Julius Randle, New York Knicks
The NBA has a stacked schedule of 11 games tonight.
This includes two very contested battles in the East between the top-seeded Miami Heat and the third-seeded Boston Celtics. meanwhile, the New York Knicks will continue to play spoiler as they host the eighth-seeded Charlotte Hornets in a desperate attempt to squeeze into the play-in games. Let’s dive in.
Please Note: All lines are listed from FanDuel Sportsbook and were accurate at the time of publication. Be sure to monitor line movement.
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Game 1: Atlanta Hawks at Oklahoma City Thunder +12.5
OKC is one of the worst teams in the league. To make matters worse, they lost Luguentz Dort and Josh Giddey for the season before shutting down Shai Gilgeous-Alexander. OKC is playing at home with a roster that currently is unrecognizable to most. In contrast, the Hawks have a fully healthy team and are trying to hang on to the No. 10 seed in the East, currently 0.5 games behind the ninth-seeded Hornets, and 1.5 games behind the eighth-seeded Nets. The only player they are currently missing is John Collins who will be out for tonight’s game but is currently DTD. Atlanta has everything to play for while it is undeniably in OKC’s best interest to tank. While the fans won’t like it, Atlanta will beat OKC by more than 13 points tonight on the road.
The Pick: Atlanta Hawks -12.5
Game 2: Orlando Magic at Washington Wizards -3
I did think there was a good chance the Wizards would lose at home last night even though the Bulls were the three-point underdogs. In turn, I expect the Wizards to bounce back and beat the Orlando Magic by 10+ points at home. Orlando has won seven of its 20 total victories this season since February 25. Relatively speaking, Orlando has been playing the best basketball it has all season over the last month. For that reason, the spread for tonight’s game over-values the Magic’s very minimal success over the last month.
The Pick: Washington Wizards -3
Game 3: Miami Heat at Boston Celtics (-5.5)
Boston held the eighth seed in the East at the beginning of January and has climbed its way to third overall in the Eastern Conference at 47-29. Tonight they host the Miami Heat, who have overcome injuries this season to claim the top seed in the East but only remain one game ahead of the Celtics. This game is too close to call because both teams will be fighting for this win like it's a playoff game. This has me inclined to say that it will be a high-scoring game. Both teams average approximately 110.5 points per game and are ranked in the middle of the pack among NBA teams in scoring. A few players could erupt tonight for huge games. I would expect Jayson Tatum, Jaylen Brown, and Jimmy Butler alone to combine for approximately 100 points of scoring tonight. If this holds true, both teams should combine for 214 points (average of 107 points each) in what should be a highly contested Eastern Conference matchup, and potential Eastern Conference Finals preview.
The Pick: Over 213 Total Points
Same Game Parlay of the Night
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Game: Charlotte Hornets at New York Knicks +1.5
Leg 1: Miles Bridges Over 19.5 Points
Miles Bridges has scored at least 24 points in each of his last three games. For him to hit the over tonight, Bridges only needs to score 20. I like this prop especially against the Knicks in the Garden where Bridges erupted for a career-high 38 points on MLK Day. I like his chances to record at least 20 points tonight at the Garden, where the Hornets are fighting to keep the current eight-seed in the East.
Leg 2: Alec Burks Over 14.5 Points
The Knicks are starting to realize that they can do a lot more with Burks when he plays in his natural position of shooting guard. Here are his scoring totals over his last five games: 21, 17, 12, 18, and 27 points. Although Burks is shooting below 40% from the field this season, he has shot more efficiently as of late with Thibedeau making some very late coaching changes. In his element, Burks is a 15-20 point-a-night guy on any team that he plays for. The Knicks will need him to score at least 15 points if they want to compete against Charlotte tonight.
Leg 3: Julias Randle Over 1.5 Threes
Randle remains the Knicks' highest scorer, just 0.1 PPG ahead of RJ Barrett who is currently scoring 20 PPG exactly. Although the Knicks have been winning, Randle hasn’t shot efficiently from the field. Over his last five games, he’s only recorded two or more three-pointers in one contest. However, Randle has taken a minimum of four threes in each of his last five and remains 30.5% from beyond the arc. While he’s been shooting much worse all around this season and has shot more than 10% worse from downtown, Randle can still knock down threes. He shot one of nine from the field in 28 minutes against the Bulls earlier this week even though New York won. I think Randle ends his micro-shooting slump (within the greater slump which has been his season altogether) tonight as the Knicks need him to secure a very important home win against the Charlotte Hornets.
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