UNC Tar Heels
Many sports fans wanted to see coach K’s last dance go all the way.
I even heard multiple UNC fans over live radio this week say they’d ultimately be happy for Duke and the legendary head coach if they defeated the Tar Heels on Saturday night. No. 8 UNC defeated the No. 2 Duke Blue Devils 81-77 in a thrilling Final Four matchup. No. 1 Kansas took care of business against No. 2 Villanova, and the championship is set to tip off tonight at 9:20 PM EST. Let’s take a look at the best bets of the night.
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Spread: No. 8 UNC Tarheels at No.1 Kansas Jayhawks -4
The four-point spread for tonight’s game is close. Other books are listing Kansas at -4.5 but FanDuel has this game currently listed as a four-point spread. However, it makes the most betting sense to take North Carolina +4 with -105 odds, instead of Kansas -4. If you agree and like UNC, you may want to check out other books where they are getting better odds.
Kansas remains the favorite for tonight’s game as they have cruised all the way to the championship without much difficulty. North Carolina will not give this game up easily, and I think they have a good chance to win. UNC’s success began with a 93-86 win over No. 1 Baylor in a huge second-round upset. They then took out No. 4 UCLA during the Sweet Sixteen and annihilated the Cinderella No. 15 Saint Peter’s in the Elite Eight. Beating Duke on Saturday was the icing on top of the cake for UNC’s phenomenal performance in this tournament. Jalen Wilson and David McCormick of the Jayhawks are solid down low but may struggle against UNC’s Armando Bacot, who hauled in 21 boards against Duke Saturday night. Although Naismith Player of the Year Finalist Ochai Agbaji finally broke out of his mini-slump in the Elite Eight and Final Four (18 points against Miami and 21 points against Villanova), North Carolina’s R.J. Davis is just as capable of putting points on the scoreboard, knocking down 30 points against No. 1 Baylor in the second round and 18 points against Duke in the Final Four. I say the Tar Heels keep things interesting and cover the four-point spread tonight. In fact, North Carolina has a legitimate shot at winning this game outright.
The Pick: UNC Tarheels, +4
Moneyline: UNC +158 / Kansas -192
Whenever a No. 1 seed plays against a lower seed such as No. 8 UNC in this case, the odds cannot have UNC as the favorites despite how much success they’ve had. Kansas has done what they’ve been expected to do, and to be fair, they are the only No. 1 seed that made it to the Final Four. Nothing can take that away. But a -192 moneyline wager for Kansas tonight simply isn’t worth it unless you’re betting big (At least $50 - $100). Therefore, if you are a smaller bettor, it makes much more sense to put $10 to $20 on UNC considering the odds. I really think this will be a more even game than the moneyline currently indicates, but Kansas is undeniably the favorite. Between the spread, moneyline, and total points, I would advise bettors to avoid the moneyline tonight as it seems like it was designed to break people’s hearts. I am not placing a bet on the moneyline tonight, but if I did, I would take UNC at +158.
The Pick: UNC Tarheels +158
Total Points: Over / Under 151.5 Points
UNC has averaged 78.1 points per game this season. Throughout the tournament, they scored the following totals in each game from the first round to the Final Four: 95 points against No. 9 Marquette, 93 points against No. 1 Baylor, 73 points against No. 4 UCLA, 69 points against No. 15 Saint Peters, and 81 Points against No. 2 Duke. North Carolina has averaged 82.2 PPG throughout March Madness, four points more per game than the team’s regular-season scoring average. It’s also important to recognize that UNC’s Elite Eight matchup against Saint Peters was a particularly low-scoring contest.
Kansas averaged a nearly identical 78.4 PPG this season but actually averaged slightly less during the tournament, despite winning each of their games by at least five points. I think this will be a relatively high-scoring affair tonight as both teams like to push the pace and are more known for their offenses than their defenses. Both teams should produce or exceed their respective averages (combined season total of 156.5 points). Finally, Kansas was lights out from the field against Villanova in the Final Four by draining 13 three-pointers and shooting 52.4% from deep. I think Kansas will continue to knock down shots at a high rate but UNC will fight back, just as they did against the Blue Devils. Therefore, tonight it makes sense to take the Over at 151.5 points.
