Here’s Who to Drop, Swap, and Shop for Week 5
In a world where defenses no longer seem to matter, a new crop of receivers and tight ends are on the come up every week.
If you were one of the smart ones who predicted the Steelers and Buccaneers would have the best defenses, congratulations. The rest of us are stuck with unpredictable streaming options because no free agency D/ST is worth a long-term investment at the moment.
That being said, we turn our attention this week to the guys who are earning points: wide receivers, tight ends, and a few running backs who are stepping up, largely due to the myriad injuries plaguing NFL rosters. This also means some guys should be stepping off your roster, as they haven't been producing as they should, or they're likely to peak this week.
Here are the drops, swaps and shops to make in Week 5.
NFL: Indianapolis Colts at Jacksonville Jaguars Douglas DeFelice-USA TODAY Sports
Despite his breakout Week 1 performance, Nyheim Hines isn't the pass-catching back he's perhaps capable of becoming. Fellow Indy running back Jordan Wilkins matched his nine carries, and while neither amounted to much on Sunday (Hines averaged 2.7 YPC), Hines is more likely to still be rostered after three deflating weeks. Although the Colts are successful at 3-1, as long as there aren't pass-catching opportunities for Hines, he shouldn't start for your team.
NFL: Detroit Lions at Arizona Cardinals Billy Hardiman-USA TODAY Sports
If you drafted Fitzgerald for sentimental reasons and with the hope that Murray and Hopkins would improve the Cardinals passing offense, you were right about one thing—but unfortunately, that "thing" wasn't Fitz's production.
Fitzgerald is a definite Hall of Famer who has made it work with over 20 different quarterbacks, but in his 17th season, he just isn't getting that elite attention on the field. Despite a decent showing against Washington, he's had only three catches for four yards in the two weeks since. Arizona is likely to have a field day against the 0-4 Jets, but besides that, Fitz likely won't show up this season fantasy-wise.
@burst_sports Kyler is still a young QB, Christian Kirk is struggling, DHop is balling out, Kenyan Drake hasn't bee… https://t.co/lLKzeVaMrL— TrashTalk Sports (@TrashTalk Sports) 1602021400.0
Syndication: The Enquirer Sam Greene via Imagn Content Services, LLC
Another player still resting on the fantasy laurels of years past, A.J. Green is rostered in 93.6 percent of fantasy leagues… despite averaging 4.7 fantasy points so far this season.
Another troubling stat is his 41.2 percent catch rate this season. Meanwhile, fellow Bengals receiver Tyler Boyd is averaging 11.4 yards per reception, ranking him 17th amongst fantasy wide receivers. Clearly, Burrow and Boyd are not the problem, which means it's time to part ways with Green.
How bad has A.J Green been in fantasy football this year?? Let me get out this ridiculous unabridged Week 4 fanta… https://t.co/tqMxPs87au— Stathole Sports (@Stathole Sports) 1602026580.0
Flex For Flex
NFL: Cincinnati Bengals at Philadelphia Eagles Eric Hartline-USA TODAY Sports
Fantasy benches are full of players that are still too good to drop, and this former fantasy TE stunner is one of them. Over a few years and many, many different Eagles receivers, Ertz has been a constant in an offense that has remained competitive in their division until now. Everything seems to be going wrong with the Eagles offense this year, and unfortunately, that has soured Ertz' fantasy value—he's scored under 10 points in three games.
Although it hurts to consider, if you can find a way to get something for Ertz, now is the time. He's still riding off his name and you may be able to get a surer thing than continuing to take a gamble on this Eagles casualty.
Why Joe took Zach Ertz in the fifth round of his fantasy draft https://t.co/GTdjoJ17Vx https://t.co/QPVXbQeatL— PlayBoy Carti Janetty (@PlayBoy Carti Janetty) 1602028304.0
David Johnson & Brandin Cooks
NFL: Minnesota Vikings at Houston Texans Troy Taormina-USA TODAY Sports
Long before head coach/GM/hopeful playcaller Bill O'Brien was fired this week after his fourth straight loss this season, Johnson and Cooks have been disappointing fantasy managers with their lackluster production.
Johnson and Cooks can play—Johnson's 2016 was unforgettable, and Cooks boasts four 1,000+ seasons on three different teams—but the question has been whether they will play for the Texans. Johnson has been decent so far and managed to score at least 10 points in three games, but Cooks has been abysmal besides a singular 12 point game.
