The Weekly Assist: Playoff Odds After Week 13
As Ferris Bueller might say: The world of sports moves pretty fast...
... If you don't stop and look around at least once a week, you could miss it. Here we'll review what you might have missed in the past week all in one place. Why spend hours scrolling through Twitter to catch up on the news you want? We've already done that for you, so remember to check back every Monday to get your dose of weekly sports review.
It's rare this late in the season for so many teams to still be in playoff contention. With most of the games already played on the Week 13 schedule, only four teams have been mathematically eliminated from contention, those being the New York Jets, Cincinnati Bengals, Los Angeles Chargers and Jacksonville Jaguars.
With a loss to the Patriots, the Los Angeles Chargers have officially been eliminated from playoff contention. https://t.co/8wtFVyM5bh— SportsCenter (@SportsCenter) 1607301694.0
The New Orleans Saints and Kansas City Chiefs have officially clinched spots in the the post season. Pittsburgh and Green Bay are just waiting to see their names added to the list of teams that have clinched, which should happen in the next week or two. But the large majority of teams are playing for their postseason lives, and the three games left on the Week 13 schedule all have major playoff implications surrounding them.
NFL playoff picture: Saints and Chiefs clinch, and Vikings move into the NFC's No. 7 spot https://t.co/59jRijlZYZ https://t.co/wfDRgfiTOE— ESPN Los Angeles (@ESPN Los Angeles) 1607315583.0
On Monday night the Steelers will play the Washington Football Team and the Bills take on the 49ers. Every team in the NFC East has a sub .500 record, including the division leading Giants (5-7); that means that any win can thrust you to the top of the division. Washington is currently just behind them in second place, so a win tonight would go a long way in that division.
*me trying to figure out how the 49ers will win the NFC West* https://t.co/fU0pXeWMnK— Akash Anavarathan (@Akash Anavarathan) 1607297735.0
The 49ers also need a win to keep their playoff hopes alive. The NFC West has continued to be one of the most competitive divisions in football all season and with both Seattle and Arizona taking losses this week, a win would be even more important to San Francisco to make up some ground.
For the Bills, on the other hand, a loss would be disastrous, as they would then be tied with Miami at 8-4 while the Patriots seemed to have figured it out as they've won two straight and are now sitting at 6-6.
On Tuesday night the Cowboys will face the faltering Ravens, who are at least expected to get QB Lamar Jackson back for this one. On the surface it seems like an easy win for Baltimore, but their recent run of play, even with Jackson in at quarterback, has been lackluster at best.
Ravens' QB Lamar Jackson is expected to come off Reserve/COVID19 list and start Tuesday vs. the Dallas Cowboys, per sources.— Adam Schefter (@Adam Schefter) 1607263799.0
The Ravens are riding a three game losing streak and have allowed Cleveland to assert a three game lead ahead of them for second place in the AFC North and are in the top AFC Wildcard spot. If Baltimore has any chance of getting back to the playoffs, they will need the Lamar Jackson we saw last season during his MVP campaign. If we get more of the 2020 Lamar, Baltimore will need to start thinking about a new OC to replace Greg Roman, or a new QB to replace "Big Truss".
"BIG TRUSS!" —@markingram21 One year ago, Mark Ingram was turned up for his MVP @Lj_era8 🤣 https://t.co/3asitzrAhD— NFL on ESPN (@NFL on ESPN) 1605628581.0
Let's break down the AFC and NFC to see how the playoff picture is developing in Week 13.
The Steelers, Chiefs, Bills, and Titans lead their divisions. Buffalo is in a tight race in the East, as Miami is right on their heels and have a chance to draw even with Buffalo if San Francisco is able to upset them Monday night. Kansas City and Pittsburgh have significant breathing room and are more concerned about their playoff seeding since both will have spots in the postseason (barring a historic collapse from the Steelers). Tennessee is also in a close division race with Indianapolis, both 8-4 with the Titans holding the tiebreaker. But, luckily for them, they don't have a third team that can chase them down like Buffalo and Miami does.
