NFL Betting Preview - Week 1

Photo by Mitchell Leff/Getty Images

Our weekly look at every NFL game on the schedule for Sunday and Monday and some advice on which match ups to target and what match ups to avoid.

Week 1 of the NFL season is one of the harder weeks to bet on in the NFL as you're largely going off of past performance and projecting how each team's off season moves will impact them on the field before having a few games to draw more concrete conclusions. This year, with the preseason cancelled due to COVID-19, the first week's outcomes could differ wildly. I think this is why we are seeing quite a few games within 3 point spreads in week 1. Our lines are pulled right from FanDuel's Sports book. Let's take a look at Week 1's match ups.

We also have some prop bets we've talked about earlier in the summer, check those out and get some money in before the season starts.


Chicago Bears @ Detroit Lions (-2.5) O/U 42.5

I like the Lions this week at -2.5 and I would hit the under this week with points set at 42.5 The Bears won't have a healthy David Montgomery this week and with Mitchell Trubisky starting at QB, the Bears offense doesn't inspire much confidence. The Lions could be without Kenny Golladay this week, but Matthew Stafford and the rest of that offense should be enough to overcome any fight with the Bears defense.

Pick: Lions to cover and the under.

Cleveland Browns @ Baltimore Ravens (-7.5) O/U 47.5

Cleveland will be an improved and more disciplined club this year, but are down both starting corner backs and a starting safety going into the first week of the year. The Ravens added firepower on offense with JK Dobbins and Devin Duvernay along with the return of an elite defense, all adds up to a game that looks to get out of hand early.

Pick: Ravens and the under

Green Bay Packers @ Minnesota Vikings (-2.5) O/U 44.5

Packers and Vikings are one of the better games on the schedule this week. The Vikings have an excellent defense, but Danielle Hunter looks to be out and that is a big blow in trying to slow down the Green Bay offense. The Vikings offense should be able to move the ball against the Packers defense. I think that leads to a higher scoring game this week with the Packers squeaking out a tough road win.

Pick: Packers to cover and the over

Indianapolis Colts (-8.5) @ Jacksonville Jaguars O/U 45.5

Colts get the "tanking" Jaguars to start the year and should have no issue covering their 8.5 points this week. Indianapolis boasts an offense that should be able to take advantage of garbage time this week, which allows me to be comfortable taking the over.

Pick: Colts and the over

Teddy Bridgewater's Panthers have a good shot at upsetting the Raiders at home this week.panthers.com


Las Vegas Raiders (-3) @ Carolina Panthers O/U 47.5

Raiders head across the country for a 1:00 game at the Panthers and are still favored by 3. I think the books are sleeping a bit on the Panthers this year, and with very little tape on the Panthers new-look offense paired with a below average Raiders defense is the perfect recipe for a Week 1 "upset." I think it will be a lower scoring affair as well so the under is more appealing this week.

Pick: Panthers and the under

Miami Dolphins @ New England Patriots (-7) O/U 41.5

Miami heads into New England to start the year in a very intriguing match up. Cam Newton is now the Patriots new starting QB but a lack of talent at WR could hold this offense back. I think this will be a low scoring affair based on a revamped Miami defense and a brand new Patriots offense. I like Miami to cover here and also will take the under.

Pick: Miami to cover and the under

New York Jets @ Buffalo Bills (-6.5) O/U 39.5

The Jets don't have Jamal Adams or CJ Mosley on defense and the Bills went out and got Stefon Diggs to pair with John Brown and Cole Beasley at WR. I think the Bills easily cover the 6.5 spread this week and I am hammering this over. I think the Bills offense will be better and the Jets will get a couple of garbage touchdowns to push this one past 40 total points.

Pick: Bills and the over

Philadelphia Eagles (-5.5) @ Washington Football Team O/U 42.5

The Eagles head into this week down three of their five offensive lineman. They'll face off against one of the best defensive lines in the NFC in Washington. It will be tough to move the ball this week for both teams and with rain in the forecast for the game Sunday, this could be a low scoring match up. I like Washington to cover in this one.

