NFL Best Bets: Week 11 Picks, Predictions & Odds To Consider
We crushed our picks last week and nailed all five of the best bets recommended. We are now up +7 units over the last two weeks. Hopefully, you are following our advice, as we are 17-8 over the last five weeks.
The upsets continued in Week 10 after an incredibly wild Week 9. I would say this has been the craziest two-week period in the NFL this season. The Miami Dolphins kicked Week 10 off with a 22-10 victory over the Baltimore Ravens. Then on Sunday, the Lions managed to tie the Steelers, Washington defeated Tom Brady and the reigning Super Bowl champs, Carolina crushed the Arizona Cardinals, the Vikings defeated the Chargers, and Philadelphia beat Denver on the road. It was only fitting for the week to end with another huge upset, as the 49ers dismantled Matthew Stafford and the Los Angeles Rams in primetime on Monday Night Football.
Week 11 kicked off last night and the New England Patriots shut out Matt Ryan and the Atlanta Falcons. In our Public Betting Trends article, we advised bettors to take the Patriots against the spread and to take the under. If you did, you made some nice cash, especially if you wagered a parlay.
As the postseason picture begins to become more clear, it's time to gear up for this week's edition of NFL best bets. It takes a lot of energy and research to have success over the course of a season when it comes to sports betting. Here at Fantasy SP, we are committed to helping you cash. Remember, if you win 55% of your bets, you are a really good gambler. We are looking at some eye-opening odds this week and will help you decipher the best games to place your money on, whether it's moneylines, over-unders, or prop bets. With that, let's dive in.
WEEK 11 NFL BEST BETS
Before the season started, this would have been an outrageous spread. Arizona has been much better than expected and Seattle had been much worse. However, Russell Wilson made his return last week against the Green Bay Packers and Seattle failed to score a single point. Somehow, I don't think that will happen again. Wilson clearly returned before he was at full strength, but with another week of practice, expect the Seahawks to come out much stronger at home with the 12th man supporting them from the stands. The Seahawks have one of the best home-field advantages in the NFL and Seattle has posted a 32-14-3 record against the spread since Wilson entered the league in 2012. Wilson himself wins 78.3% of the time following a loss, as he is 36-10 straight up after a loss.
Superstar wide receiver DeAndre Hopkins has officially been ruled out for Week 11 and quarterback Kyler Murray is still questionable. If Murray is unable to go, there is absolutely no way that Colt McCoy defeats Wilson on the road. And if Murray returns, he could be a bit hobbled or rusty after a two-week absence, plus he'll be missing his go-to target. I think the upsets will continue and the Seahawks will win this game outright. The public seems to think so too, as 87% of the moneyline handle is on the Seahawks.
I would also place a bet on the over in this game. Although only 44% of the bets placed are on the over, 99% of the money is expecting a high-scoring affair. This is a prime spot to follow the "smart money."
The Pick: Seahawks (+2)
Prediction: 24-20 Seahawks
Bonus Bet: Over 48.5 points
Over their last 10 games, the Saints are 9-1 against the spread as underdogs. Conversely, the Eagles are 3-7 against the spread as favorites over their last 10 games. The Saints are not the same team that they were a few years ago when Drew Brees was under center. They also still don't have Michael Thomas, and Alvin Kamara is highly questionable for this week's contest. However, the Saints were just a two-point conversion short of forcing overtime last week against the AFC-leading Tennessee Titans despite the absence of Kamara. The quarterback tandem of Trevor Siemian and Taysom Hill has actually played quite well since Jameis Winston went down with his season-ending injury. New Orleans brought back Mark Ingram, who proved he can still be relied on as a workhorse. Ingram posted 108 total yards on 18 touches and scored a touchdown. Even if Kamara is out, Ingram isn't a horrible downgrade. The Saints have one of the best offensive lines in the league so I'm not at all worried about the running game. And New Orleans' defense is elite with a great defensive line and one of the best shutdown cornerbacks in Marshon Lattimore.
The Eagles are coming into this contest hot after winning two of their last three matchups. Philadelphia steamrolled the winless Lions in Week 8, lost to the Los Angeles Chargers in Week 9, and defeated an underwhelming Denver Broncos squad in Week 10. Philly hasn't beaten a single legitimate playoff team this season. That's why it's tough to back them against a well-rounded Saints team. Sure, Jalen Hurts and Devonta Smith appear to have finally developed some chemistry, but Lattimore could make things difficult for the rookie wide receiver out of Alabama.
