Gerrit Cole is the undisputed ace for the New York Yankees, who’ll be looking to continue his run of dominance in 2021.
There's a consensus top trio this year, and unless you're drafting with a bunch of amateurs, they will all be off the board by the end of Round One.
For my money, you cannot go wrong with any of the three-headed-ace monster.
THE TOP THREE
Shane Bieber, 11Ks in 22 Seconds. https://t.co/f03Q67gGak— Rob Friedman (@Rob Friedman) 1565406007.0
Each of these pitchers posted sub-1.00 WHIPs, sub-3.00 ERAs, and over 8 quality starts. Bieber and deGrom vaulted over 100 Ks in the shortened season, and Cole nearly got there with 94. While other pitchers that will go later had similar numbers, these are the guys in the best position to repeat/exceed their performances.
If you are dead set on going for a starter early, or if one happens to fall to you in the back half of the first round, I wouldn't think twice about selecting these workhorses. (As someone who's relied on streaming pitchers after going offense-forward in past drafts, I think building a strong rotation from the jump provides peace of mind for the homestretch and playoff push).
THE REST OF THE TOP TEN
The drop off from the top to the next group is not as steep as many might imagine, especially as pitchers continue to use advanced analytics, such as spin rate, to perfect their games. With the added talk of a deadened baseball, which allows a better grip, I think it's safe to assume a lot of the following dudes will be well worth a pick at their projected draft slots. However, I want to issue a buyer beware for a couple.
The enigmatic Twitter presence had a career year of career years in 2020, earning him a much sought after Cy Young. He parlayed his success into a massive contract with the Los Angeles Dodgers, which pays him $38 million in 2021 and includes player opt outs after each season that could tack on $2 million, if exercised the first season, or $15 million for the second (maybe don't get too used to Bauer in Dodger Blue is all I'm saying).
Don't get me wrong, his only full season in Cincinnati was obviously spectacular. 100 Ks, 1.73 ERA, 0.79 WHIP, and 9 quality starts will get teams to smash their piggy banks. However, this is a guy, who has only two seasons of an under 4.00 ERA. The first was in 2018. How did he follow that up? A hefty 5.09 between his time in Cleveland and Cincy.
The change of scenery is worth mentioning here, as well. The NL Central looked like the dredges of baseball for most of last season. The Cubs were the one team to finish truly over .500, and they fell in the first round to the Miami Marlins, the Cards jumped in and out of quarantine so much that they didn't even play a full season, the Brewers went the way of Christian Yelich (who suffered with no video replay) and the Pirates were officially the league's worst team, posting a mere 19 wins.
Remember these are THE ONLY teams that Bauer pitched against last season, due to COVID rules. Facing even slightly stiffer competition from intra-divisional rivals, like the Padres, and across the league will undoubtedly have an effect and not a positive one. Throw in MLB's vendetta against sticky stuff, and I think it's very possible we see a much more average (by his own standards) season from Bauer.
Trust me, I'm not just picking on Dodgers pitchers here. Buehler possesses the raw skill and tools that most starters would kill for if given the chance. There are really only two red flags going into his fourth season.
First, the Dodgers historically have employed extreme caution about wearing out the young hurler's arm. They tend to ramp him up slowly, and he's never cracked 200 innings over a full regular season. (He and Giolito are the only two in the top ten not to sniff 190).
Now, he's coming off a shortened season in which a record number of pitchers experienced injuries, and he put up a total of only 60 innings. He only had one start go over six innings, which explains his one quality start. Usage alone might be reason enough to go in a different direction in the second round.
The other reason for concern is his paltry output this spring. Take this all with a grain of salt, but he's sporting an 8.10 ERA in his five exhibition starts, and a decreased velo on his fastball is to blame. Normally, he's sitting around 96, as opposed to the 93-94 that he's currently rocking. Do I believe that he'll build up and regain his form at some point? Absolutely.
But how long are you willing to wait for a top pick to find his juice? A month or two might be the difference between making or missing the playoffs.
