Here's Who to Drop, Swap and Shop in Week 7
This week, the league's greatest quarterbacks had a chance to battle it out: Tom Brady took on Aaron Rodgers in a surprise blowout win, while MVP candidate Josh Allen lost to Super Bowl MVP Patrick Mahomes.
The lesson to be learned here is don't count those MVP votes before Week 6 (and never, never slander Tom Brady before a big game).
@AaronRodgers12 is a legend for this 😂 https://t.co/VpT7GbLUGb— Matt 🦁 (@Matt 🦁) 1603152049.0
Rodgers' celebration was approved by McCringleberry himself 😂 @AaronRodgers12 @KeeganMKey @packers https://t.co/oTNBVe1BnA— The Checkdown (@The Checkdown) 1603137661.0
While Rodgers has made it clear he'll get over the hump, you still have a fantasy team to worry about in the weeks ahead. Here's how to overcome the mid-season hump and secure a playoff spot in this week's Drops, Swaps and Shops.
Marvin Jones Jr.
If you look up "Marvin Jones" in an ESPN Fantasy league, there's a video titled, "Is it time to drop Marvin Jones Jr.?" The answer is yes, it's time to let go of the former staple in Matthew Stafford's pass attack.
Drafted in 2012, the 30-year-old veteran signed a five-year, $40 million contract with the Lions in 2016. He balled out in 2017, delivering a 1,000+ yard season, but he's put up quiet WR2 numbers ever since. This season, he's only logged 146 yards. Jones has a name, he's had game, but it's time to dissociate from anyone who isn't Kenny Golladay.
Speaking of legacies that haven't carried on, Kerryon Johnson is another once-capable Lions player who's been crowded out of his position group. With the addition of Adrian Peterson and D'Andre Swift, Johnson has been lost in the shuffle, ranking third in a RB committee on a weak offense. The Lions might turn around their 2-3 season, but it doesn't look like Johnson will have much opportunity unless someone gets hurt. He can wait it out on your bench, but it's probably time to let go entirely.
#Lions Week 6 RB snap rates: D'Andre Swift - 38% Adrian Peterson - 35% Kerryon Johnson - 22% https://t.co/p1PC9kgU7a— Jared Smola (@Jared Smola) 1603109470.0
While the Lions may have a crowded backfield, the 49ers have a confounding one. Each week, there's a rotation of guys running the ball due to injuries.
Updated Full Team Injury Report: Nick Bosa: Torn ACL Solomon Thomas: Torn ACL (Likely) Jimmy Garoppolo: High Ankle… https://t.co/OOSsZLQClD— Slightly Depressed 49er Fan (@Slightly Depressed 49er Fan) 1600641050.0
Raheem Mostert is the starter when healthy, but Jerick McKinnon, Jeff Wilson Jr. and JaMycal Hasty have all made appearances this season. With Mostert out and only McKinnon and Hasty healthy, it's time to let go of Coleman, the IR player who Kyle Shanahan called a "long shot" to be activated in Week 6.
🚨 Raheem Mostert 🚨 As expected, high ankle sprain. Typical timeline is 3-4 weeks minimum, so yes the IR short ter… https://t.co/Gfm3iGjoup— Jeff Mueller, PT, DPT (@Jeff Mueller, PT, DPT) 1603147214.0
Earlier in the season, I passed on a trade offer involving Hayden Hurst for Nick Chubb. While it was an unequal trade at the time, Chubb's IR status and Hurst's burst in recent weeks would have at least given me more points than a benched feature back.
Making it look easy, @haydenrhurst 🙌 📺 FOX https://t.co/tHTvHOsyl0— Atlanta Falcons (@Atlanta Falcons) 1603050993.0
In an explosive offense that won its first game sans Quinn, Hurst has made the most of his catches, averaging at least 12 YPC in four out of the last six games while scoring touchdowns in three of them. While his volume isn't high, Hurst could be worth something for his red zone looks in an offense that can only go up from here.
Last week I plugged in Hayden Hurst over Mike Gesicki and ended with 2.80 fantasy points while Gesicki in bench had… https://t.co/DbSGsukTqb— Angelo Lopez (@Angelo Lopez) 1603135645.0
Ever since Nick Foles stepped up under center for the Bears, everything has vastly improved—including Allen Robinson's fantasy value. We've seen how quickly a receiver's value can fluctuate depending on who's throwing the ball, and Robinson is now the 11th overall receiver after Week 5.
