Will the Green Bay Packers cover the spread against Washington? Will Aaron Rodgers hit the over on his passing yardage prop?
Week 7 kicked off as the Cleveland Browns somehow escaped a matchup with the Denver Broncos with a 17-14 victory despite the absence of Baker Mayfield, Nick Chubb, and Kareem Hunt.
I truly thought the Broncos' defense would stymie backup quarterback Case Keenum, but Keenum held his own as the Brown moved to 4-2 on the season.
As we approach the weekend, it's time to prepare for this week's edition of NFL best bets.
It takes a lot of energy and research to have success over the course of a season when it comes to sports betting. We went 4-1 in Week 5 but struggled in Week 6, converting just two of five picks. Let's do better in Week 7. Here at FantasySP, we are committed to helping you cash. Remember, if you win 55% of your bets, you are a really good gambler. We are looking at some eye-opening odds this week and will help you decipher the best games to place your money on, whether it's money lines, over-unders, or prop bets. With that, let's dive in.
WEEK 7 NFL BEST BETS 2021
Heading into their Week 8 bye, the Ravens get their third consecutive home game after looking absolutely unstoppable in their 34-6 drubbing of the Los Angeles Chargers last week. Lamar Jackson barely had to throw the ball because Baltimore has such a commanding lead. In fact, the Ravens ran the ball a whopping 36 times and all three veteran running backs found the end zone: Devonta Freeman, Le'Veon Bell, and Latavius Murray. It's not going to be quite as easy this week against a division rival that is trending in the right direction. Cincinnati has one of the best trios of receivers in the game and Joe Burrow's chemistry with Ja'Marr Chase is undeniable. That said, Baltimore should have no problem winning this game by a touchdown.
The Pick: Ravens -6.5
Just like the 5-1 Ravens, Green Bay is another team that nobody wants to play right now. The Packers looked absolutely atrocious in their Week 1 loss to the New Orleans Saints, but since then, they have dominated each and every contest. Aaron Rodgers is performing like an MVP, Davante Adams looks like the best receiver in the league, and Aaron Jones continues to shine in this backfield. This group has won five in a row and Rodgers should be able to feast on a Washington defense that is proving itself to be nowhere close to what we saw last season. Considering this game is at home at Lambeau Field, I think Rodgers has no problem throwing for 300 yards and three touchdowns. I'm expecting a blowout as Taylor Heinicke and Terry McLaurin struggled to put up points against the subpar Chiefs defense in Week 6.
The Pick: Packers -7.5
As mentioned above, Washington was unable to score points against Kansas City's bottom-third defense in Week 6, but the Tennessee Titans have a lot more weapons than Washington. Ryan Tannehill got A.J. Brown and Julio Jones back from injuries and the Titans are coming off an emotional win in which they defeated Josh Allen and the Buffalo Bills as time expired on a fourth-down stop. Despite the fact that Tannehill will surely have success with Brown and Jones, the Titans' offense obviously runs through MVP frontrunner Derrick Henry. In fact, Henry's MVP odds are currently +4000 at DraftKings. If you are into future bets, I would lock that in.
Henry has eclipsed 100 yards in five consecutive games. Over that span, he is averaging 145 rushing yards per game and five yards per carry with a whopping 10 touchdowns. Meanwhile, Kansas City's defense is yielding 5.2 yards per carry and more than one rushing touchdown per game. The Chiefs rank dead last in rushing defense, which means Henry could very well go off in Week 7. In his last regular-season matchup with the Chiefs, King Henry capitalized, producing 8.2 yards per carry.
All that said, the Titans have been almost as bad as the Chiefs on the defensive side of the ball. They rank 27th in total DVOA defense and are allowing the sixth-most yards per catch and 28.8 points per game. Considering the Chiefs have the most high-powered offense in the league, nobody would be shocked if Kansas City put a 40 burger on the scoreboard. Tennessee has allowed a league-high 10 receiving touchdowns to wideouts and the Titans' secondary has no chance at stopping Tyreek Hill and Mecole Hardman due to their speed. Plus, you've got to watch out for Travis Kelce over the middle of the field. 2020 MVP Patrick Mahomes is averaging 335.7 passing yards per game and is completing 74.9% of his passes despite a 3-3 record. Not to mention, Kansas City is converting third downs at a 63.6% clip on the road this season.