Walker Buehler, 99mph Fastball Mechanics/Arm Action. https://t.co/ohe2o0KQ9O— Rob Friedman (@Rob Friedman) 1506029123.0
VALUE IN THE 11 TO 20 RANGE
These five guys will almost definitely fall into the fourth and fifth rounds, giving you an opportunity to bolster your rotation without breaking the bank. We run the gamut from established number ones to aging wunderkinds to a Cy Young-winner and World Series stand-out to a bevy of ascending aces.
These are pitchers that will offer a little more volatility than their higher-ranked brethren for a variety of reasons that range from age to injury to stuff not matching production:
After winning the Cy Young, Blake Snell dealt with "loose bodies" in his left shoulder that required surgery in 2019 and had some lingering soreness in 2020 that led to a decrease in innings and productivity. However, his effectiveness down the stretch this past season and into the playoffs is noteworthy, especially his sterling Game 6 start against the Dodgers coupled with his early hook that may have spelled the end of his time in Tampa.
His trade to the Padres represented the first of many dominoes to fall in San Diego's direction, and it appears as if it will pay big dividends for them. Snell had a clean bill of health coming into Spring Training, and the results reflect that with no earned runs to his name and a 0.75 WHIP over nine and a third innings pitched.
Sure, those stats are all meaningless until they aren't, but seeing Snell looking healthy and dangerous could mean a full-on return to form for the former top pitcher in the AL.
Blake Snell of the San Diego Padres. 🦖 https://t.co/tMXqEtMIlq— Rob Friedman (@Rob Friedman) 1614802490.0
Early in his career, Lance Lynn was a consistent third or fourth starter, who predominantly threw sinkerballs to induce soft contact and groundouts. It led to a success at the major league level that's impressive but hardly enviable. The glory in being a dependable guy that manufactures outs is almost always twinged as a little backhanded.
It came to a head when before the 2018 season; he was a free agent that had to wait until camp to get an offer. That's when two things changed that put him on an entirely different trajectory. First, he began to pitch from the 3rd base side of the rubber, which allowed him to drive harder through his lower body and generate more power behind his pitches. Second, he returned to a pitch that he abandoned as a member of the Cardinals organization: the four seamer.
These two tweaks have taken him from free agency afterthought to trade chip for a team with championship aspirations. Over his last two seasons in Texas, he has proven to be a different "D" word: Dominant. He's led the league in innings pitched, tied for first in starts with Aaron Nola, and tied for fifth in strikeouts with Max Scherzer. That's the kind of company Lynn deserves to mentioned in and drafted amongst. He'll be, dare I say, a pitcher to depend on.
Lance Lynn, Filthy 87mph Slider...and Sword. ⚔️ h/t @ChrisHalicke https://t.co/IWTFmDsYD0— Rob Friedman (@Rob Friedman) 1598744260.0
Mahomes and Brady display good sportsmanship after their Super Bowl preview game in the regular season.
The biggest game of the year is just a few short hours away, and that means you only have a few hours to get your last minute bets in for Super Bowl LV!
Championship Round Vibe Check (0-4)
For this game, it's going to be a Props-apalooza!! We will be running down props and picks to carry you from the first snap to the final play. Sure, making money is nice, but in this scenario, being invested the whole game is the goal. Let's begin!
First TD for the Bucs: Cameron Brate @ 10/1
Brate has been a sneakily fun target for Brady this season, especially since OJ Howard went down early in the year. The Harvard product has three TDs on the year, including one against the Packers, and has a catch every game going back to October. He's been scorching hot in the postseason, leading the team in red zone and end zone targets over that stretch. There are bigger, more reliable pass catchers on the team, but you absolutely gotta love these odds.
Mike Evans Will Score at least 1 TD +175
Speaking of better pass catchers, Mike Evans has been a dominant force for the Bucs, and Brady's most productive target this season. He had 13 TDs in the regular season, plus two in the last two playoff games. He presents a matchup nightmare anytime he steps on the field, and it stands to reason he'll get one.
Mike Evans’ stats today: 2 catches 2 yards 2 touchdowns https://t.co/gziYIIGGOP— Trevor Sikkema (@Trevor Sikkema) 1601243019.0
Travis Kelce and Mike Evans Both Score a TD +270
You've just heard my argument for Evans scoring during this game. Allow me to double down that same argument for Kelce. The man carried on the legacy of Tony Gonzalez, and become as hard to guard as any offensive player in the league. It certainly helps to have Tyreek Hill to take the top off and Patrick Mahomes who never lets a play die. Kelce comes in on a six game TD streak with two in his last games. Look for a score from the big man.