Mr. Go get it @AllenRobinson #TeamISE https://t.co/V1JUATNkp2— ISE Football (@ISE Football) 1603219790.0
Despite a disappointing fantasy showing against the Panthers this Sunday, Robinson still turned five catches into 53 yards, which isn't bad for the Bears' top receiver. If you're looking for a more consistent receiver and need to land someone in a trade, it wouldn't hurt to have Robinson on your roster.
Trading Mike Evans may sound like a terrible idea—the guy is tied with Randy Moss for the most consecutive 1,000-yard seasons to start a career—but the reappearance of Chris Godwin creates a case for trading the red zone threat for something big.
Me deciding if I should start Mike Evans in fantasy every week https://t.co/TaLNgYJnIE— Cade Argo (@Cade Argo) 1603063768.0
Yes, Brady's favored 6'5" target is tied with Adam Thielen for the most touchdowns this season, but Evans has been playing through a sore ankle in recent weeks, resulting in a lone 10-yard catch against the Packers. Interestingly enough, Evans' target share dipped in Weeks 1, 3, and 6—the same weeks when Chris Godwin was healthy. With Godwin on the mend, it's possible that Evans could see less targets in a more diversified offense. If you need an RB1 or RB2/WR2, this could be a risk worth taking.
Tight End Targets: Anthony Firkser & Darren Fells
If Ertz and Gronk have been letting you down, it's time to let go and do a little tight end shopping in free agency. Lucky for you, Anthony Firkser showed up this week as a worthy replacement for Jonnu Smith, while Darren Fells has been filling in quite nicely for Jordan Akins. With injuries devastating the league left and right, these backup tight ends are worth starting as long as their starters are out.
Totally believe in Jonnu Smith as a tier 1 TE. I really do. But really need to know if he is out this week. If so… https://t.co/4JB4mFUQpO— Howie The Titan (@Howie The Titan) 1603218681.0
Travis Fulgham should have been targeted in free agency last week after a monster 152-yard game, but ICYMI, Fulgham is the guy to have after another impressive showing against Baltimore.
Eagles projected skill positions this Thursday against the Giants. RB: Boston Scott RB: Corey Clement WR: Greg Ward… https://t.co/lqOa1mgWrf— Karlo (@Karlo) 1603221501.0
It's hard to say how long this will last, as he's filling in for fallen Eagles comrades Alshon Jeffery, DeSean Jackson and Jalen Reagor, but as long as they're out, Fulgham is literally the last man standing. He's available in over half of ESPN leagues, so if he's there, be prepared to splurge on Fulgham.
Week 6 #Fantasy Breakouts #NFL #FantasyFootball Player | Fantasy Pts.| Pct. Owned Trey Burton (IND) | 17.9 | 17% An… https://t.co/N7RHCxWLXc— The Daily NFL + Fantasy Football (@The Daily NFL + Fantasy Football) 1603213529.0
Another receiver that could have been targeted after Week 4, Broncos receiver Tim Patrick has been getting less attention than Fulgham in fantasy despite back-to-back games with over 100 yards.
Tim Patrick is the first Bronco with back-to-back 100-yard receiving games since Emmanuel Sanders in 2018 https://t.co/sEJM6UZGfx— Colorado Betting Boys (@Colorado Betting Boys) 1603223160.0
Patrick has been maximizing his impact, getting at least 10 yards per reception in all but one game this season, while making an end zone appearance twice. Patrick needs to be on your roster, like, yesterday—and since he's rostered in less than 20 percent of ESPN leagues, he's an easier get than Fulgham.
The Best NFL Prop Bet Research Tool Is Finally Here
Until now, there was a void in the industry. An all-in-one prop bet research tool for Over/Under rankings did not exist. Fantasy SP has changed that.
Of course, you could find betting trends on the internet but there wasn’t a place where you could have all the information for every single player on the same page at your fingertips. Well, we wanted to change that. We’ve created the definitive NFL prop bet research tool for pros and newbies alike.
