Alvin Kamara scored a record-tying six TDs, singlehandedly crushing the Vikings and ending many fantasy championship games
Cleveland Browns -9.5 over New York Jets
J!-E!-T!-S! JETS! JETS! JETS! Only the Jets can win and still somehow lose (the opportunity to draft a clear generational talent at QB), but don't tell Sam Darnold or Frank Gore. They deserve better than to go winless under the most ass backwards coaching staff in the league. Shocking the world got the Jets some Rodney Dangerfield treatment around here, garnering a little too much respect, if you ask me.
The Browns took care of business against the New York Giants last week and their prolonged trip to the Big Apple should bring similar results this Sunday. The Jets are coming off their Super Bowl, so a letdown is inevitable and the Browns' offense has been clicking on all cylinders with their two-headed monster at running back. Look for those guys to run wild.
Sam Darnold eludes pressure in the Jets first victory of the season.Icon Sportswire
Washington Football Team -1 over Carolina Panthers
The Washington Football Team have made me a believer. Riverboat Ron took a basement dweller and transformed them into a division-leading contender, well before anyone could've anticipated. Sure, that division is the NFC Least, I mean, East, but if Alex Smith has been quarterbacking/game-managing this whole season, they could be a .500 team.
Earlier this season, I was out there dying on the Panthers' hill, but it's clear they are a year (and a more dynamic QB) away from truly competing. At this point, they're locked into a top ten draft pick, while the Football Team has a playoff berth to play for. That alone should be enough for Washington to take this one.
Indianapolis Colts +1 over Pittsburgh Steelers
The Pittsburgh Steelers appear to have hit a wall, then hit that wall again, then hit the same wall a third time. Ben Roethlisberger can't sling it like he used to and his wide receivers are either TikToking or dropping balls. Unfortunately, their defense can only do so much, and due to some costly injuries they aren't in the tip top shape that carried them to 11-0.
Meanwhile, the Colts have come into their own down the stretch, stonewalling teams with stout defense and playing more efficiently on offense since TY Hilton's reemergence. The Colts getting a point in this game essentially makes this a pick 'em, but you've got to love getting a little something to possibly preserve the possibility of a push.
This tweet tells the story of Big Ben's season and the fate of the Steelers hopes for a Super Bowl.
Sorry for spamming the timeline but getting a lot of requests for these. I really should just make an app for this.… https://t.co/P4SYmDR4CW— Computer Cowboy (@Computer Cowboy) 1608666117.0
Jalen Hurts over 232.5 Passing Yards
In two starts, Jalen Hurts has thrown a combined 505 yards. Of course, it was 167 against the Saints and 338 against the Cardinals in a historic effort. That's some real variance, but I think it is safe to say the Cowboys' D is worse than Arizona and New Orleans. That doesn't mean Hurts will put up 400 yards, but if we saw anything last week, it's that Doug Pederson is not afraid to let his rookie QB fire away, taking deep shots all over the field. Even Nick Mullens and CJ Beathard combined for 300 yards through the air against Dallas and I think it's a safe bet Hurts will eclipse that number.
JALEN HURTS 😱 📺: #PHIvsAZ on FOX 📱: NFL app // Yahoo Sports app: https://t.co/4dWJuGxOxQ https://t.co/SvLF9AHTXL— NFL (@NFL) 1608510587.0
JALEN HURTS 😱 📺: #PHIvsAZ on FOX 📱: NFL app // Yahoo Sports app: https://t.co/4dWJuGxOxQ https://t.co/SvLF9AHTXL— NFL (@NFL) 1608510587.0
Justin Herbert celebrates a touchdown in a victory over the Las Vegas Raiders.
Minnesota Vikings -3 over Chicago Bears
This is a week of overwhelming favorites, each with their own particular hook that should scare off any seasoned bettor. Tennessee -9, Tampa Bay -6.5, Indy -7.5, Seattle -6.5, Baltimore -13, LA Rams -17, Cleveland -6.5, and Pittsburgh -14.5? All too rich for my blood, sir. However, something like a passable Minnesota Vikings team, who easily handled the Chicago Bears on Monday night just over a month ago on the road. Justin Jefferson has been a revelation for the offense, filling the hole left by the Stefon Diggs trade, and joining some hallowed company in the record books. I'd look for him to go over 4.5 RECEPTIONS to power a nice win and cover.
Kansas City Chiefs -3 over New Orleans Saints
Earlier this week @AdamSchefter and I talked about Chiefs-Saints being a potential Super Bowl preview. It just got… https://t.co/LcgRKbUkLa— Evan Kaplan (@Evan Kaplan) 1608302832.0
Super Bowl preview? It's possible. The Chiefs feel undeniable in a way that's both terrifying and comforting. You know that they will score and score and score. The Saints have stayed afloat without Drew Brees for a few weeks, which all came to a head against a floundering Philly team, who got a shot of life in the form of Jalen Hurts. If they had a hard time containing or keeping up on offense against him, may I re-introduce you to Patrick Mahomes. Things have gotten more interesting given the announcement that Drew Brees, 11 broken ribs and collapsed lung, will return to his starting position. However, the football gods gave and take away in equal measure. Michael Thomas will be out and that offense seemed to suffer more without the 40 year old signal caller.
