GLENDALE, AZ - FEBRUARY 01: Russell Wilson #3 of the Seattle Seahawks looks to pass in the first quarter against the New England Patriots during Super Bowl XLIX at University of Phoenix Stadium on February 1, 2015 in Glendale, Arizona.

(Photo by Kevin C. Cox/Getty Images)

We crushed our picks last week and nailed all five of the best bets recommended. We are now up +7 units over the last two weeks. Hopefully, you are following our advice, as we are 17-8 over the last five weeks.

The upsets continued in Week 10 after an incredibly wild Week 9. I would say this has been the craziest two-week period in the NFL this season. The Miami Dolphins kicked Week 10 off with a 22-10 victory over the Baltimore Ravens. Then on Sunday, the Lions managed to tie the Steelers, Washington defeated Tom Brady and the reigning Super Bowl champs, Carolina crushed the Arizona Cardinals, the Vikings defeated the Chargers, and Philadelphia beat Denver on the road. It was only fitting for the week to end with another huge upset, as the 49ers dismantled Matthew Stafford and the Los Angeles Rams in primetime on Monday Night Football.

Week 11 kicked off last night and the New England Patriots shut out Matt Ryan and the Atlanta Falcons. In our Public Betting Trends article, we advised bettors to take the Patriots against the spread and to take the under. If you did, you made some nice cash, especially if you wagered a parlay.

As the postseason picture begins to become more clear, it's time to gear up for this week's edition of NFL best bets. It takes a lot of energy and research to have success over the course of a season when it comes to sports betting. Here at Fantasy SP, we are committed to helping you cash. Remember, if you win 55% of your bets, you are a really good gambler. We are looking at some eye-opening odds this week and will help you decipher the best games to place your money on, whether it's moneylines, over-unders, or prop bets. With that, let's dive in.

Learn more about our fantasy football tools and products!

WEEK 11 NFL BEST BETS

Arizona Cardinals at Seattle Seahawks (+2)

Before the season started, this would have been an outrageous spread. Arizona has been much better than expected and Seattle had been much worse. However, Russell Wilson made his return last week against the Green Bay Packers and Seattle failed to score a single point. Somehow, I don't think that will happen again. Wilson clearly returned before he was at full strength, but with another week of practice, expect the Seahawks to come out much stronger at home with the 12th man supporting them from the stands. The Seahawks have one of the best home-field advantages in the NFL and Seattle has posted a 32-14-3 record against the spread since Wilson entered the league in 2012. Wilson himself wins 78.3% of the time following a loss, as he is 36-10 straight up after a loss.

Superstar wide receiver DeAndre Hopkins has officially been ruled out for Week 11 and quarterback Kyler Murray is still questionable. If Murray is unable to go, there is absolutely no way that Colt McCoy defeats Wilson on the road. And if Murray returns, he could be a bit hobbled or rusty after a two-week absence, plus he'll be missing his go-to target. I think the upsets will continue and the Seahawks will win this game outright. The public seems to think so too, as 87% of the moneyline handle is on the Seahawks.

I would also place a bet on the over in this game. Although only 44% of the bets placed are on the over, 99% of the money is expecting a high-scoring affair. This is a prime spot to follow the "smart money."

The Pick: Seahawks (+2)

Prediction: 24-20 Seahawks

Bonus Bet: Over 48.5 points

New Orleans Saints at Philadelphia Eagles (-2)

Over their last 10 games, the Saints are 9-1 against the spread as underdogs. Conversely, the Eagles are 3-7 against the spread as favorites over their last 10 games. The Saints are not the same team that they were a few years ago when Drew Brees was under center. They also still don't have Michael Thomas, and Alvin Kamara is highly questionable for this week's contest. However, the Saints were just a two-point conversion short of forcing overtime last week against the AFC-leading Tennessee Titans despite the absence of Kamara. The quarterback tandem of Trevor Siemian and Taysom Hill has actually played quite well since Jameis Winston went down with his season-ending injury. New Orleans brought back Mark Ingram, who proved he can still be relied on as a workhorse. Ingram posted 108 total yards on 18 touches and scored a touchdown. Even if Kamara is out, Ingram isn't a horrible downgrade. The Saints have one of the best offensive lines in the league so I'm not at all worried about the running game. And New Orleans' defense is elite with a great defensive line and one of the best shutdown cornerbacks in Marshon Lattimore.

