Tom Brady and dogs dominate this prop bet primer

Kevin Perkins/Pedro Andrade - PacificCoastNews.com

We've reached the pinnacle of the football season.

The Super Bowl is finally here, and the Buccaneers are looking to unseat the reigning world champion Chiefs.

For the rest of us that aren't fans of these two organizations, that means that we'll be outsiders looking in as their teams fight for the right to hoist the Lombardi trophy at the conclusion of this game. That also means that since there isn't a whole lot riding on this for the majority of NFL fans, we need to find ways to keep ourselves interested for four quarters of football.

Answer to this problem? Prop bets!


Because the Super Bowl is the only game in town, it's always been a beacon for some of the wildest prop bets we see all year. How often will COVID-19 be brought up during the telecast? How many times will we see dogs featured in commercials? Who gets more screen time between Gisele and Roger Goodell? These are all burning questions that we must know, and we want to put some money on it.

Let's take a look at some of the best prop bets you can place before the Super Bowl kicks off this Sunday.

All bets and odds are taken from BetMGM Sportsbook and Odds Shark unless otherwise noted. These bets are using moneyline odds which means the odds are represented by either being (+) or (-) an amount. For example if a bet's odds is +200, it would mean you would need to bet $100 to win $200. If a bet's odds is -200, it would mean you would need to bet $200 to win $100.

Due to the extended break between the conference championship games and the Super Bowl, there is time to discuss the game, what we expect to see, and the storylines that makeup the matchup. One of those has been the achievements of Tom Brady, both in the past with New England and with what he's been able to accomplish in his first season with Tampa Bay this year.

Brady will undoubtedly be a focal point of conversation throughout the game and that brings us to our first prop bet.

The Bet: What will be mentioned first on the broadcast?

Odds: Tom Brady's 10th Super Bowl Appearance (-150) or Tom Brady's Age which is 43 (+110)

Our Pick: This is really a toss up. Most likely the two facts will be talked about at the top of the broadcast in short order. It will either be presented as, "The 43 year old is making his 10th Super Bowl appearance," or, "This is the 10th Super Bowl appearance for the 43 year old Brady." We're going with 10th Super Bowl Appearance at -150.

Another hot topic during the broadcast will be the Covid-19 pandemic and the work the NFL did to get through the season and to the Super Bowl. A second aspect of that will be talking about the job NFL Commissioner, Roger Goodell, did guiding the league to this accomplishment.

The Bet: What will be said first?

Odds: "COVID" (-500) or "Pandemic" (+300)

Our Pick: It seems most likely that during the broadcast an announcer will in this order say the words, "COVID-19 pandemic," but don't underestimate network television's ability to soften the blow when it comes to divisive or touchy subjects. A good way to do such a thing when addressing the pandemic is to lead with a less ostentatious "pandemic" mention before highlighting the notorious "COVID" on air during such a joyous event. We're going with "Pandemic" at +300.

deleteThe Bet: How many times will Roger Goodell be shown?

Odds: Over 1.5 (-140) or Under 1.5 (-140)

Our Pick: This is an even line with an over under of 1.5 times shown. Pick your own adventure! This is an easy over, go bet it now before the line changes. Taking the over at -140.

Speaking of screen time, another cut-away magnet during any Tom Brady Super Bowl is his wife, Gisele Bunchden. It's tough to know whether Gisele will even be at Raymond James Stadium for Super Bowl LV, but that doesn't necessarily mean she wouldn't be shown via social media live streams or posts.


The Bet: How many times will Gisele Bunchden be shown?

Odds: Over 1.5 (-250) or Under 1.5 (+170)

Our Pick: We're betting on Gisele staying home with her and Tom's lovely family, leaving viewers to focus on her husband trying to add another ring to his collection. Even if we get an Instagram post displayed, it's hard to imagine more than one. We are taking the under of 1.5 appearances for Gisele during the Super Bowl at +170.

Tom's other significant other, Bill Belichick, is likely to be mentioned as well. The question of whether Brady could make it without his former coach and vice versa has always been out there, but only now do we get to see if we get some conclusive evidence. It seems inevitable that Belichick is talked about multiple times during the broadcast, especially if we get a new Subway commercial from Hollywood Bill.

The Bet: How many times will Bill Belichick be mentioned?

Odds: More than once (-175) or Less than once (+135) via VegasOdds.com

Our Pick: The odds will be against you, but the smart money is going to be on betting the over of more than one mention of Bill Belichick at -175. If you have enough to put on this one that makes the return worth it for you take the over on this one.

