Here's Who to Drop, Swap, and Shop for Week 4
The first three weeks have resembled preseasons more than any regular NFL season, as teams have sought to build chemistry after massive roster changes and unexpected injuries.
If you're a fantasy owner, you're learning how to deal with changes on your own team. First-round picks Christian McCaffrey, Davante Adams and Julio Jones were all sidelined in Week 3—and if you had Saquon Barkley, well, you had him.
With all of that in mind, here are some suggestions on who to drop from your roster, who you may want to swap on the trade block, and who you may want to shop in free agency.
NFL: Dallas Cowboys at Seattle Seahawks Joe Nicholson-USA TODAY Sports
In three weeks, the Seahawks offense has already had a historic season with an MVP-caliber Russell Wilson at his finest and D.K. Metcalf and Tyler Lockett proving to be one of the best WR duos in the league.
Meanwhile, the Seahawks defense is also breaking records, but it's for all the wrong reasons: this year's team is the first to allow more than 1,200 yards in three games, with an astounding 497 yards allowed per game.
For that reason alone, it's worth picking up another defense if you can, although pickings are honestly quite slim throughout the NFL. If Seattle can't get it together, it may be worth researching other D/ST options in the weeks to come.
NFL: New York Jets at Buffalo Bills Rich Barnes-USA TODAY Sports
You probably don't have him anymore, but if you do, it's time to let go.
Yes, I know it's Le'Veon Bell, the former fantasy first-rounder who earned enough points to let you coast into playoffs in the past.
But that was then, and this is now—and now doesn't look so great for Bell. He hasn't been the same since he took a gap year and joined the Jets, and he's sidelined on IR until at least Week 5. I know he's the starting RB for the Jets, but I don't think this is going to be a good season for the Jets. After all, the run game only works if you're ahead, and the Jets look like they'll be pummeled for the remainder of the season. But if you are going to let him go, you may as well trade him to someone in your league who's still willing to give him a shot, because there definitely is someone in your league who still thinks that.
.@damienwoody is absolutely FED UP with New York football. "[The Jets and the Giants] are disgusting to watch on t… https://t.co/FlYj7r2sNi— Get Up (@Get Up) 1601564300.0
NFL: Los Angeles Rams Scrimmage Kirby Lee-USA TODAY Sports
Cam Akers entered the season as the starting back for the LA Rams, but injuries and committees have changed things for him.
Akers has been sidelined since the beginning of Week 2 with a rib injury, and in his place, Malcolm Brown and Darrell Henderson have stepped up. If you got Henderson over Brown, you've probably landed the more productive back, who managed 12 carries for 81 yards and a touchdown, as well as two catches for 40 yards.
Even when Akers does return and inevitably gets some touches, Henderson has been too good to be shoved back down the depth chart.
All I know is if #2 was named Cam Akers Twitter would be unbearable right now. But since he got hurt and sat behin… https://t.co/jjxjnGdZmd— Fantasy Scouts 24/7 (@Fantasy Scouts 24/7) 1601573369.0
If you have to make room, let go of Akers for now—whatever happens this season, he probably won't be the starting Rams back you thought he'd be.
NFL: Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Denver Broncos Ron Chenoy-USA TODAY Sports
The legendary tight end has barely made a dent in an improving Bucs offense—that is, until this week. After head coach Bruce Arians claimed that "we're not throwing it 50 times to the tight ends—that's what we have receivers for," Tom Brady sought to make opportunities for Gronkowski with seven targets and six receptions for 48 yards. Although you want any starting player to make at least 10 points in the game, consider the fact that Brady overthrew a wide-open Gronk in the end zone, which easily would have put Gronk around 15 fantasy points in most leagues.
His snap percentage went up to 93 percent in Week 3, meaning that Gronk is likely to be more involved in the passing game.
However, considering his first two weeks, it's still possible that Arians doesn't want to air it out to the tight end. If you're feeling uncertain about Gronk in the weeks to come, or you're nervous about his split usage with O.J. Howard, see if anyone in your league is interested in a trade for this TE2 with room to grow.
Syndication: The Tennessean George Walker IV / Tennessean.com via Imagn Content Services, LLC
I saw Jonnu Smith sitting on someone's bench in Week 3, which is a shameful waste, considering the Titans TE hauled in 5 of 8 targets for 61 yards… and two touchdowns. That's at least 20 fantasy points, depending on your league.
