Joe Mixon of Cincinnati Bengals

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Welcome to our Week 13 edition of NFL Best Bets!

On the season, we are now 19-11 with our NFL Best Bets and are up +6 units. Not to mention, a bunch of our bonus picks hit so if you made parlays with the right selections, you could be up even more units. If you have been following our picks, you are likely making some serious cash this NFL season.

It’s finally December, the month of celebration, so let’s celebrate with some cash-money picks! December is usually the month when teams start to separate from the rest of the pack, however, the playoff spots in each conference are wide open this season. Week 13 presents some unique opportunities for certain franchises. The Patriots and Bills play on Monday Night Football in a battle for the top spot in the AFC East. Meanwhile, the Cincinnati Bengals can leapfrog to the top of the AFC North with a victory over the Los Angeles Chargers and a Baltimore Ravens loss to the Steelers. However, if Baltimore wins, they will strengthen their hold on the top seed in the AFC.

Week 13 kicked off with a matchup between two teams that were both trending in the wrong direction. The Dallas Cowboys (who had lost three of four games since Dak Prescott returned) traveled to Caesars Superdowm to take on the reeling New Orleans Saints (losers of four straight with Trevor Siemian under center with Jameis Winston out for the season). The spread opened at five points before it dropped to around four points when early money backed New Orleans in this pivotal matchup with tons of playoff implications. However, the spread jumped back up to 6.5 points when Alvin Kamara was announced as a late scratch. Taysom Hill was finally available to make his first start of the season, but New Orleans struggled all night on offense. They could not get Mark Ingram going in the running game, although Hill rushed for over 100 yards himself. Marshon Lattimore picked off Dak Prescott on the other side of the ball and New Orleans only trailed by three points until Tony Pollard ripped off a beautiful 58-yard touchdown run late in the third quarter to make the score 20-10. Then, defensive lineman, Carlos Watkins returned an interception off a deflected pass to the house to put the game out of reach. The Saints responded with a long touchdown to Deonte Harris, but it was too little, too late. Hill threw four interceptions (three in the final seven minutes of the game), which helped Dallas clinch the game and cover the spread. Dallas won 27-17 to take an even more dominating lead in the NFC East.

As the postseason picture begins to become more clear, it’s time to gear up for this week’s edition of NFL best bets. It takes a lot of energy and research to have success throughout a season when it comes to sports betting. Here at FantasySP, we are committed to helping you cash. Remember, if you win 55% of your bets, you are a really good gambler. We are looking at some eye-opening odds this week and will help you decipher the best games to place your money on, whether it’s moneylines, over-unders, or prop bets. With that, let’s dive in.

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WEEK 13 NFL BEST BETS

Arizona Cardinals at Chicago Bears (+7.5)

Coming off their bye week, the Cardinals will get top-tier signal-caller Kyler Murray back and although superstar wideout DeAndre Hopkins is questionable, I think he returns to action as well. Even if Hopkins is inactive, I still think Arizona has enough talent to defeat the Bears by double-digits. The Cardinals average 28.2 points per game while allowing the fourth-fewest points per game (18.4) and the sixth-fewest yards per play (5.3). Meanwhile, Chicago has per-game averages of just 16.3 points scored and 23.1 points allowed. Chicago will be without the services of Akiem Hicks, Danny Trevathan, and All-Pro pass rusher Khalil Mack. Something tells me that the Cardinals’ offense is going to have a field day on Sunday.

This season, the Cardinals have played six games on the road. They are 6-0 outright and 6-0 against the spread, defeating the spread by a whopping 18.6 points per contest. That’s simply insane! It’s still unclear whether Andy Dalton or Justin Fields will start under center for the Bears, but Chicago’s offense ranks a dreadful 29th in scoring and yards per play. Even with J.J. Watt out, the Cardinals’ defense has stopped opposing passing attacks all season. It’s hard to envision the Bears moving the ball effectively, especially with Allen Robinson most likely out. David Montgomery will need to be very elusive and effective in the running game for Chicago to have any shot at keeping this game close.

At the end of the day, I expect the Cardinals to have no trouble defeating a Bears team that needed a last-second field goal on Thanksgiving to defeat the winless Detroit Lions.

  • Pick: Cardinals (-7.5)
  • Bonus: Over 44
  • Prediction: 30-17 Cardinals

Los Angeles Chargers at Cincinnati Bengals (-3)

Both of these teams are fighting for postseason life and this is looking like a high-scoring affair between two high-powered offenses. Although this game is being marketed as the Joe Burrow vs. Justin Herbert matchup, I think this game will be dominated by Joe Mixon. The Chargers allow the most rushing yards per game to opposing running backs this season and have allowed 140+ rushing yards in seven games this season. Mixon has been an absolute stud as of late with nine touchdowns in his last five games. He has eclipsed 100 yards in two straight games and is coming off a season-high 165-yard performance against the Pittsburgh Steelers. Mixon will see plenty of touches as Cincinnati will do whatever it takes to keep the ball out of Justin Herbert’s hands. And although the Bengals’ offense will likely run through Mixon, it’s not like this team lacks a prolific aerial attack. Burrow has progressed into one of the best quarterbacks in the NFL and has a top-five receiving core consisting of Ja’Marr Chase, Tee Higgins, Tyler Boyd, and tight end C.J. Uzomah.