At this point you have to be thinking to yourself: It's about time for one of these bets to be related to the Chiefs or Patrick Mahomes, since it seems like this is nearing the end of the article. You would be right about it being near the end, but you'd be wrong about the final prop bet to be about the the Chiefs or their star quarterback. The final prop we want to cover will likely determine how many people are feeling after the conclusion of Super Bowl LV.

The Bet: How many commercials will have a dog in it?

Odds: Over 4.5 (-250) or Under 4.5 (+170) via BetOnline.ag

Our Pick: So we are really just hedging our bets here, but I look at it as a win/win. Who doesn't need more dogs, especially after the year we've had. I'm taking the under at +170 here. Not because I don't think there will be or should be that many dog featuring commercials, but because I do. If we lose out on this bet it just means that we got more doggos this year which is always a win, but if we win the bet at least we get compensated for a lack of proper doggo representation during our football respites.

There's no better bet than a win/win and when you get commercials like this who doesn't feel like a winner?

Budweiser Clydesdale Puppy Love Super Bowl 2014 Commercial www.youtube.com

Stephen Curry, Golden State Warriors

Tom Pennington, Getty Images

In Game 3 of the Eastern Conference Finals, Bam Adebayo's 31-point and 10-rebound double-double led the Miami Heat to a 109-103 victory over the Celtics on the road. That was followed by a dominant second-half performance by Stephen Curry and Andrew Wiggins who led the Warriors to a 3-0 lead in the Western Conference Finals.

Tonight, we'll get the first of these two matchups. Boston will look to come back in their second home game against a Heat team that is clearly not at 100% healthy. Tyler Herro has been ruled out for Game 4 while Kyle Lowry remains questionable. Here are some of the best bets for tonight's and tomorrow's big Game 4s.

Please note that all odds and lines are from FanDuel Sportsbook and were accurate at 3:30 PM EST. Be sure to check for line movement or odd changes.

ECF Game 4: Miami Heat at Boston Celtics -7 (MIA Leads 2-1)

In Game 4, the Celtics rallied back from double-digits to make things interesting in the fourth quarter. However, Boston conceded Game 3 to the Miami Heat 109-103. On Sunday, Bam Adebayo was getting everything he wanted down low. He finished with 31 points, 10 boards, six assists, four steals, and one block. Ime Udoka will need to boost the presence of his big men down low, perhaps by extending Daniel Theis’ minutes or having him share the floor more with Al Horford. The major reason for which the Heat are considered the seven-point underdogs for tonight’s game is injuries. Tyler Herro has already been ruled out for Game 4, and the Heat have four or five other players in their lineup currently listed as questionable. This includes Max Struss, Kyle Lowry, Jimmy Butler, and P.J. Tucker. Butler is dealing with knee inflammation which sidelined him for the second half of Game 3.

Even if all of the players in the Heat’s rotation are good to go tonight (outside of Herro), Boston has not lost back-to-back home games since late October. Plus, Jaylen Brown is shooting much better than he did earlier in the postseason. In fact, he’s elevated his shooting to 50% from the field through the 2021-22 playoffs through 14 games played. Expect Boston to bounce back big in Game 4, with multiple players on the Miami Heat not at full strength.

The Pick: Boston Celtics -7 (-110)

WCF Game 4: Golden State Warriors at Dallas Mavericks -1 (GSW Leads 3-0)

Well, it’s looking like the Golden State Warriors are returning to the NBA Finals. With the emergence of Jordan Poole late this season and into the postseason, Andrew Wiggins’ First-Team All-Star season, and Klay Thompson’s return to basketball, Golden State has been simply phenomenal. Golden State is simply that good this year, with anyone on the team capable of stepping up. Stephen Curry erupted in Game 3, while it was Andrew Wiggins that caught fire in the second half of Game 4. Any given night, the Warriors have one or two guys who they can count on for scoring approximately 25+ points. Considering the Mavericks' struggles this round, particularly behind the three-point line, bettors should go with the Warriors as the slight underdog. Teams get swept sometimes. Just ask the Brooklyn Nets. The Warriors will bring out the brooms and sweep the Mavericks as they punch their ticket to the NBA Finals Tuesday night.

The Pick: Golden State Warriors ML -104

NBA Player Props

Golden State Warriors at Dallas Mavericks -1 (GSW Leads 3-0)

Prop #1: Stephen Curry, Over 27.5 Points

Stephen Curry has scored 31 points and 32 points over the last two games. He’s done so by converting at least 50% from the field in each contest. It makes sense that he would score at least 28 points in a series-clinching victory tomorrow night. Curry is averaging 27.1 PPG on 45.9% this postseason but has certainly put up more points and done so more efficiently over the last few games.

