At this point in the season we know who the playoff contenders are, and each game becomes more important to determine who makes it in.
The Colts and Cardinals came away with wins that put them both tied for the lead in their respective divisions. With their Week 10 wins, the Buccaneers and Dolphins drew to within a one game striking distance for their divisions' top spot. The Bills, Ravens, Seahawks, Eagles, and Titans took losses giving up valuable ground for playoff positioning.
Drew Brees suffered fractured ribs and a collapsed lung in a win over the 49ers, and is expected to miss at least two weeks. Jameis Winston will fill in during Brees' absence and will have a great opportunity to raise his value in free agency by keeping the razor thin division lead the Saints have over Tom Brady and the Buccaneers.
Let's take a look at FindBet's Week 11 NFL Power Rankings based on what we've seen so far this season.
32. New York Jets (0-9, Last Week 32 +/- 0) - Trevor Lawrence seriously needs to consider going back to Clemson next year to avoid being a part of this train wreck under Adam Gase.
31. Jacksonville Jaguars (1-8, Last Week 31, +/- 0) - Have lost eight in a row and get the Steelers this week. They still have the Titans, Colts, Vikings, Browns, and Ravens on their schedule. Yikes.
30. Washington Football Team (2-7, Last Week 30, +/- 0) - Alex Smith threw for 390 yards in a close loss to Detroit. Smith's comeback has been a great story out of Washington after a preseason name change fiasco and a dud of a season.
What a journey it's been for Alex Smith. So inspiring 🙏 (h/t @FieldYates) https://t.co/JCaeXK4CtO— ESPN (@ESPN) 1605453142.0
29. Dallas Cowboys (2-7, Last Week 28, - 1) - Coming off their bye week the Cowboys get a tough matchup against the streaking Minnesota Vikings and Dalvin Cook. Their defense will be tested as Cook has run all over everyone he's faced this year.
28. Denver Broncos (3-6, Last Week 25, - 3) - Denver dropped their second game in a row in an embarrassing 37-12 loss that saw Drew Lock toss four interceptions. Jerry Jeudy has settled into the offense though, and should be a nice pairing with Courtland Sutton when he returns from injury next season.
27. Chicago Bears (5-5, Last Week 27, +/- 0) - Chicago has now lost four straight and is giving Minnesota the window they needed to make a move for second place in the NFC North. The Bears must have thought between Mitch Trubisky and Nick Foles that they had a starting quarterback, but over this stretch it's clear they need to be looking for other options in 2021.
26. New York Giants (3-7, Last Week 29, + 3) - The Giants enter their bye week riding a two game win streak. They'll get Cincinnati in Week 12, and have positioned themselves to unseat the Eagles for top spot in the NFC East. That's an accomplishment right?
Daniel Jones' 34-yard TD marks his third rush of 30+ yards this season. Just as many as Lamar Jackson 😮 https://t.co/KvT0wL40Hh— SportsCenter (@SportsCenter) 1605465367.0
25. Los Angeles Chargers (2-7, Last Week 23, - 2) - Another one score loss for Justin Herbert and the Chargers. With a banged up running back group, Kalen Ballage has been productive in the primary role.
24. Houston Texans (2-7, Last Week 22, - 2) - The Texans were smothered by the Cleveland defense with Deshaun Watson only being able to throw for 162 yards. Nick Chubb and Kareem Hunt ran the Houston defense into the ground as both went for over 100 yards rushing. We won't be seeing a return to the playoffs for this group in 2020.
23. Carolina Panthers (3-7, Last Week 21, - 2) - Now losers of five games in a row, the Panthers have played themselves out of contention in a division looking up at the Saints and Bucs. Christian McCaffrey will be out again this week and that doesn't bode well for a team struggling to get a win.
Panthers officially ruled out RB Christian McCaffrey for Sunday's game against Detroit.— Adam Schefter (@Adam Schefter) 1605722017.0
22. San Francisco 49ers (4-6, Last Week 20, - 2) - Even though they've dropped three straight, it's still impressive what this team has been able to do with all the injuries they've sustained. The NFC West is just too competitive this year and the 49ers have run out of tricks to keep their season afloat.
21. Cincinnati Bengals (2-6-1, Last Week 19, - 2) - The Bengals got beat up by the Steelers in Week 10, but they get Washington this week and have the Giants the following week. A couple of opportunities for Joe Burrow to put on a show.
