It’s the final week of the regular season, so before the NFL Playoffs begin, let’s nail some picks and head into the postseason with some extra cash to wager on the most exciting games of the year.
This season, we converted 62.5% of our Best Bets, which is an unheard-of percentage. The most successful sports bettors only get about 60% of their bets correct. It is simply unrealistic to think that you are going to win at a higher rate than that. Of course, there will be good days and bad days, but it is important to trust your process and remain diligent. And especially when you are just getting your feet wet in the sports betting world, it’s important to temper your expectations. Sports betting is not a quick money-making scheme. It is not realistic to expect a small deposit will turn into life-changing winnings. The most successful gamblers know that the only way to be profitable over a long period of time is to increase your bankroll in small increments.
With the regular season coming to a finish, there are no games this week on Thursday. There are two games on Saturday – the Kansas City Chiefs at the Denver Broncos followed by the Dallas Cowboys at the Philadelphia Eagles. In Week 18, no Monday night game will be played. The rest of this week’s games will be played on Sunday, concluding with a primetime matchup on Sunday Night Football between the Los Angeles Chargers at the Las Vegas Raiders. That game will have tons of playoff implications.
The postseason picture has become a whole lot clearer in recent weeks. 11 of the 14 playoff berths have already been clinched. The Green Bay Packers have locked down the top seed in the NFC, so they may not play their starters the entire game in Week 18 against the Detroit Lions, despite Matt Lafleur stating the opposite. The Titans will clinch a bye and the top seed in the AFC if they defeat the Houston Texans on Sunday. Tempers will be incredibly high for teams jockeying for playoff seeding, and particularly for teams attempting to clinch one of the three final playoff spots remaining (two in the AFC and one in the NFC).
And with that, it’s time to gear up for this week’s edition of NFL best bets. It takes a lot of energy and research to have success over the course of a season when it comes to sports betting. Here at FantasySP, we are committed to helping you cash. Remember, if you win 55% of your bets, you are a really good gambler. We are looking at some eye-opening odds this week and will help you decipher the best games to place your money on, whether it’s against-the-spread picks, moneylines, over-unders, or prop bets. With that, let’s dive in.
WEEK 18 NFL BEST BETS
Kansas City Chiefs (-10.5) at Denver Broncos
Although the Chiefs perhaps blew their opportunity to win the top seed in the AFC by losing a heartbreaker to the Cincinnati Bengals last week, Kansas City can still earn a first-round bye and the No. 1 seed in their conference. They must win this game and hope that the Tennessee Titans somehow lose to the Houston Texans.
Last week, the Chiefs’ offense performed despite the absence of Clyde Edwards-Helaire and underwhelming performances from Tyreek Hill and Travis Kelce. Still, Kansas City posted 31 points. It was the defense and some costly (and controversial penalties) that cost them the game. Kansas City’s defense has been on the rise prior to Week 17 and will get back on track against a Denver Broncos offense that has struggled to move the chains with Drew Lock under center. Lock has been unable to take advantage of some decent weapons in Jerry Jeudy, Courtland Sutton, Tim Patrick, and Noah Fant. Although Jeudy and Patrick missed Week 17 due to COVID-19, the Broncos didn’t score a touchdown until the final minutes of their loss to the Chargers in garbage time. Lock is one of the worst quarterbacks in the league and it’s tough to envision the Broncos putting up more than 20 points in this game. Even Denver’s strong suit, their running game, has gone cold in recent weeks. Melvin Gordon and Javonte Williams combined for just 73 rushing yards and zero touchdowns on 24 carries against an abysmal Chargers run defense.
Meanwhile, Mahomes has the best weapons in the league and has done an excellent job utilizing Darrell Williams out of the backfield. The Chiefs should roll in this one and dominate a Broncos team that has been officially eliminated from the playoffs. Kansas City will have no problem covering the spread despite playing on the road in Week 18.
- Pick: Chiefs (-10.5)
- Prediction: 30-16 Chiefs
San Francisco 49ers (+4.5) at Los Angeles Rams
San Francisco needs this victory to get into the playoffs while the Rams need this game to clinch the division over the Arizona Cardinals. This is probably the most interesting NFC matchup on the Week 18 slate. Under Kyle Shanahan, the Niners have gotten the best of Sean McVay’s Rams in recent meetings, including a 31-10 Week 10 blowout earlier this season. However, the 49ers won the first meeting with Jimmy G under center, but there is a decent chance rookie Trey Lance will be under center in the rematch.
Lance struggled to get it going early last week but finished strong against the Texans. He made some huge throws and moved the chains with his legs when needed. That said, the Rams defense is much better than Houston’s defensive unit. Aaron Donald and Leonard Floyd will provide pressure like Lance has never seen before, and the Rams’ secondary featuring Jalen Ramsey will make things a lot more difficult for the rookie quarterback.
San Francisco will attempt to utilize their run-heavy approach, but Donald and the rest of the Rams will do a good job at limiting the Niners’ success on the ground. On the other side of the ball, Matthew Stafford has struggled with turnovers recently, but San Francisco has one of the worst secondaries in the league. Cooper Kupp will have a massive day, and it doesn’t hurt that Stafford and Odell Beckham are starting to link up for touchdowns on a weekly basis. Stafford is going to pick apart this secondary. And although the Niners have a stout rushing defense themselves, Sony Michel has done an excellent job since Darrell Henderson went down with an injury. Although the game plan will call for more passing plays than running plays, I still think Michel will have some success.