Prop #2: Luka Doncic, Over 3.5 Threes

Luka has drained nine three-pointers over the last two games. He’s knocked down at least four threes in three of his last four contests. Facing elimination and hoping to not let down the home crowd in back-to-back home playoff games, Doncic will convert at least four baskets from downtown in Game 4.

Tyler Herro (Left), Bam Adebayo (Right), Miami Heat

Getty Images

Jimmy Butler, Tyler Herro, Bam Adebayo, and the Miami Heat held their own against the Celtics in Game 1 of the Eastern Conference Finals. Likewise, Andrew Wiggins and Stephen Curry led the Warriors to a 112-87 blowout over Luka Doncic and the Dallas Mavericks. Tonight, the Celtics play their second game on the road against the Heat. On Friday night, the Mavericks will look to bounce back after shooting horrifically in Game 1.

Let’s take a look at the best bets for the two NBA Conference Final Game 2 matchups set for 8:30 PM EST. tonight and 9:00 PM EST. tomorrow night.

Please note that all odds and lines are from FanDuel Sportsbook and were accurate at 4:30 PM EST. Be sure to check for line movement or odd changes.

Best Bets of the Night

Game: Boston Celtics at Miami Heat -2 (MIA Leads 1-0)

After a nail-biting series with the Milwaukee Bucks that the Celtics won in grandiose fashion, Boston conceded Game 1 of the Eastern Conference Finals to the Miami Heat. Tonight, they play Game 2 of the series at the FTX Arena and hope to bounce back from Tuesday’s 11-point loss. One of the principal reasons for their defeat in Game 1 was the absence of Marcus Smart (foot sprain) and Al Horford (health & safety protocols). It remained a relatively close game until the third quarter in which the Celtics were outscored 14-3 to begin the second half. Derrick White filled in for Marcus Smart and was terribly inefficient from the field. He scored three points (1-4 FG) and had four assists in 29 minutes filling in for the Defensive Player of the Year. In contrast, Max Struss and Gabe Vincent did a terrific job of filling in for Kyle Lowry, combining for 28 points on 9-of-19 shooting. In addition, Tyler Herro had a good night with a pivotal 18 points (7-15 FG) off the bench. Fortunately for the Celtics, both Smart and Horford are expected to return tonight.

Head Coach Ime Udoka indicated to reporters today that Smart was probable to play this evening. Horford was cleared of health and safety protocols today making him available for tonight’s contest. For those of you who have watched the Celtics this postseason, Horford and Smart have upped their play and have been absolutely integral to the team’s success. Tonight, let’s take the Boston Celtics to take a game on the road in the same fashion that they took two road games from the Bucks in the last series.

The Pick: Boston Celtics ML +108

Tonight's Best NBA Player Props

Game: Boston Celtics at Miami Heat -2 (MIA Leads 1-0)

Prop#1: Gabe Vincent Over 9.5 Points
In Game 1 without Kyle Lowry, Gabe Vincent scored 17 points in 34 minutes on 50% shooting from the field. As Kyle Lowry is out again for Game 2 tonight, expect Vincent to score at least 10 points. Vincent has performed admirably while filling in for the veteran. Even when Lowry returns, it's quite possible that Erik Spoelstra will give some of Lowry's minutes to Vincent.
Prop#2: Al Horford Over 9.5 Points
After five straight double-digit scoring performances, Al Horford scored eight points or fewer in the last three games of the Eastern Conference Semifinals against the Bucks. He missed Game 1 of the Celtics' series against the Miami Heat after entering Health & Safety protocols. Since he was only out for one game, he shouldn't face any minute restrictions tonight. Horford should score at least 10 points in 30+ minutes on the floor.

Tomorrow Night's Best NBA Bet

Game: Dallas Mavericks at Golden State -6 (GSW Leads 1-0)

Dallas was annihilated by Golden State in Game 1 of the Western Conference Finals. This comes after the Mavs blew out the Phoenix Suns on the road in impressive fashion, punching their ticket to the next round of the playoffs for a series against the Warriors. Golden State shot an impressive 56.1% from the field in the opening game and finished with 112 points. Just as important as the offensive production, Golden State clamped down on defense. The Warriors contained Luka Doncic, who converted just six of his 18 field goals on his way to 20 points. Andrew Wiggins did an excellent job guarding the young playmaker. Luka's teammates didn't help out much either as the Mavericks shot 36% from the field in Game 1, and 22.9% from downtown (11-48 3PT FG) for just 87 points on the night.

While I think the Warriors will win again on Friday night, expect the Mavericks to keep things more interesting after such an abysmal night shooting from the field. Dallas will make the adjustments needed to make this a competitive Game 2 in the Bay area.