YAC leaders by position this season: RB: Alvin Kamara (145) WR: Terry McLaurin (115) TE: Jonnu Smith/ Darren Walle… https://t.co/CfYTZKJzEq— PFF (@PFF) 1601219823.0
With A.J. Brown out, Jonnu is the star of the Titans passing game, and why not? Tight ends have proven to be capable receivers who can change the game, yet somehow, dependable Travis Kelce is never a first-round fantasy pick.
It's about time we stop overlooking TE production, which means that if you have Jonnu and don't need him, don't let him languish on your bench. He's good enough to score an RB2 or WR2 if you need one, and he may even rise in value in weeks to come. Trade him, or trade for him, just make sure he's on a roster. Tennessee's Week 4 game against the Steelers has been postponed, but Smith is a valuable target for the rest of 2020.
NFL: Green Bay Packers at New Orleans Saints Derick E. Hingle-USA TODAY Sports
Veteran receiver Emmanuel Sanders has been through significant change in the past year: from starting last year as a Bronco, to joining the Super Bowl contending 49ers, to joining the pass-happy Saints in New Orleans.
When cornerstone receiver Michael Thomas got injured in Week 1, it looked like Sanders might get more opportunities in his absence. That hasn't exactly been the case, as Drew Brees has opted for quick tosses to Alvin Kamara and a few lobs to Tre'Quan Smith rather than utilizing the veteran wide out.
With Thomas looking to return in Week 4, it could be time to see what you can get for Sanders now. He's by no means terrible and should definitely be rostered, but he's going to need to see more action if he wants to join a starting lineup. If you can package him along with someone else, it's certainly worth considering.
NFL: Tennessee Titans at Minnesota Vikings Brad Rempel-USA TODAY Sports
Former LSU players have been faring decently so far in the NFL, as Joe Burrow has lost two close games with the Bengals and Clyde Edwards-Helaire has been stunning as the Chief's explosive new feature back. In Week 3, the Vikings WR3 finally had his moment to shine as he hauled in 7 of 9 targets for 175 yards and a touchdown.
Justin Jefferson so far today: 7 Rec 175 Yards 1 TD Breakout game for the rook 💥 (via @Vikings) https://t.co/DvLUaRzXWg— NFL on ESPN (@NFL on ESPN) 1601234261.0
Clearly a replacement for Stefon Diggs, Jefferson is quickly carving out a role on the Vikings offense that is expected to expand in the weeks to come. Let's just hope you're not like me and you dropped him right before Week 3, only to spend a third of your fantasy budget to get him back in Week 4—he's just that worth it.
NFL: Kansas City Chiefs at Baltimore Ravens Tommy Gilligan-USA TODAY Sports
The Chiefs have been, well, the Chiefs, and while Patrick Mahomes likes to spread it around, there should be enough for Watkins that warrants a pickup.
.@sammywatkins using tempo to sell the post before snapping down and breaking to the out. Watch how he slightly ra… https://t.co/Mkfc7x6JyO— Receiver School (@Receiver School) 1601421312.0
Watkins saw the most snaps on Monday with 65 out of 75, meaning he's expected to be on the field for the remainder of the season. Ignoring a poor Week 2 performance in which Watkins was injured halfway through, he's put up decent numbers with 7 catches for 82 yards and a touchdown in Week 1, and 7 of 8 targets for 62 yards in Week 3.
Watkins is clearly getting snaps and targets, and again, considering the Chiefs offense, he stands to get several receptions and maybe a touchdown most weeks. For now, Watkins could be started as a flex, unless you'd like to wait a week to see if he produces once again.
NFL: San Francisco 49ers at New York Giants Robert Deutsch-USA TODAY Sports
George Kittle was the fantasy TE breakout star last year—but this year, things haven't been looking great at the 49ers TE spot. Kittle has been sidelined with a knee injury, and now his replacement, Jordan Reed, is on IR.
While Kittle could start practicing again on Wednesday, for now, Ross Dwelley looks to be his replacement.
With the uncertainty of the Kittle situation, Dwelley is worth picking up for now. He's a start if Kittle is out in Week 4, and if Kittle isn't up to task this week, he may be worth stashing for more work in Week 5.
With George Kittle out and Jordan Reed leaving due to injury, TE Ross Dwelley stepped up big time showcasing that n… https://t.co/WaofihA1NX— OurSF49ers (@OurSF49ers) 1601258743.0
With George Kittle out and Jordan Reed leaving due to injury, TE Ross Dwelley stepped up big time showcasing that n… https://t.co/WaofihA1NX— OurSF49ers (@OurSF49ers) 1601258743.0
The Best NFL Prop Bet Research Tool Is Finally Here
Until now, there was a void in the industry. An all-in-one prop bet research tool for Over/Under rankings did not exist. Fantasy SP has changed that.
