Even though Thanksgiving is going to look different around the country this year, at least we still have the NFL to give us a small semblance of normalcy.
The first two games of the day might leave a little to be desired since they feature four teams with losing records, but at least the nightcap should give us a hotly contested rivalry that always finds ways to deliver.
Houston Texans (-3) v. Detroit Lions - 12:30 PM EST - CBS
Houston enters Thursday's game having won two of their last three games. Last week the Texans beat the New England Patriots 27-20, giving Houston their first win this year against a team other than the Jacksonville Jaguars. Deshaun Watson passed for 344 yards and two touchdowns against the Patriots, giving Watson his fifth 300-yard passing game of the season. What Watson has been doing well lately for Houston is taking care of the football, as he hasn't thrown an interception in five straight games.
Since staging a fourth quarter comeback against the Atlanta Falcons, Detroit hasn't seen much go right. The Lions have lost three of four games, and they are dealing with injuries to many of their key players on the offensive side of the football. D'Andre Swift, Kenny Golladay, and Danny Amendola all missed last week's 20-0 loss to the Carolina Panthers. If that wasn't tough enough to swallow, Matthew Stafford is playing with an injured thumb, while T.J. Hockenson was a limited participant in practice earlier this week because of a shoulder injury.
These two teams are trending in opposite directions. Houston looks to have found some rhythm after firing head coach Bill O'Brien, while Detroit is limping towards the finish line in what could be Matt Patricia's final season with the Lions. Normally I'd have a little more faith in Detroit to show up on Thanksgiving, but the Lions are just too banged up right now. After seeing what Carolina was able to do without Teddy Bridgewater and Christian McCaffrey, Watson and the Houston offense shouldn't have trouble moving the football on Detroit.
Houston 28, Detroit 17
Washington Football Team v. Dallas Cowboys (-3) - 4:30 PM EST - FOX
Both Washington and Dallas have seen their quarterbacks suffer brutal injuries this year. Dak Prescott was lost for the season when he was injured in the first half of a 37-34 Dallas win over the New York Giants. The Cowboys had lost four straight games prior to Sunday's 31-28 win over the Minnesota Vikings. The offense of the Cowboys looked much improved with Andy Dalton back at quarterback after Dalton missed the previous two games for the Cowboys. Ezekiel Elliott had his best game of the season against the Vikings, notching his first 100-yard rushing game of the year.
One of the best stories of the NFL season has been the return of Alex Smith to the field. After Dwayne Haskins was benched, Washington named Kyle Allen their starting quarterback, but the Allen experiment didn't last two long, as the Texas A&M product suffered a gruesome leg injury against the Giants. Smith at least can give Washington some veteran stability at quarterback as the team tries to figure out what the future of the position will hold for the team.
Even though Washington did win on Sunday, they did so against a Cincinnati team that was dealing with the loss of Joe Burrow in the third quarter. Not only is Dallas getting healthier and improving on defense, the offense of the Cowboys is starting to find a little rhythm. Dalton and Dallas are able to get a little revenge on a Washington team that knocked Dalton out of the game in last month's 25-3 win by the Football Team.
Dallas 31, Washington 21
Baltimore Ravens v. Pittsburgh Steelers (-4.5) - Sunday 11/29
On Wednesday afternoon the NFL decided to move Thursday night's Baltimore-Pittsburgh game to Sunday because of a number of positive COVID-19 tests within the Baltimore organization.
How quickly the Ravens have fallen. After looking like one of the favorites in the AFC, Baltimore has lost three of four games, falling to third place in the AFC North. As if that wasn't enough to deal with, it looks like the Ravens are dealing with a COVID-19 outbreak. Overall Baltimore has had four players and five staffers test positive, with the biggest names of the group being running backs Mark Ingram and J.K. Dobbins.
