Detroit Lions v Green Bay Packers
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Week 7 kicked off as the Cleveland Browns somehow escaped a matchup with the Denver Broncos with a 17-14 victory despite the absence of Baker Mayfield, Nick Chubb, and Kareem Hunt.

I truly thought the Broncos' defense would stymie backup quarterback Case Keenum, but Keenum held his own as the Brown moved to 4-2 on the season.

As we approach the weekend, it's time to prepare for this week's edition of NFL best bets.

It takes a lot of energy and research to have success over the course of a season when it comes to sports betting. We went 4-1 in Week 5 but struggled in Week 6, converting just two of five picks. Let's do better in Week 7. Here at FantasySP, we are committed to helping you cash. Remember, if you win 55% of your bets, you are a really good gambler. We are looking at some eye-opening odds this week and will help you decipher the best games to place your money on, whether it's money lines, over-unders, or prop bets. With that, let's dive in.

WEEK 7 NFL BEST BETS 2021

Cincinnati Bengals at Baltimore Ravens (-6.5)

Heading into their Week 8 bye, the Ravens get their third consecutive home game after looking absolutely unstoppable in their 34-6 drubbing of the Los Angeles Chargers last week. Lamar Jackson barely had to throw the ball because Baltimore has such a commanding lead. In fact, the Ravens ran the ball a whopping 36 times and all three veteran running backs found the end zone: Devonta Freeman, Le'Veon Bell, and Latavius Murray. It's not going to be quite as easy this week against a division rival that is trending in the right direction. Cincinnati has one of the best trios of receivers in the game and Joe Burrow's chemistry with Ja'Marr Chase is undeniable. That said, Baltimore should have no problem winning this game by a touchdown.

The Pick: Ravens -6.5

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Washington Football Team at Green Bay Packers (-7.5)

Just like the 5-1 Ravens, Green Bay is another team that nobody wants to play right now. The Packers looked absolutely atrocious in their Week 1 loss to the New Orleans Saints, but since then, they have dominated each and every contest. Aaron Rodgers is performing like an MVP, Davante Adams looks like the best receiver in the league, and Aaron Jones continues to shine in this backfield. This group has won five in a row and Rodgers should be able to feast on a Washington defense that is proving itself to be nowhere close to what we saw last season. Considering this game is at home at Lambeau Field, I think Rodgers has no problem throwing for 300 yards and three touchdowns. I'm expecting a blowout as Taylor Heinicke and Terry McLaurin struggled to put up points against the subpar Chiefs defense in Week 6.

The Pick: Packers -7.5

Kansas City Chiefs at Tennessee Titans (+4.5)

As mentioned above, Washington was unable to score points against Kansas City's bottom-third defense in Week 6, but the Tennessee Titans have a lot more weapons than Washington. Ryan Tannehill got A.J. Brown and Julio Jones back from injuries and the Titans are coming off an emotional win in which they defeated Josh Allen and the Buffalo Bills as time expired on a fourth-down stop. Despite the fact that Tannehill will surely have success with Brown and Jones, the Titans' offense obviously runs through MVP frontrunner Derrick Henry. In fact, Henry's MVP odds are currently +4000 at DraftKings. If you are into future bets, I would lock that in.

Henry has eclipsed 100 yards in five consecutive games. Over that span, he is averaging 145 rushing yards per game and five yards per carry with a whopping 10 touchdowns. Meanwhile, Kansas City's defense is yielding 5.2 yards per carry and more than one rushing touchdown per game. The Chiefs rank dead last in rushing defense, which means Henry could very well go off in Week 7. In his last regular-season matchup with the Chiefs, King Henry capitalized, producing 8.2 yards per carry.

All that said, the Titans have been almost as bad as the Chiefs on the defensive side of the ball. They rank 27th in total DVOA defense and are allowing the sixth-most yards per catch and 28.8 points per game. Considering the Chiefs have the most high-powered offense in the league, nobody would be shocked if Kansas City put a 40 burger on the scoreboard. Tennessee has allowed a league-high 10 receiving touchdowns to wideouts and the Titans' secondary has no chance at stopping Tyreek Hill and Mecole Hardman due to their speed. Plus, you've got to watch out for Travis Kelce over the middle of the field. 2020 MVP Patrick Mahomes is averaging 335.7 passing yards per game and is completing 74.9% of his passes despite a 3-3 record. Not to mention, Kansas City is converting third downs at a 63.6% clip on the road this season.

This game has all the makings for an absolute shootout. If you are playing Daily Fantasy Sports, this is the game to double and triple stack.

