Picks, Parlays, and Props Week 10

For about half the day, things were really looking up.

Week 9 Vibe Check (2-2) - Nailing that the Ravens were going to go into Indy and pull a win out at all costs and them delivering felt absolutely tremendous. I saw them at -1 earlier in the week, but by game time they were +1 at some books and I sincerely hope you got to bet an underdog Ravens team.

Going into the afternoon, something became apparent almost immediately: the Steelers were not covering 14 points. The Cowboys' fourth QB of the season, Garrett Gilbert, proved move effectively than the last two, combined. Not to mention, Big Ben was dealing with an injury most of the game. Here's a live look at his recovery now:

Ben Roethlisberger, feeling great, leaves the practice field three years ago.Jeremy Fowler/ESPN

Davante Parker laid out his case as Tua's top target and easily put up over 4.5 catches. Meanwhile, I need to start following my own advice or, at least, hold a negotiation with whatever deity the Chargers angered.

Seahawks +2.5 over Rams

This line feels a little too reactionary for my tastes. Sure, the Seahawks got run off the field in Buffalo, but that was bound to happen. It was a cross country road game against a passing heavy team a week after blowing out their division rival. The thing everyone's forgetting is how bad the Rams looked pre-bye. Short term memory is important to play sports, but not to bet on them. Russell Wilson has been aerial maestro this season and I'll take him with points over Jared Goff any day of the week and twice this Sunday.

Bengals +7.5 over Steelers

Right before kick off last week, my cousin inquired "-3.5 in the first quarter or -7.5 in the half for the Steelers?" Thinking, hey this Dallas team looks hardly competent enough to tie their own shoelaces, I cracked, "Why not both?" We very quickly learned why not. Even before Ben's injury, his ability to throw the deep ball has diminished in a flash. One of the league's top gunslingers has only completed 31% of his passes beyond 15 yards and gone 1 of 12 in the past two games. While the Pittsburgh D has occupied rarified air, Ben can't quite get as much under his passes as he once could. This seems to have stalled the offense, at times, even with his full assortment of weapons. On the other side, Joe Burrow has consistently looked like the QB of the future that we were all promised. He's kept Cincinnati in just about every ballgame, losing two out of the last three on last second comebacks and beating Tennessee a week ago. Give the young man a touchdown and I'm willing to ride with him.

Dolphins -1.5 over Chargers

We are trying this again, folks! Let's bet against the Chargers for a change and try to win some money. Miami come out ahead in two games against better, non-cursed teams since the Tua takeover, and their sturdy pass D has only gotten better, too. In fact, they're uniquely positioned to handle Herbert's deep ball prowess and LA's backfield is currently undermanned, limiting their ability to attack the most exploitable part of Miami's defense.

Brandon Aiyuk over 4.5 Recs

The Niners will now be without every starting skill position player except for Kendrick Bourne from last season year's battle royale in the Superdome, so... Improvement, I guess? One guy who'll be on the field that they didn't have last season or last week will be the burgeoning YAC monster, Aiyuk. After missing Thursday night's Packer beatdown due close contact to Bourne, who appears to have been a COVID false positive, the Niners will be able to implement a game plan built around their rookie receiving sensation.

That's apparently what Shanahan had done before having to pivot his schemes to 5th stringer, Richie James, who promptly had the game of his life, racking up 9 catches and 184 yards. Between Aiyuk's speed making him an even more potent deep threat than James, he's also more likely to be involved in the "run game," meaning little tap passes on jet sweeps that allow him to explode around the edge and into space. If he gets even two of those looks, he's just under halfway home.