20. Detroit Lions (4-5, Last Week 26, + 6) - The Vikings look like the more serious contenders, but Detroit gets Carolina, Houston, and Chicago over the next three weeks.
19. New England Patriots (4-5, Last Week 24, + 5) - Say what you will about the Patriots and Bill Belichick, but they've now won two straight and are just a game below .500. One thing we've learned over the past two decades is to never count out a Belichick coached Patriots team.
18. Philadelphia Eagles (3-5-1, Last Week 18, +/- 0) - They lost to the Giants in Week 10 which moved the G-Men into second place in the East behind Philly. It's anyone's division to win, but right now it's Philadelphia's to lose.
17. Atlanta Falcons (3-6, Last Week 16, - 1) - The Falcons are coming off their bye and get a gift from the football gods as they'll take on a Drew Brees-less Saints team in Week 11. Atlanta looks like they're getting on the right track under interim head coach Raheem Morris, and a win over New Orleans would give them a boost heading into the home stretch.
16. Los Angeles Rams (6-3, Last Week 17, + 1) - Okay L.A. you got your first good win beating the Seahawks last week. Even though Russell Wilson and Seattle are on a little slide and not playing their best football, it's a big win for the Rams.
15. Cleveland Browns (6-3, Last Week 14, - 1) - Nick Chubb ruined bettors' day running out of bounds at the end of the game instead of running it in for the touchdown. Anyone who had Cleveland laying four points, we feel for you here at FindBet.
Nick Chubb fantasy owners crying right now https://t.co/RtKWXutbdw— Barstool Sports (@Barstool Sports) 1605474806.0
14. Minnesota Vikings (4-5, Last Week 13, - 1) - Dalvin Cook had a pedestrian 112 total yards and no touchdowns in a win over Chicago. I guess we have been a little spoiled by his recent fantasy performances.
13. Indianapolis Colts (6-3, Last Week 15, + 2) - The Colts took the division lead with their victory over the Titans last week. They did it in convincing fashion and could run away with the AFC South if the Titans' recent run of play continues.
12. Tennessee Titans (6-3, Last Week 9, - 3) - No team is falling from grace faster than the Titans right now. They're 1-3 in their last four games and have the Ravens, a rematch with the Colts, and the Browns over the next three.
11. Las Vegas Raiders (6-3, Last Week 12, + 1) - Following the Raiders this season has been like a high school romance. Right now Vegas is on a three game winning streak and everything is looking great, but they get the Chiefs this week and the break up could get ugly.
10. Miami Dolphins (6-3, Last Week 11, + 1) - In Tua we trust. Now 3-0 as a starter and beginning to get it done with his arm as he had 2 TD passes last week outdueling Justin Herbert. Salvon Ahmed burst onto the scene with 85 yards and a TD.
AFC East point differential: 1. Miami Dolphins +69 2. Buffalo Bills +7 3. New England Patriots -28 4. New York Jet… https://t.co/3RSOxHdAo8— Adam Beasley (@Adam Beasley) 1605488162.0
9. Baltimore Ravens (6-3, Last Week 7, - 2) - Lamar Jackson was unable to lead his team to a game winning drive in the fourth quarter. Doubt has begun to set in on one of the preseason favorites to win it all. Cleveland is right on their heels and a Thanksgiving Day matchup with the Steelers is ahead of them.
8. Seattle Seahawks (6-3, Last Week 6, - 2) - It's hard to believe it but Seattle is on a two game slide and losers of three of their last four. Russell Wilson has looked human over the past couple weeks, and they're at the bottom of a three way tie for the NFC West division lead.
7. Buffalo Bills (7-3, Last Week 4, - 3) - It took a miracle Hail Mary to be beaten by Arizona in Week 10. The Bills have become one of the must-see teams in the NFL this year. Josh Allen has done it all for the Bills this season including catching a touchdown from Isaiah McKenzie against the Cardinals.
JOSH ALLEN IS WR1 😱 (via @NFL) https://t.co/9s7qgWJYt5— Bleacher Report (@Bleacher Report) 1605475419.0
6. Arizona Cardinals (6-3, Last Week 10, + 4) - Kyler Murray's Hail Mary to DeAndre Hopkins may have taken the lead for play of the year in the NFL. A great game overall was capped off by one of the most exciting plays in sports. The Cardinals are looking more and more like a Super Bowl contender rather than just a playoff contender.
