Eagles vs. Chiefs Super Bowl 2025 Betting Preview: Can Patrick Mahomes Complete the Three-Peat?
Feb 04 | 2025
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On Feb. 12, 2023, Philadelphia Eagles and Kansas City Chiefs met in Super Bowl LVII in a game that secured Patrick Mahomes’ legacy. At the same time, it seemed to reveal the limits of a Jalen Hurts-led team.
Now, some two years later, the two teams are back in the Super Bowl, and storylines abound. This year, Mahomes and the Chiefs will take on the Eagles in Super Bowl LIX on Feb. 9 in New Orleans.
In the time since Mahomes faced off against the Eagles in Phoenix two years ago, he’s won another Super Bowl. This all but guarantees that his career will end with his enshrinement in the Pro Football Hall of Fame in Canton, Ohio.
The vibes were a bit different in Philadelphia, as the 2023 season ended with an upset loss to the Tampa Bay Buccaneers in the Wild Card Round.
But that’s all ancient history now, as the Eagles are one victory away from winning their second Super Bowl in franchise history.
Here’s what you need to know about the game:
Odds are from FanDuel Sportsbook and are subject to change.
Super Bowl 2025: What To Know
Super Bowl 2025 Schedule, Betting Odds
When: Sunday, Feb. 9; 6:30 p.m. ET (FOX)
Where: Caesars Superdome in New Orleans
Teams: Philadelphia Eagles vs. Kansas City Chiefs
Spread: Kansas City -1.5 (-110)
Moneyline: Kansas City -130; Philadelphia +110
Total: Over/Under 49.5 (-105/-115)
Kansas City’s Keys to Victory
Another year, another dominant regular season for the Kansas City Chiefs. Mahomes wasn’t at the top of his game — he finished the year with a career-low in passing years for a full year along with being tied for his career-low in touchdowns. The Chiefs still jumped out to a 9-0 start this year en route to a 15-2 record that earned them the No. 1 seed in the AFC.
The main non-Mahomes reason for that sparkling record was their dominant defense. Kansas City has two all-world linemen in Chris Jones and George Karlaftis on the interior, a strong secondary led by defensive back Trent McDuffie, and a defensive coordinator in Steve Spagnuolo who is coaching without fear.
There’s no better example than the Chiefs’ stop of Bills quarterback Josh Allen on fourth-and-1 in the AFC Championship.
The Chiefs’ offense isn’t as explosive as it was two years ago when they defeated Philadelphia in the Super Bowl, but their defensive unit is miles better. If Mahomes and the offense find their footing early, then things could get dicey for Philadelphia.
Who Did Kansas City Beat in the 2025 NFL Playoffs?
- Divisional Round: Kansas City Chiefs 23, Houston Texans 14
- AFC Championship: Kansas City Chiefs 32, Buffalo Bills 29
Philadelphia’s Keys to Victory
It may be simplifying things to say that the Eagles’ biggest key to victory is Saquon Barkley, but we’re saying it anyway. After signing a three-year contract with the Eagles in the offseason, the seventh-year pro had a year for the ages, as he rushed for 2,005 yards (becoming only the ninth running back ever to cross that plateau) and broke countless team records.
Barkley’s success made it easier for everyone on the Eagles offense, as quarterback Jalen Hurts had more room to operate out of the play action, while the Eagles defense was given plenty of leads generated by Barkley’s legs.
Although Hurts still isn’t a complete player, he’s still a dangerous dual-threat quarterback who finished the year with over 2,900 passing yards and 630 rushing yards. The Eagles have also mastered the “tush push” quarterback sneak that’s impossible to stop. That’s because most of their drives essentially start as first-and-eight instead of first-and-10.
Like the Chiefs, the Eagles have a strong, balanced defense that can attack in multiple ways. With game-wrecking edge-rusher Abdul Carter, steady linebacker Zack Baun, and ball-hawking defensive backs like Cooper DeJean and Darius Slay, Philadelphia can hold its own on defense.
Who Did Philadelphia Beat in the 2025 NFL Playoffs?
- Wild Card Round: Philadelphia Eagles 22, Green Bay Packers 10
- Divisional Round: Philadelphia Eagles 28, Los Angeles Rams 22
- AFC Championship: Philadelphia Eagles 55, Washington Commanders 23
Our Pick
We’re backing Patrick Mahomes until proven wrong. Don’t get us wrong, the Eagles have a legit shot to nail this game. But Mahomes has proven time and time again that he can get it done in the biggest moments. Whether it’s overcoming an ankle injury (2023) or a deficient receiving corp (2024), he’s shown he can do all that it takes to win.
Additionally, we’re taking Mahomes and the Chiefs to cover the slim 1.5-point spread. Kansas City has covered the spread in three of the four Super Bowls they’ve made under Mahomes (the one time they didn’t was their loss to the Buccaneers and Tom Brady in 2021) and they should win by two or more if they win outright.
Prediction: Kansas City 38, Philadelphia 31
Super Bowl 2025: Best Bets
Patrick Mahomes Over 1.5 touchdown passes (-154)
Mahomes has thrown at least two touchdown passes in all three of Kansas City’s Super Bowl wins, and we’re backing him to do it again. Not only does Mahomes have Travis Kelce to lean on in the red zone, but he’s also benefited recently from the emergence of rookie receiver Xavier Worthy, who’s caught a touchdown pass in three of the last four games he’s played in. Chiefs coach Andy Reid always throws a few wrinkles into his Super Bowl game plan — Mahomes is sure to benefit from that.
