2022 NBA Finals: Boston Celtics at Golden State Warriors Game 1 Betting Lines, Odds & Predictions
Jayson Tatum, Boston Celtics
Klay Thompson (57) and Stephen Curry (60) have combined for 117 three-pointers this postseason. They are playing at the level they did between 2015-2018. They face the roaring Boston Celtics who stunned the Milwaukee Bucks and then the Miami Heat in their last two series. Like Klay and Steph, it is Jaylen Brown and Jayson Tatum who headline the Celtics’ offense. Tonight, the first game of the 2022 NBA Finals between the Golden State Warriors and Boston Celtics is set to tip-off at 9:00 PM EST. at the Chase Center.
Many pundits expect the Warriors to win this series somewhat easily due to their immense championship experience. Members of Golden State have played in a combined 123 NBA Finals games while not one member of the Boston Celtics has ever suited up in the world’s biggest state. However, one Celtic was at least behind the scenes during the 2007 NBA Finals. Tatum’s godfather is former NBA All-Star Larry Hughes. When the Cavaliers made the NBA Finals in 2007, Hughes let Tatum sit with the team and enjoy the facilities before and after Game 3 and Game 4. Tatum’s father played ball with Hughes from an early age and the youngster was introduced to the NBA stage by his godfather when he was just a kid. So although Golden State has a massive advantage in the experience category, something tells me that Tatum is going to lead by example and keep his team competitive in this life-changing series.
All that said, the Warriors could very well be at full strength for the first time in a while. Gary Payton II, Andre Iguodola, and Otto Porter all practiced yesterday and are reportedly hopeful to suit up for tonight’s Game 1 in California.
Now, let’s take a look at some of the best bets to consider for Game 1 of the NBA Finals.
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Best Bets of the Night
Game: Boston Celtics at Golden State Warriors -3.5
Golden State comfortably secured their path to the NBA Finals after defeating the Dallas Mavericks in five games during the Western Conference Finals. The Warriors truly stepped up their game in that series in comparison to their series against the Memphis Grizzlies. Specifically, we are seeing much better shooting across the board from Stephen Curry and Klay Thompson who have now combined to score nearly 120 three-pointers this postseason. The Warriors have scored at least 109 points in their last seven contests and have set the bar high for how much scoring needs to be done by the other team to keep things interesting.
Still, the Boston Celtics have had a much harder road to climb than the Warriors throughout these playoffs. While they swept the Brooklyn Nets in the first round, they had to go to a Game 7 against the Bucks and avoided two elimination games (Games 6 & 7) to earn their spot in the Eastern Conference Finals against the Miami Heat. That series also went to seven games, but Boston was victorious. The Celtics are playing with unquantifiable grit and a determination to win. While this series will go at least six games in my opinion, the Celtics will concede Game 1 on the road by at least four points.
This matchup essentially comes down to whether you think Golden State’s offense or Boston’s defense will prevail. Although the Celtics have Defensive Player of the Year Marcus Smart, a few solid defensive wings in Jaylen Brown and Jayson Tatum, and a massive shot-blocking presence in Robert Williams III, the Warriors’ offense is simply too difficult to contain. It’s incredibly difficult to contain Curry and Thompson while also playing tight defense on Andrew Wiggins, Jordan Poole, and Draymond Green. The Warriors can score in a variety of ways and aren’t too shabby on the defensive end themselves.
The Pick: Golden State Warriors -3.5 (-110)
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Total: Over or Under 213.5 Points
The Warriors averaged 121.9 points per 100 possessions in the first round of the playoffs, and 120.3 points per 100 possessions in the Western Conference Finals. Largely due to Stephen Curry and Klay Thompson, Golden State’s offense has been the most efficient throughout these playoffs. The fact that they averaged at least 120 points per 100 possessions in two of their three playoff series shows just how many points they are capable of dropping numerically. To see it for yourself is a different thing. Consider the 142 points the Warriors scored in Game 5 of the second round against the Grizzlies or the 126 points they recorded in Game 2 against the Mavericks.
