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NBA Playoffs Best Bets of the Night: Monday, May 2

Chris Paul, Phoenix Suns

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As we head into the Conference Semifinals, two Game 1s are on the schedule tonight.

The top seed in the Eastern Conference, the Miami Heat, will host James Harden and the Philadelphia 76ers. The second Game 1 of the night will feature Luka Doncic and the Dallas Mavericks taking on Chris Paul and the Phoenix Suns.

Best Bets of the Night

Game: Philadelphia 76ers at Miami Heat -7.5 (Game 1)

Despite Joel Embiid’s thumb injury and a small scare induced by a Toronto Raptors squad that was fighting for survival, the 76ers kick off their Eastern Conference Semi-Final tonight against the ferocious Miami Heat. Both of these teams are looking like the strongest coming out of the Eastern Conference this postseason (though don't count out the Bucks just because Khris Middleton is hurt as they dominated the Boston Celtics in Game 1 on Sunday). However, Joel Embiid will miss at least the first two games of this series due to a facial fracture and a concussion that the big man sustained in their Game 6 win over the Toronto Raptors.

While he could play through a torn ligament in his thumb, it is out of the question for him to play with such head injuries. For Embiid to miss the first two games of this series is simply devastating for the 76ers. If Embiid has a chance of clearing concussion protocols by Game 3 or 4, the 76ers might be able to survive. However, the Heat are dealing with injury issues of their own. Specifically, Kyle Lowry has been ruled out for Game 1 due to his hamstring injury, while Tyler Herro, Jimmy Butler, and Markieff Morris are all listed as game-time decisions for various reasons ahead of tonight’s game. While Embiid could be out for significant time during the second round and will be playing the rest of the postseason with a torn ligament in his thumb, the Heat have a few very short-term injuries that coach Spoelstra isn’t too worried about. “They feel like they have enough, we feel like we have enough. I guess probably both sides are ready to tip this thing up,” coach Spoelstra said. As it stands at the moment, Philadelphia is in trouble and looks like they will lose their first two second-round games by double digits without Embiid available. Then again, crazier things have occurred. Don't completely count the Sixers out but the Heat should cover the spread tonight.

The Pick: Miami Heat -7.5

Game: Dallas Mavericks at Phoenix Suns -5.5 (Game 1)

Despite New Orleans’ hard work in trying to fend off the Suns, Chris Paul’s perfect night from the field in Game 6 demonstrated why CP3 is more versatile than just a pass-first point guard. The reigning Western Conference champions are the clear-cut favorites in Game 1, especially on their home floor. The truth is that Dallas lacks size in the post which will allow guys like Deandre Ayton and even JaVale McGee to have very efficient nights. Simply put, both of Phoenix’s true centers have the advantage over the Mavs’ bigs Dwight Powell and Maxi Kleber in the paint. That said, Kleber can stretch the floor due to his three-point accuracy. Neither Ayton nor McGee are reliable in defending the perimeter. They are both much more comfortable as defensive anchors down low in the paint. That said, the Suns have tons of momentum after Chris Paul's record-breaking performance when he converted all 14 of his shots in Game 6 against the Pelicans. Ayton also seems to have found his groove in the playoffs. And although Ayton isn't a great perimeter defender, he has the size and strength to dominate on the offensive end of the floor against Powell and Kleber.

In Game 1, we’ll see this mismatch in front of our eyes, and will be one of the main reasons why the Suns are able to pull off the big Game 1 win. Injuries aren’t a factor going into this series. With the exception of Tim Hardaway Jr. for the Mavericks and Dario Saric for the Suns, both teams are entirely healthy and ready to go. This regular season, the Suns and the Mavericks faced off three times and Phoenix won all three contests. To kick off their Western Conference Semifinals on their home floor, the Suns could win by double-digits in Game 1.