In a typical NFL week, there can be over 1,000 player prop lines available. Traditional player game logs are not optimal for researching player props. Our unique tool allows you to quickly analyze thousands of lines on your phone, tablet, or computer, and find the props with the greatest value. Don’t just bet on the players you like. Become more data-driven with your props research by using Fantasy SP’s Player Prop Over/Under Rankings!
This is the perfect prop bet research tool to make some serious cash. Place informed bets using relevant analytics and increase your chances of seeing your bankroll increase.
All | Pass Yds | Pass TDs| Pass Comp | Pass Att | Rush Att | Rush Yds | Rec | Rec Yds
With our brand-new Player Prop Over/Under Rankings Research Tool, users will be able to filter by tons of critical data points including home vs. away, favorite vs. underdog, player popularity, last few games, indoor vs. outdoor, specific props, specific teams, position rank, opponent rank, and so much more!
Research Prop Bet Betting Example
Okay, enough talk, and let’s get to a simple real-world example of how to use the tool to help you place a bet.
For example, Jared Goff has had some of the most ridiculous home/away splits in 2022.
Goff has a passer rating of 106.9 with 2,217 yards (277.1 yards per game), 20 touchdowns, and 3 interceptions in eight games at home this season. Pretty good, right? On the road, he has a passer rating of 82.5 with 1,387 yards (231.2 yards per game), 3 touchdowns, and 4 interceptions in six games.
As you can see, Goff is averaging 46 more yards per game at home in 2022 entering Week 16. Vegas may try to trick you when Goff is on the road after coming off a massive home game but by using our tool, you won’t be fooled.
Goff has a 5-3 O-U record on his passing yard props at Ford Field this season. While his average line at home on DraftKings is 247 yards, his average result is 277.1 passing yards. Prior to throwing for 250+ yards against the Jets at the Meadowlands in Week 15, he was 2-3 on his passing yards props on the road. His average line on DraftKings on the road was only 10 yards fewer heading into Week 15 yet he averaged a full 50 fewer yards per game (227). This shows a clear pattern that he is much more successful at hitting the over and much more efficient when playing in front of his home crowd. There are countless examples of patterns you can spot using this brand-new prop tool that are even more eye-popping than Goff’s numbers.
How to Find Favorable Prop Bets
The key to placing informed bets is to place bets on clear patterns. Ideally, you want to see a player consistently going over or under. Grab a concise list of potential bets to place and compare to the lines at your favorite operator.
Let’s say you want to place a passing yards prop bet on Tom Brady. You check all the lines at your favorite operator (we suggest
Caesars or FanDuel) and need to put his line into context. How often does he go over? What outcomes occur against an easy matchup? What is his average result? How does he do at home versus on the road?
Using our exclusive Over-Under Rankings, you can utilize our premium filters to find out Brady’s historical prop record at home versus the road is even more volatile than Goff’s splits. (This is good and what we want to see.)
At home, Brady is averaging a whopping 307.3 passing yards and has hit the over in six of seven games heading into Week 15.
On the road, while his average line is only two yards fewer (271.2 to 269.2), he has a 1-5 O-U record and is only averaging 239 passing yards per game.
Fantasy SP has just highlighted a very promising prop bet whenever Brady is at home. Take the over. And when he is on the road, it’s a prime spot to smash the under.
Some players also tend to do much better when their team is the favorite such as running backs late in the fourth quarter when their team needs to kill time. Heading into Week 15, Dalvin Cook had a 7-2 O-U rushing yard record when his team was the favorite (79.9 yards per game). Conversely, when the Vikings were underdogs, he was 1-3 (57.8 yards per game). This is why filtering by favorite or underdog can be a critical data point to help you gain an edge at sportsbooks.
You can also filter by the last few games in case a player has begun to heat up or cool off. These filters will help you nail your bets in very specific scenarios. It’s the perfect tool for situational prop betting.
What the Experts Are Saying
Don’t simply trust our word. We provided a free preview to professional bettors and journalists and this is what they had to say:
“I don’t place my player prop parlays until checking out Fantasy SP’s Prop Bet Rankings. This is the only place where I can get an in-depth historical analysis of every player in the League before placing my wagers!”
Matthew Rumack, Professional Sports Bettor
“This tool provides insight that I haven’t seen anywhere else in the sports betting industry. Fantasy SP has developed something truly unique. The premium filters that allow me to figure out how each player has performed in very specific situations are simply next-level. I will not be placing prop bets before using this tool for research!”