The Pick: Total Points, Over 151.5 Points
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North Carolina to Cover +7.5 and 150+ Total Points Scored in Game
This is the best bet of the night because North Carolina could lose by seven points (though I think they have a good shot at winning) and the total is two points fewer than the current Over / Under (151.5). FanDuel is offering these boosted odds with a $50 maximum bet per user. The current spread for UNC is +4. This promotion is a no-brainer and just another reason to create an account with FanDuel Sportsbook.
Kansas Jayhawks
It’s been a crazy tournament full of wild upsets and thrilling finishes.
Despite the early-round upsets highlighted by the No. 15 seeded St. Peter’s Peacocks reaching the Elite Eight, we now have four blueblood teams that many expected to reach the Final Four (outside of the No. 8 seed UNC). Fans and sports bettors will be treated to two awesome games as the Duke Blue Devils will face the University of Carolina Tarheels and the Kansas Jayhawks will face the Villanova Wildcats. After an incredibly unpredictable first four rounds of action, Kansas is the only No. 1 seed remaining. However, according to FanDuel Sportsbook, Duke is the slight favorite to win it all at +150 with Kansas slightly trailing at +185. Meanwhile, Villanova is listed at +450 and North Carolina is the biggest longshot at +500.
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Now let’s dive into each game and find the best bets for these two matchups.
No. 2 Villanova Wildcats vs. No. 1 Kansas Jayhawks (-4.5)
Villanova has thrived over the last decade. They have one of the best programs in the country and are led by arguably the best coach in all of college basketball once Mike Krzyzewski retires after this season. Although Jay Wright has led the team to a nine-game winning streak and a second-place finish in the Big East, it feels like the Wildcats are not getting the respect they deserve, despite being a No. 2 seed in the tournament.
Villanova is just two wins away from its third NCAA Tournament since 2016. This program has evolved into one of the best programs in all of college basketball. That said, they did have one of the easier paths to the Final Four. Nova crushed Deleware in the first round by 20 points before cruising past Ohio State (71-61) for a trip to the Sweet Sixteen. Fortunately for the Wildcats, the No. 3 Tennessee Volunteers fell flat on their faces against the No. 11 Michigan Wolverines. Michigan played a good game but Nova advanced to the Elite Eight after a hard-fought eight-point victory. Yet again, the Wildcats lucked out as the top seed in the region, Arizona, were upset by the No. 5 Houston Cougars. While Houston is a decent team, they are nowhere nearly as talented as Arizona. Nova played one of their worst games of the tournament against Houston, converting a dismal 28.8% of their field-goal attempts. They also lost their second-leading scorer, Justin Moore, after he suffered a torn Achilles tendon. Despite all of that, Houston couldn’t take advantage of their opportunity and Villanova’s 15-of-15 from the charity stripe sealed the deal and clinched a spot in the Final Four.
Nova ranks in the top 10 in offensive efficiency, the top 20 in defensive efficiency, and are ninth in overall efficiency. However, they have yet to be truly tested by an elite team. That will change on Saturday when they face the Kansas Jayhawks. And without Justin Moore, Jermaine Samuels is going to have to play the game of his life. Samuels has scored in double figures and has converted at least 55% of his shots in all four games to this point in the tournament. The Senior forward is coming off a 16-point, 10-rebound double-double against Houston.
Kansas was the only No. 1 seed to reach the Final Four but they actually had an even easier path than Villanova. The Jayhawks have yet to face a team ranked in KenPom’s Top 25. The Jayhawks trounced Texas Southern by 27 points before meeting a decent Creighton team in the second round. Despite not being in the starting lineup, Remy Martin willed Kansas to victory with a team-high 20 points, seven rebounds, and four assists in 29 minutes off the bench. Martin only averaged 8.6 points per game in the regular season so his performance was critical as Kansas edged Creighton in the second round by seven points.
