Detroit Lions v Green Bay Packers
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Week 7 kicked off as the Cleveland Browns somehow escaped a matchup with the Denver Broncos with a 17-14 victory despite the absence of Baker Mayfield, Nick Chubb, and Kareem Hunt.

I truly thought the Broncos' defense would stymie backup quarterback Case Keenum, but Keenum held his own as the Brown moved to 4-2 on the season.

As we approach the weekend, it's time to prepare for this week's edition of NFL best bets.

It takes a lot of energy and research to have success over the course of a season when it comes to sports betting. We went 4-1 in Week 5 but struggled in Week 6, converting just two of five picks. Let's do better in Week 7. Here at FantasySP, we are committed to helping you cash. Remember, if you win 55% of your bets, you are a really good gambler. We are looking at some eye-opening odds this week and will help you decipher the best games to place your money on, whether it's money lines, over-unders, or prop bets. With that, let's dive in.

WEEK 7 NFL BEST BETS 2021

Cincinnati Bengals at Baltimore Ravens (-6.5)

Heading into their Week 8 bye, the Ravens get their third consecutive home game after looking absolutely unstoppable in their 34-6 drubbing of the Los Angeles Chargers last week. Lamar Jackson barely had to throw the ball because Baltimore has such a commanding lead. In fact, the Ravens ran the ball a whopping 36 times and all three veteran running backs found the end zone: Devonta Freeman, Le'Veon Bell, and Latavius Murray. It's not going to be quite as easy this week against a division rival that is trending in the right direction. Cincinnati has one of the best trios of receivers in the game and Joe Burrow's chemistry with Ja'Marr Chase is undeniable. That said, Baltimore should have no problem winning this game by a touchdown.

The Pick: Ravens -6.5

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Washington Football Team at Green Bay Packers (-7.5)

Just like the 5-1 Ravens, Green Bay is another team that nobody wants to play right now. The Packers looked absolutely atrocious in their Week 1 loss to the New Orleans Saints, but since then, they have dominated each and every contest. Aaron Rodgers is performing like an MVP, Davante Adams looks like the best receiver in the league, and Aaron Jones continues to shine in this backfield. This group has won five in a row and Rodgers should be able to feast on a Washington defense that is proving itself to be nowhere close to what we saw last season. Considering this game is at home at Lambeau Field, I think Rodgers has no problem throwing for 300 yards and three touchdowns. I'm expecting a blowout as Taylor Heinicke and Terry McLaurin struggled to put up points against the subpar Chiefs defense in Week 6.

The Pick: Packers -7.5

Kansas City Chiefs at Tennessee Titans (+4.5)

As mentioned above, Washington was unable to score points against Kansas City's bottom-third defense in Week 6, but the Tennessee Titans have a lot more weapons than Washington. Ryan Tannehill got A.J. Brown and Julio Jones back from injuries and the Titans are coming off an emotional win in which they defeated Josh Allen and the Buffalo Bills as time expired on a fourth-down stop. Despite the fact that Tannehill will surely have success with Brown and Jones, the Titans' offense obviously runs through MVP frontrunner Derrick Henry. In fact, Henry's MVP odds are currently +4000 at DraftKings. If you are into future bets, I would lock that in.

Henry has eclipsed 100 yards in five consecutive games. Over that span, he is averaging 145 rushing yards per game and five yards per carry with a whopping 10 touchdowns. Meanwhile, Kansas City's defense is yielding 5.2 yards per carry and more than one rushing touchdown per game. The Chiefs rank dead last in rushing defense, which means Henry could very well go off in Week 7. In his last regular-season matchup with the Chiefs, King Henry capitalized, producing 8.2 yards per carry.