The Eagles are coming into this contest hot after winning two of their last three matchups. Philadelphia steamrolled the winless Lions in Week 8, lost to the Los Angeles Chargers in Week 9, and defeated an underwhelming Denver Broncos squad in Week 10. Philly hasn't beaten a single legitimate playoff team this season. That's why it's tough to back them against a well-rounded Saints team. Sure, Jalen Hurts and Devonta Smith appear to have finally developed some chemistry, but Lattimore could make things difficult for the rookie wide receiver out of Alabama.

Although I think this game is competitive just as Vegas expects it to be, I think the Saints will win this game outright. However, I'm more comfortable taking the two-point spread.

The Pick: Saints (+2)

Prediction: 21-20 Saints

Miami Dolphins at New York Jets (+3.5)

Miami's defense has been elite over the last two weeks. After sacking Tyrod Taylor five times and forcing four turnovers against the Houston Texans in Week 9, the Dolphins were even better in primetime Thursday night against Lamar Jackson and the Baltimore Ravens. Miami allowed just 10 points, produced four sacks, forced two turnovers, and Xavien Howard returned a Sammy Watkins fumble for a 49-yard touchdown. Now the Dolphins get a New York Jets team that has struggled to put up points all season long whether Zach Wilson, Mike White, or Josh Johnson is under center. This week, the Jets will get their fourth quarterback under center this season, as veteran Joe Flacco will play his first snap of the season. It's hard to envision Flacco doing much damage against this improving Dolphins defense. According to TruMedia, the Dolphins have gotten pressure on a league-high 35 % of opponent dropbacks this season. The Jets have allowed pressure on 38 % of dropbacks this season, which ranks the fourth-worst in the league.

Although Miami has had offensive problems of its own, Tua Tagovailoa will start instead of Jacoby Brissett. The Dolphins will be without the services of DeVante Parker and Will Fuller, but Tua still has some solid weapons in rookie Jaylen Waddle, tight end Mike Gesicki, and running back Myles Gaskin. Three of New York's last four losses have been by 15+ points. And the Jets have allowed a ridiculous 472.5 yards and 43.8 points per game over their last four games. The Jets are also just 2-8 against the spread as underdogs over their last 10 games. I think this spread is way too low and I'm confident that the Dolphins will win by more than a field goal in Week 11.

The Pick: Dolphins (-3.5)

Prediction: 24-13 Dolphins

Use our Trade Analyzer to find out who gets the better end of any fantasy football deal!

San Francisco 49ers at Jacksonville Jaguars (+6.5)

The 49ers looked like a playoff team when they dismantled the Los Angeles Rams on Monday Night Football last week. San Francisco got back to their bread and butter by running the ball a whopping 44 times for 156 yards. After only picking off two passes heading into Week 10, Jimmie Ward and the Niners forced two turnovers and Ward returned one for a touchdown. George Kittle has hauled in 11-of-19 targets for 151 yards and two receiving touchdowns in two games since returning from injury. Deebo Samuel caught all five of his targets for 97 yards and one touchdown and rushed five times for 36 yards and a second touchdown in last week's game. And lastly, Jimmy Garroppolo threw two touchdown passes, didn't turn the ball over, and only tossed four incompletions. This was the most complete game the 49ers played all season and they looked very similar to the team that made the Super Bowl back in 2019.

Although the Jacksonville Jaguars upset the Buffalo Bills two weeks ago and came close to defeating the Indianapolis Colts last week, Trevor Lawrence has failed to live up to expectations thus far. Lawrence has only tossed eight touchdown passes and has thrown nine interceptions this season. Tight end Dan Arnold has really come into his own but Marvin Jones has struggled immensely over the last few weeks. Running back James Robinson is a bit hobbled and has not been the same player he was last year.