Next up in the Sweet Sixteen, the Jayhawks were challenged by the Providence Friars, the No. 4 seed in the Region. Providence led with under six minutes remaining before Kansas turned on the jets. Once again, Martin was extremely clutch off the bench with a game-high and season-high 23 points in 27 minutes. Jalen Wilson was just as pivotal in the Jayhawks’ five-point victory, as he tallied 16 points and 10 rebounds. Fortunately for Kansas, both Auburn and Wisconsin (the No. 2 and No. 3 seeds in the Midwest Region) were upset in the second round. Therefore, the Jayhawks only had to beat the No. 10 Miami Hurricanes to advance to the Final Four. Kansas trailed by six at halftime before producing perhaps their best half of basketball all season. They quickly erased the deficit and won by a whopping 26 points. After sixth man Remy Martin led the team in scoring in the first three games of the tournament, Naismith Player of the Year Finalist Ochai Agbaji finally produced a solid stat line with a game-high 18 points while converting 75% of his field goals.
So now, two of the top coaches in college basketball – Jay Wright and Bill Self – will face off for a chance at the title. Both coaches have tons of experience and both teams have a boatload of talent. That said, Kansas is the clear favorite. This will be the second game of the tournament that Villanova will enter as the underdog (they were three-point dogs against Houston).
Losing Justin Moore could be the reason that Nova’s championship aspirations get cut short this weekend. Not only did they lose their second-best scorer but the Wildcats are not a team known for their depth. Caleb Daniels has been an excellent sixth-man but he will likely enter the starting lineup and nobody else on the bench has averaged more than 10 minutes per game. That could be a huge problem for Nova.
Meanwhile, Kansas is one of the deepest teams in the country. Kansas has gotten this far despite mediocre performances from Big 12 Player of the Year Ochai Agbaji and big man David McCormack. Both finally performed well in the Elite Eight but the fact that Kansas was able to get that far despite their top players underperforming is a testament to their depth.
Considering the fact that Kansas has huge momentum after overcoming a deficit at the half in the Elite Eight and their much deeper bench, I expect the Jayhawks to win this game by a decent margin. Now with Agbaji and McCormack having broken through the glass, the Jayhawks should cover the spread against the undermanned Villanova Wildcats.
The Pick: Kansas -4.5
University of North Carolina Tar Heels vs. Duke Blue Devils (-4)
Will this be Coach K’s last game? North Carolina would love to disrupt a storybook ending for the greatest college basketball coach in the history of the game. Despite Coach K’s age, his team is a group of youthful energetic kids, but we have witnessed these young men mature on their way to the Final Four. The Blue Devils have had to face some very tough opponents yet they have survived unscathed. Duke lucked out in avoiding a matchup with Gonzaga but they still had to beat Arkansas (who defeated Gonzaga) in the Elite Eight, a ferocious Texas Tech squad in the Sweet Sixteen, and a solid Michigan State team in the second round of the tournament.
Duke has been incredibly clutch and their ability to get buckets in crunch time has been instrumental in their success. The Blue Devils have a ton of offensive firepower but the Tar Heels might be the only team that can match Duke’s high-powered offense.
North Carolina erupted for 95 points and a 32-point margin of victory over Marquette in the first round of the tournament. Then, they shocked the world by defeating Baylor, the No. 1 seed in the East in a thrilling overtime game. But the fun didn’t end there. These Tar Heels like being the underdog and in the Sweet Sixteen, they upset the No. 4 UCLA Bruins. Ironically, their easiest game was in the Elite Eight when they dispatched the Cinderella team of the tournament – St. Peters – by a whopping 20 points.
North Carolina and Duke have been ACC rivals for as long as anyone can remember and this year, they play very similar styles. Interestingly enough, neither of these teams won the ACC Tournament this year. Virginia Tech defeated Duke in the championship game back on March 12. That’s the last time Duke lost. UNC hasn’t suffered a defeat since also losing to Virginia Tech in the semi-finals of the ACC Tournament. North Carolina lost by 13 points and Duke lost by 15 points. Don’t forget that North Carolina (despite being an 11-point underdog) defeated Duke in early March. The seeding in this matchup is irrelevant. The Tar Heels are playing like a top-10 team in the nation right now.
