March Madness

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The first day of the NCAA Tournament did not disappoint.

These kids put their hearts on the line and left every ounce of energy out on the floor. March Madness certainly lived up to its name as several upsets occurred, highlighted by the No. 15 St. Peters’s Peacocks out-shooting the No. 2 Kentucky Wildcats after a wild overtime game in the East Region. St. Peter’s became just the 10th No. 15 seed to defeat a No. 2 seed in tournament history. The upsets and overtime games didn’t stop there though. Creighton overcame a terrible first-half performance to defeat San Diego State in overtime. The No. 10 seeded San Francisco forced overtime against the No. 7 seeded Murray State but the favorite barely escaped. Murray State will have a prime opportunity to make the Sweet Sixteen now that Kentucky is out of the tournament. Will St. Peter’s be able to pull off another miracle?

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Most college basketball fans and bettors know that seeding can be quite inaccurate and it has historically proven to be true, particularly in first-round matchups between No. 5 and No. 12 seeds. Yesterday, New Mexico State held off a UConn team that many expected to make a deep run. Meanwhile, Keegan Murray’s 21 points for Iowa wasn’t quite enough to get past the No. 12 seeded Richmond Spiders. And although the No. 11 Michigan Wolverines were technically the favorite over Colorado State at most sportsbooks, Michigan was able to pull away fairly comfortably in the second half for the most-expected “upset” of the first day.

Other upsets were fairly close to happening. Arkansas survived an upset bid by the No. 13 seeded Vermont Catamounts in the West Region while fellow No. 4 seed, UCLA, just sneaked by Akron in the East Region. In the Midwest Region, the No. 13 seeded South Dakota State had a shot at taking down Providence but eventually lost, 66-57.

Thus far today, there have not been nearly as many upsets. It’s looking like Notre Dame (who had to survive a play-in game) is about to defeat the No. 6 seed in the West Region, Alabama. Outside of that, the favorites have dominated, though the No. 10 seeded Miami snuck by USC by two points. But Miami will have to face one of the top teams in the tournament in the second round, the Auburn Tigers.

Although we still have some games left to be played today to determine the final second-round matchups, let’s take a look at some exploitable matchups that we know we’ll see on television this weekend from a betting perspective. There are still plenty of upsets to come so it’s time to analyze the matchups and make some money at FanDuel Sportsbook.

Please Note: All odds are accurate from FanDuel Sportsbook as of 6:00 PM EST. on Friday, March 18.

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March Madness Round Of 32 Betting Guide

No. 8 UNC vs. No. 1 Baylor (-5.5)

At the time of publication, the Baylor Bears are 5.5-point favorites heading into a difficult matchup against an organization with some of the best basketball history in the NCAA. North Carolina absolutely destroyed Marquette yesterday in what was expected to be a very even matchup. The Tar Heels (25-9) blew out Marquette, 95-63 in the largest margin of victory in an 8-9 game in NCAA Tournament history. Baylor, the defending National Champions, have a tough task ahead of them. While I think Baylor will ultimately win this game due to their electrifying defense and strong coaching, UNC is known for making games close when they enter as the underdog. In fact, North Carolina is 8-2 overall and 7-3-0 against the spread in its last 10 games. The Tar Heels put up an average of 78 points per game, 14.8 more points than the 63.2 that the Baylor Bears allow. And North Carolina is 15-12-1 against the spread and 22-7 overall when it scores more than 63.2 points. If UNC can continue to score at a high rate (90+ points yesterday against Marquette), they should keep this game close enough to cover.

The Pick: UNC (+5.5)

No. 11 Michigan vs. No. 3 Tennessee (-5.5)

This is another game with a 5.5-point spread but I think Tennessee isn’t getting the respect they deserve. The Volunteers could have been a top seed in the tournament, that’s how good this squad is. Tennessee dismantled Longwood yesterday, winning by a whopping 32 points. They won the SEC tournament, relying on a seven-man rotation for the most part. This team’s conditioning is outstanding. Coach Rick Barnes likes to play small ball but 6’9” senior, John Fulkerson, will be pivotal in this matchup. Although he usually comes off the bench, he has tons of experience and is Tennessee’s most valuable passer out of the post. Considering he comes off the bench, his 5+ rebounds and over a blocked shot per game are quite impressive. Despite the fact that Fulkerson is the most important big and Kennedy Chandler is the team’s best all-around player, Santiago Vescovi and Josiah Jordan-James will be the reason Tennessee continues to thrive in the biggest tournament of the year.