Tom Brady over .5 Rushing Yards +165
The patented Tom Brady Sneak™ is as potent as ever. Bruce Arians lives by the "No risk it, No biscuit" philosophy, so I have to believe as long as there's a 4th and 1 situation that the Bucs will pull this trick out. The biggest risk here is the off chance that Tampa wins and he kneels down the stretch, which could led to a bad backdoor beat.
Will There Be a Failed PAT? Yes +210
Harrison Butker has missed seven extra points this season, including one against the Browns in the divisional round. He was at 87.5% for the season, the lowest mark of his career. He even missed a 33 yard field goal in that Cleveland game, which is all the more astounding given his accuracy from further out. It was so bad he had to address the issue back in October. Ryan Succop, a great name Hall of Famer, has been similarly spotty on point after's this season. He's shanked five of his own, bringing his percentage to 91.2% on the year. My belief is there will be an abundance of scoring, giving ample chances to whiff for one of these guys. Given this is the biggest game of the year, I think it is fair to say there will be some frayed nerves and one miss between them.
Will Tyreek Hill Score A TD in the First Half? Yes +200
The last time that Tyreek Hill faced the Bucs D, he racked up 203 yards and two touchdowns... IN THE FIRST QUARTER. The Bucs did adjust well and held Tyreek in check for the rest of the game, but the explosive wide receiver can break for a touchdown anytime he touches the ball. The odds here are the main factor. Do I think Hill will score once in this game? Yes. Is it just as likely to happen in the second half? Maybe. But if I get a whole half to root for a score to happen that will almost definitely happen, sign me up.
Tyreek Hill is torching the Buccaneers with 203 yards and 2 TDs in the first quarter. https://t.co/KEbRin4m8o— USA TODAY NFL (@USA TODAY NFL) 1606687946.0
Will the Chiefs/Bucs Convert a Fourth Down? -140/-135
Andy Reid is famously aggressive. His belief in his offense's ability to convert fourth downs has become the stuff of legend (#HennethingIsPossible) and defenses curse his decision to keep them on the field one more play. This is absolutely a lock to happen, which is why I feel comfortable happily taking the minus odds to get some free money. Meanwhile, the Bucs, despite Arians' motto, notoriously wilt under the pressure of a fourth down. The Chiefs got for it on fourth down's under three yards to go half of the time, and the Bucs half that number down to 25%. The chances are the Bucs, possibly under the strain of the Chiefs relentless aerial attack, will be forced to take the plunge, at least, once. Maybe more if they hope to actually win.
Aaron Rodgers glides into the end zone after eluding the Rams D for a touchdown.
Last week we bet big on the Pack and Aaron Rodgers going off on the Rams D, and oh boy did it ever pay off.
Divisional Round Vibe Check (3-1)
Aaron Rodgers soared high above his over/under for yards, while easily slicing and dicing up the Los Angeles defenders. Aaron Donald was just below his usual, healthy, game-wrecking self, and it definitely makes you think this one would've been closer had he been 100%. It also has to make you wonder what's wrong with the Seattle Seahawks. How have they managed to waste Russell Wilson this badly? At least, they have their eyes on a bright future for him. Yikes.
The Bills came through in a big way against the Baltimore Ravens, but not how anyone had predicted. Defense was the name of the game when anyone with an All-22 subscription was calling for a shootout of epic proportions. Sure, I lost on a couple special overs that had this game getting into the sixties, but Josh Allen still brought me to the promised land of profits.
Meanwhile, the Tampa Bay Bucs joined the list of teams who managed to avoid a three game sweep on the season. After the game ended, and more information came out as to how injured Michael Thomas was all year, and Drew Brees was already looking towards his media career, it became clear they were never going to pull this one out. Heck, it's clear that one QB has a little more left in the tank even when the game isn't on the line.
