It's a common practice to load up on offense and as many top tier starting pitchers early in fantasy baseball drafts.
It's not until the mid rounds do you start to see relief pitchers coming off the board. The purpose of this article isn't to persuade you to reach on the top closers available, but rather to give you a different strategy to utilize during your draft if things start to fall apart.
Most people will play in a standard Yahoo! weekly head to head format. Meaning managers will play opponents for a week at a time, accumulating points in a variety of categories. Most leagues will include categories such as wins, losses, ERA (earned run average), WHIP (walks and hits per nine innings pitched), strikeouts, saves and a newer category we've been seeing more of is the combination of saves and holds into one category.
This is due to the fact that many people don't like having to draft and keep up with closers. There are only a handful of closers that have enough job security warrant a mid round selection in fantasy drafts. By combining the saves and holds category it allows fantasy managers to worry less about grabbing a closer and instead on getting quality relievers who don't necessarily have to get saves.
Most leagues will still run with a more traditional setup though and that means either splitting saves and holds into two separate categories or not having a holds category and only including a saves category for relief pitchers (as this has always been the equivalent to "wins" for starting pitchers).
For the purposes of this article we are looking at pitching stat categories of Wins, Losses, Saves, Strikeouts, ERA, and WHIP.
Obviously starting pitchers will be who you turn to in order to make up most of your wins and strikeouts. Closers are going to get your saves. You hope that all your pitchers help to limit your weekly losses. ERA and WHIP are categories that are representative of how consistently your players perform.
If a starter goes out in the first inning and gives up four runs and gets replaced he ends the day with a 36.00 ERA. But if that starter goes eight innings not allowing another run, he finishes the day with a 4.5 ERA. A player like Gerrit Cole or Max Scherzer is going to be given the opportunity to overcome bad starts. A backend rotation guy that happened to land on your roster may not.
Gerrit Cole gets Didi on three pitches: 83 mph curveball 98 mph fastball 90 mph changeup (!!) https://t.co/If9H2gaWda— Talkin' Yanks (@Talkin' Yanks)1615488218.0
If you are a fantasy manager that is lucky enough to land some top end starters early in the draft, you know that you have the ability to turn to building your offense in the mid rounds and are probably putting getting relievers on the bottom of the priority list.
That's good for you if you are one of the managers that missed on the Jacob deGrom's and Yu Darvish's of the world.
Jacob deGrom faced 9 Astros tonight. He struck out 7 of them. 🔥🔥🔥🔥🔥🔥🔥 https://t.co/qQGFwupF6m— SNY (@SNY)1615509255.0
I've never personally prioritized getting starting pitching when playing in a head to head format. The reason for this is, I instead focus on getting strong relievers to pad my teams' stats. This also allows me to be adding bats to my roster with my first few (usually four or five) picks giving me an edge offensively in my matchups.
Okay that's step one. Gain an offensive advantage by ignoring starting pitching early.
Now even though this is about using bullpen guys to help you win, after adding a few top tier position players I typically will grab one or two starting pitchers here. Get the best available that will help you in at least three categories. A guy like Dallas Keuchel is a perfect example. In 2020, Keuchel, went 6-2 in 11 starts with a 1.99 ERA, 1.09 WHIP. But only accounted for 42 strikeouts over 63 and 1/3 innings.
Lucas Giolito. Dallas Keuchel. Lance Lynn. You absolutely love to see it. https://t.co/ipf8Hx0cCO— Chicago White Sox (@Chicago White Sox)1607814006.0
This is the opposite of a sexy fantasy pick. It is so boring that you may want to shotgun a Red Bull before hitting the draft button on him. But it's laying the foundation for building the rest of your pitching staff up.
After grabbing a few starters, now you may want to start picking off relievers in rounds 7-10. This seems really early, I know. But remember this is a different strategy and you've got four studs on offense already in the draft.
So here's a quick snap shot of how I break down the relief pitcher "tiers".
