Tier 1: Set It & Forget It
San Francisco, Baltimore, Buffalo.
The three top defenses from a year ago remain unchanged going in to 2020. All three remain set it and forget it when it comes to match-ups, although pairing Buffalo with a streaming option might not be a bad idea due their schedule (AFC and NFC West opponents).
Buffalo's defense is primed for another top 5 campaign in 2020.
Sam Navarro-USA TODAY Sports
Tier 2: Solid Starters
Minnesota, Pittsburgh, New Orleans, Chicago, Denver
You could make a case for Minnesota being in tier one, especially with the addition of Yannick Ngakoue to an already deep defensive line. He'll replace Everson Griffin. Pittsburgh's defense carried them to a 9-7 record a year ago with abysmal QB play. With Ben Roethlisberger back healthy for 2020, the Steelers defense can get more aggressive and play less bend but don't break defense. New Orleans pairs a formidable unit with a Top 3 offense. Chicago lost a few players to COVID 19 opt-outs, but should still end as a top 10 unit in fantasy. Denver's defense added a few pieces this year and is a sneaky underdog play.
Tier 3: Match-up Dependent Starters
Philadelphia, Seattle, New England, Kansas City, Los Angeles Rams, Tennessee, Los Angeles Chargers
Philadelphia shored up their secondary by trading for Darius Slay in the off season. Jim Schwartz always has formidable units, and their defensive line will give teams fits this year. Seattle traded two first round picks for Jamal Adams, and he'll wreak havoc for Pete Carroll in the NFC West. New England lost a ton of players to Covid 19 opt outs, but Belicheck knows a thing or two about getting the most out of his players. They're a few notches lower than past years but will surprise more than a few in 2020. Tennessee traded away Jurrel Casey to Denver earlier in the off-season, but Jeffery Simmons will slide in and could be even better. Chargers defense will need to carry them as offensive touchdowns will be tough to come by this year without Philip Rivers.
Jamal Adams could make Seattle a Top 10 defense againSeahawks.com
Tier 4: Streamers
Indianapolis, Tampa Bay, Green Bay, Dallas, Cleveland, New York Giants, Houston, Washington, Atlanta.
Not a ton to say about these teams, they won't be starting more than a week or two as a fill in or because of a nice match-up against an inept offense. Indianapolis and Green Bay have some nice schedules based on match-ups and could pair nicely together to stream throughout the year. Houston is an intriguing defense with six match ups against the AFC South.
Tier 5: Desperation Plays
New York Jets, Miami, Jacksonville, Detroit, Arizona, Carolina, Las Vegas, Cincinnati.
These teams should never sniff the daylight of a starting lineup. The only way you'd see them start is in a very deep league (14 teams) or a 2 Defense leagues (Starting 2 DEF). Miami may have some streaming ability depending on how well they have improved with their free agent signings. Detroit could have some streaming ability as well.
The Dolphins spent a lot of money of defense for 2020, but with no offseason work, it's too early to expect much from the unit.LYNNE SLADKY AP
Lamar Jackson puts the moves on Houston Texans S Tashaun Gibson.
I'm not going to try to convince anyone that Patrick Mahomes is bad or unworthy. It'd be a dumb and foolhardy exercise. Yet, the question must be asked: has he peaked, statistically? Probably, and let me tell you, what a peak it was: the highest scoring season for a fantasy quarterback, period. Joining the 50-TD-5,000-yard club, alongside it's only other member, Peyton Manning, will do that for you. But is something like that replicable? Well, let's look at last season.
Allow me to make my obvious caveat now, yes, Mahomes dislocated his knee! For those of you with iron-guts out there, it's quite easy to find the YouTube clip of a trainer popping it back into place. Yet, due to some weird superhuman quirk regarding his naturally loose ligaments, he missed only two games and, in his return, threw more passes and yards than in any other contest (50 attempts and 446 yards). His next two starts after that were letdowns, in which he tossed only one touchdown a game and couldn't top 200 yards in either. Lingering injury, rust, or strong defensive gameplans from division rivals? A mix of all three? Sure.
I say all that to say this, even with the most generous of projections for the 2.5ish games that Mahomes missed, he wasn't going to get within spitting distance of his record-breaking previous season. He played in 13.5 games, with totals of 4,031 yards, 26 TDs, and 5 interceptions. Not bad, but compared to the 16 games in which he racked up 5,097 yards and 50 TDs, it leaves you wanting. Just rounding up his stats from the game he was injured, and tacking on the averages from his MVP campaign brings us to 4,909 yards and 34 touchdowns. Even if we project that he wouldn't have added another pick in those games. Factoring in his rushing stats, and we can generously estimate that he would've clocked 365 points. Lamar still hung a full 50 burger over that number, despite sitting out Week 17.
While I do believe that Patrick Mahomes will outdo his numbers from last year, and it's less likely that Lamar will be able to outdo his, I'm confident that Jackson will remain the highest scoring QB in the league.