Pick: Washington to cover and the under

Seattle Seahawks (-2.5) @ Atlanta Falcons O/U 48.5

The Seahawks get a slight edge here from the book even while making the cross country trip. Atlanta has a lot of firepower on offense which could put pressure on the Seattle defense, but I think this game will just finish under this week with Seattle's defense doing just enough to slow Atlanta down.

Pick: Seahawks and the under

Getty Images


Los Angeles Chargers (-3) @ Cincinnati Bengals O/U 41.5

Another west coast team playing on the east coast at 1:00 being favored. The Chargers have Tyrod Taylor as their new starting QB and have lost defensive star Derwin James for the year with a torn meniscus. Joe Burrow has looked very good, and with a less than 100% Chargers defense coming cross country for an early game, the Bengals are in a good position to steal a week 1 victory.

Pick: Bengals to cover and the over

Arizona Cardinals @ San Francisco 49ers (-6.5) O/U 48.5

A potentially high scoring match up on paper, but the 49ers defense returns intact from an excellent 2019 campaign. Continuity is key here, and even though Arizona added improvements on both sides of the ball, the 49ers are just too good right now for this to be less than a one score game.

Pick: 49ers and the under.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers @ New Orleans Saints (-3.5) 47.5

I think this will be one of the highest scoring match ups this week. Even with some injuries affecting the Buccaneers on offense this week, Tom Brady should be in for a duel with Drew Brees. The Chiefs-Texans game hit their over in a very nerve racking fashion on Thursday night, but the weather won't play a factor here like it did in that game. Saints win a close one but I think the Bucs will cover here.

Pick: Buccaneers to cover and the over

Dak Prescott looks to get the Cowboys in the win column in Week 1Getty Images


Dallas Cowboys (-2.5) @ Los Angeles Rams O/U 51.5

The Cowboys return an offense almost completely intact from a year ago, and with the addition of CeeDee Lamb and Dak Prescott playing on a one year deal, the Cowboys offense will be scoring points in bundles. The Rams are a bit harder to read, cutting Todd Gurley in the off season and regressed in 2019. I think 51.5 total points is a bit generous, especially in Week 1.

Pick: Cowboys and the under

Pittsburgh Steelers (-5.5) @ New York Giants O/U 45.5

This match up seems to be priced just right from a total points perspective, but I think the Steelers win this by at least 7 points this week. The Giants will stay in the game and I think will get a touchdown late at the end to just push this past the 45 points.

Pick: Steelers and the over

Tennessee Titans (-3) @ Denver Broncos O/U 40.5

Denver just lost Von Miller for the year and also will possibly be without Courtland Sutton this week against the visiting Titans. I am hesitant to put a lot of faith in the Titans until I can see Ryan Tannehill pick up where he left off in last year's post season. I think this is going to be a low scoring, defensive battle in the final game of the week.

Pick: Titans and the under.


Parlay me this, Batman!

Each week I'll stick my neck out there and give you a parlay to put together.

My parlay I'm playing this week is this: Bills (-6.5), Steelers (-5.5) and Bengals (+3)

Good luck out there this week and enjoy the NFL finally being back and bringing a sense of normalcy to our lives!

Until now, there was a void in the industry. An all-in-one prop bet research tool for Over/Under rankings did not exist. Fantasy SP has changed that.

Of course, you could find betting trends on the internet but there wasn’t a place where you could have all the information for every single player on the same page at your fingertips. Well, we wanted to change that. We’ve created the definitive NFL prop bet research tool for pros and newbies alike.

In a typical NFL week, there can be over 1,000 player prop lines available. Traditional player game logs are not optimal for researching player props. Our unique tool allows you to quickly analyze thousands of lines on your phone, tablet, or computer, and find the props with the greatest value. Don’t just bet on the players you like. Become more data-driven with your props research by using Fantasy SP’s Player Prop Over/Under Rankings!

This is the perfect prop bet research tool to make some serious cash. Place informed bets using relevant analytics and increase your chances of seeing your bankroll increase.

All | Pass Yds | Pass TDs| Pass Comp | Pass Att | Rush Att | Rush Yds | Rec | Rec Yds

Unique Features

With our brand-new Player Prop Over/Under Rankings Research Tool, users will be able to filter by tons of critical data points including home vs. away, favorite vs. underdog, player popularity, last few games, indoor vs. outdoor, specific props, specific teams, position rank, opponent rank, and so much more!