Compared to the Ravens, Pittsburgh has to feel like they are on easy street. After narrowly defeating Dallas a few weeks ago, the Steelers took care of business against Cincinnati and Jacksonville the last two weeks. Pittsburgh is still struggling to find a running game, but that hasn't been much of a problem with Ben Roethlisberger finding Diontae Johnson and Chase Claypool through the air.
How shorthanded is Baltimore going to be for this game? We might not know until close to kickoff. Even if the list of players held out for the game doesn't grow, the Ravens are going to have a really tough time running the football, which will put even more pressure on Lamar Jackson, who has been less than impressive recently. Pittsburgh is just playing too well right now to consider back a Baltimore team on the road that is dealing with a lot on and off the field.
Pittsburgh 34, Baltimore 23
Each Friday, FindBet will preview the week's DFS slate, highlighting players that are priced well on FanDuel, as well as some contrarian plays that can push your team to the top of the leader board.
Most NFL FanDuel games have you putting a team together with players from a certain slate of games. It could be just Sunday 1:00 PM games or it could be every game that is slated for the week.
Once the last game that has eligible players is over, the final payouts are made according to how many fantasy points each team scored. Each player is worth a certain dollar amount, and you have a cap of $60,000 to build your team with. You have to have 1 QB, 2 RB, 3 WR, 1 TE, 1 FLEX (RB, WR, or TE) and 1 DEF.
The general scoring rules include (6) points for each rushing and receiving touchdown, (4) points for each passing touchdown, (0.1) points for each rushing and receiving yard gained, (0.04) points for each passing yard, and also (0.5) points for each reception. There are other scoring opportunities for defenses. You can see the entire breakdown on FanDuel. Let's take a look at players we like this week.
Players to Target:
Justin Herbert (QB) - $8500
Herbert gets the lowly Jets this week and he's shown he can hang points against better defenses earlier in the season. He's an under the radar DFS play this week.
Nick Chubb (RB) - $8100
Chubb returned to action last week and showed why he is still one of the best RBs in the league against the Texans. He had over 100 yards and a TD, and could've had a bigger day if he hadn't stopped short of the endzone on a long run in the 4th quarter. Cleveland gets the Eagles this week.
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Le'Veon Bell (RB) - $5500
This is a bit of a risky play and requires you to follow Clyde Edwards-Heliare's health as the week continues to unfold. If CEH is out with an illness for Sunday's game against the Raiders, Bell could have a monster day for a massively discounted price.
Justin Jefferson (WR) - $6700
Jefferson continues to be one of the most electric rookie WRs in the NFL this year. The Vikings get the Dallas Cowboys terrible defense this week. Jefferson should continue to produce in Week 11.
JuJu Smith Schuster (WR) - $6500
Are we witnessing a JuJu rejuvenation in Pittsburgh? He's had 60+ yards and a TD the last two weeks. The Steelers get the Jaguars this week and Smith-Schuster has the chance to continue to produce.
Tyreek Hill (WR) - $8500
Hill gets a Raiders defense that may be playing with all 2nd and 3rd string players this week due to Covid-19 exposures. Even with the Raiders starting defense on the field, he still has a great matchup.
Jared Cook (TE) - $6100
Cook has been a disappointment for fantasy and DFS players this year. Drew Brees is sidelined for at least 2 weeks with rib injuries. Jameis Winston takes over as the starter and he has always targeted TEs in the pass game in his time in Tampa Bay. Cook is a high risk, high ceiling play this week.
JD McKissic (RB) - $5600
McKissic had 15(!) targets last week in the pass game from Alex Smith. With Fanduel's scoring settings, he is a god play this week if he continues to get that volume in the passing game.
After 29 targets the last two weeks, JD McKissic now averaging more targets per game (6.8) than Robert Woods, Will… https://t.co/VRLeTe1BHQ— Adam Levitan (@Adam Levitan) 1605536579.0
Los Angeles Chargers (DEF) - $4500
We love to beat up on the Jets here in this DFS blog, and that tune won't change this week as the Chargers get a Joe Flacco led Jets team for another week.