Both teams are 8-8 ATS this season, however, San Francisco failed to cover the one time they were road underdogs earlier this season. Meanwhile, Los Angeles is 3-3 ATS as home favorites.
Overall, I think San Francisco’s secondary is not strong enough to stop Stafford and his elite wide receiver corps. And Trey Lance has struggled to get superstar tight end George Kittle involved in the offense. Expect a hard-fought battle, with the Rams eventually getting the victory and clinching the NFC West. Although 61% of the bets ATS are on the Niners, a whopping 86% of the money is backing the Rams. In this scenario, it is a good idea to follow the “smart money.”
- Pick: Rams (-4.5)
- Prediction: 27-20 Rams
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Los Angeles Chargers (-3) at Las Vegas Raiders
The final game of the week will be a thriller. This is essentially a playoff game. The winner will earn a postseason berth and the loser will be watching the playoffs from home. Many didn’t expect the Raiders to be in this position, but they played a great game in Week 17, defeating the Indianapolis Colts on the road, largely behind their defense. Derek Carr has done well this season, particularly since he has been missing superstar tight end, Darren Waller, for the last month. Hunter Renfrow has come through in the clutch. Not only did he catch a touchdown last week, but he also made a great play in the late stages of last week’s game to set up Daniel Carlson’s game-winning field goal as time expired. The Raiders are now in a position to somehow earn a wild-card berth.
After losing to the Texans in an embarrassing fashion in Week 16, the Chargers got back on track behind Justin Herbert and some pretty excellent defense against the Broncos in Week 17. Although the Chargers are on the road in Week 18, the offensive weapons around Herbert featuring Austin Ekeler, Keenan Allen, Mike Williams, and tight end Jared Cook, should provide tons of matchup problems for the Vegas defense. Although the Chargers are 0-2 as road favorites this season with a 13.5-point average deficit, Los Angeles should take care of business and clinch a spot in the postseason. Don’t expect a blowout, but I do anticipate them covering the minimal spread.
Additionally, both defenses are very exploitable, so expect a high-scoring affair. I think this game should easily produce 50+ total points.
- Pick: Chargers (-3)
- Prediction: 30-24 Chargers
- Bonus: Over 49.5 points
Dallas Cowboys (-5) at Philadelphia Eagles
Both NFC East teams have already clinched a playoff berth, however, the specific seeds in the NFC are still at stake. Dallas has a chance to earn the No. 2 seed in the NFC if they win and the Buccaneers and Rams suffer losses. The chances of that happening are pretty unlikely, so Dallas needs to be careful in who they suit up for this game. They already clinched the division so at the very worst, they will be the No. 4 seed. However, home-field advantage in any playoff game is very beneficial, so something tells me that Dak Prescott will start this game while the organization watches the scoreboard. If Dallas has no chance at moving up in the standings, Prescott may be benched. The Cowboys already lost wideout Michael Gallup for the season last week, and they don’t want to risk losing any other pivotal players.
The Eagles are currently the No. 7 seed in the NFC and the best they can do is finish as the No. 6 seed. There’s a good chance that Philadelphia rests Jalen Hurts for at least part of the game. Not to mention, Philly has a ton of players with COVID-19, so we should see several rested players on both sides of the ball.
The Cowboys are tied with the Packers for the best ATS record this season (12-4) while the Eagles are 8-7-1 ATS. Earlier this week, Jerry Jones hinted that the Cowboys will play to win. Although their running game has not looked great as of late with Ezekiel Elliott struggling immensely, this would be a good opportunity to get Zeke and Tony Pollard going ahead of the postseason. Plus, Dallas needs to get used to executing the offense without Michael Gallup.
I think it is more likely that Dallas plays their starters while Philadelphia rests a major group of their most important players. Don’t be surprised to see Gardner Minshew under center rather than Hurts. For this reason, I’m taking Dallas.
- Pick: Cowboys (-5)
- Prediction: 24-17 Cowboys
Carolina Panthers (+8) at Tampa Bay Buccaneers
The Panthers are an absolute mess and will be starting Sam Darnold on Sunday. Their offensive line has been atrocious, giving absolutely no room for rookie Chuba Hubbard to find any holes. Not to mention, Tampa has one of the best run defenses in the NFL. The Bucs will dominate the trenches just as they did in the last meeting between these two teams in Week 16 when Brady led the Bucs to a 32-6 victory.
Carolina has the second-worst ATS record (5-11) in the NFL. Since the Bucs are still fighting for playoff positioning, Brady should play most (if not all) of this game. With Chris Godwin out for the season and Antonio Brown recently released, Brady will need to continue to establish a rapport with the rest of the wide receivers on the roster.
Expect the Buccaneers’ defense to turn in a strong outing against a Carolina offense that is prone to turning the ball over. I anticipate the Bucs leaning on their defense and the running game to get the victory. Tampa Bay has already clinched the division, but if they lose and the San Francisco 49ers win, the Bucs would have to face a team that nobody wants to see in the first round of the postseason. However, if the Bucs are victorious, they may be able to avoid the Niners in the wild-card round. That’s why I expect the Bucs to go all out to get the victory, as they would earn the No. 2 seed in the conference with a win and a Rams loss.