The Chargers have a solid offense in their own right. Austin Ekeler is one of the best dual-threat backs in the NFL and the tandem of Keenan Allen and Mike Williams tends to make things difficult for opposing secondaries.

The Chargers beat the Bengals 16-13 in Week 1 of last season, but this is a very different Cincinnati team in 2021. Not to mention, the “smart money” is clearly backing the Bengals in Week 13. Although just 61% of spread bets are on the Bengals, 91% of the money is on Cincy. And despite just 19% of moneyline bets being on the Bengals, a ridiculous 98% of the money is backing Cincinnati outright. When studying the public betting trends, it appears that amateurs are betting on the Chargers to upset the Bengals while professional gamblers are backing Cincinnati. I’m going with the Vegas insiders on this one.

  • Pick: Bengals (-3)
  • Prediction: 31-27 Bengals

New York Giants at Miami Dolphins (-6)

Once quarterback Daniel Jones was ruled out of this game with a neck injury, the spread jumped from three points to 4.5 points and is now at six points. I already placed the bet on Miami when they were laying three points, but I would still take Miami despite the increased spread, especially with Sterling Shepard and Kadarius Toney looking doubtful. It’s hard to envision Mike Glennon leading this offense with just Kenny Golladay and Darius Slayton as his main targets, even with Saquon Barkley in the backfield. Although the Giants had a nice victory over the Philadelphia Eagles last week, they only managed 13 points on offense.

The Dolphins are riding a four-game win streak to get into Wild Card consideration with a 5-7 record. While it’s unlikely that they will actually make the postseason, this team is playing very well as of late. Miami has forced 10 turnovers during their win streak and should have no problem picking off Glennon at least twice, with Xavien Howard leading the way. Over their last three games, the Dolphins are only allowing 12.3 points per game and the offense has improved incrementally. Although Brian Flores’ crew was underwhelming against the Jets in Week 11, they bounced back in a big way last week against Cam Newton and the Carolina Panthers. Miami sacked Newton and P.J. Walker five times, forced three interceptions, and returned a pick for a touchdown.

The Dolphins seem to have finally figured out how to tailor their offense around Tua Tagovailoa. Tua has 503 passing yards, three touchdowns, and just one interception in his last two starts. Jaylen Waddle has developed into a true WR1, Mike Gesicki has been one of the top tight ends in the NFL this season, and even running back Myles Gaskin has started to perform as a true workhorse back with three touchdowns in his last two outings.

The Giants’ defense is a bit better than people give them credit for, but I just can’t imagine Mike Glennon keeping this a one-possession game. While I don’t anticipate the Dolphins scoring many points, the Giants will struggle to even produce double digits against a Dolphins defense that is red-hot. Keep riding the wave and back the Dolphins. Sometimes it’s smart to make a contrarian bet against the public. In this case, fading the public would be a massive mistake.

  • Pick: Dolphins (-6)
  • Prediction: 20-10 Dolphins

Minnesota Vikings at Detroit Lions (+7.5)

In a battle between two of the worst run defenses in the NFL, both teams will be starting their backup running backs due to injuries to D’Andre Swift and Dalvin Cook in Week 12. The Vikings have played more one-possession games (10) than any team in the NFL. Whenever Minnesota is favored by more than a touchdown, my general rule of thumb is to take the opposing team. Detroit lost a 19-17 heartbreaker to the Vikings the last time these two teams met, and although I’m not suggesting that the Lions will defeat Minnesota at Ford Field, I do think Detroit has enough in the tank to cover the spread.

The Lions are 6-4 as underdogs against the spread in their last 10 games while the Vikings are 2-8 against the spread as favorites over that same span. With Swift out of the lineup, I’m anticipating Jamaal Williams to dominate Minnesota’s defensive line. Jared Goff is also coming off one of his best performances of the season and has re-established the chemistry that he had previously built with Josh Reynolds back when they were both members of the Rams. Goff will also get T.J. Hockenson more involved in the passing game, and I’m boldly predicting that rookie Amon-Ra St. Brown scores his first touchdown of the season.

All that said, I still think the Lions will exit Week 13 winless, but due to their ability to play teams close until late in the fourth quarter, I expect Detroit to cover. Take the points. If you want to do a same-game parlay, consider taking the under as well, as both teams’ most electric playmakers will be sidelined (Swift and Cook).

  • Pick: Lions (+7.5)
  • Bonus: Under 46.5
  • Prediction: 20-16 Vikings

Washington Football Team at Las Vegas Raiders (-1.5)

The Raiders are coming off a pivotal 36-33 overtime victory over the Dallas Cowboys on Thanksgiving. If they can beat Dallas, they should be able to dismantle Washington in a home game that would keep their postseason hopes alive. The Raiders snapped a three-game losing streak and Derek Carr balled out despite losing Darren Waller in the first half. Fortunately, DeSean Jackson proved that he is capable of filling in the role that Henry Ruggs left vacant. D-Jax hauled in 102 yards and a long touchdown, proving he still has plenty left in the tank and that he can stretch the field with his speed. Carr will need Jackson to build off that performance with Waller ruled out in Week 13. The veteran speedster who spent time with both the Eagles and Washington has crushed Washington in past performances. Jackson has tallied 44 receptions for 817 yards and seven touchdowns in his last 12 matchups against Washington. I’m anticipating another long touchdown pass to D-Jax to get this game rolling.