The Warriors set an offensive pace, especially during their home games, that must be matched. Jaylen Brown and Jayson Tatum played terrifically in the Eastern Conference Finals, improving on their first two playoff series. If the Warriors score 115 points tonight, expect the Celtics to keep it within 10. This should be a high-scoring series altogether despite each team’s excellent defensive prowess. Simply put, both these offenses are too good to produce fewer than 213 points. Furthermore, both teams will feed off each other’s energy to score more.
The Pick: Over 213.5 Total Points (-110)
Best Game 1 NBA Player Props
Robert Williams III to record a double-double (+1000)
While the odds for this prop say it all, Williams is very capable of recording double-doubles. This season, he averaged 10 points and 9.6 rebounds per game. Against the Heat, Williams had a tough time on the glass in Game 6 and Game 7. However, he hauled in 10 rebounds in Game 5 and nine rebounds in Game 4 after returning from a torn meniscus earlier in the Spring. Against the Warriors, he has the upside over a big like Kevon Looney. In contrast to Bam Adebayo who disrupted his performance, Williams will have a chance to produce more efficiently against the Warriors than against the Heat. While this pick isn't a lock, why not throw a couple of bucks on here and see if Williams really gets big in the paint. Quite frankly, I'm surprised this prop has such long odds. Williams is definitely capable of a 10-point and 10-rebound night so long as he stays out of foul trouble.
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Nathan MacKinnon, Colorado Avalanche
The New York Rangers continued their Stanley Cup bid by defeating the Carolina Hurricanes in Game 7 last night, 6-2. They will host the two-time reigning champions in the Tampa Bay Lightning for Game 1 of the Eastern Conference Finals on Wednesday night. Tonight, the Western Conference Finals begin with the Edmonton Oilers traveling to Denver to take on the Colorado Avalanche at Ball Arena. Tune in at 8:00 PM EST. on TNT for the official puck drop. With so many superstars suiting up for this critical series including Cale Makar, Nathan MacKinnon, Darren Helm, Nazem Kadri, Evander Kane, Leon Draisitl, and of course, Connor McDavid, many pundits are expecting an explosive series with several high-scoring games.
After losing Game 1 in Calgary, the Oilers won the battle of Alberta by defeating the Flames in four straight games to reach the Conference Finals for the first time in 16 years. On the opposite side of the puck, the Avalanche took a commanding three-game lead before dropping two straight to the St. Louis Blues. Still, Colorado notched three road victories in their second-round series and punched their first ticket to the Western Conference Finals since they were eliminated by Sergei Federov and the Detroit Red Wings back in 2002. So which team will get out to a quick start and win Game 1 of this epic series?
Oilers at Avalanche Game 1 Odds, Lines, and Predictions
According to Bet MGM Sportsbook, here are the Game 1 odds and lines:
- Moneyline: Oilers +150, Avalanche -165
- Against The Spread (ATS): Oilers +1.5 (-160), Avalanche -1.5 (+135)
- Over / Under: 7 (Over: +105, Under: -130)
Oilers-Avalanche Goalie Advantage
Mike Smith performed admirably against the Calgary Flames. He is coming off four consecutive victories and has an 8-3 record this postseason with two shutouts. He’s allowing just 2.7 GAA and has a spectacular .927 SV% in the playoffs.
Although Darcy Kuemper is 6-2, allowing 2.44 GAA, and has produced a .904 SV%, the Colorado goaltender has looked pedestrian at best. That said, he has allowed three or fewer goals in eight of his last nine postseason starts and stopped 18 of the 20 shots he faced in Colorado’s series-clinching victory over the Blues in Game 6.
The Rangers-Lightning series will feature arguably the two best goalies in the league but neither goaltender in the Western Conference Finals gives their team a significant edge. I would call this a wash. If a gun were pointed at my head, I would say Kuemper is slightly more skilled but he needs to show it on the biggest stage.
