NFL Best Bets: Week 11 Picks, Predictions & Odds To Consider
We crushed our picks last week and nailed all five of the best bets recommended. We are now up +7 units over the last two weeks. Hopefully, you are following our advice, as we are 17-8 over the last five weeks.
The upsets continued in Week 10 after an incredibly wild Week 9. I would say this has been the craziest two-week period in the NFL this season. The Miami Dolphins kicked Week 10 off with a 22-10 victory over the Baltimore Ravens. Then on Sunday, the Lions managed to tie the Steelers, Washington defeated Tom Brady and the reigning Super Bowl champs, Carolina crushed the Arizona Cardinals, the Vikings defeated the Chargers, and Philadelphia beat Denver on the road. It was only fitting for the week to end with another huge upset, as the 49ers dismantled Matthew Stafford and the Los Angeles Rams in primetime on Monday Night Football.
Week 11 kicked off last night and the New England Patriots shut out Matt Ryan and the Atlanta Falcons. In our Public Betting Trends article, we advised bettors to take the Patriots against the spread and to take the under. If you did, you made some nice cash, especially if you wagered a parlay.
As the postseason picture begins to become more clear, it's time to gear up for this week's edition of NFL best bets. It takes a lot of energy and research to have success over the course of a season when it comes to sports betting. Here at Fantasy SP, we are committed to helping you cash. Remember, if you win 55% of your bets, you are a really good gambler. We are looking at some eye-opening odds this week and will help you decipher the best games to place your money on, whether it's moneylines, over-unders, or prop bets. With that, let's dive in.
WEEK 11 NFL BEST BETS
Before the season started, this would have been an outrageous spread. Arizona has been much better than expected and Seattle had been much worse. However, Russell Wilson made his return last week against the Green Bay Packers and Seattle failed to score a single point. Somehow, I don't think that will happen again. Wilson clearly returned before he was at full strength, but with another week of practice, expect the Seahawks to come out much stronger at home with the 12th man supporting them from the stands. The Seahawks have one of the best home-field advantages in the NFL and Seattle has posted a 32-14-3 record against the spread since Wilson entered the league in 2012. Wilson himself wins 78.3% of the time following a loss, as he is 36-10 straight up after a loss.
Superstar wide receiver DeAndre Hopkins has officially been ruled out for Week 11 and quarterback Kyler Murray is still questionable. If Murray is unable to go, there is absolutely no way that Colt McCoy defeats Wilson on the road. And if Murray returns, he could be a bit hobbled or rusty after a two-week absence, plus he'll be missing his go-to target. I think the upsets will continue and the Seahawks will win this game outright. The public seems to think so too, as 87% of the moneyline handle is on the Seahawks.
I would also place a bet on the over in this game. Although only 44% of the bets placed are on the over, 99% of the money is expecting a high-scoring affair. This is a prime spot to follow the "smart money."
The Pick: Seahawks (+2)
Prediction: 24-20 Seahawks
Bonus Bet: Over 48.5 points
Over their last 10 games, the Saints are 9-1 against the spread as underdogs. Conversely, the Eagles are 3-7 against the spread as favorites over their last 10 games. The Saints are not the same team that they were a few years ago when Drew Brees was under center. They also still don't have Michael Thomas, and Alvin Kamara is highly questionable for this week's contest. However, the Saints were just a two-point conversion short of forcing overtime last week against the AFC-leading Tennessee Titans despite the absence of Kamara. The quarterback tandem of Trevor Siemian and Taysom Hill has actually played quite well since Jameis Winston went down with his season-ending injury. New Orleans brought back Mark Ingram, who proved he can still be relied on as a workhorse. Ingram posted 108 total yards on 18 touches and scored a touchdown. Even if Kamara is out, Ingram isn't a horrible downgrade. The Saints have one of the best offensive lines in the league so I'm not at all worried about the running game. And New Orleans' defense is elite with a great defensive line and one of the best shutdown cornerbacks in Marshon Lattimore.
The Eagles are coming into this contest hot after winning two of their last three matchups. Philadelphia steamrolled the winless Lions in Week 8, lost to the Los Angeles Chargers in Week 9, and defeated an underwhelming Denver Broncos squad in Week 10. Philly hasn't beaten a single legitimate playoff team this season. That's why it's tough to back them against a well-rounded Saints team. Sure, Jalen Hurts and Devonta Smith appear to have finally developed some chemistry, but Lattimore could make things difficult for the rookie wide receiver out of Alabama.