Of course, you could find betting trends on the internet but there wasn’t a place where you could have all the information for every single player on the same page at your fingertips. Well, we wanted to change that. We’ve created the definitive NFL prop bet research tool for pros and newbies alike.
In a typical NFL week, there can be over 1,000 player prop lines available. Traditional player game logs are not optimal for researching player props. Our unique tool allows you to quickly analyze thousands of lines on your phone, tablet, or computer, and find the props with the greatest value. Don’t just bet on the players you like. Become more data-driven with your props research by using Fantasy SP’s Player Prop Over/Under Rankings!
This is the perfect prop bet research tool to make some serious cash. Place informed bets using relevant analytics and increase your chances of seeing your bankroll increase.
All | Pass Yds | Pass TDs| Pass Comp | Pass Att | Rush Att | Rush Yds | Rec | Rec Yds
With our brand-new Player Prop Over/Under Rankings Research Tool, users will be able to filter by tons of critical data points including home vs. away, favorite vs. underdog, player popularity, last few games, indoor vs. outdoor, specific props, specific teams, position rank, opponent rank, and so much more!
Research Prop Bet Betting Example
Okay, enough talk, and let’s get to a simple real-world example of how to use the tool to help you place a bet.
For example, Jared Goff has had some of the most ridiculous home/away splits in 2022.
Goff has a passer rating of 106.9 with 2,217 yards (277.1 yards per game), 20 touchdowns, and 3 interceptions in eight games at home this season. Pretty good, right? On the road, he has a passer rating of 82.5 with 1,387 yards (231.2 yards per game), 3 touchdowns, and 4 interceptions in six games.
As you can see, Goff is averaging 46 more yards per game at home in 2022 entering Week 16. Vegas may try to trick you when Goff is on the road after coming off a massive home game but by using our tool, you won’t be fooled.
Goff has a 5-3 O-U record on his passing yard props at Ford Field this season. While his average line at home on DraftKings is 247 yards, his average result is 277.1 passing yards. Prior to throwing for 250+ yards against the Jets at the Meadowlands in Week 15, he was 2-3 on his passing yards props on the road. His average line on DraftKings on the road was only 10 yards fewer heading into Week 15 yet he averaged a full 50 fewer yards per game (227). This shows a clear pattern that he is much more successful at hitting the over and much more efficient when playing in front of his home crowd. There are countless examples of patterns you can spot using this brand-new prop tool that are even more eye-popping than Goff’s numbers.
How to Find Favorable Prop Bets
The key to placing informed bets is to place bets on clear patterns. Ideally, you want to see a player consistently going over or under. Grab a concise list of potential bets to place and compare to the lines at your favorite operator.
Let’s say you want to place a passing yards prop bet on Tom Brady. You check all the lines at your favorite operator (we suggest
Caesars or FanDuel) and need to put his line into context. How often does he go over? What outcomes occur against an easy matchup? What is his average result? How does he do at home versus on the road?
Using our exclusive Over-Under Rankings, you can utilize our premium filters to find out Brady’s historical prop record at home versus the road is even more volatile than Goff’s splits. (This is good and what we want to see.)
At home, Brady is averaging a whopping 307.3 passing yards and has hit the over in six of seven games heading into Week 15.
On the road, while his average line is only two yards fewer (271.2 to 269.2), he has a 1-5 O-U record and is only averaging 239 passing yards per game.
Fantasy SP has just highlighted a very promising prop bet whenever Brady is at home. Take the over. And when he is on the road, it’s a prime spot to smash the under.
Some players also tend to do much better when their team is the favorite such as running backs late in the fourth quarter when their team needs to kill time. Heading into Week 15, Dalvin Cook had a 7-2 O-U rushing yard record when his team was the favorite (79.9 yards per game). Conversely, when the Vikings were underdogs, he was 1-3 (57.8 yards per game). This is why filtering by favorite or underdog can be a critical data point to help you gain an edge at sportsbooks.
You can also filter by the last few games in case a player has begun to heat up or cool off. These filters will help you nail your bets in very specific scenarios. It’s the perfect tool for situational prop betting.
