Klay Thompson, Golden State Warriors
Klay Thompson is coming off one of his signature Game 6 performances. Thompson dropped his second-highest point total of the postseason, punching Golden State's ticket to the Western Conference Finals after defeating the Memphis Grizzlies in six games. In the elimination game, Thompson led the team with 30 points (11-22 from the field and 8-14 from beyond the arc), eight boards, two assists, and three blocks. Considering the multitude of injuries he has fought back from and the adversity he has faced, it's quite amazing that the five-time All-Star has converted at least 50% of his three-point shots in three of his last four outings. He seems to be in great form entering this pivotal series with the Mavericks.
Dallas stunned the top-seeded Phoenix Suns and reigning Western Conference champs on the road in Game 7, 123-90, and earned a trip to the Western Conference Finals. Let's see if Thompson can remain scorching hot as Stephen Curry and the Dubs host Luka Doncic and the Dallas Mavericks in Game 1 of the Western Conference Finals tonight. Now, let's take a look at some of the best bets and player props to consider for tonight’s big matchup!
Please note that all odds and lines are from FanDuel Sportsbook and were accurate at 3:30 PM EST. Be sure to check for line movement or odd changes.
Best Bets of the Night
Bet #1: Golden State Warriors -5 (-110)
Following a tough loss in Game 5 to the Grizzlies despite Ja Morant’s absence from the lineup, the Warriors bounced back and closed the series at home in Game 6. They take on the Dallas Mavericks, who’ve been absolutely unbelievable on defense. Changes made to the Mavs’ rotation by Jason Kidd worked flawlessly against Chris Paul, Devin Booker, and the Suns in the previous round. One surprise for Dallas this postseason has been former New York Knicks lottery pick, Frank Ntilikina. He's a player who has stepped up immensely this postseason, especially on defense. Throughout the series, Ntilikina held Chris Paul and Devin Booker to a combined 3-of-40 shooting from the field when he guarded them.
It will be interesting to see if Jason Kidd keeps his minutes up, or perhaps increases them after what was truly an astonishing defensive performance against the Suns. Unfortunately for the Mavericks, the Golden State Warriors have four efficient scorers who will need to be contained. The Warriors will cover the spread tonight and win by more than five points on their home floor.
Bet #2: Over 214.5 Total Points (-110)
Dallas scored an impressive 123 points in Game 7, and they did so on the road. I expect them to reach at least 110 points in Game 1 of the Western Conference Finals. The Warriors shot on and off throughout their series against the Memphis Grizzlies. Nonetheless, they averaged 111 PPG in their series against Memphis (666 total points scored by the Warriors over six games). Both teams play a style of basketball that stresses ball movement to find an open man beyond the arc. When Dallas or Golden State shoot 40%-45% from the field, they can score in the hundreds because of the high volume of shots they take. Dallas started taking more shots and playing at a faster pace in the second half of their series against Phoenix. By the half in Game 7, Dallas was up 57-27. In the game, the Mavericks went 19-of-39 from downtown (48.9%). Even more impressive was Dallas’ 56.8% shooting from the field. Although the Warriors are one of the best defensive teams in the league, a 214.5-point Over / Under for tonight’s game is quite low. Smash the Over.
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NBA Player Props of the Night
Prop #1: Jordan Poole Over 1.5 Threes (-174)
Jordan Poole has finally cooled down after a stretch of three 20-point games against the Grizzlies. Over the last three contests, Poole has only hit two or more three-pointers in one contest. Over those last three games, he shot a combined 3-of-17 from downtown. While Poole has been highly inefficient over the last few games, he’ll hit at least two three-pointers in Game 1 tonight. The odds of this prop reflect how likely it is to happen. Although Poole isn't seeing as high a usage rate as when Curry and Thompson were injured during the regular season, Poole should still see plenty of open looks in the 25+ minutes he should log tonight. Given that Dallas will most likely try to stop Curry and Thompson from beating them, Poole should see a few wide-open looks. He will knock down at least two from deep range tonight.
