nba best bets

Luka Doncic, Dallas Mavericks

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Tonight, we have two Conference Semifinal Game 3s.

In the East, the Miami Heat visits the Philadelphia 76ers for Game 3 after winning the first two games of this second-round series by double-digits. The second game of the night will feature the red-hot Chris Paul and the Phoenix Suns who head to Dallas also after winning the first two games of their series at home. Let’s take a look at some of the best bets and player props for both of tonight’s playoff matchups.

Please Note: All odds and lines are from FanDuel Sportsbook and were accurate at 10 AM EST. Be sure to check for line movement or odd changes.

Best Bets of the Night

Game: Miami Heat at Philadelphia 76ers +3 (MIA Leads 2-0)

Joel Embiid has officially been ruled out of Game 3 after having missed Games 1 and 2 due to an orbital fracture he sustained in Game 6 of Philadelphia's first-round series against the Toronto Raptors. As a result, the 76ers absolutely struggled to compete with the Miami Heat in the first two games of this Eastern Conference Semifinal.

Embiid’s absence from the rotation has allowed Miami’s bigs Bam Adebayo more space to dominate down low. In Game 1, Adebayo produced 24 points (8-10 FG), 12 rebounds, four assists, and one block. In Game 2, he similarly dominated in the paint for 23 points (7-11 FG), nine rebounds, and three assists. Without size in the paint, Philly is in trouble, and Miami is targeting their defense where they are weak. While DeAndre Jordan has seen approximately 15 MPG in Games 1 and 2, he simply cannot keep up with Adebayo’s strength, youth, and athleticism. In addition, Miami has been able to win big without their main ball-handler Kyle Lowry. Although he isn’t there to provide the 7.5 assists he averaged this season, Gabe Vincent has played respectably in 30+ MPG throughout his absence while Victor Oladipo’s added minutes allowed him to score 19 points (6-11 FG) in Game 2. Finally, James Harden has not been able to step it up on offense while Embiid has been sidelined. Harden scored just 16 points (5-13 FG) in Game 1, and 20 points (6-15 FG) in Game 2. The superstar scorer really became a play-maker for Philadelphia, averaging 10.5 assists per game since he joined the team. He’s adjusted his role in NBA games from sheer scorer to playmaker but is now being asked to score more with Embiid out. At least through the first two games of the series, Harden has not been able to score more than 20 points and converted well below 40% of his shots taken from the field in each contest. Philadelphia looks lost on the floor without Embiid and has no size in the paint to counter Adebayo or other Miami scorers looking to drive the ball. At the moment, it’s looking like Miami will extend their lead to 3-0 over the 76ers after tomorrow’s game.

The Pick: Miami Heat -3 (-112)

Game: Phoenix Suns at Dallas Mavericks -1 (PHX Leads 2-0)

Luka Doncic was visibly frustrated Wednesday night facing the Suns on the road. In Game 2, Doncic could be seen multiple times responding to heckles and insults from fans who successfully got in his head. Though he had another great offensive outing, he collapsed mentally in the fourth quarter which allowed Chris Paul and the Suns to capitulate. In the fourth quarter, CP3 erupted for 14 points making basket after basket without missing a shot. The Suns’ superstar ultimately had another impressive night finishing with 28 points (11-16 FG).

The Suns quickly extended their lead to 20+ points and the game was over midway through the fourth quarter, in which the Suns scored 40 points to Dallas’ 26. It's also important to know that a nice chunk of the Mavs’ 26 fourth-quarter points came in garbage time. While the Suns should win this series comfortably, the Mavericks will take Game 3. Though Doncic had a great night in Game 2 finishing with 35 points (13-22 FG), he collapsed mentally in the fourth quarter largely due to passionate yet obnoxious Suns fans. Tonight, Luka will score 40+ points with the Dallas crowd by his side. It’s likely that the Mavericks fans will retaliate, and try to affect CP3 and Devin Booker. While Phoenix should comfortably reach the Western Conference Finals, I like the Mavericks to bounce back at home with Luka Doncic feeding off of the Dallas crowd.

