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NBA Best Bets of the Night: Wednesday, May 4

Tyler Herro (Left), Bam Adebayo (Right), Miami Heat

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Tonight we have two Second-Round Game 2 Matchups.

The first features the Embiid-less Philadelphia 76ers against the red-hot Miami Heat. Next, Chris Paul and the Phoenix Suns look to take a 2-0 lead over Luka Doncic and the Dallas Mavericks. Let's dive into tonight's best NBA bets and player props. And happy May the 4th to all you Star Wars fans out there.

Please Note: All odds and lines are from FanDuel Sportsbook and were accurate at 2 PM EST. Be sure to check for line movement or odd changes.

Best Bets of the Night

Game: Philadelphia 76ers at Miami Heat -8 (MIA Leads 1-0)

The Miami Heat kicked off their second-round series with a dominant 92-106 win over the Philadelphia 76ers. With Joel Embiid out of the lineup due to a concussion and a facial fracture (for which he will wear a mask upon return), the hope was that James Harden could step it up in scoring. Nonetheless, Harden only scored 19 points. In total, only three players on the 76ers (Harden, Maxey, & Harris) scored in double-figures.

In contrast, the Heat had five guys who scored 10+ points in Game 1. While Herro, Butler, and Abedayo should all be scoring double-digits every night, P.J. Tucker and Gabe Vincent are not expected to do so. Vincent only got there due to Kyle Lowry's absence in Game 1. Without Embiid in the paint, things looked a lot easier for Bam Adebayo who had 24 points (8-10 FG) and 12 rebounds on Monday night. The Heat should cover yet again and take a commanding 2-0 lead in the series.

The Pick: Miami Heat -8 (-110)

Game: Dallas Mavericks at Phoenix Suns -6.5 (PHO Leads 1-0)

Game 1 of this second-round series ended with the Phoenix Suns defending the home court with a final score of 121-114. Both teams shot well above 45% from the field in Game 1, and it truly came down to the wire. The Phoenix Suns covered the spread with clutch free throws in the last few minutes of the Game. In Game 2, Dallas could lose, but not by more than they did in Game 1. My guess would be that Dallas keeps it closer than they did in Game 1, and perhaps even squeeze out a Game 2 win on the road. The spread is one point greater tonight than it was in Game 1, further increasing Dallas’ chances of covering the spread. Nonetheless, the Mavericks are still looking to get their first win against the Suns altogether, as they have yet to defeat them in the regular season nor in the playoffs this year. If Luka Doncic continues to perform at an elite level, the Mavericks have a shot. That said, Maxi Kleber has become one of the most important players on the Mavs. His ability to hit threes and bring Deandre Ayton and JaVale McGee out of the paint is critical to the Mavericks' potential success.

The Pick: Dallas Mavericks +6.5 (-110)

NBA Player Props of the Night

Game: Philadelphia 76ers at Miami Heat -8 (MIA Leads 1-0)

Prop #1: Tobias Harris Over 19.5 Points

Tobias Harris has been a very reliable offensive player for the 76ers since the postseason began. In Game 1, the veteran wing shot very efficiently from the field and scored a team-high 27 points (11-18 FG). This regular season, Harris’ offensive numbers dropped to 17.2 PPG from approximately 19.5 PPG in both 2020 and 2019. However, Harris has re-emerged as one of Philly’s best offensive weapons. He’s scoring more than Harden, and should easily score at least 20 points tonight.

Prop #2: Tyler Herro Over 18.5 Points

Tyler Herro led all scorers for the Miami Heat in Game 1 with 25 points (9-17 FG) and went four-of-six from downtown. He also converted 50% of his shots in Game 5 of their first-round series against the Hawks and finished with 16 points. He honestly looked like the rookie sensation who emerged in the 2020 NBA Playoffs when he absolutely erupted in the bubble. The newly elected NBA Sixth Man of the Year is playing the part when it matters most.

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NBA Playoffs Best Bets of the Night: Monday, May 2

Chris Paul, Phoenix Suns

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As we head into the Conference Semifinals, two Game 1s are on the schedule tonight.

The top seed in the Eastern Conference, the Miami Heat, will host James Harden and the Philadelphia 76ers. The second Game 1 of the night will feature Luka Doncic and the Dallas Mavericks taking on Chris Paul and the Phoenix Suns.