Whether you have both or just one, these two will likely be a risk with new management, but things could improve with former Patriots defensive coordinator Romeo Crennel as the head coach. If you can sell Crennel and his crew to a buyer, it could be a boom if you're in the market for someone else.
Odell Beckham Jr.
NFL: Cincinnati Bengals at Cleveland Browns Ken Blaze-USA TODAY Sports
This may sound insane, but Beckham's Week 4 fantasy miracle follows a week where he couldn't muster eight fantasy points. Don't get me wrong, the guy can obviously catch, but he hasn't quite been the same OBJ when sharing the field with college friend and fellow talent Jarvis Landry. OBJ is no longer carrying the Giants offense, and the Browns have options—his 5 targets for 81 yards is the most he's had in a game all season, and without his touchdowns, he'd only have 13 points in PPR leagues. Beckham will still have big games, but you may not know when those games will happen—but you can likely get an RB1 or RB2 for Beckham now if you need one.
🎩🎩🎩 for @obj!!! Watch a replay of the @Browns' thrilling win over the Cowboys tomorrow night at 6:30 on SportsTime… https://t.co/W5dO4POxrz— FOX Sports Cleveland (@FOX Sports Cleveland) 1602031280.0
NFL: Atlanta Falcons at Green Bay Packers Jeff Hanisch-USA TODAY Sports
He was only rostered in 13.1 percent of ESPN Fantasy leagues, but Robert Tonyan was worth stashing on your bench after solid Week 2 and 3 performances. Then the Green Bay TE went and caught all six targets for 98 yards and three touchdowns, getting fantasy managers around 30 points depending on scoring. He's going to be the hottest pickup this week, so let's hope you're first in line or have money to blow in waivers this week.
looking at Robert Tonyan on my bench like https://t.co/BlG7wmgZ2d— Mina Kimes (@Mina Kimes) 1601953508.0
NFL: Los Angeles Chargers at Tampa Bay Buccaneers Kim Klement-USA TODAY Sports
If Scotty Miller looks kind of familiar, it's because he fulfills a favored Brady profile: he's short, he's white, and he's a slot guy who can make the catch. Miller runs in Julian Edelman/Wes Welker territory, and as Tom Brady stabilizes in a Bucs offense that's on a three-game winning streak, Miller stands to benefit in the weeks to come. With Godwin sidelined, Miller could be a good pickup that stands to produce decently if you need a flex.
Week 5 WR Stream #1 - TB Scotty Miller Miller draws a tough matchup vs the Bears secondary, but it seems as though… https://t.co/79Yrom3El6— The Fantasy Streamer (@The Fantasy Streamer) 1602018558.0
NFL: Buffalo Bills at Miami Dolphins Jasen Vinlove-USA TODAY Sports
I've had Beasley on and off since he was on the Cowboys, then left to join them in Buffalo—but on Josh Allen's rejuvenated offense, he's worth picking up for a guaranteed 10 points every week. While he garnered at least six targets in the first three games, his four-target game Sunday was complemented by his first touchdown of the year. As his chemistry with Josh Allen grows, Beasley stands to gain a steady stream of looks and is worth stashing on your bench for future flex play.
In 2017-2018, the #billsmafia ‘s weak wide receiver unit was “led” by 2nd round bust Zay Jones, underperforming Kel… https://t.co/tOkvIBwU6S— Steve (@Steve) 1602029328.0
In 2017-2018, the #billsmafia ‘s weak wide receiver unit was “led” by 2nd round bust Zay Jones, underperforming Kel… https://t.co/tOkvIBwU6S— Steve (@Steve) 1602029328.0
- Here's Who to Drop, Swap and Shop for Week 6 - Find Bet ›
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The Best NFL Prop Bet Research Tool Is Finally Here
Until now, there was a void in the industry. An all-in-one prop bet research tool for Over/Under rankings did not exist. Fantasy SP has changed that.
Of course, you could find betting trends on the internet but there wasn’t a place where you could have all the information for every single player on the same page at your fingertips. Well, we wanted to change that. We’ve created the definitive NFL prop bet research tool for pros and newbies alike.
