Picks, Parlays, and Props for Week 1
Betting on the NFL in week one is a little bit like trying to hit a bullseye with a butcher knife, while blindfolded and blacked out. Other than that, it's a breeze.
You have nothing to base your wagers on besides some meaningless play and training camp murmurs. This season will be no exception EXCEPT given the COVID truncated offseason, there's one thing you can value more than any other year: Continuity.
If the Chiefs taught us anything from the Thursday night shellacking of the Texans, it's that all that money they shelled out to keep their absurd level of talent was worth it. Not just because it's better to have more talent than the other team, it is, but also because if you can keep as much of a championship squad together from one year to the next, you have a better chance of that squad continuing to play in the rhythm they've already established.
The Chiefs ran it back with their coordinators, all their speedy wide receivers, their terrorizing twosome on the defensive line, their All-Pro tight end, and plugged in LSU's double threat running back Clyde Edwards-Helaire. Put all that together, Andy Reid might be lining up for free cheeseburgers in Kansas City with two Super Bowl rings in 2021.
So, betting-wise, where does that leave us? Looking for teams who have established chemistry and culture. I'm looking for teams that are bringing the band back against teams that are trotting out untested rosters and fresh coaching staffs. I'd also say it's safe to bet against some truly bottom-of-the-barrel, no-hope-in-sight, dreadful teams.
Battle Tested vs. Newbs
Ravens -7.5 over Browns
Colts -8 over Jaguars
Bills -6.5 over Jets
Eagles -5.5 over Football Team
Steelers -6 over Giants
Saints -3.5 over Bucs
Titans -2.5 over Broncos
The Ravens come off one of the most efficient offensive seasons ever, period. All they did was add talent around their transcendentally talented QB. The Browns were, well, the Browns and thus they overhauled the coaching staff. This is a make-or-break year for Baker and his receivers, who could put it together later in the year, but not against a definitive Super Bowl contender in their first game under new head coach Kevin Stefanski's system.
The Colts built the most dominant offensive line in football, drafted a running back made of bowling balls powered by rocket fuel, and signed a quarterback who takes the phrase "wily vet" to a whole new level. Meanwhile, the Jaguars are so very bad. They've either cut, traded away, or chosen not to resign their most talented players over the past two years and given Gardner Minshew little to work with heading into 2020.
The Bills competed last season with Josh Allen operating as a deep ball throwing machine or a running option with little in between. They've added weapons, like Stefon Diggs, to bring some balance and their defense will be disruptive as ever. The Jets, last time I checked, are still coached by Adam Gase. They would need players at every level of the offense and defense to make significant leaps to be competitive this decade, especially after trading away Jamal Adams for no immediate help.
The Eagles soar under Doug Pederson, Carson Wentz, and a game-wrecking defensive line, which all return intact. If they can keep even halfway decent receivers on the field for a game or two and get some run out of the intriguing Miles Sanders, I like their chances against virtually any opponent. The Washington Football Team is so disorganized that they can't even pick a name or respond to multiple reports of harassment without slipping all over themselves. Not to mention, Ron Rivera is dealing with cancer treatments (get well soon!), which means Jack Del Rio is running practice in his absence. Not exactly an ideal situation to inspire the team to be ready for week 1.
The Steelers boast one of the most steady-handed coaching staffs in the NFL. Big Ben returns to lead the offense and their defense played so well down the stretch that they almost dragged Mason Rudolph into the playoffs. The Giants have a whole new coaching staff, which includes the underwhelming Jason Garrett at OC, and a second year QB throwing to guys who've seen better days or haven't reached their potential. Look for Roethlisberger and the Steelers to hit their stride early.
The Saints return a team with no real holes on offense or defense and actually upgraded by signing Emmanuel Sanders over Ted Ginn Jr. Not to mention, Sean Payton's connection with Drew Brees remains strong. The Bucs have acquired more talent in one off season in recent memory. It all looks good on paper, but practically they have a 43 year old QB and a 31 year old tight end that's already retired once after dealing with just about every injury imaginable. This has the Eagles' Dream team disaster written all over it. Don't believe the hype, trust in the team that's been at the top of the NFC South for the past 3 seasons in the Saints.
