NFL Best Bets: Week 10 Picks, Predictions & Odds To Consider
We went 3-2 with our bets last week, but because we placed twice as many units on the Chargers-Eagles game, we came away with +2 units last Sunday.
Can't complain about making money. Hopefully, you are following our advice, as we are now 12-8 over the last four weeks.
Week 9 was a wild ride full of crazy upsets. The Bills lost to the Jaguars 9-6, the Dallas Cowboys were dominated by the Denver Broncos, Cleveland defeated their AFC North rivals in the Cincinnati Bengals, the New York Giants escaped with a victory over the Las Vegas Raiders, the Saints lost on a last-second field goal to the Atlanta Falcons, and the Rams were outplayed by the Tennessee Titans on Sunday Night Football despite the absence of Derrick Henry.
If you thought we would get a return to normalcy in Week 10, you were very much wrong as the Baltimore Ravens got spanked by the Miami Dolphins in primetime on Thursday Night Football. As the postseason picture begins to become more clear, it's time to gear up for this week's edition of NFL best bets. It takes a lot of energy and research to have success over the course of a season when it comes to sports betting. Here at FantasySP, we are committed to helping you cash. Remember, if you win 55% of your bets, you are a really good gambler. We are looking at some eye opening odds this week and will help you decipher the best games to place your money on, whether it's moneylines, over-unders, or prop bets. With that, let's dive in.
WEEK 10 NFL BEST BETS
What in the world is going on in Kansas City? The Chiefs barely escaped against the Giants in Week 8, and almost lost to a Green Bay Packers team that was missing MVP candidate Aaron Rodgers in Week 9. Although Kansas City is coming off back-to-back victories, the team is not performing at a high level. The offense is what is most concerning as Patrick Mahomes has been somewhat careless with the football, and Tyreek Hill has had to really struggle for every single yard. Kansas City only posted 13 points against a Packers secondary missing their two best corners in Jaire Alexander and Eric Stokes. That said, I think this is a get-right game for Mahomes and the offense. The defense has actually played pretty well as of late, allowing just 16 points per game over their last four contests, in which the team has a 3-1 record.
As of the publication of this article, 64% of bets on the spread have been in favor of the Chiefs. But more importantly, 76% of the money is on the Chiefs. That means that professional gamblers are placing large sums on Mahomes to get it together in Vegas this Sunday. With an over/under of 52 points, we are likely looking at a high-scoring affair. Look for Mahomes to eclipse 300 yards and find both Hill and Travis Kelce for touchdowns.
The Pick: Chiefs (-2.5)
Prediction: 31-23 Chiefs
Bonus Bet: Over 52 points
Cleveland will be without the services of Nick Chubb, who is coming off a huge 137-yard performance with two trips to the end zone. Kareem Hunt is still on Injured Reserve and Odell Beckham Jr. has been waived and claimed by the Los Angeles Rams. While the Beckham news might actually be good for Baker Mayfield and the Browns, Cleveland is a run-first offense and will have to rely on D'Ernest Johnson. Even Demetric Felton and John Kelly have been ruled out with COVID-19, so Johnson's backup running back is still unclear up to this point. Johnson could be the only healthy running back ready to suit up.
Meanwhile, New England has dominated the Browns in Foxborough over the last 30 years. The last time that the Browns defeated the Patriots in Foxborough was back in 1992. Although only 47% of bets are on the Patriots against the spread, a whopping 67% of the money is backing New England even as 2.5-point favorites. The high-stakes professionals clearly believe in rookie Mac Jones and Bill Belichick. New England may have running back concerns of their own as Damien Harris and rookie Rhamondre Stevenson are still in the concussion protocol and are unlikely to suit up on Sunday. However, Brandon Bolden and J.J. Taylor have proven to be fairly efficient. New England's defense has been playing great defense and I think this is the game where Mac Jones proves he is here to stay in the NFL. This one will come down to the wire, but I'm expecting New England to barely cover.