Although I think this game is competitive just as Vegas expects it to be, I think the Saints will win this game outright. However, I'm more comfortable taking the two-point spread.
The Pick: Saints (+2)
Prediction: 21-20 Saints
Miami's defense has been elite over the last two weeks. After sacking Tyrod Taylor five times and forcing four turnovers against the Houston Texans in Week 9, the Dolphins were even better in primetime Thursday night against Lamar Jackson and the Baltimore Ravens. Miami allowed just 10 points, produced four sacks, forced two turnovers, and Xavien Howard returned a Sammy Watkins fumble for a 49-yard touchdown. Now the Dolphins get a New York Jets team that has struggled to put up points all season long whether Zach Wilson, Mike White, or Josh Johnson is under center. This week, the Jets will get their fourth quarterback under center this season, as veteran Joe Flacco will play his first snap of the season. It's hard to envision Flacco doing much damage against this improving Dolphins defense. According to TruMedia, the Dolphins have gotten pressure on a league-high 35 % of opponent dropbacks this season. The Jets have allowed pressure on 38 % of dropbacks this season, which ranks the fourth-worst in the league.
Although Miami has had offensive problems of its own, Tua Tagovailoa will start instead of Jacoby Brissett. The Dolphins will be without the services of DeVante Parker and Will Fuller, but Tua still has some solid weapons in rookie Jaylen Waddle, tight end Mike Gesicki, and running back Myles Gaskin. Three of New York's last four losses have been by 15+ points. And the Jets have allowed a ridiculous 472.5 yards and 43.8 points per game over their last four games. The Jets are also just 2-8 against the spread as underdogs over their last 10 games. I think this spread is way too low and I'm confident that the Dolphins will win by more than a field goal in Week 11.
The Pick: Dolphins (-3.5)
Prediction: 24-13 Dolphins
The 49ers looked like a playoff team when they dismantled the Los Angeles Rams on Monday Night Football last week. San Francisco got back to their bread and butter by running the ball a whopping 44 times for 156 yards. After only picking off two passes heading into Week 10, Jimmie Ward and the Niners forced two turnovers and Ward returned one for a touchdown. George Kittle has hauled in 11-of-19 targets for 151 yards and two receiving touchdowns in two games since returning from injury. Deebo Samuel caught all five of his targets for 97 yards and one touchdown and rushed five times for 36 yards and a second touchdown in last week's game. And lastly, Jimmy Garroppolo threw two touchdown passes, didn't turn the ball over, and only tossed four incompletions. This was the most complete game the 49ers played all season and they looked very similar to the team that made the Super Bowl back in 2019.
Although the Jacksonville Jaguars upset the Buffalo Bills two weeks ago and came close to defeating the Indianapolis Colts last week, Trevor Lawrence has failed to live up to expectations thus far. Lawrence has only tossed eight touchdown passes and has thrown nine interceptions this season. Tight end Dan Arnold has really come into his own but Marvin Jones has struggled immensely over the last few weeks. Running back James Robinson is a bit hobbled and has not been the same player he was last year.
I don't expect this to be a blowout, but I will take the 49ers and lay the points in this one. I also suggest taking the over in this one. Although only 43% of bets are on the over, 98% of the money expects this game to go over the 45.5-point total.
The Pick: 49ers (-6.5)
Prediction: 27-20 49ers
Bonus: Over 45.5 points
After upsetting the reigning Super Bowl champs last week, Ron Rivera leads Washington to face his former quarterback, Cam Newton, and the Carolina Panthers. The Panthers had been in a major drought after their 3-0 start to the season. However, the arrival of Newton has injected new life into this franchise. The Panthers are still in the thick of the playoff race after Newton helped lead Carolina to a massive upset over the NFC-leading Cardinals last week. Newton scored touchdowns on each of his first two plays in Week 10. This week, he will start at a loud Bank of America Stadium for the first time since Sept. 12, 2019. Newton didn't have the weapons in New England that he does in Carolina. Christian McCaffrey is the best dual-threat running back in the league, D.J. Moore has flashed top-10 upside at the wide receiver position, and even Robby Anderson has proven that he has some serious skills (though he was much better in New York than he has been in Carolina). I don't think the Panthers are going to score 34 points again, but they won't have to and they could come close against a Washington defense that ranks dead-last in the NFL and just lost their best player in Chase Young for the season. Plus, Carolina's No. 2 ranked defense will be fired up against Taylor Heinicke.
The Pick: Panthers (-3)
Prediction: 26-19 Panthers
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