Phoenix Suns
Tonight, we have Game 5s between two Conference Semi-Finals that are all tied up at two games apiece.
Philadelphia managed to win both Games 3 and 4 at home, despite the orbital fracture and the other injury issues affecting Joel Embiid. Tonight, Miami will look to put them in their place. After that, the Suns return to Phoenix where they host Luka Doncic and the Mavericks. Jason Kidd’s defensive adjustments after the first two games of the series have caused nightmares for Chris Paul and Devin Booker who both played inefficiently over the last two games in Dallas. Let’s take a look at tonight’s best NBA Playoffs bets and player props.
Please Note: All odds and lines are from FanDuel Sportsbook and were accurate at 4 PM EST. Be sure to check for line movement or odd changes.
Best Bets of the Night
Game: Philadelphia 76ers at Miami Heat (Series Tied 2-2)
Despite Joel Embiid’s injuries, the big man has managed to lead his team to decisive home victories in Games 3 and 4 to even up the series. While some thought Embiid’s orbital fracture was an indication that the Heat would win this series in about five games, this Eastern Conference Semi-Final couldn’t be closer. One of the main issues for the Heat has been poor shooting from the field. For example, Tyler Herro scored 14 points (5-15 FG) in Game 3, and 11 points (4-12 FG) in Game 4. Over the last two games, Herro has combined for 9-of-27 shooting from the field, which is just not enough. In Games 1 and 2, Herro shot above 50% from the field each and scored at least 18 points. Even though Jimmy Butler scored 33 points (12-22 FG) in Game 3, and an impressive 40 points (13-20 FG) in Game 4, it still wasn’t enough to secure wins on the road against Philly. It was in Game 3 that the Heat played particularly badly as a team. They only scored 79 points (27-77 FG) on an atrocious 35.1% shooting from the field. Philly shot 47.8% from the field in the contest with efficiency from some typically quiet players. Danny Green stood out for a stellar scoring night, scoring 21 points on seven-of-nine shooting from deep (all of his FGs were three-pointers). Tonight, the Heat are in trouble as Kyle Lowry has been ruled out while the team has a long list of players listed as questionable for Game 5.
Though the Heat played better in Game 4, Bam Adebayo and Jimmy Buckets were the only two players who shot above 50% from the field. In fact, Adebayo and Butler combined for 22-of-32 (or 68.8 FG%) shooting from the field while the rest of the team only converted 16-of-50 field goal attempts (32 FG%). Tyler Herro needs to wake up on the offensive end and provide support for Bam and Butler who cannot carry their team every night. Herro has owned up to his inefficiency over the last few games and is poised to turn it around in Game 5. In their return to Miami, the Heat will wake up and secure a strong win before heading back to Philly for Game 6.
The Pick: Miami Heat - 3 (-110)
Game: Dallas Mavericks at Phoenix Suns -6 (Series Tied 2-2)
In this series, the fans have played a huge role. Both Luka Doncic and Chris Paul have gotten into uncomfortable situations with fans who are talking trash (and definitely going too far). Without getting into who is right or wrong (fans or players), the fact is that the home crowds have negatively impacted the performance of the visiting stars. For that reason, expect Luka and the Mavericks to struggle tonight. In addition, Chris Paul has truly played horribly over the last two games. He finished Game 4 with five points and seven assists before fouling out early in the fourth quarter. In Game 3, Dallas’ defense held him to 12 points (5-9 FG) and only four assists. Jason Kidd is due some credit for the coaching adjustments he’s made. Specifically, he’s given Frank Nitlikina significant minutes off the bench over the last two games to contain Devin Booker and Chris Paul. Nitlikina’s wingspan and stellar defensive play have worked great. However, NBA Coach of the Year Monty Williams knows this and will have a game plan to counter Kidd’s successful tactics. Phoenix will bounce back in Game 5 feeding off of the home crowd’s energy. In addition, I suspect Monty Williams will have some answers tonight to counter Jason Kidd's highly effective defense from Games 3 and 4.
The Pick: Phoenix Suns - 6 (-114)
NBA Player Props
Game: Dallas Mavericks at Phoenix Suns -6 (Series Tied 2-2)
Prop: Jae Crowder Over 10.5 Points (-118)
While Jason Kidd has turned on his defense to contain Devin Booker and Chris Paul, he doesn’t have enough bodies to guard every Phoenix Sun. Jae Crowder has produced efficiently throughout this series and has a great chance of hitting at least 11 points in 30+ minutes at home tonight.