Both of these programs can do a little bit of everything. Both teams are great in transition and can get up and down the court in an instant, yet they each also are some of the best halfcourt teams in all of college basketball. Duke has the coaching edge (Krzyzewski over Hubert Davis) and Duke has the more talented lineup with immense upside. When all of Duke’s offensive weapons are on point, they are nearly unstoppable, evidenced by their second-half performance in the Sweet Sixteen against Texas Tech when they converted 70.8% of their field goals. Duke's Paolo Banchero may be a top-five pick in this year’s NBA Draft. He will be the best player on the court during this matchup. Duke ranks as the most efficient offense in the country according to KenPom. There is no way to truly stop the Blue Devils. But North Carolina might be able to outscore them. Duke is also the worst defensive team of the teams still alive. We have seen UNC pull off plenty of upsets and we have already seen them defeat Duke earlier this month.
All that said, I believe that the Blue Devils have matured immensely throughout this tournament and while I’m iffy about the spread, I’m confident that they will defeat the Tar Heels and advance to the championship game.
The Pick: Duke ML (-196)
March Madness
The first day of the NCAA Tournament did not disappoint.
These kids put their hearts on the line and left every ounce of energy out on the floor. March Madness certainly lived up to its name as several upsets occurred, highlighted by the No. 15 St. Peters’s Peacocks out-shooting the No. 2 Kentucky Wildcats after a wild overtime game in the East Region. St. Peter’s became just the 10th No. 15 seed to defeat a No. 2 seed in tournament history. The upsets and overtime games didn’t stop there though. Creighton overcame a terrible first-half performance to defeat San Diego State in overtime. The No. 10 seeded San Francisco forced overtime against the No. 7 seeded Murray State but the favorite barely escaped. Murray State will have a prime opportunity to make the Sweet Sixteen now that Kentucky is out of the tournament. Will St. Peter’s be able to pull off another miracle?
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Most college basketball fans and bettors know that seeding can be quite inaccurate and it has historically proven to be true, particularly in first-round matchups between No. 5 and No. 12 seeds. Yesterday, New Mexico State held off a UConn team that many expected to make a deep run. Meanwhile, Keegan Murray’s 21 points for Iowa wasn’t quite enough to get past the No. 12 seeded Richmond Spiders. And although the No. 11 Michigan Wolverines were technically the favorite over Colorado State at most sportsbooks, Michigan was able to pull away fairly comfortably in the second half for the most-expected “upset” of the first day.
Other upsets were fairly close to happening. Arkansas survived an upset bid by the No. 13 seeded Vermont Catamounts in the West Region while fellow No. 4 seed, UCLA, just sneaked by Akron in the East Region. In the Midwest Region, the No. 13 seeded South Dakota State had a shot at taking down Providence but eventually lost, 66-57.
Thus far today, there have not been nearly as many upsets. It’s looking like Notre Dame (who had to survive a play-in game) is about to defeat the No. 6 seed in the West Region, Alabama. Outside of that, the favorites have dominated, though the No. 10 seeded Miami snuck by USC by two points. But Miami will have to face one of the top teams in the tournament in the second round, the Auburn Tigers.
Although we still have some games left to be played today to determine the final second-round matchups, let’s take a look at some exploitable matchups that we know we’ll see on television this weekend from a betting perspective. There are still plenty of upsets to come so it’s time to analyze the matchups and make some money at FanDuel Sportsbook.
Please Note: All odds are accurate from FanDuel Sportsbook as of 6:00 PM EST. on Friday, March 18.
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March Madness Round Of 32 Betting Guide
No. 8 UNC vs. No. 1 Baylor (-5.5)
At the time of publication, the Baylor Bears are 5.5-point favorites heading into a difficult matchup against an organization with some of the best basketball history in the NCAA. North Carolina absolutely destroyed Marquette yesterday in what was expected to be a very even matchup. The Tar Heels (25-9) blew out Marquette, 95-63 in the largest margin of victory in an 8-9 game in NCAA Tournament history. Baylor, the defending National Champions, have a tough task ahead of them. While I think Baylor will ultimately win this game due to their electrifying defense and strong coaching, UNC is known for making games close when they enter as the underdog. In fact, North Carolina is 8-2 overall and 7-3-0 against the spread in its last 10 games. The Tar Heels put up an average of 78 points per game, 14.8 more points than the 63.2 that the Baylor Bears allow. And North Carolina is 15-12-1 against the spread and 22-7 overall when it scores more than 63.2 points. If UNC can continue to score at a high rate (90+ points yesterday against Marquette), they should keep this game close enough to cover.
