Picks, Parlays, and Props for the Super Bowl
The biggest game of the year is just a few short hours away, and that means you only have a few hours to get your last minute bets in for Super Bowl LV!
Championship Round Vibe Check (0-4)
For this game, it's going to be a Props-apalooza!! We will be running down props and picks to carry you from the first snap to the final play. Sure, making money is nice, but in this scenario, being invested the whole game is the goal. Let's begin!
First TD for the Bucs: Cameron Brate @ 10/1
Brate has been a sneakily fun target for Brady this season, especially since OJ Howard went down early in the year. The Harvard product has three TDs on the year, including one against the Packers, and has a catch every game going back to October. He's been scorching hot in the postseason, leading the team in red zone and end zone targets over that stretch. There are bigger, more reliable pass catchers on the team, but you absolutely gotta love these odds.
Mike Evans Will Score at least 1 TD +175
Speaking of better pass catchers, Mike Evans has been a dominant force for the Bucs, and Brady's most productive target this season. He had 13 TDs in the regular season, plus two in the last two playoff games. He presents a matchup nightmare anytime he steps on the field, and it stands to reason he'll get one.
Mike Evans’ stats today: 2 catches 2 yards 2 touchdowns https://t.co/gziYIIGGOP— Trevor Sikkema (@Trevor Sikkema) 1601243019.0
Travis Kelce and Mike Evans Both Score a TD +270
You've just heard my argument for Evans scoring during this game. Allow me to double down that same argument for Kelce. The man carried on the legacy of Tony Gonzalez, and become as hard to guard as any offensive player in the league. It certainly helps to have Tyreek Hill to take the top off and Patrick Mahomes who never lets a play die. Kelce comes in on a six game TD streak with two in his last games. Look for a score from the big man.
Tom Brady over .5 Rushing Yards +165
The patented Tom Brady Sneak™ is as potent as ever. Bruce Arians lives by the "No risk it, No biscuit" philosophy, so I have to believe as long as there's a 4th and 1 situation that the Bucs will pull this trick out. The biggest risk here is the off chance that Tampa wins and he kneels down the stretch, which could led to a bad backdoor beat.
Will There Be a Failed PAT? Yes +210
Harrison Butker has missed seven extra points this season, including one against the Browns in the divisional round. He was at 87.5% for the season, the lowest mark of his career. He even missed a 33 yard field goal in that Cleveland game, which is all the more astounding given his accuracy from further out. It was so bad he had to address the issue back in October. Ryan Succop, a great name Hall of Famer, has been similarly spotty on point after's this season. He's shanked five of his own, bringing his percentage to 91.2% on the year. My belief is there will be an abundance of scoring, giving ample chances to whiff for one of these guys. Given this is the biggest game of the year, I think it is fair to say there will be some frayed nerves and one miss between them.
Will Tyreek Hill Score A TD in the First Half? Yes +200
The last time that Tyreek Hill faced the Bucs D, he racked up 203 yards and two touchdowns... IN THE FIRST QUARTER. The Bucs did adjust well and held Tyreek in check for the rest of the game, but the explosive wide receiver can break for a touchdown anytime he touches the ball. The odds here are the main factor. Do I think Hill will score once in this game? Yes. Is it just as likely to happen in the second half? Maybe. But if I get a whole half to root for a score to happen that will almost definitely happen, sign me up.
Tyreek Hill is torching the Buccaneers with 203 yards and 2 TDs in the first quarter. https://t.co/KEbRin4m8o— USA TODAY NFL (@USA TODAY NFL) 1606687946.0
Will the Chiefs/Bucs Convert a Fourth Down? -140/-135
Andy Reid is famously aggressive. His belief in his offense's ability to convert fourth downs has become the stuff of legend (#HennethingIsPossible) and defenses curse his decision to keep them on the field one more play. This is absolutely a lock to happen, which is why I feel comfortable happily taking the minus odds to get some free money. Meanwhile, the Bucs, despite Arians' motto, notoriously wilt under the pressure of a fourth down. The Chiefs got for it on fourth down's under three yards to go half of the time, and the Bucs half that number down to 25%. The chances are the Bucs, possibly under the strain of the Chiefs relentless aerial attack, will be forced to take the plunge, at least, once. Maybe more if they hope to actually win.