Oilers-Avalanche Game 1 Picks:
Using the Same-Game Parlay feature on the sportsbook of your choice, I suggest parlaying the moneyline and the Over/Under in Game 1. The Avs are the clear-cut favorite tonight, especially on their home ice. In fact, the Avs have the shortest odds of the four remaining teams to win the Stanley Cup (+120), followed by the Tampa Bay Lightning (+230). Fortunately for the Avs, the home team has won five of the past six meetings between these two franchises. Moreover, the favorite won each of those contests which bodes well for the Avalanche. Colorado has won 55 of their last 68 games at home and is 30-12 in their last 42 postseason matchups as the favorite. Although the Oilers proved against the Flames that they are not afraid to go into an opponent’s building and silence the crowd, Colorado is a much bigger beast than Calgary. They are practically unstoppable when playing to their capacity and have one of the best defensive units in the league. The Oilers have to prove that they can win in Denver. Until then, I’m backing the top-seeded Avalanche.
In terms of the Over / Under, seven goals is a lot, even for teams as offensively skilled as the Oilers and Avalanche. Colorado won Game 1 of their previous series, 3-2 in overtime. The two teams were still feeling each other out and it was a pretty tight game. However, the Oilers allowed nine goals in Game 1 against Calgary and lost, 9-6 in the highest-scoring game of these NHL Playoffs. Although the Oilers like to play loose, I expect these teams to start slower as they attempt to get comfortable in what should be a fantastic series. Colorado has also been resting for a while so although they will have fresh legs, it may take a period or two before they truly find their groove.
For all the reasons stated above, I’m going with Colorado Avalanche ML + Under 7 goals.
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Jaylen Brown, Boston Celtics
Miami conceded Game 5 of the Eastern Conference Finals to the Boston Celtics at home. Tonight, they will look to close the series out back in the TD Garden. Jaylen Brown and Jayson Tatum have continued to play phenomenal basketball throughout this series. Miami’s injury struggles have affected Tyler Herro specifically for this series, and Kyle Lowry for the entirety of the postseason.
While the Celtics undoubtedly have the upper hand heading into tonight’s game and likely have cemented the series, they will be facing off against a desperation mode squad for the Heat that will shoot better than they did in Game 5. Let's take a look at tonight's best NBA Playoff Bets and props.
Please note that all odds and lines are from FanDuel Sportsbook and were accurate at 2:30 PM EST. Be sure to check for line movement or odd changes.
Best Bets of the Night
Game: Miami Heat at Boston Celtics -8.5 (BOS Leads 3-2)
Bet 1: Boston Celtics -8.5 (-110)
While the Heat are likely going to lose on the road in Game 6, they will look to keep things interesting tonight. They could lose by eight points and you’d still come out on top. Based on that fact alone, they will play with a desperation factor. The Heat once again have a long list of players listed as questionable for tonight’s game. This includes Tyler Herro, Kyle Lowry, PJ Tucker, Max Struss and Gabe Vincent. In Game 5, both teams could have shot better. Miami truly had an abysmal night shooting from the field. On Wednesday night, they only converted 31.9 % from the field and a brutal 15.6% from downtown. Miami’s current roster depth among available guards is simply abysmal. While Marcus Smart and Robert Williams are listed as questionable for the Boston Celtics, they have too much upside over the Heat heading into tonight’s Game 6 at the TD Garden.
Bet 2: Over 201 Total Points (-110)
Despite a very low-scoring contest in Game 5 where only 173 total points were scored (BOS 93 - 80 MIA), the desperation factor for the Heat will push them to shoot quicker and better than they did in Game 5. Miami only converted 30-of-94 field goals as a team and an abysmal 7-of-45 shooting from downtown. Miami quite simply had a miserable outing in Game 5, they will lose tonight, but they really couldn’t score any less than 80 points. Although Boston should win tonight's matchup by double-digit points, the Heat will shoot better and maintain a high volume of shots attempted. They should score 95-100 points tonight.