The Pick: Over 56.5 points

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Carolina Panthers at New York Giants (+3)

Big Blue has been incredibly unlucky this season. Their offensive skill players have been absolutely decimated by injuries. Saquon Barkley is unlikely to suit up after twisting his ankle in Week 5 after stepping on a Cowboys defender's foot. Plus, Kenny Golladay and rookie sensation Kadarius Toney have already been ruled out. It looks like Sterling Shepard will play but Darius Slayton is looking like a true game-time decision. Daniel Jones was atrocious last week with so few offensive weapons at his disposal as he committed four turnovers (he only had one interception prior to Week 6, which was the biggest knock on him from critics prior to the season). Carolina ranks second in the NFL in DVOA pass defense and second in total DVOA defense, so it's going to be tough for the Giants to find the end zone. Kicker Graham Gano could be their high scorer!

On the other side of the ball, the Panthers are also shorthanded as Christian McCaffrey will not be back. Chubba Hubbard has filled in admirably, but he is definitely not CMC. Hubbard is averaging 4.5 yards per carry on the road this season and former New York Jets quarterback Sam Darnold has exceeded expectations in his first season in Carolina. Darnold is averaging 302.5 passing yards per game, as the Panthers have averaged 26 points per game on the road. After a tough overtime loss to the Vikings in Week 6, look for the Panthers to win this game fairly easily. It also doesn't help that Giants fans have been booing their home squad every chance they get. You can confidently place your money on the Panthers in this one.

The Pick: Panthers -3

Detroit Lions at Los Angeles Rams (-14.5)

We've got a revenge narrative here as Matthew Stafford was traded for Jared Goff during the offseason. Clearly, things have not panned out for the Lions, who are 0-6 heading into this tough matchup. Something tells me that Aaron Donald and Leonard Floyd are not going to take it easy on their former quarterback. The Detroit Lions have already allowed 14 sacks this season and are only averaging 16 points per game on the road. In fact, they were shut out through three quarters last Sunday and kicked a late field goal just to avoid a bagel.

Meanwhile, Matthew Stafford has been playing lights out and Cooper Kupp is looking like one of the best receivers in the NFL. Yes, this is a very large spread but I wouldn't be surprised if the Rams won this game by 20+ points.

The Pick: Rams -14.5

MY TWO FAVORITE WEEK 7 PROP BETS

Aaron Rodgers Over 251.5 Passing Yards:

Rodgers is averaging 260.6 passing YPG with 12 TDs and 1 pick over his last 5 games and has a 122.7 passer rating in 2 home games this season. He'll face a Washington team that is posting a disappointing 5.8% adjusted sack rate and ranks 28th in DVOA pass defense. Washington is yielding the second-most total YPG (431) and the most passing YPG (309.5) this year, so this is an extremely low prop for one of the best QBs in the game. As long as Taylor Heinicke keeps this contest moderately close – and he should be able to with Jaire Alexander (shoulder) out – Rodgers should top 260 passing yards easily.

Derrick Henry Under 126.5 Rushing Yards:

This is a bold call given how historically awful the Chiefs have been in rush defense this season. Yet the number is so high for Henry that he could fall well short of this total through no fault of his own if the Titans fall behind early. Tennessee's defense is equally terrible and this could be treated as a playoff game for a desperate KC squad. The Chiefs held Henry to 69 rushing yards and -8 receiving yards in the 2020 AFC Championship. They will have Chris Jones back to set the edge and should sell out to stop Henry.

Check out our Start / Sit tool to see which players to start in Week 7 at FantasySP!

Jaylen Brown, Boston Celtics

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Miami conceded Game 5 of the Eastern Conference Finals to the Boston Celtics at home. Tonight, they will look to close the series out back in the TD Garden. Jaylen Brown and Jayson Tatum have continued to play phenomenal basketball throughout this series. Miami’s injury struggles have affected Tyler Herro specifically for this series, and Kyle Lowry for the entirety of the postseason.

While the Celtics undoubtedly have the upper hand heading into tonight’s game and likely have cemented the series, they will be facing off against a desperation mode squad for the Heat that will shoot better than they did in Game 5. Let's take a look at tonight's best NBA Playoff Bets and props.

Please note that all odds and lines are from FanDuel Sportsbook and were accurate at 2:30 PM EST. Be sure to check for line movement or odd changes.

