The Divisional Round of the NFL Playoffs has passed, and we're now down to the remaining four teams that are vying for a Super Bowl championship this season.
HOW ‘BOUT THOSE CHIEEEEFS?!?!? https://t.co/rWt2MIdoP2— Kansas City Chiefs (@Kansas City Chiefs) 1610995798.0
The reigning Super Bowl champion, Kansas City Chiefs, squeaked by with a win over the Cleveland Browns 22-17 even though starting quarterback Patrick Mahomes was knocked out for most of the second half with a concussion. The Chiefs backup QB, Chad Henne, was able to scramble for a first down late in the fourth quarter to seal the victory for his squad.
Aaron Rodgers and the Packers took care of the Rams with relative ease 32-18, as Jared Goff seemed limited while still recovering from a broken thumb on his throwing hand. The league's top defense was unable to slow down the Packers dual threat offense as Rodgers threw for nearly 300 yards and two touchdowns, and Aaron Jones ran for 99 yards and a touchdown.
The Bills were able to limit the Ravens rushing attack and ultimately Lamar Jackson's ability to keep the chains moving. The wind played a factor in this game, forcing both teams to miss out on big passing plays and causing missed field goals. The weather certainly forced this game to be a lower scoring affair than we expected, but the result would have been the same. Bills took this one in a defensive battle 17-3.
Bills fans started donating to Lamar Jackson’s favorite charity overnight after he left the AFC divisional game wit… https://t.co/Dd4wVt0a9N— SportsCenter (@SportsCenter) 1610902091.0
The Saints were not able to defeat Tom Brady's Buccaneers for the third time this season. Sweeping Tampa in their two regular season meetings, the Saints weren't able to get the passing game going in this one, which isn't something we're used to saying. Adding to their lackluster performance, the rumors of Drew Brees' imminent retirement makes this one even tougher to swallow if you're a fan of the Saints. New Orleans only lost 30-20, but they never really felt in the game.
AFC Conference Championship Game
Sunday 1/24/21 at 6:40 PM EST
(2) Buffalo Bills at (1) Kansas City Chiefs -3
We are exactly where we should be at this point in the AFC, with the top two seeds in the conference fighting for the chance to head to the Super Bowl. This matchup is a tale of two very different organizations however. The Chiefs are the reigning, defending, undisputed Super Bowl champions with a super hero quarterback named Patrick Mahomes and an offense with more weapons than the Green Berets.
Everyone has that friend who always comes in way too hot... 😂 @Micah_Hyde | @Taronj11 https://t.co/N5D0ami2P7— Buffalo Bills (@Buffalo Bills) 1611017220.0
Buffalo is a small market team with a grassroots fanbase that hadn't seen a playoff win since the Clinton administration. Their claim to fame is losing four consecutive Super Bowls during the Jim Kelly era, and most recently they have been a team that's always been just good enough to avoid a top draft pick but never good enough to reach the postseason.
Enter Josh Allen, Brandon Beane, and Sean McDermott. In a few short seasons the Bills have gone from lovable losers to upstart dynasty much in the same vein as Patrick Mahomes and the Chiefs. Allen, like Mahomes, put up numbers that should position him as an MVP front-runner. Allen, unlike Mahomes, had to disprove a lot of doubters that had built up over the beginning of his NFL career.
Get you someone who looks at you the way Josh Allen looks at Stefon Diggs 😊 https://t.co/DzID71IYnD— SportsCenter (@SportsCenter) 1610858845.0
Mahomes came out with guns blazing from the start of his career and has never looked back. I don't think it's an exaggeration to say that most think if Mahomes continues this level of play throughout his career, he may retire as the best to ever do it. But that's a long way from now, and right now Mahomes has a formidable opponent on his hands.
At this point, there's not telling what can happen. But the prospect of what can happen has us awaiting anxiously for Sunday night. As long as Patrick Mahomes is cleared to play after sustaining a concussion in the Divisional Round game against Cleveland, the Chiefs will feel confident going in to this one.
Josh Allen. Patrick Mahomes. A matchup we have all been waiting for… 👀 “If he flips the table and takes out the Ch… https://t.co/UOKDzBDOUh— NFL Network (@NFL Network) 1611000000.0
For Buffalo this is new and unexplored territory. We saw Josh Allen against the Texans last season fall on his face in his first playoff experience. Sure he's been great all year, and they just knocked off Lamar Jackson and the Ravens, but will the pressure of being one step away from the Super Bowl be too much for this untested group?