Prop #2: Klay Thompson Over 20.5 Points (-112)
Klay Thompson has averaged just about 20.5 points since he came back this regular season. Throughout the postseason, he’s played strong and for the most part, been efficient from the field. Through 11 games in this postseason, Thompson is averaging 20.4 PPG on 45% shooting from the field. I like him to hit the over here in his first Western Conference Final matchup in three years. After getting his swagger back and dropping 30 points to eliminate the Grizzlies last round, Thompson should have all. the confidence in the world heading into Game 1 in the bay.
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Marcus Smart, Boston Celtics
While Jimmy Butler and the Miami Heat have had a few days off since taking out the Philadelphia 76ers, the Celtics only finished their seven-game series on Sunday. With Marcus Smart considered questionable for tonight's contest, the Celtics could struggle to steal Game 1 on the road against the Heat.
Tonight, Jayson Tatum and Jaylen Brown head to Miami to play Game 1 of a highly anticipated Eastern Conference series against the Miami Heat. Let's take a look at today's best bets and player props.
Please note that all odds and lines are from FanDuel Sportsbook and were accurate at 3:30 PM EST. Be sure to check for line movement or odd changes.
Best Bets Of The Night
Though the Heat comfortably won their series against the Philadelphia 76ers 4-2, bad offensive performances in consecutive games contributed to their losses. After eventually squeezing past Joel Embiid and the Sixers with back-to-back victories in Game 5 and Game 6, the Heat could struggle in Game 1 in front of their home fans.
Unfortunately for Miami, Kyle Lowry will be out for Game 1 of this series due to his ongoing hamstring injury. While he’s been able to create plays for the Heat, he has not played efficiently at any point throughout these playoffs. That said, Lowry hasn’t been healthy but Miami's success this postseason has largely been achieved without Lowry running the point. There is some concern for the Boston Celtics that they may be without Marcus Smart for Game 1, which could truly hurt them if that comes to fruition. In Game 7, Smart sustained a foot sprain, forcing the Celtics to list him as questionable yesterday afternoon.
Smart has been instrumental to Boston’s lockdown defense throughout the playoffs. If the Celtics are forced to suit up without Smart in Game 1 despite the return of Robert Williams, Boston will struggle to maintain Miami's top offensive weapons such as Jimmy Butler, Bam Adebayo, and Tyler Herro. Expect the Heat to take the first game of the Eastern Conference Finals comfortably if the Defensive Player of the Year is sidelined. If Smart is able to suit up, it's anyone's game.
Bet 1: Miami Heat, -2 (-110)
The Boston Celtics have scored at least 100 points in every game this postseason. They aren’t the concern as much as the Heat, who scored an atrocious 79 points against the 76ers in Game 3. Tonight should be a high-scoring affair. Though the Miami Heat conceded two games of their series against the Philadelphia 76ers due to abysmal offense, we know they are capable of scoring big. They put up 119 points in Game 2, and 120 points in Game 5. This could especially be the case if Marcus Smart is out of the Celtics’ rotation, which will hurt Boston’s defense. Even if he does play, he will likely be less efficient on the floor as a result of his foot sprain from Game 7 on Sunday.
Bet 2: Over 204 Total Points (-110)
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NBA Player Props of the Night
Prop #1: Grant Williams Over 8.5 Points
Grant Williams hit seven three-pointers in Game 7 against the Bucks. He attempted a whopping 18 threes, which might be more impressive and unexpected. Ime Udoka has kept him on the floor for big minutes throughout the postseason due to the energy he brings on both sides of the floor. He’s clearly capable of scoring but of also being physical on defense.