Three-point shooting matters more than ever during March Madness and Vescovi is a threat that Michigan will have to clamp down on to have any chance at pulling the upset off. Vescovi is second on the team with 13.4 points per game in large part due to his 39.6 percent clip from long range. He nails just about three three-pointers per contest. Plus, he’s a decent ball distributor (over three assists per game). Jordan-James on the other hand is a more physical guard. Surprisingly, he leads the team in rebounds (over six boards per game) and blocked shots. He also averages 1.5 steals per game and still managed to average over 10 points per game this season. He’s a bit like Draymond Green but he’s a guard. He does all the little things that will allow Kennedy Chandler to do his thing and put the Wolverines away.

Although Michigan defeated Colorado State by eight points and covered the spread, Michigan has gone 14-17 against the spread this year. Tennessee went 21-13 against the spread and has covered in seven of their previous 10 matchups. They only lost one of those 10 outings.

The Volunteers are more gifted on both ends of the floor and have a much deeper bench. Bettors should comfortably ride Tennessee to the Sweet 16. I wouldn’t be surprised if they made a run at a Final Four appearance.

The Pick: Tennessee (-5.5)

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No. 5 St. Mary’s Gaels vs. No. 4 UCLA Bruins (-2.5)

UCLA was almost ousted by Akron last night so they have to be on high alert against a much better program tomorrow. This is a tough game to analyze simply because St. Mary’s does not have the elite athletes that wear Bruin uniforms. That said, coach Randy Bennett has clearly drawn up a playing style that systematically works with his personnel. The Gaels are all about tempo and shooting. This is the highest seed ever awarded to St. Mary’s and I would not be the least bit surprised if UCLA gets beaten by a team with fewer electric athletes. If you can hit from long range, you can beat anyone on any given day. St. Mary’s is great at forcing opponents to play to their preferred style of play. Heck, they beat Gonzaga one of the three times they faced off this season.

However, UCLA is a very physical team led by experienced college basketball veterans. Tyger Campbell will play a pivotal role in this matchup. He’s going to have to find the right balance between pushing the pace and slowing the game down. The Bruins also get to the charity stripe much more than the Gaels. That could be what decides this nail-biter. Still, after UCLA was last season’s tournament darling, I could see St. Mary’s winning this game outright. To be a bit safer, I’ll just take the points. After all, Saint Mary’s is 21-13-1 against the spread while UCLA is 18-15-1 against the spread this season. The magic number for the Gaels is going to be 63. The Gaels put up an average of 70.1 points per game, 7.5 more points than the 62.6 the Bruins allow to opponents. Saint Mary’s is 20-1 overall when it scores more than 62.6 points. If they score 63 points against UCLA’s debilitating defense, they will pull off the upset.

The Pick: St. Mary’s (+2.5)

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No. 12 Richmond Spiders vs. No. 4 Providence Friars (-2.5)

Despite the large gap in seeds, Providence barely escaped Vermont while the Richmond Spiders delivered Iowa a shocker of an upset in the first round. Both teams are coming off first-round performances in which they shut down very effective offenses. Providence limited South Dakota State to 57 points despite the fact that SDU is the 14th-ranked offense according to KenPom. Meanwhile, the Spiders held the third-ranked offense in the country in Iowa to 63 points, allowing just a 36% conversion rate from the field.

I’ll be the first to admit that I didn’t see Richmond coming, mainly because they aren’t a team known for their defense. I thought they would get smoked by Iowa. However, the Spiders have turned it around and have allowed just 62.4 points per game over their previous five contests. Richmond also has some momentum after defeating Davidson in the A10 Tournament Finals before upsetting Iowa in the first round of the big dance.