Prop: Chris Paul Over 16.5 Points (-106)
Over the last two games, Chris Paul has only recorded a combined 17 points. Defensive changes made by Jason Kidd paid off in Games 3 and 4. Monty Williams and the Suns were not prepared for the changes made by the Mavericks' defense. Upon their return home, they will have answers. Expect at least 20 points from Paul in Phoenix in Game 5.
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Luka Doncic, Dallas Mavericks (Left); Devin Booker, Phoenix Suns (Right)
Tonight, we have two pivotal Game 6's on the schedule.
The Miami Heat will look to close out the series against the 76ers on the road while the Dallas Mavericks will try to survive after being blown out in Phoenix in Game 5. Let's take a look at some of tonight's best NBA Playoffs bets and player props.
Please Note: All odds and lines are from FanDuel Sportsbook and were accurate at 3:30 PM EST. Be sure to check for line movement or odd changes.
Best Bets of the Night
Game: Miami Heat at Philadelphia 76ers -2.5 (MIA Leads 3-2)
As expected, the Miami Heat bounced back at home in Game 5 to take a 3-2 lead over the 76ers. Joel Embiid has been playing through an orbital fracture which is clearly affecting him. When competing for a rebound with Miami center Dewayne Dedmon, Dedmon’s hand made contact with Embiid’s face not too severely, but it caused the MVP runner-up significant and visible pain.
The 76ers have a good shot at winning tonight’s game, but Miami’s defense has been the key to their success this series. In Game 5, the 76ers were held to 85 points and 36.5% shooting from the field. In addition, not one player on the 76ers scored more than 17 points in Game 5. Miami's defense was physical but clean as no member of the team recorded more than three personal fouls and the team forced Philly into committing a whopping 15 turnovers. Miami shot poorly from the field in Philadelphia in Game 3 and Game 4 but bounced back in Game 5. Seven members of the Heat produced double-digit points. Ultimately, the Heat finished the night with 120 points, converting 53.6% of their shots taken from the field. Seeing as how the Memphis Grizzlies avoided elimination at home in Game 5 and blew out the Golden State Warriors, I expect the 76ers to bounce back tonight and tie the series up in Game 6. Joel Embiid has to perform to his potential and limit Bam Adebayo's production when on the defensive end of the court. If this happens, the Sixers should win by at least three points and cover the spread.
The Pick: Philadelphia 76ers -2.5 (-110)
Game: Phoenix Suns at Dallas Mavericks +2 (PHX Leads 3-2)
One of the major trends in this Western Conference Semifinal matchup between the Suns and the Mavericks has been the instrumental role of both teams’ home crowds. Both Luka Doncic and Chris Paul were impacted and distracted by loud-mouthed fans in the home crowds. While the words coming out of their mouths are likely condemnable, Doncic and Paul both played significantly worse on the road than they did at home. While the Mavericks struggled to score in Phoenix, Devin Booker had another huge night.
In this series, both teams won all of their home games and lost all of their road games. The changes Jason Kidd made to the Dallas defense did not hold up against the Phoenix Suns in Game 5. In fact, Monty Williams seems to have found some answers for the Mavericks on the defensive end of the floor. As a team, the Mavericks were held to only 80 points on 38% shooting from the field on Tuesday night. Specifically, Dallas struggled from beyond the arc, converting 8-of-32 (25%) of their three-pointers. Nonetheless, the inflated advantage of playing at home in this series will help the Mavericks keep things interesting in Game 6, and perhaps help Dallas bring it back to Phoenix for a Game 7.
The Pick: Dallas Mavericks +2 (-110)
NBA Player Props
Game: Phoenix Suns at Dallas Mavericks +2 (PHX Leads 3-2)
Prop: Reggie Bullock Over 9.5 Points
Reggie Bullock has had a rough couple of games. Bullock played a total of 74 minutes over the last two games of the series yet only scored a combined seven points on 2-11 shooting. He scored those seven points in Game 4 and went scoreless in Game 5. Back at home tonight, expect Reggie to knock down at least two or three three-pointers on his way to a double-digit performance in terms of scoring.
Prop: Devin Booker Over 2.5 Threes
Devin Booker has converted at least three three-pointers in each of his last four outings. Booker has combined for 15-of-27 (61%) shooting from downtown between Game 2 and Game 5. In a crucial Game 6, the Phoenix Suns might lose, but Devin Booker will shoot respectably from the field and knock down at least three threes. It would be quite surprising to see him fall short of 20 points.
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Luka Doncic, Dallas Mavericks
Tonight, we have two Conference Semifinal Game 3s.
