikeouts, and other periphery stats. His manager, Aaron Boone, pointed out during this Spring Training that Yankee fans and media have been able to avoid the annual tradition of worrying about Chapman's velo.
Usually, as he builds up to regular season strength, everyone goes all Chicken Little and screams that the sky is falling on the Cuban Missile's most important asset. Eventually, it ramps back up, and he returns to his usual best reliever in the AL form. As a Yankee fan, I've definitely been left with a bad taste in my mouth, having the season ended two years in a row by walk offs that Chapman let up, but EVEN that wouldn't stop me from drafting him, especially if he's adding a new pitch to his arsenal: the Splitter.
BASE CAMP
The path has been cleared for Karinchak to take sole possession of Cleveland's closer role with Brad Hand joining the anemic Nationals' pen. The 25-year-old moved up the organization quickly and established a reputation as a strike out force, punching out nearly two thirds of all batters he retired. There's no one else on the team that has as effective combo as his lively fastball and knee-buckling curve, so it seems to be a safe bet that he wins the job and becomes a productive addition to any fantasy team.
James Karinchak, 97mph Fastball and 86mph Curveball, Overlay (synced after release). https://t.co/kcHu8gusH6— Rob Friedman (@Rob Friedman) 1568560194.0
Pressly assumed the closer role in lieu of Roberto Osuna, who went down with an elbow injury in 2020. The former Twin was one of the 'Stros original diamonds in the rough that they polished by emphasizing his four seamer and curveball. Since the trade from Minnesota, he's been one of the most effective relief pitchers in baseball and should prove to be equally effective as a closer with ample opportunities for saves.
Ryan Pressly, Filthy 83mph Curveball. 😨 https://t.co/PsPsFhOEZz— Rob Friedman (@Rob Friedman) 1554951061.0
ON THE GROUND
How the mighty have fallen. The once powerhouse All-Star has become as shaky as they come since his move to Chicago. The first year and half were not confidence-inspiring, and this Spring has done nothing to change this narrative. He's on the wrong side of 30, and while his velocity may have seen an uptick, there's no accounting for his command.
KESTON HIURA WALK OFF HOME RUN OFF CRAIG KIMBREL!!! #ThisIsMyCrew https://t.co/N6SmDYRI35— Cream City Central (@Cream City Central) 1564282046.0
A trade deadline pickup for the Brewers from the Giants in 2019, Pomeranz transitioned easily to the pen and went on to find new life as a reliever. He signed with the Padres and continued to effectively eat up innings for them, cutting out a nice role for himself. While San Diego brought in Mark Melancon to compete for the ninth inning job, but Pomeranz should be able to still rack up holds, and you can't rule out him taking hold of it and not letting go.
