NFL Public Betting Trends Heading Into Week 11
Betting on the NFL makes the game even more exciting among fans. Monitoring public betting trends is one of the most pivotal tools used by professional handicappers to find the top wagers in the sports betting marketplace. Public betting trends allow you to track which teams the public is chasing and which teams professional gamblers are high on each and every week.
Whether you want to tail or fade the public, knowing the public betting trends (bet percentages and money percentages) is pivotal when determining which teams to back. Week 11 kicks off with a Super Bowl LI rematch between the New England Patriots and the Atlanta Falcons on Thursday Night Football. Let's take a look at the public betting trends heading into Week 11.
The lines and public betting trends are always changing so be sure to check out Fantasy SP for the latest odds and trends.
Although the under in tonight's game is only getting 38% of the bets, 56% of the money is being placed on the under. That's a 14% discrepancy. Looking at the public betting data, amateurs are betting the over while professional sharps are putting bif money on the under.
Both the Patriots and Falcons are the No. 7 seed in their respective conferences, which means that if the season ended today, both franchises would make the postseason. Tonight's battle will essentially be a playoff game. Each team is fighting their postseason lives.
New England is coming into this game on a huge hot streak, winning four straight games, including a 45-7 thrashing of the Cleveland Browns last week. On the other side of the ball, the Falcons were demolished 43-3 by the Dallas Cowboys last week. That's why the spread jumped from four points to seven points.
With Damien Harris expected to return for tonight's game and Mac Jones playing like a man on a mission to become the AFC Rookie of the Year, the Patriots should comfortably cover the spread. However, this will be a low-scoring affair considering the Falcons will likely be without the services of Cordarrelle Patterson, and Calvin Ridley remains out due to personal matters. Smash the under in this spot.
Although only 32% of bets are on the Vikings covering the spread, 55% of the money is on Minnesota. No team has played more close games than the Vikings this season and Minnesota is 7-3 over their last 10 games against the spread as the underdog.
The Packers will be without Aaron Jones, which means they will have to rely heavily on second-year running back AJ Dillon. While Dillon was great last week against the Seahawks' atrocious defense, the Vikings are a much more formidable defense. On the other side of the ball, the Vikings just defeated a very good Chargers team by a touchdown when they were underdogs. I think the Vikings have a great shot at winning this game outright, but I'd be more comfortable with the two-point handicap.
Although 57% of the bets on the spread in Monday Night Football's matchup are on the Giants, a whopping 84% of the handle is on the Bucs covering. This is a clear case of the sharps putting significant cash on Tom Brady while the public backs the Giants against their formidable opponent. Like with everything in life, "follow the money." The percentage of money tells you that the Bucs are where the "smart money" is.
Although the Giants upset the Raiders prior to their Week 10 bye, it's hard to envision Brady and reigning Super Bowl champs losing three games in a row. Plus, Daniel Jones is 0-7 in primetime over his career. Although the Giants have been better against the spread than the Bucs this season, Brady is going to shred this defense on national television. Take the Bucs despite the 11-point handicap.
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