Providence was actually the team I expected to get upset in the first round by South Dakota State, partially due to their embarrassing loss to Creighton in the Conference semi-finals. They were blown out, 85-58. Perhaps I put too much emphasis on that performance (or lack of performance) considering the only other two losses Providence has suffered in their last 16 games were both to Villanova.

Overall, these teams are very similar when it comes to offensive production. Richmond averages 103.7 points per 100 possessions while Providence averages 103.5. Doesn’t get much closer than that. I think the difference in this game is going to be on the boards. Not only do the Friars have some very solid shooters in Jared Bynum and A.J. Reeves but they also have a huge advantage on the glass. Providence is 66th in the nation in rebound rate but the Spiders are just 285th. Had Providence not defeated South Dakota on the boards by eight, they may have lost that game.

Richmond’s senior point guard, Jacob Gilyard (13.6 PTS, 5.4 ASTs, 3 STLs per game), will do everything in his power to will his team to victory but I think the rebounding and shooting advantages may be too much to overcome. The Friars are 21-6 ATS in their last 27 games against a team with a winning percentage above .600. Look for that trend to continue.

The Pick: Providence (-2.5)

No. 15 St. Peter’s Peacocks vs. No. 7 Murray State Racers (-9)

Last but not least, let’s see if the Peacocks can keep this Cinderella story going after defeating Kentucky in overtime last night. Despite knocking out a powerhouse of a team on Thursday, I expect St. Peters’ story to end tomorrow at the hands of the Racers. Although Murray State has only covered the spread in four of their last 10 games, they were victorious in all 10 of those contests.

Although the Peacocks are a good three-point shooting team (35.4%) and are shooting an effective field goal percentage of 48.2%, St. Peters tends to try to score more inside. If I were coaching, I’d tell them to shoot more from long range since they aren’t much better from inside the arc than from beyond. St. Peters is converting just 46.1% of their two-point shots this season. We have to give the Peacocks credit for defeating the Wildcats but any time a team handicapped 22 points wins outright, there is a bit of luck involved. That luck will run out against the Racers.

Murray State is pretty strong on both sides of the ball. The Racers are holding teams to 29.8% from three-point range and 50.7% on two-pointers. The Racers have earned 20.6% of turnovers and held teams to 25.3% offensive rebounds. Those are pretty elite stats in college basketball. Not to mention, Murray State does an excellent job at keeping their core group of players out of foul trouble.

On the other side of the ball, the Racers are beasts on the offensive glass, earning 35.3% of offensive rebounds. K.J. Williams has been phenomenal this year averaging 18.2 points, 8.5 rebounds, and 1.5 steals per game while converting 54.5% of his attempts from the field and 33.6% of his shots from long range. Williams’ shooting percentages pretty much go hand in hand with how the entire team shoots as a whole.

The Peacocks have been a defensive team this entire season but they have a propensity for being too physical and racking up unnecessary fouls. Everybody loves an underdog but the buck stops with Murray State. While I don’t particularly love the significant spread, this team is coming off a 95-point effort against San Francisco (a superior team to St. Peters). The Racers score 79.7 points per game, 17.4 more points than the 62.3 the Peacocks give up. And when Murray State puts up more than 62.3 points, it is 15-7-1 against the spread and 26-0 overall. Lay the points and lock Murray State to move onto the Sweet Sixteen.

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Andrew Wiggins and Jayson Tatum

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In Game 5 of the NBA Finals, the Warriors defended the home floor to take a 3-2 lead in the finals over the Boston Celtics. Largely, this is because Boston was careless with the basketball. The Warriors tallied nine steals and forced 18 turnovers by the Celtics. In contrast, the Warriors only got the ball stolen twice and turned the ball over just six times Monday night. While Stephen Curry was guarded ferociously and was held to just 16 points on 7-of-22 shooting (and 0-9 from downtown), his teammates stepped up.

Andrew Wiggins had another huge double-double, scoring 26 points (12-23 FG) and hauling in 13 rebounds. Finally, if the Celtics hope to win in Game 6, they will need to stay awake in the fourth quarter. Over the last two games, Boston has fallen asleep at the end of the game while the Warriors managed to sneak away with two consecutive victories.

Let's take a look at some of tonight's best bets for this huge NBA Finals Game 6.