Prop #2: Victor Oladipo Over 9.5 Points
With Kyle Lowry out, Victor Oladipo will likely get 25+ minutes on the floor tonight in Game 1. He missed the vast majority of the regular season but returned in March and has been surprisingly efficient. Coach Erik Spoelstra has primarily found Oladipo effective as a ball-handler and scorer throughout the postseason while Lowry has been unhealthy. Oladipo has scored in double-figures in four of the last seven games and will log above-average minutes tonight in Game 1 with Gabe Vincent starting for Kyle Lowry and Dipo coming off the bench for meaningful minutes.
Prop #3: Bam Adebayo 15+ Pts / Miami To Win (+186)
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Jayson Tatum, Boston Celtics
This Sunday, we have two huge Conference Semifinal Game 7s on the schedule.
The Celtics won on the road in Game 6 off of Jayson Tatum’s heroics. As a result, the Bucks return to the TD Garden to face the Celtics at 3:30 PM EST. The Phoenix Suns and Dallas Mavericks have won all their home games and lost all their away games in their playoff series. The Mavs’ take on the Phoenix Suns on the road at 8:00 PM EST tonight. Let’s take a look at the best bets of today’s amazing NBA action. The stakes couldn’t be higher for each of these four teams.
Best Bets of the Night
Game: Milwaukee Bucks at Boston Celtics -5 (Series Tied 3-3)
Following a heart-wrenching loss at home in Game 5, the Celtics bounced back in Milwaukee in Game 6. The Bucks’ hopes of closing out the series at home were crushed by Celtics superstar Jayson Tatum who scored 46 points (17-32 FG).
Though Giannis scored 44 (14-30 FG), the Bucks lost Game 6 by 13 points. Boston’s defense held the Bucks to 40.9% shooting from the field and a disastrous 24.1% from downtown. The Bucks only converted seven of their 29 three-point attempts on Friday night. While Giannis Antetokounmpo, Pat Connaughton, and Jrue Holiday played well, they combined for 75 of the Bucks’ 95 total points. The rest of the team only combined for 20 points. Brook Lopez only saw 19 minutes on the floor to score 6 points. The Bucks’ opted to five Bobby Portis more minutes, yet he only scored four points on two-of-eight shooting. Though the Celtics’ as a team combined for a mediocre 43.7% shooting on the night, they hit 17 three-pointers which allowed them to easily outscore the highly inefficient Bucks in Game 6.
Expect the Bucks to play better Sunday afternoon. Still, Ime Udoka's defense has been highly successful against Milwaukee throughout the series. This Celtics’ team is playing with outstanding confidence fueled by the desire to reach the Eastern Conference Finals for the first time since 2018. With the home crowd’s support at the TD Garden tomorrow, Boston should take Game 7 by five or more points.
The Pick: Boston Celtics -5
Game: Dallas Mavericks at Phoenix Suns -6.5 (Series Tied 3-3)
The trend throughout this series has been winning comfortably at home. Each team has won all of their games at home and lost all of their games on the road. In Game 6, the Suns only scored 86 points and played abysmally. Phoenix got into foul trouble early, and finished with 27 personal fouls as a team. As a result, the Mavericks scored 27 points from 36 FT attempts in Game 6. The Suns also had 22 turnovers throughout the game, with 13 of them coming from Devin Booker (8 TOs) and Chris Paul (5 TOs). In contrast, the Mavericks only produced six turnovers throughout the contest. Game 6 was over by the third quarter.
The Suns will certainly play better in Game 7 as they look to secure another ticket to the Western Conference Finals. Nonetheless, this game will not end in a blowout. Expect the Mavericks to lose by six points or less on Sunday.
The Pick: Dallas Mavericks +6.5
NBA Player Props
Game: Dallas Mavericks at Phoenix Suns -6.5 (Series Tied 3-3)
Prop: Reggie Bullock, Over 9.5 Points
After going scoreless in Game 5, Reggie Bullock bounced back in Game 6 to score 19 points (7-15 FG). He knocked down five three-pointers in the game. Bullock has played a crucial role in the Mavericks’ success this postseason. He’ll step up again to easily hit 10+ points in this massive Game 7.