The Titans bring back an offense that had been firing on all cylinders behind Ryan Tannehill, a brutalizing rushing attack, and the work of wunderkind OC Arthur Smith. Plus, they gassed up their defense by signing Javedeon Clowney. The Broncos just lost their most important player, Von Miller, which greatly diminishes their pass rush and overall effectiveness on D. Drew Lock looked serviceable in his limited starts last year, but how much could he improve in an off season like this? Especially when Courtland Sutton's questionable for the game and the rookie, Jerry Jeudy, only has a month of hands on experience in the offense.
Here's the thing about this column and these picks. I don't necessarily expect to rip off a seven-teamer out of the starting gate, like I'm some kind of psychic on a hot streak. However, these games all fit the bill of what I'm looking for in value. Play 'em as a three, four, or five team parlay and give it a ride.
For something completely different, these games all fit under a tried and true bettor's rule: Go against west coast teams on the road playing east coast teams. The idea of travel and playing While this maxim isn't foolproof, it certainly gives you a good base to work from when deciding where to put your money.
Panthers +3 over Raiders
Bengals +3 over Chargers
Falcons +2.5 over Seahawks
The Panthers may have finished last season on an eight game slide, but look at those games, even with Kyle Allen at QB, they played a lot of good teams close. Now with Teddy Bridgewater, who's looked above average, under the tutelage of Matt Rhule and Joe Brady, the college football whiz kid, the ceiling has been raised. However, the Raiders under Jon Gruden have seemed to teeter between mediocre and utter mess. There's nothing they did this off season that would make me feel they deserve 3 points on the road.
The Bengals drafted the man who should be the franchise, Joe Burrow, and, by all accounts, he's been everything and more since arriving in Cincy. One other thing to note here, the Bengals played the Seahawks to a 21-20 nail-biter in Week 1. I wouldn't call it a trend, but, perhaps, Zac Taylor can prep even a 2-win team to a close game if you give him all off season. Let's just say this year's Chargers aren't last year's Seahawks. Their D will be stout, but the offense is unproven. Gimme those points.
The Falcons finished last season hot, saving Dan Quinn's job in the process. Quinn, who was Seattle's DC for their championship run, knows his former team better than just about anyone else. These teams met last year, and after Seattle broke it open early, it ended up a one score game. Which sums up the value here, the Seahawks were in twelve (12!) games that came down to one score. It's a running joke that Seattle never plays in a normal game, I don't expect one this Sunday.
As a three-teamer, this pays out at +700. If only two of the three suit your fancy, I'd recommend parlaying those, as well.
Dolphins over Patriots
The Dolphins took down the Patriots in Week 17 last season in a game that Brady and co. needed to win. Brian Flores, former Pats coach, knows Belichick well and coached his scrappy team above their pay grade in his first year. The Dolphins went on a shopping spree, adding talent all up and down their roster, and cashed in some draft capital. Meanwhile, the Pats replace Brady with Cam Newton, but didn't do much else, except have a handful of players opt out of the season. This one will be close and the value of +240 is enough to get a few shekels from me.
That's all for me to start the season. Let's hope all these come up winners and we can check back next week to count our profits.
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The Best NFL Prop Bet Research Tool Is Finally Here
Until now, there was a void in the industry. An all-in-one prop bet research tool for Over/Under rankings did not exist. Fantasy SP has changed that.
Of course, you could find betting trends on the internet but there wasn’t a place where you could have all the information for every single player on the same page at your fingertips. Well, we wanted to change that. We’ve created the definitive NFL prop bet research tool for pros and newbies alike.
In a typical NFL week, there can be over 1,000 player prop lines available. Traditional player game logs are not optimal for researching player props. Our unique tool allows you to quickly analyze thousands of lines on your phone, tablet, or computer, and find the props with the greatest value. Don’t just bet on the players you like. Become more data-driven with your props research by using Fantasy SP’s Player Prop Over/Under Rankings!
This is the perfect prop bet research tool to make some serious cash. Place informed bets using relevant analytics and increase your chances of seeing your bankroll increase.