Liam Hendriks looks like the kid on your little league team who slept in his uniform the night before picture day b… https://t.co/60NTBTHxm2— Jessica Kleinschmidt (@Jessica Kleinschmidt)1615424914.0
Josh Hader MIL
Liam Hendriks CWS
Aroldis Chapman NYY
Brad Hand WSH
Kenley Jansen LAD
Fun fact: James Karinchak had the 7th highest BB% among qualified relievers last season. However, since he punches… https://t.co/rcWyYsj5Yn— The Stable (@The Stable)1615477383.0
Edwin Diaz NYM
James Karinchak CLE
Drew Pomeranz SD
Raisel Iglesias LAA
Craig Kimbrel CHC
Kirby Yates TOR
Next Best (it's pretty early to really know enough about a lot of these guys)
Get to know the guys on the 40-man roster! RHP Ryan Pressly had an impressive Spring Training debut, striking out… https://t.co/J3QxCkw3TT— Houston Astros (@Houston Astros)1615328454.0
Ryan Pressly HOU
Rafael Montero SEA
Archie Bradley PHI
Greg Holland KC
Richard Rodriguez PIT
Jake Diekman OAK
Jose Leclerc TEX
Will Smith ATL
Joakim Soria ARI
Daniel Bard COL
Matt Barnes BOS
So from this list you can see there aren't a lot of closers with clearly defined roles. There are far more options that might be the closer or that are hanging on by the thinnest of threads. I try to seek out three of what I consider to be top 10 relievers. They can be non-closers. I drafted Josh Hader before he was a closer in this spot and would draft someone like Devin Williams in this spot now. Just make sure that the players you're getting here are consistent and can get you saves if he isn't the primary closer.
Most important is that these relievers will consistently lower your team's weekly ERA, WHIP, and contribute to strikeouts. Some weeks your best starter only pitches once. If three of my best pitchers are relievers they are going to have much more exposure to playing throughout the course of a week and thus giving my fantasy team more chances for my best pitchers to rack up stats for me.
Step two complete. Gain an advantage in relief pitching against opponents.
Considering in fantasy baseball there's really only three ways to score: offensive stats, stats that starting pitchers primarily get, and stats that relief pitchers primarily get, you've put yourself in a good mathematical situation to win on a week to week basis.
Try this strategy in a few mock drafts and see how the roster shakes out. Keep checking back for more things fantasy baseball before your draft happens this month.
It's another eventful week in the NFL.
Four teams -- the Jets, Falcons, Saints, and 49ers -- are the first teams to get a bye week. After Tom Brady and the Tampa Bay Buccaneers narrowly escaped Thursday Night Football with a 28-22 victory over the Philadelphia Eagles, the reigning Super Bowl champs are the first team with five wins in the league. Who will join them on Sunday? We know that we'll get at least a second five-win team since the 4-1 Ravens are hosting the 4-1 Chargers. That is going to be an epic battle, so let's start with that clash of AFC contenders. Welcome to our Week 6 NFL Best Bets.
Playing on the road is a difficult task for any team, but if any team can escape with a victory, it's Justin Herbert and the Chargers. This isn't the Chargers of the last decade. This team is winning the close battles. Herbert is playing at an MVP level this season and already has led this team to big-time wins over the Kansas City Chiefs and Cleveland Browns -- two of the top teams in the AFC. This L.A. team is deep at the skill positions, can rush the passer, has an improved offensive line and a great young coach. What's not to like?
All that said, Lamar Jackson seems to be playing as he did during his 2019 MVP campaign. Not to mention, Marquise "Hollywood" Brown is actually catching passes. He eclipsed 100 yards last week and scored two touchdowns (including the game-winning catch in overtime). Simply put, this is a tough team to bet against. It did take last-second heroics for the Ravens to beat the winless Lions and a pretty pedestrian Colts team. Overall, Baltimore hasn't faced a test like this yet this season. Take the points and the better overall squad. Chargers may win this game, but if they don't, they are not going to lose by more than a field goal.
