The NFL kicked off November with some of the biggest divisional matchups of the season: a former underdog evened the score in the AFC East, the dominant team took the lead in the NFC West, and that Steelers-Ravens game was a real nail-biter right up until the last second.
The #Steelers now own the second-best #SuperBowlLV odds after beating the #Ravens to improve to 7-0.… https://t.co/2TV3fazOpg— Steelers Now (@Steelers Now) 1604429236.0
Lamar Jackson said that the #Chiefs are the #Ravens "kryptonite" - what does it make the Steelers? Lamar's career… https://t.co/Sc6PC3vYYM— Dov Kleiman (@Dov Kleiman) 1604421264.0
If you're competing for your own divisional title in your fantasy league, here are the drops, swaps and shops to make in Week 9.
Syndication: The Indianapolis Star Colin Boyle/IndyStar via Imagn Content Services, LLC
Alie-Cox had promising performances in Weeks 2-4, but after a knee injury sidelined him in Week 5, he hasn't been much of a fantasy factor since then. While he recently returned in Week 8, his workload has gone to Jack Doyle and Trey Burton, meaning Alie-Cox is third in line for tight end work. He's only rostered in three percent of ESPN Leagues, but if Mo Alie-Cox is still on your roster, it's best to leave him on the wire.
Also, some notes on the Colts' target share since Burton's return in Week 4: Frank Reich was literally showing Bu… https://t.co/b5dQX8MICM— Isaiah Sirois (@Isaiah Sirois) 1603156609.0
Syndication: The Enquirer Kareem Elgazzar via Imagn Content Services, LLC
After a bye week and two weeks out with injury, Corey Davis was sitting on waiver wires everywhere until last week—he was picked up in 30.4 percent of leagues, and he's now rostered in 52.4 percent of them. Chances are 50/50 as to whether he's available or not, but do whatever you have to land the number one receiver in the Titans offense. In Week 8, Davis landed eight catches for 128 yards and a touchdown, so it looks like this guy is back on track for a significant season.
Conversely look at the difference for Corey Davis. Again small sample but he has performed SIGNIFICANTLY better wit… https://t.co/RvwTHpDfYN— Jordan Richards (@Jordan Richards) 1604423138.0
NFL: Carolina Panthers at Green Bay Packers Jeff Hanisch-USA TODAY Sports
Don't let his fantasy points fool you: DJ Moore is a high risk, high reward play, but he's been pretty high reward the past few weeks. Three weeks in a row, Moore turned four or five passes into 93 yards each game, scoring three touchdowns in that three-game spread. While he doesn't get a lot of targets per game, Moore is a deep threat that sees a lot of opportunities, especially for touchdowns, so he's an ideal flex for the remainder of this season.
Receiving Yds #NFL 1. DeAndre Hopkins 704 2. Stefon Diggs 695 3. Robby Anderson 688 4. DK Metcalf 680 5. Calvin Ri… https://t.co/TjL0wAVLp4— El Ovoide (@El Ovoide) 1604416111.0
NFL: Seattle Seahawks at Arizona Cardinals Billy Hardiman-USA TODAY Sports
Coming off a bye week, Chase Edmonds is ready to run the Arizona backfield as the top RB option in Week 9. With Kenyan Drake expected to be out for the next few weeks, Edmonds could be someone you want to trade for if you have a few extra wide receivers and lack RB depth. Edmonds is a pass-catching back, which bolsters his fantasy value enough to make him a safe bet as long as he starts.
@Rotoworld_FB Oh really, I was only expecting to ride Chase Edmonds to glory the next few weeks. I’m just gonna go… https://t.co/xE71IXJ7Q4— Flex RB (@Flex RB) 1604328579.0
NFL: New England Patriots at Buffalo Bills Rich Barnes-USA TODAY Sports
In a game prediction I wrote for PatriotMaven, I predicted that Bill Belichick would force the Bills to rely on the run. While that turned out to be true, what I didn't anticipate was that Zack Moss would be so good at it. In his highest amount of snaps this season, Moss took 14 carries for 81 yards and two touchdowns. It seems more and more like Moss is the future of the Bills backfield—if he's available in your league, invest in him for the remainder of the Bills' season.