Best Bets of the Night

Game: Philadelphia 76ers at Miami Heat -7.5 (Game 1)

Despite Joel Embiid’s thumb injury and a small scare induced by a Toronto Raptors squad that was fighting for survival, the 76ers kick off their Eastern Conference Semi-Final tonight against the ferocious Miami Heat. Both of these teams are looking like the strongest coming out of the Eastern Conference this postseason (though don't count out the Bucks just because Khris Middleton is hurt as they dominated the Boston Celtics in Game 1 on Sunday). However, Joel Embiid will miss at least the first two games of this series due to a facial fracture and a concussion that the big man sustained in their Game 6 win over the Toronto Raptors.

While he could play through a torn ligament in his thumb, it is out of the question for him to play with such head injuries. For Embiid to miss the first two games of this series is simply devastating for the 76ers. If Embiid has a chance of clearing concussion protocols by Game 3 or 4, the 76ers might be able to survive. However, the Heat are dealing with injury issues of their own. Specifically, Kyle Lowry has been ruled out for Game 1 due to his hamstring injury, while Tyler Herro, Jimmy Butler, and Markieff Morris are all listed as game-time decisions for various reasons ahead of tonight’s game. While Embiid could be out for significant time during the second round and will be playing the rest of the postseason with a torn ligament in his thumb, the Heat have a few very short-term injuries that coach Spoelstra isn’t too worried about. “They feel like they have enough, we feel like we have enough. I guess probably both sides are ready to tip this thing up,” coach Spoelstra said. As it stands at the moment, Philadelphia is in trouble and looks like they will lose their first two second-round games by double digits without Embiid available. Then again, crazier things have occurred. Don't completely count the Sixers out but the Heat should cover the spread tonight.

The Pick: Miami Heat -7.5

Game: Dallas Mavericks at Phoenix Suns -5.5 (Game 1)

Despite New Orleans’ hard work in trying to fend off the Suns, Chris Paul’s perfect night from the field in Game 6 demonstrated why CP3 is more versatile than just a pass-first point guard. The reigning Western Conference champions are the clear-cut favorites in Game 1, especially on their home floor. The truth is that Dallas lacks size in the post which will allow guys like Deandre Ayton and even JaVale McGee to have very efficient nights. Simply put, both of Phoenix’s true centers have the advantage over the Mavs’ bigs Dwight Powell and Maxi Kleber in the paint. That said, Kleber can stretch the floor due to his three-point accuracy. Neither Ayton nor McGee are reliable in defending the perimeter. They are both much more comfortable as defensive anchors down low in the paint. That said, the Suns have tons of momentum after Chris Paul's record-breaking performance when he converted all 14 of his shots in Game 6 against the Pelicans. Ayton also seems to have found his groove in the playoffs. And although Ayton isn't a great perimeter defender, he has the size and strength to dominate on the offensive end of the floor against Powell and Kleber.

In Game 1, we’ll see this mismatch in front of our eyes, and will be one of the main reasons why the Suns are able to pull off the big Game 1 win. Injuries aren’t a factor going into this series. With the exception of Tim Hardaway Jr. for the Mavericks and Dario Saric for the Suns, both teams are entirely healthy and ready to go. This regular season, the Suns and the Mavericks faced off three times and Phoenix won all three contests. To kick off their Western Conference Semifinals on their home floor, the Suns could win by double-digits in Game 1.

The Pick: Phoenix Suns -5.5

NBA Player Props of the Night

Game: Dallas Mavericks at Phoenix Suns -5.5 (Game 1)

Prop: Chris Paul Over 16.5 Points

Jose Alvarado and Herbert Jones are out of the way for Chris Paul now. He’ll have to worry about Dallas’ guards who are primarily excellent offensive players. They certainly will be less focused on smothering CP3 on the court than the New Orleans rookies. Finally, Chris Paul is coming off of a record-setting historical Game 6 performance where he shot a perfect 14-14 from the field to carry the Suns to the Western Conference Semifinals. Even with Devin Booker back in the lineup, expect Paul to drop 17+ points in Game 1.

Prop: Devin Booker Over 2.5 Three-Pointers Made

Devin Booker made a surprise appearance in Game 6 when he was previously expected to miss the remainder of the first-round series due to his hamstring injury. In 32 minutes on the floor in Game 6, D-Book went one-of-six from downtown. However, he shot 50% or above from downtown, converting four-of-eight threes in Game 1. Additionally, he went bonkers in Game 2 with seven three-pointers on just 11 attempts. Tonight, he’ll make at least three buckets from downtown.

