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Our weekly look at every NFL game on the schedule for Sunday and Monday and some advice on which match ups to target and what match ups to avoid.

Week 1 of the NFL season is one of the harder weeks to bet on in the NFL as you're largely going off of past performance and projecting how each team's off season moves will impact them on the field before having a few games to draw more concrete conclusions. This year, with the preseason cancelled due to COVID-19, the first week's outcomes could differ wildly. I think this is why we are seeing quite a few games within 3 point spreads in week 1. Our lines are pulled right from FanDuel's Sports book. Let's take a look at Week 1's match ups.

We also have some prop bets we've talked about earlier in the summer, check those out and get some money in before the season starts.


Chicago Bears @ Detroit Lions (-2.5) O/U 42.5

I like the Lions this week at -2.5 and I would hit the under this week with points set at 42.5 The Bears won't have a healthy David Montgomery this week and with Mitchell Trubisky starting at QB, the Bears offense doesn't inspire much confidence. The Lions could be without Kenny Golladay this week, but Matthew Stafford and the rest of that offense should be enough to overcome any fight with the Bears defense.

Pick: Lions to cover and the under.

Cleveland Browns @ Baltimore Ravens (-7.5) O/U 47.5

Cleveland will be an improved and more disciplined club this year, but are down both starting corner backs and a starting safety going into the first week of the year. The Ravens added firepower on offense with JK Dobbins and Devin Duvernay along with the return of an elite defense, all adds up to a game that looks to get out of hand early.

Pick: Ravens and the under

Green Bay Packers @ Minnesota Vikings (-2.5) O/U 44.5

Packers and Vikings are one of the better games on the schedule this week. The Vikings have an excellent defense, but Danielle Hunter looks to be out and that is a big blow in trying to slow down the Green Bay offense. The Vikings offense should be able to move the ball against the Packers defense. I think that leads to a higher scoring game this week with the Packers squeaking out a tough road win.

Pick: Packers to cover and the over

Indianapolis Colts (-8.5) @ Jacksonville Jaguars O/U 45.5

Colts get the "tanking" Jaguars to start the year and should have no issue covering their 8.5 points this week. Indianapolis boasts an offense that should be able to take advantage of garbage time this week, which allows me to be comfortable taking the over.

Pick: Colts and the over

Teddy Bridgewater's Panthers have a good shot at upsetting the Raiders at home this week.panthers.com


Las Vegas Raiders (-3) @ Carolina Panthers O/U 47.5

Raiders head across the country for a 1:00 game at the Panthers and are still favored by 3. I think the books are sleeping a bit on the Panthers this year, and with very little tape on the Panthers new-look offense paired with a below average Raiders defense is the perfect recipe for a Week 1 "upset." I think it will be a lower scoring affair as well so the under is more appealing this week.

Pick: Panthers and the under

Miami Dolphins @ New England Patriots (-7) O/U 41.5

Miami heads into New England to start the year in a very intriguing match up. Cam Newton is now the Patriots new starting QB but a lack of talent at WR could hold this offense back. I think this will be a low scoring affair based on a revamped Miami defense and a brand new Patriots offense. I like Miami to cover here and also will take the under.

Pick: Miami to cover and the under

New York Jets @ Buffalo Bills (-6.5) O/U 39.5

The Jets don't have Jamal Adams or CJ Mosley on defense and the Bills went out and got Stefon Diggs to pair with John Brown and Cole Beasley at WR. I think the Bills easily cover the 6.5 spread this week and I am hammering this over. I think the Bills offense will be better and the Jets will get a couple of garbage touchdowns to push this one past 40 total points.

Pick: Bills and the over

Philadelphia Eagles (-5.5) @ Washington Football Team O/U 42.5

The Eagles head into this week down three of their five offensive lineman. They'll face off against one of the best defensive lines in the NFC in Washington. It will be tough to move the ball this week for both teams and with rain in the forecast for the game Sunday, this could be a low scoring match up. I like Washington to cover in this one.

Pick: Washington to cover and the under

Seattle Seahawks (-2.5) @ Atlanta Falcons O/U 48.5

The Seahawks get a slight edge here from the book even while making the cross country trip. Atlanta has a lot of firepower on offense which could put pressure on the Seattle defense, but I think this game will just finish under this week with Seattle's defense doing just enough to slow Atlanta down.

