Week 2 Monday Night Football: Packers-Lions Showdown Picks & Best Bets
Week 2 of the NFL was full of breakout performances, thrilling finishes and potentially the start of the Justin Fields era in the NFC North as the Bears' win over the Bengals finds them in first place in the division.
We cap off the week with a Monday Night Football showdown between the Packers and the Lions with the winner finding themselves tied for first in the North. The Packers put up an absolute dud of a performance last week against the Saints in Week 1 while the Lions looked surprisingly effective while playing catch-up against the West-leading 49ers. The expectations for these two teams couldn't have been further apart coming into the season but with matching 0-1 starts on the books, I think there are a couple of interesting props and roster construction angles to exploit.
NFL DFS Showdown Picks
*Prices are from DraftKings
Captain: TE T.J. Hockenson, Detroit Lions ($9,600) ($14,400)
I'm normally not a fan of playing a tight end in the captain spot, but T.J. Hockenson is not your average tight end. He finished 2020 with an elite 18% target share in the Lions' offense and picked up right where he left off in Week 1, finishing with an 18.2% share on 50 routes run last week. Hockenson has always carried premium TD upside as a red-zone target but what was most encouraging about last week was that he ran nearly 55% of his routes out of the slot, leaving him a matchup against Chandon Sullivan, who's allowing a 67% catch rate in his coverage. In a game where the Lions are projected to be down early, expect Hockenson to get fed once again. His red-zone utilization gives him enough juice to take the captain's chair in my builds.
Core Consideration: QB Jared Goff, Detroit Lions ($10,000)
Two principles I take into Showdown slates apply to this play. Generally speaking, if I have a pass-catcher as my captain, I'm finding a way to get their QB into a flex spot. The second is that your build needs to tell a story. Mine is that the Packers come out with something to prove after getting embarrassed in Week 1 and that we'll likely see upwards of 50 pass attempts from Jared Goff as he attempts to mount a comeback. Goff is a surprisingly effective passer when getting good protection and this unit gave him a clean pocket on 86.7% of snaps last week. Expect that to continue tonight as Goff will continue to feast in garbage time.
Contrarian Play: WR Randall Cobb, Green Bay Packers ($2,000)
I still chuckle at the thought of the return of Randall Cobb being on the short-list of demands from Aaron Rodgers in the midst of his holdout. I do, however, think there is something to be said about the importance of chemistry between a quarterback and his receiver and I expect that in a typical game (which Week 1 was not), Aaron Rodgers is going to find his spots to get Cobb involved. In a game script that figures to have the Packers up by a healthy margin, not many are going to look at the tertiary passing options for Green Bay and I think a $2,000 Randall Cobb could sneak in a handful of receptions at single-digit ownership..
Salary Relief: WR Amon-Ra St. Brown, Detroit Lions ($2,400)
This one fits perfectly into my narrative for the game as well. In a game where the Lions are likely to flirt with 50+ pass attempts and coming off a week where St. Brown ran routes on 75% of the team's passing plays, I will be overweight on Amon-Ra tonight. Lining up in the slot on 74.5% of plays means St. Brown will primarily see coverage from Chandon Sullivan, the most favorable of the options GB lines up in their defensive secondary. Expect St. Brown to see his target volume increase tonight. If Detroit can be more effective in getting to the red zone, he carries decent scoring upside with the way he's utilized in this offense. Plus, who doesn't love the extra motivation of playing against their big bro?
Monday Night Football Best Bets
Taking a look at the wagering side of this game; before we determine anything else we must ask ourselves what we think of these Green Bay Packers. I tend to look at last week's performance as the exception and not the rule. With that being the case, I am laying the 11.5 points and taking GB tonight. Over the past six seasons, oddsmakers have been fairly sharp when it comes to these larger spreads and NFL teams cover double-digit spreads more than 55% of the time. The total for tonight is sitting at 48.5 and given the somewhat surprising ability of the Lions to make up ground last week, I am confidently on the "over" side of that line.
Picks: Packers -11.5, OVER 48.5 points
Taking a look at the prop market, I am again mainly investing in the "GB Blowout" narrative:
D'Andre Swift: OVER 28.5 Receiving Yard
Coming off a 65-yard performance in a very similar game script, this one feels like a no-brainer. Swift averages nearly 8 yards per reception so this really boils down to whether you think he catches more than 3 passes. I certainly do and I'm confidently on the OVER for this prop. FanDuel is currently carrying the best odds at -110.
T.J. Hockenson: Anytime TD
I'm not the biggest fan of these "to score" props, but I'll break from the norm with this one. I am projecting the Lions to at least have a go at it in this game and there simply isn't a scenario where that doesn't involve a score for Hockenson. +220 odds at FanDuel sort of feels like stealing given that I see this game going over the 48.5 total.
