Picks, Parlays, and Props Week 12

I knew it was going to happen.

Not only did I fly in the face of the gambling gods and decide to comment on my little bit of good luck, I broke another cardinal rule of betting: Never put money on something just to put money on it.

Look, I couldn't resist trying to get in on some of that Taysom Hill magic. I missed on him in my fantasy leagues, and I couldn't stop myself at just taking the Saints, which did hit by the way(!), I was forced to pick an over/under on the most unknowable of the world's mysteries. Was it possible for Taysom to throw a good ball? Turns out, yes. Turns out, he can get a little more oomph on his throws, which opened up things downfield, even if they weren't always right on the money. Lessons… Noted.

For the game that sent a chill down my spine, the Dolphins lost to the Broncos. If I actually designated a "Lock of the Week," this would've been the "Lock of Lifetime." Tua had been hot, the Miami D had been stout, and the Broncos had been a state of utter disrepair. Just when you think you know football, quoting stats and pulling from trends, it absolutely humbles you into the ground.

As for the Browns covering over the Eagles that was a little bit like betting on paint drying. It was never really in doubt and it wasn't particularly interesting.

Arizona -1.5 over New England

This game has gotten a little bit tighter with each passing day, due to uncertainty regarding the availability of Kyler Murray. I'm betting on this with the assumption that he'll be starting and operating at, hopefully, 80% capacity. The Patriots couldn't handle the dynamic Deshaun Watson a week ago, and I can't imagine things will get any easier against an offense currently firing on all cylinders. The Patriots haven't been "doing their job" recently and rank 21^st in rushing yards per game and 28th in DVOA. In a seemingly impossible turn of events, their pass D is actually worse. Meanwhile, the Cardinals can flat out pound the rock. They lead the league in rushing touchdowns, rank second in rushing yards, and average the most yards per carry. Throw in some Vance Joseph defensive wizardry to confuse and bamboozle the undermanned Pats offense and I think 1.5 points is a gimme.

Kansas City -3 over Tampa Bay

I'm back to beating the Tompa Brady Bucs being, ahhhhh, not so good. As the season has worn on, there losses look bad, and their wins look worse. They've managed to beat up on some weaker teams in the league, Packers excepted, and only squeak by middle-of-the-packers like the Chargers and Giants. Against the Rams, Tom looked more his age, and missed on multiple deep throws that could've completely shifted momentum. I could go on and go about how Antonio Brown looks completely lost out there, or how their running game leaves plenty to be desired, or how Mike Evans and Chris Godwin haven't received their share of downfield targets, but really this is still all about Patrick Mahomes. The man who got the ball back with 1:43 against the Raiders, and there wasn't a second of doubt he would take his offense in for a score. It was as if the win was bestowed by a King. While the two high profile QBs prepare to square off for what is almost undoubtedly their last time, the fourth will assuredly cement Mahomes as the true heir to Brady's GOAT throne.

Seattle -5 over Philadelphia

The Seahawks have been a little shakier than we thought they were a month ago, having a bottom of the barrel pass D in a pass happy league will do that for you. Luckily, the Eagles don't have much of a pass offense to speak of with Carson Wentz taking the dreaded step back. Seattle hasn't generated much pressure all year, but the Eagles will be down All-Pro tackle Lane Johnson and his rookie backup Jack Driscoll might be unavailable, too. There's been a total lack of consistency along the line before this news broke, anyways. That's the kind of thing that absolutely helps a defensive line trying to establish their presence.

Kareem Hunt over 1.5 Receptions

Hunt has only gone under this number once all season, just last week against the Eagles. Other than he's been a tremendous asset to the Browns through the air, including four touchdowns and a few jaw dropping grabs for anyone, let alone a running back. Meanwhile, the Jaguars are on pace to have the statistically worst defense in team history. As the Browns continue to operate a strong and complimentary backfield, I think it's safe to assume this one could be wrapped up by half time.