- Pick: Bucs (-8)
- Prediction: 30-17 Bucs
Top Week 18 NFL Player Props
Note: Keep in mind that not all player props have been released. These are the top five player props that have been released at the time of this publication.
- Cooper Kupp Under 136.5 receiving yards (-115)
- Deebo Samuel Over 47.5 receiving yards (-115)
- Tyreek Hill Over 62.5 receiving yards (-110)
- Josh Jacobs Over 55.5 rushing yards (-110)
- Patrick Mahomes Over 268.5 passing yards (-110)
Welcome to our Week 14 edition of NFL Best Bets!
On the season, we are now 22-13 with our recommendations. Not to mention, a bunch of our bonus picks hit so if you made parlays with the right selections, you could be up tons of cash. If you have been following our picks, you are likely making some serious money this NFL season.
After a crazy month of upsets and surprising finishes, Week 13 was a strangely normal affair across the NFL. Almost all of the massively favored teams not only won but covered the spread, including the Buccaneers over the Falcons (favored by 11 points), the Rams over the Jaguars (favored by 14 points), and the Chiefs over the Raiders (favored by 9.5 points). The biggest upset of the week was the Detroit Lions defeating the Minnesota Vikings on a last-second 11-yard strike from Jared Goff to rookie wide receiver Amon-Ra St. Brown. However, we recommend the Lions against the spread, so it actually wasn’t that much of a surprise.
There are just five weeks left in the regular season as we inch closer to Christmas. Let’s celebrate early by hitting our wagers in Week 14. December is usually the month when teams start to separate from the rest of the pack, however, the playoff picture is very unclear outside of a few of the top teams in each conference. A whopping 12 teams in the AFC have a .500 or better record. Four of those squads will go head-to-head in pivotal division matchups. Week 14 will be capped off on Monday night with the first-place Arizona Cardinals taking on the second-place Los Angeles Rams in a battle between two NFC West division foes.
Week 14 kicked off with a matchup between the Pittsburgh Steelers and Minnesota Vikings. Unsurprisingly, the Vikings were involved in another one-possession game. After getting crushed the first three quarters of the game, Ben Roethlisberger came just a few yards short of leading the Steelers to an improbable comeback. However, Minnesota made a last-second stand, forcing an incomplete pass as time expired, the opposite of what they did in Week 13 against the Lions. Minnesota covered the spread and won the game, 36-28. The Steelers are now 6-6-1 while the Vikings are 6-7.
As the postseason picture begins to become more clear, it’s time to gear up for this week’s edition of NFL best bets. It takes a lot of energy and research to have success over the course of a season when it comes to sports betting. Here at Fantasy SP, we are committed to helping you cash. Remember, if you win 55% of your bets, you are a really good gambler. We are looking at some eye-opening odds this week and will help you decipher the best games to place your money on, whether it’s moneylines, over-unders, or prop bets. With that, let’s dive in.
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WEEK 14 NFL BEST BETS
Baltimore Ravens at Cleveland Browns (-3)
Although the public is backing the Browns with 72% of the spread bets on Cleveland to cover, this is a great opportunity to make a contrarian bet. The Baltimore Ravens are coming off an emotional loss to the Steelers last week, in which they failed to convert a two-point conversion, and lost by a single point. In retrospect, they probably should have kicked the field goal and forced overtime, but it’s hard to fault head coach John Harbaugh for the gutsy call. Lamar Jackson has connected with Mark Andrews eight of nine times for touchdowns within the five-yard line. The Ravens very well could have won that game and everyone would be praising Harbaugh for his surprising play call.
The 8-4 Ravens no longer sit atop the AFC standings and face a 6-6 Cleveland Browns squad battling for postseason life. Although the Browns are favored in this game, this would be a toss-up if they were playing on a neutral field. When looking at both rosters, Baltimore is clearly the superior team. They have a better point margin, a better quarterback by a mile, and perhaps the best defensive line in the NFL when it comes to stopping the run. Cleveland won’t be able to rely on Nick Chubb and Kareem Hunt in this contest. Baltimore has stuffed a league-high 29% of rushers at or behind the line of scrimmage this season. The Ravens are going to force Baker Mayfield to beat them through the air.
When these two teams met in Week 12, Chubb and Hunt combined for just 36 rushing yards on 15 carries. And despite picking off Jackson a staggering four times, the Ravens still defeated the Browns, 16-10. I think we are looking at another low-scoring affair in which the Ravens shut down Cleveland’s running game, and Jackson does just enough on offense to escape FirstEnergy stadium with a road victory. You can take the Ravens against the spread, but I think they will win outright.
- Pick: Ravens (+130)
- Prediction: 19-17 Ravens
Dallas Cowboys at Washington Football Team (+4.5)
Washington is on a four-game winning streak and controls their own destiny with all five of their remaining games in the division, including two against the first-place Cowboys. Meanwhile, the Cowboys have been all over the place this past month.
Washington narrowly escaped the last two weeks with 17-15 victories over the Seattle Seahawks and Las Vegas Raiders. They didn’t look like the better team in either contest though. Quarterback Taylor Heinicke is playing very good, mistake-free football, but both the offensive and defensive line are riddled with injuries. Star pass rushers Chase Young and Montez Sweat are out for the season. Plus, J.D. McKissic could be sidelined for another game and tight end Logan Thomas was placed on Injured Reserve after suffering a nasty knee injury last week.
