Lamar Jackson
Welcome to our Week 14 edition of NFL Best Bets!
On the season, we are now 22-13 with our recommendations. Not to mention, a bunch of our bonus picks hit so if you made parlays with the right selections, you could be up tons of cash. If you have been following our picks, you are likely making some serious money this NFL season.
After a crazy month of upsets and surprising finishes, Week 13 was a strangely normal affair across the NFL. Almost all of the massively favored teams not only won but covered the spread, including the Buccaneers over the Falcons (favored by 11 points), the Rams over the Jaguars (favored by 14 points), and the Chiefs over the Raiders (favored by 9.5 points). The biggest upset of the week was the Detroit Lions defeating the Minnesota Vikings on a last-second 11-yard strike from Jared Goff to rookie wide receiver Amon-Ra St. Brown. However, we recommend the Lions against the spread, so it actually wasn’t that much of a surprise.
There are just five weeks left in the regular season as we inch closer to Christmas. Let’s celebrate early by hitting our wagers in Week 14. December is usually the month when teams start to separate from the rest of the pack, however, the playoff picture is very unclear outside of a few of the top teams in each conference. A whopping 12 teams in the AFC have a .500 or better record. Four of those squads will go head-to-head in pivotal division matchups. Week 14 will be capped off on Monday night with the first-place Arizona Cardinals taking on the second-place Los Angeles Rams in a battle between two NFC West division foes.
Week 14 kicked off with a matchup between the Pittsburgh Steelers and Minnesota Vikings. Unsurprisingly, the Vikings were involved in another one-possession game. After getting crushed the first three quarters of the game, Ben Roethlisberger came just a few yards short of leading the Steelers to an improbable comeback. However, Minnesota made a last-second stand, forcing an incomplete pass as time expired, the opposite of what they did in Week 13 against the Lions. Minnesota covered the spread and won the game, 36-28. The Steelers are now 6-6-1 while the Vikings are 6-7.
As the postseason picture begins to become more clear, it’s time to gear up for this week’s edition of NFL best bets. It takes a lot of energy and research to have success over the course of a season when it comes to sports betting. Here at Fantasy SP, we are committed to helping you cash. Remember, if you win 55% of your bets, you are a really good gambler. We are looking at some eye-opening odds this week and will help you decipher the best games to place your money on, whether it’s moneylines, over-unders, or prop bets. With that, let’s dive in.
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WEEK 14 NFL BEST BETS
Baltimore Ravens at Cleveland Browns (-3)
Although the public is backing the Browns with 72% of the spread bets on Cleveland to cover, this is a great opportunity to make a contrarian bet. The Baltimore Ravens are coming off an emotional loss to the Steelers last week, in which they failed to convert a two-point conversion, and lost by a single point. In retrospect, they probably should have kicked the field goal and forced overtime, but it’s hard to fault head coach John Harbaugh for the gutsy call. Lamar Jackson has connected with Mark Andrews eight of nine times for touchdowns within the five-yard line. The Ravens very well could have won that game and everyone would be praising Harbaugh for his surprising play call.
The 8-4 Ravens no longer sit atop the AFC standings and face a 6-6 Cleveland Browns squad battling for postseason life. Although the Browns are favored in this game, this would be a toss-up if they were playing on a neutral field. When looking at both rosters, Baltimore is clearly the superior team. They have a better point margin, a better quarterback by a mile, and perhaps the best defensive line in the NFL when it comes to stopping the run. Cleveland won’t be able to rely on Nick Chubb and Kareem Hunt in this contest. Baltimore has stuffed a league-high 29% of rushers at or behind the line of scrimmage this season. The Ravens are going to force Baker Mayfield to beat them through the air.
When these two teams met in Week 12, Chubb and Hunt combined for just 36 rushing yards on 15 carries. And despite picking off Jackson a staggering four times, the Ravens still defeated the Browns, 16-10. I think we are looking at another low-scoring affair in which the Ravens shut down Cleveland’s running game, and Jackson does just enough on offense to escape FirstEnergy stadium with a road victory. You can take the Ravens against the spread, but I think they will win outright.
- Pick: Ravens (+130)
- Prediction: 19-17 Ravens
Dallas Cowboys at Washington Football Team (+4.5)
Washington is on a four-game winning streak and controls their own destiny with all five of their remaining games in the division, including two against the first-place Cowboys. Meanwhile, the Cowboys have been all over the place this past month.
Washington narrowly escaped the last two weeks with 17-15 victories over the Seattle Seahawks and Las Vegas Raiders. They didn’t look like the better team in either contest though. Quarterback Taylor Heinicke is playing very good, mistake-free football, but both the offensive and defensive line are riddled with injuries. Star pass rushers Chase Young and Montez Sweat are out for the season. Plus, J.D. McKissic could be sidelined for another game and tight end Logan Thomas was placed on Injured Reserve after suffering a nasty knee injury last week.
Dallas had indeed struggled in recent weeks, but it’s important to look at the context. Dak Prescott missed Week 8, top-tier left tackle Tyron Smith missed the next three weeks, and wide receivers Amari Cooper and CeeDee Lamb missed most of Week 11 and Week 12. With all their playmakers back in the lineup last week against the New Orleans Saints, Dallas put together a convincing 27-17 victory.