Bill Belichick and Cam Newton have figured out a very boring and very effective way to win football games in today's NFL. The bad news for the former juggernaut is that over their last four games, three of them are against the Los Angeles Rams, the Miami Dolphins, and the Buffalo Bills. The other is against the Jets in the last week of the season.
Cam “character issues/won’t fit the Patriots way” Newton changing the culture in NE 👀👀 https://t.co/wmNFbvYFXA— PJWalkerQB1 (@PJWalkerQB1) 1607301434.0
Speaking of the Jets, the Las Vegas Raiders were the beneficiaries of the Jets' incompetence that we've seen this entire season. Derek Carr and Henry Ruggs III connected on a deep pass for a game-winning touchdown with five seconds remaining on the clock. Running an all-out blitz, the Jets left cornerback, Lamar Jackson (the other one), on an island with an Olympic level sprinter and it turned out the way you'd expect it to.
"We were down to the wire, and we knew that we needed a play." @__RUGGS and @derekcarrqb combined for the play of… https://t.co/2HDW9UKYS3— Las Vegas Raiders (@Las Vegas Raiders) 1607302801.0
The Saints are the only NFC team that holds the claim to have clinched a playoff berth already. The Packers shouldn't be too far behind. Green Bay are now 8-3 after this week's win over the Eagles, and their nearest competition in the division is Minnesota who is 6-6. Chicago and Detroit haven't yet been mathematically eliminated from playoff contention – but c'mon, let's be real; they're done.
Moving on to the Saints' division, it's a pretty similar situation. They're already in, and there's only one other team in the division that can make a playoff push, and that's the Tampa Bay Buccaneers. Tampa's season has had its share of ups and downs, but they're certainly a team that is able to turn it on and look like a Super Bowl contender at times.
The #Saints are headed to the playoffs!!! ⚜️ https://t.co/DAu3I1jo9o— New Orleans Saints (@New Orleans Saints) 1607289411.0
The Bucs will be vying for a Wild Card spot and should have a strong chance to land one coming off their Week 13 bye. Carolina and Atlanta both currently have a 1% chance of reaching the postseason both sitting at 4-8.
The East, as we've discussed at length throughout the season, is a mess. Because of the current structure of deciding NFL playoff spots, there are currently four teams in Week 13 of the NFL season that are below .500 that have a real chance at reaching the playoffs. They're ALL in the NFC East.
I want to make sure to drive home the point of how much I hate the NFC East and the NFL for allowing this to happen. That means that one of these teams will make it in over someone like the Vikings, Seattle, or the Rams, depending on who falls out of the final Wild Card spot.
Live look at the NFC East https://t.co/7ZQPbX7gH0— Annie Agar (@Annie Agar) 1607300906.0
The only other thing worth mentioning about the East is that Jalen Hurts came in to replace Carson Wentz in the Packers game and did well enough to start a QB controversy in Philadelphia. Coach Doug Pederson is definitely on the hot seat, and his fate may already be sealed.
Starting Hurts the rest of the way doesn't seem like a bad idea considering we've had 12 weeks to see if Carson Wentz can lead this team to a division crown. Considering how low-hanging that fruit is, and how poorly Wentz has done with his chance, Hurts could save the season and Pederson's job.
.@JalenHurts has his first NFL touchdown! #PHIvsGB | #FlyEaglesFly 📺: CBS https://t.co/TuRPDyFU0k— Philadelphia Eagles (@Philadelphia Eagles) 1607298753.0
Saving the best for last, the NFC West has been the opposite of the East. It's been a pleasure to watch all of the teams in the league's best division fight for positioning all season, from the quarterback play of Russell Wilson and Kyler Murray to the impressive coaching we've seen displayed from Kyle Shanahan dealing with a myriad of injuries in San Francisco. And finally, Sean McVay reworking the Rams into a much different team than who we saw in the Super Bowl two years ago.
