Phoenix Suns
Tonight, we have Game 5s between two Conference Semi-Finals that are all tied up at two games apiece.
Philadelphia managed to win both Games 3 and 4 at home, despite the orbital fracture and the other injury issues affecting Joel Embiid. Tonight, Miami will look to put them in their place. After that, the Suns return to Phoenix where they host Luka Doncic and the Mavericks. Jason Kidd’s defensive adjustments after the first two games of the series have caused nightmares for Chris Paul and Devin Booker who both played inefficiently over the last two games in Dallas. Let’s take a look at tonight’s best NBA Playoffs bets and player props.
Please Note: All odds and lines are from FanDuel Sportsbook and were accurate at 4 PM EST. Be sure to check for line movement or odd changes.
Best Bets of the Night
Game: Philadelphia 76ers at Miami Heat (Series Tied 2-2)
Despite Joel Embiid’s injuries, the big man has managed to lead his team to decisive home victories in Games 3 and 4 to even up the series. While some thought Embiid’s orbital fracture was an indication that the Heat would win this series in about five games, this Eastern Conference Semi-Final couldn’t be closer. One of the main issues for the Heat has been poor shooting from the field. For example, Tyler Herro scored 14 points (5-15 FG) in Game 3, and 11 points (4-12 FG) in Game 4. Over the last two games, Herro has combined for 9-of-27 shooting from the field, which is just not enough. In Games 1 and 2, Herro shot above 50% from the field each and scored at least 18 points. Even though Jimmy Butler scored 33 points (12-22 FG) in Game 3, and an impressive 40 points (13-20 FG) in Game 4, it still wasn’t enough to secure wins on the road against Philly. It was in Game 3 that the Heat played particularly badly as a team. They only scored 79 points (27-77 FG) on an atrocious 35.1% shooting from the field. Philly shot 47.8% from the field in the contest with efficiency from some typically quiet players. Danny Green stood out for a stellar scoring night, scoring 21 points on seven-of-nine shooting from deep (all of his FGs were three-pointers). Tonight, the Heat are in trouble as Kyle Lowry has been ruled out while the team has a long list of players listed as questionable for Game 5.
Though the Heat played better in Game 4, Bam Adebayo and Jimmy Buckets were the only two players who shot above 50% from the field. In fact, Adebayo and Butler combined for 22-of-32 (or 68.8 FG%) shooting from the field while the rest of the team only converted 16-of-50 field goal attempts (32 FG%). Tyler Herro needs to wake up on the offensive end and provide support for Bam and Butler who cannot carry their team every night. Herro has owned up to his inefficiency over the last few games and is poised to turn it around in Game 5. In their return to Miami, the Heat will wake up and secure a strong win before heading back to Philly for Game 6.
The Pick: Miami Heat - 3 (-110)
Game: Dallas Mavericks at Phoenix Suns -6 (Series Tied 2-2)
In this series, the fans have played a huge role. Both Luka Doncic and Chris Paul have gotten into uncomfortable situations with fans who are talking trash (and definitely going too far). Without getting into who is right or wrong (fans or players), the fact is that the home crowds have negatively impacted the performance of the visiting stars. For that reason, expect Luka and the Mavericks to struggle tonight. In addition, Chris Paul has truly played horribly over the last two games. He finished Game 4 with five points and seven assists before fouling out early in the fourth quarter. In Game 3, Dallas’ defense held him to 12 points (5-9 FG) and only four assists. Jason Kidd is due some credit for the coaching adjustments he’s made. Specifically, he’s given Frank Nitlikina significant minutes off the bench over the last two games to contain Devin Booker and Chris Paul. Nitlikina’s wingspan and stellar defensive play have worked great. However, NBA Coach of the Year Monty Williams knows this and will have a game plan to counter Kidd’s successful tactics. Phoenix will bounce back in Game 5 feeding off of the home crowd’s energy. In addition, I suspect Monty Williams will have some answers tonight to counter Jason Kidd's highly effective defense from Games 3 and 4.
The Pick: Phoenix Suns - 6 (-114)
NBA Player Props
Game: Dallas Mavericks at Phoenix Suns -6 (Series Tied 2-2)
Prop: Jae Crowder Over 10.5 Points (-118)
While Jason Kidd has turned on his defense to contain Devin Booker and Chris Paul, he doesn’t have enough bodies to guard every Phoenix Sun. Jae Crowder has produced efficiently throughout this series and has a great chance of hitting at least 11 points in 30+ minutes at home tonight.
Prop: Chris Paul Over 16.5 Points (-106)
Over the last two games, Chris Paul has only recorded a combined 17 points. Defensive changes made by Jason Kidd paid off in Games 3 and 4. Monty Williams and the Suns were not prepared for the changes made by the Mavericks' defense. Upon their return home, they will have answers. Expect at least 20 points from Paul in Phoenix in Game 5.
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