Not only did the offense come together last week, but the defense also played one if its best contests, forcing Taysom Hill to throw an eye-popping four interceptions. Prescott is 19-8 against the spread in career division games and has covered 70% of the time. Dallas is also 2-0 in division games this season. I would have been more comfortable with the 3.5-point spread from earlier in the week, but I would still lay the points and take Dallas.
- Pick: Cowboys (-4.5)
- Prediction: 24-17 Cowboys
Los Angeles Rams at Arizona Cardinals (-2.5)
The Rams snapped their three-game losing streak by absolutely crushing the Jacksonville Jaguars last week. However, they have to head to Arizona to take on the first-place Cardinals in Week 14. In the last meeting between these two teams, Arizona took care of business on the road, defeating the Rams by a score of 37-20. Don’t expect another lopsided affair, but the Cardinals should win this game with Kyler Murray and DeAndre Hopkins back in the lineup, not to mention the likely return of pass-catching running back Chase Edmonds.
Only one team has been better against the spread than the Cardinals this season. Arizona is 9-3 against the spread while the Packers are 10-2. The Cardinals are a whopping 9-1 against the spread in victories this season. The only time they didn’t cover in a game they won was back in Week 2 against the Vikings. Considering how good Murray looked under center last week, bettors should back the Cardinals at home in Week 14. Kyler threw two touchdowns and ran for an additional two scores in Arizona’s thrashing of the Chicago Bears last week.
Although the Rams looked much better on offense last week, they are still getting used to playing without Robert Woods and with Odell Beckham Jr. Matthew Stafford got back on track but hasn’t looked like the same quarterback in the second half of the season as he did earlier on in the year.
Plus, Arizona will clinch a playoff berth if they win, and will essentially wrap up the division. They would have a three-game lead over the Rams with a Week 15 date with the 1-10-1 Detroit Lions on the horizon. The Cardinals have a more complete roster in all three phases of the game and have played much more consistently, even when Colt McCoy was filling in for the injured Kyler Murray. Although three points is a decent margin in a divisional matchup, I like the Cardinals at home. I’m also taking the over in a contest between two high-powered offenses. Although only 40% of the bets are on the over, 60% of the money expects this game to exceed the 51.5-point total. Follow the “smart money” in this situation.
- Pick: Cardinals (-3)
- Bonus: Over 51.5 points
- Prediction: 30-24 Cardinals
New Orleans Saints at New York Jets (+5.5)
The Jets have lost three straight games against the spread at home while New Orleans is 3-2 against the spread in its last five road games. The Jets are just 2-6 against the spread when Zach Wilson starts at quarterback this season. This is a battle between two struggling franchises, as the Saints have lost five straight contests and have failed to cover in their last three losses. However, the easy opponent should help the Saints get back on track in Week 14.
With Taysom Hill under center, the Jets are going to struggle on defense. They have allowed the third-most rushing yards and the most rushing touchdowns this season. And in five career starts with Hill as the quarterback, the Saints are averaging 170 rushing yards per game. Plus, the Jets permitted just shy of 200 total rushing yards to an Eagles offense that was playing without Jalen Hurts last week.
With Alvin Kamara expected to make his long-awaited return this week, the Saints should breeze to an easy victory. Sean Payton is going to run the offense similar to the way Bill Belichick did last week against the Bills. Hill probably won’t even throw the ball 20 times, as New Orleans should be able to move the ball in large chunks between Hill and Kamara in the backfield. Plus, the New York Jets lost wide receiver Corey Davis for the season, and rookie running back Michael Carter is still sidelined. That leaves the ineffective Tevin Coleman as New York’s starting running back. The Saints are one of the better defenses at stopping the run, which means the Jets will have to rely on their rookie quarterback to move the chains. Although fellow rookie, Elijah Moore, has emerged as one of the top receivers from this year’s draft class, shut-down cornerback Marshon Lattimore will likely shadow Moore wherever he goes on Sunday.
This could be a very long day for Gang Green. Lay the points and take the Saints on the road in Week 14. Both teams have really struggled to put up points recently, so I would also gravitate towards the under in this contest. The public seems to agree, as 66% of best on the over-under are siding with the under.
- Pick: Saints (-5.5)
- Bonus: Under 43 points
- Prediction: 24-16 Saints
New York Giants at Los Angeles Chargers (-10)
Despite the spread ballooning once it became clear that Mike Glennon would be starting for the injured Daniel Jones, we bet against the Giants last week and it paid off. This week, the G-Men have an even more formidable opponent in the Chargers, but with Jake Fromm set to make his first NFL start, it’s hard to envision the Giants doing much of anything on offense. With Glennon under center last week against the Dolphins, the Giants failed to score a touchdown. New York is incredibly banged up on both sides of the football and Saquon Barkley has yet to look like himself this season.
Meanwhile, the Chargers are coming off their most complete victory of the season after defeating the Cincinnati Bengals 41-22 last week. Although Austin Ekeler, Keenan Allen, Mike Williams, and Joey Bosa all appeared on the injury report, it appears that all four pivotal playmakers will suit up in Week 14. I don’t love the massive line in this game, but Justin Herbert should be able to cover the double-digit spread at home against an inferior opponent.