Pick: Patriots (-2.5)
Prediction: 27-24 Patriots
The Cowboys were essentially blanked by the Denver Broncos last week before scoring two late garbage-time touchdowns to make the score somewhat respectable. After losing money on the Cowboys last week, I'm going back to the well. I think this is the perfect opportunity for Dak Prescott to air it out against an Atlanta Falcons secondary that has struggled all season long. CeeDee Lamb is going to have his best game of the season against the team that passed on him in the NFL Draft.
While the Falcons are coming off a huge victory over the Saints, I don't think Matt Ryan will be able to keep up with Dallas' potent offense. Without Calvin Ridley, his only real weapons are rookie tight end Kyle Pitts, and perhaps the best story of the year in Cordarrelle Patterson. Did you know that Patterson has more scrimmage yards than Dalvin Cook, more receptions than DeAndre Hopkins, more touchdowns than Travis Kelce, and more yards per catch than Tyreek Hill? Yeah, I didn't think so. Still, it will take the Falcons playing at their very best to keep up with Prescott, Zeke, Lamb, and Amari Cooper, plus an offensive line that is anchored by Tyron Smith. Dallas is 8-2 against the spread in their last 10 games dating back to last season. Look for them to increase that number to 9-2.
Pick: Cowboys (-9)
Prediction: 34-21 Cowboys
Bonus: Lamb OVER yards and receptions
The only team that came somewhat close to ending Tom Brady's quest for a Super Bowl in his debut season with the Bucs was Washington. Taylor Heinicke did a remarkable job in the Wild Card game last season, and he'll get another chance in Week 10. It looks like the Bucs could be without the services of Chris Godwin. If so, I think it's very hard to pass on taking Washington and the points. Even if Godwin plays, Heinicke has played well in Ryan Fitzpatrick's absence, and tight end Logan Thomas is expected to make his long-awaited return. Call it a gut feeling, but I think Chase Young forces a sack-fumble that Washington takes back to the house. Still, Tampa should win this game, but I am very comfortable betting on Washington against the spread. Consider a parlay with the over as well. After all, Washington has been allowing the most points per game to opposing teams and Tom Brady will look to get back on track after losing to the Saints in Week 8 before Tampa's bye week.
Pick: Football Team (+9.5)
Prediction: 31-27 Buccaneers
Bonus: Over 51 points
Has any team played in as many one-possession contests as the Vikings? No. The question is whether the Vikings will be able to win this game outright on the road or at least cover the spread. Minnesota is 7-3 in their last 10 games as road underdogs. Considering Dalvin Cook will still be suiting up despite the domestic abuse rumors swirling around that locker room, I expect Minnesota to try to slow the game down and keep the ball out of Justin Herbert's hands as much as possible by giving Cook the rock. Minnesota has said they are going to throw the ball more, and they should with Justin Jefferson and Adam Thielen catching passes from Kirk Cousins, but it's hard not to give one of the best running backs in the league the ball 25 times per game. The Chargers' defense has been very generous to opposing running backs so Cook should steamroll Joey Bosa and the Los Angeles defensive line. While I think the Chargers still escape with a victory, Los Angeles will need a game-winning field goal to get the victory.
Pick: Vikings (+3.5)
Prediction: 27-24 Chargers
Until now, there was a void in the industry. An all-in-one prop bet research tool for Over/Under rankings did not exist. Fantasy SP has changed that.
Of course, you could find betting trends on the internet but there wasn’t a place where you could have all the information for every single player on the same page at your fingertips. Well, we wanted to change that. We’ve created the definitive NFL prop bet research tool for pros and newbies alike.
In a typical NFL week, there can be over 1,000 player prop lines available. Traditional player game logs are not optimal for researching player props. Our unique tool allows you to quickly analyze thousands of lines on your phone, tablet, or computer, and find the props with the greatest value. Don’t just bet on the players you like. Become more data-driven with your props research by using Fantasy SP’s Player Prop Over/Under Rankings!
This is the perfect prop bet research tool to make some serious cash. Place informed bets using relevant analytics and increase your chances of seeing your bankroll increase.