Prop: Devin Booker, Over 28.5 Points
D-Book only scored 19 points (6-17 FG) and shot very inefficiently from the field in Game 6. At home in a must-win Game 7, expect Booker to bounce back for 35+ points. He will be Phoenix’s main scorer.
Jayson Tatum, Boston Celtics (Left); Giannis Antetokounmpo (Right)
It’s Friday the 13th, and we have two Game 6s that could be thrillers.
Boston’s return to Milwaukee after a heartbreaking 110-107 loss to the Bucks in the TD Garden headlines tonight’s NBA action. Let’s take a look at some of tonight’s best NBA Playoff bets and player props.
Please Note: All odds and lines are from FanDuel Sportsbook and were accurate at 2:30 PM EST. Be sure to check for line movement or odd changes.
Best Bets of the Night
Game: Boston Celtics at Milwaukee Bucks -1.5 (MIL Leads 3-2)
In Game 5, it looked like Boston had done enough to secure the win. Milwaukee kept it close enough to make a push in the fourth quarter, and ultimately stun the Celtics in the TD Garden with a final score of 110-107. Both teams played good basketball on Wednesday night and an offensive rebound from a missed free throw converted into a field goal by Bobby Portis sealed the game.
Simply put, the Celtics collapsed in the fourth quarter. Boston shot better from the field (51.2 FG%) as a team than the Bucks (43.5 FG%) in Game 5. They also forced more turnovers and committed fewer fouls than the Bucks. On paper, the Celtics had a better game besides their three-point shooting. I want to suggest that the Bucks will close this series out at home, but the Celtics have fought hard to keep this series close and suffered a heartbreaking loss in Game 5. I'm hoping for the Celtics to bring it back home for a Game 7, so let's roll the dice on tonight's Boston Celtics moneyline.
The Pick: Boston Celtics ML +102
Game: Memphis Grizzlies at Golden State Warriors -8 (GSW Leads 3-2)
My prediction for Game 5 couldn’t have been further off. I’m sure many people lost their bets on Wednesday night as a result of the Warriors’ horrific game. Not one Warrior scored 20 points. The core three shooting group of Stephen Curry, Jordan Poole, and Klay Thompson actually combined to shoot worse than they did together in Game 4. Poole, Curry and Thompson combined for only 36 points, converting 11-of-28 shots taken from the field. Golden State’s bench didn’t shoot much better. Regardless, Memphis had one of the best offensive performances I’ve seen, especially without Ja Morant in the rotation. The Grizzlies scored 134 points on 47.5% shooting from the field. Jaren Jackson Jr., Tyus Jones, Desmond Bane, Brandon Clarke, and Kyle Anderson all shot 50% or above from the field Wednesday night.
While that was an impressive performance by Taylor Jenkins’ crew, it won’t happen in back-to-back games. After an embarrassing 39-point defeat on the road in Game 5, expect the Warriors to actually close the series out on a strong note with at least 60 points combined from Poole, Curry and Thompson in Game 6.
The Pick: Golden State Warriors -8 (-110)
NBA Player Props
Game: Memphis Grizzlies at Golden State Warriors -8.5 (GSW Leads 3-2)
Prop: Klay Thompson Over 21.5 Points
Klay Thompson has been on and off throughout the Grizzlies-Warriors Western Conference semifinals series. At home tonight, Golden State has a much better chance at ending the Grizzlies' surprisingly strong 2021-22 campaign than in Game 5. Expect Klay to have a strong scoring night and easily surpass 22 points on the night. He'll be hitting corner threes all night long.
Prop: Dillon Brooks Over 3.5 Assists
Although Dillon Brooks has shot poorly over the last two games, he’s dished out 12 assists through those contests. Brooks had eight assists in Game 4, and four assists in Game 5, both games which Ja Morant missed. With Ja out of the picture, Brooks has stepped up as a ball-handler for the Grizzlies and done his part in creating plays instead of trying to score while he’s been cold.
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