The Raiders average the second-most passing yards per game (295.6) and face a Washington defense without Chase Young that allows the third-most passing yards per game (266.6). Although Washington’s defense has played better over their recent three-game winning streak, Carr is going to light it up on Sunday. Hunter Renfrow had his best performance of the season in Week 12 when he produced eight receptions for 134 yards. In his last five games, Renfrow has caught 33 balls for 227 yards and two touchdowns. Renfrow has come into his own down the stretch, especially with Bryan Edwards still struggling to provide consistent numbers.

Although I think Washington will shut down Josh Jacobs and Vegas’ rushing attack, Derek Carr and the Raiders’ passing game will be too much for Washington, especially with All-Pro safety Landon Collins inactive. D-Jax and Renfrow will both eclipse 100 yards in this contest. I’m expecting Washington to fall behind quickly, and the absence of pass-catching running back J.D. McKissic could prove costly. Taylor Heinicke will get an opportunity in the final minutes to lead Washington to victory but will fall short.

  • Pick: Raiders (-1.5)
  • Prediction: 30-24 Raiders

Week 13 NFL Top Props

Jared Goff over 0.5 interceptions (-121)

Goff is coming off one of his best games of the season and hasn't thrown an interception in any of his previous three starts. However, Detroit's opponents had horrendous passing defenses whereas he faces a Vikings secondary that has forced at least one interception in six of their last seven games. Without D'Andre Swift in the lineup, Goff will likely have to air the ball out a bit more often than the Lions would like. That should result in at least one pick.

George Kittle over 56.5 receiving yards (-115)

With Deebo Samuel inactive, Jimmy G is going to have to rely on Kittle and Brandon Aiyuk to move the chains. As much as the 49ers commit to their running game, I wouldn't be surprised if Seattle stacks the box to force Garroppolo to throw the ball. Kittle should easily eclipse 57 yards, though I'm expecting closer to 90.

Derek Carr over 267.5 passing yards (-115)

As we touched on in the Raiders-Washington matchup blurb, Carr and the Raiders throw for the second-most yards in the league and face a generous Washington secondary missing Landon Collins that surrenders the third-most passing yards per game in the NFL. Considering this game is expected to be very close, the Raiders won't be able to hand the ball off late in the game to burn seconds off the clock. The Raiders will be throwing the ball late into the fourth quarter. I wouldn't be surprised if Carr threw for 300+ yards.

Other Week 13 NFL Props To Consider

  • Mac Jones over 210.5 passing yards (-110)
  • Mike Glennon under 210.5 passing yards (+105)
  • Kenny Golladay over 37.5 receiving yards (-115)
  • Darnell Mooney over 49.5 receiving yards (-115)
  • Najee Harris over 55.5 rushing yards (-114)
  • Clyde Edwards-Helaire under 60.5 rushing yards (-115)
  • Ja'Marr Chase over 5.5 receptions (+130)
  • Brandon Aiyuk over 4.5 receptions (-160)

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Darius Garland, Cleveland Cavaliers

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Welcome to this week’s Wednesday night NBA betting guide.

Last week, I turned $30 into about $1600 with three parlays. You can bet as much or as little as you are comfortable with. I happened to find some great value last week, and I'm here to help you do the same tonight.

Tonight’s biggest favorite is the Atlanta Hawks hosting the Sacramento Kings. Keep an eye on those odds though, as the spread could change depending on the availability of De’Aaron Fox. Now let’s take a look at the best multi-leg parlay of the night, as well as a same-game parlay that could net you a boatload of cash!

Please note that all odds and lines are current as of 2:30 PM EST from FanDuel Sportsbook on Wednesday, January 26.

Top Multi-Leg NBA Parlay Of The Day

Charlotte Hornets at Indiana Pacers (+2)

Although Charlotte has lost a few games as of late, they are one of the most explosive teams in the Eastern Conference. Just a week ago, the Hornets annihilated the Knicks and the Celtics in back-to-back road games. However, the Hornets lost at home against the Hawks on Sunday, and they were bullied by Toronto on the road last night. The Pacers are pretty banged up heading into tonight’s contest. Malcom Brogdon, Myles Turner, and Domantas Sabonis have all been ruled out for tonight’s contest. Indiana will be without their three most talented players. Meanwhile, T.J. McConnel remains sidelined by his wrist injury. Although Chris Duarte and Lance Stephenson have stepped up in big ways for Indiana in 2022, the Pacers will be forced to rely on back-up guards Keifer Sykes and Duane Washington Jr. tonight.

In contrast, Gordon Hayward is the only big-name player that is currently listed as a GTD ahead of tonight’s contest for Charlotte. Miles Bridges, Lamelo Ball, and Terry Rozier will be in the Hornets’ starting lineup, shedding light on how much stronger their rotation is than Indiana’s. The Hornets are a more inspired and promising team than the Pacers. Charlotte will prevent a three-game skid from happening tonight in Indiana.