The Pick: Phoenix Suns -5.5

NBA Player Props of the Night

Game: Dallas Mavericks at Phoenix Suns -5.5 (Game 1)

Prop: Chris Paul Over 16.5 Points

Jose Alvarado and Herbert Jones are out of the way for Chris Paul now. He’ll have to worry about Dallas’ guards who are primarily excellent offensive players. They certainly will be less focused on smothering CP3 on the court than the New Orleans rookies. Finally, Chris Paul is coming off of a record-setting historical Game 6 performance where he shot a perfect 14-14 from the field to carry the Suns to the Western Conference Semifinals. Even with Devin Booker back in the lineup, expect Paul to drop 17+ points in Game 1.

Prop: Devin Booker Over 2.5 Three-Pointers Made

Devin Booker made a surprise appearance in Game 6 when he was previously expected to miss the remainder of the first-round series due to his hamstring injury. In 32 minutes on the floor in Game 6, D-Book went one-of-six from downtown. However, he shot 50% or above from downtown, converting four-of-eight threes in Game 1. Additionally, he went bonkers in Game 2 with seven three-pointers on just 11 attempts. Tonight, he’ll make at least three buckets from downtown.

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NBA Play-In Games Best Bets: Wednesday, April 13

Trae Young, Atlanta Hawks

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The Brooklyn Nets and the Minnesota Timberwolves earned themselves seventh seeds in their respective conferences last night.

This means that the Cavs and the Clippers will have to await the results of these games tonight to find out who they have to play for the final eighth seed in the East and the West. Tonight the Hornets and the Hawks face-off first followed by the Spurs and the Pelicans.

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Best Bets of the Night

Game: Charlotte Hornets at Atlanta Hawks -5

The Hawks have won as many home games this season as the reigning NBA Champions and the third seed in the East: the Milwaukee Bucks. Indeed, Atlanta managed to win 27 games at home this season compared to a mere 14 losses. Last season, the Hawks demonstrated they could do damage in the postseason by eliminating the Knicks in five quick games. In turn, the Hornets have been a rather mediocre team on the road this season, winning 21 and losing 20 of their 41 away games this season. Both teams finished the regular season winning more than half of their last 10 games, but the Hawks easily have the edge in this contest. Gordon Hayward’s absence from the Hornets' lineup annuls John Collins’ absence from the Hawks lineup going into tonight’s game. With Trae Young being the best player on the court in this matchup, the Hawks should cover the spread. Not to mention, Kevin Huerter, De'Andre Hunter, and Danilo Gallinari (six-of-eight in the regular-season finale from long range), and Young make up one of the best three-point shooting lineups in the league, not to mention Clint Capela's massive mismatch against Mason Plumlee at the center position. Atlanta should roll despite the absences of Lou Williams and John Collins.

The Pick: Atlanta Hawks -5 (-115)

Game: San Antonio Spurs at New Orleans Pelicans -5.5

The Spurs have only lost two more games than the Pelicans this season. But the main difference between both teams is talent versus teamwork. Greg Popovich has been able to turn the Spurs into a serious playoff team in the vast majority of the last 15 years. This is important because the Spurs have a chance of upsetting other postseason teams any given season simply because of how they are coached. Furthermore, the Pelicans have struggled with guard, Devonte’ Graham, all season long. Since leaving Charlotte, his production and efficiency have decreased substantially. This season, he’s producing 11.9 PPG while shooting 36.3% from the field and producing 4.2 assists per game. These are all lower figures than what he produced in his last two years in Charlotte. In 2019, Graham averaged 18.2 PPG on 38.2% from the field. The following season, he averaged 14.8 PPG (decreased minutes because LaMelo Ball was drafted) while shooting 37.7% from the field. Now, the Pelicans have relegated Graham to a sixth-man type of role since acquiring C.J. McCollum from the Portland Trail Blazers. The Pelicans' greatest asset outside of McCollum is Brandon Ingram, who is currently listed as a game-time decision. If he's unable to suit up, the Pelicans are in serious trouble.

Even if Ingram can suit up, the Spurs have developed one of the best point guards in the league in Dejounte Murray. Murray almost averaged a triple-double with 21.1 points, 9.2 assists, and 8.3 rebounds per game, plus 2.0 steals per contest. The Spurs have a deep bench with Tre Jones backing up Murray, Lonnie Walker, and Josh Richardson. San Antonio should out-hustle and out-coach the Pelicans tonight.