Although I think this game is competitive just as Vegas expects it to be, I think the Saints will win this game outright. However, I'm more comfortable taking the two-point spread.
The Pick: Saints (+2)
Prediction: 21-20 Saints
Miami's defense has been elite over the last two weeks. After sacking Tyrod Taylor five times and forcing four turnovers against the Houston Texans in Week 9, the Dolphins were even better in primetime Thursday night against Lamar Jackson and the Baltimore Ravens. Miami allowed just 10 points, produced four sacks, forced two turnovers, and Xavien Howard returned a Sammy Watkins fumble for a 49-yard touchdown. Now the Dolphins get a New York Jets team that has struggled to put up points all season long whether Zach Wilson, Mike White, or Josh Johnson is under center. This week, the Jets will get their fourth quarterback under center this season, as veteran Joe Flacco will play his first snap of the season. It's hard to envision Flacco doing much damage against this improving Dolphins defense. According to TruMedia, the Dolphins have gotten pressure on a league-high 35 % of opponent dropbacks this season. The Jets have allowed pressure on 38 % of dropbacks this season, which ranks the fourth-worst in the league.
Although Miami has had offensive problems of its own, Tua Tagovailoa will start instead of Jacoby Brissett. The Dolphins will be without the services of DeVante Parker and Will Fuller, but Tua still has some solid weapons in rookie Jaylen Waddle, tight end Mike Gesicki, and running back Myles Gaskin. Three of New York's last four losses have been by 15+ points. And the Jets have allowed a ridiculous 472.5 yards and 43.8 points per game over their last four games. The Jets are also just 2-8 against the spread as underdogs over their last 10 games. I think this spread is way too low and I'm confident that the Dolphins will win by more than a field goal in Week 11.
The Pick: Dolphins (-3.5)
Prediction: 24-13 Dolphins
The 49ers looked like a playoff team when they dismantled the Los Angeles Rams on Monday Night Football last week. San Francisco got back to their bread and butter by running the ball a whopping 44 times for 156 yards. After only picking off two passes heading into Week 10, Jimmie Ward and the Niners forced two turnovers and Ward returned one for a touchdown. George Kittle has hauled in 11-of-19 targets for 151 yards and two receiving touchdowns in two games since returning from injury. Deebo Samuel caught all five of his targets for 97 yards and one touchdown and rushed five times for 36 yards and a second touchdown in last week's game. And lastly, Jimmy Garroppolo threw two touchdown passes, didn't turn the ball over, and only tossed four incompletions. This was the most complete game the 49ers played all season and they looked very similar to the team that made the Super Bowl back in 2019.
Although the Jacksonville Jaguars upset the Buffalo Bills two weeks ago and came close to defeating the Indianapolis Colts last week, Trevor Lawrence has failed to live up to expectations thus far. Lawrence has only tossed eight touchdown passes and has thrown nine interceptions this season. Tight end Dan Arnold has really come into his own but Marvin Jones has struggled immensely over the last few weeks. Running back James Robinson is a bit hobbled and has not been the same player he was last year.
I don't expect this to be a blowout, but I will take the 49ers and lay the points in this one. I also suggest taking the over in this one. Although only 43% of bets are on the over, 98% of the money expects this game to go over the 45.5-point total.
The Pick: 49ers (-6.5)
Prediction: 27-20 49ers
Bonus: Over 45.5 points
After upsetting the reigning Super Bowl champs last week, Ron Rivera leads Washington to face his former quarterback, Cam Newton, and the Carolina Panthers. The Panthers had been in a major drought after their 3-0 start to the season. However, the arrival of Newton has injected new life into this franchise. The Panthers are still in the thick of the playoff race after Newton helped lead Carolina to a massive upset over the NFC-leading Cardinals last week. Newton scored touchdowns on each of his first two plays in Week 10. This week, he will start at a loud Bank of America Stadium for the first time since Sept. 12, 2019. Newton didn't have the weapons in New England that he does in Carolina. Christian McCaffrey is the best dual-threat running back in the league, D.J. Moore has flashed top-10 upside at the wide receiver position, and even Robby Anderson has proven that he has some serious skills (though he was much better in New York than he has been in Carolina). I don't think the Panthers are going to score 34 points again, but they won't have to and they could come close against a Washington defense that ranks dead-last in the NFL and just lost their best player in Chase Young for the season. Plus, Carolina's No. 2 ranked defense will be fired up against Taylor Heinicke.