For slightly better odds, you can lay the two points that the Hornets are favored by and get a larger potential payout, though the Pacers often play close games, so it's a bit more risky. The Hornets have covered in 60.4% of their contests this season, good for the fourth-best mark in the NBA. They also beat the spread by 1.3 points per game while Indiana’s +/- per game against the spread is -0.1. All the peripheral stats, not to mention the missing talent from the Pacers’ starting lineup, point to a fairly easy victory for Charlotte tonight on the road.

Pick: Charlotte Hornets ML (-130) or Charlotte Hornets -2 (-110)

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Los Angeles Clippers at Orlando Magic (-1)

The Clippers are on the road tonight taking on the Orlando Magic. Orlando ranks dead-last in the NBA with a 9-39 record while the Clippers are in the middle of the pack with a 24-25 record. Getting Los Angeles with these favorable odds (+102 on the moneyline) against an inferior opponent is excellent value. Not to mention, Orlando’s average margin of victory or defeat is -8.5 points. For Orlando to win their 10th game of the season, their best chance to do so would be at home, but certainly not against the Clippers. Although Los Angeles is without Kawhi Leonard and Paul George, their rotation is definitely more appealing than Orlando's. Ivica Zubac has stepped up in a big way recently for the Clippers, and I think he will create problems for Wendell Carter Jr. and Mo Bamba. Franz Wagner, who plays like a point forward, will also have difficulties against Zubac in the post. Although Marcus Morris is DTD, the rest of the Clippers (other than PG13 and Kawhi) are healthy. The Magic also have a healthy roster (Fultz remains sidelined) but they have a very slim chance against the sharp-shooting Clippers. Since Orlando has the worst record in the NBA while the Clippers remain in playoff contention in the Western Conference, the Clippers should defeat the Magic, even on the road.

Pick: Los Angeles Clippers ML (+102)

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Same-Game Parlay Of The Night

Milwaukee Bucks at Cleveland Cavaliers (+4)

Leg 1: Bobby Portis Over 1.5 Three’s (-136)

Bobby Portis is having an excellent season. Much of his offensive production is coming from beyond the arc. He’s scoring 15.0 PPG while converting 47.3% of his attempts from the field and is nailing an impressive 41.4% of his shots from three-point range. He’s hit 75 of his 181 threes this season. Additionally, the Cavs are allowing the ninth-best three-point percentage to opposing centers this season. Portis is converting a career-high 1.9 threes per game this season and is attempting more shots from beyond the arc than ever before, evidenced by the fact that 36.9% of his shot attempts are from three-point range. He’s clearly gaining confidence from deep range. Last season, only 26.3% of his shots were from downtown. Portis has drained a three in 11 of 12 games in January and has converted multiple threes in six of those outings. Given all the attention that Giannis Antetokounmpo and Khris Middleton garner, Portis should see plenty of open looks tonight in Cleveland.

Leg 2: Darius Garland Over 22.5 Points (-102)

The always healthy and offensively brilliant Darius Garland should be Cleveland’s biggest scorer tonight. Although he is coming off a 13-point (6-19 FG) dud against the Knicks, he scored at least 20 points in five consecutive contests before stalling out against New York. Though he’s averaging 19.7 PPG this season, he’s averaging more than 20 PPG in January. If Cleveland has any chance tonight, they’ll need massive scoring production from their best playmaker..

Leg 3: Jrue Holiday Over 3.5 Rebounds (-154)

When point guards play more than 30 MPG, they typically grab a handful of rebounds. Although Holiday has been limited to 36 games this season, he is logging 32.6 minutes per game and averaging 4.6 rebounds per contest. This is not because he is a particularly gifted rebounder, but rather that he gets a ton of opportunities given the number of minutes he plays. Like Stephen Curry (who is averaging 5.4 rebounds per game), Jrue Holiday is averaging close to five boards per game for the same reasons. Especially if Cleveland shoots poorly from the field tonight, Holiday should haul in at least four boards.

If Darius Garland hits 23 points or more tonight, this parlay should cash. It makes too much sense for Bobby Portis to drain 2+ threes and for Jrue Holiday to record at least four rebounds. For a +460 3-leg parlay, it doesn’t get safer than this tonight. View the actual bet that I placed on FanDuel below.


FantasySP is developing betting tools to provide users with something nobody else in the industry can offer. Upgrade to an Edge+ account today and get 50% off your first year at just $99.99 for the year. After a year, the price is going to increase to $199. Lock in your special early-bird deal today!

Patrick Mahomes, Kansas City Chiefs

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After a plethora of blowouts during Super Wild Card Weekend, the Divisional Round was much more entertaining. All four games were determined by one score and came down to the wire.

Fortunately for the readers of this column, I nailed all four of my predictions for the Divisional Round. I have now correctly identified the winner of all but one game and am 8-2 against the spread in the postseason! We have netted over a grand in the past two weeks. Let’s keep this hot streak going as we gear up for the Conference Championship

After only one underdog was victorious in the Wild Card Round, three of the four road teams moved onto the Conference Championship this past weekend.