The Pick: UNC (+5.5)
No. 11 Michigan vs. No. 3 Tennessee (-5.5)
This is another game with a 5.5-point spread but I think Tennessee isn’t getting the respect they deserve. The Volunteers could have been a top seed in the tournament, that’s how good this squad is. Tennessee dismantled Longwood yesterday, winning by a whopping 32 points. They won the SEC tournament, relying on a seven-man rotation for the most part. This team’s conditioning is outstanding. Coach Rick Barnes likes to play small ball but 6’9” senior, John Fulkerson, will be pivotal in this matchup. Although he usually comes off the bench, he has tons of experience and is Tennessee’s most valuable passer out of the post. Considering he comes off the bench, his 5+ rebounds and over a blocked shot per game are quite impressive. Despite the fact that Fulkerson is the most important big and Kennedy Chandler is the team’s best all-around player, Santiago Vescovi and Josiah Jordan-James will be the reason Tennessee continues to thrive in the biggest tournament of the year.
Three-point shooting matters more than ever during March Madness and Vescovi is a threat that Michigan will have to clamp down on to have any chance at pulling the upset off. Vescovi is second on the team with 13.4 points per game in large part due to his 39.6 percent clip from long range. He nails just about three three-pointers per contest. Plus, he’s a decent ball distributor (over three assists per game). Jordan-James on the other hand is a more physical guard. Surprisingly, he leads the team in rebounds (over six boards per game) and blocked shots. He also averages 1.5 steals per game and still managed to average over 10 points per game this season. He’s a bit like Draymond Green but he’s a guard. He does all the little things that will allow Kennedy Chandler to do his thing and put the Wolverines away.
Although Michigan defeated Colorado State by eight points and covered the spread, Michigan has gone 14-17 against the spread this year. Tennessee went 21-13 against the spread and has covered in seven of their previous 10 matchups. They only lost one of those 10 outings.
The Volunteers are more gifted on both ends of the floor and have a much deeper bench. Bettors should comfortably ride Tennessee to the Sweet 16. I wouldn’t be surprised if they made a run at a Final Four appearance.
The Pick: Tennessee (-5.5)
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No. 5 St. Mary’s Gaels vs. No. 4 UCLA Bruins (-2.5)
UCLA was almost ousted by Akron last night so they have to be on high alert against a much better program tomorrow. This is a tough game to analyze simply because St. Mary’s does not have the elite athletes that wear Bruin uniforms. That said, coach Randy Bennett has clearly drawn up a playing style that systematically works with his personnel. The Gaels are all about tempo and shooting. This is the highest seed ever awarded to St. Mary’s and I would not be the least bit surprised if UCLA gets beaten by a team with fewer electric athletes. If you can hit from long range, you can beat anyone on any given day. St. Mary’s is great at forcing opponents to play to their preferred style of play. Heck, they beat Gonzaga one of the three times they faced off this season.
However, UCLA is a very physical team led by experienced college basketball veterans. Tyger Campbell will play a pivotal role in this matchup. He’s going to have to find the right balance between pushing the pace and slowing the game down. The Bruins also get to the charity stripe much more than the Gaels. That could be what decides this nail-biter. Still, after UCLA was last season’s tournament darling, I could see St. Mary’s winning this game outright. To be a bit safer, I’ll just take the points. After all, Saint Mary’s is 21-13-1 against the spread while UCLA is 18-15-1 against the spread this season. The magic number for the Gaels is going to be 63. The Gaels put up an average of 70.1 points per game, 7.5 more points than the 62.6 the Bruins allow to opponents. Saint Mary’s is 20-1 overall when it scores more than 62.6 points. If they score 63 points against UCLA’s debilitating defense, they will pull off the upset.