What the Experts Are Saying
Don’t simply trust our word. We provided a free preview to professional bettors and journalists and this is what they had to say:
“I don’t place my player prop parlays until checking out Fantasy SP’s Prop Bet Rankings. This is the only place where I can get an in-depth historical analysis of every player in the League before placing my wagers!”
Matthew Rumack, Professional Sports Bettor
“This tool provides insight that I haven’t seen anywhere else in the sports betting industry. Fantasy SP has developed something truly unique. The premium filters that allow me to figure out how each player has performed in very specific situations are simply next-level. I will not be placing prop bets before using this tool for research!”
Mark Morales-Smith, Senior Fantasy & Gambling Writer
“The features of this prop research tool are simply awesome. It’s easy to use, easy to understand, and incredibly powerful. There is so much data at your fingertips. This is an essential piece to finding player prop betting value.”
Dan Hickman, Professional Gambling Writer
The dropdowns and filters on this tool are what really make this a game-changing feature. If you only want to see the most popular players on the page, simply slide the popularity to 75% or 100%. If you want to see players’ over-under records and their average results for only home games, simply click Home on the dropdown. If you want to see over-under records for players against teams in the bottom 5 at defending that position, simply click Bottom 5 under Position Rank. Not only can you get all of this insight, but the sliders and dropdowns all work interactively with a user-friendly interface so you can find out how a player is doing in a very specific situation. For example, let’s say Dak Prescott and the Cowboys are hosting the top-five San Francisco 49ers defense and are four-point underdogs. To get a much clearer picture of how Prescott has performed in similar situations, you can check off Home, Underdog, Indoor, and Top 5 under Opponent Rank to get his exact over-under prop historical record in this particular situation. If he is 0-3 on his passing yard prop in this scenario, you may want to smash the under.
NFL prop betting can be overwhelming but this tool makes it easy to research the best bets for novices and seasoned vets alike. Bettors should not be placing their prop bets before doing the necessary research. Now you can do all that research on one page with Fantasy SP’s Player Prop Over/Under Rankings Research Tool! It doesn’t get much better than that.
Stay tuned for our future article on even more in-depth tips and tricks.
France vs Argentina World Cup Final Betting Preview: Can Lionel Messi Capture That Elusive World Cup Title?
Picking up where they left off in 2018, the French National Team led by 23-year-old Kylian Mbappe have found their way back into the finals as they look to be the first back-to-back World Cup Champions since Brazil’s dominant runs in 1958 and 1962. Standing between that incredible feat for the defending champions is Argentina, who currently have their superstar, Lionel Messi, in top form. Messi is finding ways to create passes no one can see and he’s done it multiple times, assisting three goals (tied for the most) throughout the tournament. The legend is also scoring goals of his own and is tied with Kylian Mbappe (5 goals) for Golden Boot honors in this year’s World Cup. Regardless, soccer fans around the world are in for a treat on Sunday at 10:00 AM EST as two of the best players in the world face each other for their country’s World Cup glory.
After winning Group D, France defeated Poland in the Round of 16, England in the quarterfinals, and a strong Morocco team in the semis to advance to the Final. On the other side of the bracket, Argentina won Group C and dispatched Australia in the Round of 16. Messi and the Argentinians were then tested in the quarterfinals, needing a penalty shootout to defeat the Netherlands after blowing a late two-goal lead. Finally, Argentina played perhaps their best match of the tournament against Croatia in the semi-finals, winning 3-0. Now the stage is set for a blockbuster finale between two powerhouses featuring some of the top players in the world.
Note (from FanDuel Sportsbook): No team will play at home during Qatar's World Cup. For betting purposes, FanDuel explains that: “Home Team refers to the team listed first, Away Team refers to the second team listed.”
Argentina (-104) vs. France (-112)
Argentina Keys To Victory
Lionel Messi has played incredibly for Argentina throughout this World Cup. He is leaving opposing defenders in the dust, taking on multiple players at once, dragging them away from his teammates, which is opening up the field for his fellow goal scorers. Every time Messi has the ball at his feet, there seems to be more than one threat. Messi is playing just as well as he always has in 2022. He’s served his team as a playmaker and as a goal-scorer in Qatar. He’s also had some help from Manchester City forward Julian Alvarez who’s scored a handful of goals in this World Cup (including two in Argentina’s decisive victory over Croatia). If Alvarez and Messi are able to link up while on the attack, the depleted French defense and midfield could be in for some trouble.