The Pick: San Antonio Spurs ML +194

NBA Player Props

Game: Charlotte Hornets at Atlanta Hawks -5

Prop: Trae Young, Over 31.5 Points

Trae Young is averaging 28.4 PPG this season, shooting 46% from the field and 38.2% from downtown. But Ice Trae is a different beast once the regular season is over. Last year, in five games against the Knicks in the first round of the playoffs, Young averaged 29.2 PPG.

The Hornets are 13th in the NBA allowing 100 FPTS per game to opposing guards, meaning Young already has a relatively advantageous matchup heading into this matchup. Altogether, the Hornets are an average defense in the league, but a below average defense against guards. If you consider Charlotte’s defense against guards and how Trae Young stepped up in silencing the Knicks in the first round of last year’s playoffs, on paper there’s a good chance for Young to erupt for 32+ points tonight. Now, this is a high Over/Under for points and somewhat of a 50-50 to hit. Im going with the Over because I’ve seen Trae Young in his last playoff run, and if he shoots just a little bit better than he did last season, he could be hitting 30-35+ on most nights during the postseason (especially without John Collins and if the Hawks make it).

After last night’s play-in games, it would be unwise to suggest Trae Young doesn’t have a huge night. Here are a few big-name guards who went off in each of last night’s two play-in games: Darius Garland and Kyrie Irving both dropped 34 points. D'Angelo Russell tallied 29 points, and Reggie Jackson scored 17 points despite a subpar night from the field (7-of-18). Although Paul George is more of a forward than a guard, he also scored 34 points. The point is that the big-time guards in particular dominated in last night's play-in games. It’s equally impressive that Garland, Irving, and George all scored 34 points last night as it is a coincidence. There are multiple reasons why Trae Young should hit 32 points against Charlotte. But the biggest reason is that it's unwise to bet against Young in the playoffs.

Prop: Clint Capela, Over 12.5 Rebounds

Clint Capela could be one of the most efficient rebounders in the league. This season, he’s averaging 11.9 rebounds per game although he’s only playing 27.6 minutes per contest. The 6’10’’ big man from Geneva has hauled in 11+ rebounds in eight of his last 10 games. He recorded 13+ rebounds in six of the eight games in which he recorded 11+ boards. Additionally, through his last 10 contests, he’s only logged 30+ minutes four times, meaning that he’s rebounding well into double-figures despite playing less than 30 minutes most nights. In a game as pivotal as tonight's matchup, Capela should see closer to 33ish minutes. That should give him sufficient time to dominate the glass over the Hornets' big man, Mason Plumlee, who is not nearly as much of a physical specimen as Capela.

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NBA Best Bets of the Night: Friday, April 8

Trae Young of Atlanta Hawks

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On this last Friday night of the regular season, we have a slate of nine NBA games.

The most interesting matchups on the schedule feature the Hornets vs the Bulls, the Cavaliers vs the Nets, and the Suns vs the Jazz. Let’s jump in.

All odds are accurate as of 3:00 PM EST on Fanduel Sportsbook.

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Best Bets of the Night

Game 1: Charlotte Hornets at Chicago Bulls -2.5

Heading into tonight, both the Chicago Bulls and the Charlotte Hornets are very healthy. The Hornets will only be without Gordon Hayward, who hasn’t played in months. Chicago has lost Lonzo Ball for the season, and currently has Zach Lavine listed as a game-time decision for tonight’s game. This is a tricky pick because the Chicago Bulls have lost their last three home games badly. Will they really lose a fourth and final home game of the regular season against the Charlotte Hornets? Even if Lavine doesn’t play, the Hornets are an easier matchup for the Bulls than the three teams they’ve hosted since Saturday (Bucks, Heat, and Celtics) without Lavine in the lineup. Even if LaVine doesn’t play tonight, I’d truly be shocked if the Bulls lost their fourth consecutive home game. The Hornets are one of the worst teams in the Association facing opposing guards allowing them to produce an average of 101 FPTS per game against them. The 10th seeded Hornets are just one game behind the Hawks in the Eastern Conference standings and will be competing hard tonight in the hopes of taking the higher seed away from Atlanta. Although Chicago has lost their last three consecutive games, all at home, I do not think they will allow the Hornets to embarrass them in their last home game of the season.