@thadbrown7 Zack Moss be like. https://t.co/fWBp9ndPRu— #BILLSMAFIA-TJDMCR (@#BILLSMAFIA-TJDMCR) 1604425044.0
NFL: San Francisco 49ers at Seattle Seahawks Joe Nicholson-USA TODAY Sports
As we said in Week 7, the 49ers roster is like a revolving door: each week, a new player gets injured, and a new guy comes to take his place. With Deebo Samuel and George Kittle out, Nick Mullens is likely to rely on Bourne, who is owned in only 9.3 percent of ESPN leagues. As with many NFL teams at this point in the season, Bourne is a sure bet because… he's the only one left to bet on.
WR Pickups: Owned in less than 50% of leagues Curtis Samuel Mecole Hardman Marvin Hall Jakobi Meyers Denzel Mims… https://t.co/MdsF0gTDlR— TheFantasyInsiders (@TheFantasyInsiders) 1604419683.0
NFL: Washington Football Team at New York Giants Robert Deutsch-USA TODAY Sports
If you are reeling from the loss of Kittle and Bourne isn't right for your roster, consider picking up Logan Thomas. While his target share is concerning, Thomas made the most of his catches by scoring a touchdown in each of his last two games. Although he got four targets, he scored second in most major receiving categories in Week 7, and he stands to benefit against the Giants in Week 9 and from being in football's worst division this year.
TE Pickups: Owned in less than 50% of leagues Eric Ebron Trey Burton Jordan Reed Logan Thomas Ross Dwelley Albert… https://t.co/FD5oS4L4JR— TheFantasyInsiders (@TheFantasyInsiders) 1604436361.0
After three consecutive victories, the Golden State Warriors conceded Game 4 of the Western Conference Finals to the Dallas Mavericks. In Game 5, the Warriors will look to close out Luka Doncic and the Mavs in front of the home crowd. As a team, the Warriors were efficient from the field, converting 48.8% of their shots taken. One of the main reasons Golden State lost was a result of poor free-throw shooting. The Warriors missed nine of their 27 free throws on Tuesday night (65.4 FT%). In comparison, the Mavericks were full-throttle in Game 4 facing elimination. Dallas’ Reggie Bullock (18 PTS) and Dorian Finney Smith (23 PTS) combined for 42 points, adding to Luka’s 30.
Ultimately, no team has ever come back from a 3-0 lead in the playoffs, meaning that the Warriors will almost certainly be heading back to the NBA Finals. Let’s take a look at what the best bets are for tonight’s Game 5.
Please note that all odds and lines are from FanDuel Sportsbook and were accurate at 2:00 PM EST. Be sure to check for line movement or odd changes.
Best Bets of the Night
Game: Dallas Mavericks at Golden State Warriors -6.5 (GSW Leads 3-1)
Bet #1: Dallas Mavericks, +6.5 (-110)
We like Dallas to keep it close. Perhaps Dallas has a 10-point lead going into the third quarter which the Warriors could then overtake in the second half. Regardless of the scenario, the Mavericks won against a Warriors team that still put up 109 points in Game 4 on close to 50% shooting from the field. Dallas shot above 50% from the field in Game 4 and took many shots to get there just like they did in Game 7 of the Western Conference Semis against the Phoenix Suns. Even Jalen Brunson said in the post-game interview with the guys from Inside the NBA that his team needs to "take it one game at a time (...) like four Game 7s."
While the Warriors are in it to win it tonight, the Mavericks seem to perform best when facing elimination this 2022 postseason. While they might lose tonight, the Mavericks seem to play well under pressure. As a result, take them +7 tonight as the Warriors will have a bigger challenge on their hands than they anticipate.
Bet #2: Over 215.5 Total Points (-110)
In two of the series’ four games, both teams combined for at least 220 points. In Game 2, 243 points were scored while in Game 4, there were 228 points tallied. The Mavericks shoot more when facing elimination. This has been a trend we have seen throughout the postseason. In Game 7 of the Western Conference Semis, the Mavericks scored 123 points while in Game 4 against the Warriors on Tuesday, Dallas scored 119 points. Not much more needs to be said about the Warriors’ high-power offense that will likely outscore Dallas regardless of how many points they get on the board.