This game has all the makings for an absolute shootout. If you are playing Daily Fantasy Sports, this is the game to double and triple stack.
The Pick: Over 56.5 points
Big Blue has been incredibly unlucky this season. Their offensive skill players have been absolutely decimated by injuries. Saquon Barkley is unlikely to suit up after twisting his ankle in Week 5 after stepping on a Cowboys defender's foot. Plus, Kenny Golladay and rookie sensation Kadarius Toney have already been ruled out. It looks like Sterling Shepard will play but Darius Slayton is looking like a true game-time decision. Daniel Jones was atrocious last week with so few offensive weapons at his disposal as he committed four turnovers (he only had one interception prior to Week 6, which was the biggest knock on him from critics prior to the season). Carolina ranks second in the NFL in DVOA pass defense and second in total DVOA defense, so it's going to be tough for the Giants to find the end zone. Kicker Graham Gano could be their high scorer!
On the other side of the ball, the Panthers are also shorthanded as Christian McCaffrey will not be back. Chubba Hubbard has filled in admirably, but he is definitely not CMC. Hubbard is averaging 4.5 yards per carry on the road this season and former New York Jets quarterback Sam Darnold has exceeded expectations in his first season in Carolina. Darnold is averaging 302.5 passing yards per game, as the Panthers have averaged 26 points per game on the road. After a tough overtime loss to the Vikings in Week 6, look for the Panthers to win this game fairly easily. It also doesn't help that Giants fans have been booing their home squad every chance they get. You can confidently place your money on the Panthers in this one.
The Pick: Panthers -3
We've got a revenge narrative here as Matthew Stafford was traded for Jared Goff during the offseason. Clearly, things have not panned out for the Lions, who are 0-6 heading into this tough matchup. Something tells me that Aaron Donald and Leonard Floyd are not going to take it easy on their former quarterback. The Detroit Lions have already allowed 14 sacks this season and are only averaging 16 points per game on the road. In fact, they were shut out through three quarters last Sunday and kicked a late field goal just to avoid a bagel.
Meanwhile, Matthew Stafford has been playing lights out and Cooper Kupp is looking like one of the best receivers in the NFL. Yes, this is a very large spread but I wouldn't be surprised if the Rams won this game by 20+ points.
The Pick: Rams -14.5
MY TWO FAVORITE WEEK 7 PROP BETS
Aaron Rodgers Over 251.5 Passing Yards:
Rodgers is averaging 260.6 passing YPG with 12 TDs and 1 pick over his last 5 games and has a 122.7 passer rating in 2 home games this season. He'll face a Washington team that is posting a disappointing 5.8% adjusted sack rate and ranks 28th in DVOA pass defense. Washington is yielding the second-most total YPG (431) and the most passing YPG (309.5) this year, so this is an extremely low prop for one of the best QBs in the game. As long as Taylor Heinicke keeps this contest moderately close – and he should be able to with Jaire Alexander (shoulder) out – Rodgers should top 260 passing yards easily.
Derrick Henry Under 126.5 Rushing Yards:
This is a bold call given how historically awful the Chiefs have been in rush defense this season. Yet the number is so high for Henry that he could fall well short of this total through no fault of his own if the Titans fall behind early. Tennessee's defense is equally terrible and this could be treated as a playoff game for a desperate KC squad. The Chiefs held Henry to 69 rushing yards and -8 receiving yards in the 2020 AFC Championship. They will have Chris Jones back to set the edge and should sell out to stop Henry.
Even though Thanksgiving is going to look different around the country this year, at least we still have the NFL to give us a small semblance of normalcy.
The first two games of the day might leave a little to be desired since they feature four teams with losing records, but at least the nightcap should give us a hotly contested rivalry that always finds ways to deliver.
Houston Texans (-3) v. Detroit Lions - 12:30 PM EST - CBS
Houston enters Thursday's game having won two of their last three games. Last week the Texans beat the New England Patriots 27-20, giving Houston their first win this year against a team other than the Jacksonville Jaguars. Deshaun Watson passed for 344 yards and two touchdowns against the Patriots, giving Watson his fifth 300-yard passing game of the season. What Watson has been doing well lately for Houston is taking care of the football, as he hasn't thrown an interception in five straight games.