AJ Dillon | UNDER 8.5 Rushing Attempts
I know that the betting public is forecasting a fairly comfortable win for the Packers, but let's not get carried away. AJ Dillon would have to nearly double his career average for carries to get to this number. Plus, it's a bit unlikely that this game gets so far out of reach that Green Bay brings in their backups. Even last week when they did bring in the second-stringers, Dillon only saw 4 carries. I'm expecting Aaron Jones to have a monster day on the ground, as evidenced by my Saturday article.
Unless you're the Pittsburgh Steelers, chances are your team is still uncertain about making the playoffs.
The Packers lost, yet the Saints won. The Seahawks won, but so did the Rams. The NFC is in a frenzy, while the Steelers sit atop the AFC waiting for everyone else to catch up. With only five weeks left, the playoff picture is a little fuzzy, but it clarifies with each game.
Likewise, fantasy playoffs are just on the horizon, and unless you're undefeated, there's a strong chance you're still clamoring for a spot.
If you need to make some moves for a playoff berth, here are some suggestions in this week's drops, swaps and shops.
Note: For ESPN Leagues, all public leagues must submit trades before the trade deadline onWednesday, November 25that 12 ET. Rules vary within leagues, but this could be your last week for swaps.
Drop
Baker Mayfield
© Scott Galvin-USA TODAY Sports
It may surprise you to realize that the Browns are 7-3, making them a top AFC team and second in their division only behind the Steelers. Yes, that means they even have a better record than the Ravens.
But those victories aren't the result of Mayfield's play: he's thrown for under 250 yards in ever game but one, and in that monster Week 7 anomaly, he threw for five touchdowns rather than his usual one or two.
It's Week 12 of the NFL season. The last time Baker Mayfield scored a touchdown, it was Week 7.— Paul Charchian (@Paul Charchian) 1606269552.0
Simply put, Mayfield is ranked 25th, so even in a 12-person, two-QB league, you can stand to do better than the Browns starter. Even if you're a Browns fan, it's not worth having him on your squad.
Swap
T.J. Hockenson
© Tim Fuller-USA TODAY Sports
It's always fun to root for players in the Thanksgiving game, so if you have a few extra trading chips and need a TE, Hockenson has been solid all season. Currently ranking fifth among tight ends, Hockenson has racked up 40 targets in the past six games and found the end zone five times over ten starts.
He's currently listed as questionable for Thanksgiving, but that could even lower his value this week if you want to score a last-minute trade. Consider Hockenson in a league that's honestly quite thin at standout tight ends that are still healthy.
T.J. Hockenson, rest of Detroit’s passing attack trying to find groove without Kenny Golladay https://t.co/oIjwxRnUBR— MLive (@MLive) 1606259709.0
Shop
Michael Pittman Jr.
© George Walker IV / Tennessean.com via Imagn Content Services, LLC
In back-to-back games, Michael Pittman has emerged as Phillip River's favorite target on a lackluster Colts passing offense. While T.Y. Hilton has fallen by the wayside, Pittman has emerged with ten receptions, 167 yards and a touchdown over the past two games. Pittman should be the top target on waivers this week as the Colts face division rival Tennessee Titans.
Former #USC wide receiver Michael Pittman Jr. having a really good season with the Colts. https://t.co/QG0X8AqYtE— Gerard Martinez (@Gerard Martinez) 1606267472.0
Carlos Hyde/Richard Rodgers
© Dale Zanine-USA TODAY Sports
Both Hyde and Rodgers are listed together here because picking and playing them depends on what happens to their injured starters. If Chris Carson and Zach Ertz return this Sunday, Hyde would be a solid starter, while Rodgers could be a flex option as he competes with Dallas Goedert.
The funny thing here is that the Eagles and Seahawks face off for Monday Night Football, making it a must-watch primetime game for fantasy owners.
RB Waiver Wire week 12 - Gus Edwards - Cam Akers - Frank Gore - Carlos Hyde (pending Carson) #FantasyFootball… https://t.co/JJFpsgS1O5— Fantasy Football Scout (@Fantasy Football Scout) 1606266453.0
Week 12 waiver wire pickups to consider, with availability: QB - Kirk Cousins (81%) RB - James White (64%) WR - Mic… https://t.co/wZjZZbQF9K— Zach Cohen (@Zach Cohen) 1606252991.0
Brandon McManus
© Isaiah J. Downing-USA TODAY Sports
Another player ranked fifth amongst his cohort, Brandon McManus is still available in half of ESPN leagues. Unless you're one of a lucky four who has better kicker, McManus is a better option. Denver kickers get a little advantage at home kicking in thinner air, but McManus is still a straight-shooter, missing only one field goal this season (and it was over 50 yards). Pick up McManus before anyone else notices for a solid kicker to propel you to the championship round.
Defense + Brandon McManus = win? #Broncos #BroncosCountry #MIAvsDEN #Defense— Ben_Bronte (@Ben_Bronte) 1606087600.0
Defense + Brandon McManus = win? #Broncos #BroncosCountry #MIAvsDEN #Defense— Ben_Bronte (@Ben_Bronte) 1606087600.0