Sean McVay on taking the lead in the NFC West: “I mean, that means absolutely nothing because there are four games left.”— Jourdan Rodrigue (@Jourdan Rodrigue) 1607301123.0
The Rams and Seahawks are both 8-4, with the Rams holding the tiebreaker. Both are in the driver's seat toward reaching the playoffs, but the Cardinals and 49ers are far from out of it. The Cardinals fell to 6-6 after losing to the aforementioned Rams this week; but for San Fran, they could reach 6-6 with a win against Buffalo tonight in primetime. Neither are close to being out contention with four games left on the schedule, but at least one of them will be left on the outside looking in when it comes to the playoffs this year.
Until now, there was a void in the industry. An all-in-one prop bet research tool for Over/Under rankings did not exist. Fantasy SP has changed that.
Of course, you could find betting trends on the internet but there wasn’t a place where you could have all the information for every single player on the same page at your fingertips. Well, we wanted to change that. We’ve created the definitive NFL prop bet research tool for pros and newbies alike.
In a typical NFL week, there can be over 1,000 player prop lines available. Traditional player game logs are not optimal for researching player props. Our unique tool allows you to quickly analyze thousands of lines on your phone, tablet, or computer, and find the props with the greatest value. Don’t just bet on the players you like. Become more data-driven with your props research by using Fantasy SP’s Player Prop Over/Under Rankings!
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Research Prop Bet Betting Example
Okay, enough talk, and let’s get to a simple real-world example of how to use the tool to help you place a bet.
For example, Jared Goff has had some of the most ridiculous home/away splits in 2022.
Goff has a passer rating of 106.9 with 2,217 yards (277.1 yards per game), 20 touchdowns, and 3 interceptions in eight games at home this season. Pretty good, right? On the road, he has a passer rating of 82.5 with 1,387 yards (231.2 yards per game), 3 touchdowns, and 4 interceptions in six games.
As you can see, Goff is averaging 46 more yards per game at home in 2022 entering Week 16. Vegas may try to trick you when Goff is on the road after coming off a massive home game but by using our tool, you won’t be fooled.
Goff has a 5-3 O-U record on his passing yard props at Ford Field this season. While his average line at home on DraftKings is 247 yards, his average result is 277.1 passing yards. Prior to throwing for 250+ yards against the Jets at the Meadowlands in Week 15, he was 2-3 on his passing yards props on the road. His average line on DraftKings on the road was only 10 yards fewer heading into Week 15 yet he averaged a full 50 fewer yards per game (227). This shows a clear pattern that he is much more successful at hitting the over and much more efficient when playing in front of his home crowd. There are countless examples of patterns you can spot using this brand-new prop tool that are even more eye-popping than Goff’s numbers.
How to Find Favorable Prop Bets
The key to placing informed bets is to place bets on clear patterns. Ideally, you want to see a player consistently going over or under. Grab a concise list of potential bets to place and compare to the lines at your favorite operator.
Let’s say you want to place a passing yards prop bet on Tom Brady. You check all the lines at your favorite operator (we suggest
Caesars or FanDuel) and need to put his line into context. How often does he go over? What outcomes occur against an easy matchup? What is his average result? How does he do at home versus on the road?
Using our exclusive Over-Under Rankings, you can utilize our premium filters to find out Brady’s historical prop record at home versus the road is even more volatile than Goff’s splits. (This is good and what we want to see.)
At home, Brady is averaging a whopping 307.3 passing yards and has hit the over in six of seven games heading into Week 15.
On the road, while his average line is only two yards fewer (271.2 to 269.2), he has a 1-5 O-U record and is only averaging 239 passing yards per game.
Fantasy SP has just highlighted a very promising prop bet whenever Brady is at home. Take the over. And when he is on the road, it’s a prime spot to smash the under.
Some players also tend to do much better when their team is the favorite such as running backs late in the fourth quarter when their team needs to kill time. Heading into Week 15, Dalvin Cook had a 7-2 O-U rushing yard record when his team was the favorite (79.9 yards per game). Conversely, when the Vikings were underdogs, he was 1-3 (57.8 yards per game). This is why filtering by favorite or underdog can be a critical data point to help you gain an edge at sportsbooks.
You can also filter by the last few games in case a player has begun to heat up or cool off. These filters will help you nail your bets in very specific scenarios. It’s the perfect tool for situational prop betting.