Prediction: Buffalo Bills 38 - Kansas City Chiefs 31
NFC Conference Championship Game
Sunday 1/24/2021 at 3:05 PM EST
(5) Tampa Bay Buccaneers at (1) Green Bay Packers -3.5
Over the course of two decades, we have seen a lot of great quarterbacks, but possibly no two better than a couple of guys that wear number 12. Tom Brady and Aaron Rodgers often feel forgotten about for large portions of their careers because other storylines pulled our attention away from the consistent elite-level of play we have gotten from both of them on an annual basis.
Like anything in our lives that seems so basic and intrinsic to the fabric of life, we take players like Brady and Rodgers for granted because we just expect them to be able to continue throwing 40 touchdowns per season into their 40s (Tom Brady passed for 40 touchdowns in the regular season at the age of 43).
Tom Brady now has more playoff wins than all but five franchises 🤯 https://t.co/4xCxNpOmIM— SportsCenter (@SportsCenter) 1610983750.0
The degree of difficulty to maintaining a level of excellence while teammates change, coaches change, systems change, and defenses constantly game plan to shut you down is unbelievably high. No two quarterbacks (in this writer's opinion) have ever done more with less in regard to weapons at their disposal.
If you look at that statement in a vacuum, then it doesn't make sense as both QBs are playing with possibly their most talented respective groups ever this season. But over the course of their careers, Tom Brady and Aaron Rodgers have elevated their teams year after year and made a lot of players, coaches, and front offices look better than they really were (Bill Belichick NOT included).
The best player in the NFL right now.... @AaronRodgers12. https://t.co/FiyDd8N5tk— Stephen A Smith (@Stephen A Smith) 1610999364.0
The Buccaneers struggled with consistency during the regular season. While clearly one of the best teams in the NFC even while enduring some bad play, the Bucs took some bad L's including a 38-3 loss to the Saints in early November. When at their best however Tampa is an offense that can run the ball and play defense, allowing Tom Brady to make plays when necessary and manage the game when required.
The Packers will need to focus on stopping the Buccaneer's running attack. Leonard Fournette has had over 100 yards from scrimmage and a touchdown in both of Tampa's playoff games so far, and Ronald Jones (who is recovering from injury) chipped in 62 yards on the ground against the Saints last week. Considering how difficult it is to limit the Buccaneers' passing options, Matt LaFleur's best chance to slowing down this offensive attack is to take away the run.
Prediction: Tampa Bay Buccaneers 27 - Green Bay Packers 24
It's been a long and winding road to get here, but after this weekend's playoff games there will only be four teams left vying for a shot to be this year's Super Bowl champions.
Both 6 seeds earned their spots in the Divisional Round as the LA Rams and Cleveland Browns both managed upsets in their Wild Card matchups and represent the reality that anyone that gets to the dance can go home Prom King. The heaviest of hitters await them though as the Rams will face the top seed in the NFC in the form of the Green Bay Packers. The Browns take on an even greater task as they're set to see the reigning Super Bowl champions, the Kansas City Chiefs.
Let's dive in and take a look at each of the four games scheduled for the Divisional Round and give you our take on who's coming out on top!
Saturday 4:35 PM EST
Los Angeles Rams (6) @ Green Bay Packers (1) -6.5
The Rams enter this game in a slightly better spot than they did a week ago as their quarterback, Jared Goff, has had another week to nurse the broken thumb on his throwing hand that he's been recovering from. Goff wanted to start last week, but was held out by Sean McVay. This week McVay will have no other option as John Wolford has been ruled out with the neck injury he sustained in the Rams' Wild Card matchup.
The Rams will need another stellar performance from Cam Akers in their game against Green Bay in order to have a shot to win. Akers racked up 176 yards of total offense and a touchdown against Seattle last week. The Packers were ranked 14th in rushing yards allowed and 16th in rushing touchdowns allowed during the regular season. Akers will be tasked with keeping the chains moving and the Rams defense off the field throughout this game.
Next week, we get Packers vs. Rams No. 1 offense vs. No. 1 defense This is gonna be a fun one https://t.co/uMGOkNiKnL— SB Nation (@SB Nation) 1610326435.0
As for the Packers, Aaron Rodgers will have a full complement of weapons at his disposal, and the connection to Davante Adams has been one of the league's most dangerous all year. It's to be seen how much we will see Aaron Jones used as Jamal Williams and rookie AJ Dillon have begun to get more touches. But if Jones manages to get going early, Matt LaFleur may decide to turn to his in both the run game and passing attack as he is one of the better receivers on the entire roster.
