Jayson Tatum, Boston Celtics
This Sunday, we have two huge Conference Semifinal Game 7s on the schedule.
The Celtics won on the road in Game 6 off of Jayson Tatum’s heroics. As a result, the Bucks return to the TD Garden to face the Celtics at 3:30 PM EST. The Phoenix Suns and Dallas Mavericks have won all their home games and lost all their away games in their playoff series. The Mavs’ take on the Phoenix Suns on the road at 8:00 PM EST tonight. Let’s take a look at the best bets of today’s amazing NBA action. The stakes couldn’t be higher for each of these four teams.
Best Bets of the Night
Game: Milwaukee Bucks at Boston Celtics -5 (Series Tied 3-3)
Following a heart-wrenching loss at home in Game 5, the Celtics bounced back in Milwaukee in Game 6. The Bucks’ hopes of closing out the series at home were crushed by Celtics superstar Jayson Tatum who scored 46 points (17-32 FG).
Though Giannis scored 44 (14-30 FG), the Bucks lost Game 6 by 13 points. Boston’s defense held the Bucks to 40.9% shooting from the field and a disastrous 24.1% from downtown. The Bucks only converted seven of their 29 three-point attempts on Friday night. While Giannis Antetokounmpo, Pat Connaughton, and Jrue Holiday played well, they combined for 75 of the Bucks’ 95 total points. The rest of the team only combined for 20 points. Brook Lopez only saw 19 minutes on the floor to score 6 points. The Bucks’ opted to five Bobby Portis more minutes, yet he only scored four points on two-of-eight shooting. Though the Celtics’ as a team combined for a mediocre 43.7% shooting on the night, they hit 17 three-pointers which allowed them to easily outscore the highly inefficient Bucks in Game 6.
Expect the Bucks to play better Sunday afternoon. Still, Ime Udoka's defense has been highly successful against Milwaukee throughout the series. This Celtics’ team is playing with outstanding confidence fueled by the desire to reach the Eastern Conference Finals for the first time since 2018. With the home crowd’s support at the TD Garden tomorrow, Boston should take Game 7 by five or more points.
The Pick: Boston Celtics -5
Game: Dallas Mavericks at Phoenix Suns -6.5 (Series Tied 3-3)
The trend throughout this series has been winning comfortably at home. Each team has won all of their games at home and lost all of their games on the road. In Game 6, the Suns only scored 86 points and played abysmally. Phoenix got into foul trouble early, and finished with 27 personal fouls as a team. As a result, the Mavericks scored 27 points from 36 FT attempts in Game 6. The Suns also had 22 turnovers throughout the game, with 13 of them coming from Devin Booker (8 TOs) and Chris Paul (5 TOs). In contrast, the Mavericks only produced six turnovers throughout the contest. Game 6 was over by the third quarter.
The Suns will certainly play better in Game 7 as they look to secure another ticket to the Western Conference Finals. Nonetheless, this game will not end in a blowout. Expect the Mavericks to lose by six points or less on Sunday.
The Pick: Dallas Mavericks +6.5
NBA Player Props
Game: Dallas Mavericks at Phoenix Suns -6.5 (Series Tied 3-3)
Prop: Reggie Bullock, Over 9.5 Points
After going scoreless in Game 5, Reggie Bullock bounced back in Game 6 to score 19 points (7-15 FG). He knocked down five three-pointers in the game. Bullock has played a crucial role in the Mavericks’ success this postseason. He’ll step up again to easily hit 10+ points in this massive Game 7.
Prop: Devin Booker, Over 28.5 Points
D-Book only scored 19 points (6-17 FG) and shot very inefficiently from the field in Game 6. At home in a must-win Game 7, expect Booker to bounce back for 35+ points. He will be Phoenix’s main scorer.
Luka Doncic, Dallas Mavericks (Left); Devin Booker, Phoenix Suns (Right)
Tonight, we have two pivotal Game 6's on the schedule.
The Miami Heat will look to close out the series against the 76ers on the road while the Dallas Mavericks will try to survive after being blown out in Phoenix in Game 5. Let's take a look at some of tonight's best NBA Playoffs bets and player props.
Please Note: All odds and lines are from FanDuel Sportsbook and were accurate at 3:30 PM EST. Be sure to check for line movement or odd changes.
Best Bets of the Night
Game: Miami Heat at Philadelphia 76ers -2.5 (MIA Leads 3-2)
As expected, the Miami Heat bounced back at home in Game 5 to take a 3-2 lead over the 76ers. Joel Embiid has been playing through an orbital fracture which is clearly affecting him. When competing for a rebound with Miami center Dewayne Dedmon, Dedmon’s hand made contact with Embiid’s face not too severely, but it caused the MVP runner-up significant and visible pain.