The Pick: Dallas Mavericks -1 (-112)

Tonight’s NBA Player Props

Game: Phoenix Suns at Dallas Mavericks -1 (PHX Leads 2-0)

Prop #1: Luka Doncic, Over 7.5 Assists (-130)

Luka Doncic’s scoring O/U is set at 34.5 points for tonight. While there is a good chance he drops over 40 points to bring a victory for the Mavericks in Game 3 at home, him dishing at least eight assists is more realistic. Over the last three games, Doncic has distributed eight, eight, and seven assists respectively. In Game 2, Doncic barely played in the fourth quarter (garbage time) which limited him to 36 minutes. Normally, he plays 40+ MPG in the playoffs. Doncic should hit 10+ assists in Dallas’ return home as they hope to bounce back against the Phoenix Suns.

Prop #2: Maxi Kleber, Over 1.5 Threes (-128)

Maxi Kleber emerged as an important scorer for the Mavericks specifically in Games 2 and 3 of their first-round series against the Utah Jazz. He shot for a combined 12-of-15 from downtown through those two games. Kleber went quiet for the rest of the series, to erupt for five-of-eight shooting from downtown in Game 1 against the Suns. While Kleber missed all three attempts from downtown on Wednesday night, he’s played approximately 25 MPG this postseason and has had multiple games over his last ten where he’s shot well above 60% from downtown. As a result, he has a great chance of knocking down at least two three-pointers tonight against the Suns.

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Tyler Herro (Left), Bam Adebayo (Right), Miami Heat

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Tonight we have two Second-Round Game 2 Matchups.

The first features the Embiid-less Philadelphia 76ers against the red-hot Miami Heat. Next, Chris Paul and the Phoenix Suns look to take a 2-0 lead over Luka Doncic and the Dallas Mavericks. Let's dive into tonight's best NBA bets and player props. And happy May the 4th to all you Star Wars fans out there.

Please Note: All odds and lines are from FanDuel Sportsbook and were accurate at 2 PM EST. Be sure to check for line movement or odd changes.

Best Bets of the Night

Game: Philadelphia 76ers at Miami Heat -8 (MIA Leads 1-0)

The Miami Heat kicked off their second-round series with a dominant 92-106 win over the Philadelphia 76ers. With Joel Embiid out of the lineup due to a concussion and a facial fracture (for which he will wear a mask upon return), the hope was that James Harden could step it up in scoring. Nonetheless, Harden only scored 19 points. In total, only three players on the 76ers (Harden, Maxey, & Harris) scored in double-figures.

In contrast, the Heat had five guys who scored 10+ points in Game 1. While Herro, Butler, and Abedayo should all be scoring double-digits every night, P.J. Tucker and Gabe Vincent are not expected to do so. Vincent only got there due to Kyle Lowry's absence in Game 1. Without Embiid in the paint, things looked a lot easier for Bam Adebayo who had 24 points (8-10 FG) and 12 rebounds on Monday night. The Heat should cover yet again and take a commanding 2-0 lead in the series.

The Pick: Miami Heat -8 (-110)

Game: Dallas Mavericks at Phoenix Suns -6.5 (PHO Leads 1-0)

Game 1 of this second-round series ended with the Phoenix Suns defending the home court with a final score of 121-114. Both teams shot well above 45% from the field in Game 1, and it truly came down to the wire. The Phoenix Suns covered the spread with clutch free throws in the last few minutes of the Game. In Game 2, Dallas could lose, but not by more than they did in Game 1. My guess would be that Dallas keeps it closer than they did in Game 1, and perhaps even squeeze out a Game 2 win on the road. The spread is one point greater tonight than it was in Game 1, further increasing Dallas’ chances of covering the spread. Nonetheless, the Mavericks are still looking to get their first win against the Suns altogether, as they have yet to defeat them in the regular season nor in the playoffs this year. If Luka Doncic continues to perform at an elite level, the Mavericks have a shot. That said, Maxi Kleber has become one of the most important players on the Mavs. His ability to hit threes and bring Deandre Ayton and JaVale McGee out of the paint is critical to the Mavericks' potential success.