All that said, the Titans have been almost as bad as the Chiefs on the defensive side of the ball. They rank 27th in total DVOA defense and are allowing the sixth-most yards per catch and 28.8 points per game. Considering the Chiefs have the most high-powered offense in the league, nobody would be shocked if Kansas City put a 40 burger on the scoreboard. Tennessee has allowed a league-high 10 receiving touchdowns to wideouts and the Titans' secondary has no chance at stopping Tyreek Hill and Mecole Hardman due to their speed. Plus, you've got to watch out for Travis Kelce over the middle of the field. 2020 MVP Patrick Mahomes is averaging 335.7 passing yards per game and is completing 74.9% of his passes despite a 3-3 record. Not to mention, Kansas City is converting third downs at a 63.6% clip on the road this season.

This game has all the makings for an absolute shootout. If you are playing Daily Fantasy Sports, this is the game to double and triple stack.

The Pick: Over 56.5 points

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Carolina Panthers at New York Giants (+3)

Big Blue has been incredibly unlucky this season. Their offensive skill players have been absolutely decimated by injuries. Saquon Barkley is unlikely to suit up after twisting his ankle in Week 5 after stepping on a Cowboys defender's foot. Plus, Kenny Golladay and rookie sensation Kadarius Toney have already been ruled out. It looks like Sterling Shepard will play but Darius Slayton is looking like a true game-time decision. Daniel Jones was atrocious last week with so few offensive weapons at his disposal as he committed four turnovers (he only had one interception prior to Week 6, which was the biggest knock on him from critics prior to the season). Carolina ranks second in the NFL in DVOA pass defense and second in total DVOA defense, so it's going to be tough for the Giants to find the end zone. Kicker Graham Gano could be their high scorer!

On the other side of the ball, the Panthers are also shorthanded as Christian McCaffrey will not be back. Chubba Hubbard has filled in admirably, but he is definitely not CMC. Hubbard is averaging 4.5 yards per carry on the road this season and former New York Jets quarterback Sam Darnold has exceeded expectations in his first season in Carolina. Darnold is averaging 302.5 passing yards per game, as the Panthers have averaged 26 points per game on the road. After a tough overtime loss to the Vikings in Week 6, look for the Panthers to win this game fairly easily. It also doesn't help that Giants fans have been booing their home squad every chance they get. You can confidently place your money on the Panthers in this one.

The Pick: Panthers -3

Detroit Lions at Los Angeles Rams (-14.5)

We've got a revenge narrative here as Matthew Stafford was traded for Jared Goff during the offseason. Clearly, things have not panned out for the Lions, who are 0-6 heading into this tough matchup. Something tells me that Aaron Donald and Leonard Floyd are not going to take it easy on their former quarterback. The Detroit Lions have already allowed 14 sacks this season and are only averaging 16 points per game on the road. In fact, they were shut out through three quarters last Sunday and kicked a late field goal just to avoid a bagel.

Meanwhile, Matthew Stafford has been playing lights out and Cooper Kupp is looking like one of the best receivers in the NFL. Yes, this is a very large spread but I wouldn't be surprised if the Rams won this game by 20+ points.

The Pick: Rams -14.5

MY TWO FAVORITE WEEK 7 PROP BETS

Aaron Rodgers Over 251.5 Passing Yards:

Rodgers is averaging 260.6 passing YPG with 12 TDs and 1 pick over his last 5 games and has a 122.7 passer rating in 2 home games this season. He'll face a Washington team that is posting a disappointing 5.8% adjusted sack rate and ranks 28th in DVOA pass defense. Washington is yielding the second-most total YPG (431) and the most passing YPG (309.5) this year, so this is an extremely low prop for one of the best QBs in the game. As long as Taylor Heinicke keeps this contest moderately close – and he should be able to with Jaire Alexander (shoulder) out – Rodgers should top 260 passing yards easily.

Derrick Henry Under 126.5 Rushing Yards:

This is a bold call given how historically awful the Chiefs have been in rush defense this season. Yet the number is so high for Henry that he could fall well short of this total through no fault of his own if the Titans fall behind early. Tennessee's defense is equally terrible and this could be treated as a playoff game for a desperate KC squad. The Chiefs held Henry to 69 rushing yards and -8 receiving yards in the 2020 AFC Championship. They will have Chris Jones back to set the edge and should sell out to stop Henry.