The 76ers have a good shot at winning tonight’s game, but Miami’s defense has been the key to their success this series. In Game 5, the 76ers were held to 85 points and 36.5% shooting from the field. In addition, not one player on the 76ers scored more than 17 points in Game 5. Miami's defense was physical but clean as no member of the team recorded more than three personal fouls and the team forced Philly into committing a whopping 15 turnovers. Miami shot poorly from the field in Philadelphia in Game 3 and Game 4 but bounced back in Game 5. Seven members of the Heat produced double-digit points. Ultimately, the Heat finished the night with 120 points, converting 53.6% of their shots taken from the field. Seeing as how the Memphis Grizzlies avoided elimination at home in Game 5 and blew out the Golden State Warriors, I expect the 76ers to bounce back tonight and tie the series up in Game 6. Joel Embiid has to perform to his potential and limit Bam Adebayo's production when on the defensive end of the court. If this happens, the Sixers should win by at least three points and cover the spread.
The Pick: Philadelphia 76ers -2.5 (-110)
Game: Phoenix Suns at Dallas Mavericks +2 (PHX Leads 3-2)
One of the major trends in this Western Conference Semifinal matchup between the Suns and the Mavericks has been the instrumental role of both teams’ home crowds. Both Luka Doncic and Chris Paul were impacted and distracted by loud-mouthed fans in the home crowds. While the words coming out of their mouths are likely condemnable, Doncic and Paul both played significantly worse on the road than they did at home. While the Mavericks struggled to score in Phoenix, Devin Booker had another huge night.
In this series, both teams won all of their home games and lost all of their road games. The changes Jason Kidd made to the Dallas defense did not hold up against the Phoenix Suns in Game 5. In fact, Monty Williams seems to have found some answers for the Mavericks on the defensive end of the floor. As a team, the Mavericks were held to only 80 points on 38% shooting from the field on Tuesday night. Specifically, Dallas struggled from beyond the arc, converting 8-of-32 (25%) of their three-pointers. Nonetheless, the inflated advantage of playing at home in this series will help the Mavericks keep things interesting in Game 6, and perhaps help Dallas bring it back to Phoenix for a Game 7.
The Pick: Dallas Mavericks +2 (-110)
NBA Player Props
Game: Phoenix Suns at Dallas Mavericks +2 (PHX Leads 3-2)
Prop: Reggie Bullock Over 9.5 Points
Reggie Bullock has had a rough couple of games. Bullock played a total of 74 minutes over the last two games of the series yet only scored a combined seven points on 2-11 shooting. He scored those seven points in Game 4 and went scoreless in Game 5. Back at home tonight, expect Reggie to knock down at least two or three three-pointers on his way to a double-digit performance in terms of scoring.
Prop: Devin Booker Over 2.5 Threes
Devin Booker has converted at least three three-pointers in each of his last four outings. Booker has combined for 15-of-27 (61%) shooting from downtown between Game 2 and Game 5. In a crucial Game 6, the Phoenix Suns might lose, but Devin Booker will shoot respectably from the field and knock down at least three threes. It would be quite surprising to see him fall short of 20 points.
Fantasy SP has worked diligently to bring you next-level sports betting analytics, prop betting tools, public betting splits, and so much more! Become an Edge+ member today before the price doubles!
Phoenix Suns
Tonight, we have Game 5s between two Conference Semi-Finals that are all tied up at two games apiece.
Philadelphia managed to win both Games 3 and 4 at home, despite the orbital fracture and the other injury issues affecting Joel Embiid. Tonight, Miami will look to put them in their place. After that, the Suns return to Phoenix where they host Luka Doncic and the Mavericks. Jason Kidd’s defensive adjustments after the first two games of the series have caused nightmares for Chris Paul and Devin Booker who both played inefficiently over the last two games in Dallas. Let’s take a look at tonight’s best NBA Playoffs bets and player props.
Please Note: All odds and lines are from FanDuel Sportsbook and were accurate at 4 PM EST. Be sure to check for line movement or odd changes.