All | Pass Yds | Pass TDs| Pass Comp | Pass Att | Rush Att | Rush Yds | Rec | Rec Yds
With our brand-new Player Prop Over/Under Rankings Research Tool, users will be able to filter by tons of critical data points including home vs. away, favorite vs. underdog, player popularity, last few games, indoor vs. outdoor, specific props, specific teams, position rank, opponent rank, and so much more!
Research Prop Bet Betting Example
Okay, enough talk, and let’s get to a simple real-world example of how to use the tool to help you place a bet.
For example, Jared Goff has had some of the most ridiculous home/away splits in 2022.
Goff has a passer rating of 106.9 with 2,217 yards (277.1 yards per game), 20 touchdowns, and 3 interceptions in eight games at home this season. Pretty good, right? On the road, he has a passer rating of 82.5 with 1,387 yards (231.2 yards per game), 3 touchdowns, and 4 interceptions in six games.
As you can see, Goff is averaging 46 more yards per game at home in 2022 entering Week 16. Vegas may try to trick you when Goff is on the road after coming off a massive home game but by using our tool, you won’t be fooled.
Goff has a 5-3 O-U record on his passing yard props at Ford Field this season. While his average line at home on DraftKings is 247 yards, his average result is 277.1 passing yards. Prior to throwing for 250+ yards against the Jets at the Meadowlands in Week 15, he was 2-3 on his passing yards props on the road. His average line on DraftKings on the road was only 10 yards fewer heading into Week 15 yet he averaged a full 50 fewer yards per game (227). This shows a clear pattern that he is much more successful at hitting the over and much more efficient when playing in front of his home crowd. There are countless examples of patterns you can spot using this brand-new prop tool that are even more eye-popping than Goff’s numbers.
How to Find Favorable Prop Bets
The key to placing informed bets is to place bets on clear patterns. Ideally, you want to see a player consistently going over or under. Grab a concise list of potential bets to place and compare to the lines at your favorite operator.
Let’s say you want to place a passing yards prop bet on Tom Brady. You check all the lines at your favorite operator (we suggest
Caesars or FanDuel) and need to put his line into context. How often does he go over? What outcomes occur against an easy matchup? What is his average result? How does he do at home versus on the road?
Using our exclusive Over-Under Rankings, you can utilize our premium filters to find out Brady’s historical prop record at home versus the road is even more volatile than Goff’s splits. (This is good and what we want to see.)
At home, Brady is averaging a whopping 307.3 passing yards and has hit the over in six of seven games heading into Week 15.
On the road, while his average line is only two yards fewer (271.2 to 269.2), he has a 1-5 O-U record and is only averaging 239 passing yards per game.
Fantasy SP has just highlighted a very promising prop bet whenever Brady is at home. Take the over. And when he is on the road, it’s a prime spot to smash the under.
Some players also tend to do much better when their team is the favorite such as running backs late in the fourth quarter when their team needs to kill time. Heading into Week 15, Dalvin Cook had a 7-2 O-U rushing yard record when his team was the favorite (79.9 yards per game). Conversely, when the Vikings were underdogs, he was 1-3 (57.8 yards per game). This is why filtering by favorite or underdog can be a critical data point to help you gain an edge at sportsbooks.
You can also filter by the last few games in case a player has begun to heat up or cool off. These filters will help you nail your bets in very specific scenarios. It’s the perfect tool for situational prop betting.
What the Experts Are Saying
Don’t simply trust our word. We provided a free preview to professional bettors and journalists and this is what they had to say:
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Matthew Rumack, Professional Sports Bettor
“This tool provides insight that I haven’t seen anywhere else in the sports betting industry. Fantasy SP has developed something truly unique. The premium filters that allow me to figure out how each player has performed in very specific situations are simply next-level. I will not be placing prop bets before using this tool for research!”
Mark Morales-Smith, Senior Fantasy & Gambling Writer
“The features of this prop research tool are simply awesome. It’s easy to use, easy to understand, and incredibly powerful. There is so much data at your fingertips. This is an essential piece to finding player prop betting value.”