- Pick: Chargers (-10)
- Prediction: 30-16 Chargers
Top Week 14 Player Props
- Antonio Gibson over 66.5 rushing yards (-110)
- Taysom Hill over 51.5 rushing yards (-110)
- Josh Allen under 300.5 passing yards (-115)
- Trevor Lawrence under 216.5 passing yards (-110)
- Jared Goff over 20.5 completions (-110)
- Matt Ryan over 230.5 passing yards (+110)
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Joe Mixon of Cincinnati Bengals
Welcome to our Week 13 edition of NFL Best Bets!
On the season, we are now 19-11 with our NFL Best Bets and are up +6 units. Not to mention, a bunch of our bonus picks hit so if you made parlays with the right selections, you could be up even more units. If you have been following our picks, you are likely making some serious cash this NFL season.
It’s finally December, the month of celebration, so let’s celebrate with some cash-money picks! December is usually the month when teams start to separate from the rest of the pack, however, the playoff spots in each conference are wide open this season. Week 13 presents some unique opportunities for certain franchises. The Patriots and Bills play on Monday Night Football in a battle for the top spot in the AFC East. Meanwhile, the Cincinnati Bengals can leapfrog to the top of the AFC North with a victory over the Los Angeles Chargers and a Baltimore Ravens loss to the Steelers. However, if Baltimore wins, they will strengthen their hold on the top seed in the AFC.
Week 13 kicked off with a matchup between two teams that were both trending in the wrong direction. The Dallas Cowboys (who had lost three of four games since Dak Prescott returned) traveled to Caesars Superdowm to take on the reeling New Orleans Saints (losers of four straight with Trevor Siemian under center with Jameis Winston out for the season). The spread opened at five points before it dropped to around four points when early money backed New Orleans in this pivotal matchup with tons of playoff implications. However, the spread jumped back up to 6.5 points when Alvin Kamara was announced as a late scratch. Taysom Hill was finally available to make his first start of the season, but New Orleans struggled all night on offense. They could not get Mark Ingram going in the running game, although Hill rushed for over 100 yards himself. Marshon Lattimore picked off Dak Prescott on the other side of the ball and New Orleans only trailed by three points until Tony Pollard ripped off a beautiful 58-yard touchdown run late in the third quarter to make the score 20-10. Then, defensive lineman, Carlos Watkins returned an interception off a deflected pass to the house to put the game out of reach. The Saints responded with a long touchdown to Deonte Harris, but it was too little, too late. Hill threw four interceptions (three in the final seven minutes of the game), which helped Dallas clinch the game and cover the spread. Dallas won 27-17 to take an even more dominating lead in the NFC East.
As the postseason picture begins to become more clear, it’s time to gear up for this week’s edition of NFL best bets. It takes a lot of energy and research to have success throughout a season when it comes to sports betting. Here at FantasySP, we are committed to helping you cash. Remember, if you win 55% of your bets, you are a really good gambler. We are looking at some eye-opening odds this week and will help you decipher the best games to place your money on, whether it’s moneylines, over-unders, or prop bets. With that, let’s dive in.
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WEEK 13 NFL BEST BETS
Arizona Cardinals at Chicago Bears (+7.5)
Coming off their bye week, the Cardinals will get top-tier signal-caller Kyler Murray back and although superstar wideout DeAndre Hopkins is questionable, I think he returns to action as well. Even if Hopkins is inactive, I still think Arizona has enough talent to defeat the Bears by double-digits. The Cardinals average 28.2 points per game while allowing the fourth-fewest points per game (18.4) and the sixth-fewest yards per play (5.3). Meanwhile, Chicago has per-game averages of just 16.3 points scored and 23.1 points allowed. Chicago will be without the services of Akiem Hicks, Danny Trevathan, and All-Pro pass rusher Khalil Mack. Something tells me that the Cardinals’ offense is going to have a field day on Sunday.
This season, the Cardinals have played six games on the road. They are 6-0 outright and 6-0 against the spread, defeating the spread by a whopping 18.6 points per contest. That’s simply insane! It’s still unclear whether Andy Dalton or Justin Fields will start under center for the Bears, but Chicago’s offense ranks a dreadful 29th in scoring and yards per play. Even with J.J. Watt out, the Cardinals’ defense has stopped opposing passing attacks all season. It’s hard to envision the Bears moving the ball effectively, especially with Allen Robinson most likely out. David Montgomery will need to be very elusive and effective in the running game for Chicago to have any shot at keeping this game close.
At the end of the day, I expect the Cardinals to have no trouble defeating a Bears team that needed a last-second field goal on Thanksgiving to defeat the winless Detroit Lions.