Mark Morales-Smith, Senior Fantasy & Gambling Writer
“The features of this prop research tool are simply awesome. It’s easy to use, easy to understand, and incredibly powerful. There is so much data at your fingertips. This is an essential piece to finding player prop betting value.”
Dan Hickman, Professional Gambling Writer
The dropdowns and filters on this tool are what really make this a game-changing feature. If you only want to see the most popular players on the page, simply slide the popularity to 75% or 100%. If you want to see players’ over-under records and their average results for only home games, simply click Home on the dropdown. If you want to see over-under records for players against teams in the bottom 5 at defending that position, simply click Bottom 5 under Position Rank. Not only can you get all of this insight, but the sliders and dropdowns all work interactively with a user-friendly interface so you can find out how a player is doing in a very specific situation. For example, let’s say Dak Prescott and the Cowboys are hosting the top-five San Francisco 49ers defense and are four-point underdogs. To get a much clearer picture of how Prescott has performed in similar situations, you can check off Home, Underdog, Indoor, and Top 5 under Opponent Rank to get his exact over-under prop historical record in this particular situation. If he is 0-3 on his passing yard prop in this scenario, you may want to smash the under.
NFL prop betting can be overwhelming but this tool makes it easy to research the best bets for novices and seasoned vets alike. Bettors should not be placing their prop bets before doing the necessary research. Now you can do all that research on one page with Fantasy SP’s Player Prop Over/Under Rankings Research Tool! It doesn’t get much better than that.
Stay tuned for our future article on even more in-depth tips and tricks.
France vs Argentina World Cup Final Betting Preview: Can Lionel Messi Capture That Elusive World Cup Title?
Picking up where they left off in 2018, the French National Team led by 23-year-old Kylian Mbappe have found their way back into the finals as they look to be the first back-to-back World Cup Champions since Brazil’s dominant runs in 1958 and 1962. Standing between that incredible feat for the defending champions is Argentina, who currently have their superstar, Lionel Messi, in top form. Messi is finding ways to create passes no one can see and he’s done it multiple times, assisting three goals (tied for the most) throughout the tournament. The legend is also scoring goals of his own and is tied with Kylian Mbappe (5 goals) for Golden Boot honors in this year’s World Cup. Regardless, soccer fans around the world are in for a treat on Sunday at 10:00 AM EST as two of the best players in the world face each other for their country’s World Cup glory.
After winning Group D, France defeated Poland in the Round of 16, England in the quarterfinals, and a strong Morocco team in the semis to advance to the Final. On the other side of the bracket, Argentina won Group C and dispatched Australia in the Round of 16. Messi and the Argentinians were then tested in the quarterfinals, needing a penalty shootout to defeat the Netherlands after blowing a late two-goal lead. Finally, Argentina played perhaps their best match of the tournament against Croatia in the semi-finals, winning 3-0. Now the stage is set for a blockbuster finale between two powerhouses featuring some of the top players in the world.
Note (from FanDuel Sportsbook): No team will play at home during Qatar's World Cup. For betting purposes, FanDuel explains that: “Home Team refers to the team listed first, Away Team refers to the second team listed.”
Argentina (-104) vs. France (-112)
Argentina Keys To Victory
Lionel Messi has played incredibly for Argentina throughout this World Cup. He is leaving opposing defenders in the dust, taking on multiple players at once, dragging them away from his teammates, which is opening up the field for his fellow goal scorers. Every time Messi has the ball at his feet, there seems to be more than one threat. Messi is playing just as well as he always has in 2022. He’s served his team as a playmaker and as a goal-scorer in Qatar. He’s also had some help from Manchester City forward Julian Alvarez who’s scored a handful of goals in this World Cup (including two in Argentina’s decisive victory over Croatia). If Alvarez and Messi are able to link up while on the attack, the depleted French defense and midfield could be in for some trouble.