Dallas had indeed struggled in recent weeks, but it’s important to look at the context. Dak Prescott missed Week 8, top-tier left tackle Tyron Smith missed the next three weeks, and wide receivers Amari Cooper and CeeDee Lamb missed most of Week 11 and Week 12. With all their playmakers back in the lineup last week against the New Orleans Saints, Dallas put together a convincing 27-17 victory.
Not only did the offense come together last week, but the defense also played one if its best contests, forcing Taysom Hill to throw an eye-popping four interceptions. Prescott is 19-8 against the spread in career division games and has covered 70% of the time. Dallas is also 2-0 in division games this season. I would have been more comfortable with the 3.5-point spread from earlier in the week, but I would still lay the points and take Dallas.
- Pick: Cowboys (-4.5)
- Prediction: 24-17 Cowboys
Los Angeles Rams at Arizona Cardinals (-2.5)
The Rams snapped their three-game losing streak by absolutely crushing the Jacksonville Jaguars last week. However, they have to head to Arizona to take on the first-place Cardinals in Week 14. In the last meeting between these two teams, Arizona took care of business on the road, defeating the Rams by a score of 37-20. Don’t expect another lopsided affair, but the Cardinals should win this game with Kyler Murray and DeAndre Hopkins back in the lineup, not to mention the likely return of pass-catching running back Chase Edmonds.
Only one team has been better against the spread than the Cardinals this season. Arizona is 9-3 against the spread while the Packers are 10-2. The Cardinals are a whopping 9-1 against the spread in victories this season. The only time they didn’t cover in a game they won was back in Week 2 against the Vikings. Considering how good Murray looked under center last week, bettors should back the Cardinals at home in Week 14. Kyler threw two touchdowns and ran for an additional two scores in Arizona’s thrashing of the Chicago Bears last week.
Although the Rams looked much better on offense last week, they are still getting used to playing without Robert Woods and with Odell Beckham Jr. Matthew Stafford got back on track but hasn’t looked like the same quarterback in the second half of the season as he did earlier on in the year.
Plus, Arizona will clinch a playoff berth if they win, and will essentially wrap up the division. They would have a three-game lead over the Rams with a Week 15 date with the 1-10-1 Detroit Lions on the horizon. The Cardinals have a more complete roster in all three phases of the game and have played much more consistently, even when Colt McCoy was filling in for the injured Kyler Murray. Although three points is a decent margin in a divisional matchup, I like the Cardinals at home. I’m also taking the over in a contest between two high-powered offenses. Although only 40% of the bets are on the over, 60% of the money expects this game to exceed the 51.5-point total. Follow the “smart money” in this situation.
- Pick: Cardinals (-3)
- Bonus: Over 51.5 points
- Prediction: 30-24 Cardinals
New Orleans Saints at New York Jets (+5.5)
The Jets have lost three straight games against the spread at home while New Orleans is 3-2 against the spread in its last five road games. The Jets are just 2-6 against the spread when Zach Wilson starts at quarterback this season. This is a battle between two struggling franchises, as the Saints have lost five straight contests and have failed to cover in their last three losses. However, the easy opponent should help the Saints get back on track in Week 14.
With Taysom Hill under center, the Jets are going to struggle on defense. They have allowed the third-most rushing yards and the most rushing touchdowns this season. And in five career starts with Hill as the quarterback, the Saints are averaging 170 rushing yards per game. Plus, the Jets permitted just shy of 200 total rushing yards to an Eagles offense that was playing without Jalen Hurts last week.
With Alvin Kamara expected to make his long-awaited return this week, the Saints should breeze to an easy victory. Sean Payton is going to run the offense similar to the way Bill Belichick did last week against the Bills. Hill probably won’t even throw the ball 20 times, as New Orleans should be able to move the ball in large chunks between Hill and Kamara in the backfield. Plus, the New York Jets lost wide receiver Corey Davis for the season, and rookie running back Michael Carter is still sidelined. That leaves the ineffective Tevin Coleman as New York’s starting running back. The Saints are one of the better defenses at stopping the run, which means the Jets will have to rely on their rookie quarterback to move the chains. Although fellow rookie, Elijah Moore, has emerged as one of the top receivers from this year’s draft class, shut-down cornerback Marshon Lattimore will likely shadow Moore wherever he goes on Sunday.
This could be a very long day for Gang Green. Lay the points and take the Saints on the road in Week 14. Both teams have really struggled to put up points recently, so I would also gravitate towards the under in this contest. The public seems to agree, as 66% of best on the over-under are siding with the under.
- Pick: Saints (-5.5)
- Bonus: Under 43 points
- Prediction: 24-16 Saints
New York Giants at Los Angeles Chargers (-10)
Despite the spread ballooning once it became clear that Mike Glennon would be starting for the injured Daniel Jones, we bet against the Giants last week and it paid off. This week, the G-Men have an even more formidable opponent in the Chargers, but with Jake Fromm set to make his first NFL start, it’s hard to envision the Giants doing much of anything on offense. With Glennon under center last week against the Dolphins, the Giants failed to score a touchdown. New York is incredibly banged up on both sides of the football and Saquon Barkley has yet to look like himself this season.