In the East, the Miami Heat visits the Philadelphia 76ers for Game 3 after winning the first two games of this second-round series by double-digits. The second game of the night will feature the red-hot Chris Paul and the Phoenix Suns who head to Dallas also after winning the first two games of their series at home. Let’s take a look at some of the best bets and player props for both of tonight’s playoff matchups.
Please Note: All odds and lines are from FanDuel Sportsbook and were accurate at 10 AM EST. Be sure to check for line movement or odd changes.
Best Bets of the Night
Game: Miami Heat at Philadelphia 76ers +3 (MIA Leads 2-0)
Joel Embiid has officially been ruled out of Game 3 after having missed Games 1 and 2 due to an orbital fracture he sustained in Game 6 of Philadelphia's first-round series against the Toronto Raptors. As a result, the 76ers absolutely struggled to compete with the Miami Heat in the first two games of this Eastern Conference Semifinal.
Embiid’s absence from the rotation has allowed Miami’s bigs Bam Adebayo more space to dominate down low. In Game 1, Adebayo produced 24 points (8-10 FG), 12 rebounds, four assists, and one block. In Game 2, he similarly dominated in the paint for 23 points (7-11 FG), nine rebounds, and three assists. Without size in the paint, Philly is in trouble, and Miami is targeting their defense where they are weak. While DeAndre Jordan has seen approximately 15 MPG in Games 1 and 2, he simply cannot keep up with Adebayo’s strength, youth, and athleticism. In addition, Miami has been able to win big without their main ball-handler Kyle Lowry. Although he isn’t there to provide the 7.5 assists he averaged this season, Gabe Vincent has played respectably in 30+ MPG throughout his absence while Victor Oladipo’s added minutes allowed him to score 19 points (6-11 FG) in Game 2. Finally, James Harden has not been able to step it up on offense while Embiid has been sidelined. Harden scored just 16 points (5-13 FG) in Game 1, and 20 points (6-15 FG) in Game 2. The superstar scorer really became a play-maker for Philadelphia, averaging 10.5 assists per game since he joined the team. He’s adjusted his role in NBA games from sheer scorer to playmaker but is now being asked to score more with Embiid out. At least through the first two games of the series, Harden has not been able to score more than 20 points and converted well below 40% of his shots taken from the field in each contest. Philadelphia looks lost on the floor without Embiid and has no size in the paint to counter Adebayo or other Miami scorers looking to drive the ball. At the moment, it’s looking like Miami will extend their lead to 3-0 over the 76ers after tomorrow’s game.
The Pick: Miami Heat -3 (-112)
Game: Phoenix Suns at Dallas Mavericks -1 (PHX Leads 2-0)
Luka Doncic was visibly frustrated Wednesday night facing the Suns on the road. In Game 2, Doncic could be seen multiple times responding to heckles and insults from fans who successfully got in his head. Though he had another great offensive outing, he collapsed mentally in the fourth quarter which allowed Chris Paul and the Suns to capitulate. In the fourth quarter, CP3 erupted for 14 points making basket after basket without missing a shot. The Suns’ superstar ultimately had another impressive night finishing with 28 points (11-16 FG).
The Suns quickly extended their lead to 20+ points and the game was over midway through the fourth quarter, in which the Suns scored 40 points to Dallas’ 26. It's also important to know that a nice chunk of the Mavs’ 26 fourth-quarter points came in garbage time. While the Suns should win this series comfortably, the Mavericks will take Game 3. Though Doncic had a great night in Game 2 finishing with 35 points (13-22 FG), he collapsed mentally in the fourth quarter largely due to passionate yet obnoxious Suns fans. Tonight, Luka will score 40+ points with the Dallas crowd by his side. It’s likely that the Mavericks fans will retaliate, and try to affect CP3 and Devin Booker. While Phoenix should comfortably reach the Western Conference Finals, I like the Mavericks to bounce back at home with Luka Doncic feeding off of the Dallas crowd.
The Pick: Dallas Mavericks -1 (-112)
Tonight’s NBA Player Props
Game: Phoenix Suns at Dallas Mavericks -1 (PHX Leads 2-0)
Prop #1: Luka Doncic, Over 7.5 Assists (-130)
Luka Doncic’s scoring O/U is set at 34.5 points for tonight. While there is a good chance he drops over 40 points to bring a victory for the Mavericks in Game 3 at home, him dishing at least eight assists is more realistic. Over the last three games, Doncic has distributed eight, eight, and seven assists respectively. In Game 2, Doncic barely played in the fourth quarter (garbage time) which limited him to 36 minutes. Normally, he plays 40+ MPG in the playoffs. Doncic should hit 10+ assists in Dallas’ return home as they hope to bounce back against the Phoenix Suns.