Saquon Barkley Over 112.5 rushing yards (-110)
While this is a pretty massive prop, Barkley is on another level right now. He’s cleared this prop four games in a row and should get plenty of volume in this matchup. Don’t let the big number scare you; Barkley is one of one and should clear this prop easily.
Kareem Hunt Anytime Touchdown (+125)
We’re backing another running-back trend here. Despite only joining the team in September, Hunt led the Chiefs in rushing during the regular season and scored in four straight games. If that wasn’t enough, he scored at least one touchdown in all six playoff games that he’s played. Back Hunt to get in the end zone.
Conclusion
While the Eagles had a dominant run to the NFC title, Patrick Mahomes and the Chiefs will end up being too much for them in an explosive and exciting game. Super Bowl 2025 Best Bets Roundup
Spread: Chiefs -1.5
Total: Over 49.5
Prop 1: Patrick Mahomes Over 1.5 touchdown passes (-154)
Prop 2: Saquon Barkley Over 112.5 rushing yards (-110)
Prop 3: Kareem Hunt Anytime Touchdown (+125)
- Divisional Round: Kansas City Chiefs 23, Houston Texans 14
- AFC Championship: Kansas City Chiefs 32, Buffalo Bills 29
Philadelphia’s Keys to Victory
It may be simplifying things to say that the Eagles’ biggest key to victory is Saquon Barkley, but we’re saying it anyway. After signing a three-year contract with the Eagles in the offseason, the seventh-year pro had a year for the ages, as he rushed for 2,005 yards (becoming only the ninth running back ever to cross that plateau) and broke countless team records.
Barkley’s success made it easier for everyone on the Eagles offense, as quarterback Jalen Hurts had more room to operate out of the play action, while the Eagles defense was given plenty of leads generated by Barkley’s legs.
Although Hurts still isn’t a complete player, he’s still a dangerous dual-threat quarterback who finished the year with over 2,900 passing yards and 630 rushing yards. The Eagles have also mastered the “tush push” quarterback sneak that’s impossible to stop. That’s because most of their drives essentially start as first-and-eight instead of first-and-10.
Like the Chiefs, the Eagles have a strong, balanced defense that can attack in multiple ways. With game-wrecking edge-rusher Abdul Carter, steady linebacker Zack Baun, and ball-hawking defensive backs like Cooper DeJean and Darius Slay, Philadelphia can hold its own on defense.
Who Did Philadelphia Beat in the 2025 NFL Playoffs?
- Wild Card Round: Philadelphia Eagles 22, Green Bay Packers 10
- Divisional Round: Philadelphia Eagles 28, Los Angeles Rams 22
- AFC Championship: Philadelphia Eagles 55, Washington Commanders 23
Our Pick
We’re backing Patrick Mahomes until proven wrong. Don’t get us wrong, the Eagles have a legit shot to nail this game. But Mahomes has proven time and time again that he can get it done in the biggest moments. Whether it’s overcoming an ankle injury (2023) or a deficient receiving corp (2024), he’s shown he can do all that it takes to win.
Additionally, we’re taking Mahomes and the Chiefs to cover the slim 1.5-point spread. Kansas City has covered the spread in three of the four Super Bowls they’ve made under Mahomes (the one time they didn’t was their loss to the Buccaneers and Tom Brady in 2021) and they should win by two or more if they win outright.
Prediction: Kansas City 38, Philadelphia 31
Super Bowl 2025: Best Bets
Patrick Mahomes Over 1.5 touchdown passes (-154)
Mahomes has thrown at least two touchdown passes in all three of Kansas City’s Super Bowl wins, and we’re backing him to do it again. Not only does Mahomes have Travis Kelce to lean on in the red zone, but he’s also benefited recently from the emergence of rookie receiver Xavier Worthy, who’s caught a touchdown pass in three of the last four games he’s played in. Chiefs coach Andy Reid always throws a few wrinkles into his Super Bowl game plan — Mahomes is sure to benefit from that.
Saquon Barkley Over 112.5 rushing yards (-110)
While this is a pretty massive prop, Barkley is on another level right now. He’s cleared this prop four games in a row and should get plenty of volume in this matchup. Don’t let the big number scare you; Barkley is one of one and should clear this prop easily.
Kareem Hunt Anytime Touchdown (+125)
We’re backing another running-back trend here. Despite only joining the team in September, Hunt led the Chiefs in rushing during the regular season and scored in four straight games. If that wasn’t enough, he scored at least one touchdown in all six playoff games that he’s played. Back Hunt to get in the end zone.
Conclusion
While the Eagles had a dominant run to the NFC title, Patrick Mahomes and the Chiefs will end up being too much for them in an explosive and exciting game. Super Bowl 2025 Best Bets Roundup
Spread: Chiefs -1.5
Total: Over 49.5
Prop 1: Patrick Mahomes Over 1.5 touchdown passes (-154)
Prop 2: Saquon Barkley Over 112.5 rushing yards (-110)
Prop 3: Kareem Hunt Anytime Touchdown (+125)
