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NBA Playoffs Best Bets of the Night: Monday, May 2

Chris Paul, Phoenix Suns

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As we head into the Conference Semifinals, two Game 1s are on the schedule tonight.

The top seed in the Eastern Conference, the Miami Heat, will host James Harden and the Philadelphia 76ers. The second Game 1 of the night will feature Luka Doncic and the Dallas Mavericks taking on Chris Paul and the Phoenix Suns.

Best Bets of the Night

Game: Philadelphia 76ers at Miami Heat -7.5 (Game 1)

Despite Joel Embiid’s thumb injury and a small scare induced by a Toronto Raptors squad that was fighting for survival, the 76ers kick off their Eastern Conference Semi-Final tonight against the ferocious Miami Heat. Both of these teams are looking like the strongest coming out of the Eastern Conference this postseason (though don't count out the Bucks just because Khris Middleton is hurt as they dominated the Boston Celtics in Game 1 on Sunday). However, Joel Embiid will miss at least the first two games of this series due to a facial fracture and a concussion that the big man sustained in their Game 6 win over the Toronto Raptors.

While he could play through a torn ligament in his thumb, it is out of the question for him to play with such head injuries. For Embiid to miss the first two games of this series is simply devastating for the 76ers. If Embiid has a chance of clearing concussion protocols by Game 3 or 4, the 76ers might be able to survive. However, the Heat are dealing with injury issues of their own. Specifically, Kyle Lowry has been ruled out for Game 1 due to his hamstring injury, while Tyler Herro, Jimmy Butler, and Markieff Morris are all listed as game-time decisions for various reasons ahead of tonight’s game. While Embiid could be out for significant time during the second round and will be playing the rest of the postseason with a torn ligament in his thumb, the Heat have a few very short-term injuries that coach Spoelstra isn’t too worried about. “They feel like they have enough, we feel like we have enough. I guess probably both sides are ready to tip this thing up,” coach Spoelstra said. As it stands at the moment, Philadelphia is in trouble and looks like they will lose their first two second-round games by double digits without Embiid available. Then again, crazier things have occurred. Don't completely count the Sixers out but the Heat should cover the spread tonight.

The Pick: Miami Heat -7.5

Game: Dallas Mavericks at Phoenix Suns -5.5 (Game 1)

Despite New Orleans’ hard work in trying to fend off the Suns, Chris Paul’s perfect night from the field in Game 6 demonstrated why CP3 is more versatile than just a pass-first point guard. The reigning Western Conference champions are the clear-cut favorites in Game 1, especially on their home floor. The truth is that Dallas lacks size in the post which will allow guys like Deandre Ayton and even JaVale McGee to have very efficient nights. Simply put, both of Phoenix’s true centers have the advantage over the Mavs’ bigs Dwight Powell and Maxi Kleber in the paint. That said, Kleber can stretch the floor due to his three-point accuracy. Neither Ayton nor McGee are reliable in defending the perimeter. They are both much more comfortable as defensive anchors down low in the paint. That said, the Suns have tons of momentum after Chris Paul's record-breaking performance when he converted all 14 of his shots in Game 6 against the Pelicans. Ayton also seems to have found his groove in the playoffs. And although Ayton isn't a great perimeter defender, he has the size and strength to dominate on the offensive end of the floor against Powell and Kleber.

In Game 1, we’ll see this mismatch in front of our eyes, and will be one of the main reasons why the Suns are able to pull off the big Game 1 win. Injuries aren’t a factor going into this series. With the exception of Tim Hardaway Jr. for the Mavericks and Dario Saric for the Suns, both teams are entirely healthy and ready to go. This regular season, the Suns and the Mavericks faced off three times and Phoenix won all three contests. To kick off their Western Conference Semifinals on their home floor, the Suns could win by double-digits in Game 1.

The Pick: Phoenix Suns -5.5

NBA Player Props of the Night

Game: Dallas Mavericks at Phoenix Suns -5.5 (Game 1)

Prop: Chris Paul Over 16.5 Points

Jose Alvarado and Herbert Jones are out of the way for Chris Paul now. He’ll have to worry about Dallas’ guards who are primarily excellent offensive players. They certainly will be less focused on smothering CP3 on the court than the New Orleans rookies. Finally, Chris Paul is coming off of a record-setting historical Game 6 performance where he shot a perfect 14-14 from the field to carry the Suns to the Western Conference Semifinals. Even with Devin Booker back in the lineup, expect Paul to drop 17+ points in Game 1.