What the Experts Are Saying
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The dropdowns and filters on this tool are what really make this a game-changing feature. If you only want to see the most popular players on the page, simply slide the popularity to 75% or 100%. If you want to see players’ over-under records and their average results for only home games, simply click Home on the dropdown. If you want to see over-under records for players against teams in the bottom 5 at defending that position, simply click Bottom 5 under Position Rank. Not only can you get all of this insight, but the sliders and dropdowns all work interactively with a user-friendly interface so you can find out how a player is doing in a very specific situation. For example, let’s say Dak Prescott and the Cowboys are hosting the top-five San Francisco 49ers defense and are four-point underdogs. To get a much clearer picture of how Prescott has performed in similar situations, you can check off Home, Underdog, Indoor, and Top 5 under Opponent Rank to get his exact over-under prop historical record in this particular situation. If he is 0-3 on his passing yard prop in this scenario, you may want to smash the under.
NFL prop betting can be overwhelming but this tool makes it easy to research the best bets for novices and seasoned vets alike. Bettors should not be placing their prop bets before doing the necessary research. Now you can do all that research on one page with Fantasy SP’s Player Prop Over/Under Rankings Research Tool! It doesn’t get much better than that.
Stay tuned for our future article on even more in-depth tips and tricks.
France vs Argentina World Cup Final Betting Preview: Can Lionel Messi Capture That Elusive World Cup Title?
Picking up where they left off in 2018, the French National Team led by 23-year-old Kylian Mbappe have found their way back into the finals as they look to be the first back-to-back World Cup Champions since Brazil’s dominant runs in 1958 and 1962. Standing between that incredible feat for the defending champions is Argentina, who currently have their superstar, Lionel Messi, in top form. Messi is finding ways to create passes no one can see and he’s done it multiple times, assisting three goals (tied for the most) throughout the tournament. The legend is also scoring goals of his own and is tied with Kylian Mbappe (5 goals) for Golden Boot honors in this year’s World Cup. Regardless, soccer fans around the world are in for a treat on Sunday at 10:00 AM EST as two of the best players in the world face each other for their country’s World Cup glory.
After winning Group D, France defeated Poland in the Round of 16, England in the quarterfinals, and a strong Morocco team in the semis to advance to the Final. On the other side of the bracket, Argentina won Group C and dispatched Australia in the Round of 16. Messi and the Argentinians were then tested in the quarterfinals, needing a penalty shootout to defeat the Netherlands after blowing a late two-goal lead. Finally, Argentina played perhaps their best match of the tournament against Croatia in the semi-finals, winning 3-0. Now the stage is set for a blockbuster finale between two powerhouses featuring some of the top players in the world.
Note (from FanDuel Sportsbook): No team will play at home during Qatar's World Cup. For betting purposes, FanDuel explains that: “Home Team refers to the team listed first, Away Team refers to the second team listed.”
Argentina (-104) vs. France (-112)
Argentina Keys To Victory
Lionel Messi has played incredibly for Argentina throughout this World Cup. He is leaving opposing defenders in the dust, taking on multiple players at once, dragging them away from his teammates, which is opening up the field for his fellow goal scorers. Every time Messi has the ball at his feet, there seems to be more than one threat. Messi is playing just as well as he always has in 2022. He’s served his team as a playmaker and as a goal-scorer in Qatar. He’s also had some help from Manchester City forward Julian Alvarez who’s scored a handful of goals in this World Cup (including two in Argentina’s decisive victory over Croatia). If Alvarez and Messi are able to link up while on the attack, the depleted French defense and midfield could be in for some trouble.