In a typical NFL week, there can be over 1,000 player prop lines available. Traditional player game logs are not optimal for researching player props. Our unique tool allows you to quickly analyze thousands of lines on your phone, tablet, or computer, and find the props with the greatest value. Don’t just bet on the players you like. Become more data-driven with your props research by using Fantasy SP’s Player Prop Over/Under Rankings!
This is the perfect prop bet research tool to make some serious cash. Place informed bets using relevant analytics and increase your chances of seeing your bankroll increase.
All | Pass Yds | Pass TDs| Pass Comp | Pass Att | Rush Att | Rush Yds | Rec | Rec Yds
With our brand-new Player Prop Over/Under Rankings Research Tool, users will be able to filter by tons of critical data points including home vs. away, favorite vs. underdog, player popularity, last few games, indoor vs. outdoor, specific props, specific teams, position rank, opponent rank, and so much more!
Research Prop Bet Betting Example
Okay, enough talk, and let’s get to a simple real-world example of how to use the tool to help you place a bet.
For example, Jared Goff has had some of the most ridiculous home/away splits in 2022.
Goff has a passer rating of 106.9 with 2,217 yards (277.1 yards per game), 20 touchdowns, and 3 interceptions in eight games at home this season. Pretty good, right? On the road, he has a passer rating of 82.5 with 1,387 yards (231.2 yards per game), 3 touchdowns, and 4 interceptions in six games.
As you can see, Goff is averaging 46 more yards per game at home in 2022 entering Week 16. Vegas may try to trick you when Goff is on the road after coming off a massive home game but by using our tool, you won’t be fooled.
Goff has a 5-3 O-U record on his passing yard props at Ford Field this season. While his average line at home on DraftKings is 247 yards, his average result is 277.1 passing yards. Prior to throwing for 250+ yards against the Jets at the Meadowlands in Week 15, he was 2-3 on his passing yards props on the road. His average line on DraftKings on the road was only 10 yards fewer heading into Week 15 yet he averaged a full 50 fewer yards per game (227). This shows a clear pattern that he is much more successful at hitting the over and much more efficient when playing in front of his home crowd. There are countless examples of patterns you can spot using this brand-new prop tool that are even more eye-popping than Goff’s numbers.
How to Find Favorable Prop Bets
The key to placing informed bets is to place bets on clear patterns. Ideally, you want to see a player consistently going over or under. Grab a concise list of potential bets to place and compare to the lines at your favorite operator.
Let’s say you want to place a passing yards prop bet on Tom Brady. You check all the lines at your favorite operator (we suggest
Caesars or FanDuel) and need to put his line into context. How often does he go over? What outcomes occur against an easy matchup? What is his average result? How does he do at home versus on the road?
Using our exclusive Over-Under Rankings, you can utilize our premium filters to find out Brady’s historical prop record at home versus the road is even more volatile than Goff’s splits. (This is good and what we want to see.)
At home, Brady is averaging a whopping 307.3 passing yards and has hit the over in six of seven games heading into Week 15.
On the road, while his average line is only two yards fewer (271.2 to 269.2), he has a 1-5 O-U record and is only averaging 239 passing yards per game.
Fantasy SP has just highlighted a very promising prop bet whenever Brady is at home. Take the over. And when he is on the road, it’s a prime spot to smash the under.
Some players also tend to do much better when their team is the favorite such as running backs late in the fourth quarter when their team needs to kill time. Heading into Week 15, Dalvin Cook had a 7-2 O-U rushing yard record when his team was the favorite (79.9 yards per game). Conversely, when the Vikings were underdogs, he was 1-3 (57.8 yards per game). This is why filtering by favorite or underdog can be a critical data point to help you gain an edge at sportsbooks.
You can also filter by the last few games in case a player has begun to heat up or cool off. These filters will help you nail your bets in very specific scenarios. It’s the perfect tool for situational prop betting.
What the Experts Are Saying
Don’t simply trust our word. We provided a free preview to professional bettors and journalists and this is what they had to say:
“I don’t place my player prop parlays until checking out Fantasy SP’s Prop Bet Rankings. This is the only place where I can get an in-depth historical analysis of every player in the League before placing my wagers!”