Prop #2: Maxi Kleber, Over 1.5 Threes (-128)
Maxi Kleber emerged as an important scorer for the Mavericks specifically in Games 2 and 3 of their first-round series against the Utah Jazz. He shot for a combined 12-of-15 from downtown through those two games. Kleber went quiet for the rest of the series, to erupt for five-of-eight shooting from downtown in Game 1 against the Suns. While Kleber missed all three attempts from downtown on Wednesday night, he’s played approximately 25 MPG this postseason and has had multiple games over his last ten where he’s shot well above 60% from downtown. As a result, he has a great chance of knocking down at least two three-pointers tonight against the Suns.
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Cameron Johnson (Left), Chris Paul (Mid), Mikal Bridges (Right), Phoenix Suns
Two first-round series in the West are all tied up heading into Game 5's tonight.
After an abysmal collapse in Game 3, Minnesota was able to win Game 4 at home. Likewise, the New Orleans Pelicans lost to the Suns by three points in Game 3 but won by 15 points in Game 4. Phoenix will look to bounce back tonight. Finally, Miami will look to eliminate the Atlanta Hawks at home tonight after blowing them out in Atlanta in Game 4. Let's take a look at some of tonight's best NBA bets.
Best Bets of the Night
Game: Atlanta Hawks at Miami Heat -7 (MIA Leads Series 3-1)
While the Hawks have fought valiantly to make their way through the play-in games, they now have to win three games in a row including two on the road to move past the Heat. With such an unlikely scenario for the Hawks and Miami’s desire to get some rest before the second round of the NBA playoffs, the Heat are looking hot going into tonight’s game. Game 4 ended in a 110-86 blowout victory, led once again by Jimmy Butler’s dominance. He produced a 36-point (12-21 FG), 10-rebound double-double and recorded four steals in Game 4.
In addition, Miami completely locked down Trae Young in the last game, holding him to nine points (3-11 FG) in 36 minutes of action. Young shot six-of-14 in Game 3 and was also held to eight points (1-12 FG) in Game 1. Although the Raptors are fighting back and have won two games after losing the first three of their first-round series, the Hawks' outlook is much bleaker. The Hawks' 2021-22 season ends tonight in South Florida.
The Pick: Miami Heat -7 (-110)
Game: Minnesota Timberwolves at Memphis Grizzlies -6 (Series Tied 2-2)
Karl-Anthony Towns went from producing eight points and five rebounds in Game 3 to recorded a 33-point and 14-rebound double-double in Game 4 to help his team even the series up. Game 5 will be tonight in Memphis, and the Grizzlies will defend the home floor. The way Desmond Bane erupted in Game 3 on the road gives me all the confidence that he has a huge game at home in Game 5 tonight. This is a very tough series to predict, but Memphis remains one of the best teams in the league, and they should bounce back big after a stinger of a loss in Game 4.
The Pick: Memphis Grizzlies -6
Game: New Orleans Pelicans at Phoenix Suns -6.5 (Series Tied 2-2)
Chris Paul was special in Game 3, but rookies Herbert Jones and Jose Alvarado created nightmares for him in Game 4. Though he scored 28 points and dished out 14 assists to carry the Suns in Game 3, CP3 was contained to only four points on two-of-eight shooting from the field in Game 4. It’s crucial to remember that Devin Booker is still out and that Phoenix will likely be without him for the remainder of the series. In Phoenix tonight, the Suns will bounce back. In turn, expect the Pelicans to be the favorites at home in Game 6. This is one series that I feel will head to a Game 7. One team wins, and the other bounces back. The Suns will win by 10+ points tonight after a 15-point loss in Game 5.
The Pick: Phoenix Suns - 6.5
NBA Player Props of the Night
Game: New Orleans Pelicans at Phoenix Suns -6.5 (Series Tied 2-2)
Prop #1: Cameron Johnson Under 14.5 Points
Cameron Johnson has played great all season and now that Devin Booker is out of the rotation, his scoring opportunities per game are elevated. However, he’s scored 11, 8, and 13 points respectively in the last three games. While D-Book has been out, Johnson has played efficiently, but hasn’t scored more than 14 points in any game since March.
Prop #2: Mikal Bridges Over 4.5 Rebounds
Mikal Bridges' Over in rebounds hits frequently, but not always. The reason he will grab at least five boards off the glass tonight is that the Phoenix Suns will be having a resurgent defensive game. The Pelicans will be missing more shots than they did on Sunday night when they scored 118 points.