Best Bets of the Night

Game: Miami Heat at Boston Celtics -8.5 (BOS Leads 3-2)

Bet 1: Boston Celtics -8.5 (-110)

While the Heat are likely going to lose on the road in Game 6, they will look to keep things interesting tonight. They could lose by eight points and you’d still come out on top. Based on that fact alone, they will play with a desperation factor. The Heat once again have a long list of players listed as questionable for tonight’s game. This includes Tyler Herro, Kyle Lowry, PJ Tucker, Max Struss and Gabe Vincent. In Game 5, both teams could have shot better. Miami truly had an abysmal night shooting from the field. On Wednesday night, they only converted 31.9 % from the field and a brutal 15.6% from downtown. Miami’s current roster depth among available guards is simply abysmal. While Marcus Smart and Robert Williams are listed as questionable for the Boston Celtics, they have too much upside over the Heat heading into tonight’s Game 6 at the TD Garden.

Bet 2: Over 201 Total Points (-110)

Despite a very low-scoring contest in Game 5 where only 173 total points were scored (BOS 93 - 80 MIA), the desperation factor for the Heat will push them to shoot quicker and better than they did in Game 5. Miami only converted 30-of-94 field goals as a team and an abysmal 7-of-45 shooting from downtown. Miami quite simply had a miserable outing in Game 5, they will lose tonight, but they really couldn’t score any less than 80 points. Although Boston should win tonight's matchup by double-digit points, the Heat will shoot better and maintain a high volume of shots attempted. They should score 95-100 points tonight.

NBA Props of the Night

Game: Miami Heat at Boston Celtics -8.5 (BOS Leads 3-2)

Prop: Al Horford 10+ Points & Boston to Win (+106)

We’ve already discussed why Boston is the heavy favorite for tonight’s game. With Robert Williams currently listed as questionable heading into tonight, Al Horford is ready to go. Even if Robert Williams plays tonight, he might not be as healthy as he needs to be. As a result, expect Al Horford to get more looks from the field and score at least 10 points at home in tonight’s crucial Game 6.

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Klay Thompson, Golden State Warriors
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After three consecutive victories, the Golden State Warriors conceded Game 4 of the Western Conference Finals to the Dallas Mavericks. In Game 5, the Warriors will look to close out Luka Doncic and the Mavs in front of the home crowd. As a team, the Warriors were efficient from the field, converting 48.8% of their shots taken. One of the main reasons Golden State lost was a result of poor free-throw shooting. The Warriors missed nine of their 27 free throws on Tuesday night (65.4 FT%). In comparison, the Mavericks were full-throttle in Game 4 facing elimination. Dallas’ Reggie Bullock (18 PTS) and Dorian Finney Smith (23 PTS) combined for 42 points, adding to Luka’s 30.

Ultimately, no team has ever come back from a 3-0 lead in the playoffs, meaning that the Warriors will almost certainly be heading back to the NBA Finals. Let’s take a look at what the best bets are for tonight’s Game 5.

Please note that all odds and lines are from FanDuel Sportsbook and were accurate at 2:00 PM EST. Be sure to check for line movement or odd changes.

Best Bets of the Night

Game: Dallas Mavericks at Golden State Warriors -6.5 (GSW Leads 3-1)

Bet #1: Dallas Mavericks, +6.5 (-110)

We like Dallas to keep it close. Perhaps Dallas has a 10-point lead going into the third quarter which the Warriors could then overtake in the second half. Regardless of the scenario, the Mavericks won against a Warriors team that still put up 109 points in Game 4 on close to 50% shooting from the field. Dallas shot above 50% from the field in Game 4 and took many shots to get there just like they did in Game 7 of the Western Conference Semis against the Phoenix Suns. Even Jalen Brunson said in the post-game interview with the guys from Inside the NBA that his team needs to "take it one game at a time (...) like four Game 7s."

While the Warriors are in it to win it tonight, the Mavericks seem to perform best when facing elimination this 2022 postseason. While they might lose tonight, the Mavericks seem to play well under pressure. As a result, take them +7 tonight as the Warriors will have a bigger challenge on their hands than they anticipate.

Bet #2: Over 215.5 Total Points (-110)

In two of the series’ four games, both teams combined for at least 220 points. In Game 2, 243 points were scored while in Game 4, there were 228 points tallied. The Mavericks shoot more when facing elimination. This has been a trend we have seen throughout the postseason. In Game 7 of the Western Conference Semis, the Mavericks scored 123 points while in Game 4 against the Warriors on Tuesday, Dallas scored 119 points. Not much more needs to be said about the Warriors’ high-power offense that will likely outscore Dallas regardless of how many points they get on the board.