Meanwhile, the Chargers are coming off their most complete victory of the season after defeating the Cincinnati Bengals 41-22 last week. Although Austin Ekeler, Keenan Allen, Mike Williams, and Joey Bosa all appeared on the injury report, it appears that all four pivotal playmakers will suit up in Week 14. I don’t love the massive line in this game, but Justin Herbert should be able to cover the double-digit spread at home against an inferior opponent.
- Pick: Chargers (-10)
- Prediction: 30-16 Chargers
Top Week 14 Player Props
- Antonio Gibson over 66.5 rushing yards (-110)
- Taysom Hill over 51.5 rushing yards (-110)
- Josh Allen under 300.5 passing yards (-115)
- Trevor Lawrence under 216.5 passing yards (-110)
- Jared Goff over 20.5 completions (-110)
- Matt Ryan over 230.5 passing yards (+110)
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NFL Thursday Night Football Public Betting Trends Heading Into Week 14
Week 14 of the NFL season kicks off with the Minnesota Vikings hosting the Pittsburgh Steelers at U.S. Bank Stadium.
Both teams are in win-or-go-home mode, as each franchise is clinging onto a potential postseason appearance. The Steelers are coming off a pivotal upset victory over the Baltimore Ravens whereas the Minnesota Vikings were upset by the Detroit Lions. The Vikings are currently three-point favorites despite the absence of star wide receiver Adam Thielen.
Betting on the NFL makes the game more exciting among fans. Monitoring public betting trends is one of the most pivotal tools used by professional handicappers to find the top wagers in the sports betting marketplace. Public betting trends allow you to track which teams the public is chasing and which teams professional gamblers are high on each and every week. Whether you want to tail or fade the public, knowing the public betting trends (bet percentages and money percentages) is pivotal when determining which teams to back. So without further ado, let’s take a look at who the public likes in Week 13’s Thursday Night Football matchup, and where you should place your wagers.
Note: The lines and public betting trends are always changing so be sure to check out FantasySP for the latest odds and trends.
Pittsburgh Steelers at Minnesota Vikings (-3)
The playoff race in each conference has become very tight. Nothing is guaranteed aside from a few teams at the top of their respective conferences. After fending off the Ravens in Week 13, the Steelers are ranked eighth in the AFC. They are behind the Los Angeles Chargers, Cincinnati Bengals, and Buffalo Bills in the Wild Card race.
Ben Roethlisberger has taken a significant step back in his production this season, partially due to the several injuries and ailments he has had to endure. Big Ben is no longer the master of the deep ball and barely slinging it more than 20 yards. The Steelers are 21st in total offense. They have the 14th ranked passing offense and the 28th ranked run offense despite drafting rookie running back Najee Harris in the first round of the 2021 NFL Draft.
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After losing 29-27 to the winless Lions last week, the Vikings are in major need of a victory tonight, especially if Mike Zimmer wants to keep his job as head coach. Let’s not forget that the Steelers didn’t fare much better against the Lions earlier this season when they had countless opportunities to win, but finished the game with the first and only tie of the season.
The Vikings were missing star running back Dalvin Cook, but Alexander Mattison played well in his absence. Once Thielen went down, Kirk Cousins had no choice but to rely pretty much exclusively on All-Pro wideout Justin Jefferson. Jefferson did his job against the Lions, hauling in a season-high 11 receptions for 182 yards and a touchdown. Despite the second-year receiver’s phenomenal outing, it just wasn’t enough for the Vikings to escape Ford Field with a victory. Cousins completed 75% of his pass attempts for 340 yards and two touchdowns. It was the Vikings' defense that really let the team down. Minnesota’s secondary was in far too soft of a coverage formation on the last play of the game that allowed Jared Goff to throw an 11-yard strike to rookie Amon-Ra St. Brown for the game-winning score. Minnesota’s defense will have to improve if they have any shot at defeating the Steelers tonight.
The Vikings have played more one-possession games (11) than anyone in the NFL. All but one of their contests this season have been decided by one score. Minnesota is a bit of an enigma this season, almost impossible to predict. Fortunately for the Vikings, it appears Dalvin Cook will at least try to suit up for tonight’s pivotal matchup. Thielen will be out but Cook’s presence opens things up for the entire offense.
However, it’s difficult to back the Vikings when they are the favorites this season, especially when the spread is so minimal. Minnesota is 1-9 as favorites against the spread in their last 10 games while the Steelers are 7-3 as underdogs against the spread over their last 10 games. The public seems to be backing Minnesota, but this is a situation when I would fade the public. A whopping 68% of the money on spread bets is currently backing the Vikings. That’s why the spread has jumped back up to 3.5 points on some sportsbooks.
The only reason Minnesota is being favored is that they are the home team. Typically, Vegas oddsmakers automatically give the home team a 2.8-point advantage. If this game were to be played on neutral grounds, there probably wouldn’t even be a spread, as this would likely be a coin flip. Both the Steelers and Vikings rank similarly in many key categories.
Despite Cook’s potential return to the lineup, it’s hard to envision him being at full strength after the severity of the shoulder injury he suffered back in Week 12. Pittsburgh’s defense isn’t what it used to be, but T.J. Watt has been perhaps the best defensive player in the entire NFL this season. Something tells me that he and the rest of the Steelers’ defense will be ready to shut down Minnesota’s run-heavy approach. That will mean that Kirk Cousins will be forced to beat Pittsburgh’s secondary with Justin Jefferson, K.J. Osborn, and tight end Tyler Conklin. Expect Jefferson to be double-teamed with Thielen out of the lineup. The Steelers are going to force the Vikings to beat them with their least reliable playmakers.