FindBet Free Play for Week 11:
Here's a team you can put right into any of your contests, just remember to buy us a beer when you win big!
For about half the day, things were really looking up.
Week 9 Vibe Check (2-2) - Nailing that the Ravens were going to go into Indy and pull a win out at all costs and them delivering felt absolutely tremendous. I saw them at -1 earlier in the week, but by game time they were +1 at some books and I sincerely hope you got to bet an underdog Ravens team.
Going into the afternoon, something became apparent almost immediately: the Steelers were not covering 14 points. The Cowboys' fourth QB of the season, Garrett Gilbert, proved move effectively than the last two, combined. Not to mention, Big Ben was dealing with an injury most of the game. Here's a live look at his recovery now:
Ben Roethlisberger, feeling great, leaves the practice field three years ago.Jeremy Fowler/ESPN
Davante Parker laid out his case as Tua's top target and easily put up over 4.5 catches. Meanwhile, I need to start following my own advice or, at least, hold a negotiation with whatever deity the Chargers angered.
Seahawks +2.5 over Rams
This line feels a little too reactionary for my tastes. Sure, the Seahawks got run off the field in Buffalo, but that was bound to happen. It was a cross country road game against a passing heavy team a week after blowing out their division rival. The thing everyone's forgetting is how bad the Rams looked pre-bye. Short term memory is important to play sports, but not to bet on them. Russell Wilson has been aerial maestro this season and I'll take him with points over Jared Goff any day of the week and twice this Sunday.
Bengals +7.5 over Steelers
Right before kick off last week, my cousin inquired "-3.5 in the first quarter or -7.5 in the half for the Steelers?" Thinking, hey this Dallas team looks hardly competent enough to tie their own shoelaces, I cracked, "Why not both?" We very quickly learned why not. Even before Ben's injury, his ability to throw the deep ball has diminished in a flash. One of the league's top gunslingers has only completed 31% of his passes beyond 15 yards and gone 1 of 12 in the past two games. While the Pittsburgh D has occupied rarified air, Ben can't quite get as much under his passes as he once could. This seems to have stalled the offense, at times, even with his full assortment of weapons. On the other side, Joe Burrow has consistently looked like the QB of the future that we were all promised. He's kept Cincinnati in just about every ballgame, losing two out of the last three on last second comebacks and beating Tennessee a week ago. Give the young man a touchdown and I'm willing to ride with him.
Dolphins -1.5 over Chargers
We are trying this again, folks! Let's bet against the Chargers for a change and try to win some money. Miami come out ahead in two games against better, non-cursed teams since the Tua takeover, and their sturdy pass D has only gotten better, too. In fact, they're uniquely positioned to handle Herbert's deep ball prowess and LA's backfield is currently undermanned, limiting their ability to attack the most exploitable part of Miami's defense.
@Tua has been making plays and showing why the @MiamiDolphins took him with the 5th pick overall in the draft.… https://t.co/N4i2JmVJWb— NFL Matchup on ESPN (@NFL Matchup on ESPN) 1605315601.0
Brandon Aiyuk over 4.5 Recs
The Niners will now be without every starting skill position player except for Kendrick Bourne from last season year's battle royale in the Superdome, so... Improvement, I guess? One guy who'll be on the field that they didn't have last season or last week will be the burgeoning YAC monster, Aiyuk. After missing Thursday night's Packer beatdown due close contact to Bourne, who appears to have been a COVID false positive, the Niners will be able to implement a game plan built around their rookie receiving sensation.
That's apparently what Shanahan had done before having to pivot his schemes to 5th stringer, Richie James, who promptly had the game of his life, racking up 9 catches and 184 yards. Between Aiyuk's speed making him an even more potent deep threat than James, he's also more likely to be involved in the "run game," meaning little tap passes on jet sweeps that allow him to explode around the edge and into space. If he gets even two of those looks, he's just under halfway home.