Pick: Seahawks and the under

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Los Angeles Chargers (-3) @ Cincinnati Bengals O/U 41.5

Another west coast team playing on the east coast at 1:00 being favored. The Chargers have Tyrod Taylor as their new starting QB and have lost defensive star Derwin James for the year with a torn meniscus. Joe Burrow has looked very good, and with a less than 100% Chargers defense coming cross country for an early game, the Bengals are in a good position to steal a week 1 victory.

Pick: Bengals to cover and the over

Arizona Cardinals @ San Francisco 49ers (-6.5) O/U 48.5

A potentially high scoring match up on paper, but the 49ers defense returns intact from an excellent 2019 campaign. Continuity is key here, and even though Arizona added improvements on both sides of the ball, the 49ers are just too good right now for this to be less than a one score game.

Pick: 49ers and the under.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers @ New Orleans Saints (-3.5) 47.5

I think this will be one of the highest scoring match ups this week. Even with some injuries affecting the Buccaneers on offense this week, Tom Brady should be in for a duel with Drew Brees. The Chiefs-Texans game hit their over in a very nerve racking fashion on Thursday night, but the weather won't play a factor here like it did in that game. Saints win a close one but I think the Bucs will cover here.

Pick: Buccaneers to cover and the over

Dak Prescott looks to get the Cowboys in the win column in Week 1Getty Images


Dallas Cowboys (-2.5) @ Los Angeles Rams O/U 51.5

The Cowboys return an offense almost completely intact from a year ago, and with the addition of CeeDee Lamb and Dak Prescott playing on a one year deal, the Cowboys offense will be scoring points in bundles. The Rams are a bit harder to read, cutting Todd Gurley in the off season and regressed in 2019. I think 51.5 total points is a bit generous, especially in Week 1.

Pick: Cowboys and the under

Pittsburgh Steelers (-5.5) @ New York Giants O/U 45.5

This match up seems to be priced just right from a total points perspective, but I think the Steelers win this by at least 7 points this week. The Giants will stay in the game and I think will get a touchdown late at the end to just push this past the 45 points.

Pick: Steelers and the over

Tennessee Titans (-3) @ Denver Broncos O/U 40.5

Denver just lost Von Miller for the year and also will possibly be without Courtland Sutton this week against the visiting Titans. I am hesitant to put a lot of faith in the Titans until I can see Ryan Tannehill pick up where he left off in last year's post season. I think this is going to be a low scoring, defensive battle in the final game of the week.

Pick: Titans and the under.


Parlay me this, Batman!

Each week I'll stick my neck out there and give you a parlay to put together.

My parlay I'm playing this week is this: Bills (-6.5), Steelers (-5.5) and Bengals (+3)

Good luck out there this week and enjoy the NFL finally being back and bringing a sense of normalcy to our lives!

File:Justin Herbert (51459803577) (cropped).jpg - Wikimedia Commons

It's another eventful week in the NFL.

Four teams -- the Jets, Falcons, Saints, and 49ers -- are the first teams to get a bye week. After Tom Brady and the Tampa Bay Buccaneers narrowly escaped Thursday Night Football with a 28-22 victory over the Philadelphia Eagles, the reigning Super Bowl champs are the first team with five wins in the league. Who will join them on Sunday? We know that we'll get at least a second five-win team since the 4-1 Ravens are hosting the 4-1 Chargers. That is going to be an epic battle, so let's start with that clash of AFC contenders. Welcome to our Week 6 NFL Best Bets.

Los Angeles Chargers (+3.5) at Baltimore Ravens

Playing on the road is a difficult task for any team, but if any team can escape with a victory, it's Justin Herbert and the Chargers. This isn't the Chargers of the last decade. This team is winning the close battles. Herbert is playing at an MVP level this season and already has led this team to big-time wins over the Kansas City Chiefs and Cleveland Browns -- two of the top teams in the AFC. This L.A. team is deep at the skill positions, can rush the passer, has an improved offensive line and a great young coach. What's not to like?