Divisional Round Recap

Despite Derrick Henry’s return to the top-seeded Titans, things couldn’t have started any worse for Tennessee. Ryan Tannehill threw the first of three interceptions on the first play from scrimmage and the Bengals were immediately in scoring position. Tennessee’s defense played well and held the Bengals to a field goal. After taking a 6-0 lead, the Titans tied it up behind a goal-line touchdown from King Henry. However, they failed to convert the two-point conversion. Rookie kicker Evan McPherson nailed a 54-yard kick to give the Bengals a 9-6 lead at the half. To begin the second half, Joe Burrow led Cincinnati down the field before Joe Mixon capped off the drive with a 16-yard touchdown scamper. However, Tennessee scored 10 unanswered points, including a 33-yard touchdown to A.J. Brown. But despite sacking Burrow nine times, the Bengals won the turnover battle. After picking Tannehill off with just 28 seconds to go in the game, Burrow hit Ja’Marr Chase on an absolute dart to the sideline, which set up McPherson’s game-winning 52-yard field goal. The rookie kicker was the player of the game despite strong performances from Mixon, Chase, and Tee Higgins.

After upsetting the Dallas Cowboys, the San Francisco 49ers traveled to Lambeau Field to take on the reigning MVP, Aaron Rodgers, and the Green Bay Packers. After Rodgers led Green Bay down the field on the opening drive, rookie running back A.J. Dillon found the end zone on a six-yard scamper. From then on out, it was a defensive and special teams battle. To end the first half, San Francisco blocked Mason Crosby’s 39-yard field-goal attempt. That wouldn’t be the only critical special teams play of the game. After swapping field goals in the second half, San Francisco blocked a punt and returned it for a touchdown to tie the game at 10-10. Although the Niners did next to nothing on offense all day, Jimmy G found a way to get Robbie Gould into field-goal range for a game-winner. He nailed a 45-yard attempt as time expired, upsetting the NFC’s top seed. Davante Adams and Aaron Jones had solid games, but San Francisco’s defense and special teams were tremendous.

Sunday’s games kicked off with what looked to be a blowout. The Rams were in complete control mid-way through the third quarter with a 27-3 lead. However, you can never count out Tom Brady. Brady led three touchdowns drives in the final minutes to tie the game up at 27 with just 46 seconds remaining. However, the Bucs simply could not cover Cooper Kupp. After catching a 70-yard touchdown pass in the first half, Kupp hauled in two massive receptions (20 and 44 yards) to set up a game-winning field goal by Matt Gay. For the third straight game of the weekend, the road underdog was victorious.

Last but not least, we witnessed a game for the ages between the Buffalo Bills and Kansas City Chiefs. Both quarterbacks were flawless. Patrick Mahomes threw for 378 yards and three touchdowns while adding 69 rushing yards and an additional score. Josh Allen totaled 329 yards through the air, four touchdowns (all to Gabriel Davis), and 68 rushing yards. Down by five points and facing a 4th and 13, Allen threw a dart to a wide-open Davis in the end zone. The Bills then converted a two-point conversion to take a three-point lead. But there was way too much time left on the clock. Mahomes tossed a 64-yard touchdown to Tyreek Hill to take a 33-29 lead with just over a minute remaining. Allen then drove his team 75 yards in 75 seconds to take a 36-33 lead with 13 seconds left. Somehow, Mahomes got Harrison Butker into field-goal range on two intermediate passes to Hill and Travis Kelce. The game went into overtime. How fitting? Unfortunately for Bills fans and bettors, the Chiefs won the coin toss and marched down the field fairly easily. On the eighth play of overtime, Mahomes hit Kelce in the right corner of the end zone, ending Buffalo’s postseason hopes. Sean McDermott’s Bills will be back with a vengeance next season and there is officially a rivalry between Buffalo and Kansas City after this epic contest.

So now that we reviewed this past weekend’s contests, let’s take a look at the upcoming matchups in the Conference Championship, as the Chiefs host the Bengals and the Rams host the 49ers. The spreads have changed slightly, so let’s take a look at the opening lines as well as the current lines.

AFC Conference Championship

Cincinnati Bengals at Kansas City Chiefs (-7)

After each team won their respective games in thrilling fashions in the Divisional Round, bettors will be treated to a Week 17 rematch when the Bengals found a way to defeat the Chiefs, 34-31, on the road. However, Kansas City led 28-17 at the half of that game and it looked like the Chiefs would end up routing Cincinnati before a lackluster second half. Ja’Marr Chase erupted for the most receiving yards in franchise history, the refs made a few horrible calls, and the Chiefs’ offense completely stalled out. I don’t foresee that happening in a playoff atmosphere when everything is on the line.

The Chiefs are the more talented and well-rounded team with more offensive firepower and they arguably have the best quarterback in the NFL. With Patrick Mahomes under center, the Chiefs are 8-2 in the postseason contests. Those two losses occurred against Tom Brady. Although Joe Burrow is becoming one of the top quarterbacks in the NFL, he is not the GOAT. Burrow and his weapons at the wide receiver position will create tons of mismatches against Kansas City’s depleted secondary (especially if Tyrann Mathieu doesn’t play), but the Bengals’ offense can be slowed down by a solid pass rush and zone coverage.