The Pick: Dallas Mavericks +6.5 (-110)

NBA Player Props of the Night

Game: Philadelphia 76ers at Miami Heat -8 (MIA Leads 1-0)

Prop #1: Tobias Harris Over 19.5 Points

Tobias Harris has been a very reliable offensive player for the 76ers since the postseason began. In Game 1, the veteran wing shot very efficiently from the field and scored a team-high 27 points (11-18 FG). This regular season, Harris’ offensive numbers dropped to 17.2 PPG from approximately 19.5 PPG in both 2020 and 2019. However, Harris has re-emerged as one of Philly’s best offensive weapons. He’s scoring more than Harden, and should easily score at least 20 points tonight.

Prop #2: Tyler Herro Over 18.5 Points

Tyler Herro led all scorers for the Miami Heat in Game 1 with 25 points (9-17 FG) and went four-of-six from downtown. He also converted 50% of his shots in Game 5 of their first-round series against the Hawks and finished with 16 points. He honestly looked like the rookie sensation who emerged in the 2020 NBA Playoffs when he absolutely erupted in the bubble. The newly elected NBA Sixth Man of the Year is playing the part when it matters most.

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Steph Curry, Golden State Warriors

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Both Milwaukee and Golden State scored big road wins in Game 1 of their respective second-round series’.

Let’s take a look at what these series could look like after Game 2 tips off in Boston and Memphis. Tonight, we’ll check out the favorites, lines, and best bets in both series. We’ll also take a look at some NBA player props featuring Jaren Jackson Jr. and Stephen Curry that should hit comfortably in tonight’s Game 2 between the Golden State Warriors and the Memphis Grizzlies.

Please Note: All odds and lines are from FanDuel Sportsbook and were accurate at 2:30 PM EST. Be sure to check for line movement or odd changes.

Best Bets of the Night

Game: Milwaukee Bucks at Boston Celtics -5 (MIL Leads 1-0)

Although Giannis Antetokoumpo is playing basketball at an unbelievable level while the Celtics seemed to have no answers for him in Game 1, Boston should bounce back and take Game 2 at home by at least five points. Simply put, the Bucks bodied the Celtics and limited them to 89 points in Game 1. None of the Celtics’ best players shot above 35% from the field in Game 1. Jayson Tatum mustered an inefficient 21 points (6-18 FG), Marcus Smart scored produced 10 points (3-11 FG), and Jaylen Brown scored a measly 12 points (4-13 FG).

While Milwaukee shot a mediocre 41.1% from the field, they finished the game with 101 points. Giannis scored 24 (9-25 FG), Bobby Portis scored 15 (6-12 FG), and Jrue Holiday was incredibly clutch with Khris Middleton sidelined. He scored a game-high 25 points (8-20 FG). Therefore, the Bucks’ three best scorers shot 23-of-47 from the field compared to Boston’s top three weapons’ converting just 13-of-42. Tatum, Brown, and Smart combined drained just 31% of their shots.

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While Giannis continues to dominate, the Celtics seemingly have no answers on how to contain him. What is scary is that he had a mediocre night from the field and only scored 24 points. However, he contributed in every possible way, finishing with a 24-point, 13-rebound, and 12-assist triple-double. Despite his masterful performance in Game 1, I can guarantee you that Giannis was unsatisfied with his offensive efficiency shooting the ball. The Celtics have to rely on Robert Williams III in the paint, Al Horford, and a little bit of Grant Williams and Jayson Tatum to defend the Greek Freak.

Despite the Bucks' second-best player, Khris Middleton, out of the lineup, Bobby Portis, Wesley Matthews, and Pat Connaughton are doing a terrific job filling the void. The Bucks simply look unstoppable at the moment with their big lineup (Giannis at small forward, Portis at power forward, and Brook Lopez at center). Milwaukee could lose by four points and you’d still come out on top tonight. If the Celtics edge out a win tonight, odds are that it comes down to the wire. It also doesn’t help the Celtics that Marcus Smart is listed as questionable tonight. He will likely play through the injury but it was very evident that he was pushing through the pain at the conclusion of Game 1. Plus, the Bucks are 4-2 against the spread this postseason with the largest margin of victory (14.2 points per game) as well as the largest average number of points they cover the spread by (+
8.3 points per game ATS).

The Pick: Milwaukee Bucks +5 (-110)

Game: Golden State Warriors at Memphis Grizzlies +2 (GSW Leads 1-0)

Memphis’ Game 1 117-116 loss to the Golden Warriors was a nail-biter. Memphis played well but Ja Morant failed to produce another game-winning buzzer-beater as he did in Game 5 against the Minnesota Timberwolves in the first round.