All that said, Lamar Jackson seems to be playing as he did during his 2019 MVP campaign. Not to mention, Marquise "Hollywood" Brown is actually catching passes. He eclipsed 100 yards last week and scored two touchdowns (including the game-winning catch in overtime). Simply put, this is a tough team to bet against. It did take last-second heroics for the Ravens to beat the winless Lions and a pretty pedestrian Colts team. Overall, Baltimore hasn't faced a test like this yet this season. Take the points and the better overall squad. Chargers may win this game, but if they don't, they are not going to lose by more than a field goal.

PICK: Chargers +3.5

Kansas City Chiefs (-6.5) at Washington Football Team

It's been a tough start to the season for the Chiefs. They had great odds to return to the Super Bowl and are now last in the AFC West heading into Week 16 with a 2-3 record. They desperately need this game. This is a great opportunity for the Chiefs to prove they are still elite by defeating a team that made the postseason last year on the road. The Chiefs are going to turn it around against a Washington defense that is allowing the sixth-most passing yards and second-most passing touchdowns this season. Patrick Mahomes is going to blow up. Tyreek Hill is going to dominate. Travis Kelce is going to continue to provide a steady source of receptions down the middle of the field. As long as the Chiefs' offensive line holds against Chase Young, it's going to be a long day for Washington's defense. Betting on Mahomes to right the ship isn't a really difficult choice.

PICK: Chiefs -6.5

Houston Texans (+9) at Indianapolis Colts

Yes, the Texans are one of the worst teams in the league. Betting on them on the road against a divisional rival might seem crazy at first. However, the Texans are 7-3 against the spread as underdogs in their last 10 games. Plus, the Colts are emotional after completely giving away the game against the Ravens in which they blew a 22-3 lead late in the game. This is going to cause a bit of a hangover in that locker room. When New England suffered a terrible loss against Tom Brady and the Bucs, the Texans managed to cover the spread the following week. Look for history to repeat itself. Texans coach David Culley has Houston playing hard in spite of its lack of talent and quarterback Davis Mills appeared to take a step forward last week against the Pats. Houston has played pretty good pass defense, too. The Texans have allowed only seven passing TDs this season.

PICK: Texans +9

Seattle Seahawks at Pittsburgh Steelers (-5)

Sunday night will be an interesting matchup to watch as Geno Smith will make his first start in four years as the Seahawks travel to Pittsburgh to take on the Steelers. I hate betting on Ben Roethlisberger, but it's hard to envision the Seahawks covering the spread without the services of Russell Wilson. And as much as I think Big Ben should hang up his cleats, you have to give him credit for the way he dominated a solid Broncos defense last week. Roethlisberger looked better than he did earlier in the season and was able to get the ball to his playmakers -- Diontae Johnson, Chase Claypool, and running back Najee Harris. Seattle's defense is one of the worst in the league and their secondary is even worse than their front seven. Look for the Steelers to light up Seattle in the passing game.

PICK: Steelers -5

Arizona Cardinals at Cleveland Browns OVER 49.5

Both of these offenses can put up a lot of points, though they go about it very differently. The Browns are a run-heavy team, and even though they will be without the services of Nick Chubb, Kareem Hunt is more than capable of getting the job done. Meanwhile, Arizona's offense runs through electric quarterback Kyler Murray. Murray is able to move the chains with his legs but he isn't afraid to toss the ball either. He loves getting his guys involved and his weapons are elite in DeAndre Hopkins, Rondale Moore, and Christian Kirk.

The Browns are coming off an 89-point slugest with the Chargers and hit the OVER in their other game against a high-end offense in a 33-29 loss to the Chiefs. Meanwhile, the Cardinals have scored 30-plus points in four of five games this year. Smash the OVER.

PICK: OVER 49.5

Detroit Lions v Green Bay Packers
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Week 2 of the NFL was full of breakout performances, thrilling finishes and potentially the start of the Justin Fields era in the NFC North as the Bears' win over the Bengals finds them in first place in the division.

We cap off the week with a Monday Night Football showdown between the Packers and the Lions with the winner finding themselves tied for first in the North. The Packers put up an absolute dud of a performance last week against the Saints in Week 1 while the Lions looked surprisingly effective while playing catch-up against the West-leading 49ers. The expectations for these two teams couldn't have been further apart coming into the season but with matching 0-1 starts on the books, I think there are a couple of interesting props and roster construction angles to exploit.