Prop: Devin Booker Over 2.5 Three-Pointers Made

Devin Booker made a surprise appearance in Game 6 when he was previously expected to miss the remainder of the first-round series due to his hamstring injury. In 32 minutes on the floor in Game 6, D-Book went one-of-six from downtown. However, he shot 50% or above from downtown, converting four-of-eight threes in Game 1. Additionally, he went bonkers in Game 2 with seven three-pointers on just 11 attempts. Tonight, he’ll make at least three buckets from downtown.

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NBA Playoffs Best Bets: Sunday, May 15

Jayson Tatum, Boston Celtics

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This Sunday, we have two huge Conference Semifinal Game 7s on the schedule.

The Celtics won on the road in Game 6 off of Jayson Tatum’s heroics. As a result, the Bucks return to the TD Garden to face the Celtics at 3:30 PM EST. The Phoenix Suns and Dallas Mavericks have won all their home games and lost all their away games in their playoff series. The Mavs’ take on the Phoenix Suns on the road at 8:00 PM EST tonight. Let’s take a look at the best bets of today’s amazing NBA action. The stakes couldn’t be higher for each of these four teams.

Best Bets of the Night

Game: Milwaukee Bucks at Boston Celtics -5 (Series Tied 3-3)

Following a heart-wrenching loss at home in Game 5, the Celtics bounced back in Milwaukee in Game 6. The Bucks’ hopes of closing out the series at home were crushed by Celtics superstar Jayson Tatum who scored 46 points (17-32 FG).

Though Giannis scored 44 (14-30 FG), the Bucks lost Game 6 by 13 points. Boston’s defense held the Bucks to 40.9% shooting from the field and a disastrous 24.1% from downtown. The Bucks only converted seven of their 29 three-point attempts on Friday night. While Giannis Antetokounmpo, Pat Connaughton, and Jrue Holiday played well, they combined for 75 of the Bucks’ 95 total points. The rest of the team only combined for 20 points. Brook Lopez only saw 19 minutes on the floor to score 6 points. The Bucks’ opted to five Bobby Portis more minutes, yet he only scored four points on two-of-eight shooting. Though the Celtics’ as a team combined for a mediocre 43.7% shooting on the night, they hit 17 three-pointers which allowed them to easily outscore the highly inefficient Bucks in Game 6.

Expect the Bucks to play better Sunday afternoon. Still, Ime Udoka's defense has been highly successful against Milwaukee throughout the series. This Celtics’ team is playing with outstanding confidence fueled by the desire to reach the Eastern Conference Finals for the first time since 2018. With the home crowd’s support at the TD Garden tomorrow, Boston should take Game 7 by five or more points.

The Pick: Boston Celtics -5

Game: Dallas Mavericks at Phoenix Suns -6.5 (Series Tied 3-3)

The trend throughout this series has been winning comfortably at home. Each team has won all of their games at home and lost all of their games on the road. In Game 6, the Suns only scored 86 points and played abysmally. Phoenix got into foul trouble early, and finished with 27 personal fouls as a team. As a result, the Mavericks scored 27 points from 36 FT attempts in Game 6. The Suns also had 22 turnovers throughout the game, with 13 of them coming from Devin Booker (8 TOs) and Chris Paul (5 TOs). In contrast, the Mavericks only produced six turnovers throughout the contest. Game 6 was over by the third quarter.

The Suns will certainly play better in Game 7 as they look to secure another ticket to the Western Conference Finals. Nonetheless, this game will not end in a blowout. Expect the Mavericks to lose by six points or less on Sunday.

The Pick: Dallas Mavericks +6.5

NBA Player Props

Game: Dallas Mavericks at Phoenix Suns -6.5 (Series Tied 3-3)

Prop: Reggie Bullock, Over 9.5 Points

After going scoreless in Game 5, Reggie Bullock bounced back in Game 6 to score 19 points (7-15 FG). He knocked down five three-pointers in the game. Bullock has played a crucial role in the Mavericks’ success this postseason. He’ll step up again to easily hit 10+ points in this massive Game 7.