NBA Player Props of the Night

Game: Dallas Mavericks at Golden State Warriors -6.5 (GSW Leads 3-1)

Prop #1: Dorian Finney-Smith Over 11.5 Points

Dorian Finney-Smith erupted for 23 points in Game 4 to help the Mavericks rally past the Warriors. Throughout the 2022 playoffs, he’s averaged 11.6 PPG shooting 46.5% from the field. He’s also seeing 38.2 minutes per contest this postseason. Expect Finney-Smith to score at least 12 points tonight after his 23-points in Game 4.

Prop #2: Klay Thompson Over 18.5 Points

Klay Thompson was held to 12 points scored in Game 4. Despite going 5-of-10 from the field, Klay was limited by Dallas on defense in 28 minutes on the floor on Tuesday night. He should definitely be taking more shots tonight and perform better overall being back home for a Game 5. Thompson should easily hit at least 20+ points tonight, and take a handful more shots from the field in this contest than in Tuesday’s.

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Stephen Curry, Golden State Warriors

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In Game 3 of the Eastern Conference Finals, Bam Adebayo's 31-point and 10-rebound double-double led the Miami Heat to a 109-103 victory over the Celtics on the road. That was followed by a dominant second-half performance by Stephen Curry and Andrew Wiggins who led the Warriors to a 3-0 lead in the Western Conference Finals.

Tonight, we'll get the first of these two matchups. Boston will look to come back in their second home game against a Heat team that is clearly not at 100% healthy. Tyler Herro has been ruled out for Game 4 while Kyle Lowry remains questionable. Here are some of the best bets for tonight's and tomorrow's big Game 4s.

Please note that all odds and lines are from FanDuel Sportsbook and were accurate at 3:30 PM EST. Be sure to check for line movement or odd changes.

ECF Game 4: Miami Heat at Boston Celtics -7 (MIA Leads 2-1)

In Game 4, the Celtics rallied back from double-digits to make things interesting in the fourth quarter. However, Boston conceded Game 3 to the Miami Heat 109-103. On Sunday, Bam Adebayo was getting everything he wanted down low. He finished with 31 points, 10 boards, six assists, four steals, and one block. Ime Udoka will need to boost the presence of his big men down low, perhaps by extending Daniel Theis’ minutes or having him share the floor more with Al Horford. The major reason for which the Heat are considered the seven-point underdogs for tonight’s game is injuries. Tyler Herro has already been ruled out for Game 4, and the Heat have four or five other players in their lineup currently listed as questionable. This includes Max Struss, Kyle Lowry, Jimmy Butler, and P.J. Tucker. Butler is dealing with knee inflammation which sidelined him for the second half of Game 3.

Even if all of the players in the Heat’s rotation are good to go tonight (outside of Herro), Boston has not lost back-to-back home games since late October. Plus, Jaylen Brown is shooting much better than he did earlier in the postseason. In fact, he’s elevated his shooting to 50% from the field through the 2021-22 playoffs through 14 games played. Expect Boston to bounce back big in Game 4, with multiple players on the Miami Heat not at full strength.

The Pick: Boston Celtics -7 (-110)

WCF Game 4: Golden State Warriors at Dallas Mavericks -1 (GSW Leads 3-0)

Well, it’s looking like the Golden State Warriors are returning to the NBA Finals. With the emergence of Jordan Poole late this season and into the postseason, Andrew Wiggins’ First-Team All-Star season, and Klay Thompson’s return to basketball, Golden State has been simply phenomenal. Golden State is simply that good this year, with anyone on the team capable of stepping up. Stephen Curry erupted in Game 3, while it was Andrew Wiggins that caught fire in the second half of Game 4. Any given night, the Warriors have one or two guys who they can count on for scoring approximately 25+ points. Considering the Mavericks' struggles this round, particularly behind the three-point line, bettors should go with the Warriors as the slight underdog. Teams get swept sometimes. Just ask the Brooklyn Nets. The Warriors will bring out the brooms and sweep the Mavericks as they punch their ticket to the NBA Finals Tuesday night.

The Pick: Golden State Warriors ML -104

NBA Player Props

Golden State Warriors at Dallas Mavericks -1 (GSW Leads 3-0)

Prop #1: Stephen Curry, Over 27.5 Points

Stephen Curry has scored 31 points and 32 points over the last two games. He’s done so by converting at least 50% from the field in each contest. It makes sense that he would score at least 28 points in a series-clinching victory tomorrow night. Curry is averaging 27.1 PPG on 45.9% this postseason but has certainly put up more points and done so more efficiently over the last few games.

Prop #2: Luka Doncic, Over 3.5 Threes

Luka has drained nine three-pointers over the last two games. He’s knocked down at least four threes in three of his last four contests. Facing elimination and hoping to not let down the home crowd in back-to-back home playoff games, Doncic will convert at least four baskets from downtown in Game 4.

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