The Pick: Panthers (-3)
Prediction: 26-19 Panthers
Fantasy SP is developing betting tools to provide users with something nobody else in the industry can offer. Upgrade to an Edge+ account today and get 50% off your first year at just $99.99 for the year. After a year, the price is going to increase to $199. Lock in your special early-bird deal today!
Until now, there was a void in the industry. An all-in-one prop bet research tool for Over/Under rankings did not exist. Fantasy SP has changed that.
Of course, you could find betting trends on the internet but there wasn’t a place where you could have all the information for every single player on the same page at your fingertips. Well, we wanted to change that. We’ve created the definitive NFL prop bet research tool for pros and newbies alike.
In a typical NFL week, there can be over 1,000 player prop lines available. Traditional player game logs are not optimal for researching player props. Our unique tool allows you to quickly analyze thousands of lines on your phone, tablet, or computer, and find the props with the greatest value. Don’t just bet on the players you like. Become more data-driven with your props research by using Fantasy SP’s Player Prop Over/Under Rankings!
This is the perfect prop bet research tool to make some serious cash. Place informed bets using relevant analytics and increase your chances of seeing your bankroll increase.
With our brand-new Player Prop Over/Under Rankings Research Tool, users will be able to filter by tons of critical data points including home vs. away, favorite vs. underdog, player popularity, last few games, indoor vs. outdoor, specific props, specific teams, position rank, opponent rank, and so much more!
Research Prop Bet Betting Example
Okay, enough talk, and let’s get to a simple real-world example of how to use the tool to help you place a bet.
For example, Jared Goff has had some of the most ridiculous home/away splits in 2022.
Goff has a passer rating of 106.9 with 2,217 yards (277.1 yards per game), 20 touchdowns, and 3 interceptions in eight games at home this season. Pretty good, right? On the road, he has a passer rating of 82.5 with 1,387 yards (231.2 yards per game), 3 touchdowns, and 4 interceptions in six games.
As you can see, Goff is averaging 46 more yards per game at home in 2022 entering Week 16. Vegas may try to trick you when Goff is on the road after coming off a massive home game but by using our tool, you won’t be fooled.
Goff has a 5-3 O-U record on his passing yard props at Ford Field this season. While his average line at home on DraftKings is 247 yards, his average result is 277.1 passing yards. Prior to throwing for 250+ yards against the Jets at the Meadowlands in Week 15, he was 2-3 on his passing yards props on the road. His average line on DraftKings on the road was only 10 yards fewer heading into Week 15 yet he averaged a full 50 fewer yards per game (227). This shows a clear pattern that he is much more successful at hitting the over and much more efficient when playing in front of his home crowd. There are countless examples of patterns you can spot using this brand-new prop tool that are even more eye-popping than Goff’s numbers.
How to Find Favorable Prop Bets
The key to placing informed bets is to place bets on clear patterns. Ideally, you want to see a player consistently going over or under. Grab a concise list of potential bets to place and compare to the lines at your favorite operator.
Let’s say you want to place a passing yards prop bet on Tom Brady. You check all the lines at your favorite operator (we suggest
Caesars or FanDuel) and need to put his line into context. How often does he go over? What outcomes occur against an easy matchup? What is his average result? How does he do at home versus on the road?
Using our exclusive Over-Under Rankings, you can utilize our premium filters to find out Brady’s historical prop record at home versus the road is even more volatile than Goff’s splits. (This is good and what we want to see.)
At home, Brady is averaging a whopping 307.3 passing yards and has hit the over in six of seven games heading into Week 15.
On the road, while his average line is only two yards fewer (271.2 to 269.2), he has a 1-5 O-U record and is only averaging 239 passing yards per game.
Fantasy SP has just highlighted a very promising prop bet whenever Brady is at home. Take the over. And when he is on the road, it’s a prime spot to smash the under.
Some players also tend to do much better when their team is the favorite such as running backs late in the fourth quarter when their team needs to kill time. Heading into Week 15, Dalvin Cook had a 7-2 O-U rushing yard record when his team was the favorite (79.9 yards per game). Conversely, when the Vikings were underdogs, he was 1-3 (57.8 yards per game). This is why filtering by favorite or underdog can be a critical data point to help you gain an edge at sportsbooks.
You can also filter by the last few games in case a player has begun to heat up or cool off. These filters will help you nail your bets in very specific scenarios. It’s the perfect tool for situational prop betting.