NFL DFS Showdown Picks

*Prices are from DraftKings

Captain: TE T.J. Hockenson, Detroit Lions ($9,600) ($14,400)

I'm normally not a fan of playing a tight end in the captain spot, but T.J. Hockenson is not your average tight end. He finished 2020 with an elite 18% target share in the Lions' offense and picked up right where he left off in Week 1, finishing with an 18.2% share on 50 routes run last week. Hockenson has always carried premium TD upside as a red-zone target but what was most encouraging about last week was that he ran nearly 55% of his routes out of the slot, leaving him a matchup against Chandon Sullivan, who's allowing a 67% catch rate in his coverage. In a game where the Lions are projected to be down early, expect Hockenson to get fed once again. His red-zone utilization gives him enough juice to take the captain's chair in my builds.

Core Consideration: QB Jared Goff, Detroit Lions ($10,000)

Two principles I take into Showdown slates apply to this play. Generally speaking, if I have a pass-catcher as my captain, I'm finding a way to get their QB into a flex spot. The second is that your build needs to tell a story. Mine is that the Packers come out with something to prove after getting embarrassed in Week 1 and that we'll likely see upwards of 50 pass attempts from Jared Goff as he attempts to mount a comeback. Goff is a surprisingly effective passer when getting good protection and this unit gave him a clean pocket on 86.7% of snaps last week. Expect that to continue tonight as Goff will continue to feast in garbage time.

Contrarian Play: WR Randall Cobb, Green Bay Packers ($2,000)

I still chuckle at the thought of the return of Randall Cobb being on the short-list of demands from Aaron Rodgers in the midst of his holdout. I do, however, think there is something to be said about the importance of chemistry between a quarterback and his receiver and I expect that in a typical game (which Week 1 was not), Aaron Rodgers is going to find his spots to get Cobb involved. In a game script that figures to have the Packers up by a healthy margin, not many are going to look at the tertiary passing options for Green Bay and I think a $2,000 Randall Cobb could sneak in a handful of receptions at single-digit ownership..

Salary Relief: WR Amon-Ra St. Brown, Detroit Lions ($2,400)

This one fits perfectly into my narrative for the game as well. In a game where the Lions are likely to flirt with 50+ pass attempts and coming off a week where St. Brown ran routes on 75% of the team's passing plays, I will be overweight on Amon-Ra tonight. Lining up in the slot on 74.5% of plays means St. Brown will primarily see coverage from Chandon Sullivan, the most favorable of the options GB lines up in their defensive secondary. Expect St. Brown to see his target volume increase tonight. If Detroit can be more effective in getting to the red zone, he carries decent scoring upside with the way he's utilized in this offense. Plus, who doesn't love the extra motivation of playing against their big bro?

Monday Night Football Best Bets

Taking a look at the wagering side of this game; before we determine anything else we must ask ourselves what we think of these Green Bay Packers. I tend to look at last week's performance as the exception and not the rule. With that being the case, I am laying the 11.5 points and taking GB tonight. Over the past six seasons, oddsmakers have been fairly sharp when it comes to these larger spreads and NFL teams cover double-digit spreads more than 55% of the time. The total for tonight is sitting at 48.5 and given the somewhat surprising ability of the Lions to make up ground last week, I am confidently on the "over" side of that line.

Picks: Packers -11.5, OVER 48.5 points

Taking a look at the prop market, I am again mainly investing in the "GB Blowout" narrative:

D'Andre Swift: OVER 28.5 Receiving Yard

Coming off a 65-yard performance in a very similar game script, this one feels like a no-brainer. Swift averages nearly 8 yards per reception so this really boils down to whether you think he catches more than 3 passes. I certainly do and I'm confidently on the OVER for this prop. FanDuel is currently carrying the best odds at -110.

T.J. Hockenson: Anytime TD

I'm not the biggest fan of these "to score" props, but I'll break from the norm with this one. I am projecting the Lions to at least have a go at it in this game and there simply isn't a scenario where that doesn't involve a score for Hockenson. +220 odds at FanDuel sort of feels like stealing given that I see this game going over the 48.5 total.