The Pick: St. Mary’s (+2.5)
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No. 12 Richmond Spiders vs. No. 4 Providence Friars (-2.5)
Despite the large gap in seeds, Providence barely escaped Vermont while the Richmond Spiders delivered Iowa a shocker of an upset in the first round. Both teams are coming off first-round performances in which they shut down very effective offenses. Providence limited South Dakota State to 57 points despite the fact that SDU is the 14th-ranked offense according to KenPom. Meanwhile, the Spiders held the third-ranked offense in the country in Iowa to 63 points, allowing just a 36% conversion rate from the field.
I’ll be the first to admit that I didn’t see Richmond coming, mainly because they aren’t a team known for their defense. I thought they would get smoked by Iowa. However, the Spiders have turned it around and have allowed just 62.4 points per game over their previous five contests. Richmond also has some momentum after defeating Davidson in the A10 Tournament Finals before upsetting Iowa in the first round of the big dance.
Providence was actually the team I expected to get upset in the first round by South Dakota State, partially due to their embarrassing loss to Creighton in the Conference semi-finals. They were blown out, 85-58. Perhaps I put too much emphasis on that performance (or lack of performance) considering the only other two losses Providence has suffered in their last 16 games were both to Villanova.
Overall, these teams are very similar when it comes to offensive production. Richmond averages 103.7 points per 100 possessions while Providence averages 103.5. Doesn’t get much closer than that. I think the difference in this game is going to be on the boards. Not only do the Friars have some very solid shooters in Jared Bynum and A.J. Reeves but they also have a huge advantage on the glass. Providence is 66th in the nation in rebound rate but the Spiders are just 285th. Had Providence not defeated South Dakota on the boards by eight, they may have lost that game.
Richmond’s senior point guard, Jacob Gilyard (13.6 PTS, 5.4 ASTs, 3 STLs per game), will do everything in his power to will his team to victory but I think the rebounding and shooting advantages may be too much to overcome. The Friars are 21-6 ATS in their last 27 games against a team with a winning percentage above .600. Look for that trend to continue.
The Pick: Providence (-2.5)
No. 15 St. Peter’s Peacocks vs. No. 7 Murray State Racers (-9)
Last but not least, let’s see if the Peacocks can keep this Cinderella story going after defeating Kentucky in overtime last night. Despite knocking out a powerhouse of a team on Thursday, I expect St. Peters’ story to end tomorrow at the hands of the Racers. Although Murray State has only covered the spread in four of their last 10 games, they were victorious in all 10 of those contests.
Although the Peacocks are a good three-point shooting team (35.4%) and are shooting an effective field goal percentage of 48.2%, St. Peters tends to try to score more inside. If I were coaching, I’d tell them to shoot more from long range since they aren’t much better from inside the arc than from beyond. St. Peters is converting just 46.1% of their two-point shots this season. We have to give the Peacocks credit for defeating the Wildcats but any time a team handicapped 22 points wins outright, there is a bit of luck involved. That luck will run out against the Racers.
Murray State is pretty strong on both sides of the ball. The Racers are holding teams to 29.8% from three-point range and 50.7% on two-pointers. The Racers have earned 20.6% of turnovers and held teams to 25.3% offensive rebounds. Those are pretty elite stats in college basketball. Not to mention, Murray State does an excellent job at keeping their core group of players out of foul trouble.
On the other side of the ball, the Racers are beasts on the offensive glass, earning 35.3% of offensive rebounds. K.J. Williams has been phenomenal this year averaging 18.2 points, 8.5 rebounds, and 1.5 steals per game while converting 54.5% of his attempts from the field and 33.6% of his shots from long range. Williams’ shooting percentages pretty much go hand in hand with how the entire team shoots as a whole.
The Peacocks have been a defensive team this entire season but they have a propensity for being too physical and racking up unnecessary fouls. Everybody loves an underdog but the buck stops with Murray State. While I don’t particularly love the significant spread, this team is coming off a 95-point effort against San Francisco (a superior team to St. Peters). The Racers score 79.7 points per game, 17.4 more points than the 62.3 the Peacocks give up. And when Murray State puts up more than 62.3 points, it is 15-7-1 against the spread and 26-0 overall. Lay the points and lock Murray State to move onto the Sweet Sixteen.
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