Check out our Start / Sit tool to see which players to start in Week 7 at FantasySP!

Dak Prescott

Week 13 of the NFL season kicks off tomorrow night with the New Orleans Saints hosting the Dallas Cowboys at Caesars Superdome. The Cowboys opened as 5-point favorites, but after much of the early money was bet on the struggling New Orleans Saints, the spread has dropped to 4.5 points.

Both of these teams have recently fallen on hard times and are trending in the completely wrong direction. Despite winning a game with Dak Prescott injured, Dallas has lost three of their last four games since Prescott returned to the lineup. They are coming off a heartbreaking overtime loss on Thanksgiving to the Las Vegas Raiders. Meanwhile, after starting the season 5-2, the Saints have dropped four consecutive games with Trevor Siemian under center. It will be interesting to see how the Saints fare as their postseason chances are dwindling.

Betting on the NFL makes games even more exciting among fans. Monitoring public betting trends is one of the most pivotal tools used by professional handicappers to find the top wagers in the sports betting marketplace. Public betting trends allow you to track which teams the public is chasing and which teams professional gamblers are high on each and every week. Whether you want to tail or fade the public, knowing the public betting trends (bet percentages and money percentages) is pivotal when determining which teams to back. So without further ado, let’s take a look at who the public likes in Week 13’s Thursday Night Football matchup, and where you should place your wagers.

Note: The lines and public betting trends are always changing so be sure to check out FantasySP for the latest odds and trends.

Dallas Cowboys at New Orleans Saints (+4.5)

The Saints and Cowboys tend to play very competitive games against one another. In their last three meetings, each game has been decided by one possession. The Saints defeated the Cowboys the last time these two franchises met in 2019 (12-10). However, the Cowboys are clearly the superior team this season and are 7-3 against the spread in their last 10 games while the Saints are 4-6 against the spread over that same timeframe. So will Dallas snap their five-game losing streak on Thursday Night Football?

Although there were reports about Ezekiel Elliott being rested this week, Jerry Jones said he expects Zeke to be fed a sizable workload. It appears that although Tony Pollard will continue to get touches in this backfield, Elliott will serve as the lead-back in Week 13. The Cowboys’ offense has been very up and down over the last month. However, Dallas’ Thanksgiving day loss cannot be blamed on Prescott and the offense as they produced more than 400 yards and put 33 points up on the scoreboard. Plus, the Cowboys should get starting wide receivers Amari Cooper and CeeDee Lamb back from injury this week. Although the Saints have a solid defense, they did just allow Josh Allen and the Bills to post 36 points on Thanksgiving.

The Saints’ offense really struggled on Thanksgiving against the Bills. This was largely due to the absence of running backs, Alvin Kamara and Mark Ingram. Both backs are expected to return this week, and Taysom Hill is clearly an upgrade at the quarterback position over Siemian. However, New Orleans still lacks playmakers at the wide receiver and tight end position. With tight end Adam Trautman injured, the Saints will have to rely on Tre’Quan Smith and Deonte Harris to get open against the Cowboys’ 26th-ranked defense.

Dallas’ defense has some elite talents such as youngsters Micah Parson and Trevon Diggs, but they are still allowing opponents to gain close to 370 total yards of offense per game. But the Saints’ 27th-ranked offense will be a welcomed opponent for a defensive unit that just allowed Derek Carr to lead the Raiders to 36 points without the services of tight end Darren Waller.

Overall, both of these teams are looking to get back on track. The Cowboys have more wiggle room due to their 7-4 record and weak division, however, a loss could throw this team into complete chaos.