Dan Hickman, Professional Gambling Writer
The dropdowns and filters on this tool are what really make this a game-changing feature. If you only want to see the most popular players on the page, simply slide the popularity to 75% or 100%. If you want to see players’ over-under records and their average results for only home games, simply click Home on the dropdown. If you want to see over-under records for players against teams in the bottom 5 at defending that position, simply click Bottom 5 under Position Rank. Not only can you get all of this insight, but the sliders and dropdowns all work interactively with a user-friendly interface so you can find out how a player is doing in a very specific situation. For example, let’s say Dak Prescott and the Cowboys are hosting the top-five San Francisco 49ers defense and are four-point underdogs. To get a much clearer picture of how Prescott has performed in similar situations, you can check off Home, Underdog, Indoor, and Top 5 under Opponent Rank to get his exact over-under prop historical record in this particular situation. If he is 0-3 on his passing yard prop in this scenario, you may want to smash the under.
NFL prop betting can be overwhelming but this tool makes it easy to research the best bets for novices and seasoned vets alike. Bettors should not be placing their prop bets before doing the necessary research. Now you can do all that research on one page with Fantasy SP’s Player Prop Over/Under Rankings Research Tool! It doesn’t get much better than that.
Stay tuned for our future article on even more in-depth tips and tricks.
France vs Argentina World Cup Final Betting Preview: Can Lionel Messi Capture That Elusive World Cup Title?
Picking up where they left off in 2018, the French National Team led by 23-year-old Kylian Mbappe have found their way back into the finals as they look to be the first back-to-back World Cup Champions since Brazil’s dominant runs in 1958 and 1962. Standing between that incredible feat for the defending champions is Argentina, who currently have their superstar, Lionel Messi, in top form. Messi is finding ways to create passes no one can see and he’s done it multiple times, assisting three goals (tied for the most) throughout the tournament. The legend is also scoring goals of his own and is tied with Kylian Mbappe (5 goals) for Golden Boot honors in this year’s World Cup. Regardless, soccer fans around the world are in for a treat on Sunday at 10:00 AM EST as two of the best players in the world face each other for their country’s World Cup glory.
After winning Group D, France defeated Poland in the Round of 16, England in the quarterfinals, and a strong Morocco team in the semis to advance to the Final. On the other side of the bracket, Argentina won Group C and dispatched Australia in the Round of 16. Messi and the Argentinians were then tested in the quarterfinals, needing a penalty shootout to defeat the Netherlands after blowing a late two-goal lead. Finally, Argentina played perhaps their best match of the tournament against Croatia in the semi-finals, winning 3-0. Now the stage is set for a blockbuster finale between two powerhouses featuring some of the top players in the world.
Note (from FanDuel Sportsbook): No team will play at home during Qatar's World Cup. For betting purposes, FanDuel explains that: “Home Team refers to the team listed first, Away Team refers to the second team listed.”
Argentina (-104) vs. France (-112)
Argentina Keys To Victory
Lionel Messi has played incredibly for Argentina throughout this World Cup. He is leaving opposing defenders in the dust, taking on multiple players at once, dragging them away from his teammates, which is opening up the field for his fellow goal scorers. Every time Messi has the ball at his feet, there seems to be more than one threat. Messi is playing just as well as he always has in 2022. He’s served his team as a playmaker and as a goal-scorer in Qatar. He’s also had some help from Manchester City forward Julian Alvarez who’s scored a handful of goals in this World Cup (including two in Argentina’s decisive victory over Croatia). If Alvarez and Messi are able to link up while on the attack, the depleted French defense and midfield could be in for some trouble.