- Pick: Cardinals (-7.5)
- Bonus: Over 44
- Prediction: 30-17 Cardinals
Los Angeles Chargers at Cincinnati Bengals (-3)
Both of these teams are fighting for postseason life and this is looking like a high-scoring affair between two high-powered offenses. Although this game is being marketed as the Joe Burrow vs. Justin Herbert matchup, I think this game will be dominated by Joe Mixon. The Chargers allow the most rushing yards per game to opposing running backs this season and have allowed 140+ rushing yards in seven games this season. Mixon has been an absolute stud as of late with nine touchdowns in his last five games. He has eclipsed 100 yards in two straight games and is coming off a season-high 165-yard performance against the Pittsburgh Steelers. Mixon will see plenty of touches as Cincinnati will do whatever it takes to keep the ball out of Justin Herbert’s hands. And although the Bengals’ offense will likely run through Mixon, it’s not like this team lacks a prolific aerial attack. Burrow has progressed into one of the best quarterbacks in the NFL and has a top-five receiving core consisting of Ja’Marr Chase, Tee Higgins, Tyler Boyd, and tight end C.J. Uzomah.
The Chargers have a solid offense in their own right. Austin Ekeler is one of the best dual-threat backs in the NFL and the tandem of Keenan Allen and Mike Williams tends to make things difficult for opposing secondaries.
The Chargers beat the Bengals 16-13 in Week 1 of last season, but this is a very different Cincinnati team in 2021. Not to mention, the “smart money” is clearly backing the Bengals in Week 13. Although just 61% of spread bets are on the Bengals, 91% of the money is on Cincy. And despite just 19% of moneyline bets being on the Bengals, a ridiculous 98% of the money is backing Cincinnati outright. When studying the public betting trends, it appears that amateurs are betting on the Chargers to upset the Bengals while professional gamblers are backing Cincinnati. I’m going with the Vegas insiders on this one.
- Pick: Bengals (-3)
- Prediction: 31-27 Bengals
New York Giants at Miami Dolphins (-6)
Once quarterback Daniel Jones was ruled out of this game with a neck injury, the spread jumped from three points to 4.5 points and is now at six points. I already placed the bet on Miami when they were laying three points, but I would still take Miami despite the increased spread, especially with Sterling Shepard and Kadarius Toney looking doubtful. It’s hard to envision Mike Glennon leading this offense with just Kenny Golladay and Darius Slayton as his main targets, even with Saquon Barkley in the backfield. Although the Giants had a nice victory over the Philadelphia Eagles last week, they only managed 13 points on offense.
The Dolphins are riding a four-game win streak to get into Wild Card consideration with a 5-7 record. While it’s unlikely that they will actually make the postseason, this team is playing very well as of late. Miami has forced 10 turnovers during their win streak and should have no problem picking off Glennon at least twice, with Xavien Howard leading the way. Over their last three games, the Dolphins are only allowing 12.3 points per game and the offense has improved incrementally. Although Brian Flores’ crew was underwhelming against the Jets in Week 11, they bounced back in a big way last week against Cam Newton and the Carolina Panthers. Miami sacked Newton and P.J. Walker five times, forced three interceptions, and returned a pick for a touchdown.
The Dolphins seem to have finally figured out how to tailor their offense around Tua Tagovailoa. Tua has 503 passing yards, three touchdowns, and just one interception in his last two starts. Jaylen Waddle has developed into a true WR1, Mike Gesicki has been one of the top tight ends in the NFL this season, and even running back Myles Gaskin has started to perform as a true workhorse back with three touchdowns in his last two outings.
The Giants’ defense is a bit better than people give them credit for, but I just can’t imagine Mike Glennon keeping this a one-possession game. While I don’t anticipate the Dolphins scoring many points, the Giants will struggle to even produce double digits against a Dolphins defense that is red-hot. Keep riding the wave and back the Dolphins. Sometimes it’s smart to make a contrarian bet against the public. In this case, fading the public would be a massive mistake.
- Pick: Dolphins (-6)
- Prediction: 20-10 Dolphins
Minnesota Vikings at Detroit Lions (+7.5)
In a battle between two of the worst run defenses in the NFL, both teams will be starting their backup running backs due to injuries to D’Andre Swift and Dalvin Cook in Week 12. The Vikings have played more one-possession games (10) than any team in the NFL. Whenever Minnesota is favored by more than a touchdown, my general rule of thumb is to take the opposing team. Detroit lost a 19-17 heartbreaker to the Vikings the last time these two teams met, and although I’m not suggesting that the Lions will defeat Minnesota at Ford Field, I do think Detroit has enough in the tank to cover the spread.
The Lions are 6-4 as underdogs against the spread in their last 10 games while the Vikings are 2-8 against the spread as favorites over that same span. With Swift out of the lineup, I’m anticipating Jamaal Williams to dominate Minnesota’s defensive line. Jared Goff is also coming off one of his best performances of the season and has re-established the chemistry that he had previously built with Josh Reynolds back when they were both members of the Rams. Goff will also get T.J. Hockenson more involved in the passing game, and I’m boldly predicting that rookie Amon-Ra St. Brown scores his first touchdown of the season.
All that said, I still think the Lions will exit Week 13 winless, but due to their ability to play teams close until late in the fourth quarter, I expect Detroit to cover. Take the points. If you want to do a same-game parlay, consider taking the under as well, as both teams’ most electric playmakers will be sidelined (Swift and Cook).