Prediction: Green Bay Packers 41 - Los Angeles Rams 27
Saturday 8:15 PM EST
Baltimore Ravens (5) @ Buffalo Bills (2) -2.5
The Saturday night primetime game is one that we here at FindBet are particularly excited for. We'll get to see two of the best young quarterbacks dual it out to keep their team's hope of representing the AFC alive this postseason. Josh Allen and Lamar Jackson have a lot of similarities in the way they play, and they way they entered the league.
Allen and Jackson both carried a lot of question marks with them as they started their NFL careers, Jackson quickly dispelled many of them after his MVP campaign in 2019, however some have creeped their way back in as he found struggles during this season. Jackson has found his game again down the stretch though, and he appears to be back to the level of play we saw from him during his best moments from last year.
Allen's biggest detractor coming into the league was his accuracy. After seeing him play, his decision-making began to be called into question. After the Bills acquired Stefon Diggs from the Vikings, giving Allen a legitimate number one threat, Allen posted an MVP caliber season this year. Finishing inside the top five in passing yards, passing touchdowns, completion percentage, and QBR, Allen has developed into an elite NFL quarterback.
There are other factors to consider here in determining a winner, mostly who will have success running the ball and controlling pace of play, but when it comes down to it, this is Jackson v Allen 1 in what we expect to be a long running feud in the AFC for years to come.
Prediction: Buffalo Bills 23 - Baltimore Ravens 21
Sunday 3:05 PM EST
Cleveland Browns (6) @ Kansas City Chiefs (1) -10
Even though we as fans are satisfied with the accomplishments of the Browns this year, the Browns themselves are not. Injured Cleveland receiver, Odell Beckham, warned us this week to not be surprised if we see another upset from the Browns against the Chiefs this week.
Baker vs Mahomes. Yes, please. @gmfb @Chiefs @Browns https://t.co/FhfENGK7Kp— Peter Schrager (@Peter Schrager) 1610375570.0
The Browns will have Head Coach Kevin Stefanski back on the sidelines this week and they'll also get some much needed help returning to the secondary in the form of All-Pro Denzel Ward and cornerback Kevin Johnson. The Browns will also hope to see LG Joel Bitonio and RT Jack Conklin in the lineup who were both on the sidelines as the clock ticked down in their win against Pittsburgh.
Cleveland will rely on their strong rushing attack led by Nick Chubb and Kareem Hunt to keep the offense flowing, but don't sleep on Baker Mayfield who is getting the ball out quickly and letting his receivers do work in the open field. The Browns offense has never looked better, but the buzz saw known as the Chiefs await.
"I'm feeling special today, as in upset special. The Browns have been heading North and Patrick Mahomes hasn't play… https://t.co/EZmrFXsSN0— UNDISPUTED (@UNDISPUTED) 1610726822.0
The Chiefs haven't lost a step since becoming world champs last year, if anything they're deeper and more dangerous on offense. Patrick Mahomes under center means that Kansas City is NEVER out of a game. The Chiefs enter this one as serious favorites, currently laying 10 points to Cleveland, but there's an X-factor worth keeping in mind. The Chiefs defensive strength is in their pass rush, but if Cleveland is able to extend drives by running the ball, keeping the ball out of Mahomes' hands and Mayfield hitting quick passes, the Chiefs defensive front will have limited opportunity to affect the game.
Don't mind the spread, we think this will go down to the wire.
Prediction: Kansas City Chiefs 38 - Cleveland Browns 35
Sunday 6:40 PM EST
Tampa Bay Buccaneers (5) @ New Orleans Saints (2) -3
The final game of the weekend pits Tom Brady's Bucs against Drew Brees' Saints. The Bucs had ups and downs throughout the season allowing New Orleans to win the NFC South even through injuries to Brees, Michael Thomas, and Alvin Kamara throughout the season. In the teams' two divisional games in the regular season the Saints swept Tampa, defeating them opening day, and then again in a blowout 38-3 in Week 9.
For the first time ever: @TomBrady vs @drewbrees in the Playoffs. We'll see you this Sunday for @Buccaneers-… https://t.co/9L2iA2avQb— FOX Sports: NFL (@FOX Sports: NFL) 1610375040.0
Both teams are in much different places now than when they last met. The Saints finally have Brees, Thomas, and Kamara healthy and while Brees was out with broken ribs, Taysom Hill filled in giving Sean Payton a few new wrinkles to throw in if he needs to dig deep into the playbook.