I don't expect this to be a blowout, but I will take the 49ers and lay the points in this one. I also suggest taking the over in this one. Although only 43% of bets are on the over, 98% of the money expects this game to go over the 45.5-point total.

The Pick: 49ers (-6.5)

Prediction: 27-20 49ers

Bonus: Over 45.5 points

Washington Football Team at Carolina Panthers (-3)

After upsetting the reigning Super Bowl champs last week, Ron Rivera leads Washington to face his former quarterback, Cam Newton, and the Carolina Panthers. The Panthers had been in a major drought after their 3-0 start to the season. However, the arrival of Newton has injected new life into this franchise. The Panthers are still in the thick of the playoff race after Newton helped lead Carolina to a massive upset over the NFC-leading Cardinals last week. Newton scored touchdowns on each of his first two plays in Week 10. This week, he will start at a loud Bank of America Stadium for the first time since Sept. 12, 2019. Newton didn't have the weapons in New England that he does in Carolina. Christian McCaffrey is the best dual-threat running back in the league, D.J. Moore has flashed top-10 upside at the wide receiver position, and even Robby Anderson has proven that he has some serious skills (though he was much better in New York than he has been in Carolina). I don't think the Panthers are going to score 34 points again, but they won't have to and they could come close against a Washington defense that ranks dead-last in the NFL and just lost their best player in Chase Young for the season. Plus, Carolina's No. 2 ranked defense will be fired up against Taylor Heinicke.

The Pick: Panthers (-3)

Prediction: 26-19 Panthers

Fantasy SP is developing betting tools to provide users with something nobody else in the industry can offer. Upgrade to an Edge+ account today and get 50% off your first year at just $99.99 for the year. After a year, the price is going to increase to $199. Lock in your special early-bird deal today!

Stephen Curry, Golden State Warriors

Tom Pennington, Getty Images

In Game 3 of the Eastern Conference Finals, Bam Adebayo's 31-point and 10-rebound double-double led the Miami Heat to a 109-103 victory over the Celtics on the road. That was followed by a dominant second-half performance by Stephen Curry and Andrew Wiggins who led the Warriors to a 3-0 lead in the Western Conference Finals.

Tonight, we'll get the first of these two matchups. Boston will look to come back in their second home game against a Heat team that is clearly not at 100% healthy. Tyler Herro has been ruled out for Game 4 while Kyle Lowry remains questionable. Here are some of the best bets for tonight's and tomorrow's big Game 4s.

Please note that all odds and lines are from FanDuel Sportsbook and were accurate at 3:30 PM EST. Be sure to check for line movement or odd changes.

ECF Game 4: Miami Heat at Boston Celtics -7 (MIA Leads 2-1)

In Game 4, the Celtics rallied back from double-digits to make things interesting in the fourth quarter. However, Boston conceded Game 3 to the Miami Heat 109-103. On Sunday, Bam Adebayo was getting everything he wanted down low. He finished with 31 points, 10 boards, six assists, four steals, and one block. Ime Udoka will need to boost the presence of his big men down low, perhaps by extending Daniel Theis’ minutes or having him share the floor more with Al Horford. The major reason for which the Heat are considered the seven-point underdogs for tonight’s game is injuries. Tyler Herro has already been ruled out for Game 4, and the Heat have four or five other players in their lineup currently listed as questionable. This includes Max Struss, Kyle Lowry, Jimmy Butler, and P.J. Tucker. Butler is dealing with knee inflammation which sidelined him for the second half of Game 3.

Even if all of the players in the Heat’s rotation are good to go tonight (outside of Herro), Boston has not lost back-to-back home games since late October. Plus, Jaylen Brown is shooting much better than he did earlier in the postseason. In fact, he’s elevated his shooting to 50% from the field through the 2021-22 playoffs through 14 games played. Expect Boston to bounce back big in Game 4, with multiple players on the Miami Heat not at full strength.