PICK: Chargers +3.5
It's been a tough start to the season for the Chiefs. They had great odds to return to the Super Bowl and are now last in the AFC West heading into Week 16 with a 2-3 record. They desperately need this game. This is a great opportunity for the Chiefs to prove they are still elite by defeating a team that made the postseason last year on the road. The Chiefs are going to turn it around against a Washington defense that is allowing the sixth-most passing yards and second-most passing touchdowns this season. Patrick Mahomes is going to blow up. Tyreek Hill is going to dominate. Travis Kelce is going to continue to provide a steady source of receptions down the middle of the field. As long as the Chiefs' offensive line holds against Chase Young, it's going to be a long day for Washington's defense. Betting on Mahomes to right the ship isn't a really difficult choice.
PICK: Chiefs -6.5
Yes, the Texans are one of the worst teams in the league. Betting on them on the road against a divisional rival might seem crazy at first. However, the Texans are 7-3 against the spread as underdogs in their last 10 games. Plus, the Colts are emotional after completely giving away the game against the Ravens in which they blew a 22-3 lead late in the game. This is going to cause a bit of a hangover in that locker room. When New England suffered a terrible loss against Tom Brady and the Bucs, the Texans managed to cover the spread the following week. Look for history to repeat itself. Texans coach David Culley has Houston playing hard in spite of its lack of talent and quarterback Davis Mills appeared to take a step forward last week against the Pats. Houston has played pretty good pass defense, too. The Texans have allowed only seven passing TDs this season.
PICK: Texans +9
Sunday night will be an interesting matchup to watch as Geno Smith will make his first start in four years as the Seahawks travel to Pittsburgh to take on the Steelers. I hate betting on Ben Roethlisberger, but it's hard to envision the Seahawks covering the spread without the services of Russell Wilson. And as much as I think Big Ben should hang up his cleats, you have to give him credit for the way he dominated a solid Broncos defense last week. Roethlisberger looked better than he did earlier in the season and was able to get the ball to his playmakers -- Diontae Johnson, Chase Claypool, and running back Najee Harris. Seattle's defense is one of the worst in the league and their secondary is even worse than their front seven. Look for the Steelers to light up Seattle in the passing game.
PICK: Steelers -5
Both of these offenses can put up a lot of points, though they go about it very differently. The Browns are a run-heavy team, and even though they will be without the services of Nick Chubb, Kareem Hunt is more than capable of getting the job done. Meanwhile, Arizona's offense runs through electric quarterback Kyler Murray. Murray is able to move the chains with his legs but he isn't afraid to toss the ball either. He loves getting his guys involved and his weapons are elite in DeAndre Hopkins, Rondale Moore, and Christian Kirk.
The Browns are coming off an 89-point slugest with the Chargers and hit the OVER in their other game against a high-end offense in a 33-29 loss to the Chiefs. Meanwhile, the Cardinals have scored 30-plus points in four of five games this year. Smash the OVER.
PICK: OVER 49.5
Week 2 of the NFL was full of breakout performances, thrilling finishes and potentially the start of the Justin Fields era in the NFC North as the Bears' win over the Bengals finds them in first place in the division.
We cap off the week with a Monday Night Football showdown between the Packers and the Lions with the winner finding themselves tied for first in the North. The Packers put up an absolute dud of a performance last week against the Saints in Week 1 while the Lions looked surprisingly effective while playing catch-up against the West-leading 49ers. The expectations for these two teams couldn't have been further apart coming into the season but with matching 0-1 starts on the books, I think there are a couple of interesting props and roster construction angles to exploit.