All that said, I think the Vikings will continue to play very close games. Pittsburgh’s offense isn’t anything to write home about either. Big Ben is simply a shell of the quarterback he once was and is unable to hit his receivers on the deep ball, which is what Chase Claypool and Diontae Johnson are best at. However, the Vikings have allowed the fourth-most rushing yards this season, which means Pittsburgh will likely rely on Najee Harris to move the chains.
In a game that should be a low-scoring affair and come down to the wire, I like the Steelers on the road. They are flying high after knocking off their AFC North division rival from the top spot in the conference while the Vikings are in survival mode after suffering the worst upset of the season last week.
One of the biggest differences between these two teams is the head coaches that run the show. The Vikings lack synergy and rumors of Mike Zimmer’s potential firing can create a very uncomfortable atmosphere in the locker room. Mike Tomlin, however, runs a very tight ship and has the respect of all his players. The Steelers have never had a losing season in Tomlin’s 14-year tenure as Pittsburgh’s head coach. Many teams would have imploded following Pittsburgh’s tie with the Lions, but Tomlin did an excellent job at getting the Steelers back on track.
The Steelers should win this game because they are more effective on defense and are a bit healthier on offense. Minnesota also has a propensity to play down or up to their opponent’s level. The Vikings are a team that follows the pace of their opponent, rather than setting the tempo. Tomlin will get to determine how this game unfolds, and he will make sure that the game script plays to his roster’s strengths. The Steelers will run the ball a lot and use the play-action pass to move the chains. Pittsburgh will also put as much pressure on Kirk Cousins as he can handle. And while the Vikings are very difficult to predict in terms of how well they will play, their play calling is very easy to predict. Tomlin will make sure his defense dials in on Justin Jefferson and Dalvin Cook (if he indeed suits up).
Last week, Tomlin bested John Harbaugh, and called the Ravens’ two-point attempt at the very end of the game “predictable.” Something tells me he will have no problem taking advantage of the Vikings’ and Zimmer’s predictable nature as well.
Pick: Steelers (+3)
Prediction: 23-21 Steelers
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Welcome to our Week 13 edition of NFL Best Bets!
On the season, we are now 19-11 with our NFL Best Bets and are up +6 units. Not to mention, a bunch of our bonus picks hit so if you made parlays with the right selections, you could be up even more units. If you have been following our picks, you are likely making some serious cash this NFL season.
It’s finally December, the month of celebration, so let’s celebrate with some cash-money picks! December is usually the month when teams start to separate from the rest of the pack, however, the playoff spots in each conference are wide open this season. Week 13 presents some unique opportunities for certain franchises. The Patriots and Bills play on Monday Night Football in a battle for the top spot in the AFC East. Meanwhile, the Cincinnati Bengals can leapfrog to the top of the AFC North with a victory over the Los Angeles Chargers and a Baltimore Ravens loss to the Steelers. However, if Baltimore wins, they will strengthen their hold on the top seed in the AFC.
Week 13 kicked off with a matchup between two teams that were both trending in the wrong direction. The Dallas Cowboys (who had lost three of four games since Dak Prescott returned) traveled to Caesars Superdowm to take on the reeling New Orleans Saints (losers of four straight with Trevor Siemian under center with Jameis Winston out for the season). The spread opened at five points before it dropped to around four points when early money backed New Orleans in this pivotal matchup with tons of playoff implications. However, the spread jumped back up to 6.5 points when Alvin Kamara was announced as a late scratch. Taysom Hill was finally available to make his first start of the season, but New Orleans struggled all night on offense. They could not get Mark Ingram going in the running game, although Hill rushed for over 100 yards himself. Marshon Lattimore picked off Dak Prescott on the other side of the ball and New Orleans only trailed by three points until Tony Pollard ripped off a beautiful 58-yard touchdown run late in the third quarter to make the score 20-10. Then, defensive lineman, Carlos Watkins returned an interception off a deflected pass to the house to put the game out of reach. The Saints responded with a long touchdown to Deonte Harris, but it was too little, too late. Hill threw four interceptions (three in the final seven minutes of the game), which helped Dallas clinch the game and cover the spread. Dallas won 27-17 to take an even more dominating lead in the NFC East.
As the postseason picture begins to become more clear, it’s time to gear up for this week’s edition of NFL best bets. It takes a lot of energy and research to have success throughout a season when it comes to sports betting. Here at FantasySP, we are committed to helping you cash. Remember, if you win 55% of your bets, you are a really good gambler. We are looking at some eye-opening odds this week and will help you decipher the best games to place your money on, whether it’s moneylines, over-unders, or prop bets. With that, let’s dive in.
