Giannis Antetokounmpo, Milwaukee Bucks (Left) & Jaylen Brown, Boston Celtics (Right)
As we head into mid-May, the NBA Playoffs are into Game 4's of the Western Conference and Eastern Conference Semi-Finals.
Tonight, the Boston Celtics will look to tie their series up on the road after a brutal 103-101 defeat to the Bucks in Game 3. In the West, the Memphis Grizzlies who will be without Ja Morant in Game 4 are in need of a miracle to take Game 4 on the road from Golden State. Let's take a look at the best NBA Playoffs bets and player props of this evening.
Please Note: All odds and lines are from FanDuel Sportsbook and were accurate at 12 PM EST. Be sure to check for line movement or odd changes.
Game: Boston Celtics at Milwaukee Bucks -1 (MIL Leads 2-1)
Milwaukee won their first of two games at home by only two points. In Boston, both teams got a win. In Game 3, Giannis Antetokounmpo had another huge game. He finished with 42 points, 12 rebounds, eight assists, two blocks, and two steals. Giannis and the Bucks got whatever they wanted down low in Game 3.
Both teams shot poorly from the field, but the Bucks shot just a little better and got more shots off. Milwaukee finished the night shooting 40.4% (40-99 FG) as a team, while Boston converted 36.8% (32-87 FG) as a team. Ultimately, Boston has a good chance of bouncing back tonight. They couldn’t shoot worse as a team than they did in Game 3, and Boston wants to leave Milwaukee with a win, the same way the Bucks stripped them of one of the first home games.
The Pick: Boston Celtics +1 (-110)
Game: Memphis Grizzlies at Golden State Warriors -10 (GSW Leads 2-1)
Golden State scored a whopping 142 points on Saturday night to win Game 3 of their series against the Memphis Grizzlies by 30 points. No team can score that much unless they have impeccable ball movement, strong defense, and great shooting. The Warriors hit on all of those marks. Regarding ball movement, you will have to watch to see their magic. While the Grizzlies shot a very mediocre 43.5% from the field in Game 3, the Warriors converted 53-of-84 shots from the field ending the night shooting 63.1% from the field as a team. The new Splash brothers are making a bang in the 2022 playoffs. Stephen Curry (30 PTS), Klay Thompson (21 PTS), and Jordan Poole (27 PTS) combined for 78 points on the night. Each of them shot 50% or better from the field. While Golden State is clearly capable of shooting 50% from the field night in and night out, Memphis cannot. With the exception of Ja Morant who scored 34 points (13-21 FG), the Grizzlies’ core players ran into a wall in Game 3. Jaren Jackson Jr. had another rough night, scoring 15 points (4-13 FG) in 29 minutes. For some reason, De’Anthony Melton took 14 shots from the field only to convert five of them (35.7 FG%). Finally, Tyus Jones and Brandon Clarke combined for only six points and one-of-nine shooting from the field! While Memphis should shoot better from the field in Game 4 (how could they shoot worse in the playoffs?), it still won’t be enough to contain Golden State’s unbelievable chemistry and high-power offense. The biggest concern for the Grizzlies is the health of Ja Morant, who injured his knee after Jordan Poole inadvertently pulled it when attempting to steal the ball late in the fourth quarter of Game 3.
The only player on the Grizzlies who has been reliable through the first three games of this Western Conference Semifinal has been Morant. The latest news suggests that Ja will not play in Game 4, which would be devastating for the Memphis Grizzlies. If the Grizzlies lose both games on the road, they will head back to Memphis down 3-1 in the series. That's never a good deficit to have to fight out of in the NBA Playoffs.
Besides Morant and Bane, everyone else on Memphis’ roster has been inconsistent and unreliable. Notably, Jaren Jackson seems uncomfortable on the floor. While Bane and Morant are doing their job, Jackson hasn’t been able to consistently throughout these playoffs. In contrast, I can’t remember the last time Jordan Poole scored less than 20 points (Eight points in 26 minutes played during a blowout win against Denver Game 5). Simply put, the Grizzlies can’t rely on Ja Morant, and maybe Desmond Bane every night. While betting on the +390 moneyline for Memphis to win would be irresponsible, consider taking Memphis +10 to cover the spread. Golden State could still win by nine points, and you’d come out on top. Even without Morant, the Grizzlies have a ton of energy and speed and are one of the few teams in the league that can run with Golden State. Tyus Jones and De'Anthony Melton will have much more significant roles to play in Morant's absence while Desmond Bane and Dillon Brooks will need to produce scorching-hot numbers to keep Memphis competitive in this pivotal Game 4.
The Pick: Memphis Grizzlies +10 (-110)
NBA Player Props of the Night
Game: Boston Celtics at Milwaukee Bucks (MIL Leads 2-1)
Prop: Giannis Antetokounmpo Over 30.5 Points (-120)
Giannis erupted for 42 points in Game 3. It’s tough to picture him scoring 10 fewer points tonight than he did on Saturday. The Greek Freak is certainly feeding off of the home crowd’s energy. Through the first two games of the series, Giannis combined for 20-of-52 (or 38%) shooting from the field. In his return home in Game 3, Giannis knocked down 16 of his 30 shots taken from the field. Expect him to shoot 50% or better from the field in Game 4 to score approximately 35 points. Without Khris Middleton, Milwaukee is letting Giannis attack the rim whenever he gets the ball. Jrue Holiday, Bobby Portis, Brook Lopez, and even Pat Connaughton have all stepped up big time but it's still the Greek Freak's show in Milwaukee.
Prop: Jaylen Brown Over 2.5 Threes (-150)
In the first round of the playoffs, Jaylen Brown struggled from deep. In fact, through those four games against the Nets in the first round, Brown shot for a combined 4-of-19 (or 21%) from downtown. However, things are looking better for Boston’s star wing against Milwaukee. Through Boston's first three games of their series against the Bucks, Brown has shot 10-of-24 (or 41.6%) from three-point range. With the exception of Game 3 where Brown only converted one-of-five of his three-pointers, Brown hit at least three three-point field goals in Games 1 and 2. After a tough loss in Game 3, expect Brown to shoot better from downtown, and knock down at least three shots from deep tonight.
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