Please Note: All betting odds were correct today as of 2:00 pm EST from Caesars Sportsbook

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Best Bets of the Night

Golden State Warriors at Boston Celtics -4 (GSW Leads 3-2)

NBA Finals Best Bet #1: Boston Celtics -4 (-110)

It’s difficult to envision the Boston Celtics collapsing in the fourth quarter in three consecutive games. The Celtics may briefly watch the tape from Game 5 but they are going to have to shake it off and move forward immediately. Boston’s carelessness with the basketball Monday night should produce a much-needed wake-up call that will allow the team to make smarter passes and take fewer risks on offense against a Golden State defense that has surged over the last two games.

While Steph will likely score more than 16 points in Game 6, Jaylen Brown must have a bounce-back performance after going 5-of-18 for 18 points in Game 5. Though the Celtics shot above 40% from the field on Monday night, they turned the ball over at an uncharacteristic rate, finishing the night with 18 turnovers. Some of those were unforced errors while the Warriors earned nine steals as well.

At home in Game 6, the Celtics will play better and bring this 2022 NBA Finals series to a blockbuster Game 7 at the Chase Center. For NBA fans wishing for a seven-game series in the 2022 Finals and bettors looking to cash in on Game 6, Boston will win by at least four points at home in a win-or-go-home scenario. Jayson Tatum has yet to play his best basketball this series with Andrew Wiggins playing lethal defense but tonight will be the night that he finally drops 30+ points. Although Steve Kerr seems to think his squad is ready to close out the series, he may have to think again given how well Boston has bounced back from losses this postseason.

Don’t forget that the Celtics were in a three-game to two-game deficit against the Miami Heat in the Eastern Conference Finals yet found a way to come out victorious. They may not be able to win two straight against Golden State but it’s tough to imagine the Warriors defeating the Celtics in three consecutive matchups. Boston wins by a few possessions: 110-104.

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NBA Finals Best Bet #2: Over (O/U) 210 Total Points (-110)

Though only 204 points were scored between both teams in Game 5 (BOS 97 - 107 GSW), Game 6 will be a higher-scoring contest for multiple reasons. First, Jaylen Brown will have a bounce-back night. After being held to 18 points on 27.8% shooting from the field on Monday, Brown will almost certainly play more efficiently and score more in Game 6. Additionally, Boston had way fewer scoring opportunities due to their whopping 18 turnovers. Ima Udoke will make sure his starters take care of the ball in a game that can decide Boston’s fate. Marcus Smart and Al Horford have come up huge as role players but Tatum needs to really shift into an entirely new gear. Don’t be surprised if that happens tonight.

The story through Games 4 and 5 has been the same. Golden State has stepped it up on defense, managing to out-rebound the Celtics in both contests. Robert Williams III might have something to say about that tonight. In Game 6, the Celtics should be more cautious with the ball and therefore have more opportunities than they did over the last two contests. Meanwhile, the Warriors are always expected to drop at least 105+ points.

NBA Player Props

Golden State Warriors at Boston Celtics -4 (GSW Leads 3-2)

Prop #1: Andrew Wiggins To Record a Double-Double (+225)

Throughout these NBA Finals, Andrew Wiggins has been on an absolute tear. Just over the last two contests where he finished both with double-doubles, he’s recorded 29 rebounds and 43 points. He has adapted his style of play and is spending more time down low in the post to help the Warriors out on the glass. Wiggins is putting significant pressure on Robert Williams III, Al Horford, and Jayson Tatum to rebounds the ball more efficiently. Not only is Wiggins keeping his scoring numbers up, he’s drastically improved on the defensive end to record 49 rebounds (9.8 rebounds per game in the Finals) through the first five games of this series. Wiggins’ shift to focus on rebounding and keeping the pressure down low has worked brilliantly for the Warriors over the last two games, both of which they won. In Game 6, expect him to continue to do what has been working, giving him a great chance to produce a third consecutive double-double in the NBA Finals. Perhaps he can even win the NBA Finals MVP Award if he continues to play at this level. Wiggins has been the true x-factor for the Dubs in this series.

