After an up and down 2020 regular season, it turns out we saved one of our best weeks for last.
The Packers and Bills well exceeded expectations, completely dismantling their possible playoff opponents in the final week. Tough break for the Dolphins, they didn't have the luxury of backing in the way Chicago did.
Surprisingly, the biggest blowout came from Derrick Henry, who managed to double his over/under number against a busted Texans' D, win back-to-back rushing titles, and become the eight man in NFL history to crack 2,000 yards.
All that being said, you'd think the Titans ran away with this one, but their own malfunctioning defense kept Deshaun Watson in the game to the very last second. It took a ricochet off an upright to seal the deal in regulation, signaling a shorter playoff stay for this year's Titans.
Pittsburgh Steelers -6 over Cleveland Browns
This one doesn't even seem fair. The Steelers bring the most pressure in the NFL, and have two of the most effective pass rushers in the league between T.J. Watt and Stephen Tuitt, who're beating their man at 29% and 13% of the time, respectively. Meanwhile, Baker Mayfield has always folded under pressure, and it's only gotten worse this year. The man might be able to act his way through any commercial thrown his way, but standing in behind his offensive line has proven more difficult than being in front of the camera. The Steelers offense seems to have righted the ship in the final weeks, Ben just needing to get the ball out to his playmakers to look halfway decent. This all goes without saying, the Browns are currently being ravaged by COVID, preventing practices all week, and knocking out a chunk of the coaching staff, which includes Kevin Stefanski. He's the man who took this team from lost on offense to the playoffs in one season by actually maximizing the team's strengths. Without him at the helm, I wouldn't trust Baker and co. to handle this one on their own.
Ravens -3 over Titans
In what seems to be a budding rivalry, the Titans and Ravens will square off in a rematch of last year's divisional round game that concluded with Baltimore looking positively pedestrian. That loss robbed us of the Chiefs/Ravens and Mahomes/Jackson showdown in the championship game that everyone wanted, especially in Lamar's breakout MVP season. This year, the tables have turned and the Ravens will be visiting the division-winning Titans, but it feels like even more of a lock that Baltimore will prevail. Tennessee's defense has left plenty to be desired (see: Texans, Houston) and their offensive line isn't the same group of hogmollies who bulldozed their way through the 2019 playoffs. If you have a hard time containing Deshaun Watson, I'd hate to be in the film room prepping for this opponent. Since his fourth quarter resurrection against the aptly-named Browns, Lamar has looked like his transcendent self. One of the Titans biggest weaknesses, their red zone defense, which allowed 69% of drives that get within the 20 to end in a touchdown, plays to Lamar's biggest strengths. He's responsible for a whopping 46 TDs in the red zone and not a single interception. That alone should be enough to allow them to skate into the next round.
LaMAr jAcKSoN cAn’T ThrOW https://t.co/Xh3bx3nefB— Sarah Ellison (@Sarah Ellison) 1609698594.0
Stefon Diggs over 7.5 Receptions
When the Bills traded for Diggs this offseason, you have to imagine they would've settled for two thirds of the production the vet receiver has given them. The idea of him leading the league in both catches and yards must have been so beyond their wildest dreams, it wouldn't even have made the vision board. But that's exactly what he did, unlocking Josh Allen and the Bills offense in the process. Now 7.5 feels high, but it's a number he's hit in six of the final eight games of the season, and the last week of the season he got to seven before being pulled from the blowout. The Bills have managed to smoke teams with their offense, refusing to take their foot off the pedal, which they might have to do against a Colts team that can hang offensively with Phil Rivers and shut down the run game with Deforest Buckner. It's safe to say that Diggs is going to be a busy man, if the Bills want to win. Most importantly, the man cares about his dental health.
LMAOOOOO https://t.co/okooFHd4Q7— Warren Sharp (@Warren Sharp) 1609700166.0
Seahawks/Rams under 42.5
Best case scenario for the Ram? Jared Goff, fresh from the operating table, will return as their wildly up-and-down starting quarterback. Worst case scenario? John Wolford, he of AAF success and one career start, will be leading the charge against a blossoming Seattle D. They've managed to improve at historic levels, allowing 47% less points per game in the back half of the season. Jamal Adams has invigorated the defense, and I'd bet on him eating the lunch of whatever starter McVay has to throw out there. On the flip side, the Los Angeles Rams have the number one ranked defense in the NFL, powered by the fiercest player and most innovative coordinator in the league. They are equally prepared to shutdown the pass and run game, not giving up 100 yards to a running back or 300 yards to a QB, excepting Josh Allen, all season long. In previous matchups against Seattle, the Rams allowed 16 points in a victory and 20 points in a loss, allowing a combined 625 yards and 35 first downs.