With our brand-new Player Prop Over/Under Rankings Research Tool, users will be able to filter by tons of critical data points including home vs. away, favorite vs. underdog, player popularity, last few games, indoor vs. outdoor, specific props, specific teams, position rank, opponent rank, and so much more!
Research Prop Bet Betting Example
Okay, enough talk, and let’s get to a simple real-world example of how to use the tool to help you place a bet.
For example, Jared Goff has had some of the most ridiculous home/away splits in 2022.
Goff has a passer rating of 106.9 with 2,217 yards (277.1 yards per game), 20 touchdowns, and 3 interceptions in eight games at home this season. Pretty good, right? On the road, he has a passer rating of 82.5 with 1,387 yards (231.2 yards per game), 3 touchdowns, and 4 interceptions in six games.
As you can see, Goff is averaging 46 more yards per game at home in 2022 entering Week 16. Vegas may try to trick you when Goff is on the road after coming off a massive home game but by using our tool, you won’t be fooled.
Goff has a 5-3 O-U record on his passing yard props at Ford Field this season. While his average line at home on DraftKings is 247 yards, his average result is 277.1 passing yards. Prior to throwing for 250+ yards against the Jets at the Meadowlands in Week 15, he was 2-3 on his passing yards props on the road. His average line on DraftKings on the road was only 10 yards fewer heading into Week 15 yet he averaged a full 50 fewer yards per game (227). This shows a clear pattern that he is much more successful at hitting the over and much more efficient when playing in front of his home crowd. There are countless examples of patterns you can spot using this brand-new prop tool that are even more eye-popping than Goff’s numbers.
How to Find Favorable Prop Bets
The key to placing informed bets is to place bets on clear patterns. Ideally, you want to see a player consistently going over or under. Grab a concise list of potential bets to place and compare to the lines at your favorite operator.
Let’s say you want to place a passing yards prop bet on Tom Brady. You check all the lines at your favorite operator (we suggest
Caesars or FanDuel) and need to put his line into context. How often does he go over? What outcomes occur against an easy matchup? What is his average result? How does he do at home versus on the road?
Using our exclusive Over-Under Rankings, you can utilize our premium filters to find out Brady’s historical prop record at home versus the road is even more volatile than Goff’s splits. (This is good and what we want to see.)
At home, Brady is averaging a whopping 307.3 passing yards and has hit the over in six of seven games heading into Week 15.
On the road, while his average line is only two yards fewer (271.2 to 269.2), he has a 1-5 O-U record and is only averaging 239 passing yards per game.
Fantasy SP has just highlighted a very promising prop bet whenever Brady is at home. Take the over. And when he is on the road, it’s a prime spot to smash the under.
Some players also tend to do much better when their team is the favorite such as running backs late in the fourth quarter when their team needs to kill time. Heading into Week 15, Dalvin Cook had a 7-2 O-U rushing yard record when his team was the favorite (79.9 yards per game). Conversely, when the Vikings were underdogs, he was 1-3 (57.8 yards per game). This is why filtering by favorite or underdog can be a critical data point to help you gain an edge at sportsbooks.
You can also filter by the last few games in case a player has begun to heat up or cool off. These filters will help you nail your bets in very specific scenarios. It’s the perfect tool for situational prop betting.
What the Experts Are Saying
Don’t simply trust our word. We provided a free preview to professional bettors and journalists and this is what they had to say:
“I don’t place my player prop parlays until checking out Fantasy SP’s Prop Bet Rankings. This is the only place where I can get an in-depth historical analysis of every player in the League before placing my wagers!”
Matthew Rumack, Professional Sports Bettor
“This tool provides insight that I haven’t seen anywhere else in the sports betting industry. Fantasy SP has developed something truly unique. The premium filters that allow me to figure out how each player has performed in very specific situations are simply next-level. I will not be placing prop bets before using this tool for research!”
Mark Morales-Smith, Senior Fantasy & Gambling Writer
“The features of this prop research tool are simply awesome. It’s easy to use, easy to understand, and incredibly powerful. There is so much data at your fingertips. This is an essential piece to finding player prop betting value.”