Lamar Jackson releases a strike downfield.Will Newton/Getty Images
First, we have to discuss Jackson's unparalleled ability to run the football. This aspect of his game is what makes him such a transcendent fantasy player, but he fares better without it than you might realize. He marshaled the most effective passing attack in the league last year by a
wide margin, as he matched Denver's starting back, Philip Lindsay, point for point. Erase his rushing numbers, and he'd still fall in the top half of fantasy quarterbacks with his 36 touchdowns and over 3,100 yards. Most impressively, he did all that on a team featuring a woefully ineffective set of wide receivers. His only consistent target was Marquise Brown, a rookie pass catcher, who struggled with lingering hip and foot injuries, while his scorching speed, the most valuable asset in his toolbox, was mostly underutilized. Remember that last bit.
We've already established that Lamar's legs make him special, but there's another way of looking at this. What his rushing attack actually provides is coverage for the errant off week. Every quarterback in the league will post a dud game for any number of reasons, Lamar not excluded. However, averaging 27 points a game means that a lot of things had to go right and, in this case, it meant some of Jackson's least impressive passing games could still lead to God Level fantasy performances. The three times he didn't throw a touchdown (against KC, CIN, SEA) he scored 21, 30, and 23 points, respectively.
An important thing to remember about the league's reigning MVP: his age. At 23 years old, he's still younger than the number one overall pick, Joe Burrow, and has plenty of room for improvement. His completion percentage skyrocketed last season after making simple mechanic changes and learning how to better read defenses. He's by no means a finished product, and one area of improvement is his deep ball. Generally, his accuracy on these passes were just about league average, much like the amount of times the running-heavy offense attempted such plays. Defenses will attempt to take away these gains first by crowding the box and the middle of the field, Lamar's preferred area of aerial attack, second, leaving wide open chunks of grass to the deep perimeters.
If he can begin to exploit defenses in this way next season, even in small doses, the floor of his production rises and it could keep his ceiling in a stratosphere occupied by a select few. This upgrade, along with the new wrinkles that Greg Roman, his Offensive Coordinator/Wizard, will be implementing to maximize Lamar's effectiveness will keep his stock trending upward (and beyond Mr. Mahomes).
Christian McCaffrey stiff-arms Josh Allen of the Jacksonville Jaguars.
In the '70s, 3,000 yards passing symbolized excellence. In the '80s and '90s, 4,000 represented a benchmark for the elite. In the 2000s and beyond, 5,000 has been eclipsed with relative ease, and last year the top 10 passers in the league all crossed 4K, which doesn't even include league MVP Lamar Jackson, Deshaun Watson, Kyler Murray, and Josh Allen, who all brought considerable value as dual-threats. Even Drew Brees, who only played 11 games, nearly cracked 3,000. You can throw a dead duck and hit a passable starting fantasy QB in the eighth round these days. By extension, WRs, who rack up all those yards, are easier to find too.
Back to why we're here: Christian McCaffrey. First things first, he checks the biggest box of everything I laid out above. As a running back, the guy is the unquestioned centerpiece of the Carolina offense. He led the team in attempts, receptions, total yards, and touchdowns, and it wasn't particularly close.
What else makes him so attractive? He hasn't missed a game in his career, he played with an injury-plagued Cam Newton and Kyle Allen (Who? Exactly.) at quarterback the last three years, and he's entering his age-24 season, AKA his prime. This barely scratches the surface on his unassailable position at number one off the board.
Christian McCaffrey flexes on his haters. (AP Photo/Bill Feig)
Opportunity
On equal footing with actual production, opportunity is one of the most important aspects of a player's draftability. Opportunity illustrates a team's willingness and gameplan to use a player, the chances a player will have to rip off big runs and touchdowns, and, at its most base level, the amount of time a player is on the field. RUN CMC excels in this category. Going back to 2012, there have only been three seasons when a player's snap share—his percentage of time on the field—has been over 90%, and McCaffrey had two of them.
Being on the field is one thing, but being featured is another. In case you're worried, as a running back, McCaffrey led the league in targets, receptions, receiving yards, and total TDs. He was second in red zone touches, third in rushing yards, and fourth in carries. In short, the man is a human-tank hybrid with the heart of the Energizer Bunny.
Dual Threat
I've already beat you over the head with this, but allow me to expound just a bit more. It is categorically impossible to overstate how good of a receiver McCaffrey is and how valuable that makes him.
To begin with, he's one of only three players in the history of the league to eclipse 1,000 yards rushing and receiving. Pretty impressive. Well, how about this? If you Thanos snapped and erased his receiving stats from last season, he'd still be the sixth best fantasy running back, just ahead of Nick Chubb. You add those numbers back, and he's nearly 80 points ahead of his nearest competition.
If you're in a PPR league, and you pass on this man at the top of the round, you should be booed until you float off the planet. He put up 471 points in full PPR leagues last year! That's not a misprint or a typo or a stroke you're having. He was a full 157 points better than number two, Aaron Jones. (157 points is how much the 28th best running back, Latavius Murray, put up total.) To visualize this, if it were a foot race over a 100 yard football field, McCaffrey would be crossing the goal line with second place a full 25 yards behind him. This added dimension of his game might as well put him in a literal other dimension where he's a god among men, and he rules with swift but fair justice.