NBA Player Props of the Night
Game: Dallas Mavericks at Golden State Warriors -6.5 (GSW Leads 3-1)
Prop #1: Dorian Finney-Smith Over 11.5 Points
Dorian Finney-Smith erupted for 23 points in Game 4 to help the Mavericks rally past the Warriors. Throughout the 2022 playoffs, he’s averaged 11.6 PPG shooting 46.5% from the field. He’s also seeing 38.2 minutes per contest this postseason. Expect Finney-Smith to score at least 12 points tonight after his 23-points in Game 4.
Prop #2: Klay Thompson Over 18.5 Points
Klay Thompson was held to 12 points scored in Game 4. Despite going 5-of-10 from the field, Klay was limited by Dallas on defense in 28 minutes on the floor on Tuesday night. He should definitely be taking more shots tonight and perform better overall being back home for a Game 5. Thompson should easily hit at least 20+ points tonight, and take a handful more shots from the field in this contest than in Tuesday’s.
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In Game 3 of the Eastern Conference Finals, Bam Adebayo's 31-point and 10-rebound double-double led the Miami Heat to a 109-103 victory over the Celtics on the road. That was followed by a dominant second-half performance by Stephen Curry and Andrew Wiggins who led the Warriors to a 3-0 lead in the Western Conference Finals.
Tonight, we'll get the first of these two matchups. Boston will look to come back in their second home game against a Heat team that is clearly not at 100% healthy. Tyler Herro has been ruled out for Game 4 while Kyle Lowry remains questionable. Here are some of the best bets for tonight's and tomorrow's big Game 4s.
Please note that all odds and lines are from FanDuel Sportsbook and were accurate at 3:30 PM EST. Be sure to check for line movement or odd changes.
ECF Game 4: Miami Heat at Boston Celtics -7 (MIA Leads 2-1)
In Game 4, the Celtics rallied back from double-digits to make things interesting in the fourth quarter. However, Boston conceded Game 3 to the Miami Heat 109-103. On Sunday, Bam Adebayo was getting everything he wanted down low. He finished with 31 points, 10 boards, six assists, four steals, and one block. Ime Udoka will need to boost the presence of his big men down low, perhaps by extending Daniel Theis’ minutes or having him share the floor more with Al Horford. The major reason for which the Heat are considered the seven-point underdogs for tonight’s game is injuries. Tyler Herro has already been ruled out for Game 4, and the Heat have four or five other players in their lineup currently listed as questionable. This includes Max Struss, Kyle Lowry, Jimmy Butler, and P.J. Tucker. Butler is dealing with knee inflammation which sidelined him for the second half of Game 3.
Even if all of the players in the Heat’s rotation are good to go tonight (outside of Herro), Boston has not lost back-to-back home games since late October. Plus, Jaylen Brown is shooting much better than he did earlier in the postseason. In fact, he’s elevated his shooting to 50% from the field through the 2021-22 playoffs through 14 games played. Expect Boston to bounce back big in Game 4, with multiple players on the Miami Heat not at full strength.
The Pick: Boston Celtics -7 (-110)
WCF Game 4: Golden State Warriors at Dallas Mavericks -1 (GSW Leads 3-0)
Well, it’s looking like the Golden State Warriors are returning to the NBA Finals. With the emergence of Jordan Poole late this season and into the postseason, Andrew Wiggins’ First-Team All-Star season, and Klay Thompson’s return to basketball, Golden State has been simply phenomenal. Golden State is simply that good this year, with anyone on the team capable of stepping up. Stephen Curry erupted in Game 3, while it was Andrew Wiggins that caught fire in the second half of Game 4. Any given night, the Warriors have one or two guys who they can count on for scoring approximately 25+ points. Considering the Mavericks' struggles this round, particularly behind the three-point line, bettors should go with the Warriors as the slight underdog. Teams get swept sometimes. Just ask the Brooklyn Nets. The Warriors will bring out the brooms and sweep the Mavericks as they punch their ticket to the NBA Finals Tuesday night.