The Pick: Chicago Bulls - 2.5 (-110)

Game 2: Cleveland Cavaliers at Brooklyn Nets - 9

The Brooklyn Nets have a switch that they can turn on any time they want. They proved that in that last game after overcoming a 21-point deficit against the embarrassing New York Knicks at Madison Square Garden on Wednesday. Especially now that Kyrie Irving is eligible to play in New York City, the Nets have been looking ferocious. Brooklyn should seal the deal at home tonight, but I think the Cavaliers have a good chance of keeping it somewhat interesting. If Cleveland loses by eight points or less, this bet hits. Jarett Allen remains out and likely will be inactive until the postseason begins. Evan Mobley is listed as a game-time decision for tonight’s game.

The Pick: Cleveland Cavaliers +9 (-112)

Game 3: Phoenix Suns at Utah Jazz - 2

Devin Booker, DeAndre Ayton, Chris Paul, and Jamison Crowder all did not play in a 109-113 road loss to the Los Angeles Clippers on Tuesday night. Tonight, it seems CP3 will be active against the Jazz as he missed the last game due to injury management. In fact, all the starters that were inactive Tuesday were not included in today’s injury report ahead of tonight’s game in Utah. While Booker, Paul, and Ayton could play fewer minutes than the 30+ they get each night, reports suggest they’ll be out on the floor. Utah finds itself two games behind the Dallas Mavericks, currently with the fifth seed in the West. Tonight’s matchup can be seen as a potential playoff series. Both teams will compete tonight. The Jazz’s roster is completely healthy and has a good chance to defend the home floor. The last time the two teams played was February 27, in Phoenix, where Utah sealed a thrilling 118-114 victory. I like the Suns to give the Jazz payback on the road tonight, after being served by Utah at home. Especially with all of Phoenix’s starters active tonight, this is the ML pick of the night.

The Pick: Phoenix Suns ML +118

NBA Player Props of the Night

Game: Atlanta Hawks at Miami Heat +2

Prop 1: Trae Young, Over 3.5 Rebounds (-102)

Trae Young is averaging 3.7 rebounds a game this season. He’s getting four or more rebounds a game approximately every other night. Although Miami is one of the best teams in the East, they are an average team shooting the ball from the field. This means that Atlanta might get more opportunities to catch rebounds than they otherwise might not. For that reason, Ice Trae has a better chance of hitting the over on rebounds tonight than the under.

Prop 2: Danillo Gallinari, Over 1.5 Three-Pointers Made (-200)

Danillo Gallinari is coming off of a huge 26-point (11-19 FG) in a dominant 118-103 victory over the Washington Wizards on Tuesday. In that game, he shot four-of-seven from beyond the arc. This season, the Italian veteran is shooting a respectable 37.5% from beyond the arc. He’s also attempted at least five three-pointers and knocked down at least two of them in four of his last six games. Gallinari will also have a good chance in his matchups tonight, likely against wings Markieff Morris and Duncan Robinson. The way I see things, Miami will be caught sleeping on Gallinari at least once or twice tonight, where he will get multiple open looks from beyond the arc. This to me suggests he will hit at least two three-pointers tonight against the Miami Heat.


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NBA Best Bets of The Night: Tuesday, Mar. 30

Julius Randle, New York Knicks

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The NBA has a stacked schedule of 11 games tonight.

This includes two very contested battles in the East between the top-seeded Miami Heat and the third-seeded Boston Celtics. meanwhile, the New York Knicks will continue to play spoiler as they host the eighth-seeded Charlotte Hornets in a desperate attempt to squeeze into the play-in games. Let’s dive in.