France Keys To Victory
One of the biggest headlines heading into this World Cup Final is the return of French striker Karim Benzema. The Real Madrid star and winner of this year’s Ballon D’Or hurt his hamstring in one of France’s first practices soon after arriving in Qatar. He flew back to Madrid where he immediately completed his recovery work which was set at three weeks from the time of injury. Right now, Benzema is flying back to Doha and could be starting for France in the final. At the moment, France’s HC Didier Deschamps has declined to comment on whether or not he will be including KB9 in the starting lineup. France’s ball movement has been excellent throughout the tournament, but their key to victory against Argentina will be efficient defense. Over the last few games, France’s defense seems to have slowed down. Not only will they need to stop Messi, but they will need to turn defensive stops into counterattacks. Mbappe and Olivier Giroud (four goals thus far in the tournament) will need to be electric on offense and test the Argentinian keeper. Antoine Griezmann may be an x-factor for France as he has three assists in this World Cup and was inches away from scoring against Morocco.
It’s only fitting that Lionel Messi will finally hoist the World Cup trophy in his last World Cup match. Expect him to score a goal and lead his team to victory in a tightly contested battle.
The Pick: Argentina (-104)
World Cup Final Best Prop Bets
Kylian Mbappe: To Score Or Give Assist (+100)
Mbappé has been relatively quiet over France’s last few games. Still, he is the main wing on France’s team who is capable of breaking down defenses through his skillful technique and ridiculous speed. He currently is tied with Messi for the most goals in the 2022 World Cup. If he isn’t able to score in this game, then expect him to at least make an assist. For France to win this one, the 23-year-old will need to have a big game.
Lionel Messi: Anytime Goalscorer (+190)
Messi has stepped up his performance big time this World Cup. If you have watched Argentina play in this tournament, you know how crucial of a role Messi has played in the team’s success. He is tied for the most goals in the tournament with Mbappe and has a great chance of putting the ball in the net at some point during Sunday’s big match. This is a particularly great prop to target since Messi takes all of Argentina’s penalty shots and has converted four-of-five throughout the tournament.
Fantasy SP has worked diligently to bring you next-level sports betting analytics, prop betting tools, public betting splits, and so much more! Become an Edge+ member today!
Here’s Why December Is The Best Month To Join FanDuel
Calling every sports fan across the globe! The best month for all things sports is here: December. NFL and CFB are getting into the thick of things — I mean, we are finally not seeing Alabama and Clemson in the CFP, not to mention both the NBA and NHL are underway and college basketball just tipped off!
Despite all of these different sporting events going on, the World’s biggest Sporting event is down to the Semifinals, the World Cup.
Although Soccer is the World's most popular sport, it still struggles to gain support in the US. However, every 4 years Soccer takes the country by storm and this year, and these last few games are going to be amazing.
Let us introduce you to your new go-to app, FanDuel Sportsbook. It’s the place to be for not only the usual sports, but for this year's World Cup!
FanDuel Sportsbook is providing a multitude of features with a few market differentiators.
- World Cup Winner
- Who will win the Golden Boot (the award for the top goal scorer of the World Cup)
- Highest scoring Group
- And more
- Popular Markets - outside of the normal Moneyline, Spread & Over/Under lines, FanDuel will also be offering:
- Anytime Goal Scorer
- First Goal Scorer
- Shots on Goal
- Correct Score
- Number of Corner Kicks
- Half-Time Result
- Tournament Goal Scorer Parlay Builder - build your own tournament-long Goal Scorer parlays with your favorite players from every team.
- Daily Specials:
- Highest scoring team of the day
- Total daily goals
- Player specials
- And More!
- Live Parlays
Out of all the betting apps we’ve used, signing up for FanDuel Sportsbook is also the easiest. Simply download the app and create an account by providing an email, credit card, and SS# — that’s to protect your winnings and ensure you're not a sporting professional.
FanDuel is undoubtedly the best site/app to parlay across multiple sports. It’s designed for bettors at any stage. The clear interface is ideal for beginners and you can make a bet in just a few clicks! It’s complete with a number of betting guides that explain the rules and resources to safely bet.
One of the best parts is that once the game ends, you can cash out your winnings right away. No minimum, no wait.
There’s also the incredible New User Offer: sign up with FanDuel Sportsbook and get up to $1000 in Free Bets if you lose your first bet!
Their app has everything you need — from tutorials to real-time game scores. Get amped for the World Cup with FanDuel Sportsbook. Enhance your Sportsember by downloading the FanDuel Sportsbook app today!