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WEEK 13 NFL BEST BETS
Arizona Cardinals at Chicago Bears (+7.5)
Coming off their bye week, the Cardinals will get top-tier signal-caller Kyler Murray back and although superstar wideout DeAndre Hopkins is questionable, I think he returns to action as well. Even if Hopkins is inactive, I still think Arizona has enough talent to defeat the Bears by double-digits. The Cardinals average 28.2 points per game while allowing the fourth-fewest points per game (18.4) and the sixth-fewest yards per play (5.3). Meanwhile, Chicago has per-game averages of just 16.3 points scored and 23.1 points allowed. Chicago will be without the services of Akiem Hicks, Danny Trevathan, and All-Pro pass rusher Khalil Mack. Something tells me that the Cardinals’ offense is going to have a field day on Sunday.
This season, the Cardinals have played six games on the road. They are 6-0 outright and 6-0 against the spread, defeating the spread by a whopping 18.6 points per contest. That’s simply insane! It’s still unclear whether Andy Dalton or Justin Fields will start under center for the Bears, but Chicago’s offense ranks a dreadful 29th in scoring and yards per play. Even with J.J. Watt out, the Cardinals’ defense has stopped opposing passing attacks all season. It’s hard to envision the Bears moving the ball effectively, especially with Allen Robinson most likely out. David Montgomery will need to be very elusive and effective in the running game for Chicago to have any shot at keeping this game close.
At the end of the day, I expect the Cardinals to have no trouble defeating a Bears team that needed a last-second field goal on Thanksgiving to defeat the winless Detroit Lions.
- Pick: Cardinals (-7.5)
- Bonus: Over 44
- Prediction: 30-17 Cardinals
Los Angeles Chargers at Cincinnati Bengals (-3)
Both of these teams are fighting for postseason life and this is looking like a high-scoring affair between two high-powered offenses. Although this game is being marketed as the Joe Burrow vs. Justin Herbert matchup, I think this game will be dominated by Joe Mixon. The Chargers allow the most rushing yards per game to opposing running backs this season and have allowed 140+ rushing yards in seven games this season. Mixon has been an absolute stud as of late with nine touchdowns in his last five games. He has eclipsed 100 yards in two straight games and is coming off a season-high 165-yard performance against the Pittsburgh Steelers. Mixon will see plenty of touches as Cincinnati will do whatever it takes to keep the ball out of Justin Herbert’s hands. And although the Bengals’ offense will likely run through Mixon, it’s not like this team lacks a prolific aerial attack. Burrow has progressed into one of the best quarterbacks in the NFL and has a top-five receiving core consisting of Ja’Marr Chase, Tee Higgins, Tyler Boyd, and tight end C.J. Uzomah.
The Chargers have a solid offense in their own right. Austin Ekeler is one of the best dual-threat backs in the NFL and the tandem of Keenan Allen and Mike Williams tends to make things difficult for opposing secondaries.
The Chargers beat the Bengals 16-13 in Week 1 of last season, but this is a very different Cincinnati team in 2021. Not to mention, the “smart money” is clearly backing the Bengals in Week 13. Although just 61% of spread bets are on the Bengals, 91% of the money is on Cincy. And despite just 19% of moneyline bets being on the Bengals, a ridiculous 98% of the money is backing Cincinnati outright. When studying the public betting trends, it appears that amateurs are betting on the Chargers to upset the Bengals while professional gamblers are backing Cincinnati. I’m going with the Vegas insiders on this one.
- Pick: Bengals (-3)
- Prediction: 31-27 Bengals
New York Giants at Miami Dolphins (-6)
Once quarterback Daniel Jones was ruled out of this game with a neck injury, the spread jumped from three points to 4.5 points and is now at six points. I already placed the bet on Miami when they were laying three points, but I would still take Miami despite the increased spread, especially with Sterling Shepard and Kadarius Toney looking doubtful. It’s hard to envision Mike Glennon leading this offense with just Kenny Golladay and Darius Slayton as his main targets, even with Saquon Barkley in the backfield. Although the Giants had a nice victory over the Philadelphia Eagles last week, they only managed 13 points on offense.
The Dolphins are riding a four-game win streak to get into Wild Card consideration with a 5-7 record. While it’s unlikely that they will actually make the postseason, this team is playing very well as of late. Miami has forced 10 turnovers during their win streak and should have no problem picking off Glennon at least twice, with Xavien Howard leading the way. Over their last three games, the Dolphins are only allowing 12.3 points per game and the offense has improved incrementally. Although Brian Flores’ crew was underwhelming against the Jets in Week 11, they bounced back in a big way last week against Cam Newton and the Carolina Panthers. Miami sacked Newton and P.J. Walker five times, forced three interceptions, and returned a pick for a touchdown.
The Dolphins seem to have finally figured out how to tailor their offense around Tua Tagovailoa. Tua has 503 passing yards, three touchdowns, and just one interception in his last two starts. Jaylen Waddle has developed into a true WR1, Mike Gesicki has been one of the top tight ends in the NFL this season, and even running back Myles Gaskin has started to perform as a true workhorse back with three touchdowns in his last two outings.
The Giants’ defense is a bit better than people give them credit for, but I just can’t imagine Mike Glennon keeping this a one-possession game. While I don’t anticipate the Dolphins scoring many points, the Giants will struggle to even produce double digits against a Dolphins defense that is red-hot. Keep riding the wave and back the Dolphins. Sometimes it’s smart to make a contrarian bet against the public. In this case, fading the public would be a massive mistake.