Matthew Rumack, Professional Sports Bettor
“This tool provides insight that I haven’t seen anywhere else in the sports betting industry. Fantasy SP has developed something truly unique. The premium filters that allow me to figure out how each player has performed in very specific situations are simply next-level. I will not be placing prop bets before using this tool for research!”
Mark Morales-Smith, Senior Fantasy & Gambling Writer
“The features of this prop research tool are simply awesome. It’s easy to use, easy to understand, and incredibly powerful. There is so much data at your fingertips. This is an essential piece to finding player prop betting value.”
Dan Hickman, Professional Gambling Writer
The dropdowns and filters on this tool are what really make this a game-changing feature. If you only want to see the most popular players on the page, simply slide the popularity to 75% or 100%. If you want to see players’ over-under records and their average results for only home games, simply click Home on the dropdown. If you want to see over-under records for players against teams in the bottom 5 at defending that position, simply click Bottom 5 under Position Rank. Not only can you get all of this insight, but the sliders and dropdowns all work interactively with a user-friendly interface so you can find out how a player is doing in a very specific situation. For example, let’s say Dak Prescott and the Cowboys are hosting the top-five San Francisco 49ers defense and are four-point underdogs. To get a much clearer picture of how Prescott has performed in similar situations, you can check off Home, Underdog, Indoor, and Top 5 under Opponent Rank to get his exact over-under prop historical record in this particular situation. If he is 0-3 on his passing yard prop in this scenario, you may want to smash the under.
NFL prop betting can be overwhelming but this tool makes it easy to research the best bets for novices and seasoned vets alike. Bettors should not be placing their prop bets before doing the necessary research. Now you can do all that research on one page with Fantasy SP’s Player Prop Over/Under Rankings Research Tool! It doesn’t get much better than that.
Stay tuned for our future article on even more in-depth tips and tricks.
France vs Argentina World Cup Final Betting Preview: Can Lionel Messi Capture That Elusive World Cup Title?
Picking up where they left off in 2018, the French National Team led by 23-year-old Kylian Mbappe have found their way back into the finals as they look to be the first back-to-back World Cup Champions since Brazil’s dominant runs in 1958 and 1962. Standing between that incredible feat for the defending champions is Argentina, who currently have their superstar, Lionel Messi, in top form. Messi is finding ways to create passes no one can see and he’s done it multiple times, assisting three goals (tied for the most) throughout the tournament. The legend is also scoring goals of his own and is tied with Kylian Mbappe (5 goals) for Golden Boot honors in this year’s World Cup. Regardless, soccer fans around the world are in for a treat on Sunday at 10:00 AM EST as two of the best players in the world face each other for their country’s World Cup glory.
After winning Group D, France defeated Poland in the Round of 16, England in the quarterfinals, and a strong Morocco team in the semis to advance to the Final. On the other side of the bracket, Argentina won Group C and dispatched Australia in the Round of 16. Messi and the Argentinians were then tested in the quarterfinals, needing a penalty shootout to defeat the Netherlands after blowing a late two-goal lead. Finally, Argentina played perhaps their best match of the tournament against Croatia in the semi-finals, winning 3-0. Now the stage is set for a blockbuster finale between two powerhouses featuring some of the top players in the world.
Note (from FanDuel Sportsbook): No team will play at home during Qatar's World Cup. For betting purposes, FanDuel explains that: “Home Team refers to the team listed first, Away Team refers to the second team listed.”
Argentina (-104) vs. France (-112)
Argentina Keys To Victory
Lionel Messi has played incredibly for Argentina throughout this World Cup. He is leaving opposing defenders in the dust, taking on multiple players at once, dragging them away from his teammates, which is opening up the field for his fellow goal scorers. Every time Messi has the ball at his feet, there seems to be more than one threat. Messi is playing just as well as he always has in 2022. He’s served his team as a playmaker and as a goal-scorer in Qatar. He’s also had some help from Manchester City forward Julian Alvarez who’s scored a handful of goals in this World Cup (including two in Argentina’s decisive victory over Croatia). If Alvarez and Messi are able to link up while on the attack, the depleted French defense and midfield could be in for some trouble.
