It's another eventful week in the NFL.
Four teams -- the Jets, Falcons, Saints, and 49ers -- are the first teams to get a bye week. After Tom Brady and the Tampa Bay Buccaneers narrowly escaped Thursday Night Football with a 28-22 victory over the Philadelphia Eagles, the reigning Super Bowl champs are the first team with five wins in the league. Who will join them on Sunday? We know that we'll get at least a second five-win team since the 4-1 Ravens are hosting the 4-1 Chargers. That is going to be an epic battle, so let's start with that clash of AFC contenders. Welcome to our Week 6 NFL Best Bets.
Los Angeles Chargers (+3.5) at Baltimore Ravens
Playing on the road is a difficult task for any team, but if any team can escape with a victory, it's Justin Herbert and the Chargers. This isn't the Chargers of the last decade. This team is winning the close battles. Herbert is playing at an MVP level this season and already has led this team to big-time wins over the Kansas City Chiefs and Cleveland Browns -- two of the top teams in the AFC. This L.A. team is deep at the skill positions, can rush the passer, has an improved offensive line and a great young coach. What's not to like?
All that said, Lamar Jackson seems to be playing as he did during his 2019 MVP campaign. Not to mention, Marquise "Hollywood" Brown is actually catching passes. He eclipsed 100 yards last week and scored two touchdowns (including the game-winning catch in overtime). Simply put, this is a tough team to bet against. It did take last-second heroics for the Ravens to beat the winless Lions and a pretty pedestrian Colts team. Overall, Baltimore hasn't faced a test like this yet this season. Take the points and the better overall squad. Chargers may win this game, but if they don't, they are not going to lose by more than a field goal.
PICK: Chargers +3.5
Kansas City Chiefs (-6.5) at Washington Football Team
It's been a tough start to the season for the Chiefs. They had great odds to return to the Super Bowl and are now last in the AFC West heading into Week 16 with a 2-3 record. They desperately need this game. This is a great opportunity for the Chiefs to prove they are still elite by defeating a team that made the postseason last year on the road. The Chiefs are going to turn it around against a Washington defense that is allowing the sixth-most passing yards and second-most passing touchdowns this season. Patrick Mahomes is going to blow up. Tyreek Hill is going to dominate. Travis Kelce is going to continue to provide a steady source of receptions down the middle of the field. As long as the Chiefs' offensive line holds against Chase Young, it's going to be a long day for Washington's defense. Betting on Mahomes to right the ship isn't a really difficult choice.
PICK: Chiefs -6.5
Houston Texans (+9) at Indianapolis Colts
Yes, the Texans are one of the worst teams in the league. Betting on them on the road against a divisional rival might seem crazy at first. However, the Texans are 7-3 against the spread as underdogs in their last 10 games. Plus, the Colts are emotional after completely giving away the game against the Ravens in which they blew a 22-3 lead late in the game. This is going to cause a bit of a hangover in that locker room. When New England suffered a terrible loss against Tom Brady and the Bucs, the Texans managed to cover the spread the following week. Look for history to repeat itself. Texans coach David Culley has Houston playing hard in spite of its lack of talent and quarterback Davis Mills appeared to take a step forward last week against the Pats. Houston has played pretty good pass defense, too. The Texans have allowed only seven passing TDs this season.
PICK: Texans +9
Seattle Seahawks at Pittsburgh Steelers (-5)
Sunday night will be an interesting matchup to watch as Geno Smith will make his first start in four years as the Seahawks travel to Pittsburgh to take on the Steelers. I hate betting on Ben Roethlisberger, but it's hard to envision the Seahawks covering the spread without the services of Russell Wilson. And as much as I think Big Ben should hang up his cleats, you have to give him credit for the way he dominated a solid Broncos defense last week. Roethlisberger looked better than he did earlier in the season and was able to get the ball to his playmakers -- Diontae Johnson, Chase Claypool, and running back Najee Harris. Seattle's defense is one of the worst in the league and their secondary is even worse than their front seven. Look for the Steelers to light up Seattle in the passing game.
PICK: Steelers -5
Arizona Cardinals at Cleveland Browns OVER 49.5
Both of these offenses can put up a lot of points, though they go about it very differently. The Browns are a run-heavy team, and even though they will be without the services of Nick Chubb, Kareem Hunt is more than capable of getting the job done. Meanwhile, Arizona's offense runs through electric quarterback Kyler Murray. Murray is able to move the chains with his legs but he isn't afraid to toss the ball either. He loves getting his guys involved and his weapons are elite in DeAndre Hopkins, Rondale Moore, and Christian Kirk.