The Pick: Boston Celtics -7 (-110)

WCF Game 4: Golden State Warriors at Dallas Mavericks -1 (GSW Leads 3-0)

Well, it’s looking like the Golden State Warriors are returning to the NBA Finals. With the emergence of Jordan Poole late this season and into the postseason, Andrew Wiggins’ First-Team All-Star season, and Klay Thompson’s return to basketball, Golden State has been simply phenomenal. Golden State is simply that good this year, with anyone on the team capable of stepping up. Stephen Curry erupted in Game 3, while it was Andrew Wiggins that caught fire in the second half of Game 4. Any given night, the Warriors have one or two guys who they can count on for scoring approximately 25+ points. Considering the Mavericks' struggles this round, particularly behind the three-point line, bettors should go with the Warriors as the slight underdog. Teams get swept sometimes. Just ask the Brooklyn Nets. The Warriors will bring out the brooms and sweep the Mavericks as they punch their ticket to the NBA Finals Tuesday night.

The Pick: Golden State Warriors ML -104

NBA Player Props

Golden State Warriors at Dallas Mavericks -1 (GSW Leads 3-0)

Prop #1: Stephen Curry, Over 27.5 Points

Stephen Curry has scored 31 points and 32 points over the last two games. He’s done so by converting at least 50% from the field in each contest. It makes sense that he would score at least 28 points in a series-clinching victory tomorrow night. Curry is averaging 27.1 PPG on 45.9% this postseason but has certainly put up more points and done so more efficiently over the last few games.

Prop #2: Luka Doncic, Over 3.5 Threes

Luka has drained nine three-pointers over the last two games. He’s knocked down at least four threes in three of his last four contests. Facing elimination and hoping to not let down the home crowd in back-to-back home playoff games, Doncic will convert at least four baskets from downtown in Game 4.

Tyler Herro (Left), Bam Adebayo (Right), Miami Heat

Getty Images

Jimmy Butler, Tyler Herro, Bam Adebayo, and the Miami Heat held their own against the Celtics in Game 1 of the Eastern Conference Finals. Likewise, Andrew Wiggins and Stephen Curry led the Warriors to a 112-87 blowout over Luka Doncic and the Dallas Mavericks. Tonight, the Celtics play their second game on the road against the Heat. On Friday night, the Mavericks will look to bounce back after shooting horrifically in Game 1.

Let’s take a look at the best bets for the two NBA Conference Final Game 2 matchups set for 8:30 PM EST. tonight and 9:00 PM EST. tomorrow night.

Please note that all odds and lines are from FanDuel Sportsbook and were accurate at 4:30 PM EST. Be sure to check for line movement or odd changes.

Best Bets of the Night

Game: Boston Celtics at Miami Heat -2 (MIA Leads 1-0)

After a nail-biting series with the Milwaukee Bucks that the Celtics won in grandiose fashion, Boston conceded Game 1 of the Eastern Conference Finals to the Miami Heat. Tonight, they play Game 2 of the series at the FTX Arena and hope to bounce back from Tuesday’s 11-point loss. One of the principal reasons for their defeat in Game 1 was the absence of Marcus Smart (foot sprain) and Al Horford (health & safety protocols). It remained a relatively close game until the third quarter in which the Celtics were outscored 14-3 to begin the second half. Derrick White filled in for Marcus Smart and was terribly inefficient from the field. He scored three points (1-4 FG) and had four assists in 29 minutes filling in for the Defensive Player of the Year. In contrast, Max Struss and Gabe Vincent did a terrific job of filling in for Kyle Lowry, combining for 28 points on 9-of-19 shooting. In addition, Tyler Herro had a good night with a pivotal 18 points (7-15 FG) off the bench. Fortunately for the Celtics, both Smart and Horford are expected to return tonight.