Best Bets of the Night
Game: Philadelphia 76ers at Miami Heat (Series Tied 2-2)
Despite Joel Embiid’s injuries, the big man has managed to lead his team to decisive home victories in Games 3 and 4 to even up the series. While some thought Embiid’s orbital fracture was an indication that the Heat would win this series in about five games, this Eastern Conference Semi-Final couldn’t be closer. One of the main issues for the Heat has been poor shooting from the field. For example, Tyler Herro scored 14 points (5-15 FG) in Game 3, and 11 points (4-12 FG) in Game 4. Over the last two games, Herro has combined for 9-of-27 shooting from the field, which is just not enough. In Games 1 and 2, Herro shot above 50% from the field each and scored at least 18 points. Even though Jimmy Butler scored 33 points (12-22 FG) in Game 3, and an impressive 40 points (13-20 FG) in Game 4, it still wasn’t enough to secure wins on the road against Philly. It was in Game 3 that the Heat played particularly badly as a team. They only scored 79 points (27-77 FG) on an atrocious 35.1% shooting from the field. Philly shot 47.8% from the field in the contest with efficiency from some typically quiet players. Danny Green stood out for a stellar scoring night, scoring 21 points on seven-of-nine shooting from deep (all of his FGs were three-pointers). Tonight, the Heat are in trouble as Kyle Lowry has been ruled out while the team has a long list of players listed as questionable for Game 5.
Though the Heat played better in Game 4, Bam Adebayo and Jimmy Buckets were the only two players who shot above 50% from the field. In fact, Adebayo and Butler combined for 22-of-32 (or 68.8 FG%) shooting from the field while the rest of the team only converted 16-of-50 field goal attempts (32 FG%). Tyler Herro needs to wake up on the offensive end and provide support for Bam and Butler who cannot carry their team every night. Herro has owned up to his inefficiency over the last few games and is poised to turn it around in Game 5. In their return to Miami, the Heat will wake up and secure a strong win before heading back to Philly for Game 6.
The Pick: Miami Heat - 3 (-110)
Game: Dallas Mavericks at Phoenix Suns -6 (Series Tied 2-2)
In this series, the fans have played a huge role. Both Luka Doncic and Chris Paul have gotten into uncomfortable situations with fans who are talking trash (and definitely going too far). Without getting into who is right or wrong (fans or players), the fact is that the home crowds have negatively impacted the performance of the visiting stars. For that reason, expect Luka and the Mavericks to struggle tonight. In addition, Chris Paul has truly played horribly over the last two games. He finished Game 4 with five points and seven assists before fouling out early in the fourth quarter. In Game 3, Dallas’ defense held him to 12 points (5-9 FG) and only four assists. Jason Kidd is due some credit for the coaching adjustments he’s made. Specifically, he’s given Frank Nitlikina significant minutes off the bench over the last two games to contain Devin Booker and Chris Paul. Nitlikina’s wingspan and stellar defensive play have worked great. However, NBA Coach of the Year Monty Williams knows this and will have a game plan to counter Kidd’s successful tactics. Phoenix will bounce back in Game 5 feeding off of the home crowd’s energy. In addition, I suspect Monty Williams will have some answers tonight to counter Jason Kidd's highly effective defense from Games 3 and 4.
The Pick: Phoenix Suns - 6 (-114)
NBA Player Props
Game: Dallas Mavericks at Phoenix Suns -6 (Series Tied 2-2)
Prop: Jae Crowder Over 10.5 Points (-118)
While Jason Kidd has turned on his defense to contain Devin Booker and Chris Paul, he doesn’t have enough bodies to guard every Phoenix Sun. Jae Crowder has produced efficiently throughout this series and has a great chance of hitting at least 11 points in 30+ minutes at home tonight.
Prop: Chris Paul Over 16.5 Points (-106)
Over the last two games, Chris Paul has only recorded a combined 17 points. Defensive changes made by Jason Kidd paid off in Games 3 and 4. Monty Williams and the Suns were not prepared for the changes made by the Mavericks' defense. Upon their return home, they will have answers. Expect at least 20 points from Paul in Phoenix in Game 5.
Fantasy SP has worked diligently to bring you next-level sports betting analytics, prop betting tools, public betting splits, and so much more! Become an Edge+ member today before the price doubles!
Luka Doncic, Dallas Mavericks
Tonight, we have two Conference Semifinal Game 3s.
In the East, the Miami Heat visits the Philadelphia 76ers for Game 3 after winning the first two games of this second-round series by double-digits. The second game of the night will feature the red-hot Chris Paul and the Phoenix Suns who head to Dallas also after winning the first two games of their series at home. Let’s take a look at some of the best bets and player props for both of tonight’s playoff matchups.
Please Note: All odds and lines are from FanDuel Sportsbook and were accurate at 10 AM EST. Be sure to check for line movement or odd changes.
Best Bets of the Night
Game: Miami Heat at Philadelphia 76ers +3 (MIA Leads 2-0)
Joel Embiid has officially been ruled out of Game 3 after having missed Games 1 and 2 due to an orbital fracture he sustained in Game 6 of Philadelphia's first-round series against the Toronto Raptors. As a result, the 76ers absolutely struggled to compete with the Miami Heat in the first two games of this Eastern Conference Semifinal.