Pretty cool moment with Tom Brady and Drew Brees and his family here https://t.co/EATa56aZOu— James Palmer (@James Palmer) 1610942434.0
Packers -4 over Buccaneers
Yes, I am a gluten for punishment. I've been betting against the Bucs all year to middling results, at best. I never believed or bought in on the hype around this team from the jump, and even as they've managed to match the noise around them, I've remained unmoved. Have they proven to be the second best team in the NFC? I guess. Do I think they would've made it this far had they played the Rams on Wild Card weekend? Nope.
Consider this, Taylor Heinicke in his second career start with a busted up Washington offense managed to hang in against the Bucs pass D. Now imagine it's Aaron Rodgers. The Packers have been rolling all season, behind an offensive renaissance, and I don't imagine them becoming less potent in the championship game. Yes, the Bucs handed Green Bay a beat down in their previous meeting. The only really impressive win on their schedule, as a matter of fact, but that game was in Tampa, the Packers weren't at 100%, and Aaron Rodgers didn't smell the Super Bowl just around the corner. This one might be high scoring, but I don't see it being particularly close.
Aaron Rodgers is feeling good ahead of his battle with the Bucs 🤣 @brgridiron (via @WISN_Watson) https://t.co/kTA2GQbWc1— Bleacher Report (@Bleacher Report) 1611176719.0
Packers vs. Buccaneers Over 59.5 (Alternate Total)
Betting the over worked so well last week that I'm doubling down in a big way. I'm taking an extra seven points here at +230 because the Pack and Bucs have been firing on all cylinders as of late. They're averaging 35.7 and 35 over their last three games, respectively. While their defenses have flashed at times, they represent big weaknesses for the NFC's two strongest teams. They can bring pressure and have above average front sevens, but Rodgers and Brady should be able to go back and forth picking apart these secondaries, especially with their array of weapons. The odds are too good to pass up for that number.
Josh Allen Over 2.5 Touchdowns
The story of this weekend is shaping up to be offense, and how. If the Bills hope to stand any chance against Mahomes and the Chiefs, they'll have to be scoring regularly. Most likely, Allen will end up giving one of these away by scrambling it in for a score instead of passing, but without much else of a run game to speak for, I believe he gets to three passing. The Chiefs have been giving up 1.8 passing TDs a game, and even if they manage to get pressure on him up the middle, Allen excels on broken plays outside of the pocket. Gotta like Stefon Diggs to get, at least, one of those looks.
Josh Allen and Stefon Diggs officially have the NFL's best bromance https://t.co/9QZXCwLDzp— Pick Six Podcast (@Pick Six Podcast) 1610860169.0
Bills over Packers in Super Bowl
This is a fun prop with some decent odds at +600. Sports books have deemed this the third most likely outcome two weeks from now and I have to agree. How do you talk yourself into this final? Well, the Packers should run through the Bucs, as I detailed above. That leaves it to the Bills topple the defending champs and slay the giant. It might not be that hard for them to survive in a barnburner against a hobbled Mahomes, which means we get a Green Bay and Buffalo matchup. If those two teams face off, I definitely prefer a Buffalo's D led by Sean McDermott, especially after they dismantled Lamar Jackson. Josh Allen comes into his own, outduels Rodgers to win a Super Bowl MVP, and Buffalo avenges four-losing efforts.
Josh Allen scampers for a gain against the Colts in the third quarter of the wild card game.
As the NFL postseason got underway last week, it became clear we need to make some halftime adjustments with our picks this week.
The Ravens were an easy cover for us, especially once Lamer found his groove and the grooves in Tennessee's D. Throw in a few head scratching punts by Mike Vrabel and that does the trick.
Meanwhile, Stefon Diggs came up two catches short for us with three targets left on the table. It was always going to be tough to get that many grabs, but it was worth a few bucks just to see what would happen.
Please, please, please remind me never to bet unders. I haven't hit one all year and yet the siren's song calls me to shore. I maintain this is the best one I bet all year. The pick 6 and DK Metcalf bomb in the second quarter killed after the best start imaginable. After 15 minutes, we had a combined score of 3, 15 minutes of game time later? 30. Bananas.