The Browns losing to the Jets, even without all of their starting wide receivers, seems like something from an alternate reality.
Sure, if I'd heard that before writing this column, I wouldn't have taken them -9.5, but laying that big of an egg with the team's first playoff berth in 17 years is mind boggling.
Back in this dimension, the Washington Football Team was relying on Dwayne Haskins, which in turn, means we were relying on Dwayne Haskins. If you haven't heard, he isn't on the team anymore, so that pretty much sums up the betting-on-Dwayne-Haskins experience.
Lastly, the Colts looked like the easiest money anyone could've made on Sunday. In the early morning hours, before kickoff, they had moved to +1 underdogs. For nearly three quarters of football, they made everyone look ridiculous for believing that Pittsburgh could pull out of their recent tailspin. Suddenly, the Indianapolis offense sputtered, producing nothing of value, while the Steelers soared behind the arm of Big Ben, clinching the AFC North title. It was a little like watching a train wreck in slow motion.
As for our win, Jalen Hurts easily surpassed his 232.5 passing yards against the weak Dallas D. Thank the man for keeping us from winless.
Green Bay Packers -4.5 over Chicago Bears
Aaron Rodgers and the Packers will be playing for a lot this Sunday. The veteran QB has a third MVP award on the line, while Green Bay needs a win to lock up a first round bye and home field advantage for the postseason. Resting players is a luxury only the AFC can afford, as there's still a lot of possible permutations that the NFC playoff picture can take on this year, including a possible entry by the Bears, who technically control their own destiny.
However, when facing Rodgers with high stakes, who really controls who's destiny. The man is 20-5 in games against Chicago for his career, and the Pack absolutely trounced this Bears team only a little over a month ago. Obviously, the Bears and Mitchell Trubisky have looked better than they did during the six game slump midseason, but there's just too much on the line for a team that's so talented for this one to be close.
Classic combo of @AaronRodgers12 & @tae15adams. 💪 TOUCHDOWN! #TENvsGB | #GoPackGo 📺 NBC Watch live 📱… https://t.co/nbvb9sMAkQ— Green Bay Packers (@Green Bay Packers) 1609121495.0
Buffalo Bills -1.5 over Miami Dolphins
Josh Allen has officially elevated himself to the top tier of NFL QB this season. There were times when it seemed unlikely or impossible that he would reach this final form, having taken on the status of punchline after one of the wilder wild card games ever. The Bills will secure the number two seed in the playoffs with a win or a Steelers loss, which should become reality with Pittsburgh sitting Big Ben against Cleveland.
However, not content to wait out the season, Allen will be playing for positioning and a possible stab at the MVP conversation. On the flip side, the Dolphins need a win to get in, but with Tua under center, the offense hasn't looked as dynamic, leading to him being pulled in favor of Ryan Fitzpatrick for the final five minutes of the barn burning finish in Las Vegas last Saturday night.
Going forward that won't be a sustainable strategy in the NFL for a number of reasons, but the most pressing is that Fitzpatrick has been added to the COVID list and will be unavailable in relief. A dink and dunk Dolphins offense won't be able to keep up with the run and gun Bills this time.
Couple @SportsCenter notes from AM #WashingtonFootball remains optimistic Alex Smith starts vs #Eagles. Will make… https://t.co/Hmg3uV1Gk3— Jeremy Fowler (@Jeremy Fowler) 1609615175.0
For any other human man, setting an over/under at that number of rushing yards in a game would feel ludicrous. However, we aren't talking about any man. We are talking about the man who's about to wrap up his second straight rushing title. The man who's 223 yards away from 2,000 on the season. A man who's gone for over 200 yards twice against the very opponent he's about to face, including a performance last year to lock up said rushing title.
If there were ever an opponent that would make finishing with this many yards seem possible, it's the Texans. They have the 31st ranked rushing defense in the league, their offense has been stagnant, and unnamed players have seemed to have given up. If Henry seems anywhere close as the game begins to wind down, how could Vrabel not lean on his horse and let the King make history.