The public thinks that Dallas will cover the spread as 68% of the bets placed on the spread are backing Dallas and a whopping 75% of the money wagered has the Cowboys covering the 4.5-point spread. However, professional gamblers like the odds on the Saints upsetting the Cowboys outright. Despite 70% of moneyline bets being on the Cowboys, 53% of the money is on the Saints. I’m following the smart money here and tailing the sharps. While I’m not quite comfortable taking the Saints outright, I think they have enough talent on both sides of the ball to keep this game close. I’m also going with the “smart money” on the over/under. While only 56% of bets are on the over, an eye-popping 78% of the money expects this game to exceed the 47.5-point total.

Picks: Saints (+4.5) and Over 47.5 points

Prediction: 27-24 Cowboys

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2020 Fantasy Running Back Primer
Matthew Emmons/USA Today Sports

While many Americans will be preparing for Black Friday, perhaps just as many will be betting on the three NFL games on Thanksgiving. The Chicago Bears will be facing the winless Detroit Lions, the Raiders travel to Jerry World to take on the Dallas Cowboys, and the Buffalo Bills face the New Orleans Saints at the Superdome.

Some of you may be sick of the Lions playing on Thanksgiving, and it's understandable considering they have yet to win a game this season. And if you aren't a huge fan of your family at the dinner table, saying that you need to go watch the Lions game to avoid a conversation about what you're grateful for or politics isn't a great excuse. However, if you place a wager on the game, that's the only excuse you need.

Last week, by looking at the public betting trends, we nailed all three of our recommended bets, including a bonus bet. Monitoring public betting trends is one of the most pivotal tools used by professional handicappers to find the top wagers in the sports betting marketplace. Public betting trends allow you to track which teams the public is chasing and which teams professional gamblers are high on each and every week.

Whether you want to tail or fade the public, knowing the public betting trends (bet percentages and money percentages) is pivotal when determining which teams to back. So without further ado, let's take a look at the public betting trends for the three games on Thanksgiving.

Note: The lines and public betting trends are always changing so be sure to check out FantasySP for the latest odds and trends.

Thanksgiving Day Public Betting Trends

Chicago Bears at Detroit Lions (+3)

Although the Bears are just 1-4 against the spread in their last five games, they have won a whopping eight of their last nine games as the favorite. Meanwhile, Detroit is 0-13-1 straight up in their last 14 games as underdogs with an average defeat of 13.07 points.

The spread was originally 3.5 points but it dropped to 3 points with Justin Fields looking doubtful for the first game on Thanksgiving day. Andy Dalton will take over as the starter and he actually looked fairly good in Chicago's close loss to the Baltimore Ravens in Week 11. But the Bears aren't the only team that may be missing their starting quarterback. After missing Week 11 with an oblique injury, Tim Boyle will reportedly start for the Lions. Detroit is dealing with several other injuries outside of Goff on the offensive side of the ball. The Lions are now missing three starting offensive linemen and they don't have any noteworthy receivers. D'Andre Swift and T.J. Hockenson should see a ton of touches on Thursday. However, Chicago is dealing with many injuries of their own in addition to Fields. Allen Robinson is highly questionable with a hamstring injury, meaning Darnell Mooney will continue to be peppered with targets. Marquise Goodwin could also see more snaps if A-Rob is unable to suit up. Plus, a defense that looked pretty scary at the beginning of the season will be missing All-Pro pass rusher Khalil Mack, who is out for the season, and Akiem Nicks and Eddie Jackson may not be active on a short week after missing Week 11.

Both teams have underperformed this season but the Lions have been atrocious on Thanksgiving in recent years. Favorites playing on the road at Ford Field are 10-2 against the spread on Thanksgiving. Plus, the Bears have won six of their last seven games against Detroit, including two games on Thanksgiving.