NFL DFS Showdown Picks
*Prices are from DraftKings
Captain: TE T.J. Hockenson, Detroit Lions ($9,600) ($14,400)
I'm normally not a fan of playing a tight end in the captain spot, but T.J. Hockenson is not your average tight end. He finished 2020 with an elite 18% target share in the Lions' offense and picked up right where he left off in Week 1, finishing with an 18.2% share on 50 routes run last week. Hockenson has always carried premium TD upside as a red-zone target but what was most encouraging about last week was that he ran nearly 55% of his routes out of the slot, leaving him a matchup against Chandon Sullivan, who's allowing a 67% catch rate in his coverage. In a game where the Lions are projected to be down early, expect Hockenson to get fed once again. His red-zone utilization gives him enough juice to take the captain's chair in my builds.
Core Consideration: QB Jared Goff, Detroit Lions ($10,000)
Two principles I take into Showdown slates apply to this play. Generally speaking, if I have a pass-catcher as my captain, I'm finding a way to get their QB into a flex spot. The second is that your build needs to tell a story. Mine is that the Packers come out with something to prove after getting embarrassed in Week 1 and that we'll likely see upwards of 50 pass attempts from Jared Goff as he attempts to mount a comeback. Goff is a surprisingly effective passer when getting good protection and this unit gave him a clean pocket on 86.7% of snaps last week. Expect that to continue tonight as Goff will continue to feast in garbage time.
Contrarian Play: WR Randall Cobb, Green Bay Packers ($2,000)
I still chuckle at the thought of the return of Randall Cobb being on the short-list of demands from Aaron Rodgers in the midst of his holdout. I do, however, think there is something to be said about the importance of chemistry between a quarterback and his receiver and I expect that in a typical game (which Week 1 was not), Aaron Rodgers is going to find his spots to get Cobb involved. In a game script that figures to have the Packers up by a healthy margin, not many are going to look at the tertiary passing options for Green Bay and I think a $2,000 Randall Cobb could sneak in a handful of receptions at single-digit ownership..
Salary Relief: WR Amon-Ra St. Brown, Detroit Lions ($2,400)
This one fits perfectly into my narrative for the game as well. In a game where the Lions are likely to flirt with 50+ pass attempts and coming off a week where St. Brown ran routes on 75% of the team's passing plays, I will be overweight on Amon-Ra tonight. Lining up in the slot on 74.5% of plays means St. Brown will primarily see coverage from Chandon Sullivan, the most favorable of the options GB lines up in their defensive secondary. Expect St. Brown to see his target volume increase tonight. If Detroit can be more effective in getting to the red zone, he carries decent scoring upside with the way he's utilized in this offense. Plus, who doesn't love the extra motivation of playing against their big bro?
Monday Night Football Best Bets
Taking a look at the wagering side of this game; before we determine anything else we must ask ourselves what we think of these Green Bay Packers. I tend to look at last week's performance as the exception and not the rule. With that being the case, I am laying the 11.5 points and taking GB tonight. Over the past six seasons, oddsmakers have been fairly sharp when it comes to these larger spreads and NFL teams cover double-digit spreads more than 55% of the time. The total for tonight is sitting at 48.5 and given the somewhat surprising ability of the Lions to make up ground last week, I am confidently on the "over" side of that line.
Picks: Packers -11.5, OVER 48.5 points
Taking a look at the prop market, I am again mainly investing in the "GB Blowout" narrative:
D'Andre Swift: OVER 28.5 Receiving Yard
Coming off a 65-yard performance in a very similar game script, this one feels like a no-brainer. Swift averages nearly 8 yards per reception so this really boils down to whether you think he catches more than 3 passes. I certainly do and I'm confidently on the OVER for this prop. FanDuel is currently carrying the best odds at -110.
T.J. Hockenson: Anytime TD
I'm not the biggest fan of these "to score" props, but I'll break from the norm with this one. I am projecting the Lions to at least have a go at it in this game and there simply isn't a scenario where that doesn't involve a score for Hockenson. +220 odds at FanDuel sort of feels like stealing given that I see this game going over the 48.5 total.