France Keys To Victory
One of the biggest headlines heading into this World Cup Final is the return of French striker Karim Benzema. The Real Madrid star and winner of this year’s Ballon D’Or hurt his hamstring in one of France’s first practices soon after arriving in Qatar. He flew back to Madrid where he immediately completed his recovery work which was set at three weeks from the time of injury. Right now, Benzema is flying back to Doha and could be starting for France in the final. At the moment, France’s HC Didier Deschamps has declined to comment on whether or not he will be including KB9 in the starting lineup. France’s ball movement has been excellent throughout the tournament, but their key to victory against Argentina will be efficient defense. Over the last few games, France’s defense seems to have slowed down. Not only will they need to stop Messi, but they will need to turn defensive stops into counterattacks. Mbappe and Olivier Giroud (four goals thus far in the tournament) will need to be electric on offense and test the Argentinian keeper. Antoine Griezmann may be an x-factor for France as he has three assists in this World Cup and was inches away from scoring against Morocco.
It’s only fitting that Lionel Messi will finally hoist the World Cup trophy in his last World Cup match. Expect him to score a goal and lead his team to victory in a tightly contested battle.
The Pick: Argentina (-104)
World Cup Final Best Prop Bets
Kylian Mbappe: To Score Or Give Assist (+100)
Mbappé has been relatively quiet over France’s last few games. Still, he is the main wing on France’s team who is capable of breaking down defenses through his skillful technique and ridiculous speed. He currently is tied with Messi for the most goals in the 2022 World Cup. If he isn’t able to score in this game, then expect him to at least make an assist. For France to win this one, the 23-year-old will need to have a big game.
Lionel Messi: Anytime Goalscorer (+190)
Messi has stepped up his performance big time this World Cup. If you have watched Argentina play in this tournament, you know how crucial of a role Messi has played in the team’s success. He is tied for the most goals in the tournament with Mbappe and has a great chance of putting the ball in the net at some point during Sunday’s big match. This is a particularly great prop to target since Messi takes all of Argentina’s penalty shots and has converted four-of-five throughout the tournament.
Fantasy SP has worked diligently to bring you next-level sports betting analytics, prop betting tools, public betting splits, and so much more! Become an Edge+ member today!
Calling every sports fan across the globe! The best month for all things sports is here: December. NFL and CFB are getting into the thick of things — I mean, we are finally not seeing Alabama and Clemson in the CFP, not to mention both the NBA and NHL are underway and college basketball just tipped off!
Despite all of these different sporting events going on, the World’s biggest Sporting event is down to the Semifinals, the World Cup.
Although Soccer is the World's most popular sport, it still struggles to gain support in the US. However, every 4 years Soccer takes the country by storm and this year, and these last few games are going to be amazing.
Let us introduce you to your new go-to app, FanDuel Sportsbook. It’s the place to be for not only the usual sports, but for this year's World Cup!
FanDuel Sportsbook is providing a multitude of features with a few market differentiators.
- World Cup Winner
- Who will win the Golden Boot (the award for the top goal scorer of the World Cup)
- Highest scoring Group
- And more
- Popular Markets - outside of the normal Moneyline, Spread & Over/Under lines, FanDuel will also be offering:
- Anytime Goal Scorer
- First Goal Scorer
- Shots on Goal
- Correct Score
- Number of Corner Kicks
- Half-Time Result
- Tournament Goal Scorer Parlay Builder - build your own tournament-long Goal Scorer parlays with your favorite players from every team.
- Daily Specials:
- Highest scoring team of the day
- Total daily goals
- Player specials
- And More!
- Live Parlays
Out of all the betting apps we’ve used, signing up for FanDuel Sportsbook is also the easiest. Simply download the app and create an account by providing an email, credit card, and SS# — that’s to protect your winnings and ensure you're not a sporting professional.
FanDuel is undoubtedly the best site/app to parlay across multiple sports. It’s designed for bettors at any stage. The clear interface is ideal for beginners and you can make a bet in just a few clicks! It’s complete with a number of betting guides that explain the rules and resources to safely bet.
One of the best parts is that once the game ends, you can cash out your winnings right away. No minimum, no wait.
There’s also the incredible New User Offer: sign up with FanDuel Sportsbook and get up to $1000 in Free Bets if you lose your first bet!
Their app has everything you need — from tutorials to real-time game scores. Get amped for the World Cup with FanDuel Sportsbook. Enhance your Sportsember by downloading the FanDuel Sportsbook app today!