Prop #2: Jaylen Brown Over 24.5 Points (-110)

After a rough shooting night in Game 5 where Brown only converted on five of his 18 shots from the field, he should wake up and score 25+ points in Game 6 at TD Garden. While you may want to stick away from three-point shooting props involving brown right now, he’ll hit the over in points tonight at the TD Garden. Brown has only scored over 24 points in one of five games this series (27 points in Game 3) but the Celtics do much better when Brown and Tatum perform like the perennial All-Stars that they are.

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Stephen Curry, Golden State Warriors

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In Game 4 of the 2022 NBA Finals, Stephen Curry and the Warriors executed exactly where they didn’t in Game 3 to tie up the series 2-2. Notably, Golden State dominated down low Friday night after being outrebounded and suffocated by the Celtics in Game 3. As a team, the Warriors recorded 16 offensive boards for a total of 55 rebounds for the night. For instance, Draymond Green struggled Wednesday night to finish the night with only four rebounds and three assists before fouling out in the fourth quarter.

In Game 4, Draymond dominated down low for eight rebounds, eight assists, and four steals without getting himself into foul trouble (only three PFs for Green in Game 4 after fouling out in Game 3).

Best Bets of the Night

Game: Boston Celtics at Golden State Warriors - 4 (-110)

Similar to Game 3, both teams shot the ball rather evenly. The Warriors finished the night with 44% shooting from the field, and 34.9% from downtown. The Celtics converted 40% of the field goal attempts and 39.5% of their shots from deep. One factor which helped Golden State keep up with the Celtics throughout the game was terrific rebounding. Andrew Wiggins stepped it up off the glass to produce a 17-point and 16-rebound double-double. What really caused the Celtics to lose in Game 3 was a complete offensive collapse in the fourth quarter.

With seven minutes remaining in the game, the Celtics had a 91-86 lead over Golden State. That means Boston was outscored 21-6 in the second half of the fourth quarter to lose Game 4 107-97. With Golden State back home, expect their offense to shoot better than they did on the road and secure a home victory in Game 5.

Bet: Golden State Warriors -4 (-110)

Throughout the 2022 NBA Playoffs, the Warriors shot 49.4% from the field and 40.7% from downtown in 11 games played at home. For their nine road games, the Warriors were less efficient on average averaging 47.2 FG% (2.2% less efficient from the field) and 34.9% (-5.8% less efficient from 3PT range). The numbers reveal clearly that for the 2022 NBA Playoffs, the Warriors have been more efficient scoring. With the prospect of taking a 3-2 lead over the Celtics, its likely that Stephen Curry and Klay Thompson have another big night in front of the home crowd.

Bet: Over (O/U) 212.5 Total Points (-110)

While only 204 points were scored in Game 4, expect Game 5 to be a much higher-scoring game. In addition to the Warriors shooting much better from the field, the team seems to have found some efficiency against the bigger Celtics down low. These two factors could push the Warriors to score 120+ points in Game 5. In turn, Jayson Tatum who scored 23 points (8-23 FG) will bounce back to have a 30+ point game. Both he and Steph are scoring big these NBA Finals.

While the defense was the main story of Games 3 and 4 at the TD Garden, scoring buckets will be the principal feature of Game 5 at the Chase Center. With him and Stephen Curry averaging more than 34 PPG through these finals, you can count on Game 5 in Golden State to be a high-scoring game.

NBA Player Props

Game: Boston Celtics at Golden State Warriors - 4 (-110)

Prop: Jayson Tatum, Over 26.5 Points

Jayson Tatum, like the rest of the Celtics, started hot but finished ice cold. If it wasn’t for the fourth quarter where Tatum shot the ball multiple times unsuccessfully. This negatively impacted his shooting numbers from Game 4 where he finished the night with 23 points (8-23 FG) converting only 34.9% of his shots taken. After a disappointing Friday night, Tatum will shoot more efficiently in Game 5. Since he still scored 23 points on an off-night, you can count on Tatum to score 30+ points in Game 5 even if the Warriors defeat the Celtics.

Prop: Andrew Wiggins, Over 6.5 Rebounds

One of the major adjustments made by the Warriors in Game 4 was boosting their presence off the glass. Andrew Wiggins recorded 16 of Golden State’s 55 rebounds Friday night.