The Pick: Golden State Warriors ML -104
NBA Player Props
Golden State Warriors at Dallas Mavericks -1 (GSW Leads 3-0)
Prop #1: Stephen Curry, Over 27.5 Points
Stephen Curry has scored 31 points and 32 points over the last two games. He’s done so by converting at least 50% from the field in each contest. It makes sense that he would score at least 28 points in a series-clinching victory tomorrow night. Curry is averaging 27.1 PPG on 45.9% this postseason but has certainly put up more points and done so more efficiently over the last few games.
Prop #2: Luka Doncic, Over 3.5 Threes
Luka has drained nine three-pointers over the last two games. He’s knocked down at least four threes in three of his last four contests. Facing elimination and hoping to not let down the home crowd in back-to-back home playoff games, Doncic will convert at least four baskets from downtown in Game 4.
Jimmy Butler, Tyler Herro, Bam Adebayo, and the Miami Heat held their own against the Celtics in Game 1 of the Eastern Conference Finals. Likewise, Andrew Wiggins and Stephen Curry led the Warriors to a 112-87 blowout over Luka Doncic and the Dallas Mavericks. Tonight, the Celtics play their second game on the road against the Heat. On Friday night, the Mavericks will look to bounce back after shooting horrifically in Game 1.
Let’s take a look at the best bets for the two NBA Conference Final Game 2 matchups set for 8:30 PM EST. tonight and 9:00 PM EST. tomorrow night.
Please note that all odds and lines are from FanDuel Sportsbook and were accurate at 4:30 PM EST. Be sure to check for line movement or odd changes.
Best Bets of the Night
Game: Boston Celtics at Miami Heat -2 (MIA Leads 1-0)
After a nail-biting series with the Milwaukee Bucks that the Celtics won in grandiose fashion, Boston conceded Game 1 of the Eastern Conference Finals to the Miami Heat. Tonight, they play Game 2 of the series at the FTX Arena and hope to bounce back from Tuesday’s 11-point loss. One of the principal reasons for their defeat in Game 1 was the absence of Marcus Smart (foot sprain) and Al Horford (health & safety protocols). It remained a relatively close game until the third quarter in which the Celtics were outscored 14-3 to begin the second half. Derrick White filled in for Marcus Smart and was terribly inefficient from the field. He scored three points (1-4 FG) and had four assists in 29 minutes filling in for the Defensive Player of the Year. In contrast, Max Struss and Gabe Vincent did a terrific job of filling in for Kyle Lowry, combining for 28 points on 9-of-19 shooting. In addition, Tyler Herro had a good night with a pivotal 18 points (7-15 FG) off the bench. Fortunately for the Celtics, both Smart and Horford are expected to return tonight.
Head Coach Ime Udoka indicated to reporters today that Smart was probable to play this evening. Horford was cleared of health and safety protocols today making him available for tonight’s contest. For those of you who have watched the Celtics this postseason, Horford and Smart have upped their play and have been absolutely integral to the team’s success. Tonight, let’s take the Boston Celtics to take a game on the road in the same fashion that they took two road games from the Bucks in the last series.
The Pick: Boston Celtics ML +108
Tonight's Best NBA Player Props
Game: Boston Celtics at Miami Heat -2 (MIA Leads 1-0)
Prop#1: Gabe Vincent Over 9.5 Points
Prop#2: Al Horford Over 9.5 Points
Tomorrow Night's Best NBA Bet
Game: Dallas Mavericks at Golden State -6 (GSW Leads 1-0)
Dallas was annihilated by Golden State in Game 1 of the Western Conference Finals. This comes after the Mavs blew out the Phoenix Suns on the road in impressive fashion, punching their ticket to the next round of the playoffs for a series against the Warriors. Golden State shot an impressive 56.1% from the field in the opening game and finished with 112 points. Just as important as the offensive production, Golden State clamped down on defense. The Warriors contained Luka Doncic, who converted just six of his 18 field goals on his way to 20 points. Andrew Wiggins did an excellent job guarding the young playmaker. Luka's teammates didn't help out much either as the Mavericks shot 36% from the field in Game 1, and 22.9% from downtown (11-48 3PT FG) for just 87 points on the night.
While I think the Warriors will win again on Friday night, expect the Mavericks to keep things more interesting after such an abysmal night shooting from the field. Dallas will make the adjustments needed to make this a competitive Game 2 in the Bay area.