Prop: Devin Booker, Over 28.5 Points

D-Book only scored 19 points (6-17 FG) and shot very inefficiently from the field in Game 6. At home in a must-win Game 7, expect Booker to bounce back for 35+ points. He will be Phoenix’s main scorer.

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NBA Best Bets of the Night: Wednesday, May 4

Tyler Herro (Left), Bam Adebayo (Right), Miami Heat

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Tonight we have two Second-Round Game 2 Matchups.

The first features the Embiid-less Philadelphia 76ers against the red-hot Miami Heat. Next, Chris Paul and the Phoenix Suns look to take a 2-0 lead over Luka Doncic and the Dallas Mavericks. Let's dive into tonight's best NBA bets and player props. And happy May the 4th to all you Star Wars fans out there.

Please Note: All odds and lines are from FanDuel Sportsbook and were accurate at 2 PM EST. Be sure to check for line movement or odd changes.

Best Bets of the Night

Game: Philadelphia 76ers at Miami Heat -8 (MIA Leads 1-0)

The Miami Heat kicked off their second-round series with a dominant 92-106 win over the Philadelphia 76ers. With Joel Embiid out of the lineup due to a concussion and a facial fracture (for which he will wear a mask upon return), the hope was that James Harden could step it up in scoring. Nonetheless, Harden only scored 19 points. In total, only three players on the 76ers (Harden, Maxey, & Harris) scored in double-figures.

In contrast, the Heat had five guys who scored 10+ points in Game 1. While Herro, Butler, and Abedayo should all be scoring double-digits every night, P.J. Tucker and Gabe Vincent are not expected to do so. Vincent only got there due to Kyle Lowry's absence in Game 1. Without Embiid in the paint, things looked a lot easier for Bam Adebayo who had 24 points (8-10 FG) and 12 rebounds on Monday night. The Heat should cover yet again and take a commanding 2-0 lead in the series.

The Pick: Miami Heat -8 (-110)

Game: Dallas Mavericks at Phoenix Suns -6.5 (PHO Leads 1-0)

Game 1 of this second-round series ended with the Phoenix Suns defending the home court with a final score of 121-114. Both teams shot well above 45% from the field in Game 1, and it truly came down to the wire. The Phoenix Suns covered the spread with clutch free throws in the last few minutes of the Game. In Game 2, Dallas could lose, but not by more than they did in Game 1. My guess would be that Dallas keeps it closer than they did in Game 1, and perhaps even squeeze out a Game 2 win on the road. The spread is one point greater tonight than it was in Game 1, further increasing Dallas’ chances of covering the spread. Nonetheless, the Mavericks are still looking to get their first win against the Suns altogether, as they have yet to defeat them in the regular season nor in the playoffs this year. If Luka Doncic continues to perform at an elite level, the Mavericks have a shot. That said, Maxi Kleber has become one of the most important players on the Mavs. His ability to hit threes and bring Deandre Ayton and JaVale McGee out of the paint is critical to the Mavericks' potential success.

The Pick: Dallas Mavericks +6.5 (-110)

NBA Player Props of the Night

Game: Philadelphia 76ers at Miami Heat -8 (MIA Leads 1-0)

Prop #1: Tobias Harris Over 19.5 Points

Tobias Harris has been a very reliable offensive player for the 76ers since the postseason began. In Game 1, the veteran wing shot very efficiently from the field and scored a team-high 27 points (11-18 FG). This regular season, Harris’ offensive numbers dropped to 17.2 PPG from approximately 19.5 PPG in both 2020 and 2019. However, Harris has re-emerged as one of Philly’s best offensive weapons. He’s scoring more than Harden, and should easily score at least 20 points tonight.

Prop #2: Tyler Herro Over 18.5 Points

Tyler Herro led all scorers for the Miami Heat in Game 1 with 25 points (9-17 FG) and went four-of-six from downtown. He also converted 50% of his shots in Game 5 of their first-round series against the Hawks and finished with 16 points. He honestly looked like the rookie sensation who emerged in the 2020 NBA Playoffs when he absolutely erupted in the bubble. The newly elected NBA Sixth Man of the Year is playing the part when it matters most.