Since staging a fourth quarter comeback against the Atlanta Falcons, Detroit hasn't seen much go right. The Lions have lost three of four games, and they are dealing with injuries to many of their key players on the offensive side of the football. D'Andre Swift, Kenny Golladay, and Danny Amendola all missed last week's 20-0 loss to the Carolina Panthers. If that wasn't tough enough to swallow, Matthew Stafford is playing with an injured thumb, while T.J. Hockenson was a limited participant in practice earlier this week because of a shoulder injury.
These two teams are trending in opposite directions. Houston looks to have found some rhythm after firing head coach Bill O'Brien, while Detroit is limping towards the finish line in what could be Matt Patricia's final season with the Lions. Normally I'd have a little more faith in Detroit to show up on Thanksgiving, but the Lions are just too banged up right now. After seeing what Carolina was able to do without Teddy Bridgewater and Christian McCaffrey, Watson and the Houston offense shouldn't have trouble moving the football on Detroit.
Houston 28, Detroit 17
Washington Football Team v. Dallas Cowboys (-3) - 4:30 PM EST - FOX
Both Washington and Dallas have seen their quarterbacks suffer brutal injuries this year. Dak Prescott was lost for the season when he was injured in the first half of a 37-34 Dallas win over the New York Giants. The Cowboys had lost four straight games prior to Sunday's 31-28 win over the Minnesota Vikings. The offense of the Cowboys looked much improved with Andy Dalton back at quarterback after Dalton missed the previous two games for the Cowboys. Ezekiel Elliott had his best game of the season against the Vikings, notching his first 100-yard rushing game of the year.
One of the best stories of the NFL season has been the return of Alex Smith to the field. After Dwayne Haskins was benched, Washington named Kyle Allen their starting quarterback, but the Allen experiment didn't last two long, as the Texas A&M product suffered a gruesome leg injury against the Giants. Smith at least can give Washington some veteran stability at quarterback as the team tries to figure out what the future of the position will hold for the team.
Even though Washington did win on Sunday, they did so against a Cincinnati team that was dealing with the loss of Joe Burrow in the third quarter. Not only is Dallas getting healthier and improving on defense, the offense of the Cowboys is starting to find a little rhythm. Dalton and Dallas are able to get a little revenge on a Washington team that knocked Dalton out of the game in last month's 25-3 win by the Football Team.
Dallas 31, Washington 21
Baltimore Ravens v. Pittsburgh Steelers (-4.5) - Sunday 11/29
On Wednesday afternoon the NFL decided to move Thursday night's Baltimore-Pittsburgh game to Sunday because of a number of positive COVID-19 tests within the Baltimore organization.
How quickly the Ravens have fallen. After looking like one of the favorites in the AFC, Baltimore has lost three of four games, falling to third place in the AFC North. As if that wasn't enough to deal with, it looks like the Ravens are dealing with a COVID-19 outbreak. Overall Baltimore has had four players and five staffers test positive, with the biggest names of the group being running backs Mark Ingram and J.K. Dobbins.
Compared to the Ravens, Pittsburgh has to feel like they are on easy street. After narrowly defeating Dallas a few weeks ago, the Steelers took care of business against Cincinnati and Jacksonville the last two weeks. Pittsburgh is still struggling to find a running game, but that hasn't been much of a problem with Ben Roethlisberger finding Diontae Johnson and Chase Claypool through the air.
How shorthanded is Baltimore going to be for this game? We might not know until close to kickoff. Even if the list of players held out for the game doesn't grow, the Ravens are going to have a really tough time running the football, which will put even more pressure on Lamar Jackson, who has been less than impressive recently. Pittsburgh is just playing too well right now to consider back a Baltimore team on the road that is dealing with a lot on and off the field.
Pittsburgh 34, Baltimore 23
Each Friday, FindBet will preview the week's DFS slate, highlighting players that are priced well on FanDuel, as well as some contrarian plays that can push your team to the top of the leader board.
Most NFL FanDuel games have you putting a team together with players from a certain slate of games. It could be just Sunday 1:00 PM games or it could be every game that is slated for the week. Once the last game that has eligible players is over, the final payouts are made according to how many fantasy points each team scored. Each player is worth a certain dollar amount, and you have a cap of $60,000 to build your team with. You have to have 1 QB, 2 RB, 3 WR, 1 TE, 1 FLEX (RB, WR, or TE) and 1 DEF.