France Keys To Victory
One of the biggest headlines heading into this World Cup Final is the return of French striker Karim Benzema. The Real Madrid star and winner of this year’s Ballon D’Or hurt his hamstring in one of France’s first practices soon after arriving in Qatar. He flew back to Madrid where he immediately completed his recovery work which was set at three weeks from the time of injury. Right now, Benzema is flying back to Doha and could be starting for France in the final. At the moment, France’s HC Didier Deschamps has declined to comment on whether or not he will be including KB9 in the starting lineup. France’s ball movement has been excellent throughout the tournament, but their key to victory against Argentina will be efficient defense. Over the last few games, France’s defense seems to have slowed down. Not only will they need to stop Messi, but they will need to turn defensive stops into counterattacks. Mbappe and Olivier Giroud (four goals thus far in the tournament) will need to be electric on offense and test the Argentinian keeper. Antoine Griezmann may be an x-factor for France as he has three assists in this World Cup and was inches away from scoring against Morocco.
It’s only fitting that Lionel Messi will finally hoist the World Cup trophy in his last World Cup match. Expect him to score a goal and lead his team to victory in a tightly contested battle.
The Pick: Argentina (-104)
World Cup Final Best Prop Bets
Kylian Mbappe: To Score Or Give Assist (+100)
Mbappé has been relatively quiet over France’s last few games. Still, he is the main wing on France’s team who is capable of breaking down defenses through his skillful technique and ridiculous speed. He currently is tied with Messi for the most goals in the 2022 World Cup. If he isn’t able to score in this game, then expect him to at least make an assist. For France to win this one, the 23-year-old will need to have a big game.
Lionel Messi: Anytime Goalscorer (+190)
Messi has stepped up his performance big time this World Cup. If you have watched Argentina play in this tournament, you know how crucial of a role Messi has played in the team’s success. He is tied for the most goals in the tournament with Mbappe and has a great chance of putting the ball in the net at some point during Sunday’s big match. This is a particularly great prop to target since Messi takes all of Argentina’s penalty shots and has converted four-of-five throughout the tournament.
Fantasy SP has worked diligently to bring you next-level sports betting analytics, prop betting tools, public betting splits, and so much more! Become an Edge+ member today!
Here’s Why December Is The Best Month To Join FanDuel
Calling every sports fan across the globe! The best month for all things sports is here: December. NFL and CFB are getting into the thick of things — I mean, we are finally not seeing Alabama and Clemson in the CFP, not to mention both the NBA and NHL are underway and college basketball just tipped off!
Despite all of these different sporting events going on, the World’s biggest Sporting event is down to the Semifinals, the World Cup.
Although Soccer is the World's most popular sport, it still struggles to gain support in the US. However, every 4 years Soccer takes the country by storm and this year, and these last few games are going to be amazing.
Let us introduce you to your new go-to app, FanDuel Sportsbook. It’s the place to be for not only the usual sports, but for this year's World Cup!
FanDuel Sportsbook is providing a multitude of features with a few market differentiators.
- World Cup Winner
- Who will win the Golden Boot (the award for the top goal scorer of the World Cup)
- Highest scoring Group
- And more
- Popular Markets - outside of the normal Moneyline, Spread & Over/Under lines, FanDuel will also be offering:
- Anytime Goal Scorer
- First Goal Scorer
- Shots on Goal
- Correct Score
- Number of Corner Kicks
- Half-Time Result
- Tournament Goal Scorer Parlay Builder - build your own tournament-long Goal Scorer parlays with your favorite players from every team.
- Daily Specials:
- Highest scoring team of the day
- Total daily goals
- Player specials
- And More!
- Live Parlays
Out of all the betting apps we’ve used, signing up for FanDuel Sportsbook is also the easiest. Simply download the app and create an account by providing an email, credit card, and SS# — that’s to protect your winnings and ensure you're not a sporting professional.
FanDuel is undoubtedly the best site/app to parlay across multiple sports. It’s designed for bettors at any stage. The clear interface is ideal for beginners and you can make a bet in just a few clicks! It’s complete with a number of betting guides that explain the rules and resources to safely bet.
One of the best parts is that once the game ends, you can cash out your winnings right away. No minimum, no wait.
There’s also the incredible New User Offer: sign up with FanDuel Sportsbook and get up to $1000 in Free Bets if you lose your first bet!
Their app has everything you need — from tutorials to real-time game scores. Get amped for the World Cup with FanDuel Sportsbook. Enhance your Sportsember by downloading the FanDuel Sportsbook app today!