Head Coach Ime Udoka indicated to reporters today that Smart was probable to play this evening. Horford was cleared of health and safety protocols today making him available for tonight’s contest. For those of you who have watched the Celtics this postseason, Horford and Smart have upped their play and have been absolutely integral to the team’s success. Tonight, let’s take the Boston Celtics to take a game on the road in the same fashion that they took two road games from the Bucks in the last series.

The Pick: Boston Celtics ML +108

Tonight's Best NBA Player Props

Game: Boston Celtics at Miami Heat -2 (MIA Leads 1-0)

Prop#1: Gabe Vincent Over 9.5 Points
In Game 1 without Kyle Lowry, Gabe Vincent scored 17 points in 34 minutes on 50% shooting from the field. As Kyle Lowry is out again for Game 2 tonight, expect Vincent to score at least 10 points. Vincent has performed admirably while filling in for the veteran. Even when Lowry returns, it's quite possible that Erik Spoelstra will give some of Lowry's minutes to Vincent.
Prop#2: Al Horford Over 9.5 Points
After five straight double-digit scoring performances, Al Horford scored eight points or fewer in the last three games of the Eastern Conference Semifinals against the Bucks. He missed Game 1 of the Celtics' series against the Miami Heat after entering Health & Safety protocols. Since he was only out for one game, he shouldn't face any minute restrictions tonight. Horford should score at least 10 points in 30+ minutes on the floor.

Tomorrow Night's Best NBA Bet

Game: Dallas Mavericks at Golden State -6 (GSW Leads 1-0)

Dallas was annihilated by Golden State in Game 1 of the Western Conference Finals. This comes after the Mavs blew out the Phoenix Suns on the road in impressive fashion, punching their ticket to the next round of the playoffs for a series against the Warriors. Golden State shot an impressive 56.1% from the field in the opening game and finished with 112 points. Just as important as the offensive production, Golden State clamped down on defense. The Warriors contained Luka Doncic, who converted just six of his 18 field goals on his way to 20 points. Andrew Wiggins did an excellent job guarding the young playmaker. Luka's teammates didn't help out much either as the Mavericks shot 36% from the field in Game 1, and 22.9% from downtown (11-48 3PT FG) for just 87 points on the night.

While I think the Warriors will win again on Friday night, expect the Mavericks to keep things more interesting after such an abysmal night shooting from the field. Dallas will make the adjustments needed to make this a competitive Game 2 in the Bay area.

The Pick: Dallas Mavericks +6 (-110)

Fantasy SP has worked diligently to bring you next-level sports betting analytics, prop betting tools, public betting splits, and so much more! Become an Edge+ member today before the price doubles!

Klay Thompson, Golden State Warriors

Ezra Shaw/Getty Images

Klay Thompson is coming off one of his signature Game 6 performances. Thompson dropped his second-highest point total of the postseason, punching Golden State's ticket to the Western Conference Finals after defeating the Memphis Grizzlies in six games. In the elimination game, Thompson led the team with 30 points (11-22 from the field and 8-14 from beyond the arc), eight boards, two assists, and three blocks. Considering the multitude of injuries he has fought back from and the adversity he has faced, it's quite amazing that the five-time All-Star has converted at least 50% of his three-point shots in three of his last four outings. He seems to be in great form entering this pivotal series with the Mavericks.

Dallas stunned the top-seeded Phoenix Suns and reigning Western Conference champs on the road in Game 7, 123-90, and earned a trip to the Western Conference Finals. Let's see if Thompson can remain scorching hot as Stephen Curry and the Dubs host Luka Doncic and the Dallas Mavericks in Game 1 of the Western Conference Finals tonight. Now, let's take a look at some of the best bets and player props to consider for tonight’s big matchup!

Please note that all odds and lines are from FanDuel Sportsbook and were accurate at 3:30 PM EST. Be sure to check for line movement or odd changes.