What the Experts Are Saying
Don’t simply trust our word. We provided a free preview to professional bettors and journalists and this is what they had to say:
“I don’t place my player prop parlays until checking out Fantasy SP’s Prop Bet Rankings. This is the only place where I can get an in-depth historical analysis of every player in the League before placing my wagers!”
Matthew Rumack, Professional Sports Bettor
“This tool provides insight that I haven’t seen anywhere else in the sports betting industry. Fantasy SP has developed something truly unique. The premium filters that allow me to figure out how each player has performed in very specific situations are simply next-level. I will not be placing prop bets before using this tool for research!”
Mark Morales-Smith, Senior Fantasy & Gambling Writer
“The features of this prop research tool are simply awesome. It’s easy to use, easy to understand, and incredibly powerful. There is so much data at your fingertips. This is an essential piece to finding player prop betting value.”
Dan Hickman, Professional Gambling Writer
The dropdowns and filters on this tool are what really make this a game-changing feature. If you only want to see the most popular players on the page, simply slide the popularity to 75% or 100%. If you want to see players’ over-under records and their average results for only home games, simply click Home on the dropdown. If you want to see over-under records for players against teams in the bottom 5 at defending that position, simply click Bottom 5 under Position Rank. Not only can you get all of this insight, but the sliders and dropdowns all work interactively with a user-friendly interface so you can find out how a player is doing in a very specific situation. For example, let’s say Dak Prescott and the Cowboys are hosting the top-five San Francisco 49ers defense and are four-point underdogs. To get a much clearer picture of how Prescott has performed in similar situations, you can check off Home, Underdog, Indoor, and Top 5 under Opponent Rank to get his exact over-under prop historical record in this particular situation. If he is 0-3 on his passing yard prop in this scenario, you may want to smash the under.
NFL prop betting can be overwhelming but this tool makes it easy to research the best bets for novices and seasoned vets alike. Bettors should not be placing their prop bets before doing the necessary research. Now you can do all that research on one page with Fantasy SP’s Player Prop Over/Under Rankings Research Tool! It doesn’t get much better than that.
Stay tuned for our future article on even more in-depth tips and tricks.
France vs Argentina World Cup Final Betting Preview: Can Lionel Messi Capture That Elusive World Cup Title?
Picking up where they left off in 2018, the French National Team led by 23-year-old Kylian Mbappe have found their way back into the finals as they look to be the first back-to-back World Cup Champions since Brazil’s dominant runs in 1958 and 1962. Standing between that incredible feat for the defending champions is Argentina, who currently have their superstar, Lionel Messi, in top form. Messi is finding ways to create passes no one can see and he’s done it multiple times, assisting three goals (tied for the most) throughout the tournament. The legend is also scoring goals of his own and is tied with Kylian Mbappe (5 goals) for Golden Boot honors in this year’s World Cup. Regardless, soccer fans around the world are in for a treat on Sunday at 10:00 AM EST as two of the best players in the world face each other for their country’s World Cup glory.
After winning Group D, France defeated Poland in the Round of 16, England in the quarterfinals, and a strong Morocco team in the semis to advance to the Final. On the other side of the bracket, Argentina won Group C and dispatched Australia in the Round of 16. Messi and the Argentinians were then tested in the quarterfinals, needing a penalty shootout to defeat the Netherlands after blowing a late two-goal lead. Finally, Argentina played perhaps their best match of the tournament against Croatia in the semi-finals, winning 3-0. Now the stage is set for a blockbuster finale between two powerhouses featuring some of the top players in the world.
Note (from FanDuel Sportsbook): No team will play at home during Qatar's World Cup. For betting purposes, FanDuel explains that: “Home Team refers to the team listed first, Away Team refers to the second team listed.”
Argentina (-104) vs. France (-112)
Argentina Keys To Victory
Lionel Messi has played incredibly for Argentina throughout this World Cup. He is leaving opposing defenders in the dust, taking on multiple players at once, dragging them away from his teammates, which is opening up the field for his fellow goal scorers. Every time Messi has the ball at his feet, there seems to be more than one threat. Messi is playing just as well as he always has in 2022. He’s served his team as a playmaker and as a goal-scorer in Qatar. He’s also had some help from Manchester City forward Julian Alvarez who’s scored a handful of goals in this World Cup (including two in Argentina’s decisive victory over Croatia). If Alvarez and Messi are able to link up while on the attack, the depleted French defense and midfield could be in for some trouble.