Hail Murray on repeat. @K1 @DeAndreHopkins (by @WilsonFootball) https://t.co/MUuskOjaat— NFL (@NFL) 1605749426.0
5. Tampa Bay Buccaneers (7-3, Last Week 8, + 3) - That's more like it. Antonio Brown, Chris Godwin, and Mike Evans all had at least six catches and Ronald Jones had a 98 yard touchdown run. Tampa Bay cruised to a win over Carolina in Week 10.
RONALD JONES GOES 98 YARDS! @rojo | #GoBucs 📺: #TBvsCAR on FOX 📱: NFL app // Yahoo Sports app: … https://t.co/vKrV2Pmpt9— NFL (@NFL) 1605470781.0
4. New Orleans Saints (7-2, Last Week 5, + 1) - The Saints beat the 49ers last week but lost Drew Brees for at least this week. The good news for them is that they have Jameis Winston to step in while Brees recovers which should give them a shot at maintaining their slim division lead over the Bucs.
3. Green Bay Packers (7-2, Last Week 3, +/- 0) - The running game was ineffective in Week 10 but Aaron Rodgers willed them to victory over the Jags throwing for 325 yards and two touchdowns. Packers take on the Colts this week in a matchup of division leaders.
2. Kansas City Chiefs (8-1, Last Week 2, +/- 0) - The Chiefs are coming off their bye and get a chance to avenge their only loss on the season as they get a rematch with the Las Vegas Raiders. Patrick Mahomes has been spreading the ball around to all of the weapons in his offensive arsenal which has made defending Kansas City nearly impossible.
1. Pittsburgh Steelers (9-0, Last Week 1, +/- 0) - Playing in the AFC North guarantees Pittsburgh some difficult games left on the schedule, but the Steelers have never been intimidated by a challenge. They have won close games, shown the ability to overcome deficits to win, and the defense is elite. Until someone can put a number in their loss column the top spot is theirs.
After three consecutive victories, the Golden State Warriors conceded Game 4 of the Western Conference Finals to the Dallas Mavericks. In Game 5, the Warriors will look to close out Luka Doncic and the Mavs in front of the home crowd. As a team, the Warriors were efficient from the field, converting 48.8% of their shots taken. One of the main reasons Golden State lost was a result of poor free-throw shooting. The Warriors missed nine of their 27 free throws on Tuesday night (65.4 FT%). In comparison, the Mavericks were full-throttle in Game 4 facing elimination. Dallas’ Reggie Bullock (18 PTS) and Dorian Finney Smith (23 PTS) combined for 42 points, adding to Luka’s 30.
Ultimately, no team has ever come back from a 3-0 lead in the playoffs, meaning that the Warriors will almost certainly be heading back to the NBA Finals. Let’s take a look at what the best bets are for tonight’s Game 5.
Please note that all odds and lines are from FanDuel Sportsbook and were accurate at 2:00 PM EST. Be sure to check for line movement or odd changes.
Best Bets of the Night
Game: Dallas Mavericks at Golden State Warriors -6.5 (GSW Leads 3-1)
Bet #1: Dallas Mavericks, +6.5 (-110)
We like Dallas to keep it close. Perhaps Dallas has a 10-point lead going into the third quarter which the Warriors could then overtake in the second half. Regardless of the scenario, the Mavericks won against a Warriors team that still put up 109 points in Game 4 on close to 50% shooting from the field. Dallas shot above 50% from the field in Game 4 and took many shots to get there just like they did in Game 7 of the Western Conference Semis against the Phoenix Suns. Even Jalen Brunson said in the post-game interview with the guys from Inside the NBA that his team needs to "take it one game at a time (...) like four Game 7s."
While the Warriors are in it to win it tonight, the Mavericks seem to perform best when facing elimination this 2022 postseason. While they might lose tonight, the Mavericks seem to play well under pressure. As a result, take them +7 tonight as the Warriors will have a bigger challenge on their hands than they anticipate.
Bet #2: Over 215.5 Total Points (-110)
In two of the series’ four games, both teams combined for at least 220 points. In Game 2, 243 points were scored while in Game 4, there were 228 points tallied. The Mavericks shoot more when facing elimination. This has been a trend we have seen throughout the postseason. In Game 7 of the Western Conference Semis, the Mavericks scored 123 points while in Game 4 against the Warriors on Tuesday, Dallas scored 119 points. Not much more needs to be said about the Warriors’ high-power offense that will likely outscore Dallas regardless of how many points they get on the board.