As a team, the Warriors shot 48.4% (45-93 FG) from the field in Game 1, which is pretty darn good. Likewise, the Grizzlies converted a respectable 43.2% (41-95 FG) of their shots, which simply wasn’t enough to contain the fast-paced dangerous offense of the Warriors. Jordan Poole, who has been playing with more confidence this postseason than perhaps any other young star, had another huge night in Game 1.

If all three of the “new” Splash Brothers ball out, the Warriors are virtually unstoppable. Although Memphis is the No. 2 seed while the Warriors hold the No. 3 seed in the Western Conference, Golden State had the upper hand going into this series. They are now one game ahead of the Grizzlies and are looking to extend their lead in this series.

Considering Memphis already let one get away on their homecourt, tonight is a must-win for the Grizzlies. Memphis could lose this game, but my gut feeling tells me that they will rise to the occasion. Again, the Grizzlies played solid basketball. Besides Dillon Brooks and Desmond Bane who had rough nights from the field, Jaren Jackson Jr. scored 30 points (10-18 FG) alongside Ja Morant’s 34 points (45% from the field). If Memphis does lose, I think it will be as close as Game 1. Bane and Brooks had extremely off nights and they should bounce back in Game 2. If they do and Morant continues to play at this elite level, the Grizzlies should tie this series up before heading to Golden State for Game 3.

The Pick: Memphis Grizzlies ML (+110)

NBA Player Props of the Night

Game: Golden State Warriors at Memphis Grizzlies +2 (GSW Leads 1-0)

Prop #1: Jaren Jackson Jr. Over 14.5 Points (-120)

After a rough first-round series against the Minnesota Timberwolves, Jaren Jackson Jr. seems to have restored his offensive rhythm. While foul trouble continues to be a concern for the third-year big man, Jackson dropped 30 points in Game 1 despite a very close loss to the Golden State Warriors. Jackson averaged 16.3 points per game this season but with Steven Adams still out of the lineup, Jackson should see extended minutes. Brandon Clarke has been clutch off the bench but the Grizzlies seem to be at their best when Jackson is on the floor. The third-year big man should get plenty of opportunities especially after nailing 6-of-9 shots from beyond the arc in Game 1.

Prop #2: Stephen Curry 4+ Threes (-174)

The only elements that could prevent Curry from draining fewer than four three-pointers in this game are Klay Thompson and Jordan Poole. Both Thompson and Poole have exceeded expectations this postseason (Klay Thompson’s comeback has simply been glorious). Therefore, the only thing that could keep Curry from nailing four threes is the other sharp-shooters on the Warriors getting good open looks from downtown. Steph hit five threes in Game 1 out of 12 attempts. Likewise, Jordan Poole hit five threes while Klay Thompson hit three. Together, Poole, Curry, and Thompson attempted 32 three-pointers in Game 1. Nonetheless, Curry attempted 12 three-pointers and knocked down five of them. If Steph attempts approximately nine three-pointers, he would still have a good chance at hitting at least four of them. If he attempts 10 or more in Game 2, then this prop is practically a lock. Though Steph only shot 38% from downtown this season, he’s a different and much more ferocious player in the postseason. With his experience, reliability, and quick release, he should have no problem hitting at least four three-pointers in Game 2.

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If you wager $20 on a Same Game Parlay with our picks, you could make $93.45! And you are risking nothing!

  • Grizzlies ML
  • Jaren Jackson Jr. Over 14.5 points
  • Stephen Curry 4+ Threes

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Chris Paul, Phoenix Suns

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As we head into the Conference Semifinals, two Game 1s are on the schedule tonight.

The top seed in the Eastern Conference, the Miami Heat, will host James Harden and the Philadelphia 76ers. The second Game 1 of the night will feature Luka Doncic and the Dallas Mavericks taking on Chris Paul and the Phoenix Suns.