- Pick: Lions (+7.5)
- Bonus: Under 46.5
- Prediction: 20-16 Vikings
Washington Football Team at Las Vegas Raiders (-1.5)
The Raiders are coming off a pivotal 36-33 overtime victory over the Dallas Cowboys on Thanksgiving. If they can beat Dallas, they should be able to dismantle Washington in a home game that would keep their postseason hopes alive. The Raiders snapped a three-game losing streak and Derek Carr balled out despite losing Darren Waller in the first half. Fortunately, DeSean Jackson proved that he is capable of filling in the role that Henry Ruggs left vacant. D-Jax hauled in 102 yards and a long touchdown, proving he still has plenty left in the tank and that he can stretch the field with his speed. Carr will need Jackson to build off that performance with Waller ruled out in Week 13. The veteran speedster who spent time with both the Eagles and Washington has crushed Washington in past performances. Jackson has tallied 44 receptions for 817 yards and seven touchdowns in his last 12 matchups against Washington. I’m anticipating another long touchdown pass to D-Jax to get this game rolling.
The Raiders average the second-most passing yards per game (295.6) and face a Washington defense without Chase Young that allows the third-most passing yards per game (266.6). Although Washington’s defense has played better over their recent three-game winning streak, Carr is going to light it up on Sunday. Hunter Renfrow had his best performance of the season in Week 12 when he produced eight receptions for 134 yards. In his last five games, Renfrow has caught 33 balls for 227 yards and two touchdowns. Renfrow has come into his own down the stretch, especially with Bryan Edwards still struggling to provide consistent numbers.
Although I think Washington will shut down Josh Jacobs and Vegas’ rushing attack, Derek Carr and the Raiders’ passing game will be too much for Washington, especially with All-Pro safety Landon Collins inactive. D-Jax and Renfrow will both eclipse 100 yards in this contest. I’m expecting Washington to fall behind quickly, and the absence of pass-catching running back J.D. McKissic could prove costly. Taylor Heinicke will get an opportunity in the final minutes to lead Washington to victory but will fall short.
- Pick: Raiders (-1.5)
- Prediction: 30-24 Raiders
Week 13 NFL Top Props
Jared Goff over 0.5 interceptions (-121)
Goff is coming off one of his best games of the season and hasn't thrown an interception in any of his previous three starts. However, Detroit's opponents had horrendous passing defenses whereas he faces a Vikings secondary that has forced at least one interception in six of their last seven games. Without D'Andre Swift in the lineup, Goff will likely have to air the ball out a bit more often than the Lions would like. That should result in at least one pick.
George Kittle over 56.5 receiving yards (-115)
With Deebo Samuel inactive, Jimmy G is going to have to rely on Kittle and Brandon Aiyuk to move the chains. As much as the 49ers commit to their running game, I wouldn't be surprised if Seattle stacks the box to force Garroppolo to throw the ball. Kittle should easily eclipse 57 yards, though I'm expecting closer to 90.
Derek Carr over 267.5 passing yards (-115)
As we touched on in the Raiders-Washington matchup blurb, Carr and the Raiders throw for the second-most yards in the league and face a generous Washington secondary missing Landon Collins that surrenders the third-most passing yards per game in the NFL. Considering this game is expected to be very close, the Raiders won't be able to hand the ball off late in the game to burn seconds off the clock. The Raiders will be throwing the ball late into the fourth quarter. I wouldn't be surprised if Carr threw for 300+ yards.
Other Week 13 NFL Props To Consider
- Mac Jones over 210.5 passing yards (-110)
- Mike Glennon under 210.5 passing yards (+105)
- Kenny Golladay over 37.5 receiving yards (-115)
- Darnell Mooney over 49.5 receiving yards (-115)
- Najee Harris over 55.5 rushing yards (-114)
- Clyde Edwards-Helaire under 60.5 rushing yards (-115)
- Ja'Marr Chase over 5.5 receptions (+130)
- Brandon Aiyuk over 4.5 receptions (-160)
FantasySP is developing betting tools to provide users with something nobody else in the industry can offer. Upgrade to an Edge+ account today and get 50% off your first year at just $99.99 for the year. After a year, the price is going to increase to $199. Lock in your special early-bird deal today!
GLENDALE, AZ - FEBRUARY 01: Russell Wilson #3 of the Seattle Seahawks looks to pass in the first quarter against the New England Patriots during Super Bowl XLIX at University of Phoenix Stadium on February 1, 2015 in Glendale, Arizona.
We crushed our picks last week and nailed all five of the best bets recommended. We are now up +7 units over the last two weeks. Hopefully, you are following our advice, as we are 17-8 over the last five weeks.
The upsets continued in Week 10 after an incredibly wild Week 9. I would say this has been the craziest two-week period in the NFL this season. The Miami Dolphins kicked Week 10 off with a 22-10 victory over the Baltimore Ravens. Then on Sunday, the Lions managed to tie the Steelers, Washington defeated Tom Brady and the reigning Super Bowl champs, Carolina crushed the Arizona Cardinals, the Vikings defeated the Chargers, and Philadelphia beat Denver on the road. It was only fitting for the week to end with another huge upset, as the 49ers dismantled Matthew Stafford and the Los Angeles Rams in primetime on Monday Night Football.
Week 11 kicked off last night and the New England Patriots shut out Matt Ryan and the Atlanta Falcons. In our Public Betting Trends article, we advised bettors to take the Patriots against the spread and to take the under. If you did, you made some nice cash, especially if you wagered a parlay.