- Pick: Dolphins (-6)
- Prediction: 20-10 Dolphins
Minnesota Vikings at Detroit Lions (+7.5)
In a battle between two of the worst run defenses in the NFL, both teams will be starting their backup running backs due to injuries to D’Andre Swift and Dalvin Cook in Week 12. The Vikings have played more one-possession games (10) than any team in the NFL. Whenever Minnesota is favored by more than a touchdown, my general rule of thumb is to take the opposing team. Detroit lost a 19-17 heartbreaker to the Vikings the last time these two teams met, and although I’m not suggesting that the Lions will defeat Minnesota at Ford Field, I do think Detroit has enough in the tank to cover the spread.
The Lions are 6-4 as underdogs against the spread in their last 10 games while the Vikings are 2-8 against the spread as favorites over that same span. With Swift out of the lineup, I’m anticipating Jamaal Williams to dominate Minnesota’s defensive line. Jared Goff is also coming off one of his best performances of the season and has re-established the chemistry that he had previously built with Josh Reynolds back when they were both members of the Rams. Goff will also get T.J. Hockenson more involved in the passing game, and I’m boldly predicting that rookie Amon-Ra St. Brown scores his first touchdown of the season.
All that said, I still think the Lions will exit Week 13 winless, but due to their ability to play teams close until late in the fourth quarter, I expect Detroit to cover. Take the points. If you want to do a same-game parlay, consider taking the under as well, as both teams’ most electric playmakers will be sidelined (Swift and Cook).
- Pick: Lions (+7.5)
- Bonus: Under 46.5
- Prediction: 20-16 Vikings
Washington Football Team at Las Vegas Raiders (-1.5)
The Raiders are coming off a pivotal 36-33 overtime victory over the Dallas Cowboys on Thanksgiving. If they can beat Dallas, they should be able to dismantle Washington in a home game that would keep their postseason hopes alive. The Raiders snapped a three-game losing streak and Derek Carr balled out despite losing Darren Waller in the first half. Fortunately, DeSean Jackson proved that he is capable of filling in the role that Henry Ruggs left vacant. D-Jax hauled in 102 yards and a long touchdown, proving he still has plenty left in the tank and that he can stretch the field with his speed. Carr will need Jackson to build off that performance with Waller ruled out in Week 13. The veteran speedster who spent time with both the Eagles and Washington has crushed Washington in past performances. Jackson has tallied 44 receptions for 817 yards and seven touchdowns in his last 12 matchups against Washington. I’m anticipating another long touchdown pass to D-Jax to get this game rolling.
The Raiders average the second-most passing yards per game (295.6) and face a Washington defense without Chase Young that allows the third-most passing yards per game (266.6). Although Washington’s defense has played better over their recent three-game winning streak, Carr is going to light it up on Sunday. Hunter Renfrow had his best performance of the season in Week 12 when he produced eight receptions for 134 yards. In his last five games, Renfrow has caught 33 balls for 227 yards and two touchdowns. Renfrow has come into his own down the stretch, especially with Bryan Edwards still struggling to provide consistent numbers.
Although I think Washington will shut down Josh Jacobs and Vegas’ rushing attack, Derek Carr and the Raiders’ passing game will be too much for Washington, especially with All-Pro safety Landon Collins inactive. D-Jax and Renfrow will both eclipse 100 yards in this contest. I’m expecting Washington to fall behind quickly, and the absence of pass-catching running back J.D. McKissic could prove costly. Taylor Heinicke will get an opportunity in the final minutes to lead Washington to victory but will fall short.
- Pick: Raiders (-1.5)
- Prediction: 30-24 Raiders
Week 13 NFL Top Props
Jared Goff over 0.5 interceptions (-121)
Goff is coming off one of his best games of the season and hasn't thrown an interception in any of his previous three starts. However, Detroit's opponents had horrendous passing defenses whereas he faces a Vikings secondary that has forced at least one interception in six of their last seven games. Without D'Andre Swift in the lineup, Goff will likely have to air the ball out a bit more often than the Lions would like. That should result in at least one pick.
George Kittle over 56.5 receiving yards (-115)
With Deebo Samuel inactive, Jimmy G is going to have to rely on Kittle and Brandon Aiyuk to move the chains. As much as the 49ers commit to their running game, I wouldn't be surprised if Seattle stacks the box to force Garroppolo to throw the ball. Kittle should easily eclipse 57 yards, though I'm expecting closer to 90.
Derek Carr over 267.5 passing yards (-115)
As we touched on in the Raiders-Washington matchup blurb, Carr and the Raiders throw for the second-most yards in the league and face a generous Washington secondary missing Landon Collins that surrenders the third-most passing yards per game in the NFL. Considering this game is expected to be very close, the Raiders won't be able to hand the ball off late in the game to burn seconds off the clock. The Raiders will be throwing the ball late into the fourth quarter. I wouldn't be surprised if Carr threw for 300+ yards.
Other Week 13 NFL Props To Consider
- Mac Jones over 210.5 passing yards (-110)
- Mike Glennon under 210.5 passing yards (+105)
- Kenny Golladay over 37.5 receiving yards (-115)
- Darnell Mooney over 49.5 receiving yards (-115)
- Najee Harris over 55.5 rushing yards (-114)
- Clyde Edwards-Helaire under 60.5 rushing yards (-115)
- Ja'Marr Chase over 5.5 receptions (+130)
- Brandon Aiyuk over 4.5 receptions (-160)
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