A common strategy in sports betting is fading the public, which is exactly what I'd recommend in this clash between two terrible teams. Although 92% of the money line bets are on the Lions, I expect the Bears to win this game fairly comfortably now that David Montgomery is at full strength. And I actually think Chicago might be better with Dalton under center. And even though 72% of the money on the spread favors Detroit, I just can't imagine Tim Boyle keeping this game within a field goal. This is the ideal spot to make a contrarian wager.

Pick(s): Bears ML and Bears (-3)

Prediction: 23-14 Bears

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Las Vegas Raiders at Dallas Cowboys (-7)

Dallas is coming off their worst performance of the season after getting absolutely shut down by the Kansas City Chiefs. However, Dallas is 8-2 against the spread this season, 6-1 against the spread in it's last seven home games, and the Raiders have lost all three games this season against teams with winning records by an average deficit of 17.67 points. After starting the season 5-2, the Raiders have lost three consecutive games and have not looked good at all during that span. They were upset by a 3-7 Giants team, were manhandled to the tune of 41-14 against the Chiefs, and most recently lost 32-13 against the Cincinnati Bengals. Vegas has only scored 43 points over that three-game span. The Raiders offense just doesn't look very good and Derek Carr has really struggled to get tight end Darren Waller involved.

Although the Cowboys will be without Amari Cooper for the second consecutive week, CeeDee Lamb is on track to play after exiting the Cowboys' Week 11 loss to the Chiefs with a concussion.

https://twitter.com/jonmachota/status/1463543514025844744

This looks like a bounce-back game for Dak Prescott and the Cowboys' offense. The Raiders are tied with the Jaguars with the seventh-most points allowed per game this season (26.2 points). Although the Bears-Lions game will most likely be a low-scoring affair, I'm expecting tons of points in this matchup. Despite just 52% of bets being placed on the over, 63% of the money wagered is on this game eclipsing the 51.5-point total. The "smart money" is on the over in this game. Not only are Prescott and Lamb going to dominate the Raiders' secondary, but Ezekiel Elliott is going to have a massive game against a Raiders front seven that allows over 100 rushing yards and 1.2 touchdowns per game to opposing running backs, equaling the seventh-most fantasy points allowed per game to running backs.

Some bettors might be a bit reluctant to lay the seven points with the Cowboys, but I'm expecting a high-scoring blowout on Thanksgiving.

Pick(s): Over 51.5 points and Cowboys (-7)

Prediction: 34-20 Cowboys

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Buffalo Bills at New Orleans Saints (+6)

Recent trends suggest that the Saints are going to cover the spread in this game. The Bills are just 1-3-1 against the spread in their last five contests while New Orleans is 9-1-1 against the spread in their last 11 games as the underdog. Not to mention, the Saints have won five consecutive games against Buffalo by an average of 21 points and they have covered the spread in each of those matchups.

Although 68% of bets on the spread are backing the Bills, 52% of the money is backing New Orleans. While I expect the Bills to narrowly escape with a victory, I think the Saints will play this game down to the wire, especially with Alvin Kamara expected to be back in the lineup.

Buffalo has been incredibly unpredictable this season. They have terrible losses to the Jacksonville Jaguars and Indianapolis Colts, but they have also put up some huge point totals in other contests. Buffalo has lost three of their last five games and Josh Allen has thrown six interceptions during that span. It's hard to know which Bills team will show up on Thanksgiving. I don't think that Allen and the Bills will struggle as they did last week, but this won't be an easy task against one of the elite defenses in the NFL. The Saints allow the 10th-fewest points and 10th-fewest yards per game this season. Meanwhile, the Bills allow the fewest yards per game and the second-fewest points per game. This game has the under written all over it, especially since despite only 34% of bets being placed on the under, 54% of the money is anticipating this game to not exceed the 45.5-point total. Don't forget that Thanksgiving night games have gone under in 10-of-14 seasons, including six straight. I expect this to be a defensive battle, with the Bills winning on a last-second field goal, failing to cover the spread.

Pick(s): Under 45.5 points and Saints (+6)

Prediction: 20-17 Bills

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