Research Prop Bet Betting Example

Okay, enough talk, and let’s get to a simple real-world example of how to use the tool to help you place a bet.

For example, Jared Goff has had some of the most ridiculous home/away splits in 2022.

Goff has a passer rating of 106.9 with 2,217 yards (277.1 yards per game), 20 touchdowns, and 3 interceptions in eight games at home this season. Pretty good, right? On the road, he has a passer rating of 82.5 with 1,387 yards (231.2 yards per game), 3 touchdowns, and 4 interceptions in six games.

As you can see, Goff is averaging 46 more yards per game at home in 2022 entering Week 16. Vegas may try to trick you when Goff is on the road after coming off a massive home game but by using our tool, you won’t be fooled.

Goff has a 5-3 O-U record on his passing yard props at Ford Field this season. While his average line at home on DraftKings is 247 yards, his average result is 277.1 passing yards. Prior to throwing for 250+ yards against the Jets at the Meadowlands in Week 15, he was 2-3 on his passing yards props on the road. His average line on DraftKings on the road was only 10 yards fewer heading into Week 15 yet he averaged a full 50 fewer yards per game (227). This shows a clear pattern that he is much more successful at hitting the over and much more efficient when playing in front of his home crowd. There are countless examples of patterns you can spot using this brand-new prop tool that are even more eye-popping than Goff’s numbers.

How to Find Favorable Prop Bets

The key to placing informed bets is to place bets on clear patterns. Ideally, you want to see a player consistently going over or under. Grab a concise list of potential bets to place and compare to the lines at your favorite operator.

Let’s say you want to place a passing yards prop bet on Tom Brady. You check all the lines at your favorite operator (we suggest Caesars or FanDuel) and need to put his line into context. How often does he go over? What outcomes occur against an easy matchup? What is his average result? How does he do at home versus on the road?

Using our exclusive Over-Under Rankings, you can utilize our premium filters to find out Brady’s historical prop record at home versus the road is even more volatile than Goff’s splits. (This is good and what we want to see.)

At home, Brady is averaging a whopping 307.3 passing yards and has hit the over in six of seven games heading into Week 15.

On the road, while his average line is only two yards fewer (271.2 to 269.2), he has a 1-5 O-U record and is only averaging 239 passing yards per game.

Fantasy SP has just highlighted a very promising prop bet whenever Brady is at home. Take the over. And when he is on the road, it’s a prime spot to smash the under.

Some players also tend to do much better when their team is the favorite such as running backs late in the fourth quarter when their team needs to kill time. Heading into Week 15, Dalvin Cook had a 7-2 O-U rushing yard record when his team was the favorite (79.9 yards per game). Conversely, when the Vikings were underdogs, he was 1-3 (57.8 yards per game). This is why filtering by favorite or underdog can be a critical data point to help you gain an edge at sportsbooks.

You can also filter by the last few games in case a player has begun to heat up or cool off. These filters will help you nail your bets in very specific scenarios. It’s the perfect tool for situational prop betting.

What the Experts Are Saying

Don’t simply trust our word. We provided a free preview to professional bettors and journalists and this is what they had to say:

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Matthew Rumack, Professional Sports Bettor

“This tool provides insight that I haven’t seen anywhere else in the sports betting industry. Fantasy SP has developed something truly unique. The premium filters that allow me to figure out how each player has performed in very specific situations are simply next-level. I will not be placing prop bets before using this tool for research!”

Mark Morales-Smith, Senior Fantasy & Gambling Writer

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The dropdowns and filters on this tool are what really make this a game-changing feature. If you only want to see the most popular players on the page, simply slide the popularity to 75% or 100%. If you want to see players’ over-under records and their average results for only home games, simply click Home on the dropdown. If you want to see over-under records for players against teams in the bottom 5 at defending that position, simply click Bottom 5 under Position Rank. Not only can you get all of this insight, but the sliders and dropdowns all work interactively with a user-friendly interface so you can find out how a player is doing in a very specific situation. For example, let’s say Dak Prescott and the Cowboys are hosting the top-five San Francisco 49ers defense and are four-point underdogs. To get a much clearer picture of how Prescott has performed in similar situations, you can check off Home, Underdog, Indoor, and Top 5 under Opponent Rank to get his exact over-under prop historical record in this particular situation. If he is 0-3 on his passing yard prop in this scenario, you may want to smash the under.