NBA Player Props of the Night
Game: Dallas Mavericks at Golden State Warriors -6.5 (GSW Leads 3-1)
Prop #1: Dorian Finney-Smith Over 11.5 Points
Dorian Finney-Smith erupted for 23 points in Game 4 to help the Mavericks rally past the Warriors. Throughout the 2022 playoffs, he’s averaged 11.6 PPG shooting 46.5% from the field. He’s also seeing 38.2 minutes per contest this postseason. Expect Finney-Smith to score at least 12 points tonight after his 23-points in Game 4.
Prop #2: Klay Thompson Over 18.5 Points
Klay Thompson was held to 12 points scored in Game 4. Despite going 5-of-10 from the field, Klay was limited by Dallas on defense in 28 minutes on the floor on Tuesday night. He should definitely be taking more shots tonight and perform better overall being back home for a Game 5. Thompson should easily hit at least 20+ points tonight, and take a handful more shots from the field in this contest than in Tuesday’s.
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In Game 3 of the Eastern Conference Finals, Bam Adebayo's 31-point and 10-rebound double-double led the Miami Heat to a 109-103 victory over the Celtics on the road. That was followed by a dominant second-half performance by Stephen Curry and Andrew Wiggins who led the Warriors to a 3-0 lead in the Western Conference Finals.
Tonight, we'll get the first of these two matchups. Boston will look to come back in their second home game against a Heat team that is clearly not at 100% healthy. Tyler Herro has been ruled out for Game 4 while Kyle Lowry remains questionable. Here are some of the best bets for tonight's and tomorrow's big Game 4s.
Please note that all odds and lines are from FanDuel Sportsbook and were accurate at 3:30 PM EST. Be sure to check for line movement or odd changes.
ECF Game 4: Miami Heat at Boston Celtics -7 (MIA Leads 2-1)
In Game 4, the Celtics rallied back from double-digits to make things interesting in the fourth quarter. However, Boston conceded Game 3 to the Miami Heat 109-103. On Sunday, Bam Adebayo was getting everything he wanted down low. He finished with 31 points, 10 boards, six assists, four steals, and one block. Ime Udoka will need to boost the presence of his big men down low, perhaps by extending Daniel Theis’ minutes or having him share the floor more with Al Horford. The major reason for which the Heat are considered the seven-point underdogs for tonight’s game is injuries. Tyler Herro has already been ruled out for Game 4, and the Heat have four or five other players in their lineup currently listed as questionable. This includes Max Struss, Kyle Lowry, Jimmy Butler, and P.J. Tucker. Butler is dealing with knee inflammation which sidelined him for the second half of Game 3.
Even if all of the players in the Heat’s rotation are good to go tonight (outside of Herro), Boston has not lost back-to-back home games since late October. Plus, Jaylen Brown is shooting much better than he did earlier in the postseason. In fact, he’s elevated his shooting to 50% from the field through the 2021-22 playoffs through 14 games played. Expect Boston to bounce back big in Game 4, with multiple players on the Miami Heat not at full strength.
The Pick: Boston Celtics -7 (-110)
WCF Game 4: Golden State Warriors at Dallas Mavericks -1 (GSW Leads 3-0)
Well, it’s looking like the Golden State Warriors are returning to the NBA Finals. With the emergence of Jordan Poole late this season and into the postseason, Andrew Wiggins’ First-Team All-Star season, and Klay Thompson’s return to basketball, Golden State has been simply phenomenal. Golden State is simply that good this year, with anyone on the team capable of stepping up. Stephen Curry erupted in Game 3, while it was Andrew Wiggins that caught fire in the second half of Game 4. Any given night, the Warriors have one or two guys who they can count on for scoring approximately 25+ points. Considering the Mavericks' struggles this round, particularly behind the three-point line, bettors should go with the Warriors as the slight underdog. Teams get swept sometimes. Just ask the Brooklyn Nets. The Warriors will bring out the brooms and sweep the Mavericks as they punch their ticket to the NBA Finals Tuesday night.