The general scoring rules include (6) points for each rushing and receiving touchdown, (4) points for each passing touchdown, (0.1) points for each rushing and receiving yard gained, (0.04) points for each passing yard, and also (0.5) points for each reception. There are other scoring opportunities for defenses. You can see the entire breakdown on FanDuel. Let's dive into players we like and players we advise to avoid in Week 4.
Players to Target:
Kyler Murray (QB) - $8300
Murray gets a depleted Jets defense that allowed Denver's third string QB to throw for 2 TDs. He should have a great day.
Matt Ryan (QB) - $7700
Ryan gets Carolina this week, and without much of a rushing game, he should put up some nice numbers against the Panthers defense.
Mike Davis (RB) - $6800
Count me as a Mike Davis believer now, he's filled in admirably for Christian McCaffrey. He's logged 20+ touches in both games since McCaffrey has been on IR.
Antonio Gibson (RB) - $5800
GIbson gets a new QB this week in Kyle Allen, and we saw what Allen did to McCaffrey's value last year with the Panthers. Gibson should benefit from an uptick in targets in the passing game.
Highest rushing grade (RBs): 1. Austin Ekeler - 84.6 2. Darrell Henderson - 81.0 3. Dalvin Cook - 80.2 4. Antonio… https://t.co/NGICS6Ew61— PFF Fantasy Football (@PFF Fantasy Football) 1601521213.0
Cooper Kupp (WR) - $7200
Kupp has quietly had a good fantasy season. He took a slant to the house last week against the Giants. I think he's a solid play for the price.
DJ Moore (WR) - $6600
DJ Moore has produced almost every game this year. He gets a Falcons defense this week that hasn't stopped anyone this year.
Tyler Higbee (TE) - $6000
Mark Andrews had two TD grabs against Washington last week. Higbee gets them this week and is one of the top options in DFS.
Hayden Hurst (TE) - $5700
Hurst has been one of Ryan's go to guys. Julio Jones probably won't play this week which gives Hurst a chance for more targets.
Arizona Cardinals (DEF ) - $4200
Cardinals play the Jets. Flacco is starting. Do you need more convincing.
Los Angeles Rams (DEF) - $5000
Kyle Allen is the new QB in Washington. This is a bit of a risky play because of the unknown change at QB, but the Rams defense seems to have started to right the ship defensively.
Players to Avoid:
Dak Prescott (QB) - $8700
The Giants have one of the best pass defenses in the league, and the stifled a powerful Rams offense last week. I think Dak finally comes back to Earth.
Josh Allen (QB) - $8400
The Bills game was flexed to Tuesday because of the Titans COVID-19 breakout, its tough to trust a QB playing on Tuesday with the potential of postponement.
Jonathan Taylor (RB) - $7100
Taylor gets a tough Browns defense this week. With the Browns firepower on offense, the Colts may need to rely on the pass to win this game.
Every snap that Jordan Wilkins plays over Jonathan Taylor is an egregious and unforgivable misuse of resources.— RosterWatch (@RosterWatch) 1601849713.0
Frank Gore (RB) - $5300
The Jets will look to get Gore involved early this week with Flacco starting, which means Arizona will bottle up the Jets run game.
Julio Jones (WR) - $8100
Jones re-injured his hamstring in the Monday night game last week, he's a risky play this week even if he gets a practice in.
Michael Gallup (WR) - $5700
Gallup has just not been involved much in the Dallas attack so far. With a stingy Giants defense this week, he's tough to trust.
Darren Waller (TE) - $6800
Waller has had one good week, and he KC defense is getting better. I'm looking other places this week.
Austin Hooper (TE) - $5200
The Colts have allowed the least points to TEs this year, Hooper has been a massive disappointment in Cleveland's offense.
San Francisco 49ers (DEF) - $4600
The 49ers get a spunky Dolphins team that can put up respectable offensive numbers. Not worth the price this week.
Denver Broncos (DEF) - $3900
Denver's game has moved to Monday night and they will most likely get Cam Newton returning to the Patriots.
FindBet Free Play for Week 5:
Here's a team you can put right into any of your contests, just remember to buy us a beer when you win big!