Then I don't really know what else to say about Pittsburgh losing to Baker Mayfield and co. that hasn't already been said. I just have to edit my list of completely impossible things to put, "Snowing in the Sahara desert," and "Taylor Swift ever getting back together with Jake Gyllenhaal" above "The Browns beating the Steelers in the playoffs."
Saints -3 over Buccaneers
I kind of love this line. It opened at 3.5 and already dropped half a point with plenty of action on Tampa Bay. With any luck it'll drop under 3 for a real steal of a deal. These two divisional foes have played twice already, and neither game was particularly close. Before you claim a clean three game sweep is too difficult, allow me to note it's happened 21 times, and the team going for their third victory is 14-7.
The first matchup was a tighter contest at 34-23 before the Saints went into Tampa, as 3 point underdogs, and put on a master class. Their defense was even more impressive than the offense that day, holding Arians and Brady to 3 points, as Brees engineered 38 points. Now things have obviously changed between then and now.
Drew Brees cracked nearly a dozen ribs and collapsed a lung, while Brady has really settled into an offense overflowing with weapons. It's worth noting that New Orleans' most impressive win was one of a handful of times when the ageless Brees, the elusive Alvin Kamara, and the dependable Michael Thomas were all on the field together. Now that the full arsenal is assembled and prepared to take advantage of the Bucs biggest weakness, their secondary, at home with a harassing defense, I have no choice, but to back them big.
https://t.co/kvv2dNTmHS https://t.co/ND8nmGmZG7— Tom Brady (@Tom Brady) 1610413475.0
Bills -2.5 over Ravens
The Bills defense allowed for the unlucky-in-4th-quarter-comebacks Phil Rivers to get close at the end and blow an easy seven point cover. The Ravens started slow last week, but managed to secure a cover and their own win by a touchdown. This feels to me like the best game of the weekend with the added storyline of two quarterbacks battling it out to be the 2018 NFL Draft's best. The Bills have statistically taken a huge leap into the second best offense in the league behind Allen and Brian Daboll's improvements, and have the added benefit of being the home team. Lamar will be able to keep this one close, but the offense around him lacks explosion. In a would-be shootout that's the difference maker.
Aaron Rodgers over 258.5 Pass Yards
The Packers offense has been a well-oiled machine. Of course, betting against the Rams defense has proven to be foolhardy, especially last week, but consider two of the Rams worst losses this season. The 49ers got the best of the league's best twice, and who should share the same core offensive concepts with those Niners, but the Green Bay Packers? The Niners won those games with one-legged Jimmy G and Nick Mullens, who put up 268 and 252 respectively. Do I think Aaron Rodgers can outdo both of them with the league's best Davante Adams at his disposal? Yes. Maybe, I should have done this in the form of a question.
Aaron Rodgers to guest host Jeopardy https://t.co/FVrEibGIdX— ProFootballTalk (@ProFootballTalk) 1610492836.0
Packers/Rams Over 47
Let's bet an over! The Rams let up 20 points, even if the last TD was in garbage time, and managed 30 points on their own behind Goff's busted thumb. The Packers have averaged 31 points, 33.7 over the last three, and finished with a 35 point drumming of the Bears, who put up 16. Green Bay have been hot enough to melt the snow off Lambeau, and even if Aaron Donald claims his ribs are feeling good, you have to imagine he won't be at full speed, which could rob the Rams of their biggest difference maker's first step. On the flip side, the Pack's D hasn't exactly been lights out. They give up on average 23 points a game, and give up a fair amount of yards on the ground that plays nicely into the Los Angeles game plan, especially given the recent surge of Cam Akers.
Just for fun, here's a clip of Aaron Donald tackling two guys on the same play in college.
Aaron Donald tackling two dudes at once at Pitt is iconic 🔥 @AaronDonald97 @RamsNFL (via @Pitt_ATHLETICS) https://t.co/Dj2kkynYAC— The Checkdown (@The Checkdown) 1598384352.0
Aaron Donald tackling two dudes at once at Pitt is iconic 🔥 @AaronDonald97 @RamsNFL (via @Pitt_ATHLETICS) https://t.co/Dj2kkynYAC— The Checkdown (@The Checkdown) 1598384352.0