Contract
Finally, this past April, Christian McCaffrey became the richest running back ever, making a cool 16 million for the next four seasons. Contracts for rushers tend to age more like bread than fine wine, especially if you look at some of the current top earners. Zeke Elliot's massive deal is blocking Dak Prescott from getting his extension, while Le'veon Bell and David Johnson's 13 million a year plus deals look more and more like albatrosses (unless you're Bill O'Brien apparently). The difference is CMC is the youngest of the bunch, and his AAV, along with comments from coach Matt Rhule, demonstrate how he should be regarded in the league. He's more than a running back, he's an offensive weapon. He'll be making more than all other running backs, and the same as most of the game's best WRs. Giving him that type of money is great insight into how and how much the Panthers plan to use one of the most athletically gifted players of all time. Hint: as a combo ball carrier/pass catcher and A LOT.
Round 1:
By the time the end of round one is approaching and you are on the clock, most likely 6-7 running backs (RB) and 1-2 wide receivers (WR) will have been taken. This leaves you in a position to capitalize on top tier WR talent that is sitting on the board as well as the second tier of RBs. Players like Nick Chubb, Joe Mixon, Tyreek Hill, and DeAndre Hopkins are all excellent picks at the end of the first round.
Nick Chubb is not getting enough attention as a fantasy star in this year's drafts. Kevin Stefanski brings an offense over from Minnesota that vaulted Dalvin Cook into fantasy stardom over the last three years. Some analysts are worried about Kareem Hunt cutting into Chubbs workload, but if you look at Stefanski's RB usage as an offensive coordinator, he has gravitated to feeding the ball to one running back more than a committee approach. While Hunt will get touches, Chubb still is the workhorse of Cleveland's RB stable.
Tyreek Hill will be a late 1st or early 2nd round pick in 2020RICH SUGG RSUGG@KCSTAR.COM
Round 2:
In round two, you will be picking shortly after your choice in round one. So there are going to be excellent WRs still available and you will still be able to target a few tier two RBs. You also have the ability to draft one of the elite TE or QB prospects. Here are a few different routes that you have the option to utilize in the second round.
- RB-RB: After taking either Chubb or Mixon in the first round, you can turn around and snag another tier two RB in the second. Players to target include: Aaron Jones, Miles Sanders and Chris Carson. There is going to be a plethora of WRs on the board here, so unless you feel strongly about a RB still on the board, or a tier one RB has fallen out of the first round, this is a riskier strategy from a value standpoint.
- RB-WR: Taking a WR in the second round will be very popular for owners drafting at the end of the first round, no matter what player you took in the first. Players that should still be on the board at the beginning of the second round include: Davante Adams, Julio Jones, Mike Evans, and Chris Godwin are usually available at the turn, although your view on Mike Evans and Chris Godwin's viability is directly tied to how well you think Tom Brady can elevate that Tampa Bay offense.
- RB/WR-TE: Picking at the beginning of the second round allows for owners to take on either an elite tight end (TE) or quarterback (QB) prospect, as opposed to drafting a second WR or RB. Travis Kelce is a TE that would allow you take advantage of one of the few elite fantasy prospects at the position. If you are really wanting to shore up TE on your team and Kelce is taken before your pick in the second round, then you can pull the trigger on George Kittle, but he is best suited later in the second or early in the third round. It's understandable if you do pull the trigger early in the second, as he will not be around by the time you pick at the end of the third round.
- RB/WR-QB: The end of the second round is a perfect position to capitalize on an elite QB prospect if you feel obliged. You will most likely have your pick of Patrick Mahomes or Lamar Jackson in this slot, and both are values here. No other QB is worth a pick this early in the second round.
Lamar Jackson could be a steal near the end of round 3Sean M. Haffey/Getty Images
Round 3:
Round three will allow teams to go different routes in their team building. I suggest that if a Tier 2 RB is still on the board by the time you pick at the end of the third round, you capitalize on the value and take that player. Running backs like Kenyan Drake and Devin Singletary are great values that late, especially if you have not drafted a RB yet at this point.
Wide Receiver depth is excellent here; players usually available include Cooper Kupp, TY Hilton, Tyler Lockett, and Calvin Ridley. AJ Brown and Keenan Allen are going this high as well, but I am a bit down on their expectations compared to other analysts in the industry. Allen losing Rivers as his QB and Brown's expectations are sky high for his current ADP.
As discussed before, Deshaun Watson is the only QB worth taking in the third round, and if Kittle and Kelce are gone, Mark Andrews is an adequate consolation prize at TE. Andrews gains more value as he drops into the fourth round, so taking a different position and then nabbing him at the beginning of the fourth round would be ideal.
Your goals for the later rounds of the draft is to snag some high ceiling RBs. Picking at the end of the first round, you're missing out on the top 6-7 RBs, so hitting on a few of these players that have a chance to be a top 25 back can take your team from good to great.
There will be WR value late in the draft as well as on the waiver wire, so don't feel the need to load up on late pic WRs. Don't worry about taking a backup TE or QB in the draft, as they can usually be found on the waiver wire as the season progresses. Use those two draft picks on high potential RBs and WRs.