As the postseason picture begins to become more clear, it's time to gear up for this week's edition of NFL best bets. It takes a lot of energy and research to have success over the course of a season when it comes to sports betting. Here at Fantasy SP, we are committed to helping you cash. Remember, if you win 55% of your bets, you are a really good gambler. We are looking at some eye-opening odds this week and will help you decipher the best games to place your money on, whether it's moneylines, over-unders, or prop bets. With that, let's dive in.
Learn more about our fantasy football tools and products!
WEEK 11 NFL BEST BETS
Arizona Cardinals at Seattle Seahawks (+2)
Before the season started, this would have been an outrageous spread. Arizona has been much better than expected and Seattle had been much worse. However, Russell Wilson made his return last week against the Green Bay Packers and Seattle failed to score a single point. Somehow, I don't think that will happen again. Wilson clearly returned before he was at full strength, but with another week of practice, expect the Seahawks to come out much stronger at home with the 12th man supporting them from the stands. The Seahawks have one of the best home-field advantages in the NFL and Seattle has posted a 32-14-3 record against the spread since Wilson entered the league in 2012. Wilson himself wins 78.3% of the time following a loss, as he is 36-10 straight up after a loss.
Superstar wide receiver DeAndre Hopkins has officially been ruled out for Week 11 and quarterback Kyler Murray is still questionable. If Murray is unable to go, there is absolutely no way that Colt McCoy defeats Wilson on the road. And if Murray returns, he could be a bit hobbled or rusty after a two-week absence, plus he'll be missing his go-to target. I think the upsets will continue and the Seahawks will win this game outright. The public seems to think so too, as 87% of the moneyline handle is on the Seahawks.
I would also place a bet on the over in this game. Although only 44% of the bets placed are on the over, 99% of the money is expecting a high-scoring affair. This is a prime spot to follow the "smart money."
The Pick: Seahawks (+2)
Prediction: 24-20 Seahawks
Bonus Bet: Over 48.5 points
New Orleans Saints at Philadelphia Eagles (-2)
Over their last 10 games, the Saints are 9-1 against the spread as underdogs. Conversely, the Eagles are 3-7 against the spread as favorites over their last 10 games. The Saints are not the same team that they were a few years ago when Drew Brees was under center. They also still don't have Michael Thomas, and Alvin Kamara is highly questionable for this week's contest. However, the Saints were just a two-point conversion short of forcing overtime last week against the AFC-leading Tennessee Titans despite the absence of Kamara. The quarterback tandem of Trevor Siemian and Taysom Hill has actually played quite well since Jameis Winston went down with his season-ending injury. New Orleans brought back Mark Ingram, who proved he can still be relied on as a workhorse. Ingram posted 108 total yards on 18 touches and scored a touchdown. Even if Kamara is out, Ingram isn't a horrible downgrade. The Saints have one of the best offensive lines in the league so I'm not at all worried about the running game. And New Orleans' defense is elite with a great defensive line and one of the best shutdown cornerbacks in Marshon Lattimore.
The Eagles are coming into this contest hot after winning two of their last three matchups. Philadelphia steamrolled the winless Lions in Week 8, lost to the Los Angeles Chargers in Week 9, and defeated an underwhelming Denver Broncos squad in Week 10. Philly hasn't beaten a single legitimate playoff team this season. That's why it's tough to back them against a well-rounded Saints team. Sure, Jalen Hurts and Devonta Smith appear to have finally developed some chemistry, but Lattimore could make things difficult for the rookie wide receiver out of Alabama.
Although I think this game is competitive just as Vegas expects it to be, I think the Saints will win this game outright. However, I'm more comfortable taking the two-point spread.
The Pick: Saints (+2)
Prediction: 21-20 Saints
Miami Dolphins at New York Jets (+3.5)
Miami's defense has been elite over the last two weeks. After sacking Tyrod Taylor five times and forcing four turnovers against the Houston Texans in Week 9, the Dolphins were even better in primetime Thursday night against Lamar Jackson and the Baltimore Ravens. Miami allowed just 10 points, produced four sacks, forced two turnovers, and Xavien Howard returned a Sammy Watkins fumble for a 49-yard touchdown. Now the Dolphins get a New York Jets team that has struggled to put up points all season long whether Zach Wilson, Mike White, or Josh Johnson is under center. This week, the Jets will get their fourth quarterback under center this season, as veteran Joe Flacco will play his first snap of the season. It's hard to envision Flacco doing much damage against this improving Dolphins defense. According to TruMedia, the Dolphins have gotten pressure on a league-high 35 % of opponent dropbacks this season. The Jets have allowed pressure on 38 % of dropbacks this season, which ranks the fourth-worst in the league.
Although Miami has had offensive problems of its own, Tua Tagovailoa will start instead of Jacoby Brissett. The Dolphins will be without the services of DeVante Parker and Will Fuller, but Tua still has some solid weapons in rookie Jaylen Waddle, tight end Mike Gesicki, and running back Myles Gaskin. Three of New York's last four losses have been by 15+ points. And the Jets have allowed a ridiculous 472.5 yards and 43.8 points per game over their last four games. The Jets are also just 2-8 against the spread as underdogs over their last 10 games. I think this spread is way too low and I'm confident that the Dolphins will win by more than a field goal in Week 11.