Derrick Henry clinches the 2019 NFL Rushing Title AND a 1,500 yard season with this INCREDIBLE run! https://t.co/HTm9aMcMnw— NFLonCBS (@NFLonCBS) 1577664593.0
Tennessee Titans -7.5 over Houston Texans
For all the reasons above, I will be riding with the Titans to demolish this floundering Texan team. The Titans can win the AFC South with a win, and though they were outclassed in Green Bay, this team's offense has been impressively efficient behind the rock steady Ryan Tannehill. It's hard to imagine a world in which they're slowed down by this defense or matched by this hobbled offense.
We were robbed of a 3-1 week by another backdoor push by a NFC South team against the Chiefs, who had long since taken their foot off the gas.
Week 15 Vibe Check (2-1-1) - Neither the Saints nor the Bucs were ever in those games, but they did exactly enough in garbage time to send us to gambling purgatory.
Meanwhile, the Vikings effectively drove a knife through their season and all my parlays by letting the Bears run roughshod over them. Who knew the depths that they could fall to against the Saints? Can't imagine that it was a happy flight back home for the holidays.
As for our wins, let's praise the Dolphins for handling their business against division rivals/former tormentors. The Patriots have a way of hanging around in games that they have no business hanging around in and Miami might as well have nailed up a "No Loitering" sign. Out in the Arizona desert, we got a shootout worthy of Tombstone to secure the over. The emergence of Jalen Hurts was a Hail Mary that might save Doug Pederson's future in Philly and my fantasy team from finishing in the bottom half of the league.
Cleveland Browns -9.5 over New York Jets
J!-E!-T!-S! JETS! JETS! JETS! Only the Jets can win and still somehow lose (the opportunity to draft a clear generational talent at QB), but don't tell Sam Darnold or Frank Gore. They deserve better than to go winless under the most ass backwards coaching staff in the league. Shocking the world got the Jets some Rodney Dangerfield treatment around here, garnering a little too much respect, if you ask me.
The Browns took care of business against the New York Giants last week and their prolonged trip to the Big Apple should bring similar results this Sunday. The Jets are coming off their Super Bowl, so a letdown is inevitable and the Browns' offense has been clicking on all cylinders with their two-headed monster at running back. Look for those guys to run wild.
Sam Darnold eludes pressure in the Jets first victory of the season.Icon Sportswire
Washington Football Team -1 over Carolina Panthers
The Washington Football Team have made me a believer. Riverboat Ron took a basement dweller and transformed them into a division-leading contender, well before anyone could've anticipated. Sure, that division is the NFC Least, I mean, East, but if Alex Smith has been quarterbacking/game-managing this whole season, they could be a .500 team.
Earlier this season, I was out there dying on the Panthers' hill, but it's clear they are a year (and a more dynamic QB) away from truly competing. At this point, they're locked into a top ten draft pick, while the Football Team has a playoff berth to play for. That alone should be enough for Washington to take this one.
Indianapolis Colts +1 over Pittsburgh Steelers
The Pittsburgh Steelers appear to have hit a wall, then hit that wall again, then hit the same wall a third time. Ben Roethlisberger can't sling it like he used to and his wide receivers are either TikToking or dropping balls. Unfortunately, their defense can only do so much, and due to some costly injuries they aren't in the tip top shape that carried them to 11-0.
Meanwhile, the Colts have come into their own down the stretch, stonewalling teams with stout defense and playing more efficiently on offense since TY Hilton's reemergence. The Colts getting a point in this game essentially makes this a pick 'em, but you've got to love getting a little something to possibly preserve the possibility of a push.
This tweet tells the story of Big Ben's season and the fate of the Steelers hopes for a Super Bowl.
Sorry for spamming the timeline but getting a lot of requests for these. I really should just make an app for this.… https://t.co/P4SYmDR4CW— Computer Cowboy (@Computer Cowboy) 1608666117.0
Jalen Hurts over 232.5 Passing Yards
In two starts, Jalen Hurts has thrown a combined 505 yards. Of course, it was 167 against the Saints and 338 against the Cardinals in a historic effort. That's some real variance, but I think it is safe to say the Cowboys' D is worse than Arizona and New Orleans. That doesn't mean Hurts will put up 400 yards, but if we saw anything last week, it's that Doug Pederson is not afraid to let his rookie QB fire away, taking deep shots all over the field. Even Nick Mullens and CJ Beathard combined for 300 yards through the air against Dallas and I think it's a safe bet Hurts will eclipse that number.