Embiid’s absence from the rotation has allowed Miami’s bigs Bam Adebayo more space to dominate down low. In Game 1, Adebayo produced 24 points (8-10 FG), 12 rebounds, four assists, and one block. In Game 2, he similarly dominated in the paint for 23 points (7-11 FG), nine rebounds, and three assists. Without size in the paint, Philly is in trouble, and Miami is targeting their defense where they are weak. While DeAndre Jordan has seen approximately 15 MPG in Games 1 and 2, he simply cannot keep up with Adebayo’s strength, youth, and athleticism. In addition, Miami has been able to win big without their main ball-handler Kyle Lowry. Although he isn’t there to provide the 7.5 assists he averaged this season, Gabe Vincent has played respectably in 30+ MPG throughout his absence while Victor Oladipo’s added minutes allowed him to score 19 points (6-11 FG) in Game 2. Finally, James Harden has not been able to step it up on offense while Embiid has been sidelined. Harden scored just 16 points (5-13 FG) in Game 1, and 20 points (6-15 FG) in Game 2. The superstar scorer really became a play-maker for Philadelphia, averaging 10.5 assists per game since he joined the team. He’s adjusted his role in NBA games from sheer scorer to playmaker but is now being asked to score more with Embiid out. At least through the first two games of the series, Harden has not been able to score more than 20 points and converted well below 40% of his shots taken from the field in each contest. Philadelphia looks lost on the floor without Embiid and has no size in the paint to counter Adebayo or other Miami scorers looking to drive the ball. At the moment, it’s looking like Miami will extend their lead to 3-0 over the 76ers after tomorrow’s game.
The Pick: Miami Heat -3 (-112)
Game: Phoenix Suns at Dallas Mavericks -1 (PHX Leads 2-0)
Luka Doncic was visibly frustrated Wednesday night facing the Suns on the road. In Game 2, Doncic could be seen multiple times responding to heckles and insults from fans who successfully got in his head. Though he had another great offensive outing, he collapsed mentally in the fourth quarter which allowed Chris Paul and the Suns to capitulate. In the fourth quarter, CP3 erupted for 14 points making basket after basket without missing a shot. The Suns’ superstar ultimately had another impressive night finishing with 28 points (11-16 FG).
The Suns quickly extended their lead to 20+ points and the game was over midway through the fourth quarter, in which the Suns scored 40 points to Dallas’ 26. It's also important to know that a nice chunk of the Mavs’ 26 fourth-quarter points came in garbage time. While the Suns should win this series comfortably, the Mavericks will take Game 3. Though Doncic had a great night in Game 2 finishing with 35 points (13-22 FG), he collapsed mentally in the fourth quarter largely due to passionate yet obnoxious Suns fans. Tonight, Luka will score 40+ points with the Dallas crowd by his side. It’s likely that the Mavericks fans will retaliate, and try to affect CP3 and Devin Booker. While Phoenix should comfortably reach the Western Conference Finals, I like the Mavericks to bounce back at home with Luka Doncic feeding off of the Dallas crowd.
The Pick: Dallas Mavericks -1 (-112)
Tonight’s NBA Player Props
Game: Phoenix Suns at Dallas Mavericks -1 (PHX Leads 2-0)
Prop #1: Luka Doncic, Over 7.5 Assists (-130)
Luka Doncic’s scoring O/U is set at 34.5 points for tonight. While there is a good chance he drops over 40 points to bring a victory for the Mavericks in Game 3 at home, him dishing at least eight assists is more realistic. Over the last three games, Doncic has distributed eight, eight, and seven assists respectively. In Game 2, Doncic barely played in the fourth quarter (garbage time) which limited him to 36 minutes. Normally, he plays 40+ MPG in the playoffs. Doncic should hit 10+ assists in Dallas’ return home as they hope to bounce back against the Phoenix Suns.
Prop #2: Maxi Kleber, Over 1.5 Threes (-128)
Maxi Kleber emerged as an important scorer for the Mavericks specifically in Games 2 and 3 of their first-round series against the Utah Jazz. He shot for a combined 12-of-15 from downtown through those two games. Kleber went quiet for the rest of the series, to erupt for five-of-eight shooting from downtown in Game 1 against the Suns. While Kleber missed all three attempts from downtown on Wednesday night, he’s played approximately 25 MPG this postseason and has had multiple games over his last ten where he’s shot well above 60% from downtown. As a result, he has a great chance of knocking down at least two three-pointers tonight against the Suns.
Fantasy SP has worked diligently to bring you next-level sports betting analytics, prop betting tools, public betting splits, and so much more! Become an Edge+ member today before the price doubles!