The Pick: Dolphins (-3.5)
Prediction: 24-13 Dolphins
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San Francisco 49ers at Jacksonville Jaguars (+6.5)
The 49ers looked like a playoff team when they dismantled the Los Angeles Rams on Monday Night Football last week. San Francisco got back to their bread and butter by running the ball a whopping 44 times for 156 yards. After only picking off two passes heading into Week 10, Jimmie Ward and the Niners forced two turnovers and Ward returned one for a touchdown. George Kittle has hauled in 11-of-19 targets for 151 yards and two receiving touchdowns in two games since returning from injury. Deebo Samuel caught all five of his targets for 97 yards and one touchdown and rushed five times for 36 yards and a second touchdown in last week's game. And lastly, Jimmy Garroppolo threw two touchdown passes, didn't turn the ball over, and only tossed four incompletions. This was the most complete game the 49ers played all season and they looked very similar to the team that made the Super Bowl back in 2019.
Although the Jacksonville Jaguars upset the Buffalo Bills two weeks ago and came close to defeating the Indianapolis Colts last week, Trevor Lawrence has failed to live up to expectations thus far. Lawrence has only tossed eight touchdown passes and has thrown nine interceptions this season. Tight end Dan Arnold has really come into his own but Marvin Jones has struggled immensely over the last few weeks. Running back James Robinson is a bit hobbled and has not been the same player he was last year.
I don't expect this to be a blowout, but I will take the 49ers and lay the points in this one. I also suggest taking the over in this one. Although only 43% of bets are on the over, 98% of the money expects this game to go over the 45.5-point total.
The Pick: 49ers (-6.5)
Prediction: 27-20 49ers
Bonus: Over 45.5 points
Washington Football Team at Carolina Panthers (-3)
After upsetting the reigning Super Bowl champs last week, Ron Rivera leads Washington to face his former quarterback, Cam Newton, and the Carolina Panthers. The Panthers had been in a major drought after their 3-0 start to the season. However, the arrival of Newton has injected new life into this franchise. The Panthers are still in the thick of the playoff race after Newton helped lead Carolina to a massive upset over the NFC-leading Cardinals last week. Newton scored touchdowns on each of his first two plays in Week 10. This week, he will start at a loud Bank of America Stadium for the first time since Sept. 12, 2019. Newton didn't have the weapons in New England that he does in Carolina. Christian McCaffrey is the best dual-threat running back in the league, D.J. Moore has flashed top-10 upside at the wide receiver position, and even Robby Anderson has proven that he has some serious skills (though he was much better in New York than he has been in Carolina). I don't think the Panthers are going to score 34 points again, but they won't have to and they could come close against a Washington defense that ranks dead-last in the NFL and just lost their best player in Chase Young for the season. Plus, Carolina's No. 2 ranked defense will be fired up against Taylor Heinicke.
The Pick: Panthers (-3)
Prediction: 26-19 Panthers
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We went 3-2 with our bets last week, but because we placed twice as many units on the Chargers-Eagles game, we came away with +2 units last Sunday.
Can't complain about making money. Hopefully, you are following our advice, as we are now 12-8 over the last four weeks.
Week 9 was a wild ride full of crazy upsets. The Bills lost to the Jaguars 9-6, the Dallas Cowboys were dominated by the Denver Broncos, Cleveland defeated their AFC North rivals in the Cincinnati Bengals, the New York Giants escaped with a victory over the Las Vegas Raiders, the Saints lost on a last-second field goal to the Atlanta Falcons, and the Rams were outplayed by the Tennessee Titans on Sunday Night Football despite the absence of Derrick Henry.
If you thought we would get a return to normalcy in Week 10, you were very much wrong as the Baltimore Ravens got spanked by the Miami Dolphins in primetime on Thursday Night Football. As the postseason picture begins to become more clear, it's time to gear up for this week's edition of NFL best bets. It takes a lot of energy and research to have success over the course of a season when it comes to sports betting. Here at FantasySP, we are committed to helping you cash. Remember, if you win 55% of your bets, you are a really good gambler. We are looking at some eye opening odds this week and will help you decipher the best games to place your money on, whether it's moneylines, over-unders, or prop bets. With that, let's dive in.
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WEEK 10 NFL BEST BETS
Kansas City Chiefs at Las Vegas Raiders (+2.5)
What in the world is going on in Kansas City? The Chiefs barely escaped against the Giants in Week 8, and almost lost to a Green Bay Packers team that was missing MVP candidate Aaron Rodgers in Week 9. Although Kansas City is coming off back-to-back victories, the team is not performing at a high level. The offense is what is most concerning as Patrick Mahomes has been somewhat careless with the football, and Tyreek Hill has had to really struggle for every single yard. Kansas City only posted 13 points against a Packers secondary missing their two best corners in Jaire Alexander and Eric Stokes. That said, I think this is a get-right game for Mahomes and the offense. The defense has actually played pretty well as of late, allowing just 16 points per game over their last four contests, in which the team has a 3-1 record.