Miami Dolphins -1.5 over New England Patriots
This line starting at 2.5 and working it's way down to 1.5 is like manna from heaven. The Patriots have a few extra days to prepare after the Thursday night dismantling by the Rams and the Dolphins are coming off a game against the Chiefs that they kept much closer than they had any right to. (Breaking a few -11.5 and Chief win by 14+ points along the way.) The Miami D is for real, Xavien Howard is an interception machine, and Tua is a born leader. Belichick will find a way to make this a grind it out, ball control, and last possession wins kind of game, but I'm willing to bet the Dolphins kick that game winning field for the win.
Arizona Cardinals/Philadelphia Eagles over 49.5
Jalen Hurts tucks the ball to run, pointing for a block, against the Saints. JOE LAMBERTI/COURIER POST
The Cardinals and Eagles have not been known for their defenses this season, falling outside of the top 10. The Cardinals are 28th in points allowed, the Eagles are 27th in turnovers caused, and each struggles getting opposing offenses off the field. However, the Cardinals offense, powered by Kyler and DeAndre, has been averaging over 30 points a game at home. That feels like a pretty easy floor for them to hit with a much higher potential ceiling. That leaves the Eagles to pick up the slack for two, maybe, three scores, which feels very doable for the reinvigorated Philly team and their quarterback, who loves food analogies.
Russell Wilson scrambles in a win against the Arizona Cardinals.
Browns -2.5 over Eagles
The Browns and Eagles have been equally inept against the spread at 3-6, while Cleveland's record stands at 6-3, Philly has barely scraped together those three wins and a tie. The return of Nick Chubb should bring the offense back to it's early glory. When both Chubb and Kareem Hunt are in the lineup, there hasn't been a better rushing attack in the league with a 209 yard average in those games. If they can control the ball like that against a team, who gave up two rushing TDs to Wayne Gallman last week, I like their odds.
📂 Things You Love to See └📂 Nick Chubb └📂 Week 10 Return https://t.co/jgGqIjX8D7— Cleveland Browns (@Cleveland Browns) 1605652964.0
Dolphins -3.5 over Broncos
Miami will touch down in chilly Denver scorching hot, riding a five game winning streak with five accompanying covers to boot. As I mentioned earlier, they've soared behind a dominant D, as the offense, now under Tua, has risen to their counterpart's excellence.
Unfortunately, the opposite has been true for the Bronco D, who outplayed its offense early in the season, has sunk to match the other side of the ball's mediocrity. The forefront of their issues has been consistently subpar QB play by Drew Lock or Mark Rypien or, I mean, Brett Rypien.
After suffering a set of bruised ribs and tossing four picks against the Raiders, it seemed like a benching could be in the cards for Lock, especially since he split time in practice the past week. He might wish that was the case since he's about to face the fourth most blitz happy team in the league, who bring the heat at a 41.6% clip. They deploy a deadly Cover Zero, which Lock faced against the Chiefs, resulting in a pick-6. He's also completing a measly 31.7% of passes under pressure, ranking only ahead of Dwayne Haskins and Mitch Trubisky, who if you haven't heard aren't starters in the NFL anymore. That's a market inefficiency worth taking advantage of.
Drew Lock was under constant pressure from the Raiders. AP Photo/Isaac Brekken
Taysom Hill under 179.5 Passing Yards/Saints -3.5 over Falcons
This FASCINATES me. Sources leaked mid-week that Taysom Hill would be the starting quarterback for the New Orleans Saints in the absence of Drew Brees against the Falcons and NFL Twitter went OFF. There are a lot of reasons to be skeptical of this move, not the least of which is that Sean Payton refused to confirm these reports taking the Internet by storm in his Friday press conference. He would only go so far as to say a decision has been made.
This seems to imply the possibility of some Jameis Winston packages, not that his play against the 49ers in garbage time was a confidence builder. Hill's primary use in the offense has been as a gadget player, a change of pace player that can execute a RPO, line up wide and catch a TD, or receive a pitch to fire a rocket downfield.
Over the course of his career, we've seen a lot more running and catching than throwing, as evidenced by his 18 passes for 205 yards and a pick in four NFL seasons. There's a simple reason for this, Hill's wonky throwing motion, a certain hitch in his giddyup that can be seen by even the most vision impaired.
When Taysom Hill finally becomes QB1 https://t.co/ZCK5wNv2xF— Warren Sharp (@Warren Sharp) 1588296766.0
This points to a very specific game plan that Sean Payton would be looking to utilize against the Falcons. Atlanta's D has stood up to both passing and rushing in equal measure this season, allowing the second and sixth least yards in each, respectively. However, they're strength comes from rushing the passer through the middle of the line where the Saints remain weakest.
A great way to neutralize that threat is to use your dual threat quarterback to push rushing plays to the edge and hit wide receivers on quick, short passes, which offers the added bonus of getting your QB who last played a full game under center nearly four years ago into a rhythm.
You can also expect a healthy dose of screens and dump offs to Alvin Kamara, the most dynamic safety valve in the league. All of this should amount to a game built on ball control and allowing the Saints' secondary hunt. That reads like a run heavy game from Hill and a victory for New Orleans.