Through the first four games of the NBA Finals, Wiggins has recorded a total of 34 rebounds. That means Wiggins is averaging 8.5 rebounds per game in the 2022 NBA Finals. Especially because the Warriors know how effective he was producing much-needed rebounds in Game 4, Wiggins will look to have a similar presence down-low in Game 5.

Boston Celtics, NBA Finals Game 3

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In Game 3, both teams shot almost equally well from the field and from downtown. However, Boston took more shots from the field and dominated off the glass to take Game 3 116-100. Boston’s defensive energy was on full display Wednesday night as they outrebounded and drew countless fouls from the Warriors. Boston’s defense was the story of Game 3. Will Klay Thompson and Stephen Curry overwhelm the Celtics in Game 4?

Let’s take a look at some of tonight’s best bets for Game 4 of the 2022 NBA Finals.

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Best Bets of the Night

Game: Golden State Warriors at Boston Celtics Game 4 (BOS Leads 2-1)

In Game 3, both teams shot virtually as efficiently from the field. The Celtics converted 48.3% of their shots (43-89 FG) from the field and went 37.1% from downtown. Golden State finished the night with a 46.2 FG% (36-78 FG) as a team, converting 37.5% from beyond the arc. The main reason for the Celtics’ victory was fantastic defense. For instance, Robert Williams III who isn’t 100% healthy, played 26 minutes to produce 10 points, eight rebounds, and four blocks. The Celtics dominated the Warriors off the glass to record 47 rebounds as a team with 15 of them recorded on the offensive end. In contrast, the Warriors totaled 31 rebounds on the game and only had six offensive rebounds. In addition, the Warriors committed 23 personal fouls allowing the Celtics to go to the line 24 times (Celtics were 17-24 FT) and had 16 turnovers as a team. For the Warriors to bounce back in Game 4, they will need to be more aggressive down low and less sloppy on the floor.

Bet #1: Golden State Warriors, +4 (-110)

The Warriors shot the ball well in Game 3, but were simply overwhelmed by the Celtics defense and the energy at the TD Garden Wednesday night. Golden State recorded 39 combined turnovers (16) and personal fouls (23) which demonstrates how sloppy they were with the basketball. This gave Boston a possession advantage throughout the game, ultimately allowing the Celtics to take 11 more field goal attempts and finish the night with seven more made FGs than the Warriors. Offensive efficiency is not the issue for the Warriors. Rather, they will need to ramp it up on defense in Game 4 to make the game interesting. Draymond Green fouled out of the contest after being shut down all night. Green was held to just two points, four rebounds, three assists, and two turnovers in 35 minutes on the floor before getting a sixth personal foul in Game 3.

Bet #2: Over (O/U) 215 Total Points (-110)

Though the Warriors were held to 100 points of offense on Wednesday night, they shot the ball well. Golden State was limited as a team for FGAs as a result of Boston’s defense. In Game 4, Golden State will have an answer to put up more points on the board than they did in Game 3. In turn, the Celtics will keep things interesting. Expect this Game 4 to be a high-scoring contest. Both teams have been scoring big throughout these playoffs, and that doesn't seem to be changing right now during the Finals.

NBA Player Props

Game: Golden State Warriors at Boston Celtics Game 4 (BOS Leads 2-1)

Prop #1: Klay Thompson, Over 19.5 Points

Klay Thompson started the night shooting very well but cooled down towards the end. He went five for a whopping 13 attempts from downtown Wednesday night. He finished the night 7-of-17 from the field for 25 points. This comes after a terrible Game 2 performance where Klay went 4-of-19 from the field and only one-of-eight from beyond-the-arc. Tonight, Klay will shoot better tonight after an average Game 3 performance and bad Games 1 and 2.

Prop #2: Jaylen Brown, Over 2.5 Threes

Jaylen Brown has been knocking his shots from downtown as of late. In the last two games, he’s recorded at least three threes. He’s gone 7-of-17 (41.1%) from downtown through Games 2 and 3 combined. In the second of two home games at the TD Garden, it’s likely that Brown knocks down at least three buckets from beyond-the-arc tonight in Game 4.

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