The Pick: Dallas Mavericks +6 (-110)

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Klay Thompson, Golden State Warriors

Ezra Shaw/Getty Images

Klay Thompson is coming off one of his signature Game 6 performances. Thompson dropped his second-highest point total of the postseason, punching Golden State's ticket to the Western Conference Finals after defeating the Memphis Grizzlies in six games. In the elimination game, Thompson led the team with 30 points (11-22 from the field and 8-14 from beyond the arc), eight boards, two assists, and three blocks. Considering the multitude of injuries he has fought back from and the adversity he has faced, it's quite amazing that the five-time All-Star has converted at least 50% of his three-point shots in three of his last four outings. He seems to be in great form entering this pivotal series with the Mavericks.

Dallas stunned the top-seeded Phoenix Suns and reigning Western Conference champs on the road in Game 7, 123-90, and earned a trip to the Western Conference Finals. Let's see if Thompson can remain scorching hot as Stephen Curry and the Dubs host Luka Doncic and the Dallas Mavericks in Game 1 of the Western Conference Finals tonight. Now, let's take a look at some of the best bets and player props to consider for tonight’s big matchup!

Please note that all odds and lines are from FanDuel Sportsbook and were accurate at 3:30 PM EST. Be sure to check for line movement or odd changes.

Best Bets of the Night

Bet #1: Golden State Warriors -5 (-110)

Following a tough loss in Game 5 to the Grizzlies despite Ja Morant’s absence from the lineup, the Warriors bounced back and closed the series at home in Game 6. They take on the Dallas Mavericks, who’ve been absolutely unbelievable on defense. Changes made to the Mavs’ rotation by Jason Kidd worked flawlessly against Chris Paul, Devin Booker, and the Suns in the previous round. One surprise for Dallas this postseason has been former New York Knicks lottery pick, Frank Ntilikina. He's a player who has stepped up immensely this postseason, especially on defense. Throughout the series, Ntilikina held Chris Paul and Devin Booker to a combined 3-of-40 shooting from the field when he guarded them.

It will be interesting to see if Jason Kidd keeps his minutes up, or perhaps increases them after what was truly an astonishing defensive performance against the Suns. Unfortunately for the Mavericks, the Golden State Warriors have four efficient scorers who will need to be contained. The Warriors will cover the spread tonight and win by more than five points on their home floor.

Bet #2: Over 214.5 Total Points (-110)

Dallas scored an impressive 123 points in Game 7, and they did so on the road. I expect them to reach at least 110 points in Game 1 of the Western Conference Finals. The Warriors shot on and off throughout their series against the Memphis Grizzlies. Nonetheless, they averaged 111 PPG in their series against Memphis (666 total points scored by the Warriors over six games). Both teams play a style of basketball that stresses ball movement to find an open man beyond the arc. When Dallas or Golden State shoot 40%-45% from the field, they can score in the hundreds because of the high volume of shots they take. Dallas started taking more shots and playing at a faster pace in the second half of their series against Phoenix. By the half in Game 7, Dallas was up 57-27. In the game, the Mavericks went 19-of-39 from downtown (48.9%). Even more impressive was Dallas’ 56.8% shooting from the field. Although the Warriors are one of the best defensive teams in the league, a 214.5-point Over / Under for tonight’s game is quite low. Smash the Over.

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NBA Player Props of the Night

Prop #1: Jordan Poole Over 1.5 Threes (-174)

Jordan Poole has finally cooled down after a stretch of three 20-point games against the Grizzlies. Over the last three contests, Poole has only hit two or more three-pointers in one contest. Over those last three games, he shot a combined 3-of-17 from downtown. While Poole has been highly inefficient over the last few games, he’ll hit at least two three-pointers in Game 1 tonight. The odds of this prop reflect how likely it is to happen. Although Poole isn't seeing as high a usage rate as when Curry and Thompson were injured during the regular season, Poole should still see plenty of open looks in the 25+ minutes he should log tonight. Given that Dallas will most likely try to stop Curry and Thompson from beating them, Poole should see a few wide-open looks. He will knock down at least two from deep range tonight.

Prop #2: Klay Thompson Over 20.5 Points (-112)

Klay Thompson has averaged just about 20.5 points since he came back this regular season. Throughout the postseason, he’s played strong and for the most part, been efficient from the field. Through 11 games in this postseason, Thompson is averaging 20.4 PPG on 45% shooting from the field. I like him to hit the over here in his first Western Conference Final matchup in three years. After getting his swagger back and dropping 30 points to eliminate the Grizzlies last round, Thompson should have all. the confidence in the world heading into Game 1 in the bay.

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