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Game 1: Atlanta Hawks at Oklahoma City Thunder +12.5

OKC is one of the worst teams in the league. To make matters worse, they lost Luguentz Dort and Josh Giddey for the season before shutting down Shai Gilgeous-Alexander. OKC is playing at home with a roster that currently is unrecognizable to most. In contrast, the Hawks have a fully healthy team and are trying to hang on to the No. 10 seed in the East, currently 0.5 games behind the ninth-seeded Hornets, and 1.5 games behind the eighth-seeded Nets. The only player they are currently missing is John Collins who will be out for tonight’s game but is currently DTD. Atlanta has everything to play for while it is undeniably in OKC’s best interest to tank. While the fans won’t like it, Atlanta will beat OKC by more than 13 points tonight on the road.

The Pick: Atlanta Hawks -12.5

Game 2: Orlando Magic at Washington Wizards -3

I did think there was a good chance the Wizards would lose at home last night even though the Bulls were the three-point underdogs. In turn, I expect the Wizards to bounce back and beat the Orlando Magic by 10+ points at home. Orlando has won seven of its 20 total victories this season since February 25. Relatively speaking, Orlando has been playing the best basketball it has all season over the last month. For that reason, the spread for tonight’s game over-values the Magic’s very minimal success over the last month.

The Pick: Washington Wizards -3

Game 3: Miami Heat at Boston Celtics (-5.5)

Boston held the eighth seed in the East at the beginning of January and has climbed its way to third overall in the Eastern Conference at 47-29. Tonight they host the Miami Heat, who have overcome injuries this season to claim the top seed in the East but only remain one game ahead of the Celtics. This game is too close to call because both teams will be fighting for this win like it's a playoff game. This has me inclined to say that it will be a high-scoring game. Both teams average approximately 110.5 points per game and are ranked in the middle of the pack among NBA teams in scoring. A few players could erupt tonight for huge games. I would expect Jayson Tatum, Jaylen Brown, and Jimmy Butler alone to combine for approximately 100 points of scoring tonight. If this holds true, both teams should combine for 214 points (average of 107 points each) in what should be a highly contested Eastern Conference matchup, and potential Eastern Conference Finals preview.

The Pick: Over 213 Total Points

Same Game Parlay of the Night

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Game: Charlotte Hornets at New York Knicks +1.5

Leg 1: Miles Bridges Over 19.5 Points

Miles Bridges has scored at least 24 points in each of his last three games. For him to hit the over tonight, Bridges only needs to score 20. I like this prop especially against the Knicks in the Garden where Bridges erupted for a career-high 38 points on MLK Day. I like his chances to record at least 20 points tonight at the Garden, where the Hornets are fighting to keep the current eight-seed in the East.

Leg 2: Alec Burks Over 14.5 Points

The Knicks are starting to realize that they can do a lot more with Burks when he plays in his natural position of shooting guard. Here are his scoring totals over his last five games: 21, 17, 12, 18, and 27 points. Although Burks is shooting below 40% from the field this season, he has shot more efficiently as of late with Thibedeau making some very late coaching changes. In his element, Burks is a 15-20 point-a-night guy on any team that he plays for. The Knicks will need him to score at least 15 points if they want to compete against Charlotte tonight.

Leg 3: Julias Randle Over 1.5 Threes

Randle remains the Knicks' highest scorer, just 0.1 PPG ahead of RJ Barrett who is currently scoring 20 PPG exactly. Although the Knicks have been winning, Randle hasn’t shot efficiently from the field. Over his last five games, he’s only recorded two or more three-pointers in one contest. However, Randle has taken a minimum of four threes in each of his last five and remains 30.5% from beyond the arc. While he’s been shooting much worse all around this season and has shot more than 10% worse from downtown, Randle can still knock down threes. He shot one of nine from the field in 28 minutes against the Bulls earlier this week even though New York won. I think Randle ends his micro-shooting slump (within the greater slump which has been his season altogether) tonight as the Knicks need him to secure a very important home win against the Charlotte Hornets.

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