Last week's slate proved absolutely brutal, featuring upsets galore, bad beats aplenty, and odd play every which way.
Week 8 Vibe Check (2-3) - I was NOT prepared to live in a world where not only did the Chargers and Rams NOT cover, they lost outright. I circle back to my original theory that the Bolts must've been cursed to a never ending stream of competitive football seasons with no meaningful wins. Herbert's already starting to look a lot like Philip Rivers, a competent, even top tier QB, destined to mediocrity.
The Rams probably regret making Jared Goff the third highest paid player in the NFL after that loss. Can't even blame the time zone shenanigans, since McVay and co. have had no issues going east during his tenure.
As for our wins, Philip Rivers moved from Southern California (to a non-cursed team) and, suddenly, things are looking up. The Colts' line was so good that Jordan Wilkins went off against the Lions, frustrating Jonathan Taylor's fantasy owners, but delighting his teammates.
As for Mahomes going over 2.5 TDs, he basically had that wrapped in the first quarter. A win there was almost as easy as taking the Packers -7 on Thursday night against the 49ers, who had one eligible receiver on the roster due to COVID protocols and not a single skill player on the field from when these two teams last met in the NFC Championship game, a mere 292 days ago.
Let's see if we can find any matchups as ripe for the picking as those…
Ravens -1 over Colts
The Colts have started to surge on both sides of the ball based around their strength in the running game. They excel at both pounding the rock and stopping it in equal measure, but to be clear, they haven't faced a team as adept and inventive in their rushing attack.
Lamar looked very un-Lamar-like last week, but the Steelers D can do that to anyone and even with his four turnovers, the Ravens held the lead for a good chunk of the game and had two chances to win at the end. They are clearly undervalued coming into this week and the Colts appear to be overvalued, so this is the exact moment to take advantage and go big on the more talented and better coached team with a transcendent player at QB.
Expect the return of this Lamar Jackson this week against the Colts. Nick Wass/AP Photo
Steelers -14 over Cowboys
I would normally never recommend taking a team favored by this much, even the Chiefs last week against the Jets at 19.5 just felt a little too ridiculous, but I'll give a two touchdown head start to this Cowboy team any day. In a post-Dak world, it's become clear just how hapless Mike McCarthy looks coaching offenses in today's NFL and Mike Nolan's D matches it blow for blow. As a fan, it must be a little like Tabasco to the eye. The Steelers pass rush might account for more sacks than first downs in this one.
lololol Mike McCarthy’s deep research https://t.co/XWNPUNRBBZ— Warren Sharp (@Warren Sharp) 1603643931.0
DeVante Parker over 4.5 Receptions
The Dolphins' offense went from surprisingly fun to dull in record time under the new reign of Tua. The team went run heavy against the Rams to support their rookie signal caller. Not to mention, they didn't need to do much more after Goff imploded into himself like a dying sun.
Excluding last week, Parker has quietly shown flashes of dominance this year, and against a just barely above average Cardinals D, he might be able to show out even more. Sure, he'll be matched up with Patrick Peterson, but the former superstar has looked less impressive with age.
He's allowed catches on over 55% of targets his way, two statistical categories that he no longer ranks in the top 30 of for cornerbacks. Miami will need to establish their offense in what could either be a shootout or blowout, either way they'll need to put the ball in the air.
Congrats on ya first td bro. Many more to come🤞🏾💯 https://t.co/pnl9VBBM6s— DeVante Parker (@DeVante Parker) 1604278701.0
Los Angeles Chargers Pick'Em over Las Vegas Raiders
Let me throw out going against Jon Gruden's Raiders, who've alternated between proficiency and problematic in equal measure. Coming off the NFL punishing them with fines and lost draft picks for repeatedly ignoring COVID protocols, they'll be without Josh Jacobs, Jonathan Abrams, Trent Brown, and five other players to face the deeply unlucky Chargers. This feels like a great chance for Justin Herbert to take advantage and lead his team to a much deserved win.