The Chiefs have scored 42 points in back-to-back outings and should have no trouble against a middle-of-the-pack defense after dominating Buffalo’s top-rated defensive unit last week. Kansas City has all of their playmakers back at full strength on the offensive side of the ball and even their running game looked solid against the Bills. Clyde Edwards-Helaire and Jerick McKinnon both should have pivotal roles in the Conference Championship, but the Chiefs are still going to rely on the passing game.

Although the total is a very high number (54.5 points), this is going to be a shootout, so I would suggest taking the over. A whopping 97% of the money thus far on Over / Under bets is on the Over. I’m following the smart money on this one. And despite a full touchdown spread, I wouldn’t be shocked if the Chiefs blew the Bengals out this week. Chiefs win and cover.

  • Pick: Chiefs (-7)
  • Prediction: 37-26
  • Bonus: Over 54.5 Points

NFC Conference Championship

San Francisco 49ers at Los Angeles Rams (-3)

The Niners snuck into the postseason after overcoming a 17-point deficit to the Rams in Week 18 and eventually winning in overtime. Kyle Shanahan has beaten Sean McBay six times in a row and San Francisco seems to be the more physical team at the line of scrimmage, though Aaron Donald does make that difficult for San Francisco’s offensive line. Trent Williams’ return to the offensive line will certainly help the Niners’ pass protection and run blocking. Expect Eli Mitchell to get a ton of touches in order to keep the ball out of Stafford’s hands.

Matthew Stafford and Cooper Kupp have been phenomenal all season long, but the Niners realized that they were even better when facing the blitz. Stafford was the fourth-highest graded quarterback this season when facing blitzes. That’s why he was so effective against the Bucs last week, as Tampa blitzed Stafford a season-high 17 times, including on the game-winning pass to Cooper Kupp that set up Matt Gay’s field goal. Meanwhile, San Francisco managed to get pressure by just rushing four players. They blitzed Stafford a combined 14% in both games this season. Since the Niners are a little weak in the secondary, they have forced Stafford to make tough decisions by dropping linebackers into coverage. That’s the only way to defeat this Rams team and Shanahan knows it.

On offense, Jimmy Garoppolo has been very effective in throwing the ball down the middle of the field against Los Angeles. In their two meetings this season, Jimmy G completed 29-of-36 attempts for 319 yards and three touchdowns over the middle of the field. Deebo Samuel, Brandon Aiyuk, and George Kittle will play pivotal roles in San Francisco’s upset bid.

All that said, the Rams are still the more complete team and their quarterback is far superior to Garoppolo. After losing Robert Woods to a season-ending ACL injury, they signed Odell Beckham Jr., who now has scored six touchdowns since joining the team after failing to find the end zone with Cleveland over the first half of the season. Beckham’s chemistry with Stafford has improved every week and Cooper Kupp remains unstoppable. Nobody in the 49ers’ secondary is going to be able to cover Kupp one-on-one so expect a ton of zone coverage. Still, Kupp should be able to find open space, and when he is double-teamed, Stafford will look for OBJ, Van Jefferson, or Tyler Higbee.

And don’t forget that the Rams did not have Cam Akers in the lineup for the previous two meetings between these two franchises. Akers provides much-needed explosion out of the backfield for the Rams. Although I expect the Niners to cover the spread and make this game a nail-biter, Los Angeles should come out on top if they can avoid costly turnovers.

  • Pick: 49ers (+3)
  • Prediction: 24-23 Rams

FantasySP is developing betting tools to provide users with something nobody else in the industry can offer. Upgrade to an Edge+ account today and get 50% off your first year at just $99.99 for the year. After a year, the price is going to increase to $199. Lock in your special early-bird deal today!

Davante Adams of Green Bay Packers

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Super Wild Card Weekend featured some great games that came down to some riveting finishes.

We also saw our fair share of blowouts. It was a wild beginning to the NFL postseason, specifically the way the Dallas Cowboys were unable to snap the ball before time expired against the San Francisco 49ers. The Niners were the only road team to win in the first week of the playoffs. We went 4-2 with our Best Bets of the week but correctly identified all six winners in their respective matchups.

Super Wild Card Weekend Recap

In the first playoff game of the season, the Cincinnati Bengals snapped their 31-year playoff game drought, as they dispatched the Las Vegas Raiders, 26-19. Joe Burrow and Ja’Marr Chase were absolutely fantastic in their first playoff appearance, connecting nine times for 116 yards. Still, Derek Carr managed to march the Raiders down the field for a final attempt to force overtime. Unfortunately for Raiders' bettors and fans, Carr was picked off by Germaine Pratt with 17 seconds remaining, officially clinching the Bengals’ first playoff victory in 31 years.

The second game this weekend was not nearly as exciting. In what was expected to be a tight game between the Buffalo Bills and New England Patriots, Josh Allen dominated from start to finish. The game was over before the second half began, as Buffalo led 27-3 at halftime. Allen had a perfect passing rating after completing 25 of 31 passes for 308 yards and five touchdowns. He additionally turned six carries into 66 rushing yards. And miraculously, he hit nine different receivers in this game. Mac Jones threw two late touchdowns to Kendrick Bourne in garbage time, but the Bills defeated the Patriots, 47-17.