Wrap-Up

NFL prop betting can be overwhelming but this tool makes it easy to research the best bets for novices and seasoned vets alike. Bettors should not be placing their prop bets before doing the necessary research. Now you can do all that research on one page with Fantasy SP’s Player Prop Over/Under Rankings Research Tool! It doesn’t get much better than that.

Stay tuned for our future article on even more in-depth tips and tricks.

2022 World Cup Best Bets, Team Props, and Futures
2022 World Cup Best Bets, Team Props, and Futures

Picking up where they left off in 2018, the French National Team led by 23-year-old Kylian Mbappe have found their way back into the finals as they look to be the first back-to-back World Cup Champions since Brazil’s dominant runs in 1958 and 1962. Standing between that incredible feat for the defending champions is Argentina, who currently have their superstar, Lionel Messi, in top form. Messi is finding ways to create passes no one can see and he’s done it multiple times, assisting three goals (tied for the most) throughout the tournament. The legend is also scoring goals of his own and is tied with Kylian Mbappe (5 goals) for Golden Boot honors in this year’s World Cup. Regardless, soccer fans around the world are in for a treat on Sunday at 10:00 AM EST as two of the best players in the world face each other for their country’s World Cup glory.

After winning Group D, France defeated Poland in the Round of 16, England in the quarterfinals, and a strong Morocco team in the semis to advance to the Final. On the other side of the bracket, Argentina won Group C and dispatched Australia in the Round of 16. Messi and the Argentinians were then tested in the quarterfinals, needing a penalty shootout to defeat the Netherlands after blowing a late two-goal lead. Finally, Argentina played perhaps their best match of the tournament against Croatia in the semi-finals, winning 3-0. Now the stage is set for a blockbuster finale between two powerhouses featuring some of the top players in the world.

Note (from FanDuel Sportsbook): No team will play at home during Qatar's World Cup. For betting purposes, FanDuel explains that: “Home Team refers to the team listed first, Away Team refers to the second team listed.”

Argentina (-104) vs. France (-112)

Argentina Keys To Victory

Lionel Messi has played incredibly for Argentina throughout this World Cup. He is leaving opposing defenders in the dust, taking on multiple players at once, dragging them away from his teammates, which is opening up the field for his fellow goal scorers. Every time Messi has the ball at his feet, there seems to be more than one threat. Messi is playing just as well as he always has in 2022. He’s served his team as a playmaker and as a goal-scorer in Qatar. He’s also had some help from Manchester City forward Julian Alvarez who’s scored a handful of goals in this World Cup (including two in Argentina’s decisive victory over Croatia). If Alvarez and Messi are able to link up while on the attack, the depleted French defense and midfield could be in for some trouble.

France Keys To Victory

One of the biggest headlines heading into this World Cup Final is the return of French striker Karim Benzema. The Real Madrid star and winner of this year’s Ballon D’Or hurt his hamstring in one of France’s first practices soon after arriving in Qatar. He flew back to Madrid where he immediately completed his recovery work which was set at three weeks from the time of injury. Right now, Benzema is flying back to Doha and could be starting for France in the final. At the moment, France’s HC Didier Deschamps has declined to comment on whether or not he will be including KB9 in the starting lineup. France’s ball movement has been excellent throughout the tournament, but their key to victory against Argentina will be efficient defense. Over the last few games, France’s defense seems to have slowed down. Not only will they need to stop Messi, but they will need to turn defensive stops into counterattacks. Mbappe and Olivier Giroud (four goals thus far in the tournament) will need to be electric on offense and test the Argentinian keeper. Antoine Griezmann may be an x-factor for France as he has three assists in this World Cup and was inches away from scoring against Morocco.