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NBA Playoffs Best Bets of the Night: Tuesday, April 26

Cameron Johnson (Left), Chris Paul (Mid), Mikal Bridges (Right), Phoenix Suns

Photo By: Johnathan Bachman, Getty Images

Two first-round series in the West are all tied up heading into Game 5's tonight.

After an abysmal collapse in Game 3, Minnesota was able to win Game 4 at home. Likewise, the New Orleans Pelicans lost to the Suns by three points in Game 3 but won by 15 points in Game 4. Phoenix will look to bounce back tonight. Finally, Miami will look to eliminate the Atlanta Hawks at home tonight after blowing them out in Atlanta in Game 4. Let's take a look at some of tonight's best NBA bets.

Best Bets of the Night

Game: Atlanta Hawks at Miami Heat -7 (MIA Leads Series 3-1)

While the Hawks have fought valiantly to make their way through the play-in games, they now have to win three games in a row including two on the road to move past the Heat. With such an unlikely scenario for the Hawks and Miami’s desire to get some rest before the second round of the NBA playoffs, the Heat are looking hot going into tonight’s game. Game 4 ended in a 110-86 blowout victory, led once again by Jimmy Butler’s dominance. He produced a 36-point (12-21 FG), 10-rebound double-double and recorded four steals in Game 4.

In addition, Miami completely locked down Trae Young in the last game, holding him to nine points (3-11 FG) in 36 minutes of action. Young shot six-of-14 in Game 3 and was also held to eight points (1-12 FG) in Game 1. Although the Raptors are fighting back and have won two games after losing the first three of their first-round series, the Hawks' outlook is much bleaker. The Hawks' 2021-22 season ends tonight in South Florida.

The Pick: Miami Heat -7 (-110)

Game: Minnesota Timberwolves at Memphis Grizzlies -6 (Series Tied 2-2)

Karl-Anthony Towns went from producing eight points and five rebounds in Game 3 to recorded a 33-point and 14-rebound double-double in Game 4 to help his team even the series up. Game 5 will be tonight in Memphis, and the Grizzlies will defend the home floor. The way Desmond Bane erupted in Game 3 on the road gives me all the confidence that he has a huge game at home in Game 5 tonight. This is a very tough series to predict, but Memphis remains one of the best teams in the league, and they should bounce back big after a stinger of a loss in Game 4.

The Pick: Memphis Grizzlies -6

Game: New Orleans Pelicans at Phoenix Suns -6.5 (Series Tied 2-2)

Chris Paul was special in Game 3, but rookies Herbert Jones and Jose Alvarado created nightmares for him in Game 4. Though he scored 28 points and dished out 14 assists to carry the Suns in Game 3, CP3 was contained to only four points on two-of-eight shooting from the field in Game 4. It’s crucial to remember that Devin Booker is still out and that Phoenix will likely be without him for the remainder of the series. In Phoenix tonight, the Suns will bounce back. In turn, expect the Pelicans to be the favorites at home in Game 6. This is one series that I feel will head to a Game 7. One team wins, and the other bounces back. The Suns will win by 10+ points tonight after a 15-point loss in Game 5.

The Pick: Phoenix Suns - 6.5

NBA Player Props of the Night

Game: New Orleans Pelicans at Phoenix Suns -6.5 (Series Tied 2-2)

Prop #1: Cameron Johnson Under 14.5 Points

Cameron Johnson has played great all season and now that Devin Booker is out of the rotation, his scoring opportunities per game are elevated. However, he’s scored 11, 8, and 13 points respectively in the last three games. While D-Book has been out, Johnson has played efficiently, but hasn’t scored more than 14 points in any game since March.

Prop #2: Mikal Bridges Over 4.5 Rebounds

Mikal Bridges' Over in rebounds hits frequently, but not always. The reason he will grab at least five boards off the glass tonight is that the Phoenix Suns will be having a resurgent defensive game. The Pelicans will be missing more shots than they did on Sunday night when they scored 118 points.

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NBA Best Bets of the Night: Friday, April 8

Trae Young of Atlanta Hawks

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On this last Friday night of the regular season, we have a slate of nine NBA games.

The most interesting matchups on the schedule feature the Hornets vs the Bulls, the Cavaliers vs the Nets, and the Suns vs the Jazz. Let’s jump in.

All odds are accurate as of 3:00 PM EST on Fanduel Sportsbook.