AJ Dillon | UNDER 8.5 Rushing Attempts

I know that the betting public is forecasting a fairly comfortable win for the Packers, but let's not get carried away. AJ Dillon would have to nearly double his career average for carries to get to this number. Plus, it's a bit unlikely that this game gets so far out of reach that Green Bay brings in their backups. Even last week when they did bring in the second-stringers, Dillon only saw 4 carries. I'm expecting Aaron Jones to have a monster day on the ground, as evidenced by my Saturday article.

File:Derrick Henry 2019 12-08.jpg - Wikimedia Commons

Week 1 is in the books and it's time to move on to the best bets in Week 2.

If you listened to my article earlier this week, you would have started 1-0 for taking the Giants with the points against Washington in that thriller of a matchup Thursday night. Now, let's dive into Week 2's best NFL bets.

Best Bets

Tennessee Titans/Seattle Seahawks Over 54

The Seahawks' offense was high-flying in the first half last week. Because the Colts never really threatened the outcome of the game, the Seahawks were able to take the air out of the ball and finish the game with an easy win while only scoring seven in the second half. While both the Titans' defense and offense looked atrocious, expect Ryan Tannehill and Derrick Henry to have big bounce-back weeks and make this an epic high-scoring game. This has all the makings for a shootout in which both teams put up 30-plus points.

Cincinnati Bengals +2.5 @ Chicago Bears

Until that Monday night game, the Bengals had the honor of winning the craziest Week 1 game over the Vikings in overtime. The Bears' defense, which is supposed to be their strength, looked awful against the Rams, including one of the most blown coverages you'll ever see on Cooper Kupp's long touchdown. It was simply an awful week for the Bears. I don't think it gets any better until they remove Dalton and promote Justin Fields. If they don't do that prior to game time, the Bengals will run away with this one.

Los Angeles Rams -3.5 @ Indianapolis Colts

Coming out of Week 1 the Rams looked great on both sides of the ball. Matthew Stafford had a great first game, going 20 for 26 with three touchdowns. The Colts... They didn't look that great on either side of the ball. While Carson Wentz's overall numbers didn't look bad, most of the yardage and one of his two TDs came in the fourth quarter as they were chasing from two or more scores back, never actually threatening to win the game. I'm leaning towards the Rams winning this in a blowout and would consider alternate spreads.

Arizona Cardinals -3.5 vs. Minnesota Vikings

Kyler Murray appears to be a man on a mission to avenge last season's bitter ending after absolutely torching the Tennesee Titans in Nashville. The Vikings' defense, who hasn't been as formidable as years past, is going to have their hands full with Kyler. Last week they allowed Joe Burrow to complete nearly 80% of his passes, and Burrow isn't a threat to run nor has a receiver as talented as DeAndre Hopkins. If the Vikings offense doesn't step up and make this a shootout, things could get ugly in Phoenix.

Dallas Cowboys + 3.5 @ Los Angeles Chargers

Dak Prescott looked great in Week 1 and if there were any issues with his shoulder after throwing 58 times, he had 10 days to get healed up again and ready for the Chargers. I can almost guarantee, whenever the Cowboys go to play either Los Angeles team in their stadium, that there will be more Cowboys fans than LA fans. So while they aren't playing in Jerry World, they'll have more fan support. My concern for Justin Herbert and the Chargers is their efficiency in the red zone. His most potent weapons in Keenan Allen and Austin Ekeler become less effective as they get closer to the goal line. That leaves Jared Cook and Mike Williams as your bigger bodies in the red zone, which isn't ideal. The Cowboys have a decent chance to win this one outright, but you can take the points for some cushion.

Long-Shot Parlay

  • Cowboys ML (+160)
  • Titans +6.5 (-105)
  • Steelers ML (-225)
  • Rams -3.5 (-110)

Five Props To Consider

  • Calvin Ridley OVER 6.5 receptions (+115)
  • Tyrod Taylor OVER 34.5 Pass Attempts (-105)
  • Aaron Jones OVER 88.5 combined yards (-115)
  • Nick Chubb OVER 17.5 carries (-120)
  • James Robinson OVER 9.5 carries (-125)

All five of these props have an excellent chance at hitting. I like the idea of wagering a three-leg prop parlay with the last three props listed (Jones, Chubb and J-Rob). Thanks me on Monday.

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