JALEN HURTS 😱 📺: #PHIvsAZ on FOX 📱: NFL app // Yahoo Sports app: https://t.co/4dWJuGxOxQ https://t.co/SvLF9AHTXL— NFL (@NFL) 1608510587.0
JALEN HURTS 😱 📺: #PHIvsAZ on FOX 📱: NFL app // Yahoo Sports app: https://t.co/4dWJuGxOxQ https://t.co/SvLF9AHTXL— NFL (@NFL) 1608510587.0
Week 14 (1-3) was not the best week for bettors, so let's get some wins to make up for it on Sunday.
The Colts handled their business in Las Vegas, like an air conditioning repairman in the desert heat. Meanwhile, the Raiders went on to lose their Thursday night game behind a competent Mariota performance, but seem to be melting down, like an ice cream cone in the desert heat. Keep that in mind for possible fade opportunities in the coming weeks.
As for our losses, it was an assortment of disappointments. The Taysom Hill Traveling Show seems to have come to an unceremonious end. Backups starting this late in the year have typically meant variance, so I wasn't so surprised by Jalen Hurts hurting my wallet.
The Chargers actually managed to beat the Falcons somehow. Even more amazing? It came down to the final seconds and Matt Ryan's line looked like this: 21/32, 224 yards, 1 TD, and 3 INTs. Even more amazing? Justin Herbert's line looked like this: 36/44. 243 yards, 2 TDs, and 1 INT. I really can't wrap my head around how they won this game and how Herbert could complete 36 passes WITHOUT him throwing over 281.5 yards. Another classic football mystery for the ages.
Lastly, the Steelers didn't even bother showing up to Buffalo. The drop parade continued for the Pittsburgh wide receivers and Josh Allen has mastered cutting up highly rated defenses.
Minnesota Vikings -3 over Chicago Bears
This is a week of overwhelming favorites, each with their own particular hook that should scare off any seasoned bettor. Tennessee -9, Tampa Bay -6.5, Indy -7.5, Seattle -6.5, Baltimore -13, LA Rams -17, Cleveland -6.5, and Pittsburgh -14.5? All too rich for my blood, sir. However, something like a passable Minnesota Vikings team, who easily handled the Chicago Bears on Monday night just over a month ago on the road. Justin Jefferson has been a revelation for the offense, filling the hole left by the Stefon Diggs trade, and joining some hallowed company in the record books. I'd look for him to go over 4.5 RECEPTIONS to power a nice win and cover.
Kansas City Chiefs -3 over New Orleans Saints
Earlier this week @AdamSchefter and I talked about Chiefs-Saints being a potential Super Bowl preview. It just got… https://t.co/LcgRKbUkLa— Evan Kaplan (@Evan Kaplan) 1608302832.0
Super Bowl preview? It's possible. The Chiefs feel undeniable in a way that's both terrifying and comforting. You know that they will score and score and score. The Saints have stayed afloat without Drew Brees for a few weeks, which all came to a head against a floundering Philly team, who got a shot of life in the form of Jalen Hurts. If they had a hard time containing or keeping up on offense against him, may I re-introduce you to Patrick Mahomes. Things have gotten more interesting given the announcement that Drew Brees, 11 broken ribs and collapsed lung, will return to his starting position. However, the football gods gave and take away in equal measure. Michael Thomas will be out and that offense seemed to suffer more without the 40 year old signal caller.
Miami Dolphins -1.5 over New England Patriots
This line starting at 2.5 and working it's way down to 1.5 is like manna from heaven. The Patriots have a few extra days to prepare after the Thursday night dismantling by the Rams and the Dolphins are coming off a game against the Chiefs that they kept much closer than they had any right to. (Breaking a few -11.5 and Chief win by 14+ points along the way.) The Miami D is for real, Xavien Howard is an interception machine, and Tua is a born leader. Belichick will find a way to make this a grind it out, ball control, and last possession wins kind of game, but I'm willing to bet the Dolphins kick that game winning field for the win.
Arizona Cardinals/Philadelphia Eagles over 49.5
Jalen Hurts tucks the ball to run, pointing for a block, against the Saints. JOE LAMBERTI/COURIER POST
The Cardinals and Eagles have not been known for their defenses this season, falling outside of the top 10. The Cardinals are 28th in points allowed, the Eagles are 27th in turnovers caused, and each struggles getting opposing offenses off the field. However, the Cardinals offense, powered by Kyler and DeAndre, has been averaging over 30 points a game at home. That feels like a pretty easy floor for them to hit with a much higher potential ceiling. That leaves the Eagles to pick up the slack for two, maybe, three scores, which feels very doable for the reinvigorated Philly team and their quarterback, who loves food analogies.