France Keys To Victory
One of the biggest headlines heading into this World Cup Final is the return of French striker Karim Benzema. The Real Madrid star and winner of this year’s Ballon D’Or hurt his hamstring in one of France’s first practices soon after arriving in Qatar. He flew back to Madrid where he immediately completed his recovery work which was set at three weeks from the time of injury. Right now, Benzema is flying back to Doha and could be starting for France in the final. At the moment, France’s HC Didier Deschamps has declined to comment on whether or not he will be including KB9 in the starting lineup. France’s ball movement has been excellent throughout the tournament, but their key to victory against Argentina will be efficient defense. Over the last few games, France’s defense seems to have slowed down. Not only will they need to stop Messi, but they will need to turn defensive stops into counterattacks. Mbappe and Olivier Giroud (four goals thus far in the tournament) will need to be electric on offense and test the Argentinian keeper. Antoine Griezmann may be an x-factor for France as he has three assists in this World Cup and was inches away from scoring against Morocco.
It’s only fitting that Lionel Messi will finally hoist the World Cup trophy in his last World Cup match. Expect him to score a goal and lead his team to victory in a tightly contested battle.
The Pick: Argentina (-104)
World Cup Final Best Prop Bets
Kylian Mbappe: To Score Or Give Assist (+100)
Mbappé has been relatively quiet over France’s last few games. Still, he is the main wing on France’s team who is capable of breaking down defenses through his skillful technique and ridiculous speed. He currently is tied with Messi for the most goals in the 2022 World Cup. If he isn’t able to score in this game, then expect him to at least make an assist. For France to win this one, the 23-year-old will need to have a big game.
Lionel Messi: Anytime Goalscorer (+190)
Messi has stepped up his performance big time this World Cup. If you have watched Argentina play in this tournament, you know how crucial of a role Messi has played in the team’s success. He is tied for the most goals in the tournament with Mbappe and has a great chance of putting the ball in the net at some point during Sunday’s big match. This is a particularly great prop to target since Messi takes all of Argentina’s penalty shots and has converted four-of-five throughout the tournament.
Fantasy SP has worked diligently to bring you next-level sports betting analytics, prop betting tools, public betting splits, and so much more! Become an Edge+ member today!
Here’s Why December Is The Best Month To Join FanDuel
Calling every sports fan across the globe! The best month for all things sports is here: December. NFL and CFB are getting into the thick of things — I mean, we are finally not seeing Alabama and Clemson in the CFP, not to mention both the NBA and NHL are underway and college basketball just tipped off!
Despite all of these different sporting events going on, the World’s biggest Sporting event is down to the Semifinals, the World Cup.
Although Soccer is the World's most popular sport, it still struggles to gain support in the US. However, every 4 years Soccer takes the country by storm and this year, and these last few games are going to be amazing.
Let us introduce you to your new go-to app, FanDuel Sportsbook. It’s the place to be for not only the usual sports, but for this year's World Cup!
FanDuel Sportsbook is providing a multitude of features with a few market differentiators.
- World Cup Winner
- Who will win the Golden Boot (the award for the top goal scorer of the World Cup)
- Highest scoring Group
- And more
- Popular Markets - outside of the normal Moneyline, Spread & Over/Under lines, FanDuel will also be offering:
- Anytime Goal Scorer
- First Goal Scorer
- Shots on Goal
- Correct Score
- Number of Corner Kicks
- Half-Time Result
- Tournament Goal Scorer Parlay Builder - build your own tournament-long Goal Scorer parlays with your favorite players from every team.
- Daily Specials:
- Highest scoring team of the day
- Total daily goals
- Player specials
- And More!
- Live Parlays
Out of all the betting apps we’ve used, signing up for FanDuel Sportsbook is also the easiest. Simply download the app and create an account by providing an email, credit card, and SS# — that’s to protect your winnings and ensure you're not a sporting professional.
FanDuel is undoubtedly the best site/app to parlay across multiple sports. It’s designed for bettors at any stage. The clear interface is ideal for beginners and you can make a bet in just a few clicks! It’s complete with a number of betting guides that explain the rules and resources to safely bet.
One of the best parts is that once the game ends, you can cash out your winnings right away. No minimum, no wait.
There’s also the incredible New User Offer: sign up with FanDuel Sportsbook and get up to $1000 in Free Bets if you lose your first bet!
Their app has everything you need — from tutorials to real-time game scores. Get amped for the World Cup with FanDuel Sportsbook. Enhance your Sportsember by downloading the FanDuel Sportsbook app today!