As of the publication of this article, 64% of bets on the spread have been in favor of the Chiefs. But more importantly, 76% of the money is on the Chiefs. That means that professional gamblers are placing large sums on Mahomes to get it together in Vegas this Sunday. With an over/under of 52 points, we are likely looking at a high-scoring affair. Look for Mahomes to eclipse 300 yards and find both Hill and Travis Kelce for touchdowns.
The Pick: Chiefs (-2.5)
Prediction: 31-23 Chiefs
Bonus Bet: Over 52 points
Cleveland Browns at New England Patriots (-2.5)
Cleveland will be without the services of Nick Chubb, who is coming off a huge 137-yard performance with two trips to the end zone. Kareem Hunt is still on Injured Reserve and Odell Beckham Jr. has been waived and claimed by the Los Angeles Rams. While the Beckham news might actually be good for Baker Mayfield and the Browns, Cleveland is a run-first offense and will have to rely on D'Ernest Johnson. Even Demetric Felton and John Kelly have been ruled out with COVID-19, so Johnson's backup running back is still unclear up to this point. Johnson could be the only healthy running back ready to suit up.
Meanwhile, New England has dominated the Browns in Foxborough over the last 30 years. The last time that the Browns defeated the Patriots in Foxborough was back in 1992. Although only 47% of bets are on the Patriots against the spread, a whopping 67% of the money is backing New England even as 2.5-point favorites. The high-stakes professionals clearly believe in rookie Mac Jones and Bill Belichick. New England may have running back concerns of their own as Damien Harris and rookie Rhamondre Stevenson are still in the concussion protocol and are unlikely to suit up on Sunday. However, Brandon Bolden and J.J. Taylor have proven to be fairly efficient. New England's defense has been playing great defense and I think this is the game where Mac Jones proves he is here to stay in the NFL. This one will come down to the wire, but I'm expecting New England to barely cover.
Pick: Patriots (-2.5)
Prediction: 27-24 Patriots
Atlanta Falcons at Dallas Cowboys (-9)
The Cowboys were essentially blanked by the Denver Broncos last week before scoring two late garbage-time touchdowns to make the score somewhat respectable. After losing money on the Cowboys last week, I'm going back to the well. I think this is the perfect opportunity for Dak Prescott to air it out against an Atlanta Falcons secondary that has struggled all season long. CeeDee Lamb is going to have his best game of the season against the team that passed on him in the NFL Draft.
While the Falcons are coming off a huge victory over the Saints, I don't think Matt Ryan will be able to keep up with Dallas' potent offense. Without Calvin Ridley, his only real weapons are rookie tight end Kyle Pitts, and perhaps the best story of the year in Cordarrelle Patterson. Did you know that Patterson has more scrimmage yards than Dalvin Cook, more receptions than DeAndre Hopkins, more touchdowns than Travis Kelce, and more yards per catch than Tyreek Hill? Yeah, I didn't think so. Still, it will take the Falcons playing at their very best to keep up with Prescott, Zeke, Lamb, and Amari Cooper, plus an offensive line that is anchored by Tyron Smith. Dallas is 8-2 against the spread in their last 10 games dating back to last season. Look for them to increase that number to 9-2.
Pick: Cowboys (-9)
Prediction: 34-21 Cowboys
Bonus: Lamb OVER yards and receptions
Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Washington Football Team (+9.5)
The only team that came somewhat close to ending Tom Brady's quest for a Super Bowl in his debut season with the Bucs was Washington. Taylor Heinicke did a remarkable job in the Wild Card game last season, and he'll get another chance in Week 10. It looks like the Bucs could be without the services of Chris Godwin. If so, I think it's very hard to pass on taking Washington and the points. Even if Godwin plays, Heinicke has played well in Ryan Fitzpatrick's absence, and tight end Logan Thomas is expected to make his long-awaited return. Call it a gut feeling, but I think Chase Young forces a sack-fumble that Washington takes back to the house. Still, Tampa should win this game, but I am very comfortable betting on Washington against the spread. Consider a parlay with the over as well. After all, Washington has been allowing the most points per game to opposing teams and Tom Brady will look to get back on track after losing to the Saints in Week 8 before Tampa's bye week.
Pick: Football Team (+9.5)
Prediction: 31-27 Buccaneers
Bonus: Over 51 points
Minnesota Vikings at Los Angeles Chargers (-3.5)
Has any team played in as many one-possession contests as the Vikings? No. The question is whether the Vikings will be able to win this game outright on the road or at least cover the spread. Minnesota is 7-3 in their last 10 games as road underdogs. Considering Dalvin Cook will still be suiting up despite the domestic abuse rumors swirling around that locker room, I expect Minnesota to try to slow the game down and keep the ball out of Justin Herbert's hands as much as possible by giving Cook the rock. Minnesota has said they are going to throw the ball more, and they should with Justin Jefferson and Adam Thielen catching passes from Kirk Cousins, but it's hard not to give one of the best running backs in the league the ball 25 times per game. The Chargers' defense has been very generous to opposing running backs so Cook should steamroll Joey Bosa and the Los Angeles defensive line. While I think the Chargers still escape with a victory, Los Angeles will need a game-winning field goal to get the victory.
Pick: Vikings (+3.5)
Prediction: 27-24 Chargers