Best Bets of the Night

Bet #1: Golden State Warriors -5 (-110)

Following a tough loss in Game 5 to the Grizzlies despite Ja Morant’s absence from the lineup, the Warriors bounced back and closed the series at home in Game 6. They take on the Dallas Mavericks, who’ve been absolutely unbelievable on defense. Changes made to the Mavs’ rotation by Jason Kidd worked flawlessly against Chris Paul, Devin Booker, and the Suns in the previous round. One surprise for Dallas this postseason has been former New York Knicks lottery pick, Frank Ntilikina. He's a player who has stepped up immensely this postseason, especially on defense. Throughout the series, Ntilikina held Chris Paul and Devin Booker to a combined 3-of-40 shooting from the field when he guarded them.

It will be interesting to see if Jason Kidd keeps his minutes up, or perhaps increases them after what was truly an astonishing defensive performance against the Suns. Unfortunately for the Mavericks, the Golden State Warriors have four efficient scorers who will need to be contained. The Warriors will cover the spread tonight and win by more than five points on their home floor.

Bet #2: Over 214.5 Total Points (-110)

Dallas scored an impressive 123 points in Game 7, and they did so on the road. I expect them to reach at least 110 points in Game 1 of the Western Conference Finals. The Warriors shot on and off throughout their series against the Memphis Grizzlies. Nonetheless, they averaged 111 PPG in their series against Memphis (666 total points scored by the Warriors over six games). Both teams play a style of basketball that stresses ball movement to find an open man beyond the arc. When Dallas or Golden State shoot 40%-45% from the field, they can score in the hundreds because of the high volume of shots they take. Dallas started taking more shots and playing at a faster pace in the second half of their series against Phoenix. By the half in Game 7, Dallas was up 57-27. In the game, the Mavericks went 19-of-39 from downtown (48.9%). Even more impressive was Dallas’ 56.8% shooting from the field. Although the Warriors are one of the best defensive teams in the league, a 214.5-point Over / Under for tonight’s game is quite low. Smash the Over.

Learn more about our fantasy basketball tools and premium products!

NBA Player Props of the Night

Prop #1: Jordan Poole Over 1.5 Threes (-174)

Jordan Poole has finally cooled down after a stretch of three 20-point games against the Grizzlies. Over the last three contests, Poole has only hit two or more three-pointers in one contest. Over those last three games, he shot a combined 3-of-17 from downtown. While Poole has been highly inefficient over the last few games, he’ll hit at least two three-pointers in Game 1 tonight. The odds of this prop reflect how likely it is to happen. Although Poole isn't seeing as high a usage rate as when Curry and Thompson were injured during the regular season, Poole should still see plenty of open looks in the 25+ minutes he should log tonight. Given that Dallas will most likely try to stop Curry and Thompson from beating them, Poole should see a few wide-open looks. He will knock down at least two from deep range tonight.

Prop #2: Klay Thompson Over 20.5 Points (-112)

Klay Thompson has averaged just about 20.5 points since he came back this regular season. Throughout the postseason, he’s played strong and for the most part, been efficient from the field. Through 11 games in this postseason, Thompson is averaging 20.4 PPG on 45% shooting from the field. I like him to hit the over here in his first Western Conference Final matchup in three years. After getting his swagger back and dropping 30 points to eliminate the Grizzlies last round, Thompson should have all. the confidence in the world heading into Game 1 in the bay.

Fantasy SP has worked diligently to bring you next-level sports betting analytics, prop betting tools, public betting splits, and so much more! Become an Edge+ member today before the price doubles!

Terms & Conditions: 21+ and present in CO, IA, IL, IN, MI, NJ, PA, TN, VA or WV. New users only. Must wager in designated offer market. $10 first deposit required. $150 max bonus. See full terms at sportsbook.fanduel.com. Gambling Problem? Call: 1-800-522-4700 (CO), 1-800-BETS-OFF (IA), 1-800-9-WITH-IT (IN), 1-800-270-7117 for confidential help (MI), 1-800-GAMBLER (NJ, PA, IL, VA), TN REDLINE 1-800-889-9789 (TN), or visit www.1800gambler.net (WV).