France Keys To Victory
One of the biggest headlines heading into this World Cup Final is the return of French striker Karim Benzema. The Real Madrid star and winner of this year’s Ballon D’Or hurt his hamstring in one of France’s first practices soon after arriving in Qatar. He flew back to Madrid where he immediately completed his recovery work which was set at three weeks from the time of injury. Right now, Benzema is flying back to Doha and could be starting for France in the final. At the moment, France’s HC Didier Deschamps has declined to comment on whether or not he will be including KB9 in the starting lineup. France’s ball movement has been excellent throughout the tournament, but their key to victory against Argentina will be efficient defense. Over the last few games, France’s defense seems to have slowed down. Not only will they need to stop Messi, but they will need to turn defensive stops into counterattacks. Mbappe and Olivier Giroud (four goals thus far in the tournament) will need to be electric on offense and test the Argentinian keeper. Antoine Griezmann may be an x-factor for France as he has three assists in this World Cup and was inches away from scoring against Morocco.
It’s only fitting that Lionel Messi will finally hoist the World Cup trophy in his last World Cup match. Expect him to score a goal and lead his team to victory in a tightly contested battle.
The Pick: Argentina (-104)
World Cup Final Best Prop Bets
Kylian Mbappe: To Score Or Give Assist (+100)
Mbappé has been relatively quiet over France’s last few games. Still, he is the main wing on France’s team who is capable of breaking down defenses through his skillful technique and ridiculous speed. He currently is tied with Messi for the most goals in the 2022 World Cup. If he isn’t able to score in this game, then expect him to at least make an assist. For France to win this one, the 23-year-old will need to have a big game.
Lionel Messi: Anytime Goalscorer (+190)
Messi has stepped up his performance big time this World Cup. If you have watched Argentina play in this tournament, you know how crucial of a role Messi has played in the team’s success. He is tied for the most goals in the tournament with Mbappe and has a great chance of putting the ball in the net at some point during Sunday’s big match. This is a particularly great prop to target since Messi takes all of Argentina’s penalty shots and has converted four-of-five throughout the tournament.
Fantasy SP has worked diligently to bring you next-level sports betting analytics, prop betting tools, public betting splits, and so much more! Become an Edge+ member today!
Calling every sports fan across the globe! The best month for all things sports is here: December. NFL and CFB are getting into the thick of things — I mean, we are finally not seeing Alabama and Clemson in the CFP, not to mention both the NBA and NHL are underway and college basketball just tipped off!
Despite all of these different sporting events going on, the World’s biggest Sporting event is down to the Semifinals, the World Cup.
Although Soccer is the World's most popular sport, it still struggles to gain support in the US. However, every 4 years Soccer takes the country by storm and this year, and these last few games are going to be amazing.
Let us introduce you to your new go-to app, FanDuel Sportsbook. It’s the place to be for not only the usual sports, but for this year's World Cup!
FanDuel Sportsbook is providing a multitude of features with a few market differentiators.
- World Cup Winner
- Who will win the Golden Boot (the award for the top goal scorer of the World Cup)
- Highest scoring Group
- And more
- Popular Markets - outside of the normal Moneyline, Spread & Over/Under lines, FanDuel will also be offering:
- Anytime Goal Scorer
- First Goal Scorer
- Shots on Goal
- Correct Score
- Number of Corner Kicks
- Half-Time Result
- Tournament Goal Scorer Parlay Builder - build your own tournament-long Goal Scorer parlays with your favorite players from every team.
- Daily Specials:
- Highest scoring team of the day
- Total daily goals
- Player specials
- And More!
- Live Parlays
Out of all the betting apps we’ve used, signing up for FanDuel Sportsbook is also the easiest. Simply download the app and create an account by providing an email, credit card, and SS# — that’s to protect your winnings and ensure you're not a sporting professional.
FanDuel is undoubtedly the best site/app to parlay across multiple sports. It’s designed for bettors at any stage. The clear interface is ideal for beginners and you can make a bet in just a few clicks! It’s complete with a number of betting guides that explain the rules and resources to safely bet.
One of the best parts is that once the game ends, you can cash out your winnings right away. No minimum, no wait.
There’s also the incredible New User Offer: sign up with FanDuel Sportsbook and get up to $1000 in Free Bets if you lose your first bet!
Their app has everything you need — from tutorials to real-time game scores. Get amped for the World Cup with FanDuel Sportsbook. Enhance your Sportsember by downloading the FanDuel Sportsbook app today!