Dan Hickman, Professional Gambling Writer
The dropdowns and filters on this tool are what really make this a game-changing feature. If you only want to see the most popular players on the page, simply slide the popularity to 75% or 100%. If you want to see players’ over-under records and their average results for only home games, simply click Home on the dropdown. If you want to see over-under records for players against teams in the bottom 5 at defending that position, simply click Bottom 5 under Position Rank. Not only can you get all of this insight, but the sliders and dropdowns all work interactively with a user-friendly interface so you can find out how a player is doing in a very specific situation. For example, let’s say Dak Prescott and the Cowboys are hosting the top-five San Francisco 49ers defense and are four-point underdogs. To get a much clearer picture of how Prescott has performed in similar situations, you can check off Home, Underdog, Indoor, and Top 5 under Opponent Rank to get his exact over-under prop historical record in this particular situation. If he is 0-3 on his passing yard prop in this scenario, you may want to smash the under.
NFL prop betting can be overwhelming but this tool makes it easy to research the best bets for novices and seasoned vets alike. Bettors should not be placing their prop bets before doing the necessary research. Now you can do all that research on one page with Fantasy SP’s Player Prop Over/Under Rankings Research Tool! It doesn’t get much better than that.
Stay tuned for our future article on even more in-depth tips and tricks.
France vs Argentina World Cup Final Betting Preview: Can Lionel Messi Capture That Elusive World Cup Title?
Picking up where they left off in 2018, the French National Team led by 23-year-old Kylian Mbappe have found their way back into the finals as they look to be the first back-to-back World Cup Champions since Brazil’s dominant runs in 1958 and 1962. Standing between that incredible feat for the defending champions is Argentina, who currently have their superstar, Lionel Messi, in top form. Messi is finding ways to create passes no one can see and he’s done it multiple times, assisting three goals (tied for the most) throughout the tournament. The legend is also scoring goals of his own and is tied with Kylian Mbappe (5 goals) for Golden Boot honors in this year’s World Cup. Regardless, soccer fans around the world are in for a treat on Sunday at 10:00 AM EST as two of the best players in the world face each other for their country’s World Cup glory.
After winning Group D, France defeated Poland in the Round of 16, England in the quarterfinals, and a strong Morocco team in the semis to advance to the Final. On the other side of the bracket, Argentina won Group C and dispatched Australia in the Round of 16. Messi and the Argentinians were then tested in the quarterfinals, needing a penalty shootout to defeat the Netherlands after blowing a late two-goal lead. Finally, Argentina played perhaps their best match of the tournament against Croatia in the semi-finals, winning 3-0. Now the stage is set for a blockbuster finale between two powerhouses featuring some of the top players in the world.
Note (from FanDuel Sportsbook): No team will play at home during Qatar's World Cup. For betting purposes, FanDuel explains that: “Home Team refers to the team listed first, Away Team refers to the second team listed.”
Argentina (-104) vs. France (-112)
Argentina Keys To Victory
Lionel Messi has played incredibly for Argentina throughout this World Cup. He is leaving opposing defenders in the dust, taking on multiple players at once, dragging them away from his teammates, which is opening up the field for his fellow goal scorers. Every time Messi has the ball at his feet, there seems to be more than one threat. Messi is playing just as well as he always has in 2022. He’s served his team as a playmaker and as a goal-scorer in Qatar. He’s also had some help from Manchester City forward Julian Alvarez who’s scored a handful of goals in this World Cup (including two in Argentina’s decisive victory over Croatia). If Alvarez and Messi are able to link up while on the attack, the depleted French defense and midfield could be in for some trouble.