NBA Props of the Night
Game: Miami Heat at Boston Celtics -8.5 (BOS Leads 3-2)
Prop: Al Horford 10+ Points & Boston to Win (+106)
We’ve already discussed why Boston is the heavy favorite for tonight’s game. With Robert Williams currently listed as questionable heading into tonight, Al Horford is ready to go. Even if Robert Williams plays tonight, he might not be as healthy as he needs to be. As a result, expect Al Horford to get more looks from the field and score at least 10 points at home in tonight’s crucial Game 6.
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After three consecutive victories, the Golden State Warriors conceded Game 4 of the Western Conference Finals to the Dallas Mavericks. In Game 5, the Warriors will look to close out Luka Doncic and the Mavs in front of the home crowd. As a team, the Warriors were efficient from the field, converting 48.8% of their shots taken. One of the main reasons Golden State lost was a result of poor free-throw shooting. The Warriors missed nine of their 27 free throws on Tuesday night (65.4 FT%). In comparison, the Mavericks were full-throttle in Game 4 facing elimination. Dallas’ Reggie Bullock (18 PTS) and Dorian Finney Smith (23 PTS) combined for 42 points, adding to Luka’s 30.
Ultimately, no team has ever come back from a 3-0 lead in the playoffs, meaning that the Warriors will almost certainly be heading back to the NBA Finals. Let’s take a look at what the best bets are for tonight’s Game 5.
Please note that all odds and lines are from FanDuel Sportsbook and were accurate at 2:00 PM EST. Be sure to check for line movement or odd changes.
Best Bets of the Night
Game: Dallas Mavericks at Golden State Warriors -6.5 (GSW Leads 3-1)
Bet #1: Dallas Mavericks, +6.5 (-110)
We like Dallas to keep it close. Perhaps Dallas has a 10-point lead going into the third quarter which the Warriors could then overtake in the second half. Regardless of the scenario, the Mavericks won against a Warriors team that still put up 109 points in Game 4 on close to 50% shooting from the field. Dallas shot above 50% from the field in Game 4 and took many shots to get there just like they did in Game 7 of the Western Conference Semis against the Phoenix Suns. Even Jalen Brunson said in the post-game interview with the guys from Inside the NBA that his team needs to "take it one game at a time (...) like four Game 7s."
While the Warriors are in it to win it tonight, the Mavericks seem to perform best when facing elimination this 2022 postseason. While they might lose tonight, the Mavericks seem to play well under pressure. As a result, take them +7 tonight as the Warriors will have a bigger challenge on their hands than they anticipate.
Bet #2: Over 215.5 Total Points (-110)
In two of the series’ four games, both teams combined for at least 220 points. In Game 2, 243 points were scored while in Game 4, there were 228 points tallied. The Mavericks shoot more when facing elimination. This has been a trend we have seen throughout the postseason. In Game 7 of the Western Conference Semis, the Mavericks scored 123 points while in Game 4 against the Warriors on Tuesday, Dallas scored 119 points. Not much more needs to be said about the Warriors’ high-power offense that will likely outscore Dallas regardless of how many points they get on the board.
NBA Player Props of the Night
Game: Dallas Mavericks at Golden State Warriors -6.5 (GSW Leads 3-1)
Prop #1: Dorian Finney-Smith Over 11.5 Points
Dorian Finney-Smith erupted for 23 points in Game 4 to help the Mavericks rally past the Warriors. Throughout the 2022 playoffs, he’s averaged 11.6 PPG shooting 46.5% from the field. He’s also seeing 38.2 minutes per contest this postseason. Expect Finney-Smith to score at least 12 points tonight after his 23-points in Game 4.
Prop #2: Klay Thompson Over 18.5 Points
Klay Thompson was held to 12 points scored in Game 4. Despite going 5-of-10 from the field, Klay was limited by Dallas on defense in 28 minutes on the floor on Tuesday night. He should definitely be taking more shots tonight and perform better overall being back home for a Game 5. Thompson should easily hit at least 20+ points tonight, and take a handful more shots from the field in this contest than in Tuesday’s.
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