The Browns are coming off an 89-point slugest with the Chargers and hit the OVER in their other game against a high-end offense in a 33-29 loss to the Chiefs. Meanwhile, the Cardinals have scored 30-plus points in four of five games this year. Smash the OVER.
PICK: OVER 49.5
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Antonio Gibson bids the Cowboys defense adieu during one of his three touchdown scampers on Thanksgiving.
I knew it was going to happen.
Not only did I fly in the face of the gambling gods and decide to comment on my little bit of good luck, I broke another cardinal rule of betting: Never put money on something just to put money on it.
▪️ 18/23, 233 yards passing, 0 INT ▪️ 51 yards on 10 rushes, 2 touchdowns Not bad for a QB/RB/WR/TE/KR/PR...… https://t.co/D3O0rWXR3j— New Orleans Saints (@New Orleans Saints) 1606079749.0
Look, I couldn't resist trying to get in on some of that Taysom Hill magic. I missed on him in my fantasy leagues, and I couldn't stop myself at just taking the Saints, which did hit by the way(!), I was forced to pick an over/under on the most unknowable of the world's mysteries. Was it possible for Taysom to throw a good ball? Turns out, yes. Turns out, he can get a little more oomph on his throws, which opened up things downfield, even if they weren't always right on the money. Lessons… Noted.
For the game that sent a chill down my spine, the Dolphins lost to the Broncos. If I actually designated a "Lock of the Week," this would've been the "Lock of Lifetime." Tua had been hot, the Miami D had been stout, and the Broncos had been a state of utter disrepair. Just when you think you know football, quoting stats and pulling from trends, it absolutely humbles you into the ground.
As for the Browns covering over the Eagles that was a little bit like betting on paint drying. It was never really in doubt and it wasn't particularly interesting.
Arizona -1.5 over New England
This game has gotten a little bit tighter with each passing day, due to uncertainty regarding the availability of Kyler Murray. I'm betting on this with the assumption that he'll be starting and operating at, hopefully, 80% capacity. The Patriots couldn't handle the dynamic Deshaun Watson a week ago, and I can't imagine things will get any easier against an offense currently firing on all cylinders. The Patriots haven't been "doing their job" recently and rank 21st in rushing yards per game and 28th in DVOA. In a seemingly impossible turn of events, their pass D is actually worse. Meanwhile, the Cardinals can flat out pound the rock. They lead the league in rushing touchdowns, rank second in rushing yards, and average the most yards per carry. Throw in some Vance Joseph defensive wizardry to confuse and bamboozle the undermanned Pats offense and I think 1.5 points is a gimme.
Kansas City -3 over Tampa Bay
I'm back to beating the Tompa Brady Bucs being, ahhhhh, not so good. As the season has worn on, there losses look bad, and their wins look worse. They've managed to beat up on some weaker teams in the league, Packers excepted, and only squeak by middle-of-the-packers like the Chargers and Giants. Against the Rams, Tom looked more his age, and missed on multiple deep throws that could've completely shifted momentum. I could go on and go about how Antonio Brown looks completely lost out there, or how their running game leaves plenty to be desired, or how Mike Evans and Chris Godwin haven't received their share of downfield targets, but really this is still all about Patrick Mahomes. The man who got the ball back with 1:43 against the Raiders, and there wasn't a second of doubt he would take his offense in for a score. It was as if the win was bestowed by a King. While the two high profile QBs prepare to square off for what is almost undoubtedly their last time, the fourth will assuredly cement Mahomes as the true heir to Brady's GOAT throne.
Seattle -5 over Philadelphia
The Seahawks have been a little shakier than we thought they were a month ago, having a bottom of the barrel pass D in a pass happy league will do that for you. Luckily, the Eagles don't have much of a pass offense to speak of with Carson Wentz taking the dreaded step back. Seattle hasn't generated much pressure all year, but the Eagles will be down All-Pro tackle Lane Johnson and his rookie backup Jack Driscoll might be unavailable, too. There's been a total lack of consistency along the line before this news broke, anyways. That's the kind of thing that absolutely helps a defensive line trying to establish their presence.