Sunday kicked off with the Tampa Bay Buccaneers smoking the Philadelphia Eagles. Jalen Hurts looked uncomfortable all day as the Bucs’ defense was finally at full strength. Tom Brady tossed two touchdowns, and despite missing Leonard Fournette and Ronald Jones, the Buccaneers’ running game was actually pretty solid. Both Ke’Shawn Vaugh and Gio Bernard scored touchdowns. At the end of three quarters, the Bucs led 31-0. Hurts led the Eagles to two late touchdown drives, but it was too little too late. The Bucs moved on easily after defeating Philly, 31-15.

In the most exciting game of the weekend, the San Francisco 49ers pulled off the upset in Dallas. San Francisco dominated the line of scrimmage on both sides of the ball, Eli Mitchell and Deebo Samuel both had excellent days on the ground, and San Francisco sacked Dak Prescott five times and forced an interception. However, the Cowboys marched back from a 16-point deficit and had an opportunity to win the game on the final drive of the game. With 14 seconds remaining, Prescott took off from midfield and slid at the 33-yard line. Before the Cowboys could get set and spike the ball for a final throw to the end zone, time expired. The Niners won, 23-17.

After a slow start on offense and a defensive touchdown by T.J. Watt that gave Pittsburgh a 7-0 lead, the Kansas City Chiefs got it going in the second quarter. Mahomes tallied over 400 yards and five touchdowns. Even Travis Kelce threw a touchdown of his own. The Chiefs won this game with ease, 49-21. Ben Roethlisberger has likely played his last game in the NFL.

The final game of the Wild Card Round was expected to be a close divisional matchup between the Arizona Cardinals and Los Angeles Rams. Instead, the Rams went up 21-0 by the end of the first half and never looked back. Odell Beckham Jr. had a great game and Matthew Stafford did an excellent job protecting the football. It was also great to see Cam Akers playing with some serious burst and speed considering it’s been just six months since he tore his ACL. Meanwhile, Kyler Murray was atrocious in the first playoff game of his career. He threw two interceptions (including one head-scratching desperate heave from his own end zone that resulted in a pick-six). The Cardinals have a talented roster, but without DeAndre Hopkins, they simply imploded late in the season. They will be back with a vengeance next season and for many years to come.

So now that we reviewed this weekend’s contest, let’s take a look at the upcoming matchups in the Divisional Round of the NFL Playoffs. The spreads have changed in certain games, so let’s take a look at the opening lines as well as the current lines.

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Saturday Divisional Round Picks

Cincinnati Bengals at Tennessee Titans (-3.5)

The Bengals and Titans could not be more different when it comes to their respective offensive identities. The Bengals are a pass-heavy team with a stud quarterback in Joe Burrow and one of the best receiver tandems in the league featuring Ja’Marr Chase, Tee Higgins, and Tyler Boyd. Don’t get me wrong, they can absolutely run the ball well too with superstar Joe Mixon, but Zac Taylor will look to exploit Tennessee’s secondary. The Titans allowed 245.2 passing yards per game, the eighth-worst in the NFL. It will be difficult to find any running room for Mixon, as Tennessee permitted just 84.6 rushing yards per game, the second-fewest in the league.

On the other side of the ball, the Titans will attempt to run the ball down Cincinnati’s throats, especially with the triumphant return of Derrick Henry. Henry may not be at full strength, but he is an upgrade over D’Onta Foreman, though Foreman should still get some carries in this matchup. That said, Cincinnati allowed the fifth-fewest rushing yards per game this season. Ryan Tannehill is going to have to air it out so that the offense doesn’t become so predictable. A.J. Brown is a matchup nightmare for the Bengals’ secondary and Julio Jones could serve as a solid red-zone threat after scoring his first touchdown of the season in Week 18.

Last week, I only picked one upset, but this week’s matchups seem much more even. The Titans are a good football team and are incredibly well-coached, however, the Bengals have a much more explosive offense. If Burrow and Chase can perform as they did against the Raiders, I expect Cincinnati to pull off the upset and knock out the No. 1 seed in the AFC.

  • Pick: Bengals (+3.5)
  • Prediction: 27-23 Bengals

San Francisco 49ers at Green Bay Packers (-5.5)

After getting some much-needed rest, the Green Bay Packers will host the red-hot San Francisco 49ers. Although the Niners are in good spirits, quarterback Jimmy Garoppolo suffered a minor shoulder injury, and defensive stud Nick Bosa suffered a concussion in San Francisco’s thrilling victory over the Cowboys. Without Bosa, I’m not sure the Niners have much of a chance at defending Aaron Rodgers, Aaron Jones, and Davante Adams. If Bosa is active, an upset isn’t out of the question. The 49ers’ secondary is the weakest unit on their roster. Without Bosa to put pressure on Rodgers, the reigning MVP will have way too much time in the pocket to find his talented receivers.

Kyle Shannahan will continue to do what the Niners do best and that is run the ball. Eli Mitchell and Deebo Samuel should combine for 30 touches in this game. San Francisco will attempt to move the chains and kill some clock to limit the number of possessions that Rodgers gets. Fortunately for San Francisco, the Packers allowed the third-most rushing yards per game this season.