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Best Bets of the Night

Game 1: Charlotte Hornets at Chicago Bulls -2.5

Heading into tonight, both the Chicago Bulls and the Charlotte Hornets are very healthy. The Hornets will only be without Gordon Hayward, who hasn’t played in months. Chicago has lost Lonzo Ball for the season, and currently has Zach Lavine listed as a game-time decision for tonight’s game. This is a tricky pick because the Chicago Bulls have lost their last three home games badly. Will they really lose a fourth and final home game of the regular season against the Charlotte Hornets? Even if Lavine doesn’t play, the Hornets are an easier matchup for the Bulls than the three teams they’ve hosted since Saturday (Bucks, Heat, and Celtics) without Lavine in the lineup. Even if LaVine doesn’t play tonight, I’d truly be shocked if the Bulls lost their fourth consecutive home game. The Hornets are one of the worst teams in the Association facing opposing guards allowing them to produce an average of 101 FPTS per game against them. The 10th seeded Hornets are just one game behind the Hawks in the Eastern Conference standings and will be competing hard tonight in the hopes of taking the higher seed away from Atlanta. Although Chicago has lost their last three consecutive games, all at home, I do not think they will allow the Hornets to embarrass them in their last home game of the season.

The Pick: Chicago Bulls - 2.5 (-110)

Game 2: Cleveland Cavaliers at Brooklyn Nets - 9

The Brooklyn Nets have a switch that they can turn on any time they want. They proved that in that last game after overcoming a 21-point deficit against the embarrassing New York Knicks at Madison Square Garden on Wednesday. Especially now that Kyrie Irving is eligible to play in New York City, the Nets have been looking ferocious. Brooklyn should seal the deal at home tonight, but I think the Cavaliers have a good chance of keeping it somewhat interesting. If Cleveland loses by eight points or less, this bet hits. Jarett Allen remains out and likely will be inactive until the postseason begins. Evan Mobley is listed as a game-time decision for tonight’s game.

The Pick: Cleveland Cavaliers +9 (-112)

Game 3: Phoenix Suns at Utah Jazz - 2

Devin Booker, DeAndre Ayton, Chris Paul, and Jamison Crowder all did not play in a 109-113 road loss to the Los Angeles Clippers on Tuesday night. Tonight, it seems CP3 will be active against the Jazz as he missed the last game due to injury management. In fact, all the starters that were inactive Tuesday were not included in today’s injury report ahead of tonight’s game in Utah. While Booker, Paul, and Ayton could play fewer minutes than the 30+ they get each night, reports suggest they’ll be out on the floor. Utah finds itself two games behind the Dallas Mavericks, currently with the fifth seed in the West. Tonight’s matchup can be seen as a potential playoff series. Both teams will compete tonight. The Jazz’s roster is completely healthy and has a good chance to defend the home floor. The last time the two teams played was February 27, in Phoenix, where Utah sealed a thrilling 118-114 victory. I like the Suns to give the Jazz payback on the road tonight, after being served by Utah at home. Especially with all of Phoenix’s starters active tonight, this is the ML pick of the night.

The Pick: Phoenix Suns ML +118

NBA Player Props of the Night

Game: Atlanta Hawks at Miami Heat +2

Prop 1: Trae Young, Over 3.5 Rebounds (-102)

Trae Young is averaging 3.7 rebounds a game this season. He’s getting four or more rebounds a game approximately every other night. Although Miami is one of the best teams in the East, they are an average team shooting the ball from the field. This means that Atlanta might get more opportunities to catch rebounds than they otherwise might not. For that reason, Ice Trae has a better chance of hitting the over on rebounds tonight than the under.

Prop 2: Danillo Gallinari, Over 1.5 Three-Pointers Made (-200)

Danillo Gallinari is coming off of a huge 26-point (11-19 FG) in a dominant 118-103 victory over the Washington Wizards on Tuesday. In that game, he shot four-of-seven from beyond the arc. This season, the Italian veteran is shooting a respectable 37.5% from beyond the arc. He’s also attempted at least five three-pointers and knocked down at least two of them in four of his last six games. Gallinari will also have a good chance in his matchups tonight, likely against wings Markieff Morris and Duncan Robinson. The way I see things, Miami will be caught sleeping on Gallinari at least once or twice tonight, where he will get multiple open looks from beyond the arc. This to me suggests he will hit at least two three-pointers tonight against the Miami Heat.


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