The Pick: Golden State Warriors ML -104
NBA Player Props
Golden State Warriors at Dallas Mavericks -1 (GSW Leads 3-0)
Prop #1: Stephen Curry, Over 27.5 Points
Stephen Curry has scored 31 points and 32 points over the last two games. He’s done so by converting at least 50% from the field in each contest. It makes sense that he would score at least 28 points in a series-clinching victory tomorrow night. Curry is averaging 27.1 PPG on 45.9% this postseason but has certainly put up more points and done so more efficiently over the last few games.
Prop #2: Luka Doncic, Over 3.5 Threes
Luka has drained nine three-pointers over the last two games. He’s knocked down at least four threes in three of his last four contests. Facing elimination and hoping to not let down the home crowd in back-to-back home playoff games, Doncic will convert at least four baskets from downtown in Game 4.
Jimmy Butler, Tyler Herro, Bam Adebayo, and the Miami Heat held their own against the Celtics in Game 1 of the Eastern Conference Finals. Likewise, Andrew Wiggins and Stephen Curry led the Warriors to a 112-87 blowout over Luka Doncic and the Dallas Mavericks. Tonight, the Celtics play their second game on the road against the Heat. On Friday night, the Mavericks will look to bounce back after shooting horrifically in Game 1.
Let’s take a look at the best bets for the two NBA Conference Final Game 2 matchups set for 8:30 PM EST. tonight and 9:00 PM EST. tomorrow night.
Please note that all odds and lines are from FanDuel Sportsbook and were accurate at 4:30 PM EST. Be sure to check for line movement or odd changes.
Best Bets of the Night
Game: Boston Celtics at Miami Heat -2 (MIA Leads 1-0)
After a nail-biting series with the Milwaukee Bucks that the Celtics won in grandiose fashion, Boston conceded Game 1 of the Eastern Conference Finals to the Miami Heat. Tonight, they play Game 2 of the series at the FTX Arena and hope to bounce back from Tuesday’s 11-point loss. One of the principal reasons for their defeat in Game 1 was the absence of Marcus Smart (foot sprain) and Al Horford (health & safety protocols). It remained a relatively close game until the third quarter in which the Celtics were outscored 14-3 to begin the second half. Derrick White filled in for Marcus Smart and was terribly inefficient from the field. He scored three points (1-4 FG) and had four assists in 29 minutes filling in for the Defensive Player of the Year. In contrast, Max Struss and Gabe Vincent did a terrific job of filling in for Kyle Lowry, combining for 28 points on 9-of-19 shooting. In addition, Tyler Herro had a good night with a pivotal 18 points (7-15 FG) off the bench. Fortunately for the Celtics, both Smart and Horford are expected to return tonight.
Head Coach Ime Udoka indicated to reporters today that Smart was probable to play this evening. Horford was cleared of health and safety protocols today making him available for tonight’s contest. For those of you who have watched the Celtics this postseason, Horford and Smart have upped their play and have been absolutely integral to the team’s success. Tonight, let’s take the Boston Celtics to take a game on the road in the same fashion that they took two road games from the Bucks in the last series.
The Pick: Boston Celtics ML +108
Tonight's Best NBA Player Props
Game: Boston Celtics at Miami Heat -2 (MIA Leads 1-0)
Prop#1: Gabe Vincent Over 9.5 Points
Prop#2: Al Horford Over 9.5 Points
Tomorrow Night's Best NBA Bet
Game: Dallas Mavericks at Golden State -6 (GSW Leads 1-0)
Dallas was annihilated by Golden State in Game 1 of the Western Conference Finals. This comes after the Mavs blew out the Phoenix Suns on the road in impressive fashion, punching their ticket to the next round of the playoffs for a series against the Warriors. Golden State shot an impressive 56.1% from the field in the opening game and finished with 112 points. Just as important as the offensive production, Golden State clamped down on defense. The Warriors contained Luka Doncic, who converted just six of his 18 field goals on his way to 20 points. Andrew Wiggins did an excellent job guarding the young playmaker. Luka's teammates didn't help out much either as the Mavericks shot 36% from the field in Game 1, and 22.9% from downtown (11-48 3PT FG) for just 87 points on the night.
While I think the Warriors will win again on Friday night, expect the Mavericks to keep things more interesting after such an abysmal night shooting from the field. Dallas will make the adjustments needed to make this a competitive Game 2 in the Bay area.