France Keys To Victory
One of the biggest headlines heading into this World Cup Final is the return of French striker Karim Benzema. The Real Madrid star and winner of this year’s Ballon D’Or hurt his hamstring in one of France’s first practices soon after arriving in Qatar. He flew back to Madrid where he immediately completed his recovery work which was set at three weeks from the time of injury. Right now, Benzema is flying back to Doha and could be starting for France in the final. At the moment, France’s HC Didier Deschamps has declined to comment on whether or not he will be including KB9 in the starting lineup. France’s ball movement has been excellent throughout the tournament, but their key to victory against Argentina will be efficient defense. Over the last few games, France’s defense seems to have slowed down. Not only will they need to stop Messi, but they will need to turn defensive stops into counterattacks. Mbappe and Olivier Giroud (four goals thus far in the tournament) will need to be electric on offense and test the Argentinian keeper. Antoine Griezmann may be an x-factor for France as he has three assists in this World Cup and was inches away from scoring against Morocco.
It’s only fitting that Lionel Messi will finally hoist the World Cup trophy in his last World Cup match. Expect him to score a goal and lead his team to victory in a tightly contested battle.
The Pick: Argentina (-104)
World Cup Final Best Prop Bets
Kylian Mbappe: To Score Or Give Assist (+100)
Mbappé has been relatively quiet over France’s last few games. Still, he is the main wing on France’s team who is capable of breaking down defenses through his skillful technique and ridiculous speed. He currently is tied with Messi for the most goals in the 2022 World Cup. If he isn’t able to score in this game, then expect him to at least make an assist. For France to win this one, the 23-year-old will need to have a big game.
Lionel Messi: Anytime Goalscorer (+190)
Messi has stepped up his performance big time this World Cup. If you have watched Argentina play in this tournament, you know how crucial of a role Messi has played in the team’s success. He is tied for the most goals in the tournament with Mbappe and has a great chance of putting the ball in the net at some point during Sunday’s big match. This is a particularly great prop to target since Messi takes all of Argentina’s penalty shots and has converted four-of-five throughout the tournament.
Fantasy SP has worked diligently to bring you next-level sports betting analytics, prop betting tools, public betting splits, and so much more! Become an Edge+ member today!
Calling every sports fan across the globe! The best month for all things sports is here: December. NFL and CFB are getting into the thick of things — I mean, we are finally not seeing Alabama and Clemson in the CFP, not to mention both the NBA and NHL are underway and college basketball just tipped off!
Despite all of these different sporting events going on, the World’s biggest Sporting event is down to the Semifinals, the World Cup.
Although Soccer is the World's most popular sport, it still struggles to gain support in the US. However, every 4 years Soccer takes the country by storm and this year, and these last few games are going to be amazing.
Let us introduce you to your new go-to app, FanDuel Sportsbook. It’s the place to be for not only the usual sports, but for this year's World Cup!
FanDuel Sportsbook is providing a multitude of features with a few market differentiators.
- World Cup Winner
- Who will win the Golden Boot (the award for the top goal scorer of the World Cup)
- Highest scoring Group
- And more
- Popular Markets - outside of the normal Moneyline, Spread & Over/Under lines, FanDuel will also be offering:
- Anytime Goal Scorer
- First Goal Scorer
- Shots on Goal
- Correct Score
- Number of Corner Kicks
- Half-Time Result
- Tournament Goal Scorer Parlay Builder - build your own tournament-long Goal Scorer parlays with your favorite players from every team.
- Daily Specials:
- Highest scoring team of the day
- Total daily goals
- Player specials
- And More!
- Live Parlays
Out of all the betting apps we’ve used, signing up for FanDuel Sportsbook is also the easiest. Simply download the app and create an account by providing an email, credit card, and SS# — that’s to protect your winnings and ensure you're not a sporting professional.
FanDuel is undoubtedly the best site/app to parlay across multiple sports. It’s designed for bettors at any stage. The clear interface is ideal for beginners and you can make a bet in just a few clicks! It’s complete with a number of betting guides that explain the rules and resources to safely bet.
One of the best parts is that once the game ends, you can cash out your winnings right away. No minimum, no wait.
There’s also the incredible New User Offer: sign up with FanDuel Sportsbook and get up to $1000 in Free Bets if you lose your first bet!
Their app has everything you need — from tutorials to real-time game scores. Get amped for the World Cup with FanDuel Sportsbook. Enhance your Sportsember by downloading the FanDuel Sportsbook app today!