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NBA Best Bets Of The Night: Tuesday, Mar. 15

Kyrie Irving of Brooklyn Nets

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Tonight, we have a four-game slate featuring the Brooklyn Nets, the Memphis Grizzlies, and the Phoenix Suns.

We will focus on the Brooklyn Nets matchup against the Orlando Magic for our Same Game Parlay of the Night, as I expect Kyrie Irving to have a huge night. Let's dive in.

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Best Bets of The Night

Please Note: All odds are accurate as of 3:00 PM EST. according to FanDuel Sportsbook.

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Game 1: Phoenix Suns at New Orleans Pelicans (+4.5)

This is going to be a fun game to watch. The Suns have Devin Booker back after his bout with COVID-19. In addition, Jae Crowder has been playing more consistently as of late. Finally, Cameron Payne has done an excellent job of covering for Chris Paul while his thumb continues to heal. The Suns should absolutely destroy the New Orleans Pelicans on the road. They’ve proven throughout the season, and especially now without CP3 how in sync they are as a team, meaning that anyone could be on the floor for them and they’ll still probably win. CJ McCollum has played pretty well for New Orleans since arriving down there, but ultimately the 28-40 Pelicans are a losing team in the West whose postseason aspirations are in the rear-view mirror. Phoenix should win by five or more points comfortably tonight.

The Pick: Phoenix Suns -4.5 (-110)

Game 2: Memphis Grizzlies at Indiana Pacers (+7.5)

It’s no surprise that the Memphis Grizzlies are the clear favorites in tonight’s matchup against the Indiana Pacers. The Grizzlies should win this game comfortably but I wouldn't expect a blowout. I’m more interested in looking at the point total for this contest. This should be a high-scoring game, but not as high as the sportsbooks expect. While Memphis is the fourth highest-scoring team in the league (114.4 PPG), Indiana hovers around the league average with 110.7 PPG. For the Over to be reached tonight, at least nine more points would need to be scored than the averages produced by these two teams combined. I also think this could be a game with competitive defense. The matchup between Ja Morant and Tyrese Haliburton should be highly contested, which could impact the scoring averages of both players.

The Pick: Under 234.5 Total Points

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Same Game Parlay of The Night

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Game: Brooklyn Nets at Orlando Magic (+10.5)

Leg 1: Kyrie Irving Over 25.5 Points (-102)

Kyrie has scored bigger numbers as of late than he did when his 2021-2022 season began. Here is what he's produced over his last four games respectively: 38 points, 19 points, 50 points, and 22 points. According to these numbers and his current scoring average of 25.9 PPG on 47.6% shooting from the field this season, Kyrie is due to have a 30+ point scoring performance tonight in Orlando.

Leg 2: Franz Wagner Over 4.5 Rebounds (+102)

Franz Wagner has been a focal piece of Orlando’s lineup this season. As a rookie, Wagner has been very consistent this season. The 6’10" German has averaged 31.7 minutes per contest this season, producing 15.2 points and 4.7 rebounds per game. Brooklyn is ranked 13th among all NBA teams in FG attempts taken per game (88.5 FGA per game), which will give Wagner plenty of opportunities to grab at least five boards off the glass tonight.

Leg 3: Wendell Carter Jr Over 2.5 Assists (-130)

This is a prop I have taken before and one which has hit. I like taking bigs to produce over 2.5 assists. I took Joel Embiid last night on over 2.5 assists which he hit. Wendel Carter Jr. is averaging a 14.6-point and 10.4-rebound double-double this season. He’s still producing 2.7 assists per game. He’s also dished at least five assists in three of his last five games. Carter Jr. is a pretty efficient passer as a big man. He should produce at least three dimes in approximately 30 minutes of playing time at home against the Nets tonight.

Leg 4: Kyrie Irving Over 4.5 Rebounds (-108)

Kyrie Irving is averaging 36.2 MPG and has produced 4.6 rebounds per contest this season. This prop is really a coin flip but since Kyrie hasn’t had more than five rebounds in a few of his recent contests, I’m expecting a return to the mean against some undersized guards in Orland tonight.

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