The Buccaneers offense is firing at all cylinders now that Antonio Brown has joined the fray. Leonard Fournette and Ronald Jones provide the Tampa backfield two solid options, and we saw Fournette rush for nearly 100 yards in their Wild Card game last week. With so much attention needing to be paid to Mike Evans, Chris Godwin, and Antonio Brown expect Cameron Brate and Rob Gronkowski to be x-factors in this game.
Prediction: New Orleans Saints 28 - Tampa Bay Buccaneers 27
Week 14 (1-3) was not the best week for bettors, so let's get some wins to make up for it on Sunday.
The Colts handled their business in Las Vegas, like an air conditioning repairman in the desert heat. Meanwhile, the Raiders went on to lose their Thursday night game behind a competent Mariota performance, but seem to be melting down, like an ice cream cone in the desert heat. Keep that in mind for possible fade opportunities in the coming weeks.
As for our losses, it was an assortment of disappointments. The Taysom Hill Traveling Show seems to have come to an unceremonious end. Backups starting this late in the year have typically meant variance, so I wasn't so surprised by Jalen Hurts hurting my wallet.
The Chargers actually managed to beat the Falcons somehow. Even more amazing? It came down to the final seconds and Matt Ryan's line looked like this: 21/32, 224 yards, 1 TD, and 3 INTs. Even more amazing? Justin Herbert's line looked like this: 36/44. 243 yards, 2 TDs, and 1 INT. I really can't wrap my head around how they won this game and how Herbert could complete 36 passes WITHOUT him throwing over 281.5 yards. Another classic football mystery for the ages.
Lastly, the Steelers didn't even bother showing up to Buffalo. The drop parade continued for the Pittsburgh wide receivers and Josh Allen has mastered cutting up highly rated defenses.
Minnesota Vikings -3 over Chicago Bears
This is a week of overwhelming favorites, each with their own particular hook that should scare off any seasoned bettor. Tennessee -9, Tampa Bay -6.5, Indy -7.5, Seattle -6.5, Baltimore -13, LA Rams -17, Cleveland -6.5, and Pittsburgh -14.5? All too rich for my blood, sir. However, something like a passable Minnesota Vikings team, who easily handled the Chicago Bears on Monday night just over a month ago on the road. Justin Jefferson has been a revelation for the offense, filling the hole left by the Stefon Diggs trade, and joining some hallowed company in the record books. I'd look for him to go over 4.5 RECEPTIONS to power a nice win and cover.
Kansas City Chiefs -3 over New Orleans Saints
Earlier this week @AdamSchefter and I talked about Chiefs-Saints being a potential Super Bowl preview. It just got… https://t.co/LcgRKbUkLa— Evan Kaplan (@Evan Kaplan) 1608302832.0
Super Bowl preview? It's possible. The Chiefs feel undeniable in a way that's both terrifying and comforting. You know that they will score and score and score. The Saints have stayed afloat without Drew Brees for a few weeks, which all came to a head against a floundering Philly team, who got a shot of life in the form of Jalen Hurts. If they had a hard time containing or keeping up on offense against him, may I re-introduce you to Patrick Mahomes. Things have gotten more interesting given the announcement that Drew Brees, 11 broken ribs and collapsed lung, will return to his starting position. However, the football gods gave and take away in equal measure. Michael Thomas will be out and that offense seemed to suffer more without the 40 year old signal caller.
Miami Dolphins -1.5 over New England Patriots
This line starting at 2.5 and working it's way down to 1.5 is like manna from heaven. The Patriots have a few extra days to prepare after the Thursday night dismantling by the Rams and the Dolphins are coming off a game against the Chiefs that they kept much closer than they had any right to. (Breaking a few -11.5 and Chief win by 14+ points along the way.) The Miami D is for real, Xavien Howard is an interception machine, and Tua is a born leader. Belichick will find a way to make this a grind it out, ball control, and last possession wins kind of game, but I'm willing to bet the Dolphins kick that game winning field for the win.
Arizona Cardinals/Philadelphia Eagles over 49.5
Jalen Hurts tucks the ball to run, pointing for a block, against the Saints. JOE LAMBERTI/COURIER POST
The Cardinals and Eagles have not been known for their defenses this season, falling outside of the top 10. The Cardinals are 28th in points allowed, the Eagles are 27th in turnovers caused, and each struggles getting opposing offenses off the field. However, the Cardinals offense, powered by Kyler and DeAndre, has been averaging over 30 points a game at home. That feels like a pretty easy floor for them to hit with a much higher potential ceiling. That leaves the Eagles to pick up the slack for two, maybe, three scores, which feels very doable for the reinvigorated Philly team and their quarterback, who loves food analogies.