Luka Doncic, Dallas Mavericks (Left); Devin Booker, Phoenix Suns (Right)
Tonight, we have two pivotal Game 6's on the schedule.
The Miami Heat will look to close out the series against the 76ers on the road while the Dallas Mavericks will try to survive after being blown out in Phoenix in Game 5. Let's take a look at some of tonight's best NBA Playoffs bets and player props.
Please Note: All odds and lines are from FanDuel Sportsbook and were accurate at 3:30 PM EST. Be sure to check for line movement or odd changes.
Best Bets of the Night
Game: Miami Heat at Philadelphia 76ers -2.5 (MIA Leads 3-2)
As expected, the Miami Heat bounced back at home in Game 5 to take a 3-2 lead over the 76ers. Joel Embiid has been playing through an orbital fracture which is clearly affecting him. When competing for a rebound with Miami center Dewayne Dedmon, Dedmon’s hand made contact with Embiid’s face not too severely, but it caused the MVP runner-up significant and visible pain.
The 76ers have a good shot at winning tonight’s game, but Miami’s defense has been the key to their success this series. In Game 5, the 76ers were held to 85 points and 36.5% shooting from the field. In addition, not one player on the 76ers scored more than 17 points in Game 5. Miami's defense was physical but clean as no member of the team recorded more than three personal fouls and the team forced Philly into committing a whopping 15 turnovers. Miami shot poorly from the field in Philadelphia in Game 3 and Game 4 but bounced back in Game 5. Seven members of the Heat produced double-digit points. Ultimately, the Heat finished the night with 120 points, converting 53.6% of their shots taken from the field. Seeing as how the Memphis Grizzlies avoided elimination at home in Game 5 and blew out the Golden State Warriors, I expect the 76ers to bounce back tonight and tie the series up in Game 6. Joel Embiid has to perform to his potential and limit Bam Adebayo's production when on the defensive end of the court. If this happens, the Sixers should win by at least three points and cover the spread.
The Pick: Philadelphia 76ers -2.5 (-110)
Game: Phoenix Suns at Dallas Mavericks +2 (PHX Leads 3-2)
One of the major trends in this Western Conference Semifinal matchup between the Suns and the Mavericks has been the instrumental role of both teams’ home crowds. Both Luka Doncic and Chris Paul were impacted and distracted by loud-mouthed fans in the home crowds. While the words coming out of their mouths are likely condemnable, Doncic and Paul both played significantly worse on the road than they did at home. While the Mavericks struggled to score in Phoenix, Devin Booker had another huge night.
In this series, both teams won all of their home games and lost all of their road games. The changes Jason Kidd made to the Dallas defense did not hold up against the Phoenix Suns in Game 5. In fact, Monty Williams seems to have found some answers for the Mavericks on the defensive end of the floor. As a team, the Mavericks were held to only 80 points on 38% shooting from the field on Tuesday night. Specifically, Dallas struggled from beyond the arc, converting 8-of-32 (25%) of their three-pointers. Nonetheless, the inflated advantage of playing at home in this series will help the Mavericks keep things interesting in Game 6, and perhaps help Dallas bring it back to Phoenix for a Game 7.
The Pick: Dallas Mavericks +2 (-110)
NBA Player Props
Game: Phoenix Suns at Dallas Mavericks +2 (PHX Leads 3-2)
Prop: Reggie Bullock Over 9.5 Points
Reggie Bullock has had a rough couple of games. Bullock played a total of 74 minutes over the last two games of the series yet only scored a combined seven points on 2-11 shooting. He scored those seven points in Game 4 and went scoreless in Game 5. Back at home tonight, expect Reggie to knock down at least two or three three-pointers on his way to a double-digit performance in terms of scoring.
Prop: Devin Booker Over 2.5 Threes
Devin Booker has converted at least three three-pointers in each of his last four outings. Booker has combined for 15-of-27 (61%) shooting from downtown between Game 2 and Game 5. In a crucial Game 6, the Phoenix Suns might lose, but Devin Booker will shoot respectably from the field and knock down at least three threes. It would be quite surprising to see him fall short of 20 points.
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