Conclusion

It’s only fitting that Lionel Messi will finally hoist the World Cup trophy in his last World Cup match. Expect him to score a goal and lead his team to victory in a tightly contested battle.

The Pick: Argentina (-104)

World Cup Final Best Prop Bets

Kylian Mbappe: To Score Or Give Assist (+100)

Mbappé has been relatively quiet over France’s last few games. Still, he is the main wing on France’s team who is capable of breaking down defenses through his skillful technique and ridiculous speed. He currently is tied with Messi for the most goals in the 2022 World Cup. If he isn’t able to score in this game, then expect him to at least make an assist. For France to win this one, the 23-year-old will need to have a big game.

Lionel Messi: Anytime Goalscorer (+190)

Messi has stepped up his performance big time this World Cup. If you have watched Argentina play in this tournament, you know how crucial of a role Messi has played in the team’s success. He is tied for the most goals in the tournament with Mbappe and has a great chance of putting the ball in the net at some point during Sunday’s big match. This is a particularly great prop to target since Messi takes all of Argentina’s penalty shots and has converted four-of-five throughout the tournament.

Fantasy SP has worked diligently to bring you next-level sports betting analytics, prop betting tools, public betting splits, and so much more! Become an Edge+ member today!

Calling every sports fan across the globe! The best month for all things sports is here: December. NFL and CFB are getting into the thick of things — I mean, we are finally not seeing Alabama and Clemson in the CFP, not to mention both the NBA and NHL are underway and college basketball just tipped off!

Despite all of these different sporting events going on, the World’s biggest Sporting event is down to the Semifinals, the World Cup.

Although Soccer is the World's most popular sport, it still struggles to gain support in the US. However, every 4 years Soccer takes the country by storm and this year, and these last few games are going to be amazing.

Let us introduce you to your new go-to app, FanDuel Sportsbook. It’s the place to be for not only the usual sports, but for this year's World Cup!

FanDuel Sportsbook is providing a multitude of features with a few market differentiators.

  • Futures:
    • World Cup Winner
    • Who will win the Golden Boot (the award for the top goal scorer of the World Cup)
    • Highest scoring Group
    • And more
  • Popular Markets - outside of the normal Moneyline, Spread & Over/Under lines, FanDuel will also be offering:
    • Anytime Goal Scorer
    • First Goal Scorer
    • Shots on Goal
    • Correct Score
    • Number of Corner Kicks
    • Half-Time Result

Market Differentiators:

  • Tournament Goal Scorer Parlay Builder - build your own tournament-long Goal Scorer parlays with your favorite players from every team.
  • Daily Specials:
    • Highest scoring team of the day
    • Total daily goals
    • Player specials
    • And More!
  • Live Parlays

Out of all the betting apps we’ve used, signing up for FanDuel Sportsbook is also the easiest. Simply download the app and create an account by providing an email, credit card, and SS# — that’s to protect your winnings and ensure you're not a sporting professional.

FanDuel is undoubtedly the best site/app to parlay across multiple sports. It’s designed for bettors at any stage. The clear interface is ideal for beginners and you can make a bet in just a few clicks! It’s complete with a number of betting guides that explain the rules and resources to safely bet.

One of the best parts is that once the game ends, you can cash out your winnings right away. No minimum, no wait.

There’s also the incredible New User Offer: sign up with FanDuel Sportsbook and get up to $1000 in Free Bets if you lose your first bet!

Their app has everything you need — from tutorials to real-time game scores. Get amped for the World Cup with FanDuel Sportsbook. Enhance your Sportsember by downloading the FanDuel Sportsbook app today!

Terms & Conditions: 21+ and present in CO, IA, IL, IN, MI, NJ, PA, TN, VA or WV. New users only. Must wager in designated offer market. $10 first deposit required. $150 max bonus. See full terms at sportsbook.fanduel.com. Gambling Problem? Call: 1-800-522-4700 (CO), 1-800-BETS-OFF (IA), 1-800-9-WITH-IT (IN), 1-800-270-7117 for confidential help (MI), 1-800-GAMBLER (NJ, PA, IL, VA), TN REDLINE 1-800-889-9789 (TN), or visit www.1800gambler.net (WV).