Both offenses should thrive in this game, as each team’s offensive has several matchups to exploit. Davante Adams is going to have a massive game. Don’t be surprised if he catches 10 passes for 150 yards and multiple touchdowns. However, the 49ers are a very physical team, and if they can dominate the line of scrimmage as they did against the Cowboys, they have a shot at upsetting Green Bay at Lambeau Field. With the weather forecast calling for snow, that benefits San Francisco’s style of play, though the Packers are used to playing in cold weather. It may be a bit harder for Rodgers to get the passing game going in these conditions, but he’s a veteran with years of experience in these types of games. While I expect the 49ers to cover the spread, Green Bay will sneak into the Conference Championship by converting a last-second field goal.

  • Pick: 49ers (+5.5)
  • Prediction: 26-24 Packers
  • Bonus: Over 47.5 Points

Sunday Divisional Round Picks

Los Angeles Rams at Tampa Bay Buccaneers (-3)

The Rams played mistake-free football Monday night against the Arizona Cardinals and now must head to Raymond James Stadium to take on Tom Brady and the reigning Super Bowl champions. Although the Bucs handled the Philadelphia Eagles quite easily, the Rams are a completely different type of foe with one of the best head coaches in the NFL. Los Angeles has defeated Tampa Bay twice over the past two seasons and will look to make it three straight. We all know that the only way to make Tom Brady uncomfortable in the pocket is to pressure him up the middle. Fortunately for the Rams, they have a three-time Defensive Player of the Year, Aaron Donald. Plus, Leonard Floyd and Von Miller will make life difficult for TB12.

Without Chris Godwin and Antonio Brown, Brady performed well against the Eagles. He hit Mike Evans and Rob Gronkowski each for a touchdown. Cameron Brate made a few decent plays, but Tyler Johnson, Breshad Perriman, and Scotty Miller are no match for the Rams’ secondary. Jalen Ramsey will likely shadow Evans, which will force the Bucs to run the ball or throw to their least trustworthy pass catchers. Even if running back Leonard Fournette returns to action, the Rams allowed the sixth-fewest rushing yards per game this season. Something tells me Brady is going to have to play one of his best games to move on in the postseason.

All that said, Matthew Stafford and the Rams’ offense need to show up. We can’t get the inconsistent Rams that we saw towards the end of the regular season. Los Angeles needs to remain balanced on offense, mixing in Cam Akers and Sony Michel, while utilizing Cooper Kupp, Odell Beckham Jr., Tyler Higbee, and Van Jefferson.


Cooper Kupp Cooper Kupp of the Los Angeles RamsGetty Images

Stafford needs to protect the football. Whoever wins the turnover battle in this contest will move on to the NFC Conference Championship.

Although only 50% of the bets on the spread right now are backing the Rams, a whopping 91% of the money has been wagered on Los Angeles covering the three-point handicap. I’m following the smart money and taking the Rams, though I’ll go a bit further and say that Los Angeles upsets Tampa Bay on the road, ending Tom Brady’s hopes of back-to-back Super Bowl titles with the Bucs.

  • Pick: Rams (+3)
  • Prediction: 30-23 Rams

Buffalo Bills at Kansas City Chiefs (-2)

This is the matchup that we have all been waiting for. Many pundits expect the winner of this game to win the Super Bowl, myself included. Both Josh Allen and Patrick Mahomes were excellent during the Wild Card Round. In fact, Allen actually had a perfect passer rating. Mahomes was close, but he did throw an interception in the first quarter. Each quarterback threw for five touchdowns apiece. They also have some of the best weapons in the league in their respective arsenals. Will Buffalo’s league-best defense be able to limit Mahomes, Tyreek Hill, and Travis Kelce? That’s the big question.

Last year in the Divisional Round, the Chiefs defeated the Bills in a fairly comfortable fashion. This year’s Buffalo squad is much better than it was last year with the improvement of Devin Singletary, Gabriel Davis, Dawson Knox, and Isaiah McKenzie, plus the addition of Emmanuel Sanders. And don’t forget Stefon Diggs. This offense has some serious firepower and the defense has shut down opponents all year long.

If Buffalo’s defensive line can out-work Kansas City’s offensive line, Mahomes could be scrambling for his life, much as he did in last year’s Super Bowl. That’s clearly the recipe to success against this high-powered Chiefs offense. If this game were being played in Buffalo, I am convinced that Josh Allen would lead the Bills to victory. However, playing at Arrowhead is no easy task. Kansas City’s fans will make things difficult for Buffalo’s offensive line. And although the Chiefs have improved through the year on defense, Buffalo has too many skill players to cover on any given down. This is going to be an absolute shoot-out. Buffalo is more well-rounded, but if their defense doesn’t get to Mahomes, the Chiefs will light up the scoreboard just as they did against the Steelers last week.

Overall, this is a bit of a coin flip. I don’t love betting on this game as both teams deserve to move onto the Conference Championship, but if I had a gun to my head, I have to go with Mahomes and the Chiefs.

  • Pick: Chiefs (-2)
  • Prediction: 34-31
  • Bonus: Over 55 Points

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