France Keys To Victory
One of the biggest headlines heading into this World Cup Final is the return of French striker Karim Benzema. The Real Madrid star and winner of this year’s Ballon D’Or hurt his hamstring in one of France’s first practices soon after arriving in Qatar. He flew back to Madrid where he immediately completed his recovery work which was set at three weeks from the time of injury. Right now, Benzema is flying back to Doha and could be starting for France in the final. At the moment, France’s HC Didier Deschamps has declined to comment on whether or not he will be including KB9 in the starting lineup. France’s ball movement has been excellent throughout the tournament, but their key to victory against Argentina will be efficient defense. Over the last few games, France’s defense seems to have slowed down. Not only will they need to stop Messi, but they will need to turn defensive stops into counterattacks. Mbappe and Olivier Giroud (four goals thus far in the tournament) will need to be electric on offense and test the Argentinian keeper. Antoine Griezmann may be an x-factor for France as he has three assists in this World Cup and was inches away from scoring against Morocco.
It’s only fitting that Lionel Messi will finally hoist the World Cup trophy in his last World Cup match. Expect him to score a goal and lead his team to victory in a tightly contested battle.
The Pick: Argentina (-104)
World Cup Final Best Prop Bets
Kylian Mbappe: To Score Or Give Assist (+100)
Mbappé has been relatively quiet over France’s last few games. Still, he is the main wing on France’s team who is capable of breaking down defenses through his skillful technique and ridiculous speed. He currently is tied with Messi for the most goals in the 2022 World Cup. If he isn’t able to score in this game, then expect him to at least make an assist. For France to win this one, the 23-year-old will need to have a big game.
Lionel Messi: Anytime Goalscorer (+190)
Messi has stepped up his performance big time this World Cup. If you have watched Argentina play in this tournament, you know how crucial of a role Messi has played in the team’s success. He is tied for the most goals in the tournament with Mbappe and has a great chance of putting the ball in the net at some point during Sunday’s big match. This is a particularly great prop to target since Messi takes all of Argentina’s penalty shots and has converted four-of-five throughout the tournament.
Fantasy SP has worked diligently to bring you next-level sports betting analytics, prop betting tools, public betting splits, and so much more! Become an Edge+ member today!
Here’s Why December Is The Best Month To Join FanDuel
Calling every sports fan across the globe! The best month for all things sports is here: December. NFL and CFB are getting into the thick of things — I mean, we are finally not seeing Alabama and Clemson in the CFP, not to mention both the NBA and NHL are underway and college basketball just tipped off!
Despite all of these different sporting events going on, the World’s biggest Sporting event is down to the Semifinals, the World Cup.
Although Soccer is the World's most popular sport, it still struggles to gain support in the US. However, every 4 years Soccer takes the country by storm and this year, and these last few games are going to be amazing.
Let us introduce you to your new go-to app, FanDuel Sportsbook. It’s the place to be for not only the usual sports, but for this year's World Cup!
FanDuel Sportsbook is providing a multitude of features with a few market differentiators.
- World Cup Winner
- Who will win the Golden Boot (the award for the top goal scorer of the World Cup)
- Highest scoring Group
- And more
- Popular Markets - outside of the normal Moneyline, Spread & Over/Under lines, FanDuel will also be offering:
- Anytime Goal Scorer
- First Goal Scorer
- Shots on Goal
- Correct Score
- Number of Corner Kicks
- Half-Time Result
- Tournament Goal Scorer Parlay Builder - build your own tournament-long Goal Scorer parlays with your favorite players from every team.
- Daily Specials:
- Highest scoring team of the day
- Total daily goals
- Player specials
- And More!
- Live Parlays
Out of all the betting apps we’ve used, signing up for FanDuel Sportsbook is also the easiest. Simply download the app and create an account by providing an email, credit card, and SS# — that’s to protect your winnings and ensure you're not a sporting professional.
FanDuel is undoubtedly the best site/app to parlay across multiple sports. It’s designed for bettors at any stage. The clear interface is ideal for beginners and you can make a bet in just a few clicks! It’s complete with a number of betting guides that explain the rules and resources to safely bet.
One of the best parts is that once the game ends, you can cash out your winnings right away. No minimum, no wait.
There’s also the incredible New User Offer: sign up with FanDuel Sportsbook and get up to $1000 in Free Bets if you lose your first bet!
Their app has everything you need — from tutorials to real-time game scores. Get amped for the World Cup with FanDuel Sportsbook. Enhance your Sportsember by downloading the FanDuel Sportsbook app today!