Kareem Hunt over 1.5 Receptions
Kareem Hunt with the best 9-yard catch you'll see all day https://t.co/uX51xVwMSK— RotoGrinders (@RotoGrinders) 1601235935.0
Hunt has only gone under this number once all season, just last week against the Eagles. Other than he's been a tremendous asset to the Browns through the air, including four touchdowns and a few jaw dropping grabs for anyone, let alone a running back. Meanwhile, the Jaguars are on pace to have the statistically worst defense in team history. As the Browns continue to operate a strong and complimentary backfield, I think it's safe to assume this one could be wrapped up by half time.
Ryan Tannehill attempts to avoid pressure form a stout Colts defense.
For about half the day, things were really looking up.
Week 9 Vibe Check (2-2) - Nailing that the Ravens were going to go into Indy and pull a win out at all costs and them delivering felt absolutely tremendous. I saw them at -1 earlier in the week, but by game time they were +1 at some books and I sincerely hope you got to bet an underdog Ravens team.
Going into the afternoon, something became apparent almost immediately: the Steelers were not covering 14 points. The Cowboys' fourth QB of the season, Garrett Gilbert, proved move effectively than the last two, combined. Not to mention, Big Ben was dealing with an injury most of the game. Here's a live look at his recovery now:
Ben Roethlisberger, feeling great, leaves the practice field three years ago.Jeremy Fowler/ESPN
Davante Parker laid out his case as Tua's top target and easily put up over 4.5 catches. Meanwhile, I need to start following my own advice or, at least, hold a negotiation with whatever deity the Chargers angered.
Seahawks +2.5 over Rams
This line feels a little too reactionary for my tastes. Sure, the Seahawks got run off the field in Buffalo, but that was bound to happen. It was a cross country road game against a passing heavy team a week after blowing out their division rival. The thing everyone's forgetting is how bad the Rams looked pre-bye. Short term memory is important to play sports, but not to bet on them. Russell Wilson has been aerial maestro this season and I'll take him with points over Jared Goff any day of the week and twice this Sunday.
Bengals +7.5 over Steelers
Right before kick off last week, my cousin inquired "-3.5 in the first quarter or -7.5 in the half for the Steelers?" Thinking, hey this Dallas team looks hardly competent enough to tie their own shoelaces, I cracked, "Why not both?" We very quickly learned why not. Even before Ben's injury, his ability to throw the deep ball has diminished in a flash. One of the league's top gunslingers has only completed 31% of his passes beyond 15 yards and gone 1 of 12 in the past two games. While the Pittsburgh D has occupied rarified air, Ben can't quite get as much under his passes as he once could. This seems to have stalled the offense, at times, even with his full assortment of weapons. On the other side, Joe Burrow has consistently looked like the QB of the future that we were all promised. He's kept Cincinnati in just about every ballgame, losing two out of the last three on last second comebacks and beating Tennessee a week ago. Give the young man a touchdown and I'm willing to ride with him.
Dolphins -1.5 over Chargers
We are trying this again, folks! Let's bet against the Chargers for a change and try to win some money. Miami come out ahead in two games against better, non-cursed teams since the Tua takeover, and their sturdy pass D has only gotten better, too. In fact, they're uniquely positioned to handle Herbert's deep ball prowess and LA's backfield is currently undermanned, limiting their ability to attack the most exploitable part of Miami's defense.
@Tua has been making plays and showing why the @MiamiDolphins took him with the 5th pick overall in the draft.… https://t.co/N4i2JmVJWb— NFL Matchup on ESPN (@NFL Matchup on ESPN) 1605315601.0
Brandon Aiyuk over 4.5 Recs
The Niners will now be without every starting skill position player except for Kendrick Bourne from last season year's battle royale in the Superdome, so... Improvement, I guess? One guy who'll be on the field that they didn't have last season or last week will be the burgeoning YAC monster, Aiyuk. After missing Thursday night's Packer beatdown due close contact to Bourne, who appears to have been a COVID false positive, the Niners will be able to implement a game plan built around their rookie receiving sensation.
That's apparently what Shanahan had done before having to pivot his schemes to 5th stringer, Richie James, who promptly had the game of his life, racking up 9 catches and 184 yards. Between Aiyuk's speed making him an even more potent deep threat than James, he's also more likely to be involved in the "run game," meaning little tap passes on jet sweeps that allow him to explode around the edge and into space. If he gets even two of those looks, he's just under halfway home.