Best Bets of the Night

Game: Philadelphia 76ers at Miami Heat -7.5 (Game 1)

Despite Joel Embiid’s thumb injury and a small scare induced by a Toronto Raptors squad that was fighting for survival, the 76ers kick off their Eastern Conference Semi-Final tonight against the ferocious Miami Heat. Both of these teams are looking like the strongest coming out of the Eastern Conference this postseason (though don't count out the Bucks just because Khris Middleton is hurt as they dominated the Boston Celtics in Game 1 on Sunday). However, Joel Embiid will miss at least the first two games of this series due to a facial fracture and a concussion that the big man sustained in their Game 6 win over the Toronto Raptors.

While he could play through a torn ligament in his thumb, it is out of the question for him to play with such head injuries. For Embiid to miss the first two games of this series is simply devastating for the 76ers. If Embiid has a chance of clearing concussion protocols by Game 3 or 4, the 76ers might be able to survive. However, the Heat are dealing with injury issues of their own. Specifically, Kyle Lowry has been ruled out for Game 1 due to his hamstring injury, while Tyler Herro, Jimmy Butler, and Markieff Morris are all listed as game-time decisions for various reasons ahead of tonight’s game. While Embiid could be out for significant time during the second round and will be playing the rest of the postseason with a torn ligament in his thumb, the Heat have a few very short-term injuries that coach Spoelstra isn’t too worried about. “They feel like they have enough, we feel like we have enough. I guess probably both sides are ready to tip this thing up,” coach Spoelstra said. As it stands at the moment, Philadelphia is in trouble and looks like they will lose their first two second-round games by double digits without Embiid available. Then again, crazier things have occurred. Don't completely count the Sixers out but the Heat should cover the spread tonight.

The Pick: Miami Heat -7.5

Game: Dallas Mavericks at Phoenix Suns -5.5 (Game 1)

Despite New Orleans’ hard work in trying to fend off the Suns, Chris Paul’s perfect night from the field in Game 6 demonstrated why CP3 is more versatile than just a pass-first point guard. The reigning Western Conference champions are the clear-cut favorites in Game 1, especially on their home floor. The truth is that Dallas lacks size in the post which will allow guys like Deandre Ayton and even JaVale McGee to have very efficient nights. Simply put, both of Phoenix’s true centers have the advantage over the Mavs’ bigs Dwight Powell and Maxi Kleber in the paint. That said, Kleber can stretch the floor due to his three-point accuracy. Neither Ayton nor McGee are reliable in defending the perimeter. They are both much more comfortable as defensive anchors down low in the paint. That said, the Suns have tons of momentum after Chris Paul's record-breaking performance when he converted all 14 of his shots in Game 6 against the Pelicans. Ayton also seems to have found his groove in the playoffs. And although Ayton isn't a great perimeter defender, he has the size and strength to dominate on the offensive end of the floor against Powell and Kleber.

In Game 1, we’ll see this mismatch in front of our eyes, and will be one of the main reasons why the Suns are able to pull off the big Game 1 win. Injuries aren’t a factor going into this series. With the exception of Tim Hardaway Jr. for the Mavericks and Dario Saric for the Suns, both teams are entirely healthy and ready to go. This regular season, the Suns and the Mavericks faced off three times and Phoenix won all three contests. To kick off their Western Conference Semifinals on their home floor, the Suns could win by double-digits in Game 1.

The Pick: Phoenix Suns -5.5

NBA Player Props of the Night

Game: Dallas Mavericks at Phoenix Suns -5.5 (Game 1)

Prop: Chris Paul Over 16.5 Points

Jose Alvarado and Herbert Jones are out of the way for Chris Paul now. He’ll have to worry about Dallas’ guards who are primarily excellent offensive players. They certainly will be less focused on smothering CP3 on the court than the New Orleans rookies. Finally, Chris Paul is coming off of a record-setting historical Game 6 performance where he shot a perfect 14-14 from the field to carry the Suns to the Western Conference Semifinals. Even with Devin Booker back in the lineup, expect Paul to drop 17+ points in Game 1.

Prop: Devin Booker Over 2.5 Three-Pointers Made

Devin Booker made a surprise appearance in Game 6 when he was previously expected to miss the remainder of the first-round series due to his hamstring injury. In 32 minutes on the floor in Game 6, D-Book went one-of-six from downtown. However, he shot 50% or above from downtown, converting four-of-eight threes in Game 1. Additionally, he went bonkers in Game 2 with seven three-pointers on just 11 attempts. Tonight, he’ll make at least three buckets from downtown.

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