AJ Dillon | UNDER 8.5 Rushing Attempts
I know that the betting public is forecasting a fairly comfortable win for the Packers, but let's not get carried away. AJ Dillon would have to nearly double his career average for carries to get to this number. Plus, it's a bit unlikely that this game gets so far out of reach that Green Bay brings in their backups. Even last week when they did bring in the second-stringers, Dillon only saw 4 carries. I'm expecting Aaron Jones to have a monster day on the ground, as evidenced by my Saturday article.
Week 1 is in the books and it's time to move on to the best bets in Week 2.
If you listened to my article earlier this week, you would have started 1-0 for taking the Giants with the points against Washington in that thriller of a matchup Thursday night. Now, let's dive into Week 2's best NFL bets.
Tennessee Titans/Seattle Seahawks Over 54
The Seahawks' offense was high-flying in the first half last week. Because the Colts never really threatened the outcome of the game, the Seahawks were able to take the air out of the ball and finish the game with an easy win while only scoring seven in the second half. While both the Titans' defense and offense looked atrocious, expect Ryan Tannehill and Derrick Henry to have big bounce-back weeks and make this an epic high-scoring game. This has all the makings for a shootout in which both teams put up 30-plus points.
Cincinnati Bengals +2.5 @ Chicago Bears
Until that Monday night game, the Bengals had the honor of winning the craziest Week 1 game over the Vikings in overtime. The Bears' defense, which is supposed to be their strength, looked awful against the Rams, including one of the most blown coverages you'll ever see on Cooper Kupp's long touchdown. It was simply an awful week for the Bears. I don't think it gets any better until they remove Dalton and promote Justin Fields. If they don't do that prior to game time, the Bengals will run away with this one.
Los Angeles Rams -3.5 @ Indianapolis Colts
Coming out of Week 1 the Rams looked great on both sides of the ball. Matthew Stafford had a great first game, going 20 for 26 with three touchdowns. The Colts... They didn't look that great on either side of the ball. While Carson Wentz's overall numbers didn't look bad, most of the yardage and one of his two TDs came in the fourth quarter as they were chasing from two or more scores back, never actually threatening to win the game. I'm leaning towards the Rams winning this in a blowout and would consider alternate spreads.
Arizona Cardinals -3.5 vs. Minnesota Vikings
Kyler Murray appears to be a man on a mission to avenge last season's bitter ending after absolutely torching the Tennesee Titans in Nashville. The Vikings' defense, who hasn't been as formidable as years past, is going to have their hands full with Kyler. Last week they allowed Joe Burrow to complete nearly 80% of his passes, and Burrow isn't a threat to run nor has a receiver as talented as DeAndre Hopkins. If the Vikings offense doesn't step up and make this a shootout, things could get ugly in Phoenix.
Dallas Cowboys + 3.5 @ Los Angeles Chargers
Dak Prescott looked great in Week 1 and if there were any issues with his shoulder after throwing 58 times, he had 10 days to get healed up again and ready for the Chargers. I can almost guarantee, whenever the Cowboys go to play either Los Angeles team in their stadium, that there will be more Cowboys fans than LA fans. So while they aren't playing in Jerry World, they'll have more fan support. My concern for Justin Herbert and the Chargers is their efficiency in the red zone. His most potent weapons in Keenan Allen and Austin Ekeler become less effective as they get closer to the goal line. That leaves Jared Cook and Mike Williams as your bigger bodies in the red zone, which isn't ideal. The Cowboys have a decent chance to win this one outright, but you can take the points for some cushion.
- Cowboys ML (+160)
- Titans +6.5 (-105)
- Steelers ML (-225)
- Rams -3.5 (-110)
Five Props To Consider
- Calvin Ridley OVER 6.5 receptions (+115)
- Tyrod Taylor OVER 34.5 Pass Attempts (-105)
- Aaron Jones OVER 88.5 combined yards (-115)
- Nick Chubb OVER 17.5 carries (-120)
- James Robinson OVER 9.5 carries (-125)
All five of these props have an excellent chance at hitting. I like the idea of wagering a three-leg prop parlay with the last three props listed (Jones, Chubb and J-Rob). Thanks me on Monday.